Saturday, 30 August 2008

Recovery in the US is still distant

None of the preconditions for US recovery are in place
  • Debt has not yet been repaid.
  • Physical property market not yet stabilised.
  • Labour market not yet stabilised.
  • Rate increases not needed as wages are subdued.
  • Rate cuts not my central case but cannot be ruled out (hardening lending attitudes mean NBPS will not benefit).
  • Further financial pressure should be expected.
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