Reunification with Taiwan remains a pressing issue
Lawrence Chung in Taipei 30 September 2009
It’s daybreak on March 17, 2012 - election day in Taiwan.
In the northern coastal town of Tamsui, 35 minutes outside Taipei, old men head out into the cool, clear morning to do their exercises, while delivery vans make their rounds through the empty streets.
Outside the town’s polling centres, election workers lay out tables and plug in the electronic voting machines, and prepare to open up for people looking to cast their votes before they go to work.
Suddenly, a series of massive explosions shatter the calm. Windows smash, huge fireballs shoot upwards, smoke fills the sky. “The Patriot II anti-missile battery was hit,” panicked residents cry.
A few minutes later, the shrieks and screams are drowned out by hundreds of fighter jets ripping through the sky in perfect formation, dropping bomb after bomb. Then a wave of carrier aircraft roar over the town, unleashing tens of thousands of airborne troops who quickly move to seize a string of important military installations and communications points around Taipei. Stunned Tamsui residents look out to sea, and through the smoke and morning haze, what they see is unmistakable - a flotilla of landing craft hurtling at full speed towards the town and the surrounding beaches.
Within days, all major military sites in the north of the island are either controlled by paratroopers or destroyed. The election is postponed, and the leadership bunkered down at the Heng Shan Military Command Centre in Taipei have no choice but to announce that they have agreed to hand over the island to the mainland.
On March 30, an ebullient President Hu Jintao announces the completion of the historic mission of returning Taiwan to the motherland as he passes the baton to his successor, Xi Jinping, during his farewell speech.
This all sounds like something out of a movie, but according to experts in cross-straits relations, the scenario is not impossible.
“2012 is a crucial year,” said Lai I-chung, executive member of Taiwan Think Tank. “It is a year important to Taiwan’s survival.”
Peacefully bringing Hong Kong and Macau back into the fold was one of the mainland’s greatest triumphs, but Taiwan has proven to be an altogether more elusive task. While maintaining the current status quo - no independence and no reunification - has remained the mainstream thinking in Taiwan, the mainland may not share the same patience. Lai said Beijing might want to expedite the reunification process, with Hu eager to leave a historic legacy and set the course for his successor before stepping down in 2012.
He added the scenario could become more real if Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou failed to get re-elected in 2012 and there was a commotion brought about by his electoral defeat and victory for the pro-independence camp. Failure to lift Taiwan’s sagging economy, poor government performance, loss of public trust and leaning too close towards the mainland could lead to a defeat for Ma.
Another potential trigger for a dramatic denouement would be a deterioration in the mainland’s economy, prompting an attempt to divert public attention.
“Possible measures include creating cross-strait conflict or even a military attack in the name of pacifying the political disorder in Taiwan,” Lai said.
Shuai Hua-ming, a retired army lieutenant general who now sits on the foreign affairs and defence committee of Taiwan’s legislature, said while he doubted the PLA would attack at that time, a successful takeover of the island basically hinged on how fast the mainland was able to move its troops and whether it could achieve surprise. “How fast the US could move navy and air forces to aid Taiwan after Taiwan survived the first strike from the mainland is another important factor to weigh,” he said.
While the mainland might attack the island to force cross-strait reunification, there is also the potential of Taiwan declaring de jure independence - most likely as a result of mainland aggression.
Stephen Lee Sheng-hsiung, former secretary-general of the Taiwan Independence Party, said it was necessary for Taiwan to declare independence as soon as possible.
“Given China’s anxious ambition to annex Taiwan, it is highly necessary for Taiwan to declare independence before it is too late,” said Lee, now a lawyer.
To do this, Lee said, Taiwan must first abolish the “1992 consensus, one China principle”, under which the KMT government reached a tacit understanding with the mainland at a meeting in Hong Kong to allow each side to have its own interpretation of what “one China” stands for. To Taipei, it stands for the Republic of China, and to Beijing, it means the People’s Republic of China.
Lee said Taiwan should immediately recognise Beijing as the sole representative of China and that Taiwan is not a part of the mainland. Before long, it must rename itself “Republic of Taiwan”. The island should also draft a new constitution and join the United Nations as well as other international organisations whose memberships require statehood. He said once the island did all this, the US and other countries concerned by Chinese regional hegemony would not sit idly by if Beijing attacked.
But George Tsai Wei, political science professor at Chinese Cultural University in Taipei, dismissed the idea of declaring independence as naive. He said not only did it fail to take into account the consequences of war, it also did not consider the attitudes of neighbouring countries like Japan and South Korea that would not want to upset Beijing.
At the same time, Tsai said it was “highly unlikely” that Taiwan would accept the “one country, two systems” co-existence concept.
“For Taiwan to accept that formula, it would mean giving up its sovereignty and recognising its status as the same as Hong Kong and Macau, even though Beijing might offer more privileges and powers for Taipei,” Tsai said.
Were Taiwan to accept that formula, mainland-friendly Ma would be designated as the first chief executive of Taiwan and would be free from worrying about economic doldrums on the island. Beijing would probably help Taipei under some sort of Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement like the one it signed with Hong Kong.
Nor would Ma need to worry about whether Taiwan should re-enter the international stage, join the UN and keep the number of its diplomatic allies at 23.
But in return, Tsai said, the Taiwanese would lose the democracy they fought for, judging from what had happened in Hong Kong and Macau, where direct elections of leaders were no longer possible and the freedom of the press was checked.
Taiwan’s democracy is a source of pride on the island, and the establishment of the Taiwanese identity in the last two decades has made it unlikely that people would accept it being rolled back.
Lee Teng-hui, branded a closet pro-independence supporter by Beijing, introduced the concept of Taiwanese identity during his time as president between 1988 and 2000. But it was not until Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party came to power in 2000 that such an identity was widely accepted on the island.
“By the time he stepped down in May last year, Chen had firmly established the Taiwanese identity and sovereign independent status nurtured by his predecessor Lee,” Tsai said.
By branding the mainland as a merciless invader, with 1,300 missiles targeting the island, Chen -who was found guilty of corruption this month and jailed for life - succeeded in intensifying the public anger over the mainland and fanning the sense of Taiwanese identity.
“The KMT had no other choice but to tone down its reunification stand if it was to win support from voters,” Edward Chen I-hsin, professor of the American Studies Institute at Tamkang university, said.
Instead of upholding the party’s platform of reunification with the mainland under democracy, the KMT has called for the upholding of the status quo of Taiwan since 2004, in order to compete with the DPP.
The most recent poll conducted by the Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan’s top mainland policy planning body, in April showed that 84.7 per cent of 1,132 adults supported maintaining the status quo.
Just 1.2 per cent of these respondents backed immediate reunification, as opposed to 6.7 per cent who favoured immediate independence.
Analysts agreed that it was impossible for the mainland to wait indefinitely. Something must be done to keep in check the hardline faction which pushes for the use of force, while allowing cross-strait unification to be achieved in a gradual, but natural way. Confederation or some other form of political and economic integration could be a way out.
Former vice-president and KMT chairman Lien Chan is the biggest supporter of a Chinese confederation, under which Taiwan and the mainland could exist like European Union member states under a single economic umbrella but with full autonomy guaranteed for both. However, this would go against Beijing’s sovereignty claim over Taiwan and give the sides equal status, which would make it hard for Beijing to accept.
“Slow but steady and natural integration should be the path of cross-strait reunification,” said Chang Ya-chung, a political science professor at National Taiwan University.
Under his proposal, Taipei and Beijing, which have their own constitutions, would seek to jointly institute a third constitution based on a range of agreements or treaties - from economic and political to cultural - signed by the two sides for closer links and co-operation.
With both sides pledging not to split, these agreements, including the most important one - the peace treaty - would actually pave the way for integration between the two sides and hence cross-strait reunification in the future, he said.
“That way, a new China - no longer a China under Beijing or Taipei - would be born,” said Chang, who also heads the Chinese Integration Association. “The two sides should set this as their common goal, though there is no timetable over when cross-strait integration would take shape.”
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Reunification with Taiwan remains a pressing issue
Lawrence Chung in Taipei
30 September 2009
It’s daybreak on March 17, 2012 - election day in Taiwan.
In the northern coastal town of Tamsui, 35 minutes outside Taipei, old men head out into the cool, clear morning to do their exercises, while delivery vans make their rounds through the empty streets.
Outside the town’s polling centres, election workers lay out tables and plug in the electronic voting machines, and prepare to open up for people looking to cast their votes before they go to work.
Suddenly, a series of massive explosions shatter the calm. Windows smash, huge fireballs shoot upwards, smoke fills the sky. “The Patriot II anti-missile battery was hit,” panicked residents cry.
A few minutes later, the shrieks and screams are drowned out by hundreds of fighter jets ripping through the sky in perfect formation, dropping bomb after bomb. Then a wave of carrier aircraft roar over the town, unleashing tens of thousands of airborne troops who quickly move to seize a string of important military installations and communications points around Taipei. Stunned Tamsui residents look out to sea, and through the smoke and morning haze, what they see is unmistakable - a flotilla of landing craft hurtling at full speed towards the town and the surrounding beaches.
Within days, all major military sites in the north of the island are either controlled by paratroopers or destroyed. The election is postponed, and the leadership bunkered down at the Heng Shan Military Command Centre in Taipei have no choice but to announce that they have agreed to hand over the island to the mainland.
On March 30, an ebullient President Hu Jintao announces the completion of the historic mission of returning Taiwan to the motherland as he passes the baton to his successor, Xi Jinping, during his farewell speech.
This all sounds like something out of a movie, but according to experts in cross-straits relations, the scenario is not impossible.
“2012 is a crucial year,” said Lai I-chung, executive member of Taiwan Think Tank. “It is a year important to Taiwan’s survival.”
Peacefully bringing Hong Kong and Macau back into the fold was one of the mainland’s greatest triumphs, but Taiwan has proven to be an altogether more elusive task. While maintaining the current status quo - no independence and no reunification - has remained the mainstream thinking in Taiwan, the mainland may not share the same patience. Lai said Beijing might want to expedite the reunification process, with Hu eager to leave a historic legacy and set the course for his successor before stepping down in 2012.
He added the scenario could become more real if Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou failed to get re-elected in 2012 and there was a commotion brought about by his electoral defeat and victory for the pro-independence camp. Failure to lift Taiwan’s sagging economy, poor government performance, loss of public trust and leaning too close towards the mainland could lead to a defeat for Ma.
Another potential trigger for a dramatic denouement would be a deterioration in the mainland’s economy, prompting an attempt to divert public attention.
“Possible measures include creating cross-strait conflict or even a military attack in the name of pacifying the political disorder in Taiwan,” Lai said.
Shuai Hua-ming, a retired army lieutenant general who now sits on the foreign affairs and defence committee of Taiwan’s legislature, said while he doubted the PLA would attack at that time, a successful takeover of the island basically hinged on how fast the mainland was able to move its troops and whether it could achieve surprise. “How fast the US could move navy and air forces to aid Taiwan after Taiwan survived the first strike from the mainland is another important factor to weigh,” he said.
While the mainland might attack the island to force cross-strait reunification, there is also the potential of Taiwan declaring de jure independence - most likely as a result of mainland aggression.
Stephen Lee Sheng-hsiung, former secretary-general of the Taiwan Independence Party, said it was necessary for Taiwan to declare independence as soon as possible.
“Given China’s anxious ambition to annex Taiwan, it is highly necessary for Taiwan to declare independence before it is too late,” said Lee, now a lawyer.
To do this, Lee said, Taiwan must first abolish the “1992 consensus, one China principle”, under which the KMT government reached a tacit understanding with the mainland at a meeting in Hong Kong to allow each side to have its own interpretation of what “one China” stands for. To Taipei, it stands for the Republic of China, and to Beijing, it means the People’s Republic of China.
Lee said Taiwan should immediately recognise Beijing as the sole representative of China and that Taiwan is not a part of the mainland. Before long, it must rename itself “Republic of Taiwan”. The island should also draft a new constitution and join the United Nations as well as other international organisations whose memberships require statehood. He said once the island did all this, the US and other countries concerned by Chinese regional hegemony would not sit idly by if Beijing attacked.
But George Tsai Wei, political science professor at Chinese Cultural University in Taipei, dismissed the idea of declaring independence as naive. He said not only did it fail to take into account the consequences of war, it also did not consider the attitudes of neighbouring countries like Japan and South Korea that would not want to upset Beijing.
At the same time, Tsai said it was “highly unlikely” that Taiwan would accept the “one country, two systems” co-existence concept.
“For Taiwan to accept that formula, it would mean giving up its sovereignty and recognising its status as the same as Hong Kong and Macau, even though Beijing might offer more privileges and powers for Taipei,” Tsai said.
Were Taiwan to accept that formula, mainland-friendly Ma would be designated as the first chief executive of Taiwan and would be free from worrying about economic doldrums on the island. Beijing would probably help Taipei under some sort of Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement like the one it signed with Hong Kong.
Nor would Ma need to worry about whether Taiwan should re-enter the international stage, join the UN and keep the number of its diplomatic allies at 23.
But in return, Tsai said, the Taiwanese would lose the democracy they fought for, judging from what had happened in Hong Kong and Macau, where direct elections of leaders were no longer possible and the freedom of the press was checked.
Taiwan’s democracy is a source of pride on the island, and the establishment of the Taiwanese identity in the last two decades has made it unlikely that people would accept it being rolled back.
Lee Teng-hui, branded a closet pro-independence supporter by Beijing, introduced the concept of Taiwanese identity during his time as president between 1988 and 2000. But it was not until Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party came to power in 2000 that such an identity was widely accepted on the island.
“By the time he stepped down in May last year, Chen had firmly established the Taiwanese identity and sovereign independent status nurtured by his predecessor Lee,” Tsai said.
By branding the mainland as a merciless invader, with 1,300 missiles targeting the island, Chen -who was found guilty of corruption this month and jailed for life - succeeded in intensifying the public anger over the mainland and fanning the sense of Taiwanese identity.
“The KMT had no other choice but to tone down its reunification stand if it was to win support from voters,” Edward Chen I-hsin, professor of the American Studies Institute at Tamkang university, said.
Instead of upholding the party’s platform of reunification with the mainland under democracy, the KMT has called for the upholding of the status quo of Taiwan since 2004, in order to compete with the DPP.
The most recent poll conducted by the Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan’s top mainland policy planning body, in April showed that 84.7 per cent of 1,132 adults supported maintaining the status quo.
Just 1.2 per cent of these respondents backed immediate reunification, as opposed to 6.7 per cent who favoured immediate independence.
Analysts agreed that it was impossible for the mainland to wait indefinitely. Something must be done to keep in check the hardline faction which pushes for the use of force, while allowing cross-strait unification to be achieved in a gradual, but natural way. Confederation or some other form of political and economic integration could be a way out.
Former vice-president and KMT chairman Lien Chan is the biggest supporter of a Chinese confederation, under which Taiwan and the mainland could exist like European Union member states under a single economic umbrella but with full autonomy guaranteed for both. However, this would go against Beijing’s sovereignty claim over Taiwan and give the sides equal status, which would make it hard for Beijing to accept.
“Slow but steady and natural integration should be the path of cross-strait reunification,” said Chang Ya-chung, a political science professor at National Taiwan University.
Under his proposal, Taipei and Beijing, which have their own constitutions, would seek to jointly institute a third constitution based on a range of agreements or treaties - from economic and political to cultural - signed by the two sides for closer links and co-operation.
With both sides pledging not to split, these agreements, including the most important one - the peace treaty - would actually pave the way for integration between the two sides and hence cross-strait reunification in the future, he said.
“That way, a new China - no longer a China under Beijing or Taipei - would be born,” said Chang, who also heads the Chinese Integration Association. “The two sides should set this as their common goal, though there is no timetable over when cross-strait integration would take shape.”
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