West suspects Beijing has developed space-age arms, despite Hu’s denials
Military observers say satellite image confirms suspicions about PLA capabilities
Minnie Chan 10 November 2009
As President Hu Jintao met international air force delegations last week and attempted to ease growing concerns over perceived Chinese ambitions to weaponise space, Western security experts were poring over a satellite image that purportedly shows a new anti-satellite laser weapon site in Xinjiang.
The debate started when IMINT and Analysis, a military analysis website, posted the satellite image last week, believing it shows an anti-satellite weapon site.
It claimed that the camouflaged buildings in the Tianshan mountain range of the northwestern autonomous region housed an armament that potentially could “dazzle, blind, or destroy a satellite”.
The report was picked up by many security websites and the media. While the picture does show some features resembling a high-energy laser installation, most experts could not decide if it was a stargazing centre, a range finder or a weapons site as the website claimed.
Air force commander General Xu Qiliang rejected the claims on Sunday.
Speaking at a forum commemorating the 60th anniversary of People’s Liberation Army Air Force, Xu did not deny the existence of the site but refused to disclose its function other than to say it was for peaceful purposes.
“This is their [Western media] interpretation,” he said. “But in fact we only use it for peaceful purposes. China has a number of satellites and we need to keep checking and maintaining these satellites.”
This is not the first time Chinese high-energy laser installations have caught Western security attention and raised concerns over the weaponisation of space.
A US government agency revealed in 2006 that China had directed a ground-based laser at American spy satellites over its territory.
The Pentagon’s National Reconnaissance Office director Donald Kerr acknowledged the incident had taken place a week after media reports but said it did not damage the satellites.
Some analysts have suggested that these events constitute low-power demonstrations of China’s anti-satellite laser weapon systems, while others said that the military was simply tracking and measuring US spy satellites to calculate their precise orbits.
Chinese military experts have said that Beijing does not yet possess the capability to destroy a satellite with high-powered lasers.
“The PLA is studying two technologies to jam spy satellites: ground-based high-energy laser and electromagnetic wave,” said a former military official, who asked not to be named. “The electromagnetic wave systems have been tested in military exercises but the laser technology is still under development.”
Over the years, China’s high-energy laser system has attracted much attention from Western security experts.
“Future Military Capabilities and Strategy of the People’s Republic of China”, a 1998 report to the US Congress, stated: “China already may possess the capability to damage, under specific conditions, optical sensors on satellites that are very vulnerable to damage by lasers.
“Given China’s current interest in laser technology, it is reasonable to assume that Beijing would develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future.”
Andrei Chang, chief editor of Canada-based Kanwa Defence Review, said while the PLA had indicated a huge interest in developing anti-satellite capabilities, so far it had not yet demonstrated it had acquired the necessary technology.
“Laser technology could be developed into a powerful weapon to dazzle satellites and even destroy aircraft flying in outer space,” Chang said. “The PLA has issued many reports on this but so far we haven’t seen it being used. They have other more mature [anti-satellite] weapons, such as long-range missiles.”
In January 2007, the PLA successfully shot down one of its own weather satellites with a ballistic missile - making it the third nation, after the US and Russia, to have mastered the technology.
The test sent a ripple throughout the security world, with Washington expressing concerns.
China’s military space effort grabbed world attention last week when air force chief Xu said it was imperative that China developed space weapons.
Xu was the first top military officer to deviate from Beijing’s official line - that China has peaceful space ambitions - and his comments provoked broad interest.
The general later backtracked on his comments and Hu Jintao tried to allay fears by pledging that Beijing’s space policy was non-violent.
“China will unswervingly uphold a national defence policy that is defensive in nature, and will never seek military expansion and an arms race, and will never constitute a military threat to any other country,” the president told heads of 30 air force delegations in Beijing.
To many military observers, the general was simply stating a fact.
Over the years, the PLA has been trying hard to close the gap in space technology with the runaway leader - the US.
Western observers say they have been impressed by Beijing’s space technology achievements over the past decade, even though it still lags far behind Washington’s.
Apart from anti-satellite missiles and high-powered lasers, China has developed its own satellite navigation and positioning system - the Beidou, or Compass, network. It came into limited service last year. Once it is completed in 2020, it could rival the American GPS (Global Positioning System) in capability and range.
This is quite an achievement considering that only the US and Russia have independent satellite positioning systems.
Europe’s Galileo network is still in the experimental stage. In 2003, China became the third nation to put a man into the space. It successfully sent two missions of five astronauts into space in 2005 and 2008 and aims to build its own space station.
However, while its developments have obvious commercial and scientific benefits, they can also be easily converted into military purposes.
“In aerospace technology, it’s very difficult to draw a line between military and civilian purposes,” said Xu Guangyu, a retired PLA general. “A satellite or a flying instrument could be either used for weather observation or military surveillance. It all depends on what missions you want it to carry out.”
This blurred line explains why the space push has attracted such huge interest.
Colonel Andrii Bilenkyi, a defence attache with the Ukrainian embassy in Beijing, said his country would want to know more about China’s space intentions.
“China is going into space exploitation, but we don’t really have much information about their real progress,” he said. “Ukraine is worried about the arms race in space because it is very dangerous and will lead to all kinds of uncertainties in the international community.”
Observers warn it is too easy to dismiss Hu’s pledge as mere rhetoric.
China does not want to be perceived as the country starting a space arms race, and has real concerns about entering one.
For one thing it would only fuel the “China threat theory”, something Beijing has gone to great pains to avoid.
Furthermore, Chinese leaders also want to steer clear of the mistakes made by the former Soviet Union - whose expensive arms race with the US drained its limited resources and partially caused its collapse.
“Chinese leaders are no fools,” said the unnamed former military officer. “We are realistic and we know we are not the US. We don’t have to be ready to engage in war everywhere in the world.”
He said many of China’s space projects were for purely commercial purposes.
Xu, the retired PLA general, agreed. He said while China could certainly allocate more resources to its military, there were limitations.
“We will need to increase our current military budget by up to four times to meet [the demands] of our military development,” he said.
But even if China increased its military budget significantly, it would still be far behind the US effort.
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West suspects Beijing has developed space-age arms, despite Hu’s denials
Military observers say satellite image confirms suspicions about PLA capabilities
Minnie Chan
10 November 2009
As President Hu Jintao met international air force delegations last week and attempted to ease growing concerns over perceived Chinese ambitions to weaponise space, Western security experts were poring over a satellite image that purportedly shows a new anti-satellite laser weapon site in Xinjiang.
The debate started when IMINT and Analysis, a military analysis website, posted the satellite image last week, believing it shows an anti-satellite weapon site.
It claimed that the camouflaged buildings in the Tianshan mountain range of the northwestern autonomous region housed an armament that potentially could “dazzle, blind, or destroy a satellite”.
The report was picked up by many security websites and the media. While the picture does show some features resembling a high-energy laser installation, most experts could not decide if it was a stargazing centre, a range finder or a weapons site as the website claimed.
Air force commander General Xu Qiliang rejected the claims on Sunday.
Speaking at a forum commemorating the 60th anniversary of People’s Liberation Army Air Force, Xu did not deny the existence of the site but refused to disclose its function other than to say it was for peaceful purposes.
“This is their [Western media] interpretation,” he said. “But in fact we only use it for peaceful purposes. China has a number of satellites and we need to keep checking and maintaining these satellites.”
This is not the first time Chinese high-energy laser installations have caught Western security attention and raised concerns over the weaponisation of space.
A US government agency revealed in 2006 that China had directed a ground-based laser at American spy satellites over its territory.
The Pentagon’s National Reconnaissance Office director Donald Kerr acknowledged the incident had taken place a week after media reports but said it did not damage the satellites.
Some analysts have suggested that these events constitute low-power demonstrations of China’s anti-satellite laser weapon systems, while others said that the military was simply tracking and measuring US spy satellites to calculate their precise orbits.
Chinese military experts have said that Beijing does not yet possess the capability to destroy a satellite with high-powered lasers.
“The PLA is studying two technologies to jam spy satellites: ground-based high-energy laser and electromagnetic wave,” said a former military official, who asked not to be named. “The electromagnetic wave systems have been tested in military exercises but the laser technology is still under development.”
Over the years, China’s high-energy laser system has attracted much attention from Western security experts.
“Future Military Capabilities and Strategy of the People’s Republic of China”, a 1998 report to the US Congress, stated: “China already may possess the capability to damage, under specific conditions, optical sensors on satellites that are very vulnerable to damage by lasers.
“Given China’s current interest in laser technology, it is reasonable to assume that Beijing would develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future.”
Andrei Chang, chief editor of Canada-based Kanwa Defence Review, said while the PLA had indicated a huge interest in developing anti-satellite capabilities, so far it had not yet demonstrated it had acquired the necessary technology.
“Laser technology could be developed into a powerful weapon to dazzle satellites and even destroy aircraft flying in outer space,” Chang said. “The PLA has issued many reports on this but so far we haven’t seen it being used. They have other more mature [anti-satellite] weapons, such as long-range missiles.”
In January 2007, the PLA successfully shot down one of its own weather satellites with a ballistic missile - making it the third nation, after the US and Russia, to have mastered the technology.
The test sent a ripple throughout the security world, with Washington expressing concerns.
China’s military space effort grabbed world attention last week when air force chief Xu said it was imperative that China developed space weapons.
Xu was the first top military officer to deviate from Beijing’s official line - that China has peaceful space ambitions - and his comments provoked broad interest.
The general later backtracked on his comments and Hu Jintao tried to allay fears by pledging that Beijing’s space policy was non-violent.
“China will unswervingly uphold a national defence policy that is defensive in nature, and will never seek military expansion and an arms race, and will never constitute a military threat to any other country,” the president told heads of 30 air force delegations in Beijing.
To many military observers, the general was simply stating a fact.
Over the years, the PLA has been trying hard to close the gap in space technology with the runaway leader - the US.
Western observers say they have been impressed by Beijing’s space technology achievements over the past decade, even though it still lags far behind Washington’s.
Apart from anti-satellite missiles and high-powered lasers, China has developed its own satellite navigation and positioning system - the Beidou, or Compass, network. It came into limited service last year. Once it is completed in 2020, it could rival the American GPS (Global Positioning System) in capability and range.
This is quite an achievement considering that only the US and Russia have independent satellite positioning systems.
Europe’s Galileo network is still in the experimental stage. In 2003, China became the third nation to put a man into the space. It successfully sent two missions of five astronauts into space in 2005 and 2008 and aims to build its own space station.
However, while its developments have obvious commercial and scientific benefits, they can also be easily converted into military purposes.
“In aerospace technology, it’s very difficult to draw a line between military and civilian purposes,” said Xu Guangyu, a retired PLA general. “A satellite or a flying instrument could be either used for weather observation or military surveillance. It all depends on what missions you want it to carry out.”
This blurred line explains why the space push has attracted such huge interest.
Colonel Andrii Bilenkyi, a defence attache with the Ukrainian embassy in Beijing, said his country would want to know more about China’s space intentions.
“China is going into space exploitation, but we don’t really have much information about their real progress,” he said. “Ukraine is worried about the arms race in space because it is very dangerous and will lead to all kinds of uncertainties in the international community.”
Observers warn it is too easy to dismiss Hu’s pledge as mere rhetoric.
China does not want to be perceived as the country starting a space arms race, and has real concerns about entering one.
For one thing it would only fuel the “China threat theory”, something Beijing has gone to great pains to avoid.
Furthermore, Chinese leaders also want to steer clear of the mistakes made by the former Soviet Union - whose expensive arms race with the US drained its limited resources and partially caused its collapse.
“Chinese leaders are no fools,” said the unnamed former military officer. “We are realistic and we know we are not the US. We don’t have to be ready to engage in war everywhere in the world.”
He said many of China’s space projects were for purely commercial purposes.
Xu, the retired PLA general, agreed. He said while China could certainly allocate more resources to its military, there were limitations.
“We will need to increase our current military budget by up to four times to meet [the demands] of our military development,” he said.
But even if China increased its military budget significantly, it would still be far behind the US effort.
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