China Raises Interest Rates to Nine-Year High to Cool Inflation
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China raised interest rates for a sixth time this year to cool decade-high inflation in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
The benchmark one-year lending rate will increase to 7.47 percent, a nine-year high, from 7.29 percent, starting tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said today on its Web site. The one- year deposit rate will rise to 4.14 percent from 3.87 percent.
Chinese households’ concern about inflation is at the highest level since a survey began in 1999, the central bank said today. The larger increase in the deposit rate may encourage investors to keep their money in the bank, after house prices rose at the fastest pace since 2005 and the main stock index more than doubled this year.
Monetary policy is ‘‘not tight enough yet and there will be more measures coming,’’ said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
Consumer prices climbed 6.9 percent in November from a year earlier, the quickest pace since December 1996, on fuel and food costs. Producer prices jumped 4.6 percent, the biggest increase in more than two years.
China should let its currency appreciate, given ‘‘mounting inflation, growing asset bubbles and possible overheating,’’ U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said this month.
The yuan has gained more than 12 percent against the U.S. dollar since the end of a peg in July 2005.
Stronger Currency
A stronger Chinese currency would help cool inflation by lowering import costs and slowing money inflows from the trade surplus by pushing up export prices. The trade surplus surged 52.2 percent in the first 11 months of 2007 from a year earlier to $238.1 billion.
In addition to interest rates, the People’s Bank of China has sold bills to absorb cash and raised the proportion of deposits lenders must hold as reserves to 14.5 percent from 9 percent at the start of this year.
‘‘Raising the reserve requirement has become more symbolic than substantial,’’ said Kevin Lai, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. ‘‘At the end of the day, the root cause is the trade surplus. China needs a one-off currency revaluation to reduce inflation and liquidity inflows.’’
House prices in 70 major cities jumped 10.5 percent in November from a year earlier.
China’s economy, the world’s fourth largest, expanded 11.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier.
Growth is likely to slow to 10.5 percent in 2008 from 11.4 percent this year on tightening measures, the Asian Development Bank said this month. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development forecasts a decline to a 10.7 percent pace on reduced demand for exports.
Not so long ago, Wall Street banks were recapitalizing insolvent Chinese state-owned financial institutions as well as leading companies in the state-controlled economy.
Now the money is beginning to flow the other way, as evidenced by the $5 billion bailout of Morgan Stanley by a Chinese government-owned fund, China Investment Corp., that was announced Wednesday.
Exactly a decade ago, Morgan Stanley became the first Wall Street bank to gain a foothold in China, taking a 34% stake in the first investment bank set up in China, the government-controlled China International Capital Corp., known as CICC.
In subsequent years, despite well-publicized power-sharing problems between Morgan and CICC’s state controllers, it has benefited from the relationship, securing a leading advisory role in billions of dollars worth of offshore initial public offerings by Chinese companies. It also has invested in the country through a private-equity fund.
Morgan Stanley is the top player in China’s fast-growing investment banking business with a 10.4% market share, garnering $690 million in net revenue in the seven years since 2000, compared to its No. 5 position globally with a 5.9% market share, according to Dealogic.
With its capital injection from China Investment Corp., or CIC--the new government agency responsible for investing $200 billion of the country’s $1.4 billion in foreign currency reserves--the one-way money flow from Wall Street has been reversed.
It follows on the heels of a deal struck in October by Bear Stearns, a small investment banking player in China, in which it replenished its depleted capital by forging a cross-shareholding alliance with China’s CITIC.
The Chinese government is assuming a dual relationship with Morgan: It will be the second-largest shareholder after State Street while remaining one of its largest customers, which could pose a conflict of interest for Morgan in its future dealings with China.
The structure of the Chinese investment in Morgan appears aimed to stave off that concern. CIC will not gain a seat on Morgan’s board, content to be a passive shareholder, earning a rich annual interest rate of 9% on bonds that will be convertible into stock in 2010.
By capping the stake at no more than 9.9%, the investment would also avoid a foreign investment review in Washington.
CIC paid $3 billion for a 9.9% stake in the American buyout firm Blackstone prior to its June 22 IPO at the height of the private-equity boom; the slide in Blackstone's share price since has translated into paper losses for the Chinese fund and criticism in the press.
It can only hope that it is being savvier with its aggressive investment in the loss-hit U.S. investment bank.
On the Blackstone deal, a commentator for Shanghai’s popular Xining Evening News expressed wry amazement at the prospect of an American financial institution pledging to recycle Chinese capital in China, comparable to China’s purchasing of American Treasury bills with the proceeds from its exports to the U.S.
Morgan’s future moves in China will not escape similar cynical scrutiny.
WSJA(12/20)Heard In China:Shipbuilder Lures Wave Of Investors
(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA) By Kirsty Green
Singapore -- SINCE GETTING LISTED in Singapore in April, China-based Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) has drawn a wave of investors as a play on the hot Chinese economy and boom-times in the business. Next month, its shares join a revamped Straits Times Index, which could boost long-term interest in the company.
Yangzijiang certainly hasn't been immune to a broad market selloff, sparked by U.S. economic jitters, that has hit Singapore's China stocks hard. Yesterday, the share-price slid 3.1% to S$1.85 (US$1.27). That is 32% below its S$2.74 peak close on Oct. 18.
With that tumble, many analysts think Yangzijiang is attractively valued. They say its ratio of 2008 price-earnings level to earnings growth is lower than that of Singapore-listed peer Cosco Corp. (Singapore), a unit of giant China Ocean Shipping Group. And they like the fundamentals of Yangzijiang, China's largest nonstate-run shipbuilder by order book.
Last month, the company reported a 68% rise in third-quarter net profit from a year earlier to 224.7 million yuan (US$30.4 million) -- 30% above DBS Vickers's expectation. During November, according to the company, it secured US$204 million of contracts in November, taking its order book to US$5.7 billion.
"With these new orders, they have visibility until 2011 in terms of revenue," says DBS Vickers analyst Ho Pei Hwa, who has a "buy" and a S$3.04 12-month price target on the stock.
Of course, there isn't visibility on the global economy, and any substantial economic slowdown would affect shipbuilders. But many analysts believe that with a continuing shortage of vessels, shipyards should stay busy in coming years.
Like many shipbuilders, Yangzijiang is expanding to meet surging demand for carriers of fuel and raw materials, partly driven by China. Ship operators, keen to make the most of the robust freight rate environment, are ordering vessels they will receive years from now.
Yangzijiang, founded more than 50 years ago, picked Singapore to list in part because it is a center for marine stocks. The company offered shares on Singapore's second board at 95 Singapore cents each. At yesterday's close, the stock is 38% above its level on April 18, its first day of trading. Over the same period, the Straits Times Index has declined 1.3%.
Now, the Singapore stock market is relaunching its main benchmark, the Straits Times Index, to boost credibility with global investors, through a switch to the FTSE's selection criteria. The new index, which kicks off Jan. 10, will comprise 30 leading blue-chip companies ranked by market capitalization; Yangzijiang's market cap is about S$4 billion. The same day will see the debut of the FTSE ST China index, a China-play index made up of companies listed in Singapore that have a significant proportion of Chinese ownership.
"Some funds track whatever goes into the benchmark indices," says fund manager Nicholas Yeo at Aberdeen Asset Management.
As part of the new FTSE ST China index, Yangzijiang could also attract from China's Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor funds, which can invest in certain overseas-listed companies.
"If QDII funds do flow into Singapore, they will probably end up in larger, more liquid stocks like Yangzijiang," says Credit Suisse analyst Haider Ali, who on Nov. 30 began coverage of Yangzijiang with an "outperform" rating and a 12-month target of S$2.45.
Mr. Yeo says the index's inclusion of Yangzijiang "will provide initial interest, but it's about the fundamentals after that."
Based on Credit Suisse forecasts, Yangzijiang trades at 18 times its projected 2008 earnings, while Cosco is about 21 times and Keppel Corp. of Singapore, which has more rig-building than shipbuilding intrests, 13.5 times. Credit Suisse expects Yangzijiang's earnings to more than double next year, while Cosco's would increase 86% and those of Keppel rise 15%.
With its big order book, Yangzijiang will be under pressure to handle a steep ramp-up in deliveries. There are also risks outside the company's control, such as raw-materials prices, particularly for steel. But analysts say these should be manageable.
Mr. Ali expects that the recent launch of a new yard in the Chinese city of Jingjiang in Jiangsu province, funded with the proceeds of the initial public offering, will further bolster Yangzijiang's order book. "Essentially they have been getting most orders in the container segment. Now, with the new yard, they will get bulk orders too," he predicts.
The new yard has 1,200 meters of deepwater coastline, compared with 719 meters at the company's original shipyard in Jiangyin, China. The yard was completed in October, four months ahead of schedule, something that UBS analyst Hubert Tang sees as a coup for the company.
"In view of the current shopping spree by ship owners and operators, we believe this is a particularly positive development," he says. Mr. Tang has a "buy" on the shares and has raised his 12-month target price to S$2.80 from S$2.43 on anticipation of higher profit margins and more ship deliveries.
The new yard will let Yangzijiang add deliveries for 2009 and 2010. Those are ships for which the company should be able to charge a big premium, given the current tightness in the shipping market.
Bay Area home sales stuck at two-decade low; price picture mixed
December 20, 2007
La Jolla, CA.----The Bay Area's housing market remained in a bit of deep freeze in November, when sluggish demand kept sales at a two-decade low for the third straight month. Prices continued to hold up best in the region's core markets, while some outlying areas posted more double-digit annual declines, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 5,127 new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area in November. That was down 6.5 percent from 5,486 in October, and down 36.2 percent from 8,042 in November 2006, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis for 34 consecutive months. Last month was the slowest November in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Until last month, the slowest November was in 1990, when 6,015 homes sold. The strongest November, in 2004, saw 11,906 sales. The average for the month is 8,367.
"This fall's sharp decline in jumbo-loan financing continued to weigh heavily on Bay Area home sales, though we do see evidence the problem has stabilized. The percent of all transactions financed with jumbo mortgages increased slightly in November for the first time since the credit crunch hit in August. We expect sales to pick up at least modestly as the price and availability of jumbo loans improves," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
The percent of all Bay Area home purchases financed with jumbo loans, or those exceeding $417,000, rose to 44.1 percent in November. That?s up from 42.6 percent of purchases in October but still well below normal. In the first seven months of this year, before the credit crunch, 62 percent of all Bay Area purchases were jumbo-financed.
The number of homes purchased with conforming loans (up to $417,000) fell 12 percent in November compared with a year ago, while jumbo-loan purchases fell 58 percent from last year.
The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $629,000 last month, down 0.3 percent from $631,000 in October, and up 1.5 percent from $620,000 in November last year. Last month?s median was 5.4 percent lower than the peak median of $665,000 reached last June and July.
Prices in the core metro markets close to large job centers or the coast are holding up relatively well, while areas far from the core are experiencing the most price erosion. Individual counties have seen their median prices decline from peak levels by as little as 2.4 percent in San Francisco and by as much as 21.9 percent in Solano.
In some cases those price declines appear to be stoking more sales, especially within the new-home market. In Solano County, for example, new home sales rose nearly 19 percent between October and November. The county's new-home median price is down almost 15 percent on a year-over-year basis and is 22 percent off its peak.
DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Due to late data availability, the November statistics for Alameda County were extrapolated from the first three weeks of the month.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,964 last month, down from $3,000 the previous month, and up from $2,883 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 13.3 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 10.7 percent below the current cycle's peak in June last year.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages and with multiple mortgages have dropped sharply. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, and non-owner occupied buying activity has edged up, DataQuick reported.
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China Raises Interest Rates to Nine-Year High to Cool Inflation
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China raised interest rates for a sixth time this year to cool decade-high inflation in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
The benchmark one-year lending rate will increase to 7.47 percent, a nine-year high, from 7.29 percent, starting tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said today on its Web site. The one- year deposit rate will rise to 4.14 percent from 3.87 percent.
Chinese households’ concern about inflation is at the highest level since a survey began in 1999, the central bank said today. The larger increase in the deposit rate may encourage investors to keep their money in the bank, after house prices rose at the fastest pace since 2005 and the main stock index more than doubled this year.
Monetary policy is ‘‘not tight enough yet and there will be more measures coming,’’ said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
Consumer prices climbed 6.9 percent in November from a year earlier, the quickest pace since December 1996, on fuel and food costs. Producer prices jumped 4.6 percent, the biggest increase in more than two years.
China should let its currency appreciate, given ‘‘mounting inflation, growing asset bubbles and possible overheating,’’ U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said this month.
The yuan has gained more than 12 percent against the U.S. dollar since the end of a peg in July 2005.
Stronger Currency
A stronger Chinese currency would help cool inflation by lowering import costs and slowing money inflows from the trade surplus by pushing up export prices. The trade surplus surged 52.2 percent in the first 11 months of 2007 from a year earlier to $238.1 billion.
In addition to interest rates, the People’s Bank of China has sold bills to absorb cash and raised the proportion of deposits lenders must hold as reserves to 14.5 percent from 9 percent at the start of this year.
‘‘Raising the reserve requirement has become more symbolic than substantial,’’ said Kevin Lai, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. ‘‘At the end of the day, the root cause is the trade surplus. China needs a one-off currency revaluation to reduce inflation and liquidity inflows.’’
House prices in 70 major cities jumped 10.5 percent in November from a year earlier.
China’s economy, the world’s fourth largest, expanded 11.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier.
Growth is likely to slow to 10.5 percent in 2008 from 11.4 percent this year on tightening measures, the Asian Development Bank said this month. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development forecasts a decline to a 10.7 percent pace on reduced demand for exports.
Power Flow Reverses For Wall Street And China
20 December 2007
Not so long ago, Wall Street banks were recapitalizing insolvent Chinese state-owned financial institutions as well as leading companies in the state-controlled economy.
Now the money is beginning to flow the other way, as evidenced by the $5 billion bailout of Morgan Stanley by a Chinese government-owned fund, China Investment Corp., that was announced Wednesday.
Exactly a decade ago, Morgan Stanley became the first Wall Street bank to gain a foothold in China, taking a 34% stake in the first investment bank set up in China, the government-controlled China International Capital Corp., known as CICC.
In subsequent years, despite well-publicized power-sharing problems between Morgan and CICC’s state controllers, it has benefited from the relationship, securing a leading advisory role in billions of dollars worth of offshore initial public offerings by Chinese companies. It also has invested in the country through a private-equity fund.
Morgan Stanley is the top player in China’s fast-growing investment banking business with a 10.4% market share, garnering $690 million in net revenue in the seven years since 2000, compared to its No. 5 position globally with a 5.9% market share, according to Dealogic.
With its capital injection from China Investment Corp., or CIC--the new government agency responsible for investing $200 billion of the country’s $1.4 billion in foreign currency reserves--the one-way money flow from Wall Street has been reversed.
It follows on the heels of a deal struck in October by Bear Stearns, a small investment banking player in China, in which it replenished its depleted capital by forging a cross-shareholding alliance with China’s CITIC.
The Chinese government is assuming a dual relationship with Morgan: It will be the second-largest shareholder after State Street while remaining one of its largest customers, which could pose a conflict of interest for Morgan in its future dealings with China.
The structure of the Chinese investment in Morgan appears aimed to stave off that concern. CIC will not gain a seat on Morgan’s board, content to be a passive shareholder, earning a rich annual interest rate of 9% on bonds that will be convertible into stock in 2010.
By capping the stake at no more than 9.9%, the investment would also avoid a foreign investment review in Washington.
CIC paid $3 billion for a 9.9% stake in the American buyout firm Blackstone prior to its June 22 IPO at the height of the private-equity boom; the slide in Blackstone's share price since has translated into paper losses for the Chinese fund and criticism in the press.
It can only hope that it is being savvier with its aggressive investment in the loss-hit U.S. investment bank.
On the Blackstone deal, a commentator for Shanghai’s popular Xining Evening News expressed wry amazement at the prospect of an American financial institution pledging to recycle Chinese capital in China, comparable to China’s purchasing of American Treasury bills with the proceeds from its exports to the U.S.
Morgan’s future moves in China will not escape similar cynical scrutiny.
WSJA(12/20)Heard In China:Shipbuilder Lures Wave Of Investors
(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA)
By Kirsty Green
Singapore -- SINCE GETTING LISTED in Singapore in April, China-based Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) has drawn a wave of investors as a play on the hot Chinese economy and boom-times in the business. Next month, its shares join a revamped Straits Times Index, which could boost long-term interest in the company.
Yangzijiang certainly hasn't been immune to a broad market selloff, sparked by U.S. economic jitters, that has hit Singapore's China stocks hard. Yesterday, the share-price slid 3.1% to S$1.85 (US$1.27). That is 32% below its S$2.74 peak close on Oct. 18.
With that tumble, many analysts think Yangzijiang is attractively valued. They say its ratio of 2008 price-earnings level to earnings growth is lower than that of Singapore-listed peer Cosco Corp. (Singapore), a unit of giant China Ocean Shipping Group. And they like the fundamentals of Yangzijiang, China's largest nonstate-run shipbuilder by order book.
Last month, the company reported a 68% rise in third-quarter net profit from a year earlier to 224.7 million yuan (US$30.4 million) -- 30% above DBS Vickers's expectation. During November, according to the company, it secured US$204 million of contracts in November, taking its order book to US$5.7 billion.
"With these new orders, they have visibility until 2011 in terms of revenue," says DBS Vickers analyst Ho Pei Hwa, who has a "buy" and a S$3.04 12-month price target on the stock.
Of course, there isn't visibility on the global economy, and any substantial economic slowdown would affect shipbuilders. But many analysts believe that with a continuing shortage of vessels, shipyards should stay busy in coming years.
Like many shipbuilders, Yangzijiang is expanding to meet surging demand for carriers of fuel and raw materials, partly driven by China. Ship operators, keen to make the most of the robust freight rate environment, are ordering vessels they will receive years from now.
Yangzijiang, founded more than 50 years ago, picked Singapore to list in part because it is a center for marine stocks. The company offered shares on Singapore's second board at 95 Singapore cents each. At yesterday's close, the stock is 38% above its level on April 18, its first day of trading. Over the same period, the Straits Times Index has declined 1.3%.
Now, the Singapore stock market is relaunching its main benchmark, the Straits Times Index, to boost credibility with global investors, through a switch to the FTSE's selection criteria. The new index, which kicks off Jan. 10, will comprise 30 leading blue-chip companies ranked by market capitalization; Yangzijiang's market cap is about S$4 billion. The same day will see the debut of the FTSE ST China index, a China-play index made up of companies listed in Singapore that have a significant proportion of Chinese ownership.
"Some funds track whatever goes into the benchmark indices," says fund manager Nicholas Yeo at Aberdeen Asset Management.
As part of the new FTSE ST China index, Yangzijiang could also attract from China's Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor funds, which can invest in certain overseas-listed companies.
"If QDII funds do flow into Singapore, they will probably end up in larger, more liquid stocks like Yangzijiang," says Credit Suisse analyst Haider Ali, who on Nov. 30 began coverage of Yangzijiang with an "outperform" rating and a 12-month target of S$2.45.
Mr. Yeo says the index's inclusion of Yangzijiang "will provide initial interest, but it's about the fundamentals after that."
Based on Credit Suisse forecasts, Yangzijiang trades at 18 times its projected 2008 earnings, while Cosco is about 21 times and Keppel Corp. of Singapore, which has more rig-building than shipbuilding intrests, 13.5 times. Credit Suisse expects Yangzijiang's earnings to more than double next year, while Cosco's would increase 86% and those of Keppel rise 15%.
With its big order book, Yangzijiang will be under pressure to handle a steep ramp-up in deliveries. There are also risks outside the company's control, such as raw-materials prices, particularly for steel. But analysts say these should be manageable.
Mr. Ali expects that the recent launch of a new yard in the Chinese city of Jingjiang in Jiangsu province, funded with the proceeds of the initial public offering, will further bolster Yangzijiang's order book. "Essentially they have been getting most orders in the container segment. Now, with the new yard, they will get bulk orders too," he predicts.
The new yard has 1,200 meters of deepwater coastline, compared with 719 meters at the company's original shipyard in Jiangyin, China. The yard was completed in October, four months ahead of schedule, something that UBS analyst Hubert Tang sees as a coup for the company.
"In view of the current shopping spree by ship owners and operators, we believe this is a particularly positive development," he says. Mr. Tang has a "buy" on the shares and has raised his 12-month target price to S$2.80 from S$2.43 on anticipation of higher profit margins and more ship deliveries.
The new yard will let Yangzijiang add deliveries for 2009 and 2010. Those are ships for which the company should be able to charge a big premium, given the current tightness in the shipping market.
证监会暗停地产IPO 叫停A股再融资
2007年12月20日 19:50:14 中财网
《财经时报》获悉，证监会已经暂停对房地产企业的IPO审批，同时暂停受理房地产上市公司包括增发、发行企业债等再融资方案。但借壳上市、资产重组等不在暂禁之列。
近日《财经时报》独家获悉，目前中国证券监督管理委员会(简称证监会)已经开始通过"窗口指导"的方式，对今后一段时间内房地产企业IPO(首次公开发行股票)以及其他再融资方式加以限制，内容包括暂停受理房地产企业IPO的申请材料、对已上报IPO申请的暂缓审核(排除接近上市的企业)，暂停受理房地产企业包括增发、配股、发债等再融资方案，只放行优质的房企以借壳的方式上市。
至于何时会对上述暂停事项进行"解冻"，目前还没有明确的说法。
在银行即将调高开发商贷款利率的同时，证监会此项决定对于渴望资金的开发商来说无异雪上加霜。
暂停受理房企IPO
《财经时报》从接近证监会的人士处了解到，目前证监会已经暂停受理了房地产企业IPO的申请材料，而对已上报材料的企业也将暂缓审核。
这样的消息得到了国泰君安证券一位行业分析师的证实，"现在暂停受理房企IPO已成为事实"。
就在今年10月底，证监会新闻处曾就此消息出面证实说，监管部门从未暂停房地产企业在内地A股市场的IPO申请受理和审批工作。但记者已经从多方证实，这次证监会确实动了真格。
此次暂停受理房企IPO是否会采取一刀切的方式，似乎是大家最关心的问题。
一位房地产分析师对《财经时报》透露说，根据他的了解，中信地产的计划就是通过IPO的方式实现上市计划，而且他们已经完成了内部的资产评估。
其实早在今年年初，作为中央直属企业的中信集团就曾表示，将陆续整合旗下地产业务，力争在今明两年内完成中信地产的上市，中信地产也一直在为上市做着相关的准备工作。
"按照现在的情况推断，除非能够获得特批，否则中信地产只能转向借壳上市，或者通过其他方式进行融资。"上述房地产分析师称。
叫停A股再融资
《财经时报》还了解到，总的精神中，暂停受理A股再融资方案的申报材料也是此次证监会 "窗口指导"的重要内容，其中包括增发、配股、发债等。
其实证监会此前已经有意收紧房企再融资，有消息称，目前有10多家已经提出定向增发方案的地产公司，至今尚未获得证监会批准。
泛海建设(000046.SZ)于今年7月公布的增发方案近期也一改再改，根据新的增发方案，泛海建设资金募集计划已经流产。
12月12日，泛海建设董秘办人士公开表示，由于监管当局暂停了地产类公司的现金融资，所以他们这次非公开发行放弃了原定的向机构投资者募集现金的计划，"这样的方案更能获得监管层的认同。"
监管机构此次对再融资的叫停源于整个宏观调控的形势，以及对房企今年再融资的警觉。
据不完全统计，今年以来共有25家房地产上市公司通过增发、配股等融资方式，募集资金超过千亿元。
其中万科地产(000002.SZ)通过今年8月启动的增发计划，募集资金100亿元。另一地产巨头保利地产(600048.SH)也通过增发A股，募集资金接近70亿元。
而作为今年增发最大赢家的金地集团(600383.SH)，不仅已经于今年6月以定向增发的方式募集资金45亿元，还将通过增发不超过3.6亿股A股募集资金180亿元。通过两度增发，金地集团募集资金额高达225亿元。
与增发相伴的还有配股，中粮地产、华发股份、世茂地产、华润置地、上实发展、深圳控股等几家房企，通过配股的方式融资额也高达180亿元以上。
根据这次证监会的窗口指导，未来像以*ST广厦这样股票价格已经跌破增发价格的企业来说，实施定向增发的可能性极小。而发债方面，除了像金地集团等个别公司的发债计划已经获得证监会的审核通过外，其他像北辰实业、中粮地产等，由于其发债计划还停留在董事会通过阶段，估计会被暂时搁置。
只放行优质房企借壳
借壳上市也是今年以来房企实施上市计划的主要方式之一。由于大多数"壳"公司业务规模较小或已处于停业甚至频临破产的状态，为了能够有效地拯救这些壳公司，避免壳资源的浪费，按照目前证监会的窗口指导思路，优质房企以借壳的方式上市将被放行。但证监会同时要求，借壳的房企必须具备持续的盈利能力和经营业绩，并且拥有一定的品牌和知名度。
不知是否是嗅到了融资收紧的风声，与之前全国各地频现地王相反的有趣现象是，作为今年北京市体量最大的地块，12月14日，位于北京市朝阳区广营乡清河营村，建筑面积为662219.813平方米的住宅及配套、商业金融(1号地)项目用地在拍卖的时候，竟然出现了流拍的情况。
"由于地块体量过大，需要足够的资金，目前北京楼市前景还不明朗，因此开发商没有信心去拿地王。"一位开发商直言不讳地说。（郑伟）
2007年12月20日
林义相：加息是回收流动性的正确选择
中国人民银行决定：从2007年12月21日起调整金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率，一年期存款基准利率由现行的3.87%提高到4.14%，上调0.27个百分点；一年期贷款基准利率由现行的7.29%提高到7.47%，上调0.18个百分点；其他各档次存、贷款基准利率相应调整。
天相投资顾问有限公司董事长林义相表示，目前大量资金从储蓄流出，进入股市的一二级市场，尤其在打新股时资金量大得惊人。加息提高了资金成本，是回收市场过剩流动性的有效措施。而提高存款准备金率对抑制储蓄流出是没有效果的，不能解决流动性过剩的问题。
目前资本市场上流动性过剩，而实体经济中资金供给不足，这是矛盾的。因此，此次加息对贷款基准利率仅上调0.18个百分点是正确的，贷款利率不应提得过高，而且应该有选择的将资金投放到中小企业中。
他认为，此次加息是非对称加息，会影响到银行的利润。短期看，银行股板块可能会下跌，但加息在收缩过剩资金量上的作用，还需累加显现。他预计，今后还将会有2至3次的加息空间。
Bay Area home sales stuck at two-decade low; price picture mixed
December 20, 2007
La Jolla, CA.----The Bay Area's housing market remained in a bit of deep freeze in November, when sluggish demand kept sales at a two-decade low for the third straight month. Prices continued to hold up best in the region's core markets, while some outlying areas posted more double-digit annual declines, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 5,127 new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area in November. That was down 6.5 percent from 5,486 in October, and down 36.2 percent from 8,042 in November 2006, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis for 34 consecutive months. Last month was the slowest November in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Until last month, the slowest November was in 1990, when 6,015 homes sold. The strongest November, in 2004, saw 11,906 sales. The average for the month is 8,367.
"This fall's sharp decline in jumbo-loan financing continued to weigh heavily on Bay Area home sales, though we do see evidence the problem has stabilized. The percent of all transactions financed with jumbo mortgages increased slightly in November for the first time since the credit crunch hit in August. We expect sales to pick up at least modestly as the price and availability of jumbo loans improves," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
The percent of all Bay Area home purchases financed with jumbo loans, or those exceeding $417,000, rose to 44.1 percent in November. That?s up from 42.6 percent of purchases in October but still well below normal. In the first seven months of this year, before the credit crunch, 62 percent of all Bay Area purchases were jumbo-financed.
The number of homes purchased with conforming loans (up to $417,000) fell 12 percent in November compared with a year ago, while jumbo-loan purchases fell 58 percent from last year.
The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $629,000 last month, down 0.3 percent from $631,000 in October, and up 1.5 percent from $620,000 in November last year. Last month?s median was 5.4 percent lower than the peak median of $665,000 reached last June and July.
Prices in the core metro markets close to large job centers or the coast are holding up relatively well, while areas far from the core are experiencing the most price erosion. Individual counties have seen their median prices decline from peak levels by as little as 2.4 percent in San Francisco and by as much as 21.9 percent in Solano.
In some cases those price declines appear to be stoking more sales, especially within the new-home market. In Solano County, for example, new home sales rose nearly 19 percent between October and November. The county's new-home median price is down almost 15 percent on a year-over-year basis and is 22 percent off its peak.
DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Due to late data availability, the November statistics for Alameda County were extrapolated from the first three weeks of the month.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,964 last month, down from $3,000 the previous month, and up from $2,883 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 13.3 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 10.7 percent below the current cycle's peak in June last year.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages and with multiple mortgages have dropped sharply. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, and non-owner occupied buying activity has edged up, DataQuick reported.
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