Singapore budget to cushion impact of slower growth: analysts
Agence France-Presse - 2/13/2008 1:49 AM
The government is expected to cut personal income taxes and announce a financial package to cushion the impact of rising prices and slowing economic growth in its 2008 budget, analysts said.
Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam is likely to announce Friday an "inflation offset package" aimed at helping primarily the poor and elderly cope with rising living costs, they said.
"This year's budget will be closely watched," Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said.
Singapore, Southeast Asia's most advanced economy, grew 7.5 percent last year. The stock market sizzled to record highs and companies reported robust earnings.
But with some economists saying the United States is in a recession, the government forecasts Singapore's trade-reliant economy to expand at a slower clip of 4.5 percent to 6.5 percent this year.
While salaries increased and a record number of workers were employed last year, many Singaporeans and foreign residents saw their purchasing power eroded as soaring crude oil prices drove up the costs of food and other items.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was quoted earlier this month as saying inflation could exceed five percent this year, compared with 2.1 percent in 2007.
"Against a backdrop of intensified downside risks to growth and sharply higher inflation, the thrust of the budget will be to aggressively tackle issues related to costs of living and business competitiveness," Kit said.
"Given buoyant government revenues, we expect a generous budget, with large transfers and rebates to offset higher costs of living, possible cuts in income tax rates and other measures to lower business costs."
The government is expected to end the financial year with a surplus instead of a deficit, which it had earlier projected, analysts said.
Hoe Woei Chen, an economist with United Overseas Bank (UOB), expects a personal income tax rate cut to 18 percent from 20 percent.
She also expects a large part of the budget to address "the widening income gap" and to help lower-income groups and the elderly.
"Because of the strong economic growth last year, the government has plenty of room for manoeuvre," Hoe told AFP. "We expect some cash handouts and rebates and the usual top-ups."
Kit, of Citgroup, expects the "inflation offset package" to be an extension of the four billion Singapore dollars (2.8 billion US) in cash handouts, savings top-ups and rebates the government gave last year to temper the impact of a rise in the goods and services tax. The tax increased by two percentage points to seven percent.
A bigger portion of this year's package could be in cash in a bid to spur domestic spending and mitigate the impact of an export slowdown, he added.
With inflation hurting family budgets, the prime minister said the increase in prices was a global trend and he suggested Singaporeans find ways to cut costs.
The budget was expected to help businesses, with UOB's Hoe saying small and medium enterprises could see some tax incentives.
Firms hit by soaring office rents were also likely to get some rebates, said economist Song Seng Wun of CIMB-GK Research.
Another cut in corporate income taxes may be possible, especially after regional rival Hong Kong in October reduced its rate by one percentage point to 16.5 percent, said Kit, of Citigroup.
Singapore's rate stands at 18 percent.
Accounting firm Ernst and Young said the government should ease rules governing tax exemptions for profits of company branches in foreign countries, on foreign service income and foreign dividends.
1. Homeowners threatened with foreclosure would in some instances get a 30-day reprieve under an initiative the Bush administration announced Tuesday. Dubbed "Project Lifeline," the program will be available to people who have taken out all types of mortgages, not just the high-cost sub prime loans that have been the focus of previous relief efforts. The program was put together by six of the nation's largest financial institutions, which service almost 50 percent of the nation's mortgages.
2. Warren Buffett said Tuesday that he has offered to help out troubled bond insurers by offering a second level of insurance on up to $800 billion in municipal bonds. In an interview on CNBC, Buffett said his Berkshire Hathaway holding company made the offer of reinsurance to bond insurers Ambac Financial Group Inc., MBIA Inc. and Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. Buffett said one firm rejected his offer, and he was still waiting to hear from the other two. He did not say which was which.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - MBIA Inc plans on Thursday to urge lawmakers to curb the short-sellers beating down its stock, and to push rating agencies to revamp how they assess bond insurers. In written testimony for a subcommittee of the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, MBIA said lawmakers should help restore confidence in the bond insurers, because their failure could have far-reaching effects on the U.S. and global economies. Reuters obtained a copy of the testimony, which is for a hearing on Thursday.
Short sellers like Bill Ackman, founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, have worked hard to undermine market confidence in the bond insurers, wrote MBIA, whose shares have fallen more than 80 percent since the start of 2007.
It isn't the first time tensions between short sellers and the companies they target have escalated into public feuds. Online retailer Overstock.com has sued research firm Gradient Analytics and hedge fund Rocker Partners for allegedly joining forces to drive down its share price.
MBIA wrote that the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets should work with the Securities and Exchange Commission to "curtail (short sellers') unscrupulous and dangerous market manipulation activities."
Bond insurers are expected to make big payouts after insuring repackaged subprime mortgage and other risky debt. Those expected losses are eating into MBIA's capital.
The three major U.S. credit rating agencies are deciding whether MBIA has enough funds available to pay off expected obligations.
If MBIA doesn't have enough capital, it may be stripped of its top debt ratings. The world's largest bond insurer said it expects to find out within four weeks whether it will retain the "triple-A" ratings crucial for winning new business.
Although MBIA believes it has enough capital, "the standard has been somewhat of a moving target," the testimony said.
LESS CONFIDENCE
The changing standards have reduced the market's confidence in the insurers, MBIA said. The insurer said industry leaders like MBIA should help the rating agencies redesign their systems for assessing bond insurers' creditworthiness.
One way for bond insurers to maintain top ratings for at least a portion of their portfolio would be municipal bond reinsurance. Warren Buffett said on Tuesday that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc has offered to shore up $800 billion of relatively safe municipal bonds guaranteed by MBIA, Ambac Financial Group Inc and FGIC Corp. Ambac and at least one of the other insurers turned him down.
MBIA's shares rose 14 cents on Wednesday to close at $11.64 on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock rose further after the close, when the bond insurer said it had closed on a sale of shares, which generated $1.1 billion of proceeds.
Mimi Barker, a spokeswoman for rating agency Standard & Poor's, declined to comment on testimony she had not seen. Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings were not immediately available for comment.
Lawmakers must support capital raising efforts of the bond insurers, because failure could have "far-reaching effects on the U.S. and global economies," MBIA wrote.
FAR-REACHING IMPACT
Losing "triple-A" ratings would be bad for MBIA and for markets, because investors that can only hold top-rated securities may be forced to dump their insured bonds. Borrowing costs for city governments and consumers could rise.
MBIA's expected losses spurred it to raise around $2.65 billion of new capital. The company is also cutting its dividend, slowing new business activity and buying reinsurance to preserve $500 million more.
Amid concerns about the market impact of downgrades, New York State Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo has met regularly with banks, insurers and others to organize rescues for companies including Ambac and FGIC.
MBIA faulted what it called "the unscrupulous and dangerous market manipulation activities of short sellers," trying to undermine market confidence in MBIA to drive the company's share price to nearly zero.
It said the practice and dissemination of "half-truths and misleading information" should be "investigated and curtailed," and called on Congress to work on the matter with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
MBIA specifically faulted Ackman, and included as an appendix a timeline of actions by Ackman, and to a lesser extent by other short sellers.
Ackman did not return a call seeking comment, but in testimony that he plans to give on Thursday, he said, "The poor decisions of (bond insurance) holding company executives are the primary cause for the bond insurers' problems, but the rating agencies also share responsibility."
Due to budgetary constraints, the Economic Indicators service (http://www.economicindicators.gov) will be discontinued effective March 1, 2008.
Economic Indicators.gov is brought to you by the Economics and Statistics Administration at the U.S. Department of Commerce. Our mission is to provide timely access to the daily releases of key economic indicators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau.
You may link to the most recent release by clicking on the report name in the table below. You may also subscribe to our *free Subscription Service to have these files emailed or faxed directly to you as soon as they are released.
US retail sales rose 0.3% in January official figures show, bolstered by sales of new cars and petrol.
The sales rise, which had not been expected, followed a 0.4% decline in December, data from the Commerce Department showed.
Analysts had predicted a 0.2% decline in January.
The US Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates in past months to boost economic activity and analysts said the figures would not delay further cuts.
"The data is clearly a surprise to the upside," said Omer Eisner of Reusch International.
"I don't think it changes the outlook for further rate cuts. But in the near term, it does ease some recession concerns."
When volatile petrol sales are stripped out, overall retail sales rose by 0.1%, the Commerce Department said.
'Not so strong'
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity in the US and it is being monitored carefully for indications of whether the country is falling into a recession.
Declines in some sales areas suggested that customers were still tightening their belts, analysts said.
Furniture sales dropped 0.5% in January, while department store sales slipped by 1.1%.
And reflecting the continued slowdown in the housing market, sales of building materials fell 1.7%.
"Some of the details were not so strong," said US interest rate strategist at Credit Suisse in New York, Carl Lantz.
"Gas (petrol) was a big add. Excluding autos and gas it was actually flat on the month."
10 comments:
That's a good one...lol.
PAP can brag again - Singapore has the largest numbers of famous arches in the world.
Singapore budget to cushion impact of slower growth: analysts
Agence France-Presse - 2/13/2008 1:49 AM
The government is expected to cut personal income taxes and announce a financial package to cushion the impact of rising prices and slowing economic growth in its 2008 budget, analysts said.
Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam is likely to announce Friday an "inflation offset package" aimed at helping primarily the poor and elderly cope with rising living costs, they said.
"This year's budget will be closely watched," Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said.
Singapore, Southeast Asia's most advanced economy, grew 7.5 percent last year. The stock market sizzled to record highs and companies reported robust earnings.
But with some economists saying the United States is in a recession, the government forecasts Singapore's trade-reliant economy to expand at a slower clip of 4.5 percent to 6.5 percent this year.
While salaries increased and a record number of workers were employed last year, many Singaporeans and foreign residents saw their purchasing power eroded as soaring crude oil prices drove up the costs of food and other items.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was quoted earlier this month as saying inflation could exceed five percent this year, compared with 2.1 percent in 2007.
"Against a backdrop of intensified downside risks to growth and sharply higher inflation, the thrust of the budget will be to aggressively tackle issues related to costs of living and business competitiveness," Kit said.
"Given buoyant government revenues, we expect a generous budget, with large transfers and rebates to offset higher costs of living, possible cuts in income tax rates and other measures to lower business costs."
The government is expected to end the financial year with a surplus instead of a deficit, which it had earlier projected, analysts said.
Hoe Woei Chen, an economist with United Overseas Bank (UOB), expects a personal income tax rate cut to 18 percent from 20 percent.
She also expects a large part of the budget to address "the widening income gap" and to help lower-income groups and the elderly.
"Because of the strong economic growth last year, the government has plenty of room for manoeuvre," Hoe told AFP. "We expect some cash handouts and rebates and the usual top-ups."
Kit, of Citgroup, expects the "inflation offset package" to be an extension of the four billion Singapore dollars (2.8 billion US) in cash handouts, savings top-ups and rebates the government gave last year to temper the impact of a rise in the goods and services tax. The tax increased by two percentage points to seven percent.
A bigger portion of this year's package could be in cash in a bid to spur domestic spending and mitigate the impact of an export slowdown, he added.
With inflation hurting family budgets, the prime minister said the increase in prices was a global trend and he suggested Singaporeans find ways to cut costs.
The budget was expected to help businesses, with UOB's Hoe saying small and medium enterprises could see some tax incentives.
Firms hit by soaring office rents were also likely to get some rebates, said economist Song Seng Wun of CIMB-GK Research.
Another cut in corporate income taxes may be possible, especially after regional rival Hong Kong in October reduced its rate by one percentage point to 16.5 percent, said Kit, of Citigroup.
Singapore's rate stands at 18 percent.
Accounting firm Ernst and Young said the government should ease rules governing tax exemptions for profits of company branches in foreign countries, on foreign service income and foreign dividends.
澳总理用中文向中国人民拜年
似曾相识(陶喆)
噢~~似曾相识
那一片 人潮如海的街
和你擦身而过
有些恍神一再回头
她发现 我的心不在焉
我却无法解释是谁
乱了我生活
该怎么做 才能把回忆都删去
那错过的幸福 我像跌入迷雾
遇见你有种 似曾相识的感觉 OH
仿佛有同样感受 在你的眼底 OH
能不能让我们再相遇
能不能让我再次认识你
似曾相识 犹如游戏
似曾相识YEAH...YEAH...YEAH...YEAH...
那一片 陷入你的世界
和你擦身而过
却忘了要往哪里走
她感觉 我的心看不见
我该怎么解释是你 乱了我生活
该怎么做才能把回忆都删去
那错过的幸福 我像跌入迷雾
遇见你有种似曾相识的感觉 OH
我看见同样的感受 在你眼底OH
能不能让我们再相遇
能不能让我再次认识你
似曾相识犹如 游戏
遇见你有种 似曾相识的感觉 OH
是否在前世 我们有一段过去OH
能不能这次改变命运
能不能这次让我真的爱你
还是往事别再提起 YEAH 。。。
似曾相识 似曾相识
遇见你有种 似曾相识的感觉 OH
是否在前世我们 有一段过去 OH
能不能帮我把你忘记
能不能帮我停下对你追寻
或许我能不再想你
遇见你有种似曾 见你有种
似曾相识的感觉
港股鼠年展望之二
2008年02月14日
来源：上海证券报
作者：（申银万国香港）
内地宏调也将影响港股
· 预期内地出口因美国经济放缓而减慢，经济增长渐改由内需带动，人民币升值短期会加快，而通胀及宏调压力仍然存在
· 短期仍不看好出口相关的工业股及航运股
· 虽然短期内需增长未能充分弥补因出口放缓对内地经济所产生的影响，但相信内需股会继续受惠
内地企业的盈利能力在美国次级债所引致的金融风暴中所受的影响主要可以从两方面去了解：其一，亚洲金融机构的次级房贷相关减值拨备；其二，美国经济放缓对公司盈利的影响。
从在内地及香港上市的金融机构中，已公布的CDO相关投资约为120亿美元，其中只有极少部份涉及次级债相关投资，即使作最坏的打算，其中所需的减值拨备达三成，仍远低于美国目前已公布的次级债级相关减值拨备达1000亿美元，相信这方面会对内地及香港上市公司的盈利影响有限。不过相信次级债风波会对内地的出口相关的制造、运输、源材料加工等行业有显著影响，建议尽量避免。
有别于10年前亚洲金融风暴，在目前的信贷危机中，美国能以宽松货币政策(即减息)援救其金融市场，这是当时亚洲金融风暴无法做到的。由去年九月减息周期开始至今，联储局已在很短短4个月时间内减息2.25%，将联邦基金利率减至3%，相信到今年年中前更会减至2.5%。另外美国政府更推出总值1500亿美元的刺激经济方案以避免经济跌入严重衰退。同时亚洲国家的经济目前占世界经济的比重越来越高，而且基本面良好，并正处于高速增长期，这种种都是97年亚洲金融风暴所不能比的，所以目前的情况仍较当时为乐观。
预期内地出口业因美国经济放缓而减慢，经济增长渐渐改由内需带动，人民币升值短期可能加快，而通胀及宏调压力仍然存在。目前美国仍为内地最主要的出口国，占出口总额的23%，而欧洲及俄罗斯等地区则由于货币走强的关系仍占内地出口的28%，而内地出口输往亚洲亦已上升至15%。虽然内地出口的货品遍及世界各地，而非只单单依赖美国，但短期而言若美国经济放缓而对内地产品需求下跌难免会影响内地的出口业，所以短期而言仍不看好出口相关的工业股及航运股。
内地2007年消费品零售总额增长达16.8%，而零售销售主要由居民的收入所带动，2007年无论是城市或农村的居民的可支配收入都有所增长，虽然短期内需增长未能充分弥补因出口放缓对内地经济所产生的影响，但相信内需股会继续受惠。
内地要面对的一个最重要的问题为通胀趋势，这在2007年的下半年尤为严重。人民币预期按年8%的升值，可以抵消部份商品价格上涨所带来的通胀，随着美国经济放缓，导致消费下跌及商品尤其是金属及原油价格下跌，有利于抵销部分通胀因素。
等股神出手才买货
2008年02月14日 来源：上海证券报 作者：曾渊沧
美国财长保尔森与六大银行一起宣布了一项被称为“救生索”的计划。目的是暂时解救那些没钱还房屋分期付款的屋主，让他们多30天的缓冲期。期间则设法安排债务重组，以避免他们因为没钱分期付款而导致银行收回房屋拍卖。一旦银行开始收回断供的房屋拍卖，那么美国的房地产市场则会崩溃。
与此同时，股神巴菲特也宣布准备出手拯救三家债务保险公司。实际上，与其说是拯救，不如说是趁低价买入潜质很好的资产。巴菲特的一生就是专门等这些超值证券出现时出手购买，然后长期持有。去年，股神不断地出售部分股票套现，现在现金很多，正好派上用场。
两个消息一起公布，马上推高了美股。港股因此也高开。恒指昨日更一度上升500多点。加上前日的升幅，基本上已经回补了节后第一天的跌幅。可惜，后劲不足。午后竟直线下滑，一度打回原形。幸好最后收市恒指还有247点的进账。
港股为什么后劲不足？相信是很多股民对股市全面看淡。一旦有反弹，就想沽售。一见大盘转势，从高点回落，更是争先恐后地逃走。现在整个股市已经变成了升只能慢慢升，跌则快快跌的局面。小股民一日不卖光股票，心中总是压着一块大石头。
对于美国这两则新闻，我对六大银行出手救市不抱什么期望，这只是在拖延时间罢了。30天后，究竟有多少没钱供楼的业主能够有能力供款？倒是股神出手的新闻比较好。这说明股神已经开始觉得美国的债券保险公司所持有的次级债已经值得买入。如果股神出手买入债券保险公司的股票，那更好。我现在等着股神宣布成功大手入股某一家美国的金融企业。我现在也持有不少现金无处投资，就等着股神的消息。股神出手后，我也会进场。
上一回，思捷（330）公布了一个很不错的业绩。股价一度上升至109港元。然后此后就开始回跌。如果你在思捷公布业绩之前买入的话，值得博一博，回报应该也不错。现在，不少公司很快就要公布业绩了，也正是投资者寻宝的时候。明天东亚银行（023）会公布业绩，相信不会让市场失望。因为东亚银行一向在证券、衍生工具上的投资非常保守，因此这次因为次级债而遭到的损失应该不会太多。东亚银行现在的市盈率是18倍，公布业绩后，市盈率会再次下降。现在的股息率也有3.6％。如果股息能够保持增长，股息本身就有一定吸引力。
1. Homeowners threatened with foreclosure would in some instances get a 30-day reprieve under an initiative the Bush administration announced Tuesday. Dubbed "Project Lifeline," the program will be available to people who have taken out all types of mortgages, not just the high-cost sub prime loans that have been the focus of previous relief efforts. The program was put together by six of the nation's largest financial institutions, which service almost 50 percent of the nation's mortgages.
2. Warren Buffett said Tuesday that he has offered to help out troubled bond insurers by offering a second level of insurance on up to $800 billion in municipal bonds. In an interview on CNBC, Buffett said his Berkshire Hathaway holding company made the offer of reinsurance to bond insurers Ambac Financial Group Inc., MBIA Inc. and Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. Buffett said one firm rejected his offer, and he was still waiting to hear from the other two. He did not say which was which.
MBIA to urge curtailing short sellers
By Dan Wilchins
Wednesday February 13, 6:14 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - MBIA Inc plans on Thursday to urge lawmakers to curb the short-sellers beating down its stock, and to push rating agencies to revamp how they assess bond insurers.
In written testimony for a subcommittee of the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, MBIA said lawmakers should help restore confidence in the bond insurers, because their failure could have far-reaching effects on the U.S. and global economies. Reuters obtained a copy of the testimony, which is for a hearing on Thursday.
Short sellers like Bill Ackman, founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, have worked hard to undermine market confidence in the bond insurers, wrote MBIA, whose shares have fallen more than 80 percent since the start of 2007.
It isn't the first time tensions between short sellers and the companies they target have escalated into public feuds. Online retailer Overstock.com has sued research firm Gradient Analytics and hedge fund Rocker Partners for allegedly joining forces to drive down its share price.
MBIA wrote that the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets should work with the Securities and Exchange Commission to "curtail (short sellers') unscrupulous and dangerous market manipulation activities."
Bond insurers are expected to make big payouts after insuring repackaged subprime mortgage and other risky debt. Those expected losses are eating into MBIA's capital.
The three major U.S. credit rating agencies are deciding whether MBIA has enough funds available to pay off expected obligations.
If MBIA doesn't have enough capital, it may be stripped of its top debt ratings. The world's largest bond insurer said it expects to find out within four weeks whether it will retain the "triple-A" ratings crucial for winning new business.
Although MBIA believes it has enough capital, "the standard has been somewhat of a moving target," the testimony said.
LESS CONFIDENCE
The changing standards have reduced the market's confidence in the insurers, MBIA said. The insurer said industry leaders like MBIA should help the rating agencies redesign their systems for assessing bond insurers' creditworthiness.
One way for bond insurers to maintain top ratings for at least a portion of their portfolio would be municipal bond reinsurance. Warren Buffett said on Tuesday that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc has offered to shore up $800 billion of relatively safe municipal bonds guaranteed by MBIA, Ambac Financial Group Inc and FGIC Corp. Ambac and at least one of the other insurers turned him down.
MBIA's shares rose 14 cents on Wednesday to close at $11.64 on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock rose further after the close, when the bond insurer said it had closed on a sale of shares, which generated $1.1 billion of proceeds.
Mimi Barker, a spokeswoman for rating agency Standard & Poor's, declined to comment on testimony she had not seen. Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings were not immediately available for comment.
Lawmakers must support capital raising efforts of the bond insurers, because failure could have "far-reaching effects on the U.S. and global economies," MBIA wrote.
FAR-REACHING IMPACT
Losing "triple-A" ratings would be bad for MBIA and for markets, because investors that can only hold top-rated securities may be forced to dump their insured bonds. Borrowing costs for city governments and consumers could rise.
MBIA's expected losses spurred it to raise around $2.65 billion of new capital. The company is also cutting its dividend, slowing new business activity and buying reinsurance to preserve $500 million more.
Amid concerns about the market impact of downgrades, New York State Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo has met regularly with banks, insurers and others to organize rescues for companies including Ambac and FGIC.
MBIA faulted what it called "the unscrupulous and dangerous market manipulation activities of short sellers," trying to undermine market confidence in MBIA to drive the company's share price to nearly zero.
It said the practice and dissemination of "half-truths and misleading information" should be "investigated and curtailed," and called on Congress to work on the matter with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
MBIA specifically faulted Ackman, and included as an appendix a timeline of actions by Ackman, and to a lesser extent by other short sellers.
Ackman did not return a call seeking comment, but in testimony that he plans to give on Thursday, he said, "The poor decisions of (bond insurance) holding company executives are the primary cause for the bond insurers' problems, but the rating agencies also share responsibility."
Due to budgetary constraints, the Economic Indicators service (http://www.economicindicators.gov) will be discontinued effective March 1, 2008.
Economic Indicators.gov is brought to you by the Economics and Statistics Administration at the U.S. Department of Commerce. Our mission is to provide timely access to the daily releases of key economic indicators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau.
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US retail sales in surprise rise
13 February 2008
US retail sales rose 0.3% in January official figures show, bolstered by sales of new cars and petrol.
The sales rise, which had not been expected, followed a 0.4% decline in December, data from the Commerce Department showed.
Analysts had predicted a 0.2% decline in January.
The US Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates in past months to boost economic activity and analysts said the figures would not delay further cuts.
"The data is clearly a surprise to the upside," said Omer Eisner of Reusch International.
"I don't think it changes the outlook for further rate cuts. But in the near term, it does ease some recession concerns."
When volatile petrol sales are stripped out, overall retail sales rose by 0.1%, the Commerce Department said.
'Not so strong'
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity in the US and it is being monitored carefully for indications of whether the country is falling into a recession.
Declines in some sales areas suggested that customers were still tightening their belts, analysts said.
Furniture sales dropped 0.5% in January, while department store sales slipped by 1.1%.
And reflecting the continued slowdown in the housing market, sales of building materials fell 1.7%.
"Some of the details were not so strong," said US interest rate strategist at Credit Suisse in New York, Carl Lantz.
"Gas (petrol) was a big add. Excluding autos and gas it was actually flat on the month."
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