Crazy days we’re living in. As I write this, things are terrible. Not just terrible … so terrible that stock exchanges faced the possibility of calling in the financial riot police -- circuit-breaker rules -- to shut down markets if things get too rowdy.
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One Reason Stocks Are Crashing
Morgan Housel
October 24, 2008
Crazy days we’re living in. As I write this, things are terrible. Not just terrible … so terrible that stock exchanges faced the possibility of calling in the financial riot police -- circuit-breaker rules -- to shut down markets if things get too rowdy.
That hasn’t happened quite yet, and to be honest, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen before the day’s out. 1,000-point drop? 1,000-point gain? Odds of each happening seem just as likely these days. The VIX “volatility index” stopped just short of 90 this morning -- by far an all-time high, and an absolutely unthinkable reading until recently.
Well, yeah, the economy’s a mess
But, come on, I’ll be impressed if someone can give a rational explanation for why the intrinsic value of Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was worth 6% less this morning than it was yesterday. Or why the long-term value of Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) suddenly dropped 7% this week over last. They couldn’t do it. There’s little, if any, explanation for the volatility.
Something else is lurking around markets right now, shaking things apart at a furious pace. But what? Here’s one reason that sticks out in my mind.
Hedge funds
Coming off one of their worst months ever, hedge funds -- which control (well, controlled) trillions of dollars of capital -- are facing an onslaught of redemptions from investors who either need their money back to cover their own losses, or are scared out of their minds now that their once-stable returns have turned against them.
Either way, when clients yank money out, legions of former master-of-the-universe managers start selling untold amounts of money indiscriminately and, on days like today, all at the same time.
On top of that, most hedge funds have what are called “high-water marks,” meaning the fund manager has to make up losses before they can charge performance fees in the future.
The average hedge fund is down 17.6% year to date, meaning most funds have to score considerable gains from today’s levels before a manager could start charging performance fees again. Connect the dots, and you get a situation where even hedge funds that aren’t facing client redemptions have an incentive to shut down. When they shut down, they sell. Everything. Quickly. And the results can equal downright hysteria.
How bad can it get?
One of the most outspoken voices of how apocalyptic things might get is NYU professor Nouriel Roubini. He saw most of this coming years ago, but no one took him too seriously until recently, when his predictions became true.
What’s he saying now? Earlier this week, Roubini predicted, “There will be massive dumping of assets … hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust.” Gulp. He followed up by saying, “We’re seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds … don’t be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days.”
I hope he’s wrong, but honestly, betting against Roubini has been a losing battle lately. The important thing to keep in mind is that, if that situation were to occur, it’d create what would undoubtedly be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
If you’re hell-bent on weathering this storm and holding your investments for years to come, you have little to worry about. If you stick to underleveraged, high-quality, cash-rich names such as Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) or Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), you’ll almost certainly find yourself in a much better position five or ten years down the road.
Bubbles burst. Panics create opportunities. Patience pays.
US public pension funds face big losses
By Deborah Brewster in New York
October 26 2008
Public pension funds in US states are facing their worst year of losses in history, exacerbating existing funding shortfalls and putting pressure on state governments to shore them up.
In the nine months to the end of September, the average state pension fund lost 14.8 per cent, according to Northern Trust, a fund company. The loss has grown since, as financial markets slumped further in October. The previous highest loss for state funds was 7.9 per cent for the full year in 2002.
California’s Calpers, the US’s biggest pension fund, last week reported a loss of 20 per cent of its assets, or more than $40bn, between July 1 and October 20 this year.
State and local pension funds comprise a patchwork of 2,700 funds that manage $1,400bn on behalf of 21m employees, including teachers, firefighters and other municipal workers.
About 40 per cent are underfunded, meaning that they would not be able to pay the future pensions that employees have been promised. State governments have lifted pension benefits – a move that is politically popular – but have often failed to put in more money to pay for them.
Richard Daley, mayor of Chicago, this year convened a taskforce to address the shortfalls in Illinois funds. For example, funding for the Police Fund has fallen to less than 50 per cent.
A Chicago police officer told the Financial Times: “We are risking our lives here every day, but we have no idea if the pension we have been guaranteed will be there when we retire.” The officer called on the city to start contributing more to the fund.
Susan Uhran, managing director of the Pew Center on the states, said: “They [the states] will have to increase their annual contributions, and they may also ask employees to lift their contributions too.”
“This is going to be a vicious cycle of pressure on pension funds,” said Greg Pai, managing director of Paradigm, a money manager. “They have previously looked to state and corporate subsidies, but . . . [state governments] have lower tax revenue and are under pressure to cut costs.”
Many states face their own budget crunches, and members of Congress are pushing for a second fiscal stimulus package, in part to alleviate some of the pressures on state funding. Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, cited money lost from pension funds in her push this month for the $150bn second stimulus.
But the funds themselves have limited options, said Mr Pai. Many are under pressure to move away from shares into less risky investments, but that would mean reducing returns.
Critics say the underfunding is worse than official data show. The calculation is based on an assumption of annual returns of 8 per cent, but few funds will reach that in the next few years.
Foreclosures in California on steep rise
James Temple
October 24, 2008
Nearly 80,000 California homes fell into foreclosure during the past three months, a more than threefold year-to-year increase that suggests numerous government interventions and industry promises have done little so far to help struggling borrowers hold onto their keys.
The news of the unrelenting rise came on the same day that the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. told Congress that the government should do more to help those at risk of defaulting on their mortgages.
Statewide, the number of homes repossessed soared 228.4 percent over last year to 79,511 during the third quarter, according to MDA DataQuick. That's the largest number of foreclosures since the San Diego research firm began tracking foreclosures in 1988.
Across the nine-county Bay Area, 12,093 homes fell into foreclosure, up 273 percent. Contra Costa County saw the most foreclosures, 3,662, and Santa Clara County experienced the biggest increase, 428 percent. Marin and San Francisco counties registered the fewest trustee deeds, 149 and 192, respectively.
"There's nothing in there that makes me say, 'Wow, look, some of these government programs are having a big effect,' " said Andrew LePage, an analyst with DataQuick. It is possible, he said, that the numbers would have been worse without Uncle Sam's efforts to encourage lenders to refinance loans to make them more affordable.
A glimmer of good news was that the pace of the increase in regional and statewide foreclosures slowed, and the number of defaults, the first step in foreclosure proceedings, appear to have leveled off.
California notices of default reached 94,240 during the quarter, up 29.9 percent from a year ago and down 22.5 percent from the preceding quarter. But the sequential decline, the first since the second quarter of 2005, largely reflects a procedural change in California's formal foreclosure process that took effect in September, DataQuick said.
30-day notice
A law signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in July requires lenders to contact homeowners 30 days before filing a notice of default. Without that, the numbers would have been about the same as in the second quarter, the research firm estimates.
In the Bay Area, mortgage companies filed 15,027 notices of default, up 44.1 percent from the prior year and down 18.8 percent from the prior quarter. Roughly 80 percent of borrowers who go into default ultimately lose their homes to foreclosure, according to DataQuick.
Larry Golecki of Vallejo, who is two months behind on his mortgage, is among those who received default notices.
Golecki, 58, has owned his home for 29 years. He refinanced in 2001 as part of a divorce settlement and again in 2006 because he needed money for a new roof and other repairs. He owes $293,943, but the home's value has fallen to about $230,000.
Last year, Golecki was laid off from his welding job. His income from a pension and Social Security is $1,849. He was able to keep up with his $2,227 mortgage payment by tapping his savings, but eventually he depleted them. Golecki is enrolled in a state training program to be a welding inspector and hopes to find a job next year.
"Once I get working, there's no problem paying" the mortgage, he said. He said he repeatedly contacted his loan servicer, Litton Loan Servicing of San Antonio, Texas, asking for assistance in modifying his loan or forbearance until he finds work. "No human being has ever called me back," he said. "It's just a bunch of damn recordings saying I owe them money."
Last week, he received a "notice of intent to accelerate default action," which means if he does not catch up on his missed payments, Litton could require that he pay the entire amount owed on the mortgage, almost $300,000.
Litton declined to discuss Golecki's case, citing privacy concerns. "My company is committed to assisting customers with a variety of loss-mitigation options to avoid foreclosures and to retain home ownership," a spokesman said.
On Thursday, Golecki said Litton called him within minutes of being contacted by a Chronicle reporter and promised to call back with some options. "This is the first time a person called me," he said.
LePage said the slowing increase in default notices could reflect several things: moderation in the number of homeowners falling behind on their payments, mortgage companies struggling to keep up with their filings, or more instances of lenders agreeing to short sales, when a home is sold for less than the amount owed on the loan. It's too early to know whether the change in the state law will result in more loan workouts that keep people in their homes or simply will delay filings, he said.
Complicating conundrums
When will foreclosures begin to slow in a meaningful way?
Observers say that several chicken-or-egg conundrums are complicating the challenge of reaching the bottom of this housing cycle: People are reluctant to buy homes until they see prices stabilize, but it's hard for prices to firm up when fewer people are buying - at least outside the fringe regions that have seen the steepest declines.
At the same time, foreclosures are driving down home values, while falling home values are leading to more foreclosures. As borrowers witness a widening gap between what they owe on their loan and what their home is worth, they become more inclined to simply hand over the keys and walk away.
"There has to be some sign it's coming to an end before we'll see any real recovery," said Michael Carney, director of the Real Estate Research Council of Northern California. "Now what would cause home prices to start to look like they'll level off, I don't know."
Moody's Economy.com has been predicting that nationwide foreclosures will climax in the second or third quarter of next year, at about 1.2 percent of all mortgages. Given the heightened market turmoil of the last month and a half, the West Chester, Pa., research company may revise its estimates to one more quarter and 1.5 percent, Economy.com economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos said.
To date, most of the programs enacted through the $700 billion federal bailout package have been directed at loosening credit markets and propping up the banking industry. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday that the bill grants the government authority to help borrowers by using loan guarantees to encourage mortgage servicers to refinance shaky loans. Under such a program, the government would share any losses on the new loans with the lenders, though it would also partake in the gains.
FHA program
The Federal Housing Administration began a similar program this month under the Housing Economic Recovery Act passed in July. The $300 billion Hope for Homeowners plan allows banks to refinance certain mortgages into fixed-rate FHA loans if they write down the amount to 90 percent of the new appraised value of the home. The FHA agrees to cover the unpaid balance if the loans go into foreclosure. The early results for the program haven't been disclosed.
These measures followed a variety of earlier federal and state efforts to stem foreclosures, often by encouraging lenders to voluntarily refinance at-risk borrowers.
Carbacho-Burgos said these efforts may help insulated regions just starting to experience significant drops in home values, but believes more aggressive programs will be necessary to restart the hardest hit markets in places like Florida and California's Central Valley.
"I don't think the current relief efforts will be enough to sufficiently help these housing markets recover," he said. "We're need another set of stimulus bills aimed directly at the housing market (to prevent) foreclosures and short sales."
79,511 California homes foreclosed in last three months. By comparison:
63,321 Owner-occupied homes in Oakland
126,712 Owner-occupied homes in San Francisco
428% Santa Clara County had the Bay Area's biggest rise in foreclosures
Pilgrim's Pride at end of temporary credit line
By Emily Fredrix
October 26, 2008
Pilgrim's Pride at end of temporary credit line, so what's next for top US chicken producer?
MILWAUKEE (AP) -- The sky could be falling on Pilgrim's Pride Corp., the chicken industry's biggest producer.
With its temporary financing ending on Tuesday and credit markets tight all around, the company faces an uncertain future. Some analysts say it could file for bankruptcy, though Pilgrim's Pride has said that option is unlikely. Others say the company is ripe for a buyout, either in whole or in part, by competitors.
Whatever the case, analysts say Pilgrim's Pride, whose chairman has been with the company since its beginnings six decades ago, must change.
"We find it unlikely that the company, under pressure from its bankers and advice from its consultant, will continue in its current form," Deutsche Bank North America analyst Christina McGlone wrote last week. "Essentially, Pilgrim's Pride as we know it today will cease to exist."
Company spokesman Gary Rhodes said Pilgrim's Pride won't be making any comments. Earlier this month, he was widely quoted as saying that filing for bankruptcy wouldn't be in "anyone's best interest."
He told The Associated Press this month that the company was working on a plan to help it address industry woes like weak demand and pricing and an oversupply of chicken. He also said it was looking at opportunities to refinance and find more ways to operate more efficiently.
"We recognize that, given the recent uncertainty in the stock market and the credit markets, there will be speculation and rumors about Pilgrim's Pride," he wrote in an e-mail.
The company's stock tumbled sharply in late September on worries about its credit and future, and has nearly eroded. It closed Friday at $2.17, down 12.5 percent or 31 cents. It's down nearly 93 percent from its 52-week high of $30.15.
The entire meat industry is hurting, but Pilgrim's -- which has just under a quarter of the chicken market -- is perhaps more so because of its high debt rate and bad bets on hedging, analysts say.
Producers have seen their profit margins shrink as costs for commodities like corn and oil rose this year. They tried to hedge their purchases, but as those prices have moderated, some are losing money on the deals. Pilgrim's Pride cited hedging woes in predicting a "significant loss" for the fourth quarter last month.
Chicken producers can't pass through price increases due to an oversupply on the market and weakening demand. Much of that is from a loss of key business in restaurants as consumers opt to eat at home more often to save money.
Mike Cockrell, chief financial officer for Sanderson Farms Inc., said business is tough. It's prime wing eating season, he points out -- with fans watching football and the World Series -- but the down economy is keeping people from going out. Normally the company can't keep up with demand. Now they have truckloads of extras.
"Our whole industry is challenged right now," he said. "We got high corn and soybean meal prices and very, very weak domestic demand for chicken, particularly from the consumer who eats away from home."
Since much of the industry is hurting, it's not likely that Pilgrim's Pride's lenders would encourage it to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, said Barclays Capital analyst Christopher Bledsoe.
He said if that happened, the Pittsburg, Texas-based company would have to sell its assets, including chicken products, which would flood the market and push prices downward. That then would hurt competitors, many of whom receive financing from the same sources.
"If you're an agriculture lender like some of Pilgrim's Pride's lenders are, then you risk throwing your other customers, your other loans, into a further distressed situation," he said.
Tightening credit markets -- amid a weakening global economy -- are making it more difficult for many companies to get financing, particularly one like Pilgrim's Pride, Bledsoe said. The company carries a large debt load primarily from its $1.3 billion acquisition of rival Gold Kist Inc. in early 2007, which made it the nation's biggest chicken producer.
Instead, he said, the banks may prefer Pilgrim's Pride to be sold either outright or at least in part, preferably to someone with a stronger balance sheet.
Tyson Foods Inc., the second biggest chicken producer, has about $1.5 billion in liquidity, Bledsoe said, so it could afford to buy a portion of Pilgrim's Pride. A total buyout, which would put about 45 percent of the market into one company, wasn't likely to pass anti-trust clearance, he said.
Gary Mickelson, a spokesman for the Springdale, Ark.-based company, said Tyson had no comment.
Sanderson Farms, the nation's fourth-largest chicken producer with about 5.6 percent of the market, is widely considered a potential player. Earlier this month the Laurel, Miss.-based company filed a shelf registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell up to $1 billion in stock to potentially fund future acquisitions or other strategic opportunities.
Cockrell, Sanderson's CFO, said the company didn't have anything specific to say about potential buyouts -- of players big or small. But the company is examining its options.
"If assets became available no matter where they come from, we'll certainly look at them," he said.
Pilgrim's future no doubt must pass the muster of Lonnie "Bo" Pilgrim, the senior chairman of the board. Bledsoe said Pilgrim is the beneficial holder of a company that owns more than 30 percent of the stock and maintains voting rights over 60 percent of the company's stock.
His history with the company started when his brother, Aubrey Pilgrim, and a partner bought a feed and seed store in 1946. According to the company's Web site, Lonnie "Bo" Pilgrim soon joined on and took over as leader in 1966 after his brother's death.
He's been there as the company grew to reach sales of $7.6 billion in fiscal 2007. Pilgrim's Pride employs some 53,500 people in the U.S. and Mexico at about four dozen chicken processing and packaged-food plants, according to the Web site.
Despite the slumping economy, better days are expected for the chicken industry. Poultry companies are following through on production cuts, which will boost prices. Bledsoe said the number of eggs being laid for chickens -- a good indicator of chicken production -- is at its lowest year-over-year level of the decade and feed costs are down half from their highs earlier this year.
"That dynamic sets up for a period of pretty good profitability in chicken," he said.
Wall Street workers leaving NYC for fresh start
By Valerie Bauman
October 26, 2008
Amid downturn, Wall Streeters leaving NYC for smaller firms in other states, overseas
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -- Bankers and brokers looking to escape the financial meltdown are scrambling to relocate their families, possessions and rarified talent far from Wall Street to places such as Florida, Chicago, Milwaukee, Virginia and Asia.
Travis Lacey left investment bank Jeffries & Co. and Wall Street behind in September to work for Baird in Chicago. He also left behind the nagging sense of worry that had plagued him since his company had started announcing layoffs earlier in the year.
"Anyone in that environment, you never know what's going to happen," Lacey said. "There are a lot of good bankers that unfortunately are at the wrong place at the wrong time, especially in New York."
Corporate headhunters say Wall Street's malaise will lead to a permanent talent loss for New York. It could help small boutique firms become bigger players with employees they would never have been able to lure from the city long-regarded as the world's financial capital.
"We're definitely hiring," said Robert Escobio, chief executive officer of Coral Gables, Fla.-based Southern Trust Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and investment banking firm. "Right now we have the capital, and right now we're looking to expand. And I think that's what a lot of boutiques are looking to do, too."
Escobio said in the past few months, one out of every four or five resumes comes from top Wall Street firms -- compared with about one out of 100 in years past.
Former Wall Streeters also tend to bring clients with larger net worth -- another potential long-term blow to firms trying to recover from the meltdown -- so boutiques and middle market firms stand to reap the profits. In turn they deliver something that's currently elusive on Wall Street: stability. Jobs in the financial sector can pay anywhere from $100,000 to well into the seven-figure range depending on location, experience and the size of a firm, said Kimberly Bishop, vice chairman of Slayton Search partners, a Chicago-based headhunting firm.
"There's some talent available to some companies that wasn't available before," she said.
Wall Street workers who are thinking about relocating need to be flexible about income, Bishop said. Some junior Wall Street workers may be able to get more senior positions in smaller firms, getting comparable or better pay. But many more will make less while benefiting from a cheaper cost of living outside of New York City.
"They are going to make less, most of them," said Kurt Kraeger, the managing director of the New York Office of Robert Walters headhunting firm. "Even before this (economic downturn), the same type of positions overseas, let's say, did pay about 20 percent less than you would make here ... the people who go to smaller firms, often times the bonuses are smaller."
New York is the top paying state for personal financial advisers, with an average salary of $131,660, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics. Colorado followed, paying an average of $119,590, then Massachusetts, with an average pay of $116,170, according to the 2007 occupational employment survey.
Idaho was the lowest paying state for financial advisers, paying an average of $50,980. West Virginia, North Dakota, Alaska, Nebraska and Kentucky all follow, paying an average below $60,000 a year for the same job.
Middle market and boutique firms are also appealing because they offer increased job responsibility and freedom, said Peter Kies, a managing director at Robert W. Baird, a Milwaukee-based middle market firm.
"As every round of cuts occurred, we got an increasing flow of resumes," Kies said. "You can have a Wall Street kind of experience and live in Richmond, Milwaukee or Chicago."
Baird has seen roughly 50 percent more applications from Wall Street than they received last year, he said.
European and Asian banks are also seeing the abundance of workers as an opportunity to strengthen their position in the U.S. market.
"I'm noticing that people are willing to work places that they would have hung up on me if I had suggested it a year ago," Kraeger said of his headhunting work.
More bankers are willing to go to Asia than ever before because it is still viewed as an emerging market, said James Constable, owner of Albany Beck Consulting, an English headhunting firm that places financial workers in jobs from London to Singapore.
"Banks (in New York and London) are not looking to add to their work force in the short term," Constable said in an e-mail interview. "This means that the volume is down, so instead the banks are opting to hire one senior candidate rather than a number of more junior ones."
So far this month, Albany Beck has received 38 percent more resumes from Wall Street candidates willing to work overseas than they did in October of 2007, Constable said.
New York Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli expects 40,000 Wall Street jobs could be lost by the end of the year. So far he said 13,200 people have lost jobs in New York's financial sector since a year ago.
While some boutiques and middle market firms were hit hard by the economic downturn, larger banks had bought much more of the toxic mortgage-backed assets at the heart of the meltdown.
While headhunting to link new securities jobs with Wall Street casualties is one of the few growth industries these days, it's not easy, said Robin Judson, managing director of Smiths Hanley Associates LLC, a New York City hiring firm.
The finance job market is flooded with highly qualified executives and bankers, but "there aren't enough jobs to go around," Judson said.
Alpha Bank因为经营不善而倒闭，是美国今年第16间在金融风暴中问题的银行。。。
Alpha will reopen as Stearns
By Michelle E. Shaw
October 26, 2008
Come Monday morning, banking for customers of the former Alpha Bank and Trust should be back to normal, an FDIC official at the bank said Saturday.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. officials are spending the weekend combing through Alpha’s records so the institution can open Monday as Stearns Bank, said Linda Beavers, a regional ombudsman with the deposit insurance company. Some signs already had been changed by Saturday morning to reflect the new ownership.
Friday, FDIC and state officials closed Alpha’s Alpharetta and Marietta branches without warning. The closing limited some customers’ access to funds.
Attempts to contact bank officials on Saturday for comment were unsuccessful. A woman who answered the phone at the home of D. Michael Sleeth, listed as the chief financial officer and executive vice president of Alpha Bank, said he would have no comment.
According to the FDIC, Alpha Bank had total assets of $354.1 million and total deposits of $346.2 million as of Sept. 30.
Alpha also had approximately $16.8 million in brokered deposits that were not part of Friday’s transaction. The FDIC will pay the brokers directly for the amount of their insured funds, an FDIC news release said.
Alpha was the third bank failure in Georgia to follow the real estate slump, mortgage meltdown and credit crunch. Integrity Bank was shuttered in August. NetBank shut down in September 2007. All three banks were based in Alpharetta.
Beavers said she couldn’t say how many customers Alpha had, but the FDIC news release said at the time of closing, there were approximately $3.1 million in uninsured deposits held in approximately 59 accounts that potentially exceeded the insurance limits. This amount is an estimate that is likely to change once the FDIC obtains additional information from these customers, the release said.
Beavers said it is possible that all of the identified accounts will be fully insured because each person on the account is insured up to $250,000.
That is the case for Scott and Nancy Smith of Alpharetta, who have more than $250,000 in certificates of deposit. According to FDIC rules and regulations, the Smiths could have $500,000 in the bank and still be covered, so he is not worried, Scott Smith said.
Smith said he and his wife will continue to use community banks, even though two of the three where they have accounts, Alpha and Integrity, have been taken over.
“We just have to make sure the money is spread out,” he said.
Alpha was high on a recent list of banks with a disproportionate number of problem loans. Using the “Texas ratio,” which compares problem loans to capital and reserves available to absorb losses, FIG Partners calculated earlier this year that Alpha had the fourth- worst ratio among area banks, behind institutions in Suwanee, Loganville and Stockbridge.
终有蓝筹股“中招” 中信泰富炒外汇失手 惨蚀147亿元
《世界财经报道》( 日期：2008-10-21 09:30)财经头条
中信泰富（267）20日宣布，为对冲澳大利亚铁矿项目汇率风险，集团签订了多份累计杠杆式外汇买卖合约（相当于外汇Accumulator），但因澳元大跌，有关合约已录得约8亿元实现亏损，以目前汇率计算，至今年底的账面损失高达 147亿元。中信泰富也发出盈警，预料今年业绩将出现亏损。
(世界财经报道http://finance.icxo.com)消息，中信泰富严重亏损事件源于集团财务董事张立宪在未经主席批准下，进行有关外汇交易，张立宪连同财务总监周志贤已经请辞，并由莫伟龙接任财务董事。荣智健坦言，有关外汇合同的签订未经过恰当的审批，而且其潜在的风险也未得到正确的评估，他在会上也为此事件代表董事会 致歉。中信泰富20日停牌，停牌前股价报14.52元。
虽然如此，母公司中信集团仍给予支持，已同意为中信泰富协调安排15亿美元备用信贷，以加强该集团的流动性能力，荣智健相信，有关信贷金额应足够处理问题。
中信泰富上半年盈利约43.8亿元，但下半年仅外汇合约账面损失，以目前汇率计算，便达到147亿元，加上录得的约8亿元已实现损失，荣智健预料集团今年将亏损。不过，外汇合约实际账面损失，仍要视乎年底汇率状况而定，荣氏指出，倘若澳元汇率再出现波动，不排除账面损失会高于147亿元。
中信泰富计划以数项方法解决，包括直接使用所接收的澳元，预计铁矿项目直至2010年的资本开支，对澳元的需求为16亿澳元，而每年营运开支估计也需10亿澳元。
此外，集团也考虑终止合约，或进行重组，董事总经理范鸿龄解释，所谓重组是将合约由分两年接货，延长到例如分四至五年。他续称，集团业务盈利仍高，在爆出事件后仍获得往来银行支持，现金流没有问题，但不会因此加快将非核心业务出售。
被问到为何20日才披露事件，荣智健解释，管理层希望了解事件后才向外公布，9月发现问题后，马上便进行内部调查，20日是适当的公布时间。至于审核委员会不认为事件涉及欺诈或其他不法行为，他称早前澳元汇率急升，为了减轻成本，涉事职员才进行有关外汇交易，只是未有评估澳元贬值所构成的风险，故应不涉及刑事罪行。
荣智健表示，集团乃跟香港数家最大银行订立有关外汇合约，当中包括澳元、欧元及人民币的衍生工具合约。根据公告，其中所有澳元累计目标可赎回远期合约下，须接收的最高金额多达90.5亿澳元，集团须每月“接货”，为期至2010年10月。据了解，仍在生效的澳元杠杆式外汇合约的平均汇率为0.87美元，但当汇率低0.78美元时，集团须以两倍“接货”(世界财经报道http://finance.icxo.com)。澳元现报0.696美元，所以市场相信倘若澳元继续贬值，合约造成的损失会更大。由于澳大利亚经济滑坡，要减息支持经济，而且全球经济转弱对贵金属需求减，都对澳元不利，因此，中信泰富的有关亏损最终高于147亿元并不为奇。
【衍生驚魂】中信泰富炒燶外匯事件翻版蔓延全球
(經濟通)10月23日 星期四 08:44
中信泰富（００２６７）炒燶外匯事件的翻版正蔓延全球，單單巴西便可能有２００家企業中招，料損失３００億美元（約２３４０億港元），而墨西哥第三大零售商Ｃｏｍｅｒｃｉａｌ Ｍｅｘｉｃａｎａ，以及韓國部分電腦零件商，更因而申請破產保護。
《華爾街日報》報道，Ｍｅｘｉｃａｎａ為了減低外匯波動的風險，之前公司透過買入美元期貨來對冲美元兌墨西哥披索匯價走高的影響。不過，近幾個月墨西哥披索持續上升，匯價對冲的成本亦隨之增加；有見及此，公司遂向多間大型銀行，包括摩根大通及巴克萊等，買入類似中信泰富今次購入的外匯累計期權（即外匯Ａｃｃｕｍｕｌａｔｏｒ）合約，可惜事與願違，自８月１日以來，墨西哥披索兌美元大跌２４％，令Ｍｅｘｉｃａｎａ輸掉１４億美元。
在南韓，亦有超過５００家企業因購買一種叫ＫＩＫＯ（Ｋｎｏｃｋ－Ｉｎ Ｋｎｏｃｋ－Ｏｕｔ）的外匯期權而損手。韓國三星的供應商Ｔａｅｓａｎ ＬＣＤ，最近便因炒賣這隻期權損手８０６億韓圜（約４﹒８４億港元），令公司踏上破產之路。
這些「突然盈警」，導致相關企業股價大幅下挫，監管機構無一例外地調查上市公司的披露是否足夠，巴西第二大食品生產商Ｓａｄｉａ，更打算控告銷售有關產品的銀行索償。《香港經濟日報》
Property, and even crabs, face uncertainty in Shanghai
Commentary: Why the government really needs to support real estate
Craig Stephen
Oct. 26, 2008
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Visiting Shanghai last week, I expected the mood to be downbeat as equities hit a fresh two-year low and data revealed China's economy just put in its slowest quarter in five years.
But it was another worrying statistic that had everyone talking: The price of hairy crabs, a delicacy in Shanghai, had hit 10 year lows.
In this case, warm weather was partly to blame, as hairy crabs taste best in the cold weather and die in the heat. But the credit crunch had also crimped demand for the culinary treat.
The hope was that temperatures dropping to 15 degrees Celsius over the weekend would get the crab market moving.
Injecting life into the Shanghai stock market, however, will take more than a change in the weather. Investors have been bludgeoned with 12 months of losses and have all but given up hope of a government-led stock market rescue package.
Perhaps more telling than Friday's 1,932 points closing level on the Shanghai Exchange was the turnover figure of 12.5 billon yuan. That number was nearer to 180 billion yuan in the boom days.
China can at least feel less self-conscious about its miserable equity market performance -- down 61% this year -- now that stock markets around the world have collapsed in unison. Officialdom will also be aware that in current circumstances, it has even less chance of mounting a successful rescue, whatever measures it comes up with.
More to the point, Beijing now has more pressing problems of defending its economy from the credit market chaos ricocheting around the globe.
Going by policy measures announced last week, propping up the property sector is now priority number one. The Ministry of Finance introduced various measures, including cutting property down-payments to 20% from 30%, and reducing the lowest mortgage rates to 70% of the benchmark interest rate, down from 85%. Shanghai then went further, with a package of 14 property sweeteners.
Analysts at Citibank said in a research note that these measures might neutralize bearish sentiment but are unlikely to do anything to help prices, which have already being falling.
However, a local analyst explained to me that this was missing the real objective of the government measures. Rather than being designed to help out property owners (as opposed to equity investors), the government is actually worried about the banks who have lent heavily to developers.
Mainland property developers urgently need to start shifting some units and generate some cash flow or banks will struggle to get loans repaid that come due at year-end.
Furthermore, according to J.P. Morgan, many developers are weighed down with heavily leveraged balance sheets. This is likely to make them not just unpopular with equity investors, but also very exposed in the current credit markets when facing off with unsympathetic loan officers.
Smaller developers could be in an even tighter spot, as a bunch of them had to abort plans for equity market listings this year, missing out on a capital injection.
Bank loans to property developers are, on average, only 7% to 8% of Chinese banks' loan books, according to J.P. Morgan. But this could still be problematic, particularly if loan books have been built up relatively recently, rather than seasoned over many years.
Somehow China's new property owning class needs to regain their confidence, even if that means ignoring the economic gloom in the rest of the world. Policymakers, at least, appear to be acting proactively, but this is an area worth watching closely given the potential fallout for the wider economy.
It would not be surprising to see home-owners bide their time when just about every property market in the world is heading lower. And unlike Hong Kong, where well-capitalized developers will most likely maintain discipline and not slash prices or increase supply, a property fire sale in China cannot be discounted.
Also, this week earnings reports will arrive from a variety of big-name mainland companies, such as China Life and Ping An Insurance, and the market will be looking for some reassuring numbers.
Investors are still coming to terms with how a so-called mainland blue chip, Citic Pacific, messed up derivative contracts to the tune of HK$15 billion. What, one wonders, might its less sophisticated peers manage?
Before leaving Shanghai it seemed a particularly good time to try the local crab delicacy. And I can report that even if property prices are stagnating and the stock market is awful, the restaurants are at least full and doing a brisk trade.
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