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Wednesday 11 February 2009
Government Bonds May Be Last Bubble: Jim Rogers
Investors will have to short government bonds at some point despite their current attraction, as the amount of debt issued is “staggering” and inflation risks are down the road, Jim Rogers, CEO of Jim Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Tuesday.
Investors will have to short government bonds at some point despite their current attraction, as the amount of debt issued is “staggering” and inflation risks are down the road, Jim Rogers, CEO of Jim Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Tuesday.
The low rates policy promoted by central banks is likely to pop a fresh bubble in government bonds sometime in the future, Rogers said.
“I was short long-term government bonds in the US, I had to cover a little loss because the head of the central bank said he was going to buy US long-term bonds, and he’s got more money than I do,” he told “Squawk Box Europe.”
“I plan to sell short US government long bonds sometime in the foreseeable future… I don’t know when, whether it’s this quarter or this year,” Rogers said.
If long-term interest rates continue to go down, then “you’ve got to sell short government bonds, because the numbers are just staggering” when it comes to the amount of debt issued by the US and the UK, he explained.
“Government bonds may be the last bubble that is developing. I’m not short government bonds right now,” Rogers said.
The rise in the US dollar was likely caused by short-sellers covering their bets but the trend was unlikely to last long-term, he said.
“There are huge short positions in the dollar, everybody is trying to cover. I’m not selling my yen yet, but it’s an artificial rally too.”
“I sold all of my sterling, I wouldn’t buy sterling for the next 5 to10 years. The same is happening to the US economy, I’m not picking on the UK,” Rogers added.
He reiterated his view that, with North Sea oil reserves dwindling and the City of London shrinking because of the financial crisis, the UK had no big industries to fall back upon. The euro and other currencies from the Continent are likely to fare slightly better than sterling, but they were not a ‘buy’ in his view, Rogers said.
“I’m not buying any of these currencies at the moment. I still own the euro, I don’t own sterling anymore, I still own the Swiss franc. Europe at least is not a huge debtor, like the UK is,” he said.
Commodities continue to be the safest bet as fundamentals were good because when the economic downturn is over, the world will need raw materials, he said.
“The fundamentals of commodities are improving through all of this,” Rogers said. “You’re not going to see a mine of any kind opening in 10 to15 years.”
Agricultural commodities, where prices fell a lot, oil and gold may also be good for investors, according to Rogers.
“I’m buying gold just because I’m periodically buying gold, because I do expect it to be much higher over the next decade,” Rogers said, adding that history has never seen all major central banks printing money “as fast as they can” at the same time.
“I know we’re going to have serious inflation down the road,” Rogers said.
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Government Bonds May Be Last Bubble: Jim Rogers
CNBC.com
10 February 2009
Investors will have to short government bonds at some point despite their current attraction, as the amount of debt issued is “staggering” and inflation risks are down the road, Jim Rogers, CEO of Jim Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Tuesday.
The low rates policy promoted by central banks is likely to pop a fresh bubble in government bonds sometime in the future, Rogers said.
“I was short long-term government bonds in the US, I had to cover a little loss because the head of the central bank said he was going to buy US long-term bonds, and he’s got more money than I do,” he told “Squawk Box Europe.”
“I plan to sell short US government long bonds sometime in the foreseeable future… I don’t know when, whether it’s this quarter or this year,” Rogers said.
If long-term interest rates continue to go down, then “you’ve got to sell short government bonds, because the numbers are just staggering” when it comes to the amount of debt issued by the US and the UK, he explained.
“Government bonds may be the last bubble that is developing. I’m not short government bonds right now,” Rogers said.
The rise in the US dollar was likely caused by short-sellers covering their bets but the trend was unlikely to last long-term, he said.
“There are huge short positions in the dollar, everybody is trying to cover. I’m not selling my yen yet, but it’s an artificial rally too.”
“I sold all of my sterling, I wouldn’t buy sterling for the next 5 to10 years. The same is happening to the US economy, I’m not picking on the UK,” Rogers added.
He reiterated his view that, with North Sea oil reserves dwindling and the City of London shrinking because of the financial crisis, the UK had no big industries to fall back upon. The euro and other currencies from the Continent are likely to fare slightly better than sterling, but they were not a ‘buy’ in his view, Rogers said.
“I’m not buying any of these currencies at the moment. I still own the euro, I don’t own sterling anymore, I still own the Swiss franc. Europe at least is not a huge debtor, like the UK is,” he said.
Commodities continue to be the safest bet as fundamentals were good because when the economic downturn is over, the world will need raw materials, he said.
“The fundamentals of commodities are improving through all of this,” Rogers said. “You’re not going to see a mine of any kind opening in 10 to15 years.”
Agricultural commodities, where prices fell a lot, oil and gold may also be good for investors, according to Rogers.
“I’m buying gold just because I’m periodically buying gold, because I do expect it to be much higher over the next decade,” Rogers said, adding that history has never seen all major central banks printing money “as fast as they can” at the same time.
“I know we’re going to have serious inflation down the road,” Rogers said.
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