Singapore bourse - What has changed ? Very little. Typically in a consolidation phase, market mood vacillates between positive and negative sentiment. The best time to add positions within a consolidation phase is when sentiment turns negative. The negative news flow from the US, has been the primary reason behind the sell down in Asian bourses. Even so, there is very little indication that suggest that the US indices are about to break down from their own consolidation phases. On the contrary, both the DOW & S&P500 appear relatively resilient and both are above recent lows. Additionally, we see a positive divergence in 2 of the risk premium indicators that we track suggesting that both indices are nearing an important inflexion point.
We expect the same for the STI. Chances are that the 3300 level will hold and the index could head up to 3680 or so within the next 1-2 months. In fact, we think the index will be supported near the 3350-3370 range and stage a bounce over the next 2-3 days. On a worst case, the STI could head down to 3300. We think today would be an opportune time to start adding some long positions. Some of the stocks that we favour are Cosco at $5.50. SembCorp Marine at $4.00, Yangzijiang at $1.86 -1.90, YanLord at $3.08-3.10, Sino Tech Fibre at $0.88-0.90, Sino Enviroment at $2.20-2.24, JES at $0.75-0.76.
Korea posted a US$860 million trade deficit in December of last year, the first deficit in four years and nine months (US$1=W937). Exports in December rose 15.5 percent from a year ago to $33.25 billion, but the nation posted a trade deficit since imports rose 24 percent over the same period. The main reason for the deficit is soaring crude prices. It costs Korea an average $86 to import a barrel of crude. That's up 52 percent in just one year, from $56.5 in December 2006. Monthly spending on oil imports soared by almost $1.9 billion, from $4.69 billion in December 2006 to $6.56 billion last month. In 2007 Korea imported $60 billion worth of crude oil, up $4.1 billion from $55.87 billion in 2006.
In the new year the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange touched a record $100 a barrel during trading. Signs are strong that crude prices will continue to soar this year. Prices of raw materials such as corn, soy beans, wheat and other grains, as well as iron and copper are also continuing to soar. And leading economies are slowing down due to the financial jitters caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
When raw material prices soar and advanced economies slow down, Korea's exports face obstacles. In other words, the December trade deficit may not be a temporary glitch. Domestic consumer prices are also becoming unstable. Consumer prices in December rose 3.6 percent from a year ago, surpassing the Bank of Korea's target parameters of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent. Consumer prices may rise in the 4 percent range this year.
For the government of president-elect Lee Myung-bak, this means a huge burden from the onset. It will be very difficult for him to keep his campaign pledge of achieving 7 percent economic growth and creating 600,000 jobs. The presidential Transition Committee is trying to lower this year's GDP growth target to 6 percent, but even that seems tough to meet.
At a meeting with the heads of economic think-tanks on Wednesday, the president-elect said he would not resort to excessive measures to achieve 7 percent growth. Yet he added that we cannot afford to give up by blaming external conditions. The new government must not be fixated on numbers, but should find out just what it must do in order to boost Korea's economic growth potential.
Indofood - Trading buy opportunity with a target at $2.72
From the intraday chart, we noticed that it established a measured move target of $2.72 after it found its low at $2.26. Intraday MACD triggered a buy signal today, suggesting further high is likely in near term.
Volume for today is strong coupled with a break above the resistance at $2.43, the breakout is deemed to be valid.
We checked with Meghmani's management on the timeframe for the shares (listed in BSE) and SDS (listed in SGX) to be fungible across both exchanges. Management confirmed that shares and SDSs will be 2-way fungible from end June, 2008.
Since the dual-listing of the stock in India last June, Meghmani has been very well received by Indian/international investors. We believe one reason is the broader number of peers in similar agrochemicals/pigments businesses listed there, allowing for better comparison.
The stock price in India has continued to notch new highs, currently sitting at Rp 48/share. This translates to S$0.88/SDS. On the SGX, Meghmani continues to be priced at a steep 48% discount to its India counterpart at the current price of S$0.46.
We believe the odds are good for the valuation gap of the stock between the two exchanges to narrow further.
WORLD ECONOMIC PROSPECTS Stagflation cometh? By Joseph Stiglitz
NEW YORK - THE world economy has had several good years. Global growth has been strong, and the divide between the developing and developed world has narrowed, with India and China leading the way, experiencing GDP growth of 11.1 per cent and 9.7 per cent in 2006 and 11.5 per cent and 8.9 per cent last year, respectively. Even Africa has been doing well, with growth in excess of 5 per cent in 2006 and last year.
But the good times may be ending. There has long been worry over the global imbalances caused by the US’ huge overseas borrowing. The US, in turn, has said the world should be thankful: By living beyond its means, it helped keep the global economy going, especially given high savings rates in Asia, which accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves.
But it was always recognised that America’s growth under President George W. Bush was not sustainable. Now the day of reckoning looms.
America’s ill-conceived war in Iraq has helped fuel a quadrupling of oil prices since 2003. In the 1970s, oil shocks led to inflation in some countries, and to recession elsewhere, as governments raised interest rates to combat rising prices. And some economies faced the worst of both worlds: stagflation.
Until now, three critical factors had helped the world weather soaring oil prices. First, China, with its enormous productivity increases - based on resting on high levels of investment, including investments in education and technology - exported its deflation.
Second, the US took advantage of this by lowering interest rates to unprecedented levels, inducing a housing bubble, with mortgages available to anyone not on a life-support system.
Finally, workers all over the world took it on the chin, accepting lower real wages and a smaller share of GDP.
But now that game is up. China is facing inflationary pressures. What’s more, if the US convinces China to let its currency appreciate, the cost of living in the US and elsewhere will rise.
And, with the rise of biofuels, the food and energy markets have become integrated. Combined with increasing demand from those with higher incomes and lower supplies due to weather-related problems associated with climate change, this means high food prices - a lethal threat to developing countries.
Prospects for America’s consumption binge continuing are also bleak. Even if the US Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, lenders will not rush to enter more bad mortgages. With house prices declining, fewer Americans will be willing and able to continue their profligacy.
The Bush administration is hoping, somehow, to forestall a wave of foreclosures - thereby passing the economy’s problems on to the next president, just as it is doing with the Iraq quagmire. Its chances of succeeding are slim. For America today, the real question is only whether there will be a short, sharp downturn, or a more prolonged, but shallower, slowdown.
Moreover, America has been exporting its problems abroad, not just by selling toxic mortgages and bad financial practices, but through the ever-weakening dollar, in part a result of flawed macro- and micro-policies.
Europe, for instance, will find it increasingly difficult to export. And in a world economy that had rested on the foundations of a ‘strong dollar’, the consequent financial market instability will be costly for all.
At the same time, there has been a massive global redistribution of income from oil importers to oil exporters - a disproportionate number of them undemocratic states - and from workers everywhere to the very rich. It is unclear whether workers will continue to accept declines in their living standards in the name of an unbalanced globalisation whose promises seem ever more elusive. In America, one can feel the backlash mounting.
For those who think a well-managed globalisation has the potential to benefit both developed and developing countries, and who believe in global social justice and the importance of democracy (and the vibrant middle class that supports it), all these developments make for bad news. Economic adjustments of this magnitude are always painful, but the economic pain is even greater today because the winners are less prone to spend.
Indeed, the flip side of ‘a world awash with liquidity’ is a world facing depressed aggregate demand. For the past seven years, America’s unbridled spending filled the gap. Now both US household and government spending is likely to be curbed, as the Republican and Democratic contenders to be the next US president are promising a return to fiscal responsibility.
After seven years in which America has seen its national debt rise from US$5.6 trillion (S$8 trillion) to US$9 trillion, this should be welcome news - but the timing could not be worse.
There is one positive note in this dismal picture: The sources of global growth today are more diverse than they were a decade ago. The real engines of global growth in recent years have been developing countries.
Nevertheless, slower growth - or possibly a recession - in the world’s largest economy inevitably has global consequences. There will be a global slowdown. If the monetary authorities respond appropriately to growing inflationary pressure - recognising that much of it is imported, and not a result of excess domestic demand - we may be able to manage our way through it.
But if they raise interest rates relentlessly to meet inflation targets, we should prepare for the worst: another episode of stagflation.
If central banks go down this path, they will no doubt eventually succeed in wringing inflation out of the system. But the cost - in lost jobs, lost wages, and lost homes - will be enormous.
The writer is a Nobel laureate in economics. His latest book is Making Globalization Work.
TOKYO (AP) - Japanese stock prices plunged Friday to their lowest finish since July 2006, losing ground after jittery trading on Wall Street amid concerns about the U.S. economy and rising oil prices.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock index lost 616.37 points, or 4.03 percent, to finish Friday's half-day session at 14,691.41 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The close was the index's lowest since it posted 14,500.26 points on July 19, 2006.
The TSE had been closed since last Friday for the New Year's holidays. The exchange resumes full-day trading next Monday.
Wall Street closed narrowly mixed Thursday after share prices dropped sharply the previous day on weaker-than-expected data for the U.S. manufacturing sector. Record oil prices that have topped $100 also pressured stocks on worries that higher fuel costs could slow investment, spending and growth.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 12.76, or 0.10 percent, to 13,056.72 Thursday, and crude oil futures set a fresh trading record of $100.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Worries about the economy in the United States _ a key export market for Japanese manufacturers _ as well as the dollar's weakness against the yen sent export-oriented shares down.
Increasing oil and raw material prices also took their toll on exporters while giving commodity stocks a boost.
"High flying blue-chip exporters are going to have a tough time coping with rising commodity prices, a stronger yen and a slowing U.S. economy," said Masanaga Kono, strategist at Societe Generale Asset Management.
Shares of Nissan Motor Co. plunged 9.2 percent, Toyota Motor Corp. finished 4.3 percent lower, Sony Corp. fell 6.6 percent, and Canon Inc. dropped 5 percent.
Tokyo's broader Topix index, which includes all shares on the exchange's first section, lost 63.77 points, or 4.32 percent, to 1,411.91.
In currencies, the U.S. dollar was trading at 108.98 yen Friday morning, down from 109.33 yen late Thursday in New York. The euro rose to $1.4750 from $1.4744.
US Dollars No Longer Accepted at Indian Tourist Sites
NEW DELHI Jan 3, 2008 (AP)
No dollars, just rupees please.
In a sign of how the once mighty U.S. dollar has fallen, India's tourism minister said Thursday that U.S. dollars will no longer be accepted at the country's heritage tourist sites, like the famed Taj Mahal.
For years the dollar was worth about 50 rupees and tourists visiting most sites in India were charged either $5 or 250 rupees.
But with the dollar at a nine-year low against the rupee falling 11 percent in 2007 alone and now hovering at around 39 rupees that deal has become a losing proposition for the tourism industry.
The country's tourism minister said, though, that the decision was only in part a reaction to the currency's plunging value.
"Before the dollar lost its value, there was a demand to have (admission tickets) just in rupees," Tourism Minister Ambika Soni told the CNN-IBN news channel.
Soni said that charging only rupees would not only be more practical, but would save money because "the dollar was weaker against the rupee."
The Taj Mahal, India's famed white marble monument to love, which had charged tourists $15 or 750 rupees, has been refusing to accept dollars since November.
The move makes visits pricier for American tourists, who now have to shell out nearly $20.
And it's likely to get worse.
"We expect a slight appreciation of the rupee to continue, although it won't be as dramatic as last year," said Agam Gupta, head of foreign exchange trading at Standard Chartered Bank in India.
The dollar has fallen against most major currencies, and it has lost ground against the rupee due to an influx of foreign capital into India, said Gupta.
Soni said she was not worried about the decision affecting tourism numbers as India provided more than just budget attractions.
"I always say it's not numbers I am looking for or working for. I am working for tourists to have a complete experience," she said.
SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Plantation firms such as First Resources and Indofood Agri Resources soared as palm oil prices hit a new record, raising investor hopes of greater profits, dealers said.
Malaysian crude palm oil futures climbed to a new high on Thursday tracking record soybean oil and crude oil prices.
"High palm oil prices is the reason for the continued interest in these stocks," said a local dealer.
Shares of Indonesian palm oil producer First Resources jumped as much as 13.6 percent to a record high of S$1.42 and was the third most actively traded counter on the Singapore bourse with 37.5 million shares changing hands.
Indofood Agri Resources was 8.7 percent up to a 3-week high of S$2.62 with 5.6 million shares traded. Wilmar International also rose as much as 1.9 percent to S$5.29 with 4.4 million shares changing hands.
Singapore's celebrity Jimmy Nah, who is better known as MC King, has passed away suddenly. He was 40 years old.
His friends told MediaCorp Radio that Jimmy had experienced breathing difficulties while at home earlier Friday. He was sent to hospital but died shortly after 1pm.
It is not known if Jimmy had suffered from any health problems. But in the last entry he posted on his blog on 31 December, Jimmy had hoped for good health in the coming year.
Local director Jack Neo, who had worked with Jimmy on several productions, said he was shocked upon hearing the news.
"All along, he's very, very healthy. So, I don't know why. I seriously don't know why," said Jack Neo.
Jimmy had acted in a couple of local movies, including Neo's "Just Follow Law", as well as local drama serials. - 938LIVE.
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SAF officer dies after 1.2km run
3 January 2008
A 41-YEAR-OLD Singapore Army officer, Major Tan Yit Guan, died yesterday morning after completing a run at Kranji Camp.
Maj Tan, a logistics officer, was talking with his colleagues after completing a 1.2km self-paced run when he collapsed at 8.20am, said a Defence Ministry statement.
In a self-paced run, the runner completes the stipulated distance at a pace he is comfortable with.
According to Mindef, Maj Tan was given prompt medical attention and taken to the National University Hospital at about 8.45am. Efforts by the Singapore Armed Forces medical team to resuscitate him en route were unsuccessful and he was pronounced dead at 9.30am at the hospital.
As Mindef and the SAF investigate the incident, Singapore Heart Foundation chairman Low Lip Ping told The Straits Times that not all cases of sudden death may be linked to heart failure. For instance, a stroke could cause a person to collapse and die suddenly.
Dr Low said sudden cardiac death alone claims about one life in Singapore every day.
Mindef and the SAF will be assisting Maj Tan’s family in their time of loss.
A Chinese government think-tank has warned that rising food and property prices are causing discontent among a majority of the country's urban poor.
The rare admission comes in a report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which also estimates that 1m recent graduates are still unemployed.
Low-income city dwellers and rural farmers are struggling to make ends meet, the report says.
But, it says, 700m rural peasants have benefited from increased crop prices.
The academy has been producing such reports for 16 years but according to Shirong Chen, the BBC's China Editor, the admission that the majority of urban residents are dissatisfied with life is a new development.
The authors of the report say this dissatisfaction is due to rising food and property prices which reached 10% in some cities towards the end of last year.
Analysts say that food prices have risen, in part, because production in the countryside has not been able to keep up with the demand coming from increasingly wealthy cities.
While the rising cost has been good news for farmers, the authorities fear it could cause social unrest in cities as salaries fail to rise in proportion.
Graduates unemployed
The report also warned that 20% of people who graduated from Chinese universities in 2007 had yet to find a job.
This is of particular concern for the authorities as a million well-educated but unemployed people would be in position to spread social discontent.
Yang Yiyong, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission's Socio-Economic Research Institute, said that graduate unemployment was due to problems with the higher education system, not the students themselves.
Students are expected to learn their subject by rote, which, Mr Yang said, meant they had no entrepreneurial spirit.
"We need to change it to put more emphasis on creative education," he told Reuters news agency.
Shirong Chen said that as China geared up for the summer Olympics, it hoped to present an image of a harmonious society to the outside world.
The report, he said, showed that this was a long way off.
The man behind the record rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel was a lone trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, market watchers say.
A single trader bid up the price by buying a modest lot and then sold it immediately at a loss, they claim.
The New York Mercantile Exchange said that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures on Wednesday.
Some analysts questioned the validity of the trade, though their concerns faded as oil set a record on Thursday.
New York light sweet crude climbed to a new high of $100.05 a barrel on Thursday.
Vanity trade
On Wednesday, one floor trader bought 1,000 barrels, the smallest amount permitted, and sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss, said Stephen Schork, a former floor trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the editor of an oil market newsletter.
"They absolutely overpaid," he told Radio Four's Today Programme.
"He paid $600 for the right to tell his grandchildren that he was the first in the world to buy $100 oil."
Most trading in energy futures has shifted away from the trading floor and takes place on electronic platforms.
The NYMEX, along with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is one of the last bastions of "open outcry", where traders use frantic hand signals to trade securities.
In London, open outcry trading still takes place on the London Metal Exchange, where aluminium, copper and zinc are traded.
The supporters of electronic trading claim that it is faster, cheaper, more efficient for users, and less prone to manipulation by market makers.
The dwindling liquidity on the NYMEX trading floor has led to considerable speculation that the exchange will soon shut down the trading floor to cut costs.
'Spam king' charged with manipulating Chinese stock prices
DETROIT - A MAN described as one of America's most prolific senders of spam e-mail was among 11 people accused in an indictment unsealed of defrauding people by manipulating Chinese stock prices.
Alan Ralsky, 52, of suburban West Bloomfield Township, made about US$3 million (S$4.29 million) through the scheme in summer 2005 alone, US Attorney Stephen Murphy said on Thursday.
Federal agents seized computers, computer disks and financial records in a raid on Ralsky's home in September 2005. But Ralsky, who said at the time that he had gathered at least 150 million e-mail addresses, was not arrested then.
In a 41-count indictment, Ralsky and the other defendants sent tens of millions of e-mail messages to computers worldwide, trying to inflate prices for Chinese penny stocks. The defendants then sold the stocks at inflated prices, Mr Murphy said.
The defendants used a variety of illegal methods 'that evaded spam-blocking devices and tricked recipients into opening, and acting on, advertisements in the spam,' Mr Murphy said in a news release.
The indictment also alleges that the defendants tried to send spam using 'botnets' - networks of computers that have been infected with malicious software coding that in turn would instruct infected computers to relay spam, the release said.
'A lot of people don't ignore or delete spam,' Mr Murphy told reporters.
'Unsuspecting people can be duped ... that they were looking at legitimate stock tips.' -- AP
13 comments:
Singapore bourse - What has changed ? Very little. Typically in a consolidation phase, market mood vacillates between positive and negative sentiment. The best time to add positions within a consolidation phase is when sentiment turns negative. The negative news flow from the US, has been the primary reason behind the sell down in Asian bourses. Even so, there is very little indication that suggest that the US indices are about to break down from their own consolidation phases. On the contrary, both the DOW & S&P500 appear relatively resilient and both are above recent lows. Additionally, we see a positive divergence in 2 of the risk premium indicators that we track suggesting that both indices are nearing an important inflexion point.
We expect the same for the STI. Chances are that the 3300 level will hold and the index could head up to 3680 or so within the next 1-2 months. In fact, we think the index will be supported near the 3350-3370 range and stage a bounce over the next 2-3 days. On a worst case, the STI could head down to 3300. We think today would be an opportune time to start adding some long positions. Some of the stocks that we favour are Cosco at $5.50. SembCorp Marine at $4.00, Yangzijiang at $1.86 -1.90, YanLord at $3.08-3.10, Sino Tech Fibre at $0.88-0.90, Sino Enviroment at $2.20-2.24, JES at $0.75-0.76.
Best Regards
K Ajith
Is Trade Deficit a Sign of Worse to Come?
Jan.4,2008 10:18 KST
Korea posted a US$860 million trade deficit in December of last year, the first deficit in four years and nine months (US$1=W937). Exports in December rose 15.5 percent from a year ago to $33.25 billion, but the nation posted a trade deficit since imports rose 24 percent over the same period.
The main reason for the deficit is soaring crude prices. It costs Korea an average $86 to import a barrel of crude. That's up 52 percent in just one year, from $56.5 in December 2006. Monthly spending on oil imports soared by almost $1.9 billion, from $4.69 billion in December 2006 to $6.56 billion last month. In 2007 Korea imported $60 billion worth of crude oil, up $4.1 billion from $55.87 billion in 2006.
In the new year the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange touched a record $100 a barrel during trading. Signs are strong that crude prices will continue to soar this year. Prices of raw materials such as corn, soy beans, wheat and other grains, as well as iron and copper are also continuing to soar. And leading economies are slowing down due to the financial jitters caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
When raw material prices soar and advanced economies slow down, Korea's exports face obstacles. In other words, the December trade deficit may not be a temporary glitch. Domestic consumer prices are also becoming unstable. Consumer prices in December rose 3.6 percent from a year ago, surpassing the Bank of Korea's target parameters of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent. Consumer prices may rise in the 4 percent range this year.
For the government of president-elect Lee Myung-bak, this means a huge burden from the onset. It will be very difficult for him to keep his campaign pledge of achieving 7 percent economic growth and creating 600,000 jobs. The presidential Transition Committee is trying to lower this year's GDP growth target to 6 percent, but even that seems tough to meet.
At a meeting with the heads of economic think-tanks on Wednesday, the president-elect said he would not resort to excessive measures to achieve 7 percent growth. Yet he added that we cannot afford to give up by blaming external conditions. The new government must not be fixated on numbers, but should find out just what it must do in order to boost Korea's economic growth potential.
Below is the technical call for Indofood.
Indofood - Trading buy opportunity with a target at $2.72
From the intraday chart, we noticed that it established a measured move target of $2.72 after it found its low at $2.26. Intraday MACD triggered a buy signal today, suggesting further high is likely in near term.
Volume for today is strong coupled with a break above the resistance at $2.43, the breakout is deemed to be valid.
Cut loss at $2.40.
Update on Meghmani - Kelive
We checked with Meghmani's management on the timeframe for the shares (listed in BSE) and SDS (listed in SGX) to be fungible across both exchanges. Management confirmed that shares and SDSs will be 2-way fungible from end June, 2008.
Since the dual-listing of the stock in India last June, Meghmani has been very well received by Indian/international investors. We believe one reason is the broader number of peers in similar agrochemicals/pigments businesses listed there, allowing for better comparison.
The stock price in India has continued to notch new highs, currently sitting at Rp 48/share. This translates to S$0.88/SDS. On the SGX, Meghmani continues to be priced at a steep 48% discount to its India counterpart at the current price of S$0.46.
We believe the odds are good for the valuation gap of the stock between the two exchanges to narrow further.
曾淵滄：東航事件越搞越複雜
2008-01-04
恒指繼續下跌，26000點依然是關鍵位，最近一次的雙底反彈，僅反彈2000點就無力再上，短期壓力不小。近來，不少股評人都說現在是炒股不炒市，因為儘管恒指下跌，當炒的幾隻股仍然在炒，逆市上升，有膽量的話，逆市上升的股是可以追的，因為大戶要在大市往下跌、人人驚慌沽貨的同時把股價炒上，用的錢不少，可見莊家財源充沛。東方航空（670）股價狂跌，因為下星期開股東大會，新加坡航空與淡馬錫是不是能成功入股東方航空成疑問。開始的時候，東航用了很長的時間與新航及淡馬錫談入股的事，也許，談判時間的確太長了，這段時間，整體股市上漲了，結果，談判成功公佈的時候，東航股價猛漲，接着，市場傳出國航（753）與國泰（293）會出更高價收購東航，這使到這兩家航空公司的股價也上漲，特別是國航，更是一飛沖天。但是，很快的，國泰公開說不會收購東航，國航則一直不表態會不會收購，但一直公開表示反對新股入股東航。
股價可能打回原形
現在，情況越來越複雜，國航董事長李家祥升了官，當了中國民航總局局長，當了局長的李家祥考慮問題時，着眼點是整體利益。到底是整個中國的利益，還是國航的利益？沒人知道，市場則傳出國航的母公司中航集團願意出價每股5元來收購東航，比新航出的價3.8元高許多。國航出5元收購東航，對東航小股東而言，是不是更有利？表面上看的確是更有利，因為東航可以收到更多錢，增加東航的現金與淨資產值，新航3.8元的收購價的確是低過市價，會分薄東航將來利潤的作用。但是，市場是最有力的問題解答者，昨日東航股價急跌11%，國航也下跌7.8%。這是很有趣的現象，為甚麼中航出價更高，東航的股價不受惠？更連累國航？原因是新航付的3.8元不是付給小股東，傳聞中中航出的5元也不是付給小股東，東航股價在新航宣佈入股前還不足3元，若入股之事告吹，東航股價打回原形的可能性是存在的，或者頂多升一倍，國航在新航入股東航消息公佈後，股價也是升一倍左右。
WORLD ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
Stagflation cometh?
By Joseph Stiglitz
NEW YORK - THE world economy has had several good years. Global growth has been strong, and the divide between the developing and developed world has narrowed, with India and China leading the way, experiencing GDP growth of 11.1 per cent and 9.7 per cent in 2006 and 11.5 per cent and 8.9 per cent last year, respectively. Even Africa has been doing well, with growth in excess of 5 per cent in 2006 and last year.
But the good times may be ending. There has long been worry over the global imbalances caused by the US’ huge overseas borrowing. The US, in turn, has said the world should be thankful: By living beyond its means, it helped keep the global economy going, especially given high savings rates in Asia, which accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves.
But it was always recognised that America’s growth under President George W. Bush was not sustainable. Now the day of reckoning looms.
America’s ill-conceived war in Iraq has helped fuel a quadrupling of oil prices since 2003. In the 1970s, oil shocks led to inflation in some countries, and to recession elsewhere, as governments raised interest rates to combat rising prices. And some economies faced the worst of both worlds: stagflation.
Until now, three critical factors had helped the world weather soaring oil prices. First, China, with its enormous productivity increases - based on resting on high levels of investment, including investments in education and technology - exported its deflation.
Second, the US took advantage of this by lowering interest rates to unprecedented levels, inducing a housing bubble, with mortgages available to anyone not on a life-support system.
Finally, workers all over the world took it on the chin, accepting lower real wages and a smaller share of GDP.
But now that game is up. China is facing inflationary pressures. What’s more, if the US convinces China to let its currency appreciate, the cost of living in the US and elsewhere will rise.
And, with the rise of biofuels, the food and energy markets have become integrated. Combined with increasing demand from those with higher incomes and lower supplies due to weather-related problems associated with climate change, this means high food prices - a lethal threat to developing countries.
Prospects for America’s consumption binge continuing are also bleak. Even if the US Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, lenders will not rush to enter more bad mortgages. With house prices declining, fewer Americans will be willing and able to continue their profligacy.
The Bush administration is hoping, somehow, to forestall a wave of foreclosures - thereby passing the economy’s problems on to the next president, just as it is doing with the Iraq quagmire. Its chances of succeeding are slim. For America today, the real question is only whether there will be a short, sharp downturn, or a more prolonged, but shallower, slowdown.
Moreover, America has been exporting its problems abroad, not just by selling toxic mortgages and bad financial practices, but through the ever-weakening dollar, in part a result of flawed macro- and micro-policies.
Europe, for instance, will find it increasingly difficult to export. And in a world economy that had rested on the foundations of a ‘strong dollar’, the consequent financial market instability will be costly for all.
At the same time, there has been a massive global redistribution of income from oil importers to oil exporters - a disproportionate number of them undemocratic states - and from workers everywhere to the very rich. It is unclear whether workers will continue to accept declines in their living standards in the name of an unbalanced globalisation whose promises seem ever more elusive. In America, one can feel the backlash mounting.
For those who think a well-managed globalisation has the potential to benefit both developed and developing countries, and who believe in global social justice and the importance of democracy (and the vibrant middle class that supports it), all these developments make for bad news. Economic adjustments of this magnitude are always painful, but the economic pain is even greater today because the winners are less prone to spend.
Indeed, the flip side of ‘a world awash with liquidity’ is a world facing depressed aggregate demand. For the past seven years, America’s unbridled spending filled the gap. Now both US household and government spending is likely to be curbed, as the Republican and Democratic contenders to be the next US president are promising a return to fiscal responsibility.
After seven years in which America has seen its national debt rise from US$5.6 trillion (S$8 trillion) to US$9 trillion, this should be welcome news - but the timing could not be worse.
There is one positive note in this dismal picture: The sources of global growth today are more diverse than they were a decade ago. The real engines of global growth in recent years have been developing countries.
Nevertheless, slower growth - or possibly a recession - in the world’s largest economy inevitably has global consequences. There will be a global slowdown. If the monetary authorities respond appropriately to growing inflationary pressure - recognising that much of it is imported, and not a result of excess domestic demand - we may be able to manage our way through it.
But if they raise interest rates relentlessly to meet inflation targets, we should prepare for the worst: another episode of stagflation.
If central banks go down this path, they will no doubt eventually succeed in wringing inflation out of the system. But the cost - in lost jobs, lost wages, and lost homes - will be enormous.
The writer is a Nobel laureate in economics. His latest book is Making Globalization Work.
Japan Stocks Fall to 1 1/2 Year Low
TOKYO (AP) - Japanese stock prices plunged Friday to their lowest finish since July 2006, losing ground after jittery trading on Wall Street amid concerns about the U.S. economy and rising oil prices.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock index lost 616.37 points, or 4.03 percent, to finish Friday's half-day session at 14,691.41 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The close was the index's lowest since it posted 14,500.26 points on July 19, 2006.
The TSE had been closed since last Friday for the New Year's holidays. The exchange resumes full-day trading next Monday.
Wall Street closed narrowly mixed Thursday after share prices dropped sharply the previous day on weaker-than-expected data for the U.S. manufacturing sector. Record oil prices that have topped $100 also pressured stocks on worries that higher fuel costs could slow investment, spending and growth.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 12.76, or 0.10 percent, to 13,056.72 Thursday, and crude oil futures set a fresh trading record of $100.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Worries about the economy in the United States _ a key export market for Japanese manufacturers _ as well as the dollar's weakness against the yen sent export-oriented shares down.
Increasing oil and raw material prices also took their toll on exporters while giving commodity stocks a boost.
"High flying blue-chip exporters are going to have a tough time coping with rising commodity prices, a stronger yen and a slowing U.S. economy," said Masanaga Kono, strategist at Societe Generale Asset Management.
Shares of Nissan Motor Co. plunged 9.2 percent, Toyota Motor Corp. finished 4.3 percent lower, Sony Corp. fell 6.6 percent, and Canon Inc. dropped 5 percent.
Tokyo's broader Topix index, which includes all shares on the exchange's first section, lost 63.77 points, or 4.32 percent, to 1,411.91.
In currencies, the U.S. dollar was trading at 108.98 yen Friday morning, down from 109.33 yen late Thursday in New York. The euro rose to $1.4750 from $1.4744.
US Dollars No Longer Accepted at Indian Tourist Sites
NEW DELHI Jan 3, 2008 (AP)
No dollars, just rupees please.
In a sign of how the once mighty U.S. dollar has fallen, India's tourism minister said Thursday that U.S. dollars will no longer be accepted at the country's heritage tourist sites, like the famed Taj Mahal.
For years the dollar was worth about 50 rupees and tourists visiting most sites in India were charged either $5 or 250 rupees.
But with the dollar at a nine-year low against the rupee falling 11 percent in 2007 alone and now hovering at around 39 rupees that deal has become a losing proposition for the tourism industry.
The country's tourism minister said, though, that the decision was only in part a reaction to the currency's plunging value.
"Before the dollar lost its value, there was a demand to have (admission tickets) just in rupees," Tourism Minister Ambika Soni told the CNN-IBN news channel.
Soni said that charging only rupees would not only be more practical, but would save money because "the dollar was weaker against the rupee."
The Taj Mahal, India's famed white marble monument to love, which had charged tourists $15 or 750 rupees, has been refusing to accept dollars since November.
The move makes visits pricier for American tourists, who now have to shell out nearly $20.
And it's likely to get worse.
"We expect a slight appreciation of the rupee to continue, although it won't be as dramatic as last year," said Agam Gupta, head of foreign exchange trading at Standard Chartered Bank in India.
The dollar has fallen against most major currencies, and it has lost ground against the rupee due to an influx of foreign capital into India, said Gupta.
Soni said she was not worried about the decision affecting tourism numbers as India provided more than just budget attractions.
"I always say it's not numbers I am looking for or working for. I am working for tourists to have a complete experience," she said.
SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Plantation firms such as First Resources and Indofood Agri Resources soared as palm oil prices hit a new record, raising investor hopes of greater profits, dealers said.
Malaysian crude palm oil futures climbed to a new high on Thursday tracking record soybean oil and crude oil prices.
"High palm oil prices is the reason for the continued interest in these stocks," said a local dealer.
Shares of Indonesian palm oil producer First Resources jumped as much as 13.6 percent to a record high of S$1.42 and was the third most actively traded counter on the Singapore bourse with 37.5 million shares changing hands.
Indofood Agri Resources was 8.7 percent up to a 3-week high of S$2.62 with 5.6 million shares traded. Wilmar International also rose as much as 1.9 percent to S$5.29 with 4.4 million shares changing hands.
突然倒下，离奇爆毙...是脑溢血?
Singapore's celebrity, Jimmy Nah, dead at 40
4 January 2008
Singapore's celebrity Jimmy Nah, who is better known as MC King, has passed away suddenly. He was 40 years old.
His friends told MediaCorp Radio that Jimmy had experienced breathing difficulties while at home earlier Friday. He was sent to hospital but died shortly after 1pm.
It is not known if Jimmy had suffered from any health problems. But in the last entry he posted on his blog on 31 December, Jimmy had hoped for good health in the coming year.
Local director Jack Neo, who had worked with Jimmy on several productions, said he was shocked upon hearing the news.
"All along, he's very, very healthy. So, I don't know why. I seriously don't know why," said Jack Neo.
Jimmy had acted in a couple of local movies, including Neo's "Just Follow Law", as well as local drama serials. - 938LIVE.
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SAF officer dies after 1.2km run
3 January 2008
A 41-YEAR-OLD Singapore Army officer, Major Tan Yit Guan, died yesterday morning after completing a run at Kranji Camp.
Maj Tan, a logistics officer, was talking with his colleagues after completing a 1.2km self-paced run when he collapsed at 8.20am, said a Defence Ministry statement.
In a self-paced run, the runner completes the stipulated distance at a pace he is comfortable with.
According to Mindef, Maj Tan was given prompt medical attention and taken to the National University Hospital at about 8.45am. Efforts by the Singapore Armed Forces medical team to resuscitate him en route were unsuccessful and he was pronounced dead at 9.30am at the hospital.
As Mindef and the SAF investigate the incident, Singapore Heart Foundation chairman Low Lip Ping told The Straits Times that not all cases of sudden death may be linked to heart failure. For instance, a stroke could cause a person to collapse and die suddenly.
Dr Low said sudden cardiac death alone claims about one life in Singapore every day.
Mindef and the SAF will be assisting Maj Tan’s family in their time of loss.
Discontent 'grips Chinese cities'
A Chinese government think-tank has warned that rising food and property prices are causing discontent among a majority of the country's urban poor.
The rare admission comes in a report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which also estimates that 1m recent graduates are still unemployed.
Low-income city dwellers and rural farmers are struggling to make ends meet, the report says.
But, it says, 700m rural peasants have benefited from increased crop prices.
The academy has been producing such reports for 16 years but according to Shirong Chen, the BBC's China Editor, the admission that the majority of urban residents are dissatisfied with life is a new development.
The authors of the report say this dissatisfaction is due to rising food and property prices which reached 10% in some cities towards the end of last year.
Analysts say that food prices have risen, in part, because production in the countryside has not been able to keep up with the demand coming from increasingly wealthy cities.
While the rising cost has been good news for farmers, the authorities fear it could cause social unrest in cities as salaries fail to rise in proportion.
Graduates unemployed
The report also warned that 20% of people who graduated from Chinese universities in 2007 had yet to find a job.
This is of particular concern for the authorities as a million well-educated but unemployed people would be in position to spread social discontent.
Yang Yiyong, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission's Socio-Economic Research Institute, said that graduate unemployment was due to problems with the higher education system, not the students themselves.
Students are expected to learn their subject by rote, which, Mr Yang said, meant they had no entrepreneurial spirit.
"We need to change it to put more emphasis on creative education," he told Reuters news agency.
Shirong Chen said that as China geared up for the summer Olympics, it hoped to present an image of a harmonious society to the outside world.
The report, he said, showed that this was a long way off.
Single trader behind oil record
The man behind the record rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel was a lone trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, market watchers say.
A single trader bid up the price by buying a modest lot and then sold it immediately at a loss, they claim.
The New York Mercantile Exchange said that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures on Wednesday.
Some analysts questioned the validity of the trade, though their concerns faded as oil set a record on Thursday.
New York light sweet crude climbed to a new high of $100.05 a barrel on Thursday.
Vanity trade
On Wednesday, one floor trader bought 1,000 barrels, the smallest amount permitted, and sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss, said Stephen Schork, a former floor trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the editor of an oil market newsletter.
"They absolutely overpaid," he told Radio Four's Today Programme.
"He paid $600 for the right to tell his grandchildren that he was the first in the world to buy $100 oil."
Most trading in energy futures has shifted away from the trading floor and takes place on electronic platforms.
The NYMEX, along with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is one of the last bastions of "open outcry", where traders use frantic hand signals to trade securities.
In London, open outcry trading still takes place on the London Metal Exchange, where aluminium, copper and zinc are traded.
The supporters of electronic trading claim that it is faster, cheaper, more efficient for users, and less prone to manipulation by market makers.
The dwindling liquidity on the NYMEX trading floor has led to considerable speculation that the exchange will soon shut down the trading floor to cut costs.
'Spam king' charged with manipulating Chinese stock prices
DETROIT - A MAN described as one of America's most prolific senders of spam e-mail was among 11 people accused in an indictment unsealed of defrauding people by manipulating Chinese stock prices.
Alan Ralsky, 52, of suburban West Bloomfield Township, made about US$3 million (S$4.29 million) through the scheme in summer 2005 alone, US Attorney Stephen Murphy said on Thursday.
Federal agents seized computers, computer disks and financial records in a raid on Ralsky's home in September 2005. But Ralsky, who said at the time that he had gathered at least 150 million e-mail addresses, was not arrested then.
In a 41-count indictment, Ralsky and the other defendants sent tens of millions of e-mail messages to computers worldwide, trying to inflate prices for Chinese penny stocks. The defendants then sold the stocks at inflated prices, Mr Murphy said.
The defendants used a variety of illegal methods 'that evaded spam-blocking devices and tricked recipients into opening, and acting on, advertisements in the spam,' Mr Murphy said in a news release.
The indictment also alleges that the defendants tried to send spam using 'botnets' - networks of computers that have been infected with malicious software coding that in turn would instruct infected computers to relay spam, the release said.
'A lot of people don't ignore or delete spam,' Mr Murphy told reporters.
'Unsuspecting people can be duped ... that they were looking at legitimate stock tips.' -- AP
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