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Saturday, 29 November 2008
Deflation may return to Japan and spreading to other countries as we head toward zero interest rate scenario
His advice to investors: “Stay away from commodities currencies, look for record low interest rates around the world, and get set for flatter yield curves.”
Can China Adjust to the US Adjustment?
For the past ten years the global balance of payments has been dominated by the trade and investment relationship between China and the US. This relationship is now undergoing a major shift. Most large economies will be affected, and to the extent that their economic policies do not accommodate this shift, they are likely to fail, in much the same way that economic policy failed in the 1930s.
China Won’t Be An Obama Priority
Although lead-coated Chinese toys and the US’s trade deficit with the country did come up during the American presidential election campaign, it is significant that neither Democrat Barack Obama nor Republican John McCain made China a major campaign issue.
China’s Oil/Gas Big Three Seeking Overseas Fire Sales
Accepting cheap oil and gas prices as a gift of the commodities slump, China’s oil and gas giants are moving decisively. PetroChina has signed a contract with Shell for 40 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and Total, in negotiations with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), declared on Wednesday that the two parties would soon finalize their own LNG contract. In Beijing, the China-Russia $25 billion “loan for oil” negotiation, which resumed recently, is moving ahead.
Hong Kong Takes Downturn in its Stride
It looks well-placed to benefit from the shift in world economic power towards the East
Neptune’s HK$4.3b Junket Deal May Collapse on Stock Downturn
Macau gambling junket investor Neptune Group said its HK$4.32 billion deal to launch a massive VIP junket operation at Galaxy Entertainment Group’s StarWorld casino hotel was in danger of collapsing because of the stock market downturn.
SGX Proposes Greater Short-Selling Disclosure
It wants sellers to mark short sales orders; and it’ll publish the total for each stock daily
Reform Plan to Allow Refiners to Set Prices if Crude Below US$80
Beijing plans to relax controls on fuel prices as long as crude oil stays below US$130 a barrel and ease curbs on refiners under a long-awaited reform plan, a source said.
Beijing Mulls Financial Boost for HK
Central bank studying measures to help city tackle financial crisis, strengthen hub role
Gome Saga Shows We Have Not Progressed on Disclosure
Making it an offence to keep quiet will give regulators not only the muscle to squeeze more out from companies but also a formal ground to seek help from mainland authorities in gathering and verifying information.
Stimulus Package Cold Comfort for Small Firms
Small businesses are facing a tough winter, helped only a little by the government’s 4 trillion yuan (HK$4.54 trillion) stimulus package, Li Zibin, chairman of the China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, said.
OCBC Takes Anthony Soh to Court
OCBC Bank sued doctor-turned-investor Anthony Soh in the High Court yesterday for allegedly misleading the bank into acting for him in his aborted attempt to buy over listed Jade Technologies in March this year.
Bottoming Markets? The Data is Piling Up
Volatility is easing, sentiment indicators suggest investors are not getting gloomier
Reform Plan to Allow Refiners to Set Prices if Crude Below US$80
Beijing plans to relax controls on fuel prices as long as crude oil stays below US$130 a barrel and ease curbs on refiners under a long-awaited reform plan, a source said.
Mutual Funds Raise Stock Weighting
Mainland mutual funds have raised recommended allocations to stocks after the government’s announcement this month of a massive economic stimulus plan, a Reuters poll of fund managers shows.
Chinese Developers Urged to Publicise True Costs
A senior mainland housing official yesterday urged the country’s cash-strapped developers to publicise their true profit margins in a bid to convince people the market has hit bottom.
Gome Reshuffles Amid Probe into Chairman
Don’t Pin Hopes Too High on China
The answers are complicated but may not be what the world wants to hear or be in the best global interests.
Further NT$740m Linked to Chens
Keeping the Nation Poor
As we digest the implications of China’s 4 trillion yuan (HK$4.55 trillion) stimulus plan, it is intriguing to ponder why Beijing chooses infrastructure, buildings and big projects every time growth needs a boost. Should, or can, China achieve long-term growth only by adding physical structures? If and when the time comes to change course, will the existing political-economic institutions accommodate such a transformation?
The Deadly Dirty D-Words: “Deflation”, “Debt Deflation” and “Defaults”
The Deadly Dirty D-Words: “Deflation”, “Debt Deflation” and “Defaults”. And How Central Banks Will Have to Resort to “Crazy” Policies as We Have Reached Such Bermuda Triangle of a “Liquidity Trap”
Friday, 28 November 2008
Half of Commodity Shipping Lines Seen Breaching Loan Terms
Half of commodity shipping lines are likely to breach loan terms in the months ahead as rental rates and vessel prices fall, according to Nordea Bank AB, the world’s largest arranger of loans to the industry.
Hedge Funds Stop Redemption
Satellite Asset Management LP, founded by former employees of billionaire George Soros, stopped client withdrawals from its three largest hedge funds and eliminated more than 30 jobs after losses reduced the firm’s assets to about $4 billion this year.
Iceberg Mystery Cracked
France Returns Matisse Work
Why Are the Chinese Skinny?
What makes Chinese people so skinny? Is it all due to genes? A more active lifestyle?
Construction Industry Woes
Many of the 2,000 firms in DP Info’s study have high debt, little cash and weak profitability
‘We’ll Fight to Death’
PAD Braces for Police Assault
What might 2009 hold for stocks?
It’s almost year-end and it is customary at this time to try to forecast what next year might hold for the stock market. In the past, this was usually done in the final week of December but given the huge uncertainty which confronts economies everywhere, it’s safe to say that a view given today isn’t going to be substantially different from a view delivered in five weeks’ time.
China’s Tallest Ever Tower
Construction is set to begin on Saturday on a 632-metre Chinese scroll-shaped glass tower that will be the country’s tallest, in what officials are calling a symbol of hope in a time of financial crisis.
Chen Ends Hunger Strike
Thursday, 27 November 2008
Mainland deposit insurance scheme expected to be launched next year
A plan to insure bank deposits on the mainland has been submitted to the State Council and the scheme is expected to be launched next year, according to a central bank official.
Cheung Kong Property Boss Sees No Need to Slash HK Prices
Cheung Kong (Holdings), Asia’s top property developer by market value, said its Hong Kong flat sales so far this year stood at a record high of US$3.6 billion and a limited supply of new flats should keep recent price falls in check.
SHKP to offer luxury project at steep discount
Sun Hung Kai Properties plans to offer its luxury low-density residential project in Sha Tin at 35 per cent less than a nearby project, reflecting growing fears of a slump that will see volumes this month plunge to a 20-year low.
Gome Chairman’s Case Highlights China's Equity Risks
Mystery surrounding a police investigation of the mainland’s richest man over alleged stock price manipulation has highlighted the risks to shareholders from murky disclosure rules for mainland companies.
Kloppers ends up with bloody nose as BHP bid for Rio fails
Chief scraps deal amid regulatory hurdles and falling prices
New Yorkers Fume at Citigroup Bailout
“It is wasteful, very wasteful,” said retiree William Dwyer, 70.
JP Morgan Clobbers Competition in Scramble for Mainland M&A Deals
Now the tables are turned. For the first time since 2003, JP Morgan leads all foreign banks in advising on mergers and acquisitions involving Chinese companies.
British Stockbroker Jailed for Laundering
A British stockbroker was jailed yesterday for laundering about HK$680 million allegedly generated from a “boiler-room” fraud operation based in Britain.
Half ‘Hush Money’ Journalists Were Fake
Half the dozens of so-called journalists demanding hush money from a mainland coal mine after a fatal accident in September were fake, state media said on Thursday.
Sacked toy workers clash with police at factory over payouts
HK Banks May Violate US Laws with Minibond Buy-Back
However, sources close to the Hong Kong Association of Banks told the Sing Tao Daily its legal consultant had found that the plan could violate US laws that prohibit anyone other than Lehman’s liquidator from handle its assets.
A Modern Parable
If this weren’t so true, it might actually be funny.
Parable: short story that teaches a moral lesson.
Parable: short story that teaches a moral lesson.
PBoC Cuts to the Deep and Quick
A substantial interest rate cut would reduce corporate financing and liability costs, in particular for SMEs and state-owned enterprises(SOE).
Chinese Rate Cut – GS View
We continue to see long-term values from Chinese stocks but we would be hesitant to chase the potential market rally if it trades up meaningfully on this as both macro and corporate earnings growth are likely to face more downward pressure ahead amid a worsening global growth outlook in ‘09.
As BHP-Rio Deal Dies, Chinese Steelmakers Breathe Easier
Dramatic changes in the iron ore market and opposition from the European Union’s competition authorities have forced BHP Billiton to abort its plan to form the world’s largest iron ore mining giant with a hostile takeover of it fellow Australian and rival Rio Tinto.
Evolution Proves Key to Survival of China’s Shop Front
Canton Fair grew from a melting pot of traders into a grand bazaar
Analysts say China Flexing Muscle with Europe over Tibet
China’s unprecedented decision to cancel a summit with the European Union over Tibet shows an increasing willingness for Beijing to flex its ever-strengthening global muscle, analysts said on Thursday.
HK Actress Michelle Reis’ wedding costs $20 million
My Story by Mossie
"I hope to share my lessons with you. Hopefully, you will not make the same mistakes I did."
"What I have shared in these pages are just my lessons from my journey from losses to recovery. I hope they have been useful to guide as you navigate your way through these treacherous waters called the Stock Market."
"What I have shared in these pages are just my lessons from my journey from losses to recovery. I hope they have been useful to guide as you navigate your way through these treacherous waters called the Stock Market."
Chen’s Family to Return Swiss Cash
The family of Taiwan’s former president Chen Shui-bian on Wednesday agreed to send back here the 700 million Taiwan dollars (S$31.8 million) found in their Swiss bank accounts, prosecutors said.
Beijing Cash Injections to Shore Up SOEs
The Chinese government is set to inject 54.78 billion yuan into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to help them weather the present financial storms. Most of the money will go to the aviation and electric power industries as they are suffering the largest losses among all industries this year.
U.S. Needs New China Plan, Former Commander Says
“There were people who warned me that you’d better get ready for the shoot ‘em up here, because sooner or later we’re going be at war with China,” recalled the commander, William Fallon, a retired navy admiral. “I don’t think that’s where we want to go. And so I set about challenging all the assumptions.”
Wednesday, 26 November 2008
World's Most Expensive Burger
Price Tag: US$200
World's most expensive burger at a Burger King in London. Ingredients include Wagyu Beef, Whit Truffle, Iranian Saffron & white truffle dusted bun, Pata Negra Slices, Cristal Champagne onion Straws, 25-year-old Balsamic vinegar, Lambs lettuce, Pink Himalayan rock salt and Hollandaise shallot mayonnaise.
China Slashes Lending Rate to Support Slowing Economy
China’s central bank slashed its key lending rate by the most in 11 years, giving support to a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) spending plan aimed at sustaining growth in the world’s fourth-largest economy.
Ignore the Stock Market Until February
China to Cut Benchmark Lending, Deposit Rates by 108 BPS
China said Wednesday it will cut its benchmark deposit and lending rates by 108 basis points to foster steady credit growth as part of its “moderately loose” monetary policy.
MAS Tells Bright World of Possible Rule Breach
Speculation of link to trading pattern surrounding offer
A Brief Reprieve or Something More?
There are signs of a short-term rebound, but the big challenge is to sustain it
Smell Fear in the Air With Wild Stock Market Swings
The stock market is nothing if not a psychological barometer.
China’s Industrial Muscle Weakened by Slowdown
It is happening faster than most anyone predicted: China’s economy, long the world’s fastest-growing major economy, is slowing down. Economists are forecasting that after growing nearly 12 percent last year, China’s economy could slow to 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter of this year – a stunning retreat for a country accustomed to boom times.
Fugitive Banker Freed After Grilling
Witness expected to help prosecutors in case against Chen and wife
Officer Accused of Hiring Men to Beat Prosecutor
A senior police officer is accused of hiring gangsters to beat up a prosecutor after he reopened investigations this year into an eight-year-old case in which five subordinates were accused of torturing a murder suspect to death during questioning, a report said yesterday.
Perspective Shifts on Foreign Investment Amid Growing Nationalist Sentiment
Despite the great contribution it has made to the mainland’s economic growth, exports and employment, foreign investment has been the cause of increasing criticism for its negative impact on the country.
Rumour Resurfaces That China Will Set Up Market Stabilisation Fund
Rumours have resurfaced again that the Chinese government will inject up to Rmb400b through a market stabilisation fund to shore up the stock markets. The speculation came as a mainland newspaper report, The Economic Observer, said the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will submit the proposal to the Central Economic Work Conference due to be held in early December.
HSI +2.5%; Likely Futures-Related Buying – Phillip
0225 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +2.5% at 13,197.90 with gains likely in part driven by futures-related buying ahead of November contract expiry tomorrow, says YK Chan of Phillip Asset Management; "too many people have turned bearish - that usually sets the stage for short-squeezing." Despite gains, volume modest at HK$4.90 billion so far. Supporting short-squeezing theory is strength in top 2 caps: China Mobile (0941.HK) +2.3% at HK$68.00, HSBC (0005.HK) +3.6% at HK$79.26 - contributing more than one-third of HSI's rise. If HSI gains are due to technical factors more than anything else, near-term upside may be limited; 20-day moving average near 13,500 likely near-term cap. (RLI)
Credit Card Defaulters’ Numbers Rise
More could get caught in debt trap if bankruptcy, jobless figures go up
Singapore Market May Face Rougher Ride Than 97-98
Singapore stocks may be cheap, but they’re probably still not cheap enough.
I do... agree to abide by these rules
Philip Bowring: China Can’t Help
Do not expect that China can - at least in the short term - do much to offset the recession spreading through the global economy. This is not to suggest that China will deliberately shirk its responsibilities as a global player, nor is it intended to be gloomy about the country’s longer-term prospects. But inflated expectations of China’s potential to create demand for the rest of the world are liable to bring disappointment, and thus add to friction over trade imbalances, notably in its surpluses with the United States and Europe.
Did Britain Just Sell Tibet?
The financial crisis is going to do more than increase unemployment, bankruptcy and homelessness. It is also likely to reshape international alignments, sometimes in ways that we would not expect.
Fed Announces $800 Billion Effort to Unfreeze Credit
The Federal Reserve said that it would buy up to $600 billion in mortgage-backed assets from the government-sponsored mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The agency would also buy up to $100 billion in debt directly from the companies and up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
Protesters Force Bangkok Airport to Shut Down
Pawnshops in China making a comeback amid economic downturn
Is Goldman Sachs Running a Derivatives Casino?
The designer of derivatives in Goldman Sachs is perhaps a casino master. In this gamble of oil prices, it seems that one Chinese firm hit the tables at Vegas and left without his shirt.
CNOOC to Explore Deeps of the South China Sea
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is planning to invest 200 billion yuan on oil and gas exploration in South China Sea in the next 10 years or so, and establish production capacity with annual output of 50 million tons, parallel to the Daqing Oil Field, China’s biggest oil field.
SOEs, Private Firms Set Acquisition Targets Overseas
It’s time for Chinese firms to go out and take stakes from real assets in American and Europe. Manufacturing is and will be China’s foundation for the foreseeable future, but Chinese firms lack skills and expertise that abound in the West. But now Western firms face a sore lack of hard cash, which Chinese companies can find in abundance. It would seem to be a marriage made in heaven.
Defending Rule of Law in a Taipei Court
The handcuffing of Taiwan’s Chen Shui-bian reflected the power and effectiveness of rule of law – as well as its potential
Crisis Pushes Young Chinese Graduates Towards the Public Sector
The public sector, long shunned by Chinese graduates looking to make their fortune in business, is once again in favour amid fears about the impact of the economic crisis on job prospects.
A Third of China’s Yellow River is Unsafe, Study Says
A third of China’s fabled Yellow River, which supplies water to millions of people in the country’s north, is heavily polluted by industrial waste and unsafe for any use, according to new scientific data.
JP Morgan Says Worst of the Global Financial Crisis May Be Over
And it said it is time to start looking for bargains in Chinese shares.
Tuesday, 25 November 2008
Rio Tinto shares crash after BHP abandons bid
The price of shares in Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto plunged by about 38 per cent in trading on Tuesday after BHP Billiton abandoned a hostile takeover bid for its rival.
Russian Analyst Predicts Decline and Breakup of U.S.
World Bank Cuts China Growth Forecast for 2009
The World Bank cut its 2009 growth forecast for China on Tuesday, projecting the slowest pace of expansion since 1990 as the impact of global financial turmoil intensifies and the real estate sector remains in the doldrums.
Strong Rebound Coming in Next 3 Months: Dr. Doom
The sheer amount of money governments are pumping into the financial system will eventually lead to a very strong rally in beaten-down assets, investor Marc Faber said on CNBC Friday.
China Stimulus
Let me just further the idea that China is committed to supporting economic growth in 2009-2010. While 25-40% of the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package that was announced a few weeks ago will be “new,” the 10 trillion stimulus that has been announced by the provincial governments will more than compensate for the “shortfall” in Stimplan 1, as that required the provinces to pay for about 2.6 trillion of the plan. So, there is about 7.5 trillion yuan in Stimplan 2, of which, even if only 1/3 is new, makes up for the shortfall we all believed re Stimplan 1. The important thing to not forget is that (1) China is committed to grow its economy pretty quickly out of the recession, (2) virtually all is not export related and (3) there will be a lost of “waste,” even if that is still spending.
Monday, 24 November 2008
Americans’ ‘Hypocrisy’ in Auto Rescue Spurs Me-Too Trading Ire
A U.S.-triggered spate of global carmaker-bailout proposals may spark trade disputes over whether the Americans are unfairly trying to subsidize their industry or just making up for state aid that foreign rivals already enjoy.
Man Fined $15,000 for Offering to ‘Take Care’ of Traffic Cop
Why become my enemy when you can be my friend?
China Eyes Shadowy Moneylenders to Help Small Firms
China is preparing to bring the country’s extensive underground banking system in from the cold as part of attempts to boost lending to small businesses hit hard by the credit crunch and economic downturn.
U.S. Auto Industry’s Troubles May Touch the Financial Sector
To the long list of troubles plaguing the financial industry, add three big ones – make that Big Three ones.
Brokers Pare Forecasts, Ratings Further
Major downgrades for financial sector with risks of higher provisions, weaker fees, poor equities turnover
Encouraging to See More Experts Eat Humble Pie
As a result, the advice remains the same as it has been for months now - because the worst of the economic numbers has yet to hit the market, patience is surely a virtue.
Taiwanese Banker Facing Chen Fraud Allegations
A fugitive banker returned to Taiwan on Monday and immediately faced questioning over a money laundering probe that has seen former president Chen Shui-bian locked up, a television report said.
Beijing Authorities May Buy into Troubled Housing Projects
Beijing’s municipal government plans to buy troubled private housing projects and convert them into cheaper housing.
Private Equity Funds Worry Over Pledges
The financial crisis is having its domino effect on the mainland private equity industry. Many private equity firms worried that the money they raised earlier would not materialise, as their investors have lost billions in other investments.
Gome Boss Held Over Alleged Share Price Manipulation of Brother’s Firm
Chinese GP Likely to Stay
The Chinese Grand Prix is likely to continue in Shanghai beyond 2010 as the city continues its drive to become one of the great sporting hubs of the world, according to the organisers of the Formula One race.
Bernanke Erred on Fallout
Federal (the Fed) Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledges he was wrong in believing that there would be limited fallout to financial markets from risky mortgages that soured after the housing market’s collapse.
12 Bankrupts to Face Travel Charges
Gradual rise in number going abroad without seeking permission first
Citi Gets US$20b Government Aid
The US government unveiled a plan on Sunday to rescue troubled Citigroup, including taking a US$20 billion (S$30.6 billion) stake in the firm whose stock has been hammered on worries about its financial health.
Texas Pastor’s Advice for Better Marriage: More Sex, More Often
“Today we’re beginning this sexperiment, seven days of sex,” he said, with his characteristic mix of humour, showmanship and Scripture. “How to move from whining about the economy to whoopee!”
U.S. Plan to Aid Citigroup Said to Be Near Approval
Federal regulators were nearing approval of a radical plan to stabilize Citigroup on Sunday in which the government would soak up tens of billions of dollars in losses at the struggling bank, according to people briefed on the discussions.
Chinese GOME Tycoon Detained
China’s second-richest person, who made his fortune building up the nation’s largest home appliance chain, has been detained on suspicion of market manipulation, state media reported on Monday.
Remisier Fooled by New Client’s Posh Appearance
Broker to pay $350,000 in stock market loss after client, who drove Jaguar and lived in condo, vanishes
The Party May Be Over in Singapore
But now with job losses spreading to Asia and the city state in recession, the party could very soon be over.
Lukewarm Response to Discounted Luxury Cars
More price cuts on luxury cars may be on the way after an unprecedented 48-hour bargain sale on brands such as Ferrari and Rolls-Royce attracted only lukewarm reaction from high-income earners.
China New Guidelines for Stimulus Spending
The central government has released guidelines on preventing waste and corruption as it rolls out its economic stimulus plan, as public concern over the government’s handling of taxpayers’ money increases.
Economic Giant Shandong Reports Job Losses
Shandong province, an economic powerhouse, yesterday reported job losses for the first time in years as the nation increasingly feels the pinch of the global economic meltdown.
Worst of financial crisis yet to come, says IMF chief economist
The IMF’s chief economist has warned that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010, a report said Saturday.
Plunging Stocks Leave Analysts Bewildered
Analysts have cut profit estimates for 48 per cent of the stocks they cover worldwide, the most in at least 15 years, and more downgrades are likely as the economy slows.
Market Mood
Since central banks need to cut rates continually to boost their economies and the deflationary risk is becoming bigger, I reckon the stock market may not escape from the bear market any time soon, and bonds will definitely be a more attractive investment.
Sunday, 23 November 2008
Patchy Prospects for Sewing Machine Giant
A local government and private lenders are trying to stitch up China’s Feiyue Group. But creditors want their money
Fast-Track Rescues for Shaoxing’s Failures
Textile companies that ran short of cash, borrowed too much and expanded too fast are still getting bailouts in Shaoxing.
Shanghai Seeks New Platform for Growth
Shanghai’s government launched eight measures to implement the central government’s economic stimulus package.
Across France, Cafe Owners Are Suffering
In Paris, Mr. Picolet, of Aux Amis du Beaujolais, said simply: “The bar-cafes? They’re finished. Twenty years ago, people would go in the morning before work for a coffee and a cigarette. And now, it’s over. Young people don’t drink during the day, and when they drink, they drink to get wasted. Smoking is forbidden and they eat en route, with coffee in a paper cup. They smoke and drink at home.”
How Workers Get Sacked Can Dent a Firm’s Image
Companies that sack staff without showing them proper respect risk damaging not only their employees’ health and self-esteem but also their own corporate image, a human resources specialist has warned.
A Little Large? You Can Still Look Good
In Upside to Crisis, IPO Drought Spares Forests
The deepening gloom gripping global stock markets does have at a bright side - fewer initial public offerings means fewer prospectuses are printed, sparing tens of thousands of trees.
If Stocks Are So 'Cheap,' Why Are They Still Going Down?
Roque predicts the S&P will hit 680 and the Dow the high 6000s before this downturn is over.
China’s Stimulus Package: Inspection Goes along with Investment to Prevent Corruption
With the announcement of the central government’s 4 trillion yuan investment plan, 24 inspection and supervision teams have been dispatched to conduct project oversight in order to prevent waste and corruption.
Fewer Expats in Singapore
Moving firms say more are seeking their services to relocate out of Singapore
Next Victim of Finance Crisis? The Mistress
An interesting equation emerged from the survey: Time + Affair = fewer gifts.
China’s Government Defends Vitamin Cartel
A U.S. price-fixing lawsuit against Chinese vitamin makers will continue despite a ‘foreign sovereignty’ argument.
BYD to Roll out Hybrid Car in December
China’s first mass-produced hybrid car will hit the lots on December 15, said BYD’s president and CEO Wang Chuanfu.
China Clears Hurdle for Auto Leasing Firms
Concerns over slower car sales prompted China’s top banking regulator to lift caps on auto leasing businesses.
Economy, Not Rights, Rules the New China-US World
Now it’s Barack Obama’s turn to deal with the China challenge, and this time, it’s all about the money.
Geithner at Treasury: An Insider to the Rescue?
Will Citigroup Survive? Four Possible Scenarios
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