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Sunday, 7 February 2010
Census may spur rethink on birth control
China is preparing to send an army of six million enumerators into cities and the countryside later this year for a national census that can have a profound influence on the population policy.
China is preparing to send an army of six million enumerators into cities and the countryside later this year for a national census that can have a profound influence on the population policy.
The nationwide population census of the world’s most populous nation will start on November 1.
It will take the enumerators 10 days to collect data from households across the country.
People will be asked their name, age, gender and marital status, and details of their educational qualifications, employment, housing and social security.
Foreigners, as well as Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwanese people living on the mainland, will be tallied for the first time.
In Beijing, 100,000 people will be sent out to collect data. They will be joined for the first time by volunteers, mostly college students.
It will be the mainland’s sixth national census, which was carried out about every 10 years since 1954. The last poll, in 2000, put the population at 1.13 billion.
Lu Jiehua , from Peking University’s Population Research Institute, said the census would provide crucial information for the top leadership about whether the controversial birth-control policy should be changed in the next few years.
“China has been threatened by overpopulation for a long time,” Lu said. “No official will dare to take the risk to relax or adjust the current policy unless the sixth census poll shows the birth rate has dropped much more than they thought.”
Since 1980, the mainland has implemented strict birth-control measures to avoid a population explosion, including the one-child policy, often attacked by overseas critics as a violation of human rights.
Contrary to commonly held beliefs, experts say only 35.9 per cent of the population - those living in cities - are actually affected by the one-child policy. Couples in rural areas, accounting for 52.9 per cent of the population, are allowed a second child if their first-born is a girl, and the remaining 11.2 per cent are members of ethnic minorities, who can have two or more children.
According to official data, the 30-year-old policy has helped bring down the country’s birth rate from 5.8 children per couple in 1970 to 1.8 now. However, the policy has increasingly been questioned by academics as its many social and economic side effects, including an ageing population and gender imbalance, come to light.
The State Family Planning and Population Commission said on Thursday the government would not give up its birth-control policy until 2015, aiming at keeping the low birth rate at 1.8, which the authorities believe will control the population at 1.6 billion in 2050 and about one billion in 2100.
Many academics say the actual birth rate has been much lower than the official version for years, and have called for the one-child policy to be relaxed as soon as possible.
In 2007, Ye Tingfang , a professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and 28 other members of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference proposed that the government restore a former family planning policy that allowed every couple to have up to two children.
“The birth rate has been extremely low in many areas due to social problems such as the soaring cost of living, the polluted environment and the strict policy,” Ye said yesterday. “For example, in Shanghai, where the birth-control measure is more commonly enforced, the elderly, above 60, will account for 40 per cent of the population in 2030.”
Besides social problems, he said the birth-control policy could also lead to economic problems in the future, when China lost its population bonus.
“Please imagine what will happen to a country that builds its superiority on cheap labour if it suffers from an ageing population.”
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Census may spur rethink on birth control
He Huifeng
06 February 2010
China is preparing to send an army of six million enumerators into cities and the countryside later this year for a national census that can have a profound influence on the population policy.
The nationwide population census of the world’s most populous nation will start on November 1.
It will take the enumerators 10 days to collect data from households across the country.
People will be asked their name, age, gender and marital status, and details of their educational qualifications, employment, housing and social security.
Foreigners, as well as Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwanese people living on the mainland, will be tallied for the first time.
In Beijing, 100,000 people will be sent out to collect data. They will be joined for the first time by volunteers, mostly college students.
It will be the mainland’s sixth national census, which was carried out about every 10 years since 1954. The last poll, in 2000, put the population at 1.13 billion.
Lu Jiehua , from Peking University’s Population Research Institute, said the census would provide crucial information for the top leadership about whether the controversial birth-control policy should be changed in the next few years.
“China has been threatened by overpopulation for a long time,” Lu said. “No official will dare to take the risk to relax or adjust the current policy unless the sixth census poll shows the birth rate has dropped much more than they thought.”
Since 1980, the mainland has implemented strict birth-control measures to avoid a population explosion, including the one-child policy, often attacked by overseas critics as a violation of human rights.
Contrary to commonly held beliefs, experts say only 35.9 per cent of the population - those living in cities - are actually affected by the one-child policy. Couples in rural areas, accounting for 52.9 per cent of the population, are allowed a second child if their first-born is a girl, and the remaining 11.2 per cent are members of ethnic minorities, who can have two or more children.
According to official data, the 30-year-old policy has helped bring down the country’s birth rate from 5.8 children per couple in 1970 to 1.8 now. However, the policy has increasingly been questioned by academics as its many social and economic side effects, including an ageing population and gender imbalance, come to light.
The State Family Planning and Population Commission said on Thursday the government would not give up its birth-control policy until 2015, aiming at keeping the low birth rate at 1.8, which the authorities believe will control the population at 1.6 billion in 2050 and about one billion in 2100.
Many academics say the actual birth rate has been much lower than the official version for years, and have called for the one-child policy to be relaxed as soon as possible.
In 2007, Ye Tingfang , a professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and 28 other members of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference proposed that the government restore a former family planning policy that allowed every couple to have up to two children.
“The birth rate has been extremely low in many areas due to social problems such as the soaring cost of living, the polluted environment and the strict policy,” Ye said yesterday. “For example, in Shanghai, where the birth-control measure is more commonly enforced, the elderly, above 60, will account for 40 per cent of the population in 2030.”
Besides social problems, he said the birth-control policy could also lead to economic problems in the future, when China lost its population bonus.
“Please imagine what will happen to a country that builds its superiority on cheap labour if it suffers from an ageing population.”
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