China Passes Canada, Becomes Top U.S. Import Source
Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- China passed Canada to become the largest source of products shipped into the U.S. last year, capping a six-year period when its exports to the U.S. more than tripled.
Led by items such as flat-panel televisions and computers, household appliances, toys and clothing, imports from China surged to $321.5 billion in 2007, according to a Commerce Department statement today. Chinese trade is accelerating faster than imports from Mexico after the North American Free Trade Agreement took effect in 1994.
China’s ascension may lead to a backlash in Congress, where lawmakers accuse China of undervaluing its currency, producing unsafe products and providing its industries with subsidies that allow them to undercut American-made goods.
"This is a surprise, and it will be a bit of a ding-dong for the Congress," said Gary Hufbauer, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Lawmakers are considering a variety of measures to encourage higher duties on Chinese imports to compensate for what they say is an undervalued Chinese currency. The record trade deficit announced today bolsters their efforts, they said.
“There is a more compelling case for our legislation than ever, given these new figures," said California Republican Representative Duncan Hunter, co-sponsor of a measure to allow companies to petition for duties on Chinese goods.
Yet, the burgeoning Chinese imports have benefited the U.S. by lowering prices and expanding choice, advocates say.
“Consumers are getting lower prices for a wider variety of goods," said former U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman.
Chinese Currency
A stronger Chinese currency would mean higher prices for Chinese goods in U.S. markets and could impede consumer spending -- which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy -- just as the U.S. tries to avoid a recession.
A more expensive yuan is “not a good thing for the U.S. -- it is only going to escalate inflation there," said Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP SA in Beijing.
It would be "silly" for Congress to legislate against China’s currency policies given the recent gyrations in financial markets, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told a Senate panel last week.
China has had the largest trade deficit with the U.S. since 2001, due largely to the relative low level of U.S. exports to the Asian trading giant. In 2007 it again hit a record, $256.3 billion.
Passes Mexico
China also passed Mexico last year to become the second- largest trading partner with the U.S. after Canada. As recently as 2002 Mexico sent more goods to the U.S. than China. Now, Chinese totals are 50 percent more than Mexican exports to the U.S. The rise of China doesn’t mean trade with Canada is falling: imports from Canada increased 3 percent last year, despite the rise in the Canadian dollar. Imports from China jumped 12 percent compared with 2006.
Chinese exports to the U.S. were rising steadily through the 1990s. They spiked after China entered the World Trade Organization in December 2001 and after global caps on apparel trade expired at the end of 2004.
Even the architect of China’s WTO entry is surprised by the speed of its ascent as an economic powerhouse.
"No one thought China’s re-emergence would be as robust, rapid or consistent as it has been," former U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky said in an interview. Barshefsky negotiated the U.S. side of China’s WTO accession agreement during the Clinton administration. “You will see China continue to rise, despite issues of product safety" and criticisms by lawmakers, she said.
Negotiator
When Portman took over as the Bush administration’s top trade negotiator in April 2005, he announced a "op-to-bottom" review of China’s trade policies and vowed to take a tougher stand against China at the WTO.
“China needs to play fairer, and we’ve had to beef up enforcement," he said.
Critics say that the Bush administration hasn’t done enough to get China to eliminate subsidies to its exporters, to make sure its products are safe for children and to raise the value of its exports. That’s why two Senate panels passed legislation last year aimed at pushing China to raise the value of its currency, which would make its exports more expensive.
Lawmakers say the pressure from industrial states, presidential election dynamics and the growing trade imbalance with China make it likely that Congress will approve legislation this year aimed at China.
“This is a major issue in a lot of districts across the country," said Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan, a primary co-sponsor of currency legislation. “The more we make the case, this will crank up the pressure on Congress to get something done."
Japanese local government admits domestic contamination of foods
TOKYO, Feb. 14 (Xinhua) -- A Japanese local government admitted on Thursday that pesticide detected recently on the surface of some Chinese-made dumplings packages are dichlorvos used in the store.
At a press conference, Tokushima Prefecture Governor Kamon Iizumi said dichlorvos was also detected on frozen food made in Japan and show cases at the store, but the amount was too small to injure people, Kyodo News reported.
The governor denied any relationship between the incident and the recent mysterious poisoning involving Chinese-made dumplings sold in Japan.
Analysts said the case in Tokushima indicated the possibility that food products may be contaminated during distribution and retail procedures in Japan.
The Japanese health ministry issued a notice in 2004, forbidding the placement of pesticide in room for foods.
When a guy sleeps around he is a stud, when a woman does the same she is a slut...
'Nicholas Tse & Cecilia Cheung To Divorce'
14 February 2008 Alex Au
Nicholas Tse (謝霆鋒) and Cecilia Cheung (張拍芝) have separated as a result of the sex photos scandal that has rocked Hong Kong showbiz, Ming Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper, reported today, citing rumours.
Patrick Tse (謝賢), father of Nicholas, refused to comment.
Reporters for the newspaper telephoned Deborah Li (狄波拉), Nicholas' mother, but could only get through to voicemail.
The newspaper quoted sources from the legal profession who said that, even though the couple married in the Philippines, the union and any divorce can be dealt with by Hong Kong jurisdiction because at least one of the couple is a Hong Kong citizen. The legal sources told the newspaper that after one year of separation the couple can file for divorce without citing any particular reason.
The couple married in September 2006. Last year, in an interview with Squat, batgwa.com's supplement pages, Nicholas said his marriage to Cecilia was "for life".
Cecilia was implicated by the sex photos scandal when images purportedly of her nude and engaged in sex acts with Edison Chen (陳冠希) started surfacing on the internet over two weeks ago. The photos were allegedly stolen from Edison's computer when it went in for repair.
Hong Kong newspapers have rumoured for days that Nicholas was angry and upset because some of the sex photos seem to have been taken just before the couple got married.
The house the couple shared was vacated two weeks ago and the couple have not been seen in public since the sex photos started leaking.
HOUSTON - FORMER United States Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the US economy is ‘clearly on the edge’ of a recession.
Mr Greenspan added the economy will continue to erode until there is a stabilisation of US housing prices.
‘We have a long way to go’ before housing prices hit a bottom, Mr Greenspan told energy executives at a conference.
‘Stagflation is too strong a term for what we are on the edge of,’ Mr Greenspan said.
High oil prices are dragging on the economy, but the fact that they haven’t done more damage shows it is resilient.
‘It’s a burden now,’ Mr Greenspan said. He added that it’s ‘quite remarkable’ that the US economy is ‘able to do reasonably well’ with oil prices near historic highs.
Crude oil futures hit above US$95 (S$135) a barrel on Thursday and went above US$100 in early January.
Mr Greenspan again - as he had last month - said that the likelihood of the US economy going into recession was ‘50 per cent or better’.
The subprime mortgage crisis would already have put the United States into recession if US businesses weren’t healthy in part as the result of years of low interest rates, Mr Greenspan said.
‘If businesses weren’t in extraordinarily good shape, I have no doubt we wouldn’t be asking if we’re in a recession, but how long and how deep,’ Mr Greenspan said.
‘Obviously, they (businesses) are not pushed for credit,’ he said.
Banks have cut back lending and will continue tight controls on borrowing until housing prices backed by subprime mortgages stabilise, he added.
Stagflation is a period when economic growth is stagnant but when prices rise. Recession is at least two quarters of negative economic growth. -- REUTERS
Soybeans Rise to Record on Expected China Demand; Wheat Gains
By Jae Hur
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Soybean and soybean oil futures in Chicago surged to a record on speculation demand from China will climb after winter storms damaged the nation's rapeseed crop.
China is the world's biggest importer of soybeans and vegetable oil. Almost half the autumn and winter rapeseed crop was affected by rain and snow, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said yesterday. Rapeseed, like soybeans, is crushed into meal for livestock feed and oil for cooking.
``The rapeseed crop damage by severe winter storms in China was a key factor to push up the market,'' said Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co.
Soybeans for May delivery rose as much as 12.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $13.98 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago exchange, and stood at $13.9525 at 11:23 a.m. in Singapore. Soybeans have surged in the past year after U.S. farmers planted the smallest soybean acreage in 12 years to sow the most corn since 1944.
Prices have also been supported by rain delaying harvesting in Brazil and concern that record high spring wheat prices may encourage U.S. farmers to plan more grain at the cost of soybean acreage, Shigemoto said.
Soybean oil for May delivery rose as much as 0.45 cent, or 0.8 percent, to 59.31 cents a pound in Chicago and last traded at 59.26 cents. Soybean and soybean oil futures in Dalian jumped to records today.
Wheat Gains
Futures for soft-red winter wheat traded in Chicago advanced for a second day as importers rushed for supplies. Prices for the spring crop in Minneapolis reached a record.
Wheat for May delivery in Chicago, the most-widely held contract, rose as much as 17 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $10.58 a bushel and stood at $10.4550 at 11:24 a.m. in Singapore. On Feb. 11, March wheat touched $11.53 a bushel, a record for the most active contract.
South Korea is seeking 23,300 metric tons of U.S. wheat today and Iraq indicated it may buy at least 50,000 tons from global stockpiles. These plans came a day after Japan bought 190,000 tons of wheat, including 115,000 tons from the U.S., and Egypt bought 235,000 tons, including 115,000 tons from the U.S.
Wheat for May delivery on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange gained as much as 4 percent to a record $15.8575 a bushel. The most-active contract has tripled in the past year after drought damaged last year's spring crop in the Northern Plains and Canada, leaving a shortage of the high-protein grain. The less-actively traded March contract reached $19.83 a bushel, the highest ever for any contract.
Corn for March delivery rose as much as 3.25 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $5.1425 a bushel and traded at $5.1275 at 11:24 a.m. in Singapore. Corn, which reached a record $5.2875 on Feb. 6, gained 22 percent in the past year on record demand to produce ethanol and feed livestock.
Notices and Updates Aggregate Reserves (H.3) This feed provides information about aggregate reserves data available from the Federal Reserve Board through the Data Download Program (DDP).
• February 08, 2008 Recent Declines in Nonborrowed Reserves
The H.3 statistical release indicates that nonborrowed reserves of depository institutions have declined substantially since mid-December to a level that is now negative. This development reflects the provision of a large volume of reserves through the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and has no adverse implications for the availability of reserves to the banking system.
By definition, nonborrowed reserves are equal to total reserves minus borrowed reserves. Borrowed reserves are equal to credit extended through the Federal Reserve's regular discount window programs as well as credit extended through the TAF. To maintain a level of total reserves consistent with the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate, increases in borrowed reserves must generally be met by a commensurate decrease in nonborrowed reserves, which is accomplished through a reduction in the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities and other assets. The negative level of nonborrowed reserves is an arithmetic result of the fact that TAF borrowings are larger than total reserves.
A fresh batch of data on Friday presented a bleak picture of the economy, with rising prices of imported goods, struggling manufacturing and an erosion in consumer confidence.
With the price of oil near record levels, import costs grew in January at the highest annual rate in a quarter century, the Labor Department said. In New York, manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in five years. And consumers, responding to a national survey, said they felt worse about the economy than any time since the recession era of the early 1990s.
“This is just horrible,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, the chief United States economist for High Frequency Economics, a research firm. “The sustained volatility in the markets, the rise in energy and food prices and, of course, the catastrophe in the housing market, is making consumers extraordinarily miserable.”
The price of imports rose 1.7 percent in January and was up 13.7 year over year, the highest annual rate since the Labor Department records began in 1983. Fuel costs led the rise, ballooning by 5.5 percent last month. Imported food and beverages also cost more in January, and the price of Chinese goods ticked up by 0.8 percent. Export prices rose 1.2 percent, and American companies are also charging more for food, industrial supplies, and agricultural products.
Sales of imports are lagging even as export sales surge. The trade deficit narrowed in 2007 for the first time in five years, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.
Manufacturers’ woes were reflected in the Empire State Manufacturing survey, a measure of business conditions in New York State. The index fell in February to -11.7, its lowest reading since April 2003 and the first negative reading in three years. A sharp drop in orders and payrolls led the decline, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Meanwhile, a closely watched measure of consumer confidence, the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, fell to 69.6 in February, the lowest reading since February 1992. It had stood at 78.4 in January.
Consumers are likely cowed by a softening labor market — the Labor Department said employers cut 17,000 jobs last month — and rising inflation, which is forcing Americans to cut back on spending.
There was a sliver of good news for the economy. The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production grew 0.1 percent last month, keeping pace with December. Cold weather pushed up activity at electric and natural gas utilities, which offset a decline in output at auto manufacturers.
Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, held steady in January at 81.5 percent.
Manufacturers have benefited from a sharp rise in export sales, as foreign customers take advantage of the cheap American dollar. But analysts see headwinds ahead.
“An increasingly constrained consumer, deepening woes for the housing sector, and no desire to build inventories will all weigh on manufacturing output, which we expect to remain weak for some time,” wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, a research firm.
RBS has been upbeat about its exposure to subprime losses so far. But new problems may be exposed when it reports earnings.
By Bethany McLean 15 February 2008
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Could Royal Bank of Scotland be the new AIG? AIG, of course, which was once sanguine about its exposure to securities backed by subprime mortgages, just confessed to a far bigger problem than it had previously admitted, and acknowledged that its internal valuation models were being questioned by its auditors. Royal Bank of Scotland, or RBS, has also been upbeat.
Last December RBS took a GBP 950 million, or roughly $1.9 billion, writedown on its mortgage holdings, which was less than the market was expecting, and said that it expected to produce an operating profit and earnings per share "well ahead of market consensus." RBS is also in the process of building a giant trading floor in Stamford, which is nothing if not an expression of confidence in the market.
But skeptics are predicting more problems when RBS (RBS) announces its results on February 28. On February 11, Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Helsby noted in a report that "it is now widely expected that RBS will announce further material write-downs." He also predicted that the bank would seek to raise money. RBS's stock, which soared some 15% through October, has since fallen more than 30% to $7.29. It trades at just over 5 times 2007's consensus earnings estimate. A Royal Bank of Scotland spokeswoman says that the bank "has absolutely nothing to say at this stage. We outlined our position clearly [in December], and we will update the market when we announce our results on February 28."
But there's good reason to worry, and to look for trouble both in an obvious spot - and a not-so-obvious spot.
RBS, which was founded all the way back in 1727, has grown, under the leadership of CEO Sir Fred Goodwin, from a medium sized operator into a global giant via a chain of daring acquisitions. Today, it is one of the ten largest banks in the United States thanks to its purchases of Citizens Bank of Rhode Island and, more recently, its 2004 $10.5 billion all-cash purchase of Cleveland-based Charter One. Most recently, of course, RBS was in the headlines over its battle to buy Dutch bank ABN Amro. RBS, along with partners Santander and Fortis, are currently in the process of carving up the spoils.
The first, and pretty obvious, problem is the exposure RBS has to super senior tranches of CDOs containing mortgage collateral via its Global Banking & Markets division. In December, when the bank announced its smallish (in the context of things) writedown, it also outlined that exposure. RBS said that net of hedges and writedowns, it had GBP 1.1 billion (or roughly $2.2 billion) of high grade CDOs containing commercial loan collateral, prime and subprime mortgage collateral, as well as GBP 1.3 billion (or roughly $2.6 billion) of exposure to "mezzanine CDOs based predominantly on residential mortgage collateral." RBS marked the high grade CDOs at 90% of face value, and the mezzanine CDOs at 70% of face value, citing "outputs from our proprietary model, market data, and prudent valuation adjustments."
Only RBS knows exactly what securities it owns, and the market price can vary dramatically. But a source on a Wall Street trading desk (who is not commenting on RBS specifically), says that in general, the high-grade CDOs are worth between 35 cents on the dollar and 75 cents on the dollar, and the mezzanine CDOs are worth between 10 cents to 50 cents on the dollar. That would imply substantial addition writedowns for RBS.
What no one is talking about, though, is the exposure RBS has to the U.S. mortgage market via RBS Citizens, through which RBS conducts the majority of its U.S. banking operations. According to data from the FDIC, as of September 30, RBS's U.S. operations had $45 billion worth of 1-4 family residential mortgages. Of that, $25 billion is secured by first liens. Another $11 billion is secured by junior liens. A significant chunk of that exposure comes from Charter One - which had a sizable subprime lending operation. Last fall, Charter One, like other banks, announced that it would stop buying mortgages from wholesale brokers.
Overall, it is impossible to know how much of Citizen's portfolio consists of subprime mortgages, but based on comments made by Lawrence K. Fish, the former CEO of Citizens Financial, it could be sizable. In a December editorial in the Washington Post, Fish wrote that the "number of homeowners in low and moderate income communities grew by 26.6 percent in the 1990s, nearly twice as fast as the number of homeowners in high income areas," and said, "Citizens Financial group has built a highly successful business around these emerging markets." Maybe this is good social policy - but it may not turn out to have been good financial policy.
While the $25 billion in first liens may be fine, the Wall Street source (who again is not commenting on RBS specifically) says that junior liens - even those that are prime - are, in general trading for between 40 cents to 80 cents on the dollar, and that home equity lines are going for between 35 cents to 70 cents on the dollar. That would imply more billions in writedowns for RBS.
*****
On a separate note, RBS could also have a problem with its leveraged lending book. According to a Lehman report last fall, RBS was the number two provider of European leveraged loans. Back in December, it announced a GBP 250 million (roughly $500 million) writedown, but did not detail the size of its portfolio. As recently as last summer, the bank's attitude seemed to be full steam ahead: Said CEO Goodwin in a June article, "There are no clouds on the horizon."
Good did add, though, "I'm touching wood as I say that." He may want to find a forest.
12 comments:
China Passes Canada, Becomes Top U.S. Import Source
Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- China passed Canada to become the largest source of products shipped into the U.S. last year, capping a six-year period when its exports to the U.S. more than tripled.
Led by items such as flat-panel televisions and computers, household appliances, toys and clothing, imports from China surged to $321.5 billion in 2007, according to a Commerce Department statement today. Chinese trade is accelerating faster than imports from Mexico after the North American Free Trade Agreement took effect in 1994.
China’s ascension may lead to a backlash in Congress, where lawmakers accuse China of undervaluing its currency, producing unsafe products and providing its industries with subsidies that allow them to undercut American-made goods.
"This is a surprise, and it will be a bit of a ding-dong for the Congress," said Gary Hufbauer, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
Lawmakers are considering a variety of measures to encourage higher duties on Chinese imports to compensate for what they say is an undervalued Chinese currency. The record trade deficit announced today bolsters their efforts, they said.
“There is a more compelling case for our legislation than ever, given these new figures," said California Republican Representative Duncan Hunter, co-sponsor of a measure to allow companies to petition for duties on Chinese goods.
Yet, the burgeoning Chinese imports have benefited the U.S. by lowering prices and expanding choice, advocates say.
“Consumers are getting lower prices for a wider variety of goods," said former U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman.
Chinese Currency
A stronger Chinese currency would mean higher prices for Chinese goods in U.S. markets and could impede consumer spending -- which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy -- just as the U.S. tries to avoid a recession.
A more expensive yuan is “not a good thing for the U.S. -- it is only going to escalate inflation there," said Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP SA in Beijing.
It would be "silly" for Congress to legislate against China’s currency policies given the recent gyrations in financial markets, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told a Senate panel last week.
China has had the largest trade deficit with the U.S. since 2001, due largely to the relative low level of U.S. exports to the Asian trading giant. In 2007 it again hit a record, $256.3 billion.
Passes Mexico
China also passed Mexico last year to become the second- largest trading partner with the U.S. after Canada. As recently as 2002 Mexico sent more goods to the U.S. than China. Now, Chinese totals are 50 percent more than Mexican exports to the U.S. The rise of China doesn’t mean trade with Canada is falling: imports from Canada increased 3 percent last year, despite the rise in the Canadian dollar. Imports from China jumped 12 percent compared with 2006.
Chinese exports to the U.S. were rising steadily through the 1990s. They spiked after China entered the World Trade Organization in December 2001 and after global caps on apparel trade expired at the end of 2004.
Even the architect of China’s WTO entry is surprised by the speed of its ascent as an economic powerhouse.
"No one thought China’s re-emergence would be as robust, rapid or consistent as it has been," former U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky said in an interview. Barshefsky negotiated the U.S. side of China’s WTO accession agreement during the Clinton administration. “You will see China continue to rise, despite issues of product safety" and criticisms by lawmakers, she said.
Negotiator
When Portman took over as the Bush administration’s top trade negotiator in April 2005, he announced a "op-to-bottom" review of China’s trade policies and vowed to take a tougher stand against China at the WTO.
“China needs to play fairer, and we’ve had to beef up enforcement," he said.
Critics say that the Bush administration hasn’t done enough to get China to eliminate subsidies to its exporters, to make sure its products are safe for children and to raise the value of its exports. That’s why two Senate panels passed legislation last year aimed at pushing China to raise the value of its currency, which would make its exports more expensive.
Lawmakers say the pressure from industrial states, presidential election dynamics and the growing trade imbalance with China make it likely that Congress will approve legislation this year aimed at China.
“This is a major issue in a lot of districts across the country," said Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan, a primary co-sponsor of currency legislation. “The more we make the case, this will crank up the pressure on Congress to get something done."
Japanese local government admits domestic contamination of foods
TOKYO, Feb. 14 (Xinhua) -- A Japanese local government admitted on Thursday that pesticide detected recently on the surface of some Chinese-made dumplings packages are dichlorvos used in the store.
At a press conference, Tokushima Prefecture Governor Kamon Iizumi said dichlorvos was also detected on frozen food made in Japan and show cases at the store, but the amount was too small to injure people, Kyodo News reported.
The governor denied any relationship between the incident and the recent mysterious poisoning involving Chinese-made dumplings sold in Japan.
Analysts said the case in Tokushima indicated the possibility that food products may be contaminated during distribution and retail procedures in Japan.
The Japanese health ministry issued a notice in 2004, forbidding the placement of pesticide in room for foods.
Fifth of Britons buy fake goods
A fifth of Britons have bought counterfeit goods, a survey conducted for the BBC's Money Programme suggests.
Over a third of those people said they had bought pirated DVDs, while 24% said they had bought fake fashion goods such as handbags or sunglasses.
Almost a third said they had picked up the goods from a market stall, while 19% said they had bought them overseas.
Counterfeit goods cost UK business £11bn a year, according to the Anti-Counterfeiting Group.
While the majority of the people surveyed (61%) said they believed buying fakes was theft, 10% saw nothing wrong with buying counterfeit goods.
A further 21% said they knew it was wrong and probably theft but they would still buy a counterfeit.
The survey was conducted by Ipsos Mori in late November and early December.
Of 991 adults surveyed, 19% said they had either bought or suspected they had paid for a counterfeit good.
中股反弹恐为假象 技术分析暗示其将进一步下滑
路透上海2月13日电(记者陶志安)---中国股市已经自本月稍早触及的六个月低位反弹，令人寄望于其可能已经触底。但技术分析显示，市场可能还有很大的下跌空间，或许进一步下跌20%甚至更多。
以近几十年来两次股市崩盘--美国科技股泡沫破灭和日本股市狂跌--的技术图表为鉴，中国可能只是刚刚开始长期下跌趋势，或许还会持续很多个月。
当然中国在一些方面确实是独具特色的，譬如政府救市的意愿。以上周为例，政府批准了新的股票型基金，并推迟一宗大型首次公开发行（IPO）案，以改善市场的供需平衡状况。
但美国和日本市场当时也是认为可免长期下跌的，当时美国科技荣景催生关于“新经济”的说法，而日本的地产价格大涨令该国一些公司的市值在全球居前列。
但最终这两个市场均从高点挫跌，并且跌势持续了两年多。
上证综指去年10月创下纪录高位6,124点，较2005年6月水准暴涨了五倍多。该指数春节长假後周三恢复交易，当日收报4,490.721点,跌108.97点,或2.37%.
在春节长假前不久的2月4日，该指数暴涨了8.1%，令许多中国券商技术分析师寄望市场开始反弹。但也有人认为这不会长久。
海通证券分析师吴一萍在报告中表示：“假期过後，人们可能不得不改变节前的乐观情绪。还是必须对中期趋势保持谨慎。”
技术指标
正象很多分析师指出的那样，沪综指2月4日从仅略高于费波纳奇首道支撑位4,165点的水准反弹，该支撑位为其牛市走势的38.2%回调位。
根据费波纳奇理论，这麽大幅的回调常常表示市场较长期涨势尚未结束。
沪综指迅速反弹至许多分析师视作关键支撑的250日均线上方，亦是个正面讯号。
但许多其他指标则表明长期升势可能已经结束。1月底时，沪综指跌破了2006年来的上涨趋势线切入位4,800点。
并且还形成了头肩顶型态，这种型态往往是上涨趋势结束的经典讯号。
平滑异同移动平均(MACD)接近跌破九个月移动平均，为2004年8月以来首见，往往在这种情况下市场容易会有七至九个月的下滑。
该指数自去年10月高位已形成下跌趋势线，暗示市场就算反弹，也只是在长期下跌通道中的自底部反弹，而非展开长期涨势。
以他国为鉴
美国和日本股市都曾经历过这样的虚幻荣景。美股Nasdaq综合股价指数在2000年3月时创下纪录高位5,132点，较1996年7月水准大涨逾四倍，但两个月後即大跌41%至3,042的低位。
该低位几乎是Nasdaq指数牛市走势的50%回调位，为第二道费波纳奇支撑位。而该指数在回升三个月後，再度走低，到2002年10月时触底，较高位已大幅下滑了78%。
而日股日经指数在1982年10月至1989年12月筑顶，共攀升了逾450%，而之後短短四个月下滑了30%。
日经指数守住了费波纳奇首道支撑位，之後一个月反弹，但随後恢复跌势，到1992年8月已经自历史高位重挫了64%。
目标位
在日本和美国科技股牛市结束，起初自费波纳奇支撑位展开反弹後，市场就进一步下滑并创新低。上海股市或许也是这样，要记得其在牛市中的上涨速度甚至更快。
海通证券的吴指出，近期技术性反弹中沪综指可能涨至接近4,900点。但其补充道，现在还不清楚该指数中期能否保持在250日均线上方，目前均线切入位在4,415点。
银河证券在报告中表示，费波纳奇首道支撑位4,165可能不够稳固，指数料进一步下滑，不能排除跌破4,000点的可能性。
如果真是这样，那麽合理的下档目标位也许在第二道费波纳奇支撑位3,561，即较当前水准下滑约20%。而从头肩顶型态判断，另一合理目标位也许在3,250点。
许多基金经理认为市场不会跌得那麽惨，因经济仍欣欣向荣，且企业活力增长尽管放慢但仍堪称强劲。此外，政府也很可能再次干预市场。
但倘若政府救市，那麽也会阻碍市场筑底，而往往筑底後市场才能展开较长期反弹。这意味着中国可能无法重现Nasdaq指数在2002年後的反弹，反而可能象日经指数那样数年停滞不前。
沪综指在去年11-12月低位4,778-4,812区域有强劲技术阻力，上月底曾试探未果。技术面来看,只有在指数突破下跌趋势线切入位(目前在5,370点,且每周下滑45点)的情况下,谈及长期涨势才有意义。
国 际 视 野 : 日 本 没 有 减 息 条 件
王 冠 一
15/2/2008
日 本 第 4 季 GDP 录 得 0.9% 增 长 , 使 按 年 经 济 增 长 上 升 至 3.7% , 数 字 令 不 少 分 析 员 大 跌 眼 镜 , 皆 因 早 前 不 甚 理 想 的 数 据 , 诱 发 日 本 经 济 或 跟 随 美 国 , 有 迈 向 衰 退 之 虞 的 推 测 。
笔 者 不 是 相 反 理 论 主 义 者 , 亦 从 来 不 人 云 亦 云 , 故 读 者 们 并 没 有 看 过 近 日 对 日 本 经 济 看 扁 的 文 章 , 原 因 是 经 过 10 多 年 的 内 部 调 整 , 最 差 的 时 间 相 信 已 过 去 , 若 稍 有 一 点 刺 激 , 经 济 不 难 见 起 色 , 这 点 从 GDP 增 长 细 节 中 可 见 到 点 端 倪 。
通 胀 升 人 民 愁
由 於 新 兴 市 场 如 俄 罗 斯 及 中 东 等 产 油 国 , 以 至 部 份 亚 洲 国 家 需 求 有 所 增 加 , 令 日 本 出 口 在 第 4 季 录 得 2.9% 增 长 , 若 按 净 出 口 ( 出 口 减 进 口 ) 计 , 则 为 GDP 带 来 0.4% 之 贡 献 。岂 料 却 弹 出 个 增 2.9% , 光 是 呢 瓣 , 已 为 上 季 GDP 作 出 约 一 半 的 增 长 贡 献 。
占 GDP 比 重 最 大 的 个 人 及 家 庭 消 费 开 支 又 如 何 ? 原 来 只 有 0.2% 的 增 长 , 比 市 场 预 期 的 0.3% 为 低 。其 实 这 又 何 奇 之 有 ? 在 工 资 增 长 呆 滞 不 前 , 通 胀 又 冉 冉 上 升 的 环 境 下 , 人 民 又 怎 能 不 勒 紧 裤 头 ? 这 从 早 前 一 项 调 查 , 指 家 庭 情 绪 指 数 跌 至 4 年 多 低 位 已 有 示 。
日 股 一 洗 颓 风
日 本 经 济 增 长 超 美 ( 第 4 季 得 0.6% 增 长 ) 也 超 欧( 估 计 只 有 0.3% 增 长 ) , 实 在 可 喜 可 贺 , 至 低 限 度 这 全 球 第 2 大 经 济 体 系 陷 衰 退 之 说 已 一 扫 而 空 。日 经 昨 日 狂 升 558 点 或 4.27% 赠 兴 , 一 洗 日 前 之 颓 风 。 然 有 一 点 较 奇 怪 的 是 , 日 圆 在 强 劲 的 GDP 增 长 数 据 , 加 上 早 前 公 布 的 核 心 消 费 物 价 指 数 ( CPI ) 弹 升 0.8% , 竟 然 出 现 背 驰 走 势 不 升 反 跌 , 是 市 投 资 者 真 的 相 信 接 替 将 退 任 「 鹰 」行 长 ( 福 井 屡 说 加 息 ) 之 新 人 会 减 息 乎 ?
曾渊沧：大户开始寻找猎物
2008年02月15日
美 股 前 晚 造 好 ， 所 公 布 的 零 售 销 售 数 据 比 预 期 好 得 多 ， 布 殊 总 统 也 正 式 签 署 1680 亿 美 元 的 刺 激 经 济 方 案 ， 道 琼 斯 指 数 上 升 178 点 ， 很 自 然 ， 昨 日 亚 太 股 市 也 全 面 回 升 。 指 总 算 在 24000 点 之 上 收 市 ， 升 852 点 ， 一 洗 春 节 后 红 盘 低 收 的 霉 运 。
春 节 后 第 一 个 交 易 日 ， 指 直 泻 而 下 ， 我 心 中 感 觉 到 这 是 没 有 任 何 实 质 理 由 支 持 的 跌 势 。 很 明 显 只 是 一 种 心 理 恐 慌 所 带 来 的 拋 售 ， 心 中 有 股 冲 动 想 入 市 ， 很 可 惜 ， 最 后 我 自 己 对 自 己 的 信 心 依 然 不 够 ， 到 收 市 时 ， 仍 只 是 一 名 旁 观 者 。
股 市 一 连 3 天 的 回 升 ， 是 不 是 在 累 积 动 力 、 创 造 一 个 像 样 的 大 反 弹 ？ 股 市 在 熊 市 中 也 不 会 不 断 的 跌 ， 每 一 个 大 熊 市 都 有 至 少 一 个 相 当 规 模 的 大 反 弹 ， 现 在 ， 股 神 毕 菲 特 开 始 入 市 寻 找 猎 物 ， 电 盈 （ 008 ） 全 面 收 购 盈 大 地 产 （ 432 ） ， 出 价 比 前 日 收 市 价 高 25% ， 出 手 阔 绰 ， 这 说 明 盈 大 地 产 的 股 价 已 经 严 重 偏 低 ， 这 才 能 吸 引 电 盈 付 25% 的 溢 价 收 购 。
毕 菲 特 与 电 盈 的 出 手 ， 说 明 了 目 前 股 市 的 确 存 在 不 少 便 宜 货 ， 紧 接 下 来 上 市 企 业 公 布 业 绩 ， 业 绩 好 的 企 业 就 更 加 凸 显 其 股 价 廉 宜 的 吸 引 力 ， 这 可 以 协 助 改 善 股 民 的 信 心 。 股 价 高 、 股 价 低 ， 最 后 决 定 的 是 股 民 的 信 心 ， 是 股 民 对 后 市 的 信 心 ， 信 心 加 强 ， 股 价 就 会 抢 高 。
便 宜 货 满 街
希 望 我 猜 得 对 ， 如 果 这 一 轮 升 浪 的 确 是 一 个 比 较 显 着 的 反 弹 浪 ， 大 家 就 千 万 不 好 急 趁 反 弹 减 持 ， 宁 可 再 持 股 多 一 阵 子 ， 看 看 反 弹 浪 可 不 可 以 再 扩 大 。 现 金 太 多 而 找 不 到 投 资 、 投 机 去 处 的 人 ， 也 可 以 考 虑 追 货 ， 希 望 能 够 再 多 赚 10% 至 15% 。
何 只 毕 菲 特 想 入 市 ， 新 加 坡 政 府 也 想 入 市 ， 日 前 新 加 坡 报 章 报 道 ， 新 加 坡 内 阁 资 政 李 光 耀 在 春 节 献 词 时 大 谈 股 票 投 资 ， 他 说 新 加 坡 政 府 没 有 在 去 年 股 市 狂 热 时 盲 目 入 市 抢 购 股 票 ， 相 反 的 ， 卖 掉 了 一 些 股 套 现 ， 现 在 手 上 有 很 多 现 金 在 寻 找 投 资 机 会 。
差 不 多 是 同 一 个 时 候 ， 外 电 报 道 说 ， 新 加 坡 政 府 的 投 资 机 构 淡 马 锡 想 再 增 持 渣 打 银 行 （ 2888 ） 股 份 ， 目 前 ， 淡 马 锡 已 经 持 有 渣 打 银 行 股 份 很 接 近 20% 。 不 久 前 ， 香 港 金 融 管 理 局 总 裁 任 志 刚 公 开 说 不 允 许 外 国 政 府 持 有 发 钞 银 行 超 过 20% 的 股 权 ， 如 果 淡 马 锡 真 的 挑 战 任 志 刚 ， 再 增 持 渣 打 银 行 股 权 ， 任 总 是 不 是 真 的 会 下 令 渣 打 银 行 收 回 所 有 已 发 行 的 钞 票 ？ 如 何 收 回 ？
When a guy sleeps around he is a stud, when a woman does the same she is a slut...
'Nicholas Tse & Cecilia Cheung To Divorce'
14 February 2008
Alex Au
Nicholas Tse (謝霆鋒) and Cecilia Cheung (張拍芝) have separated as a result of the sex photos scandal that has rocked Hong Kong showbiz, Ming Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper, reported today, citing rumours.
Patrick Tse (謝賢), father of Nicholas, refused to comment.
Reporters for the newspaper telephoned Deborah Li (狄波拉), Nicholas' mother, but could only get through to voicemail.
The newspaper quoted sources from the legal profession who said that, even though the couple married in the Philippines, the union and any divorce can be dealt with by Hong Kong jurisdiction because at least one of the couple is a Hong Kong citizen. The legal sources told the newspaper that after one year of separation the couple can file for divorce without citing any particular reason.
The couple married in September 2006. Last year, in an interview with Squat, batgwa.com's supplement pages, Nicholas said his marriage to Cecilia was "for life".
Cecilia was implicated by the sex photos scandal when images purportedly of her nude and engaged in sex acts with Edison Chen (陳冠希) started surfacing on the internet over two weeks ago. The photos were allegedly stolen from Edison's computer when it went in for repair.
Hong Kong newspapers have rumoured for days that Nicholas was angry and upset because some of the sex photos seem to have been taken just before the couple got married.
The house the couple shared was vacated two weeks ago and the couple have not been seen in public since the sex photos started leaking.
US ‘on the edge’ of recession: Greenspan
HOUSTON - FORMER United States Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the US economy is ‘clearly on the edge’ of a recession.
Mr Greenspan added the economy will continue to erode until there is a stabilisation of US housing prices.
‘We have a long way to go’ before housing prices hit a bottom, Mr Greenspan told energy executives at a conference.
‘Stagflation is too strong a term for what we are on the edge of,’ Mr Greenspan said.
High oil prices are dragging on the economy, but the fact that they haven’t done more damage shows it is resilient.
‘It’s a burden now,’ Mr Greenspan said. He added that it’s ‘quite remarkable’ that the US economy is ‘able to do reasonably well’ with oil prices near historic highs.
Crude oil futures hit above US$95 (S$135) a barrel on Thursday and went above US$100 in early January.
Mr Greenspan again - as he had last month - said that the likelihood of the US economy going into recession was ‘50 per cent or better’.
The subprime mortgage crisis would already have put the United States into recession if US businesses weren’t healthy in part as the result of years of low interest rates, Mr Greenspan said.
‘If businesses weren’t in extraordinarily good shape, I have no doubt we wouldn’t be asking if we’re in a recession, but how long and how deep,’ Mr Greenspan said.
‘Obviously, they (businesses) are not pushed for credit,’ he said.
Banks have cut back lending and will continue tight controls on borrowing until housing prices backed by subprime mortgages stabilise, he added.
Stagflation is a period when economic growth is stagnant but when prices rise. Recession is at least two quarters of negative economic growth. -- REUTERS
Soybeans Rise to Record on Expected China Demand; Wheat Gains
By Jae Hur
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Soybean and soybean oil futures in Chicago surged to a record on speculation demand from China will climb after winter storms damaged the nation's rapeseed crop.
China is the world's biggest importer of soybeans and vegetable oil. Almost half the autumn and winter rapeseed crop was affected by rain and snow, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said yesterday. Rapeseed, like soybeans, is crushed into meal for livestock feed and oil for cooking.
``The rapeseed crop damage by severe winter storms in China was a key factor to push up the market,'' said Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co.
Soybeans for May delivery rose as much as 12.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $13.98 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago exchange, and stood at $13.9525 at 11:23 a.m. in Singapore. Soybeans have surged in the past year after U.S. farmers planted the smallest soybean acreage in 12 years to sow the most corn since 1944.
Prices have also been supported by rain delaying harvesting in Brazil and concern that record high spring wheat prices may encourage U.S. farmers to plan more grain at the cost of soybean acreage, Shigemoto said.
Soybean oil for May delivery rose as much as 0.45 cent, or 0.8 percent, to 59.31 cents a pound in Chicago and last traded at 59.26 cents. Soybean and soybean oil futures in Dalian jumped to records today.
Wheat Gains
Futures for soft-red winter wheat traded in Chicago advanced for a second day as importers rushed for supplies. Prices for the spring crop in Minneapolis reached a record.
Wheat for May delivery in Chicago, the most-widely held contract, rose as much as 17 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $10.58 a bushel and stood at $10.4550 at 11:24 a.m. in Singapore. On Feb. 11, March wheat touched $11.53 a bushel, a record for the most active contract.
South Korea is seeking 23,300 metric tons of U.S. wheat today and Iraq indicated it may buy at least 50,000 tons from global stockpiles. These plans came a day after Japan bought 190,000 tons of wheat, including 115,000 tons from the U.S., and Egypt bought 235,000 tons, including 115,000 tons from the U.S.
Wheat for May delivery on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange gained as much as 4 percent to a record $15.8575 a bushel. The most-active contract has tripled in the past year after drought damaged last year's spring crop in the Northern Plains and Canada, leaving a shortage of the high-protein grain. The less-actively traded March contract reached $19.83 a bushel, the highest ever for any contract.
Corn for March delivery rose as much as 3.25 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $5.1425 a bushel and traded at $5.1275 at 11:24 a.m. in Singapore. Corn, which reached a record $5.2875 on Feb. 6, gained 22 percent in the past year on record demand to produce ethanol and feed livestock.
The Federal Reserve Board
Notices and Updates
Aggregate Reserves (H.3)
This feed provides information about aggregate reserves data available from the Federal Reserve Board through the Data Download Program (DDP).
• February 08, 2008
Recent Declines in Nonborrowed Reserves
The H.3 statistical release indicates that nonborrowed reserves of depository institutions have declined substantially since mid-December to a level that is now negative. This development reflects the provision of a large volume of reserves through the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and has no adverse implications for the availability of reserves to the banking system.
By definition, nonborrowed reserves are equal to total reserves minus borrowed reserves. Borrowed reserves are equal to credit extended through the Federal Reserve's regular discount window programs as well as credit extended through the TAF. To maintain a level of total reserves consistent with the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate, increases in borrowed reserves must generally be met by a commensurate decrease in nonborrowed reserves, which is accomplished through a reduction in the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities and other assets. The negative level of nonborrowed reserves is an arithmetic result of the fact that TAF borrowings are larger than total reserves.
Bleak New Batch of Data on Economy
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
February 15, 2008
A fresh batch of data on Friday presented a bleak picture of the economy, with rising prices of imported goods, struggling manufacturing and an erosion in consumer confidence.
With the price of oil near record levels, import costs grew in January at the highest annual rate in a quarter century, the Labor Department said. In New York, manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in five years. And consumers, responding to a national survey, said they felt worse about the economy than any time since the recession era of the early 1990s.
“This is just horrible,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, the chief United States economist for High Frequency Economics, a research firm. “The sustained volatility in the markets, the rise in energy and food prices and, of course, the catastrophe in the housing market, is making consumers extraordinarily miserable.”
The price of imports rose 1.7 percent in January and was up 13.7 year over year, the highest annual rate since the Labor Department records began in 1983. Fuel costs led the rise, ballooning by 5.5 percent last month. Imported food and beverages also cost more in January, and the price of Chinese goods ticked up by 0.8 percent. Export prices rose 1.2 percent, and American companies are also charging more for food, industrial supplies, and agricultural products.
Sales of imports are lagging even as export sales surge. The trade deficit narrowed in 2007 for the first time in five years, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.
Manufacturers’ woes were reflected in the Empire State Manufacturing survey, a measure of business conditions in New York State. The index fell in February to -11.7, its lowest reading since April 2003 and the first negative reading in three years. A sharp drop in orders and payrolls led the decline, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Meanwhile, a closely watched measure of consumer confidence, the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, fell to 69.6 in February, the lowest reading since February 1992. It had stood at 78.4 in January.
Consumers are likely cowed by a softening labor market — the Labor Department said employers cut 17,000 jobs last month — and rising inflation, which is forcing Americans to cut back on spending.
There was a sliver of good news for the economy. The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production grew 0.1 percent last month, keeping pace with December. Cold weather pushed up activity at electric and natural gas utilities, which offset a decline in output at auto manufacturers.
Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, held steady in January at 81.5 percent.
Manufacturers have benefited from a sharp rise in export sales, as foreign customers take advantage of the cheap American dollar. But analysts see headwinds ahead.
“An increasingly constrained consumer, deepening woes for the housing sector, and no desire to build inventories will all weigh on manufacturing output, which we expect to remain weak for some time,” wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR, a research firm.
Losses stalk Royal Bank of Scotland
RBS has been upbeat about its exposure to subprime losses so far. But new problems may be exposed when it reports earnings.
By Bethany McLean
15 February 2008
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Could Royal Bank of Scotland be the new AIG? AIG, of course, which was once sanguine about its exposure to securities backed by subprime mortgages, just confessed to a far bigger problem than it had previously admitted, and acknowledged that its internal valuation models were being questioned by its auditors. Royal Bank of Scotland, or RBS, has also been upbeat.
Last December RBS took a GBP 950 million, or roughly $1.9 billion, writedown on its mortgage holdings, which was less than the market was expecting, and said that it expected to produce an operating profit and earnings per share "well ahead of market consensus." RBS is also in the process of building a giant trading floor in Stamford, which is nothing if not an expression of confidence in the market.
But skeptics are predicting more problems when RBS (RBS) announces its results on February 28. On February 11, Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Helsby noted in a report that "it is now widely expected that RBS will announce further material write-downs." He also predicted that the bank would seek to raise money. RBS's stock, which soared some 15% through October, has since fallen more than 30% to $7.29. It trades at just over 5 times 2007's consensus earnings estimate. A Royal Bank of Scotland spokeswoman says that the bank "has absolutely nothing to say at this stage. We outlined our position clearly [in December], and we will update the market when we announce our results on February 28."
But there's good reason to worry, and to look for trouble both in an obvious spot - and a not-so-obvious spot.
RBS, which was founded all the way back in 1727, has grown, under the leadership of CEO Sir Fred Goodwin, from a medium sized operator into a global giant via a chain of daring acquisitions. Today, it is one of the ten largest banks in the United States thanks to its purchases of Citizens Bank of Rhode Island and, more recently, its 2004 $10.5 billion all-cash purchase of Cleveland-based Charter One. Most recently, of course, RBS was in the headlines over its battle to buy Dutch bank ABN Amro. RBS, along with partners Santander and Fortis, are currently in the process of carving up the spoils.
The first, and pretty obvious, problem is the exposure RBS has to super senior tranches of CDOs containing mortgage collateral via its Global Banking & Markets division. In December, when the bank announced its smallish (in the context of things) writedown, it also outlined that exposure. RBS said that net of hedges and writedowns, it had GBP 1.1 billion (or roughly $2.2 billion) of high grade CDOs containing commercial loan collateral, prime and subprime mortgage collateral, as well as GBP 1.3 billion (or roughly $2.6 billion) of exposure to "mezzanine CDOs based predominantly on residential mortgage collateral." RBS marked the high grade CDOs at 90% of face value, and the mezzanine CDOs at 70% of face value, citing "outputs from our proprietary model, market data, and prudent valuation adjustments."
Only RBS knows exactly what securities it owns, and the market price can vary dramatically. But a source on a Wall Street trading desk (who is not commenting on RBS specifically), says that in general, the high-grade CDOs are worth between 35 cents on the dollar and 75 cents on the dollar, and the mezzanine CDOs are worth between 10 cents to 50 cents on the dollar. That would imply substantial addition writedowns for RBS.
What no one is talking about, though, is the exposure RBS has to the U.S. mortgage market via RBS Citizens, through which RBS conducts the majority of its U.S. banking operations. According to data from the FDIC, as of September 30, RBS's U.S. operations had $45 billion worth of 1-4 family residential mortgages. Of that, $25 billion is secured by first liens. Another $11 billion is secured by junior liens. A significant chunk of that exposure comes from Charter One - which had a sizable subprime lending operation. Last fall, Charter One, like other banks, announced that it would stop buying mortgages from wholesale brokers.
Overall, it is impossible to know how much of Citizen's portfolio consists of subprime mortgages, but based on comments made by Lawrence K. Fish, the former CEO of Citizens Financial, it could be sizable. In a December editorial in the Washington Post, Fish wrote that the "number of homeowners in low and moderate income communities grew by 26.6 percent in the 1990s, nearly twice as fast as the number of homeowners in high income areas," and said, "Citizens Financial group has built a highly successful business around these emerging markets." Maybe this is good social policy - but it may not turn out to have been good financial policy.
While the $25 billion in first liens may be fine, the Wall Street source (who again is not commenting on RBS specifically) says that junior liens - even those that are prime - are, in general trading for between 40 cents to 80 cents on the dollar, and that home equity lines are going for between 35 cents to 70 cents on the dollar. That would imply more billions in writedowns for RBS.
*****
On a separate note, RBS could also have a problem with its leveraged lending book. According to a Lehman report last fall, RBS was the number two provider of European leveraged loans. Back in December, it announced a GBP 250 million (roughly $500 million) writedown, but did not detail the size of its portfolio. As recently as last summer, the bank's attitude seemed to be full steam ahead: Said CEO Goodwin in a June article, "There are no clouds on the horizon."
Good did add, though, "I'm touching wood as I say that." He may want to find a forest.
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