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Sunday 8 November 2009
Has landslide threat halted dam’s finale?
Yunyang government admitted on its website that the frequent occurrences of landslides had alarmed the central government. What is clear is that the dam, a source of national pride, is now a headache for many.
September 15 marked a pivotal moment in the history of the Three Gorges Dam. Sluice gates were to be lowered, and over the next six weeks waters raised 19 metres to the final level of 175 metres.
After 17 years and at least 180 billion yuan (HK$204 billion), this was to be the icing on the cake.
Things started smoothly. By October 23, the water had reached 170 metres and excited state media reporters descended on Sandouping in the western part of Hubei, to report on the historic final five metres.
Then, everything stopped.
Dam authorities offered no explanation. This was surprising because, after all, nothing had stopped them in the past 17 years. They had overcome opposition from nearly 1,000 National People’s Congress delegates, blown away 100 million cubic metres of rock and driven more than a million people from their homes.
A drought in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River was widely recognised as a major reason for halting the operation. But now another factor has emerged - landslides.
Some scientists say that as water rises the equilibrium of the soil structure on the banks is destroyed.
This raises the risk of landslides that could bury thousands on the crowded slopes of the Three Gorges Reservoir. For this reason residents and even some officials around the reservoir have opposed raising the water to the highest level.
On October 13, Quchi town in Chongqing municipality issued an orange alert after a huge build-up of earth on slopes above the town that was liable to collapse at any moment, according to Outlook, a magazine run by Xinhua. The report quoted Xu Xingjian, a landslide expert in Chongqing, saying that if water continued to rise, the town of 3,000 must evacuate.
Wang Bolin , party secretary of the town, said they had nowhere to go because the few safe spots in the area had long been occupied by other villages. The residents moved to Quchi 10 years ago when their old town was submerged.
More than 200 residential areas like Quchi are threatened by landslides, according to Xinhua. An anonymous government official in Yunyang county told Caijing magazine that alerts and evacuations were happening more frequently.
Representatives of Chongqing’s People’s Political Consultative Conference launched a study into the relationship between landslides and rising water, and warned that over the next one to three years the dam area would face a surge of landslides once the water reached 175 metres.
Yang Yong , a Sichuan -based geologist critical of the dam, said roads and dams destroyed stable structures in nature and caused accidents. “After the Sichuan earthquake, the worst-hit areas were those that had undergone the most extensive landscape-altering construction.”
Yang warned that water levels would fluctuate by 30 metres each year, which would disturb the banks.
Some scientists are less pessimistic and say the landslides are a temporary phenomenon. Once the initial difficult period is over, residents would no longer face a threat that has plagued the area for tens of thousands of years.
Zhang Boting , deputy secretary general of the China Society for Hydropower Engineering, said scientists and engineers had anticipated the increase in landslides.
“The Three Gorges Dam converts the Yangtze River’s enormous power, which used to be destructive to the banks and cause landslides, into electricity. Most landslide issues are water issues. Once the water calms down the landslides disappear. Every dam proves this,” he said. “The government has spent billions of yuan to set up a monitoring network. Professional geologists are keeping their eyes wide open at every residential spot. Whenever a threat takes shape an alarm will be raised.
“I am sure that in the Three Gorges area, not a single person will be killed by landslides during this period.”
But a landslide expert in the government painted a gloomier picture. From October 17 to 22, just before the rising waters were halted, Wang Min, vice-minister of Land and Resources and the ministry’s chief engineer, Zhang Hongtao, rushed to hold an emergency meeting with Chongqing officials after a massive landslide.
Zhang warned that landslides would be a “permanent theme” and local governments should brace for a “lasting battle”.
Officials said many local governments lacked the funding to stabilise all dangerous slopes. They warned that in addition to slopes already recognised as posing a danger, others had emerged as vulnerable since water levels had started to rise.
According to a report posted on the website of Chongqing’s Yunyang county government, there have been landslides in more than 100 new vulnerable slopes since September.
Eyebrows were raised at the timing of the final push in raising the water, coming as it did despite problems such as landslides. There were suggestions the dam authorities rushed things before the celebrations to mark the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic to ensure they had good news to report to Beijing.
Pan Jiazheng, the project’s top engineer, told China National Radio in August that reaching the 175-metre level would be “the perfect gift for the 60th anniversary”.
Yunyang government admitted on its website that the frequent occurrences of landslides had alarmed the central government. What is clear is that the dam, a source of national pride, is now a headache for many.
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Has landslide threat halted dam’s finale?
Stephen Chen
08 November 2009
September 15 marked a pivotal moment in the history of the Three Gorges Dam. Sluice gates were to be lowered, and over the next six weeks waters raised 19 metres to the final level of 175 metres.
After 17 years and at least 180 billion yuan (HK$204 billion), this was to be the icing on the cake.
Things started smoothly. By October 23, the water had reached 170 metres and excited state media reporters descended on Sandouping in the western part of Hubei, to report on the historic final five metres.
Then, everything stopped.
Dam authorities offered no explanation. This was surprising because, after all, nothing had stopped them in the past 17 years. They had overcome opposition from nearly 1,000 National People’s Congress delegates, blown away 100 million cubic metres of rock and driven more than a million people from their homes.
A drought in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River was widely recognised as a major reason for halting the operation. But now another factor has emerged - landslides.
Some scientists say that as water rises the equilibrium of the soil structure on the banks is destroyed.
This raises the risk of landslides that could bury thousands on the crowded slopes of the Three Gorges Reservoir. For this reason residents and even some officials around the reservoir have opposed raising the water to the highest level.
On October 13, Quchi town in Chongqing municipality issued an orange alert after a huge build-up of earth on slopes above the town that was liable to collapse at any moment, according to Outlook, a magazine run by Xinhua. The report quoted Xu Xingjian, a landslide expert in Chongqing, saying that if water continued to rise, the town of 3,000 must evacuate.
Wang Bolin , party secretary of the town, said they had nowhere to go because the few safe spots in the area had long been occupied by other villages. The residents moved to Quchi 10 years ago when their old town was submerged.
More than 200 residential areas like Quchi are threatened by landslides, according to Xinhua. An anonymous government official in Yunyang county told Caijing magazine that alerts and evacuations were happening more frequently.
Representatives of Chongqing’s People’s Political Consultative Conference launched a study into the relationship between landslides and rising water, and warned that over the next one to three years the dam area would face a surge of landslides once the water reached 175 metres.
Yang Yong , a Sichuan -based geologist critical of the dam, said roads and dams destroyed stable structures in nature and caused accidents. “After the Sichuan earthquake, the worst-hit areas were those that had undergone the most extensive landscape-altering construction.”
Yang warned that water levels would fluctuate by 30 metres each year, which would disturb the banks.
Some scientists are less pessimistic and say the landslides are a temporary phenomenon. Once the initial difficult period is over, residents would no longer face a threat that has plagued the area for tens of thousands of years.
Zhang Boting , deputy secretary general of the China Society for Hydropower Engineering, said scientists and engineers had anticipated the increase in landslides.
“The Three Gorges Dam converts the Yangtze River’s enormous power, which used to be destructive to the banks and cause landslides, into electricity. Most landslide issues are water issues. Once the water calms down the landslides disappear. Every dam proves this,” he said. “The government has spent billions of yuan to set up a monitoring network. Professional geologists are keeping their eyes wide open at every residential spot. Whenever a threat takes shape an alarm will be raised.
“I am sure that in the Three Gorges area, not a single person will be killed by landslides during this period.”
But a landslide expert in the government painted a gloomier picture. From October 17 to 22, just before the rising waters were halted, Wang Min, vice-minister of Land and Resources and the ministry’s chief engineer, Zhang Hongtao, rushed to hold an emergency meeting with Chongqing officials after a massive landslide.
Zhang warned that landslides would be a “permanent theme” and local governments should brace for a “lasting battle”.
Officials said many local governments lacked the funding to stabilise all dangerous slopes. They warned that in addition to slopes already recognised as posing a danger, others had emerged as vulnerable since water levels had started to rise.
According to a report posted on the website of Chongqing’s Yunyang county government, there have been landslides in more than 100 new vulnerable slopes since September.
Eyebrows were raised at the timing of the final push in raising the water, coming as it did despite problems such as landslides. There were suggestions the dam authorities rushed things before the celebrations to mark the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic to ensure they had good news to report to Beijing.
Pan Jiazheng, the project’s top engineer, told China National Radio in August that reaching the 175-metre level would be “the perfect gift for the 60th anniversary”.
Yunyang government admitted on its website that the frequent occurrences of landslides had alarmed the central government. What is clear is that the dam, a source of national pride, is now a headache for many.
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