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Monday, 25 August 2008
Giving people space to let off steam
Tight controls on politics and the Internet are being loosened, giving hope for multi-party democracy in a nation long used to the ruling PAP’s hold on power.
Tight controls on politics and the Internet are being loosened, giving hope for multi-party democracy in a nation long used to the ruling PAP’s hold on power.
FACED with a host of new problems, the younger set of leaders have surprised Singaporeans by announcing moves to ease controls on politics and the Internet.
The surprise is even greater when measured against the strong criticism levelled only five days earlier by Lee Kuan Yew at the younger generation’s enchantment with “multi-party democracy”.
The Minister Mentor had said: “They (the young generation) say, oh, let’s have multi-party politics. Let’s have different parties change and be in charge of the government.
“Is it that simple? You vote in a Division Three government, not a Division One government, and the whole economy will just subside within three, four years. Finished!”
Now his 56-year-old son has announced moves that could – if properly implemented – lead to more active multi-party politics or even loosen the ruling People’s Action Party’s hold on power.
Much depends on a parallel move to define how the new media will be managed.
But the intention to open up, however slow it may be, is apparent.
The influential older Lee’s recent allegations against Western democracy and a foreign conspiracy by liberals “to do Singapore in” had raised concerns that a crackdown on dissent might be ahead.
It also comes as the government is facing increasing public disquiet over super-inflation, unpopular policies and the decline of billions of dollars in value through poor investment.
The Internet has been a leading voice of discontent concerning these issues, particularly the government’s press and political controls.
These expressions have grown so loud that they had led people to expect a political backlash from the authorities, including cracking down on the Internet.
Instead, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong appears to have done the opposite.
In his National Day TV address to the nation, a confident-looking Hsien Loong, who was rumoured to be weakened from recent illness, announced the following steps:
1. Allowing outdoor demonstrations under conditions. “We have to move away from this total ban and find ways for people to let off steam a little bit more, but safely,” Lee said. Dissidents will be allowed to protest at The Speakers’ Corner after registering.
2. By around the next general election (due in 2011), Singaporeans will be allowed to post political videos and campaign materials on the Internet, currently banned during the campaigning period.
3. Party political films, banned 10 years ago, may likely be relaxed; an advisory panel may be set up to review them, in the same way that normal films are now classified.
“Our worry is because films are an emotive medium, passions can get stirred up and people can get carried away,” Hsien Loong explained.
“I think this is a valid concern, but I don’t think an outright ban is still sensible because this is how people communicate on the Web in daily life.”
Although Hsien Loong’s liberalisation intention had been announced two years ago, his move to allow public protests came as a pleasant surprise, given his father’s presence.
The Web community is generally pleased with it, although it is far short of what it wants. The consensus view has been: “It is a good start.”
However, a few are reserving judgment pending follow-up action.
“Things can turn out differently. The bureaucrats can still work in various subtle controls to manage the Web,” one said.
Despite the contradiction, few observers see any significant political or generational division between Lee Senior and PM Lee and his younger ministers.
The ruling PAP isn’t the sort where such a split can happen – at least not when Kuan Yew is still around.
However, it is likely that the senior Lee – given his mindset – isn’t too pleased with it.
Any move towards more public debate or a freer new media would go against the grain of Lee Senior’s ideology, and likely to have been lengthily debated within the Cabinet.
That the prime minister has got his way augurs well for Singapore in preparation for a post-Lee Kuan Yew future. The senior Lee will be 85 next month.
Some critics see the reasons as coming from outside, rather than inside the PAP, which retains a tight control in the republic.
One is the flourishing Internet and the other is the emergence of a new generation of Singaporeans who clamour for an end to Kuan Yew’s soft authoritarianism.
The shocking outcome of Malaysia’s March election, with the big role played by the online community, is believed to be exerting a strong influence here.
Singapore’s digital plunge is greater than Malaysia’s. More than three quarters of the population have Internet access.
More Singaporeans are turning to online sources for information and opinions.
With the new move, it is clear that the government now wants to use the Internet to win the hearts and minds of disaffected youths.
The outcome will be uncertain.
The Internet – with its webcam and podcasts – is just a channel of communication, albeit an effective one. It is still the message that will decide who will win or lose.
China's leaders are carefully considering an economic stimulus package of about 370 billion yuan (HK$420.7 billion), including a 220 billion yuan new expenditure and 150 billion yuan of tax cut plan, that may ease the government's monetary policy by the end of the year, China Business News reported. "Although the details are yet to be sorted out, there is such a plan, and it has been approved by a central finance planning team," state-run Xinhua News Agency said in a report yesterday.
The expenditure part will include the spending of 45 billion yuan on social welfare, 46 billion yuan on agriculture, 38 billion on education, 35 billion yuan on construction, and 28 billion yuan on import of energy and commodity products.
The package will also propose tax cuts of 150 billion yuan in total, including measures to raise the threshold of personal income tax, export tax rebate, and preferential tax packages for small and medium- sized enterprises.
However, concerns over whether to launch the plan within the year rose because officials aren't certain if the country has planned enough budget for it.
This year's snowstorms in southern China and earthquake in Sichuan have already cost China 35 billion yuan.
In the first half, China generated fiscal income of 3.4 trillion yuan, running a fiscal surplus of 1 trillion yuan.
Last week, JPMorgan released a report saying Chinese authorities were considering an economic stimulus plan of at least 200 billion yuan to 400 billion yuan. The controversial news, although unconfirmed by the authorities, helped boost the A-share index by nearly 8 percent in a single trading day.
Until recently, it seemed that oil prices could move in only one direction: up. But in the past few weeks, the great energy rally that began at the beginning of the decade has shown signs of running out of steam.
A combination of weak economic growth, slowing demand and shifting perceptions has sent oil prices down 21 percent from a peak last month. Prices have fallen in two of every three trading sessions this month despite hurricanes looming over the Gulf of Mexico's offshore wells, a war in the Caucasus that threatens Caspian supplies and more violence in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta.
Only a short while ago, such events would have sent prices still higher. But energy markets, which for years had focused mainly on risks to supplies, have suddenly started paying attention to the impact that high prices are having on consumers.
By any measure, oil prices remain high and have become increasingly volatile. Oil is up 19 percent this year and has been stuck above $100 a barrel since early March.
On Friday, prices had their biggest drop since 2004, falling 5 percent to $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A day earlier, they shot up by almost 5 percent.
"The market psychology has shifted dramatically," said James Crandell, an energy analyst at Lehman Brothers. "It now clings to the bearish news that was shrugged off early in the year in the pursuit of higher prices."
Energy specialists are split on where the market is headed. One camp believes that the slowdown is temporary and that global oil supplies will remain constrained for years. When growth picks up again, in this view, so will prices.
Another camp contends that the current slowdown heralds a lasting shift in consumption patterns as consumers trade their gas guzzlers for smaller cars and businesses find ways to use less energy.
Perhaps the biggest question is whether oil prices will drop enough to give consumers some relief, while at the same time remaining high enough to call forth new supplies, spur investment in alternative fuels and encourage consumers to use energy more efficiently.
Oil prices have typically tended to stabilize for long periods - when adjusted for inflation, prices look like flat lines for years on end. In the 1990s, a period when supplies were plentiful, prices hovered around $20 to $25 a barrel. But it is unclear where the current market will find stability, with forecasts of the near-term price ranging from $90 to $150 a barrel.
"The market is still trying to find an equilibrium," said Michael Wittner, the global head of oil research at Société Générale, in London. He predicts oil will bottom out at $105 a barrel in September, before rebounding next year to $120 as supplies remain tight. "Prices need to remain, quote-unquote, high, to continue to limit growth in demand," he said.
Oil consumption has been falling in all major industrialized countries, including the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain.
Sales of big cars and trucks in the United States have plummeted and airlines have trouble filling their seats.
Gasoline prices, which rose to a U.S. average of $4.11 a gallon last month, now average $3.69 a gallon, according to AAA, the automobile group. The prices have forced many consumers to cut their spending on other items.
Americans drove 12.2 billion fewer miles, or 19.6 billion fewer kilometers, in June 2008 than in June 2007, a drop of 4.7 percent, according to the Department of Transportation.
Gasoline demand is declining as a result. Consumption has fallen for 27 consecutive weeks and is down 2.5 percent since the beginning of the year, said Michael McNamara, the vice president of MasterCard Spending Pulse, which tracks retail gasoline sales nationwide.
* Much of July’s demand growth spurt was fuelled by diesel and gasoline, which China imported in record quantities
BEIJING: China’s oil demand growth hit a two-year high in July but the pre-Olympic spurt will likely fall off in the autumn, undermined by high prices, global economic woes and the end of official pressure to stockpile for the Games.
Implied consumption rocketed 9.5 percent from a year earlier as the impact of a huge pump price rise filtered through to refinery output and oil firms made record fuel imports to prevent shortages while the world’s eyes were on China for the Olympics. But oil product purchases abroad will drop sharply after the end of the Games, industry sources say, as the government eases pressure on its energy majors to guarantee supplies. If they draw down brimming storage tanks of transport fuels, which were the main driver of July’s demand jump, this could quickly sap apparent consumption figures. These do not include stockpile levels because the data is not published by Beijing.
“The demand growth for the fourth quarter may show some slower growth, impacted by high inventory,” said US-based independent analyst Paul Ting in a note to clients. “China’s diesel inventory (and gasoline) reached the highest level on record by the end of June and inventory levels increased in July as well,” he added.
Much of July’s demand growth spurt was fuelled by diesel and gasoline, which China imported in record quantities. Demand for kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas fell, while implied fuel oil consumption plummeted over a third, giving perhaps a more realistic picture of consumption. And in the year through July, implied demand — net imports plus refinery output, but excluding inventory changes — rose a more modest six percent to 7.40 million barrels per day, Reuters calculations from official data showed.
Pricing problems: Set to leap back into the demand foreground once the last athletes head home are the pricing problems that have cramped consumption in the past, and triggered the massive imports and pressure to boost fuel stocks.
“After the Olympics demand won’t be so good. There is a good chance that the government will speed up efforts to link fuel prices with the international markets,” said Wu Jun, an analyst at futures firm CIFCO in Shanghai. Beijing has for years been struggling to reconcile a promise to bring state-set energy prices in line with market levels with its fears of the consequences of doing so.
A surprise late June increase helped placate refiners ahead of the Olympics, but even the nearly 20 percent rise — and a fall in crude markets from July’s record over $147 a barrel — was not enough to bring them back into the black.
But either a raise or a continuation of the uneasy status quo is likely to be bad news for demand growth. Without an increase, refiners will likely choke off supplies to limit losses, hitting consumption as drivers struggle to find fuel to fill their tanks. But a further increase could bring the first significant signs of price sensitivity from a group of drivers used to state protection from the vagaries of international oil market.
For some companies struggling with a strengthening Chinese currency and the impact of a global economic slowdown, it could be the last straw, added CIFCO’s Wu. “The last increase in June already weakened demand. If it happens again, it will have a more serious impact,” he said. reuters
4 comments:
Giving people space to let off steam
Insight Down South
By SEAH CHIANG NEE
August 23, 2008
Tight controls on politics and the Internet are being loosened, giving hope for multi-party democracy in a nation long used to the ruling PAP’s hold on power.
FACED with a host of new problems, the younger set of leaders have surprised Singaporeans by announcing moves to ease controls on politics and the Internet.
The surprise is even greater when measured against the strong criticism levelled only five days earlier by Lee Kuan Yew at the younger generation’s enchantment with “multi-party democracy”.
The Minister Mentor had said: “They (the young generation) say, oh, let’s have multi-party politics. Let’s have different parties change and be in charge of the government.
“Is it that simple? You vote in a Division Three government, not a Division One government, and the whole economy will just subside within three, four years. Finished!”
Now his 56-year-old son has announced moves that could – if properly implemented – lead to more active multi-party politics or even loosen the ruling People’s Action Party’s hold on power.
Much depends on a parallel move to define how the new media will be managed.
But the intention to open up, however slow it may be, is apparent.
The influential older Lee’s recent allegations against Western democracy and a foreign conspiracy by liberals “to do Singapore in” had raised concerns that a crackdown on dissent might be ahead.
It also comes as the government is facing increasing public disquiet over super-inflation, unpopular policies and the decline of billions of dollars in value through poor investment.
The Internet has been a leading voice of discontent concerning these issues, particularly the government’s press and political controls.
These expressions have grown so loud that they had led people to expect a political backlash from the authorities, including cracking down on the Internet.
Instead, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong appears to have done the opposite.
In his National Day TV address to the nation, a confident-looking Hsien Loong, who was rumoured to be weakened from recent illness, announced the following steps:
1. Allowing outdoor demonstrations under conditions. “We have to move away from this total ban and find ways for people to let off steam a little bit more, but safely,” Lee said. Dissidents will be allowed to protest at The Speakers’ Corner after registering.
2. By around the next general election (due in 2011), Singaporeans will be allowed to post political videos and campaign materials on the Internet, currently banned during the campaigning period.
3. Party political films, banned 10 years ago, may likely be relaxed; an advisory panel may be set up to review them, in the same way that normal films are now classified.
“Our worry is because films are an emotive medium, passions can get stirred up and people can get carried away,” Hsien Loong explained.
“I think this is a valid concern, but I don’t think an outright ban is still sensible because this is how people communicate on the Web in daily life.”
Although Hsien Loong’s liberalisation intention had been announced two years ago, his move to allow public protests came as a pleasant surprise, given his father’s presence.
The Web community is generally pleased with it, although it is far short of what it wants. The consensus view has been: “It is a good start.”
However, a few are reserving judgment pending follow-up action.
“Things can turn out differently. The bureaucrats can still work in various subtle controls to manage the Web,” one said.
Despite the contradiction, few observers see any significant political or generational division between Lee Senior and PM Lee and his younger ministers.
The ruling PAP isn’t the sort where such a split can happen – at least not when Kuan Yew is still around.
However, it is likely that the senior Lee – given his mindset – isn’t too pleased with it.
Any move towards more public debate or a freer new media would go against the grain of Lee Senior’s ideology, and likely to have been lengthily debated within the Cabinet.
That the prime minister has got his way augurs well for Singapore in preparation for a post-Lee Kuan Yew future. The senior Lee will be 85 next month.
Some critics see the reasons as coming from outside, rather than inside the PAP, which retains a tight control in the republic.
One is the flourishing Internet and the other is the emergence of a new generation of Singaporeans who clamour for an end to Kuan Yew’s soft authoritarianism.
The shocking outcome of Malaysia’s March election, with the big role played by the online community, is believed to be exerting a strong influence here.
Singapore’s digital plunge is greater than Malaysia’s. More than three quarters of the population have Internet access.
More Singaporeans are turning to online sources for information and opinions.
With the new move, it is clear that the government now wants to use the Internet to win the hearts and minds of disaffected youths.
The outcome will be uncertain.
The Internet – with its webcam and podcasts – is just a channel of communication, albeit an effective one. It is still the message that will decide who will win or lose.
China mulls 370b stimulus package
Kathy Wang
August 25, 2008
China's leaders are carefully considering an economic stimulus package of about 370 billion yuan (HK$420.7 billion), including a 220 billion yuan new expenditure and 150 billion yuan of tax cut plan, that may ease the government's monetary policy by the end of the year, China Business News reported.
"Although the details are yet to be sorted out, there is such a plan, and it has been approved by a central finance planning team," state-run Xinhua News Agency said in a report yesterday.
The expenditure part will include the spending of 45 billion yuan on social welfare, 46 billion yuan on agriculture, 38 billion on education, 35 billion yuan on construction, and 28 billion yuan on import of energy and commodity products.
The package will also propose tax cuts of 150 billion yuan in total, including measures to raise the threshold of personal income tax, export tax rebate, and preferential tax packages for small and medium- sized enterprises.
However, concerns over whether to launch the plan within the year rose because officials aren't certain if the country has planned enough budget for it.
This year's snowstorms in southern China and earthquake in Sichuan have already cost China 35 billion yuan.
In the first half, China generated fiscal income of 3.4 trillion yuan, running a fiscal surplus of 1 trillion yuan.
Last week, JPMorgan released a report saying Chinese authorities were considering an economic stimulus plan of at least 200 billion yuan to 400 billion yuan. The controversial news, although unconfirmed by the authorities, helped boost the A-share index by nearly 8 percent in a single trading day.
With oil demand down, prices are leveling off
By Jad Mouawad
August 24, 2008
Until recently, it seemed that oil prices could move in only one direction: up. But in the past few weeks, the great energy rally that began at the beginning of the decade has shown signs of running out of steam.
A combination of weak economic growth, slowing demand and shifting perceptions has sent oil prices down 21 percent from a peak last month. Prices have fallen in two of every three trading sessions this month despite hurricanes looming over the Gulf of Mexico's offshore wells, a war in the Caucasus that threatens Caspian supplies and more violence in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta.
Only a short while ago, such events would have sent prices still higher. But energy markets, which for years had focused mainly on risks to supplies, have suddenly started paying attention to the impact that high prices are having on consumers.
By any measure, oil prices remain high and have become increasingly volatile. Oil is up 19 percent this year and has been stuck above $100 a barrel since early March.
On Friday, prices had their biggest drop since 2004, falling 5 percent to $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A day earlier, they shot up by almost 5 percent.
"The market psychology has shifted dramatically," said James Crandell, an energy analyst at Lehman Brothers. "It now clings to the bearish news that was shrugged off early in the year in the pursuit of higher prices."
Energy specialists are split on where the market is headed. One camp believes that the slowdown is temporary and that global oil supplies will remain constrained for years. When growth picks up again, in this view, so will prices.
Another camp contends that the current slowdown heralds a lasting shift in consumption patterns as consumers trade their gas guzzlers for smaller cars and businesses find ways to use less energy.
Perhaps the biggest question is whether oil prices will drop enough to give consumers some relief, while at the same time remaining high enough to call forth new supplies, spur investment in alternative fuels and encourage consumers to use energy more efficiently.
Oil prices have typically tended to stabilize for long periods - when adjusted for inflation, prices look like flat lines for years on end. In the 1990s, a period when supplies were plentiful, prices hovered around $20 to $25 a barrel. But it is unclear where the current market will find stability, with forecasts of the near-term price ranging from $90 to $150 a barrel.
"The market is still trying to find an equilibrium," said Michael Wittner, the global head of oil research at Société Générale, in London. He predicts oil will bottom out at $105 a barrel in September, before rebounding next year to $120 as supplies remain tight. "Prices need to remain, quote-unquote, high, to continue to limit growth in demand," he said.
Oil consumption has been falling in all major industrialized countries, including the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain.
Sales of big cars and trucks in the United States have plummeted and airlines have trouble filling their seats.
Gasoline prices, which rose to a U.S. average of $4.11 a gallon last month, now average $3.69 a gallon, according to AAA, the automobile group. The prices have forced many consumers to cut their spending on other items.
Americans drove 12.2 billion fewer miles, or 19.6 billion fewer kilometers, in June 2008 than in June 2007, a drop of 4.7 percent, according to the Department of Transportation.
Gasoline demand is declining as a result. Consumption has fallen for 27 consecutive weeks and is down 2.5 percent since the beginning of the year, said Michael McNamara, the vice president of MasterCard Spending Pulse, which tracks retail gasoline sales nationwide.
China oil demand growth hits 2-yr high in July
August 23, 2008
* Much of July’s demand growth spurt was fuelled by diesel and gasoline, which China imported in record quantities
BEIJING: China’s oil demand growth hit a two-year high in July but the pre-Olympic spurt will likely fall off in the autumn, undermined by high prices, global economic woes and the end of official pressure to stockpile for the Games.
Implied consumption rocketed 9.5 percent from a year earlier as the impact of a huge pump price rise filtered through to refinery output and oil firms made record fuel imports to prevent shortages while the world’s eyes were on China for the Olympics. But oil product purchases abroad will drop sharply after the end of the Games, industry sources say, as the government eases pressure on its energy majors to guarantee supplies. If they draw down brimming storage tanks of transport fuels, which were the main driver of July’s demand jump, this could quickly sap apparent consumption figures. These do not include stockpile levels because the data is not published by Beijing.
“The demand growth for the fourth quarter may show some slower growth, impacted by high inventory,” said US-based independent analyst Paul Ting in a note to clients. “China’s diesel inventory (and gasoline) reached the highest level on record by the end of June and inventory levels increased in July as well,” he added.
Much of July’s demand growth spurt was fuelled by diesel and gasoline, which China imported in record quantities. Demand for kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas fell, while implied fuel oil consumption plummeted over a third, giving perhaps a more realistic picture of consumption. And in the year through July, implied demand — net imports plus refinery output, but excluding inventory changes — rose a more modest six percent to 7.40 million barrels per day, Reuters calculations from official data showed.
Pricing problems: Set to leap back into the demand foreground once the last athletes head home are the pricing problems that have cramped consumption in the past, and triggered the massive imports and pressure to boost fuel stocks.
“After the Olympics demand won’t be so good. There is a good chance that the government will speed up efforts to link fuel prices with the international markets,” said Wu Jun, an analyst at futures firm CIFCO in Shanghai. Beijing has for years been struggling to reconcile a promise to bring state-set energy prices in line with market levels with its fears of the consequences of doing so.
A surprise late June increase helped placate refiners ahead of the Olympics, but even the nearly 20 percent rise — and a fall in crude markets from July’s record over $147 a barrel — was not enough to bring them back into the black.
But either a raise or a continuation of the uneasy status quo is likely to be bad news for demand growth. Without an increase, refiners will likely choke off supplies to limit losses, hitting consumption as drivers struggle to find fuel to fill their tanks. But a further increase could bring the first significant signs of price sensitivity from a group of drivers used to state protection from the vagaries of international oil market.
For some companies struggling with a strengthening Chinese currency and the impact of a global economic slowdown, it could be the last straw, added CIFCO’s Wu. “The last increase in June already weakened demand. If it happens again, it will have a more serious impact,” he said. reuters
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