On what the charts say for the STI, Kim Eng's online research unit KELive said in its 'Long & Short Report' yesterday that notwithstanding the recent post-Chinese New Year bounce, the long-term trend is down with a mid-term target of 2,650.
Fed likely to remain aggressive about cutting rates as a result, says Merrill
Feb 23, 2008
NEW YORK - THE United States is in a recession that could be much worse than what it faced in 2001, and closer to the sharper economic slump of the 1990s, investment bank Merrill Lynch has said.
The bank also said the US Federal Reserve would likely remain in ‘aggressive rate-cutting mode’ as a result, cutting rates by 50 basis points on March 18.
Merrill argued that the manufacturing slowdown in the US mid-Atlantic region showed a ‘collapse in business confidence’ to levels not seen since the 1990s recession.
‘A pullback in the outlook of this magnitude could be extremely corrosive to the economy because it means shuttering production, slashing inventories, deeper job cuts and even cancelling capital expenditure plans,’ Merrill said in a report on Thursday.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business activity index, a reading of factories in the mid-Atlantic region that is viewed as a precursor of national factory performance, fell to minus 24 this month, below expectations for a minus 11.
Readings below zero show contraction in the industrial sector.
The reading was worse than even the most pessimistic Wall Street forecast, and suggested that economic deterioration is happening even more rapidly than many expected as the housing downturn continues unabated.
‘The debate is no longer about whether the economy is in a recession. In our view, it is about how hard the landing will be,’ Merrill said.
The six-month outlook in the region has collapsed from a cycle high of 39.6 last October to minus 16.9 this month, the steepest decline ever recorded by the Fed report, the bank noted.
‘This is clearly pointing to an economy that is in a recession,’ said Mr Eric Green, an economist at Countrywide Financial.
The softness was pervasive and looked to be getting worse, with the index of six-month business conditions falling to its lowest level since 1990.
New orders remained in negative territory but improved to minus 10.9 from minus 15.2, although employment did turn positive after a dip last month.
Separately, the Conference Board’s index of leading US economic indicators fell for a fourth straight month in January, dropping 0.1 per cent and corroborating the weakness seen elsewhere in the economy.
‘Four monthly declines in a row ordinarily is taken as an indicator of a manufacturing recession,’ said Mr Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics.
These concerns drove the stock market sharply lower and triggered a rally in the US Treasury bond market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.96 points, or 1.2 per cent, to 12,284.3 at the closing bell on Thursday.
Many small and medium-sized steel manufacturers have raised their prices ahead of an expected price increase announcement by Baosteel, the nation’s largest steelmaker.
Jiangsu Shagang Group yesterday raised the factory price of screw steel by 240 yuan per ton.
Shandong Laigang Group raised the price of several steel products by 100 yuan per ton, and Baotou Steel announced it was raising hot-roll and cold-roll steel price by 400 yuan per ton from March.
The price of cold-roll steel quoted by distributors jumped sharply yesterday, ranging from 100 to 270 yuan per ton, according to statistics from Mysteel.com, which tracks steel sales.
Analysts said steel manufactures reacted quickly to the expectation of a larger price jump by two largest steelmakers, Baosteel and Shougang Group, in the second quarter.
“Many distributors are hoarding steel products and waiting for the price to rise,” said Gao Bo, an analyst at Mysteel website. In doing so, “they have created a temporary supply squeeze”, he said. An industry insider said Baosteel’s price adjustment has already been settled in an internal meeting yesterday morning, and the new price will fully cover the rising cost from the expected 65 percent increase in iron ore price. But he declined to elaborate.
Analysts said the added cost from a 65 percent iron ore price jump ranged from 783 yuan to 824 yuan, and that the added cost for large steelmaker such as Baosteel is lower than that for other small and medium-sized manufactures. Zhou Tao, an analyst at Sinolink Securities Co Ltd, said Baosteel can fully cover the rising raw material cost by raising price by 400 yuan per ton, or 10 percent, in the second quarter.
Baosteel has already raised steel price by around 10 percent in the first quarter this year. The company’s hot-rolled steel coil, commonly considered a market benchmark, was priced at 4,042 yuan a ton in the first quarter.
The 65 percent raw material price increase will add 500 to 550 yuan cost for Baosteel, and 600 to 650 yuan to Wuhan Steel, said Zhou.
The expected 65 percent ore price rise will translate into a rise of more than 20 percent in steel production costs, Zou Jian, chairman of Metallurgical Mines Association of China, told China Daily.
Rio Tinto group, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, has said it intends to hold out for a higher price than the 65 percent rise agreed between Vale of Brazil and Japanese and South Korean steelmakers because it believes it deserves a premium on its iron ore as its mines, which are in Australia, are closer to Asia than Vale’s.
Tony Loo, managing director of Rio Tinto China, earlier said the ore supplier would seek a freight premium on the iron ore it ships to Asian steelmakers.
Market volatility in the final hour is a sign that nobody really knows where Wall Street is headed for the next few months.
February 22 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- There’s a saying among basketball fans that you need to watch only the last five minutes of the game. These days, that’s the case on Wall Street.
Lately, 3 p.m. is the time when either market rallies die or big sell-offs turn into nice pops.
On Thursday, for example, the major indexes all opened higher, dropped sharply in the final hour and hit their low points of the day shortly before the close. The same thing happened Tuesday.
The last hour isn’t always bad, however. The markets recovered from a tough start Wednesday - the Dow was down nearly 180 points at one point -and closed higher.
And then there’s the wackiness that ensued on Jan. 23, the day after the Fed’s emergency rate cut. The Dow was off as much as 326 points early in the day but thanks to a stunning rally in the final hour, it wound up closing higher by nearly 300 points.
What gives? Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said that he believes the last stretch of trading is dominated more by institutional investors than individual investors.
So the “smart” money (not to mention big money) is creating these wild end-of-the-day swings. And interestingly, it appears that average investors and big mutual funds and hedge funds don’t agree about where the market is headed.
This worries Ablin. “There is a tug of war between retail and institutional investors. It’s emblematic of the confusion going on. The economic outlook is so cloudy that it creates an environment of uncertainty,” he said.
But Rob Stein, managing partner and senior economist with Astor Asset Management, an investment firm in Chicago, said the market really hasn’t been all that volatile if you look at what it’s done over the past few weeks.
Even though there have been big moves on a day-to-day basis, stocks are still around the same level as they were following the Fed’s emergency rate cut.
The S&P 500, for example, closed at 1338.60 following the rally on Jan. 23. Yesterday, it closed at 1342.53.
“If you step back, the market appears more volatile than it really is because the ranges of the moves are so much bigger. But we’ve really done nothing since the Fed came to the rescue,” Stein said.
So what’s next? It depends on your stomach.
Ablin said investors should hold out for more clarity about the economy to emerge before buying stocks.
“Average investors should wait until at least April or May. It’s like jumping in the swimming pool without knowing what the temperature of the water is,” he said.
But Stein believes that if you can deal with some of the daily gyrations, this is exactly the time to jump into the market since he thinks there are many long-term values.
“We have a jittery market and if you don’t like that, sit on the sidelines. But whenever the market falls as much as it has over the past few months, it’s usually a good time to buy,” he said. “Stocks go up over time. You have to ignore the short-term fluctuations.”
That is sound advice. But keep in mind that if you want to test the market waters now, it might be a good idea to have a trusty bottle of Pepto-Bismol handy if you want to see how your portfolio is doing around 3 p.m.
Singapore’s emigration rate, one of the highest in the world on a per capita basis, is a blow to the government.
INSIGHT DOWN SOUTH BY SEAH CHIANG NEE Saturday February 23, 2008
YEARS of strong economic growth have failed to stem Singapore’s skilled youths from leaving for a better life abroad, with the number topping 1,000 a year.
This works out to 4%-5%, or three in 10, of the highly educated population, a severe brain drain for a small, young nation, according to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.
Such high-end emigration is usually associated with less better-off countries where living conditions are poor. Here the opposite is the case.
Last year the economy created almost 200,000 jobs, far in excess of the 38,000 births recorded.
The future doesn’t look better, either, despite Lee holding out promises of “a golden period” in the next five to 10 years.
Lee believes the exodus, which has been worrying him for two decades, could only grow because “every year, there are more people going abroad for their first or second degree.”
The emigration rate, one of the highest in the world on a per capita basis, is a blow to the government, particularly to Lee, who takes pride in building up this once poor squatter colony into a glittering global city.
They are people who abandoned their citizenship for a foreign one, mostly in Australia, the United States and Canada.
It is particularly serious for two reasons. First, Singapore is a young nation that is working hard to consolidate its nationhood and its people, and second, its defence lies in a reservist army.
This is made up of young men who have served two years of compulsory military training when they reach the age of 18. Any big outflow will badly affect security, not to mention the economy.
Adding to a declining birth rate, the problem of emigration, which appears to have worsened during the past few decades as people became better educated, will further reduce the base of this well-trained people’s army.
Hundreds of thousands of foreigners and permanent residents who have come to Singapore help make up the numbers, but they do not have to serve national service.
The emigrants, mostly professionals, don’t leave Singapore out of poverty but to seek a better, less pressurised life.
Lee recently said the brain drain is touching close to this family.
Lee’s grandson, the elder son of Prime Minister Hsien Loong, who is studying in the United States, has indicated that he may not return.
Over the years, the children of several Cabinet ministers have also made Britain or the US their home.
Lee, aged 84, has often spoken on the issue with emotions, once tearing when referring to the losses.
However, he has offered no reasons for the exodus beyond economic opportunities, although the government more or less knows what they are.
Singaporeans who have or are planning to emigrate are given a host of 10 questions and asked to tick the three most important ones. They include the following: - > High costs of living
> Singapore is too regulated and stifling
> Better career and prospects overseas
> Prefer a more relaxed lifestyle
> Uncertain future of Singapore.
Some liberal Singaporeans believe Lee himself, with his authoritarian leadership and unpopular policies, is largely to blame.
Singapore’s best-known writer Catherine Lim calls it a climate of fear that stops citizens from speaking out against the government, saying it could eventually lead to the decline of the state.
She praised the government for its economic achievements but added: “A compliant, fearful population that has never learnt to be politically savvy could spell the doom of Singapore.”
Globalisation, which offers opportunities in many countries like never before, is a big reason for the outflow.
Many countries, including populous China, are making a special effort to attract foreign talent.
Others who leave were worried about the future of their children living in a small island, and look for security and comfort of a larger country.
The exodus is more than made up – at least in numbers – by a larger intake of professionals from China and India.
“The trouble is many of the Chinese then use us as a stepping stone to go to America, where the grass is greener, Lee said.
“But even if we only keep 30%-40% and lose 60%-70%, we’re a net gainer,” he added.
He believed, however, that the Chinese would cease to come in 20 to 30 years’ time, when China’s living standards rise to match Singapore’s.
Some feel the large presence of foreigners, and the perks they enjoy over locals in military exemption as well as in scholarships, are themselves strong push factors.
They see the foreigners as a threat to jobs and space, undermining salaries and loosening the nation’s cohesion.
“I just feel very sad to see the Singapore of today with so many talented, passionate Singaporeans moving out and being replaced by many foreigners,” said one blogger. “I feel sorry for the future.”
Others point out the danger of an easy fix in numbers without regard to quality.
“Foreigners treat this place as a hotel, when the economy turns they will leave,” said a teacher who is seeing more and more foreign students in his class.
Lee recently made a passionate appeal to youths to think hard about their country. He said they had received education and opportunities provided by Singaporeans who had worked hard for it.
“Can you in good conscience say, ‘Goodbye! Thank you very much?’ Can you leave with a clear conscience? I cannot,” he said.
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore seized more than 75,000 illegal products, including some sold as sexual-enhancement pills, after receiving reports of life-threatening reactions, the Health Sciences Authority said yesterday.
The pills, sold under the brand ``Power 1 Walnut,'' have more than five times the amount of the prescription drug glibenclamide that is used to treat diabetes, a level that can cause seizures, unconsciousness, strokes and death, according to the authority's Web site. They also contain sildenafil, the active ingredient in the erectile-dysfunction pill Viagra, made by Pfizer Inc.
The authority was alerted on Jan. 29 to the first case linked to consumption of the pills, which are manufactured in China, according to the product's packaging, the statement said.
As of yesterday, 10 people had suffered low blood sugar after taking the pills, with one individual in critical condition, it said. Another 29 people were suspected of experiencing similar effects, but they hadn't confirmed to the authority that they had taken the drugs.
The authority informed its counterparts in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China and Hong Kong, of the product's potential dangers, the statement said.
S'pore professor caught stealing panties from dorm
Reuters - Saturday, February 23
SINGAPORE, Feb 23 - A Singaporean professor who nicked bras and panties has pleaded guilty to stealing women's underwear from a university dormitory, a local newspaper reported on Saturday.
The 39-year old man -- an associate professor in a Chinese university -- was charged for taking women's underwear from a university hostel's clothes-line last December, the Straits Times reported.
The Singaporean professor, who teaches in China, was in the city-state for his leave when he committed the crime. He was caught by a dormitory security guard who found female undergarments in his haversack.
"I have heard stories before about underwear being stolen, but I never thought it would happen to me," a victim, who was not named, was quoted as saying.
A lawyer for the professor was reported as saying his client suffers from a psychiatric disorder and has been taking women's underwear since he was 14.
The lawyer also said that his client was an honourable and kind person who had no intention of causing annoyance to the underwear owners.
Asian Currencies: Taiwan, Singapore Dollars Climb on Inflation
By Aaron Pan
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Taiwan dollar led Asian currencies higher this week on speculation the region's central banks will allow faster gains to curb inflation.
The island's currency yesterday had the highest close since May 2006 after a government report on Feb. 21 showed faster- than-expected economic growth is driving up consumer prices. The local dollar has risen 3 percent this year, the best performer among the 10 most-active Asian currencies outside Japan. The Singapore dollar appreciated to a decade-high.
``The Taiwan dollar obviously is in an uptrend amid hopes for a better economic outlook and improving ties with China,'' said Tommy Huang, a bond trader at Taiwan International Securities Corp. in Taipei.
The currency advanced 0.8 percent in the five-day period to NT$31.495, the sixth weekly gain, according to Taipei Forex Inc. The Singapore dollar strengthened 0.5 percent to S$1.4063 while China's yuan rose 0.6 percent to 7.1418. Thailand's baht gained 0.7 percent to 32.31 onshore.
Central banks in China, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore will allow their currencies to strengthen to cool inflation, according to Pacific Investment Management Co., which overseas the world's biggest managed bond fund, and Pictet & Cie., Switzerland's largest closely held private bank.
Taiwan Growth
``Asian countries such as China and Singapore are trying to control faster inflation and have more room to accept a stronger currency,'' said Masashi Kurabe, head of the foreign-exchange sales & trading group at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``Economic fundamentals are also much better than the U.S.''
Taiwan's dollar may reach NT$31 in a month, Kurabe said.
Taiwan's government on Feb. 21 raised its inflation forecast for this year to 1.98 percent from a November prediction of 1.84 percent. The central bank yesterday denied an Economic Daily News report that cited Governor Perng Fai-nan as saying recent currency appreciation has helped curb inflation.
Exports to China helped Taiwan's economy expand 6.39 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, beating the median estimate of 5.65 percent in a Bloomberg News survey. Exports to China and Hong Kong increased 12.6 percent in 2007.
Taiwan's presidential election, due March 22, may improve ties with China. Ruling party presidential candidate Frank Hsieh said on Feb. 18 he will invite China's President Hu Jintao to the island. Opposition Kuomintang party's candidate Ma Ying-jeou has pledged to seek a peace agreement with China.
The Taiwan dollar pared its advance of as much as 0.7 percent yesterday to 0.1 percent on speculation the central bank sold the currency.
`Possibility of Intervention'
``The central bank seems to have come into the market closer to the end of trading session as they care about the closing price,'' said Sadaaki Kondou, assistant general manager of treasury at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Taipei. ``The basic trend is for the currency to appreciate but we can't ignore the possibility of intervention.''
The dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.4841 per euro. It was at 107.10 yen from 107.40 late on Feb. 21 in New York.
The Singapore dollar rose to a decade high as the central bank allows ``slightly'' faster appreciation to lower import prices and curb inflation.
The currency had a second weekly gain before a government report next week that economists forecast will show consumer prices climbed by the most in a quarter century. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which guides its dollar within an undisclosed trading range, said in October it would ``increase slightly the slope of the policy band.''
Singapore Inflation
``Inflation is a concern for Singapore and the MAS will allow for an appreciation of the currency to reduce import prices,'' said Hideki Hayashi, chief economist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``The Singapore dollar will remain under pressure to appreciate.''
Singapore's dollar advanced to S$1.4059, the highest since February 1997. Singapore's central bank seeks to keep its dollar from rising or falling outside of the band.
One loser in the region this week was South Korea's won, which had its biggest weekly loss in a month as overseas investors added to their sales of the nation's stocks.
The Korean currency has dropped 1.3 percent this year. Overseas fund managers sold stocks every day this year except four. The nation's benchmark stock index fell 1.1 percent yesterday.
``The reemergence of global credit unrest is shaking confidence in the stock market, leading to sustained foreign selling,'' said Koby Koo, a senior dealer with Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. ``The dollar is likely to test the upside against the won.''
The won declined 0.4 percent this week to 948.55 against the dollar, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. That was the biggest loss since the week ended Jan. 25.
The Malaysian ringgit gained 0.2 percent this week to 3.2160, while Vietnam's dong added 0.1 percent to 15,944 per dollar. The Indonesian rupiah was little changed for the week at 9,172.
``We don't have many sovereigns in Asia with negative ratings,'' David Beers, head of sovereign and international ratings at Standard & Poor's, said in a Bloomberg television interview in Hong Kong. ``There are many sovereigns with a positive outlook.''
“Growth in our trade surplus slowed in the fourth quarter last year. This trend will continue this year as the surpluses with the U.S. and Japan keep shrinking,” he said, adding that this would also weigh on investment in China’s export-orientated sectors.
BEIJING, Feb 23 - China should not delay in stepping up efforts to tame inflation because price pressures are spreading and people are increasingly taking rising prices as a given, economists said on Saturday.
Extending a rising trend going back to May, China’s annual consumer inflation hit an 11-year high of 7.1 percent in January as fierce winter weather disrupted transport and damaged crops across southern China, driving up food prices.
“What’s more worrying is not inflation itself, but inflationary expectations,” Song Guoqing, a senior economist at Peking University, told a financial forum. He said the pattern of the current rise in prices was quite similar to that in the late 1980s, when inflation exceeded 20 percent. Inflation contributed to social unrest that culminated in the Tianmnen Square protests that were violently suppressed by the army in June 1989.
“Procrastination will only lead to even higher prices,” Song said, without specifying what exactly the authorities should do. To curb price rises and absorb excess liquidity, the central bank raised benchmark interest rates six times in 2007 and jacked up the proportion of deposits that banks have to hold in reserve on 10 occasions.
Song said that strong inflationary expectations might push up consumer prices at a double-digit pace before long.
Giving an example of how inflationary psychology can set in, Song calculated that one yuan deposited in the bank in 1980 was worth only 95 cents now in real terms, because inflation had eroded the accumulated interest.
TRADE SLOWDOWN
Policy makers have taken the view that inflation is largely confined to food, especially pork, China’s staple meat. Rising feed prices, rampant hog disease and low prices in 2006 that deterred farmers from raising pigs sharply reduced pork supplies.
But Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the State Information Centre, a government think-tank, cited a central bank survey as showing that eight out of 10 sectors were experiencing inflation.
Moreover, China’s experience shows that there is always a time lag before rapid economic growth translates into high price rises, Xu Xianchun, vice commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, told the forum.
Wang Jian, a senior research with the National Development and Reform Commission, the planning agency, said the government had to realise that it would be almost impossible to hold inflation below 3 percent when global commodity prices are rising so fast.
Xu of the statistics agency said China’s trade surplus would expand more slowly this year as growth in its major trading partners, including the United States and Japan, turned down.
China’s trade surplus rose by 48 percent in 2007 to $262.2 billion. The surplus dropped to $19.5 billion in January from $22.7 billion in December, but was still well above forecasts.
“We have sufficient evidence to say that the world economy will soften this year, which will weigh on Chinese growth,” Xu said.
“Growth in our trade surplus slowed in the fourth quarter last year. This trend will continue this year as the surpluses with the U.S. and Japan keep shrinking,” he said, adding that this would also weigh on investment in China’s export-orientated sectors.
Development fees may jump for non-residential sites
By Fiona Chan 22 February 2008
DEVELOPERS may soon have to pay more to redevelop non-residential sites such as land for hotels or hospitals.
A key government fee for redeveloping sites will be revised again next month, and property consultants expect it to be raised for land used for purposes other than to build homes.
The good news is: Development charges should not jump much for residential plots this time, after already having been jacked up a few times last year.
Selected areas, however, could still see bigger fee hikes, said consultants. These include Novena, Geylang, Ang Mo Kio and Orchard Boulevard, where recent strong land sales have pushed up values.
Development charges, which can amount to millions of dollars, are based on recent land and property values. They are calculated based on sectors and 118 locations, and adjusted in March and September every year to keep them up to date.
A rise in these charges for residential sites in some areas means that, for instance, it would be more expensive for developers to buy and redevelop collective sale estates in these parts of Singapore.
Overall, however, the current slowdown in the housing market means that the upcoming round of revisions should result in only very moderate rises for most residential sites.
Development charges for non-landed residential sites are likely to go up by only 10 per cent on average, compared to 58 per cent last September, said Ms Tay Huey Ying, the director of research and consultancy at Colliers International.
She said the soaring land prices that sent development charges surging last year have 'screeched almost to a halt' since last September.
In particular, the collective sale market - previously the main driver of spikes in development charges - has quietened to near-silence in the last few months.
Consultancy CB Richard Ellis also said it expects only 'moderate increases' in selected locations. These include Sixth Avenue and Sentosa for landed sites and Ardmore and Orchard Boulevard for non-landed sites.
It suggested that the Government may also slow the rate of rises in development fees after taking into consideration the 'subdued state' of the residential market. The once-frenzied response to both development sites and new home launches has waned significantly.
On the other hand, non-residential sites - including hospital, hotel, office and industrial land - are still seeing buoyant activity and could be subject to heftier fee hikes.
Hospital land could see the biggest overall hike in charges, boosted by the recent record bid for a state-owned site at Novena, said Colliers' Ms Tay. She is projecting a rise of between 15 per cent and 20 per cent on average for hospital sites.
DTZ Debenham Tie Leung added that funds have been moving their investments into hospital assets in Singapore, which could also prompt a rise in the development fees for this sector.
Also, industrial land - which saw a rise in development fees of just 2 per cent in the last round - should experience a much bigger jump, said consultants.
Office and hotel plots are also expected to have their development charges raised, by at least 30 per cent, said Jones Lang LaSalle.
Its director for South Asia research, Mr Chua Yang Liang, said the fees could be pushed up by recent office land sales at Jalan Sultan and Toa Payoh, and hotel plot sales at Upper Pickering Street and New Market Road.
HDB says prices of new flats pegged to current resale prices, flats in outer areas cheaper
Why is brother's flat cheaper?
‧ Brother buys flat last year. Now, he wants to buy one
‧ Same block, same floor, same size, so...
By Desmond Ng February 21, 2008
HIS brother had bought a new four-room HDB flat for $280,000 under the Balloting Exercise last February.
Earlier this month, he applied to buy a similar unit there, only to find out that the price had gone up to $364,000 - an increase of about 30 per cent.
The unit was the same size and was even on the same floor and block in Bukit Merah.
The buyer, a manager who wanted to be known only as Andy, felt that the price increase did not make sense.
'I was shocked when I saw the price online. Even my brother couldn't believe it. If there's no change in construction cost since the block is already built, why did the price go up?
'In general, the prices of flats in that area have increased, but not by such a huge jump.
'What's the explanation for the hike?' he asked.
HDB said that it is not appropriate to compare the twoprices as there is a one-year difference between the two sales launches.
In the pricing of new flats, HDB said it takes into account the market values of equivalent resale flats in the area.
The HDB resale market did exceptionally well last year, and prices increased by 17.5 per cent compared to year 2006.
Andy, who is in his 40s, decided to apply for a four-room flat in Bukit Merah despite having to pay more than his brother.
He is currently living in a HDB flat in the central part of Singapore.
'I've little choice. I want to live near my mum, who is living with my brother,' he said.
But another home-owner we spoke to in that estate is more than happy with the increased value of her new flat, even though she will not be able to sell it for five years.
Housewife Joyce Soh, 37, saw her flat's value go up by more than 20 per cent in a year.
She had bought the five-room flat last year and moved in three months ago.
She paid $408,000 for a 1,184sqft unit on the 24th floor.
Today, a similar-sized unit in the same block is going for about $502,800 in the latest Balloting Exercise, although it is on a lower floor, according to information from HDB's website.
POPULAR AREA
Ms Soh, who relocated from Taman Ho Swee, said she is not surprised by the increase in price.
'This location is very central and it's near the city,' she said.
'Prices of other HDB flats in this area are also some of the highest, too,' she said.
Bukit Merah is one of the most sought-after HDB estates due its proximity to town.
Record prices have become the norm in this estate and in nearby Queenstown.
Last June, a five-room flat in Bukit Merah was sold for $720,000.
In January, an executive flat in nearby Queenstown was sold for a whopping $890,000 - one of the most expensive Housing Board flats in the country.
PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail said it is unusual for prices of newflats to increase by such a huge percentage within a year.
He said it could be because flatprices for the Balloting Exercise (BE) last February were decided before the HDB market started to pick up during that quarter.
Mr Ismail also said that the HDBresale price increased by only 2 per cent for the whole of2006.
Last year, HDB resale prices rose by 1.3 per cent in the firstquarter and soared to 6.6 per cent in the third quarter.
Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR Property group, said that market valuation for resale flats has gone up at least 30per cent compared to last year.
Mr Cheng said: 'If resale prices increase, logically, new flat prices will increase too.
'And prices in Bukit Merah are also higher because of location and amenities.'
THE Housing Board said that it reviews the selling prices of its flats before a sales launch.
The flats at Jalan Membina offered this month were those not selected during the Feb '07 Balloting Exercise (BE) or they had been booked earlier but were subsequently cancelled.
There is a one-year difference between the two exercises, said HDB.
Said a HDB spokesman: 'It is not appropriate to compare the sale prices based on date of flat selection and date of sales launch since our prices are pegged to market prices as at the date of sales launches.'
As the HDB takes into account recent re-sale flat prices, 'the new flat prices are reflective of the recent prices of the resale flats in the vicinity'.
HDB said that the recently transacted prices of similar four-room and five-room resale flats in the same area had averaged about $479,000 and $622,000.
While HDB adjusts the selling prices of new HDB flats, it does keep prices below the equivalent market value so that flat buyers enjoy a substantial subsidy.
HIGHER DEMAND
The Housing Board added that the demand for flats has also picked up due to robust economic growth and improved sentiments in the property market.
'This has resulted in a rise of HDB resale flat prices, particularly in the second half of 2007.
'This is especially so for popular flats in mature estates.'
HDB also said that flats in non-mature estates are in general more affordable then those in mature estates, reflecting the differences in market values.
For example, the prices of Built-To-Order (BTO) flats at Sengkang and Punggol offered in the second half of 2007 ranged from $69,000 to $91,000 for a two-room flat, $116,000 to $152,000 for a three-room flat, and $180,000 to $252,000 for a four-room flat.
There is also ample supply of new HDB flats under the BTO sales exercises to cater to current marketdemand.
The Ministry of National Development said last November that HDB would step up its building programme and offer more new flats under the BTO exercises.
In total, about 4,500 new flats will be offered, mainly in the newer estates as such Punggol and Sengkang in the first half of 2008.
National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said on Sunday that property prices may be on the rise, but HDB flats still remain affordable for the average Singaporean.
By Qin Jize and Wang Zhenhua (China Daily) 2008-02-23
A recent Gallup survey comparing the economic might of China and the United States has drawn different reactions from people on the two sides of the Pacific Ocean.
The Gallup World Affairs Survey found that four out of 10 Americans saw China as the world economic leader, while only 33 percent picked the US.
Most respondents also said they believed China will likely be the world's top economy in two decades.
The same survey conducted in 2000 had 65 percent of Americans putting the US as the world's economic leader, while more than half of those polled thought the US would remain the world's top economic powerhouse for the following 20 years.
"I am afraid that public opinion in the US about the Chinese economy has been misled by the Western media," said Liu Liu, a civil servant in Guangzhou.
"It is well known that the economic gap between China and the United States remains huge."
Some analysts say the views of the general public can deviate from reality.
Huang Yiping, an economist at Citigroup, said China's rapid economic growth has fostered an illusion that it could overtake the US as the global economic leader.
"There used to be predictions in the 20th century that Germany, the former Soviet Union or Japan would overtake the US in terms of economic strength, but they all turned out to be wrong," Huang said.
The Gallup poll was conducted from February 11 to 14 and involved telephone interviews with 1,007 adults in the US, with a margin of error of around three percentage points.
The poll was conducted amid economic uncertainty in the US, shaken by turbulence in financial markets, a weak dollar and continuing worries over the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis.
China's economy, meanwhile, continues to enjoy record growth. The National Bureau of Statistics said last month that GDP growth for last year was 11.4 percent - the fastest in 13 years. It was the fifth year in a row in which growth topped 10 percent.
According to the latest statistics from the World Bank, the US was the world's biggest economy with a GDP of $13.2 trillion in 2006.
China, which had a GDP of close to $2.7 trillion, ranked fourth after Japan ($4.34 trillion) and Germany ($2.9 trillion).
China will issue 30 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) worth of "certificate treasury bonds" beginning March 1, the first such issue this year.
The T-bonds include 24 billion yuan worth of three-year bonds that carry a fixed annual interest rate of 5.74 percent, and six billion yuan worth of five-year bonds with a 6.34-percent interest rate, said the Ministry of Finance in a notice issued on Friday.
The purchasers must register their real names to buy the bonds, which can serve as security for loans, but cannot be transferred, said the ministry.
Interest on the bonds will be calculated from the day of purchase, and purchasers will receive the principal and interest when the certificate T-bonds fall due.
The public can buy the bonds from March 1 to 15 at the retailing outlets of 39 designated underwriting institutions, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, as well as some other commercial banks.
Credit default swaps (CDSs) are the latest financial instruments to be hit by market turmoil.
By Sean Farrell 22 February 2008
The rocketing cost of protecting corporate bonds has shone a light on another arcane corner of the financial world – the $45trn (£23trn) market for credit default swaps (CDS).
The cost of insuring the debt of US and European companies against default surged to all-time highs so that buyers of protection in the market were paying €126,500 (£95,500) a year to insure €10m of debt over five years.
The markets eased a little yesterday but Wednesday's surge to an all-time high was triggered by a panic that market experts are struggling to explain.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments linked to bonds and loans that are used to bet on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent if a borrower does not honour its debt. A rise in the cost of the instruments indicates greater fears about credit quality.
The troublesome part of the market is constant proportion debt obligations (CPDOs) – products that package indexes of credit-default swaps. The trouble is caused partly by fears about the corporate debt that underpins the products.
But "fundamentals" do not necessarily have to get worse to cause a widening of spreads – the difference in the cost of insuring a security compared with risk-free debt. Structured products have been set up with triggers to stop investors losing more than they put in, and it can take only a small fall in the value of the securities to hit these triggers which force the structured products to start to unwind.
This causes further nervousness so that spreads widen still more. A similar thing has happened to structured investment vehicles (SIVs), which are having to be bailed out by the banks that manage them.
What is going on in the CDS market is, analysts say, an example of the vicious cycles that have been a feature of the credit crunch. Analysts say structured products based on corporate debt may be tarred with the same brush as those backed by US sub-prime mortgages as investors flee the exotic debt instrumentse constructed in recent years.
Willem Sels, head of credit strategy at Dresdner Kleinwort, says: "Given that the market has seen a big fall over past weeks, losses in the derivatives and levered loan markets are so high that certain structured products hit contractual triggers where managers are forced to sell the portfolio. By doing so, they exacerbate the widening in the market, which in turn causes trigger levels with other investors to go off."
Some believe the market is "front-running" a jump in corporate debt default. The problems are made worse because the market has become illiquid.
"It is messy at the moment because people want to hedge their portfolios because they believe risk is imminent and few people want to go the other way," an analyst said.
CDOs package assets such as mortgage bonds and use the income from the debt to pay investors. CDOs made up of credit default swaps are known as synthetic because they do not contain the original bonds. Their value falls as the cost of credit-default swaps rises.
CPDOs are based on the US CDX and European iTraxx indices, which track the cost of default insurance. Some CPDOs are linked to banks and other financial institutions whose losses from the credit crunch have rocked investors' confidence.
"People are definitely concerned about counterparty failure and all the unknowns in the system. They are concerned about a major counterparty failure such as the monolines, a dealer or a big bank," one analyst said.
The problems in the CDS market are probably exacerbated by fear about the future of the monoline bond insurers whose credit ratings are under pressure. Investors are concerned that a monoline collapse could cause major damage to a big bank exposed to the securities they insure.
Critics of the market are emerging. John Moulton, managing partner of the private equity firm Alchemy Partners, said this week that he expected the CDS market to be the next blow-up in the credit crunch.
Bill Gross, managing director at PIMCO, the fixed-income manager, estimated that if total investment grade and junk bond defaults approached historical norms of 1.25 per cent in 2008 then $500bn of default contracts will be triggered, causing losses of at least $250bn for the parties who sold the protection.
"As capital gains and capital losses slosh from one side of the shadow system's boat to the other, casualties and shipwrecks are the inevitable consequence," said Mr Gross last month. "Goldman Sachs wins? Fine, but the losers in many cases will not be back for a return match."
Mr Sels said: "The ultimate risk is often held by investors without a very solid capital base and who use leverage, such as hedge funds. In fact, they are very often taking directional bets that are not really 'hedged'.
"Therefore, their capital can easily be wiped out or investors in the hedge fund can pull out their money, which will likely bring some of them under. They would not be the only ones to suffer though: banks would as well, as they are the counterparty on many of the derivatives transactions that hedge funds undertake."
22 comments:
On what the charts say for the STI, Kim Eng's online research unit KELive said in its 'Long & Short Report' yesterday that notwithstanding the recent post-Chinese New Year bounce, the long-term trend is down with a mid-term target of 2,650.
US recession may be as deep as in the 1990s
Fed likely to remain aggressive about cutting rates as a result, says Merrill
Feb 23, 2008
NEW YORK - THE United States is in a recession that could be much worse than what it faced in 2001, and closer to the sharper economic slump of the 1990s, investment bank Merrill Lynch has said.
The bank also said the US Federal Reserve would likely remain in ‘aggressive rate-cutting mode’ as a result, cutting rates by 50 basis points on March 18.
Merrill argued that the manufacturing slowdown in the US mid-Atlantic region showed a ‘collapse in business confidence’ to levels not seen since the 1990s recession.
‘A pullback in the outlook of this magnitude could be extremely corrosive to the economy because it means shuttering production, slashing inventories, deeper job cuts and even cancelling capital expenditure plans,’ Merrill said in a report on Thursday.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business activity index, a reading of factories in the mid-Atlantic region that is viewed as a precursor of national factory performance, fell to minus 24 this month, below expectations for a minus 11.
Readings below zero show contraction in the industrial sector.
The reading was worse than even the most pessimistic Wall Street forecast, and suggested that economic deterioration is happening even more rapidly than many expected as the housing downturn continues unabated.
‘The debate is no longer about whether the economy is in a recession. In our view, it is about how hard the landing will be,’ Merrill said.
The six-month outlook in the region has collapsed from a cycle high of 39.6 last October to minus 16.9 this month, the steepest decline ever recorded by the Fed report, the bank noted.
‘This is clearly pointing to an economy that is in a recession,’ said Mr Eric Green, an economist at Countrywide Financial.
The softness was pervasive and looked to be getting worse, with the index of six-month business conditions falling to its lowest level since 1990.
New orders remained in negative territory but improved to minus 10.9 from minus 15.2, although employment did turn positive after a dip last month.
Separately, the Conference Board’s index of leading US economic indicators fell for a fourth straight month in January, dropping 0.1 per cent and corroborating the weakness seen elsewhere in the economy.
‘Four monthly declines in a row ordinarily is taken as an indicator of a manufacturing recession,’ said Mr Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics.
These concerns drove the stock market sharply lower and triggered a rally in the US Treasury bond market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.96 points, or 1.2 per cent, to 12,284.3 at the closing bell on Thursday.
REUTERS
America’s economy risks the mother of all meltdowns
Smaller steel firms begin to raise price
22 February 2008
Many small and medium-sized steel manufacturers have raised their prices ahead of an expected price increase announcement by Baosteel, the nation’s largest steelmaker.
Jiangsu Shagang Group yesterday raised the factory price of screw steel by 240 yuan per ton.
Shandong Laigang Group raised the price of several steel products by 100 yuan per ton, and Baotou Steel announced it was raising hot-roll and cold-roll steel price by 400 yuan per ton from March.
The price of cold-roll steel quoted by distributors jumped sharply yesterday, ranging from 100 to 270 yuan per ton, according to statistics from Mysteel.com, which tracks steel sales.
Analysts said steel manufactures reacted quickly to the expectation of a larger price jump by two largest steelmakers, Baosteel and Shougang Group, in the second quarter.
“Many distributors are hoarding steel products and waiting for the price to rise,” said Gao Bo, an analyst at Mysteel website. In doing so, “they have created a temporary supply squeeze”, he said.
An industry insider said Baosteel’s price adjustment has already been settled in an internal meeting yesterday morning, and the new price will fully cover the rising cost from the expected 65 percent increase in iron ore price. But he declined to elaborate.
Analysts said the added cost from a 65 percent iron ore price jump ranged from 783 yuan to 824 yuan, and that the added cost for large steelmaker such as Baosteel is lower than that for other small and medium-sized manufactures.
Zhou Tao, an analyst at Sinolink Securities Co Ltd, said Baosteel can fully cover the rising raw material cost by raising price by 400 yuan per ton, or 10 percent, in the second quarter.
Baosteel has already raised steel price by around 10 percent in the first quarter this year. The company’s hot-rolled steel coil, commonly considered a market benchmark, was priced at 4,042 yuan a ton in the first quarter.
The 65 percent raw material price increase will add 500 to 550 yuan cost for Baosteel, and 600 to 650 yuan to Wuhan Steel, said Zhou.
The expected 65 percent ore price rise will translate into a rise of more than 20 percent in steel production costs, Zou Jian, chairman of Metallurgical Mines Association of China, told China Daily.
Rio Tinto group, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, has said it intends to hold out for a higher price than the 65 percent rise agreed between Vale of Brazil and Japanese and South Korean steelmakers because it believes it deserves a premium on its iron ore as its mines, which are in Australia, are closer to Asia than Vale’s.
Tony Loo, managing director of Rio Tinto China, earlier said the ore supplier would seek a freight premium on the iron ore it ships to Asian steelmakers.
Beware: Late-day rally killer on the loose
Market volatility in the final hour is a sign that nobody really knows where Wall Street is headed for the next few months.
February 22 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- There’s a saying among basketball fans that you need to watch only the last five minutes of the game. These days, that’s the case on Wall Street.
Lately, 3 p.m. is the time when either market rallies die or big sell-offs turn into nice pops.
On Thursday, for example, the major indexes all opened higher, dropped sharply in the final hour and hit their low points of the day shortly before the close. The same thing happened Tuesday.
The last hour isn’t always bad, however. The markets recovered from a tough start Wednesday - the Dow was down nearly 180 points at one point -and closed higher.
And then there’s the wackiness that ensued on Jan. 23, the day after the Fed’s emergency rate cut. The Dow was off as much as 326 points early in the day but thanks to a stunning rally in the final hour, it wound up closing higher by nearly 300 points.
What gives? Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said that he believes the last stretch of trading is dominated more by institutional investors than individual investors.
So the “smart” money (not to mention big money) is creating these wild end-of-the-day swings. And interestingly, it appears that average investors and big mutual funds and hedge funds don’t agree about where the market is headed.
This worries Ablin. “There is a tug of war between retail and institutional investors. It’s emblematic of the confusion going on. The economic outlook is so cloudy that it creates an environment of uncertainty,” he said.
But Rob Stein, managing partner and senior economist with Astor Asset Management, an investment firm in Chicago, said the market really hasn’t been all that volatile if you look at what it’s done over the past few weeks.
Even though there have been big moves on a day-to-day basis, stocks are still around the same level as they were following the Fed’s emergency rate cut.
The S&P 500, for example, closed at 1338.60 following the rally on Jan. 23. Yesterday, it closed at 1342.53.
“If you step back, the market appears more volatile than it really is because the ranges of the moves are so much bigger. But we’ve really done nothing since the Fed came to the rescue,” Stein said.
So what’s next? It depends on your stomach.
Ablin said investors should hold out for more clarity about the economy to emerge before buying stocks.
“Average investors should wait until at least April or May. It’s like jumping in the swimming pool without knowing what the temperature of the water is,” he said.
But Stein believes that if you can deal with some of the daily gyrations, this is exactly the time to jump into the market since he thinks there are many long-term values.
“We have a jittery market and if you don’t like that, sit on the sidelines. But whenever the market falls as much as it has over the past few months, it’s usually a good time to buy,” he said. “Stocks go up over time. You have to ignore the short-term fluctuations.”
That is sound advice. But keep in mind that if you want to test the market waters now, it might be a good idea to have a trusty bottle of Pepto-Bismol handy if you want to see how your portfolio is doing around 3 p.m.
Investors seek calmer waters amid bailout hopes
Anticipated Ambac rescue plan, worries about economy to influence trading
US recession may be as deep as in the 1990s
Fed likely to remain aggressive about cutting rates as a result, says Merrill
Goodbye and thank you
Singapore’s emigration rate, one of the highest in the world on a per capita basis, is a blow to the government.
INSIGHT DOWN SOUTH
BY SEAH CHIANG NEE
Saturday February 23, 2008
YEARS of strong economic growth have failed to stem Singapore’s skilled youths from leaving for a better life abroad, with the number topping 1,000 a year.
This works out to 4%-5%, or three in 10, of the highly educated population, a severe brain drain for a small, young nation, according to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.
Such high-end emigration is usually associated with less better-off countries where living conditions are poor. Here the opposite is the case.
Last year the economy created almost 200,000 jobs, far in excess of the 38,000 births recorded.
The future doesn’t look better, either, despite Lee holding out promises of “a golden period” in the next five to 10 years.
Lee believes the exodus, which has been worrying him for two decades, could only grow because “every year, there are more people going abroad for their first or second degree.”
The emigration rate, one of the highest in the world on a per capita basis, is a blow to the government, particularly to Lee, who takes pride in building up this once poor squatter colony into a glittering global city.
They are people who abandoned their citizenship for a foreign one, mostly in Australia, the United States and Canada.
It is particularly serious for two reasons. First, Singapore is a young nation that is working hard to consolidate its nationhood and its people, and second, its defence lies in a reservist army.
This is made up of young men who have served two years of compulsory military training when they reach the age of 18. Any big outflow will badly affect security, not to mention the economy.
Adding to a declining birth rate, the problem of emigration, which appears to have worsened during the past few decades as people became better educated, will further reduce the base of this well-trained people’s army.
Hundreds of thousands of foreigners and permanent residents who have come to Singapore help make up the numbers, but they do not have to serve national service.
The emigrants, mostly professionals, don’t leave Singapore out of poverty but to seek a better, less pressurised life.
Lee recently said the brain drain is touching close to this family.
Lee’s grandson, the elder son of Prime Minister Hsien Loong, who is studying in the United States, has indicated that he may not return.
Over the years, the children of several Cabinet ministers have also made Britain or the US their home.
Lee, aged 84, has often spoken on the issue with emotions, once tearing when referring to the losses.
However, he has offered no reasons for the exodus beyond economic opportunities, although the government more or less knows what they are.
Singaporeans who have or are planning to emigrate are given a host of 10 questions and asked to tick the three most important ones. They include the following: -
> High costs of living
> Singapore is too regulated and stifling
> Better career and prospects overseas
> Prefer a more relaxed lifestyle
> Uncertain future of Singapore.
Some liberal Singaporeans believe Lee himself, with his authoritarian leadership and unpopular policies, is largely to blame.
Singapore’s best-known writer Catherine Lim calls it a climate of fear that stops citizens from speaking out against the government, saying it could eventually lead to the decline of the state.
She praised the government for its economic achievements but added: “A compliant, fearful population that has never learnt to be politically savvy could spell the doom of Singapore.”
Globalisation, which offers opportunities in many countries like never before, is a big reason for the outflow.
Many countries, including populous China, are making a special effort to attract foreign talent.
Others who leave were worried about the future of their children living in a small island, and look for security and comfort of a larger country.
The exodus is more than made up – at least in numbers – by a larger intake of professionals from China and India.
“The trouble is many of the Chinese then use us as a stepping stone to go to America, where the grass is greener, Lee said.
“But even if we only keep 30%-40% and lose 60%-70%, we’re a net gainer,” he added.
He believed, however, that the Chinese would cease to come in 20 to 30 years’ time, when China’s living standards rise to match Singapore’s.
Some feel the large presence of foreigners, and the perks they enjoy over locals in military exemption as well as in scholarships, are themselves strong push factors.
They see the foreigners as a threat to jobs and space, undermining salaries and loosening the nation’s cohesion.
“I just feel very sad to see the Singapore of today with so many talented, passionate Singaporeans moving out and being replaced by many foreigners,” said one blogger. “I feel sorry for the future.”
Others point out the danger of an easy fix in numbers without regard to quality.
“Foreigners treat this place as a hotel, when the economy turns they will leave,” said a teacher who is seeing more and more foreign students in his class.
Lee recently made a passionate appeal to youths to think hard about their country. He said they had received education and opportunities provided by Singaporeans who had worked hard for it.
“Can you in good conscience say, ‘Goodbye! Thank you very much?’ Can you leave with a clear conscience? I cannot,” he said.
Singapore Seizes Life-Threatening Fake Sex-Enhancement Products
By Sophie Tan
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore seized more than 75,000 illegal products, including some sold as sexual-enhancement pills, after receiving reports of life-threatening reactions, the Health Sciences Authority said yesterday.
The pills, sold under the brand ``Power 1 Walnut,'' have more than five times the amount of the prescription drug glibenclamide that is used to treat diabetes, a level that can cause seizures, unconsciousness, strokes and death, according to the authority's Web site. They also contain sildenafil, the active ingredient in the erectile-dysfunction pill Viagra, made by Pfizer Inc.
The authority was alerted on Jan. 29 to the first case linked to consumption of the pills, which are manufactured in China, according to the product's packaging, the statement said.
As of yesterday, 10 people had suffered low blood sugar after taking the pills, with one individual in critical condition, it said. Another 29 people were suspected of experiencing similar effects, but they hadn't confirmed to the authority that they had taken the drugs.
The authority informed its counterparts in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China and Hong Kong, of the product's potential dangers, the statement said.
S'pore professor caught stealing panties from dorm
Reuters - Saturday, February 23
SINGAPORE, Feb 23 - A Singaporean professor who nicked bras and panties has pleaded guilty to stealing women's underwear from a university dormitory, a local newspaper reported on Saturday.
The 39-year old man -- an associate professor in a Chinese university -- was charged for taking women's underwear from a university hostel's clothes-line last December, the Straits Times reported.
The Singaporean professor, who teaches in China, was in the city-state for his leave when he committed the crime. He was caught by a dormitory security guard who found female undergarments in his haversack.
"I have heard stories before about underwear being stolen, but I never thought it would happen to me," a victim, who was not named, was quoted as saying.
A lawyer for the professor was reported as saying his client suffers from a psychiatric disorder and has been taking women's underwear since he was 14.
The lawyer also said that his client was an honourable and kind person who had no intention of causing annoyance to the underwear owners.
Asian Currencies: Taiwan, Singapore Dollars Climb on Inflation
By Aaron Pan
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Taiwan dollar led Asian currencies higher this week on speculation the region's central banks will allow faster gains to curb inflation.
The island's currency yesterday had the highest close since May 2006 after a government report on Feb. 21 showed faster- than-expected economic growth is driving up consumer prices. The local dollar has risen 3 percent this year, the best performer among the 10 most-active Asian currencies outside Japan. The Singapore dollar appreciated to a decade-high.
``The Taiwan dollar obviously is in an uptrend amid hopes for a better economic outlook and improving ties with China,'' said Tommy Huang, a bond trader at Taiwan International Securities Corp. in Taipei.
The currency advanced 0.8 percent in the five-day period to NT$31.495, the sixth weekly gain, according to Taipei Forex Inc. The Singapore dollar strengthened 0.5 percent to S$1.4063 while China's yuan rose 0.6 percent to 7.1418. Thailand's baht gained 0.7 percent to 32.31 onshore.
Central banks in China, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore will allow their currencies to strengthen to cool inflation, according to Pacific Investment Management Co., which overseas the world's biggest managed bond fund, and Pictet & Cie., Switzerland's largest closely held private bank.
Taiwan Growth
``Asian countries such as China and Singapore are trying to control faster inflation and have more room to accept a stronger currency,'' said Masashi Kurabe, head of the foreign-exchange sales & trading group at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``Economic fundamentals are also much better than the U.S.''
Taiwan's dollar may reach NT$31 in a month, Kurabe said.
Taiwan's government on Feb. 21 raised its inflation forecast for this year to 1.98 percent from a November prediction of 1.84 percent. The central bank yesterday denied an Economic Daily News report that cited Governor Perng Fai-nan as saying recent currency appreciation has helped curb inflation.
Exports to China helped Taiwan's economy expand 6.39 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, beating the median estimate of 5.65 percent in a Bloomberg News survey. Exports to China and Hong Kong increased 12.6 percent in 2007.
Taiwan's presidential election, due March 22, may improve ties with China. Ruling party presidential candidate Frank Hsieh said on Feb. 18 he will invite China's President Hu Jintao to the island. Opposition Kuomintang party's candidate Ma Ying-jeou has pledged to seek a peace agreement with China.
The Taiwan dollar pared its advance of as much as 0.7 percent yesterday to 0.1 percent on speculation the central bank sold the currency.
`Possibility of Intervention'
``The central bank seems to have come into the market closer to the end of trading session as they care about the closing price,'' said Sadaaki Kondou, assistant general manager of treasury at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Taipei. ``The basic trend is for the currency to appreciate but we can't ignore the possibility of intervention.''
The dollar fell 0.2 percent to $1.4841 per euro. It was at 107.10 yen from 107.40 late on Feb. 21 in New York.
The Singapore dollar rose to a decade high as the central bank allows ``slightly'' faster appreciation to lower import prices and curb inflation.
The currency had a second weekly gain before a government report next week that economists forecast will show consumer prices climbed by the most in a quarter century. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which guides its dollar within an undisclosed trading range, said in October it would ``increase slightly the slope of the policy band.''
Singapore Inflation
``Inflation is a concern for Singapore and the MAS will allow for an appreciation of the currency to reduce import prices,'' said Hideki Hayashi, chief economist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``The Singapore dollar will remain under pressure to appreciate.''
Singapore's dollar advanced to S$1.4059, the highest since February 1997. Singapore's central bank seeks to keep its dollar from rising or falling outside of the band.
One loser in the region this week was South Korea's won, which had its biggest weekly loss in a month as overseas investors added to their sales of the nation's stocks.
The Korean currency has dropped 1.3 percent this year. Overseas fund managers sold stocks every day this year except four. The nation's benchmark stock index fell 1.1 percent yesterday.
``The reemergence of global credit unrest is shaking confidence in the stock market, leading to sustained foreign selling,'' said Koby Koo, a senior dealer with Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. ``The dollar is likely to test the upside against the won.''
The won declined 0.4 percent this week to 948.55 against the dollar, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. That was the biggest loss since the week ended Jan. 25.
The Malaysian ringgit gained 0.2 percent this week to 3.2160, while Vietnam's dong added 0.1 percent to 15,944 per dollar. The Indonesian rupiah was little changed for the week at 9,172.
``We don't have many sovereigns in Asia with negative ratings,'' David Beers, head of sovereign and international ratings at Standard & Poor's, said in a Bloomberg television interview in Hong Kong. ``There are many sovereigns with a positive outlook.''
China must not hesitate to curb inflation
“Growth in our trade surplus slowed in the fourth quarter last year. This trend will continue this year as the surpluses with the U.S. and Japan keep shrinking,” he said, adding that this would also weigh on investment in China’s export-orientated sectors.
BEIJING, Feb 23 - China should not delay in stepping up efforts to tame inflation because price pressures are spreading and people are increasingly taking rising prices as a given, economists said on Saturday.
Extending a rising trend going back to May, China’s annual consumer inflation hit an 11-year high of 7.1 percent in January as fierce winter weather disrupted transport and damaged crops across southern China, driving up food prices.
“What’s more worrying is not inflation itself, but inflationary expectations,” Song Guoqing, a senior economist at Peking University, told a financial forum.
He said the pattern of the current rise in prices was quite similar to that in the late 1980s, when inflation exceeded 20 percent. Inflation contributed to social unrest that culminated in the Tianmnen Square protests that were violently suppressed by the army in June 1989.
“Procrastination will only lead to even higher prices,” Song said, without specifying what exactly the authorities should do.
To curb price rises and absorb excess liquidity, the central bank raised benchmark interest rates six times in 2007 and jacked up the proportion of deposits that banks have to hold in reserve on 10 occasions.
Song said that strong inflationary expectations might push up consumer prices at a double-digit pace before long.
Giving an example of how inflationary psychology can set in, Song calculated that one yuan deposited in the bank in 1980 was worth only 95 cents now in real terms, because inflation had eroded the accumulated interest.
TRADE SLOWDOWN
Policy makers have taken the view that inflation is largely confined to food, especially pork, China’s staple meat. Rising feed prices, rampant hog disease and low prices in 2006 that deterred farmers from raising pigs sharply reduced pork supplies.
But Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the State Information Centre, a government think-tank, cited a central bank survey as showing that eight out of 10 sectors were experiencing inflation.
Moreover, China’s experience shows that there is always a time lag before rapid economic growth translates into high price rises, Xu Xianchun, vice commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, told the forum.
Wang Jian, a senior research with the National Development and Reform Commission, the planning agency, said the government had to realise that it would be almost impossible to hold inflation below 3 percent when global commodity prices are rising so fast.
Xu of the statistics agency said China’s trade surplus would expand more slowly this year as growth in its major trading partners, including the United States and Japan, turned down.
China’s trade surplus rose by 48 percent in 2007 to $262.2 billion. The surplus dropped to $19.5 billion in January from $22.7 billion in December, but was still well above forecasts.
“We have sufficient evidence to say that the world economy will soften this year, which will weigh on Chinese growth,” Xu said.
“Growth in our trade surplus slowed in the fourth quarter last year. This trend will continue this year as the surpluses with the U.S. and Japan keep shrinking,” he said, adding that this would also weigh on investment in China’s export-orientated sectors.
全球因素將推高中國通脹
南方週末/文◎賀軍
2008年02月22日
現在，全球通脹和美元貶值就像大團的烏雲越堆越濃，並且開始擂響中國反通脹的戰鼓。在此背景下，既定的 “雙防”（防過熱、防通脹）政策不能動搖
宏觀政策不因雪災和美國經濟放緩而改變
市場關注的1月份經濟資料陸續出臺。市場的關注來自於這樣一種普遍期待：在大雪災和全球放緩的背景下，中國1月的經濟運行情況到底如何？中國的宏觀政策是否會因不確定性而調整？
陸續出爐的資料逐漸廓清了不確定的形勢。據國家統計局最新公佈，1月份居民消費價格總水準（CPI）同比上漲7.1%，創下去年以來的新高。從結構看，最 大的漲價推動來自食品價格，同比上漲了18.2%。其中，糧食價格上漲5.7%，油脂價格上漲37.1%，肉禽及其製品價格上漲41.2%，豬肉價格上漲 58.8%，鮮菜價格上漲13.7%，鮮果價格上漲10.3%。國家統計局公佈的工業品出廠價格指數（PPI），也顯示了持續上漲的勢頭，1月份PPI同 比上漲6.1%，原材料、燃料、動力購進價格上漲8.9%。從物價看，價格上漲仍然延續了去年以來的上揚態勢，情況嚴峻。
此外的一些中國經濟資料，也顯示了經濟運行十分活躍。從中國的出口增速這個關鍵資料來看，1月出口總額達1096.6億美元，同比增長26.7%，保持了較為可觀的增速。而1月份中國的外商直接投資（FDI）達到112億美元，較上年同期大幅增長109.78%。
中國官員日前對宏觀調控方向不變的表態，實際上提前透露了1月的經濟情況，也澄清了近期縈繞在市場上的政策迷霧。我們注意到，隨著全球經濟環境以及雪災衝擊等兩大不確定因素逐漸變得清晰，中國的宏觀政策正在迅速回到既定的軌道上來。
在我們看來，這種政策的”複歸”是很有必要的，它不僅向市場清晰地傳達出了未來政策的重點所在，還再次明確了對中國經濟所面臨主要矛盾的判斷–不能因為短期突發因素的干擾，而改變既定的”雙防”（防經濟過熱、防通貨膨脹）的政策。
國際鐵礦石價格再漲65%
中國經濟今年面臨的最大問題，仍然是通貨膨脹。從最新形勢看，國際國內的一系列因素，正在擂響中國反通貨膨脹的戰鼓。
據國內外多家媒體報導，消息人士日前透露，2008年度國際鐵礦石價格談判，已經由國外鋼廠率先達成一致：國際鐵礦石基準價格將在2007年的基礎上上漲 65%。消息人士未透露率先定價的談判雙方，但市場人士分析，礦山方可能為巴西淡水河谷，鋼廠方可能為日本新日鐵。按照談判慣例，這一價格隨後將為參與談 判的各供需方所接受。
這意味著，作為全球最大的鐵礦石進口國，中國在2008年度的鐵礦石基準定價中再度失手，再次重複了過去的”宿命”–我們擁有市場，卻遠離遊戲規則。
從2005年至2007年，國際鐵礦石基準價格漲幅分別為71.5%、19%和9.5%。如果按65%的漲幅，中國進口鐵礦石的成本將大幅上升，這將推動鋼鐵行業以及下游一系列產業的成本上升。這對於中國持續加大的通脹壓力，無疑是雪上加霜。
更多熱錢湧入，資產和物價上漲勢頭不減
大宗商品價格普遍上漲，只是推高國內通脹壓力的一方面因素。今年更大的影響，則來自國際資金繼續洶湧流入中國。在中國經濟持續高速增長、人民幣繼續升值的 背景下，各種資金紛紛進入中國進行套利。中國1月份實際FDI同比大幅增長109.78%，顯然不完全是”傳統”的FDI，而是顯示國際遊資繼續大規模借道投資流入中國。
有學者根據官方資料計算了中國的”外匯儲備-貿易順差-FDI”的資料，發現這部分”疑似熱錢”的資料雖然有很大波動，但基本勢頭是在大幅增加：2003 年該資料為378億美元，2004年是1141億美元，2005年是466億美元，2006年是6億美元，2007年是1170億美元。在對2006年和 2007年資料進行調整之後，2006和2007年分別是764億美元和2051億美元。這個簡單的計算顯示出，熱錢流入中國的形勢在不斷加劇。
在2008年，國際資金流入中國的基本動因未變。美國經濟將會放緩，美聯儲很大可能會繼續降息，美元仍將持續貶值。說白了，美國將繼續開動印鈔機，向全球 市場輸出流動性。正如我們過去所分析：如果其他各國堅持不減息，全球的美元數量將繼續增加，美元在全球交易中的占比將進一步增加，美國人可以用印刷出來的 “綠紙”，去換回來更多貨真價實的商品或服務。而如果其他各國央行跟隨減息，那麼全球貨幣供應量將因此而暴增，全球貨幣一起貶值，全球商品一起漲價。在這 種背景下，經濟仍將高速增長、人民幣升幅不夠的中國，只能扮演美元”蓄水池”的角色，資產泡沫和物價上漲的勢頭依然不減。
在關注外部經濟不確定性風險的同時，我們不能忘記過去經歷了一年失誤才得出的對中國形勢的基本判斷。雖然1月的資料還不足以完全顯示今年中國經濟的開局形 勢，更明確的判斷要到一季度結束才能得出，但從當前形勢看，國際國內的多種因素可能使中國今年難改去年面臨的局面–流動性過剩和通脹形勢依然不改，甚至 可能更為嚴峻。
現在，全球通脹和美元貶值就像大團的烏雲越堆越濃，對於決策者而言，在宏觀政策上務必把握今年的政策重點，堅定不移地應對日益加劇的通脹壓力。
南中國大雪災暴露出的問題
南方週末/文◎蘇永通
2008年02月22日
從1月上旬開始，南中國發生罕見自然災害，中國的災難應急模式在經歷巨大考驗後暴露出哪些問題？有哪些需要總結之處？
早在2003年SARS之後，中國就在加速突發公共事件應急機制建設，各級政府制定了有關自然災害、事故災難、公共衛生事件和社會安全事件的應急預案。2007年11月1日，國家突發事件應對法正式實施，明確我國要建立統一領導、綜合協調、分類管理、分級負責、屬地管理為主的應急管理體制。
但此次雪災所暴露出的問題表明，目前的應急體制並不樂觀，如果說”九八抗洪”，中國面對單一事件時尚可應付，此次面對複雜事件，我們的應急體制，包括治理模式都有值得反思之處。
本報就此話題專訪了突發事件應對法起草專家組成員。
‧莫紀宏（中國社會科學院法學研究所研究員，突發事件應對法起草專家組成員）
‧莫於川（中國人民大學法學院教授，突發事件應對法起草專家組成員）
政府反應慢的原因
南方週末：冰雪1月10日起突襲南中國，但半個多月後才開始全國統一協調的救災行動，有人認為政府反應遲緩，如何看這個時間差？
莫紀宏：政府應急反應基本是符合要求的。這次雪災是五十年一遇。政府的反應慢是因為情況變化太快，一月中旬，有些地方還在讚歎瑞雪兆豐年。但並不是說沒有教訓，比如地方政府沒能對大雪成災有預期，而5個關於自然災害救助的國家應急專項預案中，又不包括雪災。
這次雪災之所以造成如此大的問題，除了雪災超出常規外，還包括遇到春運，兩者疊加就把消極影響擴大了。目前，不論是國家層面還是地方層面或者是部門的各類應急預案，都只針對特定突發事件，而”複合性突發事件”很容易擴大突發事件所造成的消極影響。儘管是兩種以上低級別的突發事件，如果同時發生，可能就會導 致預警級別的提高。
南方週末：此次雪災是否可啟動國家層面的一級預警回應機制？
莫紀宏：實事求是地說，此次突發事件的緊急程度，足以啟動國家層面的一級預警回應機制。我們目前的預案是分級的，最初我們的考慮是突發事件程度不一，小的事件可在特定區域解決。而國家級預案的啟動要涉及兩個以上的省份。這樣的分類對不對？這次看起來是有問題的。地域上劃清楚了，但嚴重性是容易交叉的。
比如：是不是省級應急預案到了一級預警狀態，才足以啟動國家級四級預警響應機制？這都沒說清楚。對於每個能啟動預案的主體而言，如何啟動預案，存在很大的模糊區域。地方要不要啟動還好說，省市縣同時啟動都沒事。問題是中央一啟動就是大事。
國家級預案，什麼時候適用，怎麼啟動，立法時也不是很有數。所以這次感覺反應慢了，可能有這個原因。
法律沒太派上用場
南方週末：去年11月1日，突發事件應對法開始實施。由於SARS等突發事件的教訓，大家對這部法律充滿期待。但從此次抗擊雪災來看，這部法律發揮的作用似乎不大？
莫紀宏：此次雪災中，現行的應急預案制度以及突發事件應對法所確立的應急體制應有的組織、協調和防範作用，並沒有完全發揮出來，真正的應急工作還是依靠目前高度統一和一元化的黨政領導體制來完成。當然，突發性事件發生時，無論是否有預案，都需要依靠強有力的行政管理機制來加以保障。
中國現有的一元化的黨政決策體制和中央地方關係，很適合救災。比如這一體制整合力量及時、有效，容易解決矛盾。在此次救災中，法律和預案只起到一些補充細化的作用，法律沒太派上用場，給人有點”兩張皮”的感覺。
但這不應成為常態，災害來了，如果平常工作不做好，什麼準備都沒有，再強有力的領導出面也很費勁，基礎工作做好了，領導出面就事半功倍。
南方週末：但大家之所以期待法律發揮作用就是擔心，如果沒有足夠的敏感度察覺到事件的危害性，不引起足夠重視，後果會很糟糕。
莫紀宏：從法律角度看，政府總理到哪，實際上，具體的法律就可以在哪發揮作用。總理到現場，實際上已經是國家層面的一級回應了。不過，也要總結經驗教訓，能讓省級政府更好地分擔，不要輕易啟動國家級預案。
南方週末：我們目前的抗擊雪災應急機制與1998年抗洪相比，有很大不同嗎？
莫紀宏：抗洪時還沒形成系統的應急概念。而現在，大家的抗災意識明顯加強了。大家都知道，要防患於未然，按法律解決問題，按一些事先做好的方案來做。救災行動也比以前規範多了，以前只是臨時抓，各部門、各單位、社會組織和公民個人在救災應急中的法律義務、職責都不是很清晰。
南方週末：有人認為，半軍事化或者軍事化的救災機制可能更能奏效，怎麼看？
莫紀宏：軍隊主要起救援作用。軍隊管理與地方管理是兩套體制，涉及軍事安全，很複雜。現在和平時期還好，主要還是要依靠日常的應急力量，先動用員警，不行再找軍隊。坦克能壓多少冰？還是要多依靠日常的應急手段。
是否該問責
南方週末：我們從SARS後開始建立的國家應急體系，現在處於什麼樣的發展階段？當務之急是什麼？
莫紀宏：制度框架基本建成，還需要細化，把法律規定變成日常制度，該儲備的儲備，該演習的演習，要使應急工作常規化，要讓政府和公眾坦然應對突發事件。同樣是大雪，江蘇省的準備工作就做得比較好。而有個別省份就差一點。平常沒有英雄，抗洪救災的時候就有英雄了，平時做好了，根本就不需要英雄。
南方週末：許多幹部在抗災中盡職盡責，但也有人要問，你平時工作哪去了，災後是否應啟動問責機制？
莫於川：平時多流汗，戰時少流血。基礎性工作做得不夠，這次暴露出這個問題了。按照應急法、應急預案的標準，在常態無突發事件下，有關主管部門或者政府首長要下決心，集中人財物力、人才編制，做好基礎性工作。但這些建設很難馬上見成效，這涉及幹部考核機制問題。至於問責機制，該表彰的要表彰，該批評的要批評，也應 找出平時的責任。
莫紀宏：預防、監測、預報，平時工作做得怎樣，不好檢驗。除非偷工減料，怠忽職守，故意破壞應急預防工作，一般情況下不好將法律責任機制簡單化。像有些地方，領導剛上任幾天就遇到重大突發事件，如果因工作失職被免職，實際上也很難真正起到應有的懲戒和教育作用。
南方週末：資訊不暢是SARS時最重要的教訓之一。這次資訊披露情況如何？
莫於川：和2003年SARS相比好很多。但也出現一些問題。比如新華社記者到某省某部門採訪被認為是”添亂”，而1月25日京珠高速公路之所以出現嚴重大堵車，也與各方發佈通車資訊混亂有關，致使許多不知情的車輛進入湖南後無法出去。
是否應成立應急部？
南方週末：有一種批評認為，由於地方政府與中央部門出現不同聲音，導致民工大量湧入廣州站，在救災中，中央與地方、部門之間的關係非常重要，應怎樣協調？
莫紀宏：廣東、浙江鼓勵民工留下來過年，是很好的措施。但後來不少人又回來了，這個問題比較複雜。中央與地方啟動的應急機制應該協調，否則形成的不是合力，而是斥力。我們現在的行政層級管理體制，下級不行就找上一級。關鍵問題是，有時候沒必要讓領導人來，我們體制的矛盾在於，省長部長有矛盾時，只有總理出面才能解決。
南方週末：目前我們應急的組織機制是怎樣的？
莫紀宏：以部門為主，比如抗震救災的指揮部設在國家地震局，關鍵的時候總理去，由他來協調。
以雪災為例，涉及範圍這麼大，誰來管？怎麼做？都抓瞎了。假如地震來了，馬上就能啟動，防震減災的指揮部就在地震局系統，大家都知道該誰管。而這雪災歸誰管？氣象局管嗎？誰也不知道。這更證明要有預案。沒預案，工作就被動。
此次發生在南方各省的自然災害表明，我國現行的以部門為龍頭的突發事件應對組織機制存在很大問題。
南方週末：從中央到各地，紛紛成立了應急辦，它能發揮怎樣的作用？
莫紀宏：實際上，雪災應該由應急辦管，但各級政府下屬的專門應急辦公室只是一種協調性機構，還不能真正具有統一組織、指揮和協調各種突發事件應對工作。在突發事件應對工作中還存在以部門職能為中心的部門主義傾向，缺少單一的應急指揮組織管理系統。
我國目前正在推進的”大部委制改革”思路，很適合改革現行突發事件應對組織體制的要求。可考慮成立集中統一管理突發事件應對工作的具有大部委性質的”應急管理委員會”（或者”應急部”），克服目前在突發事件應對組織體制領域過於分散，制度化水準低的弊端。
而由於機構改革的複雜性，建議將各級應急辦公室或機構改為實體性的應急指揮機構，統一行使各項應急指揮職權，一旦有災，不論發生在何時、何地，依靠統一集中的應急指揮系統立即投入應急救災活動，第一時間內將突發事件控制在萌芽狀態，提高應急工作效率。
如果戰爭來臨會怎樣
南方週末：最近有外刊指出，中國雪災處理過程凸顯出中國嚴重缺乏處理重大自然災害危機的經驗，因而判斷大陸缺乏對臺灣軍事攤牌的應變能力，你怎麼看？
莫紀宏：這個判斷其實是不對的。打仗是打仗的事情。這次真正因雪災造成的壓力沒這麼大，主要是春運造成的。不過，國外的關注值得我們注意和加以研究。
南方週末：但值得思考的是，在現有應急體制下，如果有更嚴重的災害，我們有沒有辦法去應對？
莫紀宏：按我們現有的體制，完全有能力應對一般性常規的災害。洪水、SARS都頂過去了。
現在不能隨意進行戰爭宣傳，否則會導致實際應對戰爭能力降低，這些問題需要加以研究。今後怎樣進一步完善動員制度，進一步提高國家安全度。我們現在搞經濟建設，不可能經常性地演習戰爭應急狀態，只能是戰爭爆發後，通過一個適應期來儘快適應應急活動的要求。
南方週末：這次雪災的情況，是否可進入緊急狀態？廣州站最多幾十萬人，個別地方也曾引發小規模混亂。
莫紀宏：最開始，我們是按緊急狀態法來立法的，後來分為突發事件應對法和緊急狀態法兩部分。所謂緊急狀態，國外通行的標準，是對國家的安全造成威脅。這種情況不多，一般是內亂、外來侵略。
考慮到各種敏感因素，進入緊急狀態會被簡單地理解成是不是要打仗了。因此，將兩種制度區分開來，謹慎使用是有好處的。緊急狀態對公民的權利限制會更嚴，還有軍隊要介入，在平常時期應儘量避免。
偷情让女人更懂得什么是爱？
来源: 海报网
2008年02月15日
对于女人来说，偷情仅仅只能是一杯红酒，它有利于女人健康，让女人妩媚，但不会让女人迷醉。
注意！偷情不是偷性，更不是偷一些能够以物质转换的东西。偷情--一个香汗淋淋、呼吸急促，一个令神经高度紧张后松弛的快感的字眼，一个包含着探秘、好奇、兴奋、忐忑甚至内疚的字眼。偷情与爱情无关，当然也与出轨无关。偷情是身体嗅觉的短暂迷路，是心灵焦距的短暂模糊，女人一生都应该做一回偷情的贼！
偷情满足女人的好奇心
相对于男人来说，女人对于躺在她身边的这个叫做丈夫的男人永远都充满着一种好奇，许多女人至死都想解开这个谜团：为什么芸芸众生中，我就和这个男人厮守了一生？因此，女人应该有一次偷情的探险。
这探险的过程，就是一步步解开女人心结的过程，那个叫丈夫的男人，其实就是宿命的一种安排，说邂逅也好，说天意也罢。回过头来，女人发现，她永远也成不了探险家，因为，女人从任何男人、包括自己丈夫那里得到的永远只有两个字--失落。就像打开大盒套小盒的礼物一样，随着包装一层层打开，期望值也越来越高，而结果却早有预料，除了失落还有什么？
偷情让女人更懂得什么是爱
女人是一个对爱的渴求永远也不会满足的动物。她需要男人的呵护，需要男人的重视，需要和男人的身心达到高度的合二为一，尽管女人也知道这是多么天真的幻想。偷情也许能够一时满足女人对爱的要求。
但是，女人会很快发现，她所需要的爱一定是安全的，是合乎道义准则的，但只要是偷情，那么，女人就无法让自己自由，无法肆意自己的情感。
尤为重要的是，女人穷极一生追逐的就是自己是爱的宠儿，这样的感受必须一定是被社会认可的，而偷情无法让女人体会这样的感受，也许，爱的真正意义就是如此。
偷情让女人更加了解自己
每个人都有两面，一个荡妇、一个淑女完全可以集合于一个女人身上。当一个女人以荡妇的状态放纵自己的时候，她会发现，世界也变了；反之，当她以淑女的形象示人的时候，她又会发现生活的真正本质。
偷情，让女人更加了解自己，知道自己最渴望得到什么，什么是自己最看重的，这对女人来说很重要，有选择，就懂得放弃。偷情，让女人目标明确，脚步坚实。
偷情让女人更女人，偷情的女人风情万种
偷情就像时下风行的海选，不是任何女人都能够“偷”到情，也不是任何女人都有能力，有魅力，有勇气，有机会，有愿望“偷”到情的。而最终偷情成功的女人，一定优秀的女人，一定是女人中的极品。
因此，女人偷情的过程，就是一种历练的过程，是一个让女人脱胎换骨的过程，女人的一生，要恋爱，要婚姻，要生育，更要偷情。
但是，偷情仅仅只能是在平缓河流上行驶的小舟偶尔不期而遇的风浪，这风浪不至于让小舟颠覆，更使小舟鼓满帆，勇往直前；偷情仅仅是夏季里的雷阵雨，风雨过后，依旧是阳光灿烂。
对于女人来说，偷情仅仅只能是一杯红酒，它有利于女人健康，让女人妩媚，但不会让女人迷醉。
偷情，一生只能一回。
Development fees may jump for non-residential sites
By Fiona Chan
22 February 2008
DEVELOPERS may soon have to pay more to redevelop non-residential sites such as land for hotels or hospitals.
A key government fee for redeveloping sites will be revised again next month, and property consultants expect it to be raised for land used for purposes other than to build homes.
The good news is: Development charges should not jump much for residential plots this time, after already having been jacked up a few times last year.
Selected areas, however, could still see bigger fee hikes, said consultants. These include Novena, Geylang, Ang Mo Kio and Orchard Boulevard, where recent strong land sales have pushed up values.
Development charges, which can amount to millions of dollars, are based on recent land and property values. They are calculated based on sectors and 118 locations, and adjusted in March and September every year to keep them up to date.
A rise in these charges for residential sites in some areas means that, for instance, it would be more expensive for developers to buy and redevelop collective sale estates in these parts of Singapore.
Overall, however, the current slowdown in the housing market means that the upcoming round of revisions should result in only very moderate rises for most residential sites.
Development charges for non-landed residential sites are likely to go up by only 10 per cent on average, compared to 58 per cent last September, said Ms Tay Huey Ying, the director of research and consultancy at Colliers International.
She said the soaring land prices that sent development charges surging last year have 'screeched almost to a halt' since last September.
In particular, the collective sale market - previously the main driver of spikes in development charges - has quietened to near-silence in the last few months.
Consultancy CB Richard Ellis also said it expects only 'moderate increases' in selected locations. These include Sixth Avenue and Sentosa for landed sites and Ardmore and Orchard Boulevard for non-landed sites.
It suggested that the Government may also slow the rate of rises in development fees after taking into consideration the 'subdued state' of the residential market. The once-frenzied response to both development sites and new home launches has waned significantly.
On the other hand, non-residential sites - including hospital, hotel, office and industrial land - are still seeing buoyant activity and could be subject to heftier fee hikes.
Hospital land could see the biggest overall hike in charges, boosted by the recent record bid for a state-owned site at Novena, said Colliers' Ms Tay. She is projecting a rise of between 15 per cent and 20 per cent on average for hospital sites.
DTZ Debenham Tie Leung added that funds have been moving their investments into hospital assets in Singapore, which could also prompt a rise in the development fees for this sector.
Also, industrial land - which saw a rise in development fees of just 2 per cent in the last round - should experience a much bigger jump, said consultants.
Office and hotel plots are also expected to have their development charges raised, by at least 30 per cent, said Jones Lang LaSalle.
Its director for South Asia research, Mr Chua Yang Liang, said the fees could be pushed up by recent office land sales at Jalan Sultan and Toa Payoh, and hotel plot sales at Upper Pickering Street and New Market Road.
HDB says prices of new flats pegged to current resale prices, flats in outer areas cheaper
Why is brother's flat cheaper?
‧ Brother buys flat last year. Now, he wants to buy one
‧ Same block, same floor, same size, so...
By Desmond Ng
February 21, 2008
HIS brother had bought a new four-room HDB flat for $280,000 under the Balloting Exercise last February.
Earlier this month, he applied to buy a similar unit there, only to find out that the price had gone up to $364,000 - an increase of about 30 per cent.
The unit was the same size and was even on the same floor and block in Bukit Merah.
The buyer, a manager who wanted to be known only as Andy, felt that the price increase did not make sense.
'I was shocked when I saw the price online. Even my brother couldn't believe it. If there's no change in construction cost since the block is already built, why did the price go up?
'In general, the prices of flats in that area have increased, but not by such a huge jump.
'What's the explanation for the hike?' he asked.
HDB said that it is not appropriate to compare the twoprices as there is a one-year difference between the two sales launches.
In the pricing of new flats, HDB said it takes into account the market values of equivalent resale flats in the area.
The HDB resale market did exceptionally well last year, and prices increased by 17.5 per cent compared to year 2006.
Andy, who is in his 40s, decided to apply for a four-room flat in Bukit Merah despite having to pay more than his brother.
He is currently living in a HDB flat in the central part of Singapore.
'I've little choice. I want to live near my mum, who is living with my brother,' he said.
But another home-owner we spoke to in that estate is more than happy with the increased value of her new flat, even though she will not be able to sell it for five years.
Housewife Joyce Soh, 37, saw her flat's value go up by more than 20 per cent in a year.
She had bought the five-room flat last year and moved in three months ago.
She paid $408,000 for a 1,184sqft unit on the 24th floor.
Today, a similar-sized unit in the same block is going for about $502,800 in the latest Balloting Exercise, although it is on a lower floor, according to information from HDB's website.
POPULAR AREA
Ms Soh, who relocated from Taman Ho Swee, said she is not surprised by the increase in price.
'This location is very central and it's near the city,' she said.
'Prices of other HDB flats in this area are also some of the highest, too,' she said.
Bukit Merah is one of the most sought-after HDB estates due its proximity to town.
Record prices have become the norm in this estate and in nearby Queenstown.
Last June, a five-room flat in Bukit Merah was sold for $720,000.
In January, an executive flat in nearby Queenstown was sold for a whopping $890,000 - one of the most expensive Housing Board flats in the country.
PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail said it is unusual for prices of newflats to increase by such a huge percentage within a year.
He said it could be because flatprices for the Balloting Exercise (BE) last February were decided before the HDB market started to pick up during that quarter.
Mr Ismail also said that the HDBresale price increased by only 2 per cent for the whole of2006.
Last year, HDB resale prices rose by 1.3 per cent in the firstquarter and soared to 6.6 per cent in the third quarter.
Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR Property group, said that market valuation for resale flats has gone up at least 30per cent compared to last year.
Mr Cheng said: 'If resale prices increase, logically, new flat prices will increase too.
'And prices in Bukit Merah are also higher because of location and amenities.'
One-year gap between flat sales significant: HDB
February 21, 2008
THE Housing Board said that it reviews the selling prices of its flats before a sales launch.
The flats at Jalan Membina offered this month were those not selected during the Feb '07 Balloting Exercise (BE) or they had been booked earlier but were subsequently cancelled.
There is a one-year difference between the two exercises, said HDB.
Said a HDB spokesman: 'It is not appropriate to compare the sale prices based on date of flat selection and date of sales launch since our prices are pegged to market prices as at the date of sales launches.'
As the HDB takes into account recent re-sale flat prices, 'the new flat prices are reflective of the recent prices of the resale flats in the vicinity'.
HDB said that the recently transacted prices of similar four-room and five-room resale flats in the same area had averaged about $479,000 and $622,000.
While HDB adjusts the selling prices of new HDB flats, it does keep prices below the equivalent market value so that flat buyers enjoy a substantial subsidy.
HIGHER DEMAND
The Housing Board added that the demand for flats has also picked up due to robust economic growth and improved sentiments in the property market.
'This has resulted in a rise of HDB resale flat prices, particularly in the second half of 2007.
'This is especially so for popular flats in mature estates.'
HDB also said that flats in non-mature estates are in general more affordable then those in mature estates, reflecting the differences in market values.
For example, the prices of Built-To-Order (BTO) flats at Sengkang and Punggol offered in the second half of 2007 ranged from $69,000 to $91,000 for a two-room flat, $116,000 to $152,000 for a three-room flat, and $180,000 to $252,000 for a four-room flat.
There is also ample supply of new HDB flats under the BTO sales exercises to cater to current marketdemand.
The Ministry of National Development said last November that HDB would step up its building programme and offer more new flats under the BTO exercises.
In total, about 4,500 new flats will be offered, mainly in the newer estates as such Punggol and Sengkang in the first half of 2008.
National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said on Sunday that property prices may be on the rise, but HDB flats still remain affordable for the average Singaporean.
US survey on Chinese economic clout disputed
By Qin Jize and Wang Zhenhua (China Daily)
2008-02-23
A recent Gallup survey comparing the economic might of China and the United States has drawn different reactions from people on the two sides of the Pacific Ocean.
The Gallup World Affairs Survey found that four out of 10 Americans saw China as the world economic leader, while only 33 percent picked the US.
Most respondents also said they believed China will likely be the world's top economy in two decades.
The same survey conducted in 2000 had 65 percent of Americans putting the US as the world's economic leader, while more than half of those polled thought the US would remain the world's top economic powerhouse for the following 20 years.
"I am afraid that public opinion in the US about the Chinese economy has been misled by the Western media," said Liu Liu, a civil servant in Guangzhou.
"It is well known that the economic gap between China and the United States remains huge."
Some analysts say the views of the general public can deviate from reality.
Huang Yiping, an economist at Citigroup, said China's rapid economic growth has fostered an illusion that it could overtake the US as the global economic leader.
"There used to be predictions in the 20th century that Germany, the former Soviet Union or Japan would overtake the US in terms of economic strength, but they all turned out to be wrong," Huang said.
The Gallup poll was conducted from February 11 to 14 and involved telephone interviews with 1,007 adults in the US, with a margin of error of around three percentage points.
The poll was conducted amid economic uncertainty in the US, shaken by turbulence in financial markets, a weak dollar and continuing worries over the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis.
China's economy, meanwhile, continues to enjoy record growth. The National Bureau of Statistics said last month that GDP growth for last year was 11.4 percent - the fastest in 13 years. It was the fifth year in a row in which growth topped 10 percent.
According to the latest statistics from the World Bank, the US was the world's biggest economy with a GDP of $13.2 trillion in 2006.
China, which had a GDP of close to $2.7 trillion, ranked fourth after Japan ($4.34 trillion) and Germany ($2.9 trillion).
China to issue 30b yuan certificate T-bonds
(Xinhua)
2008-02-23
China will issue 30 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) worth of "certificate treasury bonds" beginning March 1, the first such issue this year.
The T-bonds include 24 billion yuan worth of three-year bonds that carry a fixed annual interest rate of 5.74 percent, and six billion yuan worth of five-year bonds with a 6.34-percent interest rate, said the Ministry of Finance in a notice issued on Friday.
The purchasers must register their real names to buy the bonds, which can serve as security for loans, but cannot be transferred, said the ministry.
Interest on the bonds will be calculated from the day of purchase, and purchasers will receive the principal and interest when the certificate T-bonds fall due.
The public can buy the bonds from March 1 to 15 at the retailing outlets of 39 designated underwriting institutions, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, as well as some other commercial banks.
The next credit tidal wave
Credit default swaps (CDSs) are the latest financial instruments to be hit by market turmoil.
By Sean Farrell
22 February 2008
The rocketing cost of protecting corporate bonds has shone a light on another arcane corner of the financial world – the $45trn (£23trn) market for credit default swaps (CDS).
The cost of insuring the debt of US and European companies against default surged to all-time highs so that buyers of protection in the market were paying €126,500 (£95,500) a year to insure €10m of debt over five years.
The markets eased a little yesterday but Wednesday's surge to an all-time high was triggered by a panic that market experts are struggling to explain.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments linked to bonds and loans that are used to bet on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent if a borrower does not honour its debt. A rise in the cost of the instruments indicates greater fears about credit quality.
The troublesome part of the market is constant proportion debt obligations (CPDOs) – products that package indexes of credit-default swaps. The trouble is caused partly by fears about the corporate debt that underpins the products.
But "fundamentals" do not necessarily have to get worse to cause a widening of spreads – the difference in the cost of insuring a security compared with risk-free debt. Structured products have been set up with triggers to stop investors losing more than they put in, and it can take only a small fall in the value of the securities to hit these triggers which force the structured products to start to unwind.
This causes further nervousness so that spreads widen still more. A similar thing has happened to structured investment vehicles (SIVs), which are having to be bailed out by the banks that manage them.
What is going on in the CDS market is, analysts say, an example of the vicious cycles that have been a feature of the credit crunch. Analysts say structured products based on corporate debt may be tarred with the same brush as those backed by US sub-prime mortgages as investors flee the exotic debt instrumentse constructed in recent years.
Willem Sels, head of credit strategy at Dresdner Kleinwort, says: "Given that the market has seen a big fall over past weeks, losses in the derivatives and levered loan markets are so high that certain structured products hit contractual triggers where managers are forced to sell the portfolio. By doing so, they exacerbate the widening in the market, which in turn causes trigger levels with other investors to go off."
Some believe the market is "front-running" a jump in corporate debt default. The problems are made worse because the market has become illiquid.
"It is messy at the moment because people want to hedge their portfolios because they believe risk is imminent and few people want to go the other way," an analyst said.
CDOs package assets such as mortgage bonds and use the income from the debt to pay investors. CDOs made up of credit default swaps are known as synthetic because they do not contain the original bonds. Their value falls as the cost of credit-default swaps rises.
CPDOs are based on the US CDX and European iTraxx indices, which track the cost of default insurance. Some CPDOs are linked to banks and other financial institutions whose losses from the credit crunch have rocked investors' confidence.
"People are definitely concerned about counterparty failure and all the unknowns in the system. They are concerned about a major counterparty failure such as the monolines, a dealer or a big bank," one analyst said.
The problems in the CDS market are probably exacerbated by fear about the future of the monoline bond insurers whose credit ratings are under pressure. Investors are concerned that a monoline collapse could cause major damage to a big bank exposed to the securities they insure.
Critics of the market are emerging. John Moulton, managing partner of the private equity firm Alchemy Partners, said this week that he expected the CDS market to be the next blow-up in the credit crunch.
Bill Gross, managing director at PIMCO, the fixed-income manager, estimated that if total investment grade and junk bond defaults approached historical norms of 1.25 per cent in 2008 then $500bn of default contracts will be triggered, causing losses of at least $250bn for the parties who sold the protection.
"As capital gains and capital losses slosh from one side of the shadow system's boat to the other, casualties and shipwrecks are the inevitable consequence," said Mr Gross last month. "Goldman Sachs wins? Fine, but the losers in many cases will not be back for a return match."
Mr Sels said: "The ultimate risk is often held by investors without a very solid capital base and who use leverage, such as hedge funds. In fact, they are very often taking directional bets that are not really 'hedged'.
"Therefore, their capital can easily be wiped out or investors in the hedge fund can pull out their money, which will likely bring some of them under. They would not be the only ones to suffer though: banks would as well, as they are the counterparty on many of the derivatives transactions that hedge funds undertake."
My little lover - Hello Again ~ 昔からある場所 ~
いつも 君と 待ち続けた 季節は
何も言わず 通り過ぎた
雨はこの街に 降り注ぐ
少しの リグレットと罪を 包み込んで
泣かないことを 誓ったまま 時は過ぎ
痛む心に 気が付かずに 僕は一人になった
「記憶の中で ずっと二人は 生きて行ける」
君の声が 今も胸に響くよ それは愛が彷徨う影
君は少し泣いた？ あの時見えなかった
自分の限界が どこまでかを 知るために
僕は生きてる訳じゃない
だけど新しい扉を開け海に出れば
波の彼方にちゃんと”果て”をを感じられる
僕は この手伸ばして 空に進み 風を受けて
生きていこう どこかでまためぐるよ 遠い昔からある場所
夜の間でさえ 季節は変わっていく
雨は やがて あがっていた
「記憶の中で ずっと二人は 生きて行ける」
君の声が 今も胸に響くよ それは愛が彷徨う影
君は少し泣いた？ あの時見えなかった
Hello, again a feeling heart
Hello, again my old dear place
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