Saturday 13 December 2008
Mainland oil giants slide after Goldman review
Shares of Hong Kong-listed mainland oil giants PetroChina, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) and CNOOC, slumped by more than 10 per cent yesterday after Goldman Sachs cut its average oil price forecast for next year, saying crude may drop to US$30 a barrel in the first quarter, and cut its ratings on some oil stocks.
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Mainland oil giants slide after Goldman review
Carol Chan
13 December 2008
Shares of Hong Kong-listed mainland oil giants PetroChina, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) and CNOOC, slumped by more than 10 per cent yesterday after Goldman Sachs cut its average oil price forecast for next year, saying crude may drop to US$30 a barrel in the first quarter, and cut its ratings on some oil stocks.
Goldman, which predicted earlier this year that crude oil could spike as high as US$200 a barrel, yesterday slashed its forecast for 2009 from US$75 to an average of US$45.
Oil prices have fallen about 68 per cent to around US$45 per barrel, from a record high of US$147.27 per barrel in July.
Goldman said there were growing signs that oil markets had entered the bottoming phase of the cycle.
Earlier this month, Merrill Lynch, which put next year’s average oil price at US$50, said a temporary decline in the price of oil price to below US$25 per barrel was possible if the global recession extended to the mainland.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency said in a report that global oil demand would contract by 200,000 barrels per day or 0.2 per cent in 2008, for the first time since 1983. The agency said next year’s growth could be wiped out if the economic slump deepened.
Goldman yesterday lowered its earnings forecasts for the three mainland oil giants for this year by between 2 and 15 per cent. It cut next year’s earnings outlook by between 45 and 50 per cent.
It cut its rating for PetroChina to “sell” from “neutral” and lowered its target share price by 45 per cent to HK$4.10. The firm ranked CNOOC at “neutral” down from “buy” and cut the target price 34 per cent to HK$5.90.
Goldman’s rating for Sinopec remained unchanged at “neutral” for its H shares, but the target price fell 18.5 per cent to HK$4.40.
PetroChina shares slumped as much as 11.43 per cent yesterday before closing down 7.58 per cent at HK$6.71.
CNOOC shares fell 6.12 per cent to HK$7.21, while Sinopec dropped 7.42 per cent to HK$4.99.
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