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Sunday 4 October 2009
Hu may be wanting to maintain military hold
However, there is no such convention for the chairman of the military commission, and both Mao and Deng continued to serve in that post into their 80s; Jiang was in his late 70s before stepping down.
More than three decades after China adopted a policy of ‘reform and opening up,’ it continues to be almost as opaque as ever where political decision-making processes are concerned.
This is because the ‘opening up’ applies only to the economic realm. For example, before the holding of the annual plenary session of the Communist Party’s Central Committee last week, China-watchers were almost unanimous in predicting that Vice-President Xi Jinping would be promoted during the session and made a vice-chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission.
President Hu Jintao is the chairman and making Mr. Xi vice-chairman would confirm expectations that he is the heir apparent. Well, that didn’t happen. As a result, attention has shifted to why Mr. Xi was not promoted.
Various possibilities are being considered. They range from Mr. Hu resisting efforts to have Mr. Xi confirmed as his successor to speculation that the party may be going towards greater democracy and that future leaders will be chosen by election.
What it boils down to is that the party is still evolving institutions for transitioning from one leader to another. This has always been a problem in Communist countries.
In China, the first-generation leader, chairman Mao Zedong, served for life, holding power from 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was established, until his death in 1976.
Mao had previously removed one handpicked successor after another. Liu Shaoqi died in prison in 1969 after being purged in the Cultural Revolution.
The next successor, Lin Biao, was killed in a plane crash, ostensibly while trying to flee to the Soviet Union after failing in an attempt to assassinate Mao.
Deng Xiaoping, who became China’s leader after edging aside Mao’s last handpicked successor, Hua Guofeng, also got rid of two intended successors, Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang, with the latter kept under house arrest from 1989 until his death in 2005.
Indeed, the transition from Jiang Zemin - endorsed by Deng after Zhao’s downfall - to the current leader, Hu Jintao, was the first in the People’s Republic’s history to have been achieved peacefully, without death or violence.
Mr. Hu, too, was chosen by Deng as the leader of China’s fourth generation, succeeding Jiang.
That is why Mr. Hu’s actions are being so carefully scrutinised now to see if he is strengthening the creation of institutions that would result in greater transparency and stability, or the opposite.
The failure of Mr. Xi to be made a vice-chairman of the military commission has spurred speculation that Mr. Hu may be unwilling to make way for his successor, or at least that he may want to cling on to his position as head of the military commission, one of his three posts: party leader, head of state and commander in chief.
Mao had said that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun and that the party must always command the gun and must not allow the gun to control the party.
True, Deng remained chairman of the military commission even after he gave up his party and governmental posts and Jiang remained head of the commission until two years after Hu became the party leader.
But Deng belonged to the era of strongmen, who did not owe their power to their titles. Jiang belonged to the post-revolutionary generation and would have had no power if bereft of official positions.
And during the two years when he commanded the military while Mr. Hu led the party, there were whispers of ‘two centres of power’.
Under the state constitution, the president is limited to two five-year terms, which means that Mr. Hu must step down in 2013. Moreover, a recently established convention is that no one aged 68 or above can be elected to the Politburo standing committee.
This means that he must step down as general secretary no later than 2012, at the party’s 18th congress, when he will already be 71.
However, there is no such convention for the chairman of the military commission, and both Mao and Deng continued to serve in that post into their 80s; Jiang was in his late 70s before stepping down.
So Mr. Hu may well be able to justify clinging onto that position, especially if the new party leader, Mr. Xi, has little experience on that commission. So Mr. Hu, by keeping Mr. Xi off the commission as long as possible, may be better able to justify his own hold on power.
But that would certainly be at the expense of China’s political stability and harmony.
The writer is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator
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Hu may be wanting to maintain military hold
By FRANK CHING
02 October 2009
More than three decades after China adopted a policy of ‘reform and opening up,’ it continues to be almost as opaque as ever where political decision-making processes are concerned.
This is because the ‘opening up’ applies only to the economic realm. For example, before the holding of the annual plenary session of the Communist Party’s Central Committee last week, China-watchers were almost unanimous in predicting that Vice-President Xi Jinping would be promoted during the session and made a vice-chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission.
President Hu Jintao is the chairman and making Mr. Xi vice-chairman would confirm expectations that he is the heir apparent. Well, that didn’t happen. As a result, attention has shifted to why Mr. Xi was not promoted.
Various possibilities are being considered. They range from Mr. Hu resisting efforts to have Mr. Xi confirmed as his successor to speculation that the party may be going towards greater democracy and that future leaders will be chosen by election.
What it boils down to is that the party is still evolving institutions for transitioning from one leader to another. This has always been a problem in Communist countries.
In China, the first-generation leader, chairman Mao Zedong, served for life, holding power from 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was established, until his death in 1976.
Mao had previously removed one handpicked successor after another. Liu Shaoqi died in prison in 1969 after being purged in the Cultural Revolution.
The next successor, Lin Biao, was killed in a plane crash, ostensibly while trying to flee to the Soviet Union after failing in an attempt to assassinate Mao.
Deng Xiaoping, who became China’s leader after edging aside Mao’s last handpicked successor, Hua Guofeng, also got rid of two intended successors, Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang, with the latter kept under house arrest from 1989 until his death in 2005.
Indeed, the transition from Jiang Zemin - endorsed by Deng after Zhao’s downfall - to the current leader, Hu Jintao, was the first in the People’s Republic’s history to have been achieved peacefully, without death or violence.
Mr. Hu, too, was chosen by Deng as the leader of China’s fourth generation, succeeding Jiang.
That is why Mr. Hu’s actions are being so carefully scrutinised now to see if he is strengthening the creation of institutions that would result in greater transparency and stability, or the opposite.
The failure of Mr. Xi to be made a vice-chairman of the military commission has spurred speculation that Mr. Hu may be unwilling to make way for his successor, or at least that he may want to cling on to his position as head of the military commission, one of his three posts: party leader, head of state and commander in chief.
Mao had said that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun and that the party must always command the gun and must not allow the gun to control the party.
True, Deng remained chairman of the military commission even after he gave up his party and governmental posts and Jiang remained head of the commission until two years after Hu became the party leader.
But Deng belonged to the era of strongmen, who did not owe their power to their titles. Jiang belonged to the post-revolutionary generation and would have had no power if bereft of official positions.
And during the two years when he commanded the military while Mr. Hu led the party, there were whispers of ‘two centres of power’.
Under the state constitution, the president is limited to two five-year terms, which means that Mr. Hu must step down in 2013. Moreover, a recently established convention is that no one aged 68 or above can be elected to the Politburo standing committee.
This means that he must step down as general secretary no later than 2012, at the party’s 18th congress, when he will already be 71.
However, there is no such convention for the chairman of the military commission, and both Mao and Deng continued to serve in that post into their 80s; Jiang was in his late 70s before stepping down.
So Mr. Hu may well be able to justify clinging onto that position, especially if the new party leader, Mr. Xi, has little experience on that commission. So Mr. Hu, by keeping Mr. Xi off the commission as long as possible, may be better able to justify his own hold on power.
But that would certainly be at the expense of China’s political stability and harmony.
The writer is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator
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