Bo’s sacking adds new twist to leadership reshuffle
Crisis has led to much speculation over which party faction will gain as horse-trading continues
Wang Xiangwei 09 April 2012
As the mainland leadership grapples with one of the biggest political crises in decades following the sacking of Bo Xilai as the Chongqing party secretary, analysts are trying to decipher how this will impact the once-in-a-decade leadership reshuffle scheduled this autumn.
Many believe Bo’s sacking not only signals the schism in the mainland’s top leadership - rarely exposed in public - but also casts uncertainty over the important upcoming transition to the fifth generation of leadership.
One of the favourite pastimes among the nation’s political elites had been to speculate on the make-up of the new nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, the mainland’s highest ruling body, due to be revealed at the Communist Party’s 18th Congress.
Everyone has their own favourites and lists keep changing according to the latest rumours from the grapevine.
But going by past experience, the final composition of the Politburo and its Standing Committee is unlikely to be settled on until summer, when current and retired leaders converge in their summer homes in Beidaihe, Hebei province, and undertake the final rounds of horse-trading before deciding the winners and losers.
The Bo saga does offer some new twists, though, and many have begun to speculate if this means that President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, well known for their contempt for Bo’s campaigns in Chongqing, have gained an upper hand in promoting their own supporters.
But others have pointed to the fact that Vice-Premier Zhang Dejiang, a strong ally of former president Jiang Zemin, has been appointed to replace Bo as Chongqing party chief, as evidence that supporters of Hu and Wen have failed to gain much.
Another new twist is that there have been growing calls within the party for cutting the number of seats in the standing committee from nine to seven to facilitate better and quicker decisions.
The upcoming leadership change is important because the next 10 years are crucial for undertaking drastic political and economic reforms if the leadership is to steer the world’s second largest economy on a more sustainable and healthier growth track.
It is also significant because it marks the first time the new leadership will not have been pre-selected by the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and will further institutionalise age and term limits for future leaders.
Among the Politburo Standing Committee, seven of the nine incumbent members are expected to retire as they will all be at least 68 and will have served the maximum of two five-year terms, both yardsticks for retirement. Of the remaining 16 members of the full Politburo, another seven are expected to retire because of the age or term limit and nine are vying to be on the Standing Committee.
While the final list for the new leadership is yet to be finalised, the latest political developments suggest the various party factions have already reached consensus over six of the nine seats. The first two are sure bets: Vice-President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang, both of them already Politburo Standing Committee members, are expected to succeed Hu and Wen respectively.
Vice-Premier Wang Qishan, Li Yuanchao, director of the party’s organisation department, and Yu Zhengsheng, Shanghai party secretary, stand a greater chance than their peers. Wang is expected to become executive vice-premier while Li is most likely to assume the vice-presidency, which probably means he will be Beijing’s highest official in charge of Hong Kong affairs.
Yu, who is already 67, has seen his political fortunes boosted in the past week after People’s Daily lavished praise on Shanghai’s development under his leadership. He is now widely expected to replace Wu Bangguo as chairman of the National People’s Congress.
Vice-Premier Zhang appears to have also secured a seat, as his recent appointment as Chongqing party secretary shows that he has support from all factions.
The remaining three seats are up for grabs among Zhang Gaoli, the Tianjin party secretary, Liu Yunshan, currently in charge of propaganda, Wang Yang, the Guangdong party secretary, and Liu Yandong, a State Councillor in charge of united front work and sports.
Wang, 57, has long been considered a contender for a seat on the Standing Committee and is known for his liberal thinking and reformist ideas. He is regarded as a political rival of Bo as they both appear to hold vastly different views over the mainland’s future direction.
Following Bo’s ousting, many believe Wang stands a higher chance but others think the strong reaction from Bo’s supporters within the party could mean Wang being sidelined in the months to come.
Liu Yandong and Liu Yunshan are also seen as strong candidates. Indeed, some leaders, including Hu, are believed to be lobbying for Liu Yandong to make history as the first female Politburo Standing Committee member.
However, one un-written rule for electing the country’s top leaders, if enforced, could lower their chances: the stipulation that Standing Committee members should have been a party chief of a province or municipality. Neither of them have.
In that regard, Zhang Gaoli of Tianjin enjoys better odds.
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Bo’s sacking adds new twist to leadership reshuffle
Crisis has led to much speculation over which party faction will gain as horse-trading continues
Wang Xiangwei
09 April 2012
As the mainland leadership grapples with one of the biggest political crises in decades following the sacking of Bo Xilai as the Chongqing party secretary, analysts are trying to decipher how this will impact the once-in-a-decade leadership reshuffle scheduled this autumn.
Many believe Bo’s sacking not only signals the schism in the mainland’s top leadership - rarely exposed in public - but also casts uncertainty over the important upcoming transition to the fifth generation of leadership.
One of the favourite pastimes among the nation’s political elites had been to speculate on the make-up of the new nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, the mainland’s highest ruling body, due to be revealed at the Communist Party’s 18th Congress.
Everyone has their own favourites and lists keep changing according to the latest rumours from the grapevine.
But going by past experience, the final composition of the Politburo and its Standing Committee is unlikely to be settled on until summer, when current and retired leaders converge in their summer homes in Beidaihe, Hebei province, and undertake the final rounds of horse-trading before deciding the winners and losers.
The Bo saga does offer some new twists, though, and many have begun to speculate if this means that President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, well known for their contempt for Bo’s campaigns in Chongqing, have gained an upper hand in promoting their own supporters.
But others have pointed to the fact that Vice-Premier Zhang Dejiang, a strong ally of former president Jiang Zemin, has been appointed to replace Bo as Chongqing party chief, as evidence that supporters of Hu and Wen have failed to gain much.
Another new twist is that there have been growing calls within the party for cutting the number of seats in the standing committee from nine to seven to facilitate better and quicker decisions.
The upcoming leadership change is important because the next 10 years are crucial for undertaking drastic political and economic reforms if the leadership is to steer the world’s second largest economy on a more sustainable and healthier growth track.
It is also significant because it marks the first time the new leadership will not have been pre-selected by the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and will further institutionalise age and term limits for future leaders.
Among the Politburo Standing Committee, seven of the nine incumbent members are expected to retire as they will all be at least 68 and will have served the maximum of two five-year terms, both yardsticks for retirement. Of the remaining 16 members of the full Politburo, another seven are expected to retire because of the age or term limit and nine are vying to be on the Standing Committee.
While the final list for the new leadership is yet to be finalised, the latest political developments suggest the various party factions have already reached consensus over six of the nine seats. The first two are sure bets: Vice-President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang, both of them already Politburo Standing Committee members, are expected to succeed Hu and Wen respectively.
Vice-Premier Wang Qishan, Li Yuanchao, director of the party’s organisation department, and Yu Zhengsheng, Shanghai party secretary, stand a greater chance than their peers. Wang is expected to become executive vice-premier while Li is most likely to assume the vice-presidency, which probably means he will be Beijing’s highest official in charge of Hong Kong affairs.
Yu, who is already 67, has seen his political fortunes boosted in the past week after People’s Daily lavished praise on Shanghai’s development under his leadership. He is now widely expected to replace Wu Bangguo as chairman of the National People’s Congress.
Vice-Premier Zhang appears to have also secured a seat, as his recent appointment as Chongqing party secretary shows that he has support from all factions.
The remaining three seats are up for grabs among Zhang Gaoli, the Tianjin party secretary, Liu Yunshan, currently in charge of propaganda, Wang Yang, the Guangdong party secretary, and Liu Yandong, a State Councillor in charge of united front work and sports.
Wang, 57, has long been considered a contender for a seat on the Standing Committee and is known for his liberal thinking and reformist ideas. He is regarded as a political rival of Bo as they both appear to hold vastly different views over the mainland’s future direction.
Following Bo’s ousting, many believe Wang stands a higher chance but others think the strong reaction from Bo’s supporters within the party could mean Wang being sidelined in the months to come.
Liu Yandong and Liu Yunshan are also seen as strong candidates. Indeed, some leaders, including Hu, are believed to be lobbying for Liu Yandong to make history as the first female Politburo Standing Committee member.
However, one un-written rule for electing the country’s top leaders, if enforced, could lower their chances: the stipulation that Standing Committee members should have been a party chief of a province or municipality. Neither of them have.
In that regard, Zhang Gaoli of Tianjin enjoys better odds.
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