The US economic meltdown will not only have financial implications for the island state but will also impinge on its demographic strategy.
One of the largest immigration waves in modern Singapore history may be brought to a halt by a severe economic downturn that could last for years.
The process could even be reversed, at least temporarily, if the job shedding becomes serious over the next two years, throwing back the republic’s ambition for a bigger population.
Many of the 1.2 million foreign workers may be forced to leave the city, and government officials have said that, if need be, foreigners will among the first to be retrenched.
Hundreds of jobless Burmese migrants have already returned home from Singapore, reported a Yangon newspaper, The Irrawady. It said higher-skilled workers like engineers and technicians are unable to find jobs.
Malaysian officials are also warning their citizens working here to be prepared for the worst.
If permanent residents (PRs) are included, foreigners make up some 35% of Singapore’s 4.84 million population. Many of them had flocked here to take advantage of Singapore’s long booming economy, which grew by 7.5% a year during 2002-2007.
Then the US financial meltdown hit the city, exporting what is shaping up to be one of its worst recessions.
The size of the expected exodus is not known; it depends on how severe and how long it will last. For now, no one really knows.
Analysts believe with an open economy that is heavily dependent on the ailing US, Singapore may be the worst hit country in Asia.
The impact could take on a historical perspective.
It will end, at least temporarily, the world’s biggest immigration inflow into any country during the past 20 years on a per capita basis.
Historically, Singapore is a migrant society with several waves of mass arrivals since it was discovered by Sir Stamford Raffles in 1819.
The current wave follows the previous one in the 40s and 50s when huge numbers of migrants flocked here from China, India and Indonesia to escape from wars, natural disasters or poverty. Singapore’s open door policy was responsible, but it was due in large measure to its strong economic expansion.
The pace of arrivals was strong, but steady – rather than in one tidal surge – but on a scale that caught many Singaporeans by surprise. It has transformed the republic and its people. In the past 10 years alone, the city’s population rose by 27.5% - on top of a 37% expansion in the previous decade.
That means Singapore is today inhabited by at least 75% more people than two decades ago, an expansion rate that few nations – if at all – could claim. The rate rose further – by a record 5.5% - in the 12 months to June 2007.
Having a larger population both for reasons of a stronger economy and international status is not confined to Singapore.
In the 70s, Thai dictator Gen Prapas Charusathien called for Thailand to raise its population to 80 million.
And former prime minister Datuk Seri (now Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad, too, had wanted a doubling of Malaysia’s then population to 40 million to 50 million.
In Singapore, the Minister Mentor once referred to a flourishing international city of 6 million to 7 million people by 2030 – but it has since been scaled back.
Some believe that – with the current crisis – today’s 4.84 million people may already be too much.
The job shedding has already begun here, but has been confined to a few big corporations sacking between 50 and several hundred workers. The retrenchments are in small lots but believed to be extensively stretched all over the island’s smaller businesses. Nevertheless, they add up to a painful scenario.
Big layoffs are expected beginning from this month to the end of 2009 when the economy may fall to a minus one-or-two per cent.
Apart from the demographic setback, a long deep recession may have repercussions on strategic factors as well. One possibility is that it may compel the city-state to redirect its growth policies, or even change some fundamentals, especially when Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew is no longer around.
The pursuit of higher returns by investing in riskier instruments may be replaced by a more patient, safer approach – even at the cost of lower dividends.
This consequence will become more apparent in future if the Western financial world takes a further turn for the worse. In the new world, there are fewer safe bets anywhere. Meanwhile, the profile of Singapore’s politics, as well as younger electorate, will change faster in the years ahead.
Every five-yearly election brings out 200,000-220,000 new voters who have turned 21, a new breed of less predictable voters.
They are more liberal-minded and a tougher lot to please. The post-Lee Kuan Yew leaders will need to win them over to remain in power.
The result could see a future government that pays less priority on “corporatism” (like profits and revenue) and more emphasis on helping workers and people, a “return to basics” emphasis. The ruling PAP, after all, operates a “democratic socialist” party constitution.
While the immigration cut-back may currently be forced upon the state, it is unlikely to result in any significant shift of the open door policy. The government believes that foreigners are an asset to Singapore’s talent pool and vitality.
A senior government official said that when the economic growth hits 6% again, “Singapore will need 87,300 more workers. Most have to come from abroad; the birthrate is only half of this.”
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Human Wave Slows as Recession Bites
By SEAH CHIANG NEE
6 December 2008
The US economic meltdown will not only have financial implications for the island state but will also impinge on its demographic strategy.
One of the largest immigration waves in modern Singapore history may be brought to a halt by a severe economic downturn that could last for years.
The process could even be reversed, at least temporarily, if the job shedding becomes serious over the next two years, throwing back the republic’s ambition for a bigger population.
Many of the 1.2 million foreign workers may be forced to leave the city, and government officials have said that, if need be, foreigners will among the first to be retrenched.
Hundreds of jobless Burmese migrants have already returned home from Singapore, reported a Yangon newspaper, The Irrawady. It said higher-skilled workers like engineers and technicians are unable to find jobs.
Malaysian officials are also warning their citizens working here to be prepared for the worst.
If permanent residents (PRs) are included, foreigners make up some 35% of Singapore’s 4.84 million population. Many of them had flocked here to take advantage of Singapore’s long booming economy, which grew by 7.5% a year during 2002-2007.
Then the US financial meltdown hit the city, exporting what is shaping up to be one of its worst recessions.
The size of the expected exodus is not known; it depends on how severe and how long it will last. For now, no one really knows.
Analysts believe with an open economy that is heavily dependent on the ailing US, Singapore may be the worst hit country in Asia.
The impact could take on a historical perspective.
It will end, at least temporarily, the world’s biggest immigration inflow into any country during the past 20 years on a per capita basis.
Historically, Singapore is a migrant society with several waves of mass arrivals since it was discovered by Sir Stamford Raffles in 1819.
The current wave follows the previous one in the 40s and 50s when huge numbers of migrants flocked here from China, India and Indonesia to escape from wars, natural disasters or poverty. Singapore’s open door policy was responsible, but it was due in large measure to its strong economic expansion.
The pace of arrivals was strong, but steady – rather than in one tidal surge – but on a scale that caught many Singaporeans by surprise. It has transformed the republic and its people. In the past 10 years alone, the city’s population rose by 27.5% - on top of a 37% expansion in the previous decade.
That means Singapore is today inhabited by at least 75% more people than two decades ago, an expansion rate that few nations – if at all – could claim. The rate rose further – by a record 5.5% - in the 12 months to June 2007.
Having a larger population both for reasons of a stronger economy and international status is not confined to Singapore.
In the 70s, Thai dictator Gen Prapas Charusathien called for Thailand to raise its population to 80 million.
And former prime minister Datuk Seri (now Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad, too, had wanted a doubling of Malaysia’s then population to 40 million to 50 million.
In Singapore, the Minister Mentor once referred to a flourishing international city of 6 million to 7 million people by 2030 – but it has since been scaled back.
Some believe that – with the current crisis – today’s 4.84 million people may already be too much.
The job shedding has already begun here, but has been confined to a few big corporations sacking between 50 and several hundred workers. The retrenchments are in small lots but believed to be extensively stretched all over the island’s smaller businesses. Nevertheless, they add up to a painful scenario.
Big layoffs are expected beginning from this month to the end of 2009 when the economy may fall to a minus one-or-two per cent.
Apart from the demographic setback, a long deep recession may have repercussions on strategic factors as well. One possibility is that it may compel the city-state to redirect its growth policies, or even change some fundamentals, especially when Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew is no longer around.
The pursuit of higher returns by investing in riskier instruments may be replaced by a more patient, safer approach – even at the cost of lower dividends.
This consequence will become more apparent in future if the Western financial world takes a further turn for the worse. In the new world, there are fewer safe bets anywhere. Meanwhile, the profile of Singapore’s politics, as well as younger electorate, will change faster in the years ahead.
Every five-yearly election brings out 200,000-220,000 new voters who have turned 21, a new breed of less predictable voters.
They are more liberal-minded and a tougher lot to please. The post-Lee Kuan Yew leaders will need to win them over to remain in power.
The result could see a future government that pays less priority on “corporatism” (like profits and revenue) and more emphasis on helping workers and people, a “return to basics” emphasis. The ruling PAP, after all, operates a “democratic socialist” party constitution.
While the immigration cut-back may currently be forced upon the state, it is unlikely to result in any significant shift of the open door policy. The government believes that foreigners are an asset to Singapore’s talent pool and vitality.
A senior government official said that when the economic growth hits 6% again, “Singapore will need 87,300 more workers. Most have to come from abroad; the birthrate is only half of this.”
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