Yoga induces a feeling of well-being in healthy people, and can reverse the clinical and biochemical changes associated with metabolic syndrome, according to results of studies from Sweden and India. Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of heart disease risk factors such as high blood pressure, obesity and high blood sugar.
Dr. R.P. Agrawal, of the SP Medical College, Bikaner, India, and colleagues evaluated the beneficial effects of yoga and meditation in 101 adults with features of metabolic syndrome. In the study, 55 adults received three months of regular yoga including standard postures and Raja Yoga, a form of transcendental meditation daily, while the remaining received standard care.
Waist circumference, blood pressure, blood sugar, and triglycerides were significantly lower, and "good" HDL cholesterol levels were higher in the yoga group as compared to controls, Agrawal's team reports in the journal Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice.
In the second study, published online December 19 in BioMed Central Complementary and Alternative Medicine, Dr. Anette Kjellgren from the University of Karlstad, Sweden and colleagues evaluated the beneficial effects of yoga-like breathing exercises on healthy volunteers.
Fifty-five adults were advised to practice "Sudarshan Kriya," which involves cycles of slow normal and rapid breathing exercises. The exercises were practiced for an hour daily, six days a week for six weeks, while 48 controls were advised to relax in an armchair for 15 minutes daily.
At the end of the study period, feelings of anxiety, stress and depression were significantly lower and levels of optimism significantly higher in the yoga group compared to the control group, Kjellgren and colleagues report.
Yoga induces a "relaxation response" associated with reduced nervous system activity and a feeling of well-being probably due to an increase in antioxidants and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol, they suggest.
Yoga not only helps in prevention of lifestyle diseases, but can also be "a powerful adjunct therapy when these diseases arise," co-investigator Dr. Faahri Saatiglou, from the University of Oslo, told Reuters Health. "We do not emphasize this point enough in our Western health care."
HONG KONG, Dec 31 (Reuters) - China's fabled Shaolin Temple, the birthplace of kung fu immortalised in countless martial arts films, may help drive home a Hong Kong IPO soon.
The government of Dengfeng -- home to a mainstay of kung fu films for decades -- plans to float shares in local tourism assets ranging from hotels to a cable-car service, many of which thrive on the monastery's fame, the South China Morning Post reported on Monday.
But the monastery itself -- known in the West as the training ground for David Carradine's character Kwai Chang Caine, or "grasshopper", in the 1970s hit television series "Kung Fu" -- doesn't plan a listing in the short term for fear of besmirching its reputation, the newspaper said.
"To become involved in such a highly risky business is against the spirit of Buddha," abbot Shi Yongxin was quoted as saying.
"And we have adequate money to support what we want to do."
Indeed, Shaolin has embarked on a number of commercial ventures in past years, from kung fu shows to film production and a reality TV search for the next kung fu star.
Monks from the temple, in the central province of Henan, have embarked on world tours to perform super-human feats of agility and balance.
Monastery executive director Shi Yanlin told the newspaper admission fees and donations amounted to about 50 million yuan ($6.9 million) this year, versus last year's 32 million yuan.
But the temple came under fire in 2006 after a senior Chinese monk was awarded a luxury sports car for services to the local tourism industry, stirring up heated debate on the Internet.
Dengfeng's government has set up a listing vehicle, the Songshan Shaolin Tourism Group, that it wants to debut in Hong Kong, the newspaper quoted tourism official Pei Songxian as saying in Dengfeng without offering details or a timeframe.
Tourism accounts for a third of the city's gross domestic product; some 4.13 million tourists visited the city last year, a rise of 29 per cent, with the temple a main draw.
Pei added that Dengfeng's government wanted to open a chain of vegetarian restaurants across China next year. ($1=7.303 Yuan)
The Ministry of Finance of China said on Sunday that it would levy export taxes on wheat, corn, rice, soybeans and various processed grains in 2008.
The move is apparently aimed at reining in surging domestic prices, which have driven up the inflation rate, and it comes just a week after China scrapped tax rebates for grain exports. The export tax rates will range from 5-25 percent and affect 57 types of grain and grain products.
The rates for wheat and wheat products are 20 percent and 25 percent, respectively. The rate for corn, rice and soybean is five percent, while that for processed corn, rice and soybean products is 10 percent.
A week ago, the ministry said that it would scrap a 13 percent export tax rebate on 84 categories of grain and grain products, effective December 20. Those rebates, together with high international grain prices, have boosted Chinese grain exports this year.
The nation exported 4.87 million tons of maize and 400,000 tons of soybeans in the first 11 months of 2007, up 85.3 percent and 23.8 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Exports of rice rose 5.8 percent to 1.13 million tons and exports of wheat soared 206.51 percent to 1.85 million tons.
Soaring food prices drove the consumer price index (CPI) to an 11-year high of 6.9 percent in November. The prices of food, which has a 33 percent weighting in the CPI, soared 18.2 percent last month.
The high inflation rate, well above the target of three percent set by the government for 2007, has become a major concern of the government, which is concerned about its impact on the poor.
Bumper grain crops this year, however, offer hope of slower price hikes in the world's most populous nation. Grain production, which has increased continuously since 2004, is expected to exceed 500 million tons this year.
By Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor Published: 31 December 2007
The world's major banking groups are facing unprecedented pressure to repair balance sheets and restore their liquidity as the ongoing credit crisis shows few signs of easing. Conventional commercial pressures are also refusing to go away.
HSBC, the world's third-biggest bank, whose business strategy has been under critical scrutiny for some time, has been given six months by the major pension fund and investor CalPERS (the California Public Employees' Retirement System) to outline plans for radical change.
Christy Wood, CalPERS' head of global equities, said: "We want to see this unfold in the next few months. If they do not set it out before 1 July then there is a problem."
These are the first words CalPERS has uttered about its holding in HSBC, although it backed an aggressive campaign for change led by the activist investors Knight Vinke which manages $330m (£166m) for CalPERS. Knight Vinke, run by Eric Knight, launched its attack on HSBC's management last spring, describing HSBC executives as "complacent" for their failure to focus on the Chinese market. Rumours over the past few days that HSBC is set to sell off its car finance division are unlikely to stem the flow of criticism.
Reports also emerged over the weekend that John Thain, the new chief executive of Merrill Lynch, is in talks with Chinese and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds that could lead to the sale of another big stake in the US bank, to restore the group's balance sheet in the wake of multi- billion dollar losses on the sub-prime exposure. Merill Lynch has already sold $5bn of its equity to the Singaporean government investment firm Temasek. Including Switzerland's UBS, stakes taken by state investment funds in investment banks in the past month have hit nearly $30bn. Temasek now owns 18 per cent of Standard Chartered and bought a 2.1 per cent stake in Barclays to support the British bank's attempt to buy ABN. The China Development Bank bought a stake in Barclays at the same time.
However, sovereign wealth funds are unlikely to supply all the funding the banks need. Banking analysts believe that a series of other capital-raising exercises by leading banks is inevitable. "What looks very likely for 2008 is a wave of capital increases by financial institutions looking to repair their stretched balance sheets," said Viswas Raghavan, head of International Capital Markets at JP Morgan, while Cazenove recently suggested that the highly leveraged Royal Bank of Scotland group would need to raise £5.8bn through a rights issue. However banks may be reluctant to issue pure equity in the light of already depressed share prices; convertible bonds would be another way of raising capital.
The banks' attempts to shore up their positions are badly affecting an already precarious commercial property market. Research from estate agent Savills, showed eight of the 97 lenders in the UK commercial real estate market have ceased to transact business in the sector, while 11 more are "reluctant" and almost 30 will only lend on a "qualified" basis. Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Deutsche Bank and Barclays Capital are thought to be among those now withdrawing from commercial property.
All financial institutions will find their positions complicated by the imminent introduction of the Basel II requirements on capital adequacy, which formally come into effect tomorrow in the EU, and on 1 January 2009 in the US. Mark Wheaton, head of management consultant Accenture's UK risk management practice, said: "The typical bank will spend £50-£100m implementing Basel II."
Top economist says America could plunge into recessionSuzy Jagger in New York Losses arising from America’s housing recession could triple over the next few years and they represent the greatest threat to growth in the United States, one of the world’s leading economists has told The Times.
Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.
Professor Shiller, co-founder of the respected S&P Case/Shiller house-price index, said: “American real estate values have already lost around $1 trillion [£503 billion]. That could easily increase threefold over the next few years. This is a much bigger issue than sub-prime. We are talking trillions of dollars’ worth of losses.”
He said that US futures markets had priced in further declines in house prices in the short term, with contracts on the S&P Shiller index pointing to decreases of up to 14 per cent.
“Over the next five years, the futures contracts are pointing to losses of around 35 per cent in some areas, such as Florida, California and Las Vegas. There is a good chance that this housing recession will go on for years,” he said.
Professor Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, a phrase later used by Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, said: “This is a classic bubble scenario. A few years ago house prices got very high, pushed up because of investor expectations. Americans have fuelled the myth that prices would never fall, that values could only go up. People believed the story. Now there is a very real chance of a big recession.”
He pointed out that signs at the beginning of 2007 that had indicated that some states were beginning to experience a recovery in house prices had proved to be false: “States such as Massachusetts had seen some increases at the beginning of the year. Denver also looked like it had a different path. Now all states are falling.”
Until two years ago, each of America’s 50 states had experienced a prolonged housing boom, with properties in some – such as Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada – doubling in price, fuelled by cheap credit and lax lending practices to borrowers who ordinarily would not have been able to secure a mortgage. Two years ago, the northeastern states of America became the first to slide into a recession after 17 successive interest-rate rises between June 2004 and August 2006 hit the property market.
Last week, new numbers from the S&P/Case Shiller index showed that house prices had declined in October at their fastest rate for more than six years, with homes in Miami losing 12 per cent of their value.
China's central bank chief reaffirms tight money policy for 2008
Reuters Published: December 30, 2007
BEIJING: China's central bank will implement a tight monetary policy in 2008, using a range of tools to keep a check on liquidity, the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, reaffirmed.
The People's Bank of China has waged a war on excess liquidity and inflation in 2007, raising interest rates six times and increasing the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve 10 times, to a record level.
Still, annual consumer inflation is running at the quickest pace in over a decade, and many economists are concerned that it could spill over from food into the broader economy.
In a New Year's address to his staff, Zhou said Saturday that 2008 would bring fresh challenges.
China must "step up and improve macroeconomic controls, expand the role of monetary policy in economic controls, carry out a tight monetary policy, make coordinated use of a range of monetary policy tools and use effective measures to step up management over liquidity," he said.
Zhou's comments echo a shift in policy articulated at a recent government economic work conference, at which Beijing said it would move to a "tight" monetary policy from the previously "prudent," or slightly more accomodative, one.
Zhou gave the central bank good marks for 2007, saying it had improved its use of financial and macroeconomic controls and stepped up the effectiveness of monetary policy.
He made no assessment of current economic conditions.
Zhou also reiterated the bank's long-standing view that it will work to improve the yuan's exchange rate regime, adding that it would seek to better adjust domestic demand and improve the balance of international payments.
Meanwhile, China's fiscal revenue for 2007 is expected to total 2.84 trillion yuan, or $389.5 billion, outstripping budget forecasts by some 400 billion yuan, Xinhua, the state-run news agency, said Saturday, citing a cabinet report. Revenue in the first 11 months rose by 37 percent from a year earlier to 2.68 trillion yuan, the report said.
"The huge extra fiscal revenue reflects China's stable, rapid economic growth," Xinhua quoted the report from the State Council, or cabinet, as saying.
On Sunday, the Finance Ministry said that tariffs of 5 percent to 25 percent would be imposed on exports of some grains during 2008, in the latest measure aimed at discouraging sales abroad as domestic food prices soar.
From Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, exports of wheat, buckwheat, barley and oats will be taxed at 20 percent, while for wheat flour and starch the rate will be 25 percent. Exports of corn, rice, soybeans, sorghum and millet will face a 5 percent tariff. Those of corn, rice and soybean flour, as well as corn starch, will be taxed at 10 percent, the ministry said.
Dollar's Share of Currency Reserves Falls, IMF Says
By Christopher Swann and Kevin Carmichael
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves fell to a record low in the third quarter as demand for U.S. assets waned after the subprime- mortgage market collapsed.
The dollar accounted for 63.8 percent of reserves at the end of September, down from 65 percent three months earlier, the International Monetary Fund said today in Washington. The euro's share rose to 26.4 percent from 25.5 percent. IMF quarterly figures go back to 1999, the year the euro was introduced.
The figures suggest central banks diversified out of the dollar as it fell to the lowest level in a decade. Investors sold a record amount of U.S. securities in August when defaults on subprime mortgages rippled through financial markets and the Federal Reserve signaled it would cut interest rates.
``The dollar seems to be losing, at least to some small extent, its favored status,'' said David Powell, a currency strategist at IDEAglobal in New York. ``Foreign central banks aren't necessarily shunning dollar assets, but they were more attracted to other currencies.''
China, Russia and other countries with trade surpluses or rising energy-export earnings are setting up so-called sovereign wealth funds to increase earnings on their reserves. Speculation also intensified in the third quarter that Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and other Middle Eastern nations would follow Kuwait and end their currencies' pegs to the dollar.
Total Reserves
Total foreign-exchange reserves increased in the third quarter to $6.04 trillion from $5.72 trillion at the end of June. The figures on currency allocations are based on a smaller total, $3.83 trillion last quarter, because not all central banks agree to identify the breakdown of their reserves.
The British pound's share of foreign exchange reserves rose to 4.7 percent, from 4.6 percent in the second quarter and 4.2 percent in the third quarter of 2006. The yen's third-quarter allocation dropped to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent. The Japanese currency represented 3 percent of reserves a year earlier.
The dollar's share has declined from 71.1 percent in March 1999, while the euro's allocation has climbed from 18.1 percent.
While the dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves is declining, the size of dollar holdings has continued to rise with the gains in total reserves.
The dollar amount climbed to $2.45 trillion in September from $2.08 trillion a year before. The value of euro holdings exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, rising to $1.01 trillion from $765 billion in the third quarter of 2006.
``Small movements in the dollar's share are not very important,'' said Brad Setser, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York who used to work at the U.S. Treasury. ``The real issue is that the amount of dollars held by central banks is rising dramatically.''
Dollar's Decline
The Fed's trade-weighted broad dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency's value against its counterparts from the biggest American trading partners, fell as low as 100.36 in September, the weakest since 1997. Since then, it reached a record low of 97.38 on Nov. 7.
International investors have reduced their holdings of U.S. stocks and bonds since the August credit collapse hammered the values of corporate bonds and securities tied to subprime mortgages. The losses spurred by rising U.S. mortgage defaults caused banks and securities firms worldwide to write off more than $80 billion.
Foreigners were net sellers of long-term U.S. financial assets in the third quarter, U.S. Treasury figures show. Monthly sales averaged $11.8 billion in the period, compared with average net purchases of $64 billion in the previous five years.
In August, when the credit rout sparked concern that banks would curtail lending, leading to a slump in spending that would send the U.S. into recession, foreigners sold a net $40.7 billion of American stocks.
Confidence in Dollar
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke expressed confidence last month that the dollar will keep its mantle as the world's top reserve currency.
``I don't see any significant change in the broad holdings of dollars,'' Bernanke said in answering questions at a Nov. 8 congressional hearing. The dollar ``remains the dominant reserve asset and I expect that to continue to be the case,'' he said.
Paulson defended the dollar in remarks to reporters on Nov. 9, at a time when it had fallen to a record low against the euro and Canadian dollar and the weakest versus Britain's pound since 1981.
``The dollar has been the world's reserve currency since World War II and there's a reason,'' said Paulson, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief executive officer. ``I put the U.S. economy up against any in the world in terms of competitiveness -- that's a fact.''
The IMF calculates foreign exchange reserves in dollars, so the euro's rise against the U.S. currency this year accounts for much of its growing share of central banks' reserves, said Meg Browne, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York and a former economist at the Federal Reserve.
``If you're holding euros, and you don't do anything, your euro holdings are still going to be valued at a higher level,'' Browne said from New York. ``Total U.S. dollar holdings continued to rise. It's not apparent that central banks are diversifying out of dollars.''
Still, the value of euros held by central banks increased 8.6 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, a period when the euro climbed 4.7 percent against the dollar, according to Powell. That suggests a ``real'' gain in euro holdings of about 3.9 percent, he said.
``The dollar diversification story is likely to stay alive through the course of 2008,'' Powell said. ``It's not something that's going to happen overnight. It's a long-term negative for the dollar.''
SAXO BANK: UK RECESSION TO PROMPT AIR OF 'FORCED SAVINGS' IN A TOUGHER 2008
David Karsbøl, head of strategy, Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank, the Danish online investment bank, issues a cautionary 2008 outlook - warning investors of the end of cheap money, tighter lending conditions, rising inflation and a UK recession ushering in a new mood of "forced savings" for Western consumers.
• Financial outlook 2008
US and Western consumers will have to stop living beyond their means and start saving, for the first time in decades, as rising inflation in 2008 sees the cost of living soar, applying a break on consumption and turning GDP growth negative five quarters after house prices peak.
For the first time since the seventies we are seeing the re-emergence of "stagflation," which means we are seeing a reduction in risk-appetite, rising inflation and slowing GDP growth.
Central Banks are no longer in control of inflation and have kept interest rates artificially low for too long. Now, they have finally taken notice and will need to raise rates in 2008 or risk a decade of high inflation.
With that in mind, GDP growth and consumption will not return to 'normal' until 2012, pushing real long-term interest rates to creep up and unemployment to climb between 80pc-100pc higher than in 2007.
US
The US will be the first country to suffer, with GDP growth tipped to turn negative from the second or third quarter of 2008.
But despite some dire warnings for the US outlook, Saxo Bank, known as an online FX trading bank, predicts the troubled US Dollar will stage a comeback against an "overvalued" Euro in 2008.
The Euro Dollar (EURUSD) will retreat from its current level, to trade at 1.3400 by Q4 2008.
Europe
Europe is forecast to undergo at least one interest rate rise, with the European Central Bank hiking rates to 4.25pc. While all countries that have benefited from a housing boom stand to suffer from the unravelling credit crisis and a drop in house prices, the UK and US are the most vulnerable.
UK
The UK will be very vulnerable throughout 2008 as we expect housing to slow and the effect of pared back bank bonuses start to play out.
We are bearish on the pound, which will be a volatile currency mover throughout the year and weaken to trade at 1.90 against the US Dollar in the second, and again in the fourth quarter.
China
The China bubble that has been the big story since the late 90's will finally and significantly burst in 2008, with the Shanghai Composite index plummeting a colossal 40pc to target 2900 by the year's end.
Japan
One country Saxo Bank tips for a surprise comeback is Japan, which may become the contrarian investment of 2008 after recently undergoing financial sector reforms, seeing an increase in foreign capital in-flow and a rally in home prices and personal consumption.
We believe Japan could stage a comeback in 2008, but we won't buy the Nikkei 225 until it hits 352.
Sectors
Energy and agricultural sectors are tipped to be the strong performers through 2008, with oil predicted to push $175 p/b and wheat, corn and livestock prices rallying on the back of poor supply, higher demand for bio-ethanol products and rising meat demand from Chinese consumers.
Iran says its first atom plant to start in mid-2008
Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:18pm EST
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's first atomic power plant will start operating in mid-2008, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Sunday, two days after the country received a second delivery of nuclear fuel from Russia.
Mottaki also told Iranian media that Tehran wants assurances that the United States will accept the results of the talks before holding a new meeting about ways to end violence in Iraq.
U.S. and Iraqi officials have held three rounds of talks since May on the security situation in Iraq, easing a diplomatic freeze that lasted almost three decades, but Mottaki's remarks suggested Tehran was not satisfied with the outcome so far.
"These negotiations should have a clear agenda and reach clear results, different from before," he said.
Iran and the United States are at odds over who is to blame for the bloodshed in Iraq and are also embroiled in a dispute over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Washington suspects Iran wants to build a bomb, a charge the Islamic state denies.
In a move both Moscow and Washington said should convince Tehran to shut down its disputed uranium enrichment program, Russia delivered the first batch of about 80 tonnes of uranium fuel rods to Iran's Bushehr plant on December 17.
A second delivery arrived 11 days later, Iranian media said.
The head of the Russian company building Bushehr, state-run Atomstroiexport, has been quoted as saying the facility would not be operational until at least the end of next year.
But Mottaki said: "Half of the capacity of the Bushehr nuclear power plant will be inaugurated next summer."
Iran says it still needs to produce nuclear fuel domestically as it wants to build other power plants as part of a planned network with a capacity of 20,000 megawatt by 2020 to satisfy soaring electricity demands. It says it has started to construct a 360 MW plant in the southwestern Khuzestan province.
Enriched uranium can be used for making nuclear fuel and also, if refined much further, provide material for bombs.
Turning to Iraq, Mottaki said Iran had agreed in principle to hold a fourth meeting with U.S. officials. His ministry earlier this month suggested they may be held in early January.
But, Iran "has concerns about the way the other side would cooperate in these talks and also the commitment of the other side to the results," Mottaki said.
Iran had conveyed this to the United States via Iraqi officials and was now waiting for a response.
"The negotiations should take place after the other side (makes a commitment) to accept the results of talks," he said, without elaborating.
Washington accuses Iran of arming and training Shi'ite Muslim militias in Iraq. But U.S. officials have recently softened their rhetoric towards Iran, saying Tehran appears to have cut back its supply of roadside bombs to the militias.
Tehran blames the sectarian violence on the U.S.-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003 and have repeatedly called on Washington to pull out its troops.
(Reporting by Zahra Hosseinian; Writing by Fredrik Dahl; Editing by Sami Aboudi)
11 comments:
Study: Yoga has multiple benefits
Yoga induces a feeling of well-being in healthy people, and can reverse the clinical and biochemical changes associated with metabolic syndrome, according to results of studies from Sweden and India. Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of heart disease risk factors such as high blood pressure, obesity and high blood sugar.
Dr. R.P. Agrawal, of the SP Medical College, Bikaner, India, and colleagues evaluated the beneficial effects of yoga and meditation in 101 adults with features of metabolic syndrome. In the study, 55 adults received three months of regular yoga including standard postures and Raja Yoga, a form of transcendental meditation daily, while the remaining received standard care.
Waist circumference, blood pressure, blood sugar, and triglycerides were significantly lower, and "good" HDL cholesterol levels were higher in the yoga group as compared to controls, Agrawal's team reports in the journal Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice.
In the second study, published online December 19 in BioMed Central Complementary and Alternative Medicine, Dr. Anette Kjellgren from the University of Karlstad, Sweden and colleagues evaluated the beneficial effects of yoga-like breathing exercises on healthy volunteers.
Fifty-five adults were advised to practice "Sudarshan Kriya," which involves cycles of slow normal and rapid breathing exercises. The exercises were practiced for an hour daily, six days a week for six weeks, while 48 controls were advised to relax in an armchair for 15 minutes daily.
At the end of the study period, feelings of anxiety, stress and depression were significantly lower and levels of optimism significantly higher in the yoga group compared to the control group, Kjellgren and colleagues report.
Yoga induces a "relaxation response" associated with reduced nervous system activity and a feeling of well-being probably due to an increase in antioxidants and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol, they suggest.
Yoga not only helps in prevention of lifestyle diseases, but can also be "a powerful adjunct therapy when these diseases arise," co-investigator Dr. Faahri Saatiglou, from the University of Oslo, told Reuters Health. "We do not emphasize this point enough in our Western health care."
China’s Shaolin Temple To Help Kick Off IPO
HONG KONG, Dec 31 (Reuters) - China's fabled Shaolin Temple, the birthplace of kung fu immortalised in countless martial arts films, may help drive home a Hong Kong IPO soon.
The government of Dengfeng -- home to a mainstay of kung fu films for decades -- plans to float shares in local tourism assets ranging from hotels to a cable-car service, many of which thrive on the monastery's fame, the South China Morning Post reported on Monday.
But the monastery itself -- known in the West as the training ground for David Carradine's character Kwai Chang Caine, or "grasshopper", in the 1970s hit television series "Kung Fu" -- doesn't plan a listing in the short term for fear of besmirching its reputation, the newspaper said.
"To become involved in such a highly risky business is against the spirit of Buddha," abbot Shi Yongxin was quoted as saying.
"And we have adequate money to support what we want to do."
Indeed, Shaolin has embarked on a number of commercial ventures in past years, from kung fu shows to film production and a reality TV search for the next kung fu star.
Monks from the temple, in the central province of Henan, have embarked on world tours to perform super-human feats of agility and balance.
Monastery executive director Shi Yanlin told the newspaper admission fees and donations amounted to about 50 million yuan ($6.9 million) this year, versus last year's 32 million yuan.
But the temple came under fire in 2006 after a senior Chinese monk was awarded a luxury sports car for services to the local tourism industry, stirring up heated debate on the Internet.
Dengfeng's government has set up a listing vehicle, the Songshan Shaolin Tourism Group, that it wants to debut in Hong Kong, the newspaper quoted tourism official Pei Songxian as saying in Dengfeng without offering details or a timeframe.
Tourism accounts for a third of the city's gross domestic product; some 4.13 million tourists visited the city last year, a rise of 29 per cent, with the temple a main draw.
Pei added that Dengfeng's government wanted to open a chain of vegetarian restaurants across China next year. ($1=7.303 Yuan)
曲終人散的感覺
The Ministry of Finance of China said on Sunday that it would levy export taxes on wheat, corn, rice, soybeans and various processed grains in 2008.
The move is apparently aimed at reining in surging domestic prices, which have driven up the inflation rate, and it comes just a week after China scrapped tax rebates for grain exports.
The export tax rates will range from 5-25 percent and affect 57 types of grain and grain products.
The rates for wheat and wheat products are 20 percent and 25 percent, respectively. The rate for corn, rice and soybean is five percent, while that for processed corn, rice and soybean products is 10 percent.
A week ago, the ministry said that it would scrap a 13 percent export tax rebate on 84 categories of grain and grain products, effective December 20. Those rebates, together with high international grain prices, have boosted Chinese grain exports this year.
The nation exported 4.87 million tons of maize and 400,000 tons of soybeans in the first 11 months of 2007, up 85.3 percent and 23.8 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Exports of rice rose 5.8 percent to 1.13 million tons and exports of wheat soared 206.51 percent to 1.85 million tons.
Soaring food prices drove the consumer price index (CPI) to an 11-year high of 6.9 percent in November. The prices of food, which has a 33 percent weighting in the CPI, soared 18.2 percent last month.
The high inflation rate, well above the target of three percent set by the government for 2007, has become a major concern of the government, which is concerned about its impact on the poor.
Bumper grain crops this year, however, offer hope of slower price hikes in the world's most populous nation. Grain production, which has increased continuously since 2004, is expected to exceed 500 million tons this year.
THE INDEPENDENT
Banks fight to rebuild balance sheets
By Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Published: 31 December 2007
The world's major banking groups are facing unprecedented pressure to repair balance sheets and restore their liquidity as the ongoing credit crisis shows few signs of easing. Conventional commercial pressures are also refusing to go away.
HSBC, the world's third-biggest bank, whose business strategy has been under critical scrutiny for some time, has been given six months by the major pension fund and investor CalPERS (the California Public Employees' Retirement System) to outline plans for radical change.
Christy Wood, CalPERS' head of global equities, said: "We want to see this unfold in the next few months. If they do not set it out before 1 July then there is a problem."
These are the first words CalPERS has uttered about its holding in HSBC, although it backed an aggressive campaign for change led by the activist investors Knight Vinke which manages $330m (£166m) for CalPERS. Knight Vinke, run by Eric Knight, launched its attack on HSBC's management last spring, describing HSBC executives as "complacent" for their failure to focus on the Chinese market. Rumours over the past few days that HSBC is set to sell off its car finance division are unlikely to stem the flow of criticism.
Reports also emerged over the weekend that John Thain, the new chief executive of Merrill Lynch, is in talks with Chinese and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds that could lead to the sale of another big stake in the US bank, to restore the group's balance sheet in the wake of multi- billion dollar losses on the sub-prime exposure. Merill Lynch has already sold $5bn of its equity to the Singaporean government investment firm Temasek. Including Switzerland's UBS, stakes taken by state investment funds in investment banks in the past month have hit nearly $30bn. Temasek now owns 18 per cent of Standard Chartered and bought a 2.1 per cent stake in Barclays to support the British bank's attempt to buy ABN. The China Development Bank bought a stake in Barclays at the same time.
However, sovereign wealth funds are unlikely to supply all the funding the banks need. Banking analysts believe that a series of other capital-raising exercises by leading banks is inevitable. "What looks very likely for 2008 is a wave of capital increases by financial institutions looking to repair their stretched balance sheets," said Viswas Raghavan, head of International Capital Markets at JP Morgan, while Cazenove recently suggested that the highly leveraged Royal Bank of Scotland group would need to raise £5.8bn through a rights issue. However banks may be reluctant to issue pure equity in the light of already depressed share prices; convertible bonds would be another way of raising capital.
The banks' attempts to shore up their positions are badly affecting an already precarious commercial property market. Research from estate agent Savills, showed eight of the 97 lenders in the UK commercial real estate market have ceased to transact business in the sector, while 11 more are "reluctant" and almost 30 will only lend on a "qualified" basis. Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Deutsche Bank and Barclays Capital are thought to be among those now withdrawing from commercial property.
All financial institutions will find their positions complicated by the imminent introduction of the Basel II requirements on capital adequacy, which formally come into effect tomorrow in the EU, and on 1 January 2009 in the US. Mark Wheaton, head of management consultant Accenture's UK risk management practice, said: "The typical bank will spend £50-£100m implementing Basel II."
From The TimesDecember 31, 2007
Top economist says America could plunge into recessionSuzy Jagger in New York
Losses arising from America’s housing recession could triple over the next few years and they represent the greatest threat to growth in the United States, one of the world’s leading economists has told The Times.
Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.
Professor Shiller, co-founder of the respected S&P Case/Shiller house-price index, said: “American real estate values have already lost around $1 trillion [£503 billion]. That could easily increase threefold over the next few years. This is a much bigger issue than sub-prime. We are talking trillions of dollars’ worth of losses.”
He said that US futures markets had priced in further declines in house prices in the short term, with contracts on the S&P Shiller index pointing to decreases of up to 14 per cent.
“Over the next five years, the futures contracts are pointing to losses of around 35 per cent in some areas, such as Florida, California and Las Vegas. There is a good chance that this housing recession will go on for years,” he said.
Professor Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, a phrase later used by Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, said: “This is a classic bubble scenario. A few years ago house prices got very high, pushed up because of investor expectations. Americans have fuelled the myth that prices would never fall, that values could only go up. People believed the story. Now there is a very real chance of a big recession.”
He pointed out that signs at the beginning of 2007 that had indicated that some states were beginning to experience a recovery in house prices had proved to be false: “States such as Massachusetts had seen some increases at the beginning of the year. Denver also looked like it had a different path. Now all states are falling.”
Until two years ago, each of America’s 50 states had experienced a prolonged housing boom, with properties in some – such as Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada – doubling in price, fuelled by cheap credit and lax lending practices to borrowers who ordinarily would not have been able to secure a mortgage. Two years ago, the northeastern states of America became the first to slide into a recession after 17 successive interest-rate rises between June 2004 and August 2006 hit the property market.
Last week, new numbers from the S&P/Case Shiller index showed that house prices had declined in October at their fastest rate for more than six years, with homes in Miami losing 12 per cent of their value.
China's central bank chief reaffirms tight money policy for 2008
Reuters
Published: December 30, 2007
BEIJING: China's central bank will implement a tight monetary policy in 2008, using a range of tools to keep a check on liquidity, the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, reaffirmed.
The People's Bank of China has waged a war on excess liquidity and inflation in 2007, raising interest rates six times and increasing the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve 10 times, to a record level.
Still, annual consumer inflation is running at the quickest pace in over a decade, and many economists are concerned that it could spill over from food into the broader economy.
In a New Year's address to his staff, Zhou said Saturday that 2008 would bring fresh challenges.
China must "step up and improve macroeconomic controls, expand the role of monetary policy in economic controls, carry out a tight monetary policy, make coordinated use of a range of monetary policy tools and use effective measures to step up management over liquidity," he said.
Zhou's comments echo a shift in policy articulated at a recent government economic work conference, at which Beijing said it would move to a "tight" monetary policy from the previously "prudent," or slightly more accomodative, one.
Zhou gave the central bank good marks for 2007, saying it had improved its use of financial and macroeconomic controls and stepped up the effectiveness of monetary policy.
He made no assessment of current economic conditions.
Zhou also reiterated the bank's long-standing view that it will work to improve the yuan's exchange rate regime, adding that it would seek to better adjust domestic demand and improve the balance of international payments.
Meanwhile, China's fiscal revenue for 2007 is expected to total 2.84 trillion yuan, or $389.5 billion, outstripping budget forecasts by some 400 billion yuan, Xinhua, the state-run news agency, said Saturday, citing a cabinet report. Revenue in the first 11 months rose by 37 percent from a year earlier to 2.68 trillion yuan, the report said.
"The huge extra fiscal revenue reflects China's stable, rapid economic growth," Xinhua quoted the report from the State Council, or cabinet, as saying.
On Sunday, the Finance Ministry said that tariffs of 5 percent to 25 percent would be imposed on exports of some grains during 2008, in the latest measure aimed at discouraging sales abroad as domestic food prices soar.
From Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, exports of wheat, buckwheat, barley and oats will be taxed at 20 percent, while for wheat flour and starch the rate will be 25 percent. Exports of corn, rice, soybeans, sorghum and millet will face a 5 percent tariff. Those of corn, rice and soybean flour, as well as corn starch, will be taxed at 10 percent, the ministry said.
Dollar's Share of Currency Reserves Falls, IMF Says
By Christopher Swann and Kevin Carmichael
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves fell to a record low in the third quarter as demand for U.S. assets waned after the subprime- mortgage market collapsed.
The dollar accounted for 63.8 percent of reserves at the end of September, down from 65 percent three months earlier, the International Monetary Fund said today in Washington. The euro's share rose to 26.4 percent from 25.5 percent. IMF quarterly figures go back to 1999, the year the euro was introduced.
The figures suggest central banks diversified out of the dollar as it fell to the lowest level in a decade. Investors sold a record amount of U.S. securities in August when defaults on subprime mortgages rippled through financial markets and the Federal Reserve signaled it would cut interest rates.
``The dollar seems to be losing, at least to some small extent, its favored status,'' said David Powell, a currency strategist at IDEAglobal in New York. ``Foreign central banks aren't necessarily shunning dollar assets, but they were more attracted to other currencies.''
China, Russia and other countries with trade surpluses or rising energy-export earnings are setting up so-called sovereign wealth funds to increase earnings on their reserves. Speculation also intensified in the third quarter that Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and other Middle Eastern nations would follow Kuwait and end their currencies' pegs to the dollar.
Total Reserves
Total foreign-exchange reserves increased in the third quarter to $6.04 trillion from $5.72 trillion at the end of June. The figures on currency allocations are based on a smaller total, $3.83 trillion last quarter, because not all central banks agree to identify the breakdown of their reserves.
The British pound's share of foreign exchange reserves rose to 4.7 percent, from 4.6 percent in the second quarter and 4.2 percent in the third quarter of 2006. The yen's third-quarter allocation dropped to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent. The Japanese currency represented 3 percent of reserves a year earlier.
The dollar's share has declined from 71.1 percent in March 1999, while the euro's allocation has climbed from 18.1 percent.
While the dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves is declining, the size of dollar holdings has continued to rise with the gains in total reserves.
The dollar amount climbed to $2.45 trillion in September from $2.08 trillion a year before. The value of euro holdings exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, rising to $1.01 trillion from $765 billion in the third quarter of 2006.
``Small movements in the dollar's share are not very important,'' said Brad Setser, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York who used to work at the U.S. Treasury. ``The real issue is that the amount of dollars held by central banks is rising dramatically.''
Dollar's Decline
The Fed's trade-weighted broad dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency's value against its counterparts from the biggest American trading partners, fell as low as 100.36 in September, the weakest since 1997. Since then, it reached a record low of 97.38 on Nov. 7.
International investors have reduced their holdings of U.S. stocks and bonds since the August credit collapse hammered the values of corporate bonds and securities tied to subprime mortgages. The losses spurred by rising U.S. mortgage defaults caused banks and securities firms worldwide to write off more than $80 billion.
Foreigners were net sellers of long-term U.S. financial assets in the third quarter, U.S. Treasury figures show. Monthly sales averaged $11.8 billion in the period, compared with average net purchases of $64 billion in the previous five years.
In August, when the credit rout sparked concern that banks would curtail lending, leading to a slump in spending that would send the U.S. into recession, foreigners sold a net $40.7 billion of American stocks.
Confidence in Dollar
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke expressed confidence last month that the dollar will keep its mantle as the world's top reserve currency.
``I don't see any significant change in the broad holdings of dollars,'' Bernanke said in answering questions at a Nov. 8 congressional hearing. The dollar ``remains the dominant reserve asset and I expect that to continue to be the case,'' he said.
Paulson defended the dollar in remarks to reporters on Nov. 9, at a time when it had fallen to a record low against the euro and Canadian dollar and the weakest versus Britain's pound since 1981.
``The dollar has been the world's reserve currency since World War II and there's a reason,'' said Paulson, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief executive officer. ``I put the U.S. economy up against any in the world in terms of competitiveness -- that's a fact.''
The IMF calculates foreign exchange reserves in dollars, so the euro's rise against the U.S. currency this year accounts for much of its growing share of central banks' reserves, said Meg Browne, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York and a former economist at the Federal Reserve.
``If you're holding euros, and you don't do anything, your euro holdings are still going to be valued at a higher level,'' Browne said from New York. ``Total U.S. dollar holdings continued to rise. It's not apparent that central banks are diversifying out of dollars.''
Still, the value of euros held by central banks increased 8.6 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, a period when the euro climbed 4.7 percent against the dollar, according to Powell. That suggests a ``real'' gain in euro holdings of about 3.9 percent, he said.
``The dollar diversification story is likely to stay alive through the course of 2008,'' Powell said. ``It's not something that's going to happen overnight. It's a long-term negative for the dollar.''
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK 2008
City experts give us their top predictions
Last Updated: 10:33pm GMT 27/12/2007
SAXO BANK: UK RECESSION TO PROMPT AIR OF 'FORCED SAVINGS' IN A TOUGHER 2008
David Karsbøl, head of strategy, Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank, the Danish online investment bank, issues a cautionary 2008 outlook - warning investors of the end of cheap money, tighter lending conditions, rising inflation and a UK recession ushering in a new mood of "forced savings" for Western consumers.
• Financial outlook 2008
US and Western consumers will have to stop living beyond their means and start saving, for the first time in decades, as rising inflation in 2008 sees the cost of living soar, applying a break on consumption and turning GDP growth negative five quarters after house prices peak.
For the first time since the seventies we are seeing the re-emergence of "stagflation," which means we are seeing a reduction in risk-appetite, rising inflation and slowing GDP growth.
Central Banks are no longer in control of inflation and have kept interest rates artificially low for too long. Now, they have finally taken notice and will need to raise rates in 2008 or risk a decade of high inflation.
With that in mind, GDP growth and consumption will not return to 'normal' until 2012, pushing real long-term interest rates to creep up and unemployment to climb between 80pc-100pc higher than in 2007.
US
The US will be the first country to suffer, with GDP growth tipped to turn negative from the second or third quarter of 2008.
But despite some dire warnings for the US outlook, Saxo Bank, known as an online FX trading bank, predicts the troubled US Dollar will stage a comeback against an "overvalued" Euro in 2008.
The Euro Dollar (EURUSD) will retreat from its current level, to trade at 1.3400 by Q4 2008.
Europe
Europe is forecast to undergo at least one interest rate rise, with the European Central Bank hiking rates to 4.25pc. While all countries that have benefited from a housing boom stand to suffer from the unravelling credit crisis and a drop in house prices, the UK and US are the most vulnerable.
UK
The UK will be very vulnerable throughout 2008 as we expect housing to slow and the effect of pared back bank bonuses start to play out.
We are bearish on the pound, which will be a volatile currency mover throughout the year and weaken to trade at 1.90 against the US Dollar in the second, and again in the fourth quarter.
China
The China bubble that has been the big story since the late 90's will finally and significantly burst in 2008, with the Shanghai Composite index plummeting a colossal 40pc to target 2900 by the year's end.
Japan
One country Saxo Bank tips for a surprise comeback is Japan, which may become the contrarian investment of 2008 after recently undergoing financial sector reforms, seeing an increase in foreign capital in-flow and a rally in home prices and personal consumption.
We believe Japan could stage a comeback in 2008, but we won't buy the Nikkei 225 until it hits 352.
Sectors
Energy and agricultural sectors are tipped to be the strong performers through 2008, with oil predicted to push $175 p/b and wheat, corn and livestock prices rallying on the back of poor supply, higher demand for bio-ethanol products and rising meat demand from Chinese consumers.
Iran says its first atom plant to start in mid-2008
Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:18pm EST
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's first atomic power plant will start operating in mid-2008, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Sunday, two days after the country received a second delivery of nuclear fuel from Russia.
Mottaki also told Iranian media that Tehran wants assurances that the United States will accept the results of the talks before holding a new meeting about ways to end violence in Iraq.
U.S. and Iraqi officials have held three rounds of talks since May on the security situation in Iraq, easing a diplomatic freeze that lasted almost three decades, but Mottaki's remarks suggested Tehran was not satisfied with the outcome so far.
"These negotiations should have a clear agenda and reach clear results, different from before," he said.
Iran and the United States are at odds over who is to blame for the bloodshed in Iraq and are also embroiled in a dispute over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Washington suspects Iran wants to build a bomb, a charge the Islamic state denies.
In a move both Moscow and Washington said should convince Tehran to shut down its disputed uranium enrichment program, Russia delivered the first batch of about 80 tonnes of uranium fuel rods to Iran's Bushehr plant on December 17.
A second delivery arrived 11 days later, Iranian media said.
The head of the Russian company building Bushehr, state-run Atomstroiexport, has been quoted as saying the facility would not be operational until at least the end of next year.
But Mottaki said: "Half of the capacity of the Bushehr nuclear power plant will be inaugurated next summer."
Iran says it still needs to produce nuclear fuel domestically as it wants to build other power plants as part of a planned network with a capacity of 20,000 megawatt by 2020 to satisfy soaring electricity demands. It says it has started to construct a 360 MW plant in the southwestern Khuzestan province.
Enriched uranium can be used for making nuclear fuel and also, if refined much further, provide material for bombs.
Turning to Iraq, Mottaki said Iran had agreed in principle to hold a fourth meeting with U.S. officials. His ministry earlier this month suggested they may be held in early January.
But, Iran "has concerns about the way the other side would cooperate in these talks and also the commitment of the other side to the results," Mottaki said.
Iran had conveyed this to the United States via Iraqi officials and was now waiting for a response.
"The negotiations should take place after the other side (makes a commitment) to accept the results of talks," he said, without elaborating.
Washington accuses Iran of arming and training Shi'ite Muslim militias in Iraq. But U.S. officials have recently softened their rhetoric towards Iran, saying Tehran appears to have cut back its supply of roadside bombs to the militias.
Tehran blames the sectarian violence on the U.S.-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003 and have repeatedly called on Washington to pull out its troops.
(Reporting by Zahra Hosseinian; Writing by Fredrik Dahl; Editing by Sami Aboudi)
2007-12-25
胡星斗：胡锦涛承认中国贫富差距严重失衡
美国一家权威经济调查机构的报告说，中国社会财富总量在2006年保持着惊人的增长速度，但与此同时中国社会的贫富差距正在加大。北京理工大学经济学教授胡星斗认为，中国国家主席胡锦涛实际上承认了中国社会财富分配格局严重失衡的现状。
《新快报》报道，在全球38个国家设有60多家办公室的美国波士顿咨询公司新近公布的《2007年全球财富报告》显示，2006年，中国社会财富总量实现了31.6%的惊人增长。报告说，在过去的5年里，中国管理资产额的平均复合增长达到23.4%，是全球平均水平的3倍。
这份报告预测，在未来五年里，全球财富仍然将保持年均5%的增幅。中国将在这个过程中扮演重要角色。
北京理工大学经济学教授胡星斗说，他每年会关注波士顿咨询公司推出的全球财富年度报告。胡教授认为，2007年度报告对于中国社会财富增长的描述基本客观：“其实中国社会财富增长很快是必然的，因为中国是一个后起的、生机勃勃的国家。中国的现代化，我可以把它分成两个阶段。截至目前，中国发展的重点是增加国家的财富，主要是GDP、经济总量的增长。从现在往后进入第二个阶段。这个阶段主要应该解决国富民穷和收入分配的问题。”
中国国内和国际上一些有关中国收入分配现状的权威统计得出的结论让人难以感到乐观。2006年底，中国青年报在全国青年中做出的一项民调显示，89.3%的中国年轻人认为中国大陆贫富分化的问题可以用“严重”来形容。中国社会科学院在今年出版的《中国社会形势分析与预测》蓝皮书中指出，“收入差距过大、贫富分化”是当前中国执政者面临的最突出的三大社会问题之首。
世界银行去年公布的一项报告说，中国有大约1.3亿人，也就是总人口的十分之一每天收入不足一美元，处于绝对贫困状态。更令人关注的是，世行的统计数字显示，尽管中国经济从2001年后每年都保持了10%左右的高速增长，但是中国最贫穷的十分之一人口实际收入却下降了2.4%。
面对这种情况，中国执政当局近年来在提倡构建“和谐社会”的同时，开始把改革分配制度列入政策选项。在刚刚结束的中共十七大上，中共中央总书记、国家主席胡锦涛首次在党代会上对中国收入分配制度的现状作出了阐述。胡锦涛呼吁“提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重”。
北京理工大学经济学教授胡星斗认为，胡锦涛的上述提法实际上承认了中国社会财富分配格局严重失衡的现状：“中国的工人和农民的收入加在一起，也就只有GDP的15%到20%，国际的平均水平应该在40%到50%。而美国，工资和福利加在一块占GDP的60%。为什么中国工人农民的收入这么低？”
胡星斗指出，在解决贫富差距问题上，中国当局面临的一个主要难题是破除既得利益集团的阻碍，要达成这个目标就必须进行体制上的改革。他说：“人大要真正成为权力中心，要鼓励公民监督，要进行新闻制度改革，保证民众话语权，要改革信访制度，让农民在土地被征用的时候可以上访，而不必担心受到打击；要让工人有代表自己利益的工会。只有这些方面进行改革，财富才可能流向中国民众，中国的贫富差距才可能缩小。”
美国波士顿咨询公司的调查报告认为，中国经济的高速发展以及中国企业家队伍的不断扩大，使中国目前的财富大部分以新增财富的形式出现。报告说，从社会阶层来看，中国财富增长最快的阶层是那些资产超过500万美元的个人。
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