Experts say China's one-child policy will undermine country's economic rise
CNA 30 September 2009
China has the world’s largest population of 1.3 billion. Its labour force is more than double that of the US and the EU combined.
And by 2020, said some observers, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest manufacturer.
But under the one-child policy, the country is likely to grow old before it grows rich.
For the past 30 years, China’s one-child policy has prevented more than 400 million births.
While this has no doubt saved the country from a population explosion, it also came with a heavy social cost.
Almost half of the population is below the age of 30.
And in a decade’s time, many will be facing the “4-2-1” issue. That is, every adult has to care for two parents, and four grandparents.
This number doubles, when a couple gets married.
The traditional Chinese preference for sons has also created a serious gender imbalance.
For children under the age of 10, there are 121 boys for every 100 girls.
As a result, unmarried men, who are known as “Guang Gun” or “bare branches,” are predicted to hit 30 million by year 2020, and some of them will have to look beyond China’s borders for a bride.
The economic cost of an aging population will also become increasingly severe.
Currently, nearly three quarters of China’s population are working adults.
But under the one-child policy, this number will dwindle, and by 2050, every 100 working Chinese will have to support 60 elderly.
Analysts warn the old-age dependency ratio will make China’s economy and society vulnerable.
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Experts say China's one-child policy will undermine country's economic rise
CNA
30 September 2009
China has the world’s largest population of 1.3 billion. Its labour force is more than double that of the US and the EU combined.
And by 2020, said some observers, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest manufacturer.
But under the one-child policy, the country is likely to grow old before it grows rich.
For the past 30 years, China’s one-child policy has prevented more than 400 million births.
While this has no doubt saved the country from a population explosion, it also came with a heavy social cost.
Almost half of the population is below the age of 30.
And in a decade’s time, many will be facing the “4-2-1” issue. That is, every adult has to care for two parents, and four grandparents.
This number doubles, when a couple gets married.
The traditional Chinese preference for sons has also created a serious gender imbalance.
For children under the age of 10, there are 121 boys for every 100 girls.
As a result, unmarried men, who are known as “Guang Gun” or “bare branches,” are predicted to hit 30 million by year 2020, and some of them will have to look beyond China’s borders for a bride.
The economic cost of an aging population will also become increasingly severe.
Currently, nearly three quarters of China’s population are working adults.
But under the one-child policy, this number will dwindle, and by 2050, every 100 working Chinese will have to support 60 elderly.
Analysts warn the old-age dependency ratio will make China’s economy and society vulnerable.
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