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Monday, 17 December 2007
Today 17 December 2007
"It's only when the markets are perceived to have exhausted themselves on the downside that they turn," he said. "Trying to prevent them from going down just merely prolongs the agony."
China revises national holiday system to ease strain on transportation system
BEIJING - China has revised its national holiday system to ease overcrowding on railways, air routes and other transport links when much of the Chinese population is on the move at the same time each year.
The changes _ announced by the State Council, China's Cabinet, late Sunday _ bring back three traditional one-day holidays and introduce more choices for workers by allowing them to take some paid holidays outside the designated breaks.
The government had previously set three weeks each year as national holidays, when factories and offices shut and employees and their families took to the road.
Following the change, one of those weeks, the May Day holiday, will be broken up into three traditional one-day holidays _ grave-sweeping day, dragon boat festival and mid-autumn festival _ which will be marked on separate occasions each year.
The May Day holiday will revert to a one-day holiday.
The change comes into effect next year and increases the total number of national holidays by one day to 11.
The current holiday system was created in 1999, but as China becomes more prosperous, people are traveling more and overwhelming transportation facilities.
Other major holidays include National Day, which celebrates the founding of the People's Republic of China on Oct. 1, New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, which marks the Chinese Lunar New Year when Chinese traditionally return to their home villages.
The official Xinhua News Agency said the government also announced that employees of government agencies, as well as state-run and private companies, will now be able to take paid vacations after one year of service.
Employees who have worked for less than 10 years will get five paid days off a year, while those who have worked between 10 and 19 years will get 10 days. Those who have worked for at least 20 years will get 15 days.
China A-shares close sharply lower led by property, financial stocks
17 December 2007
SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - China A-shares closed sharply lower, with property and financial stocks falling again as institutional investors adjusted their portfolios amid expectations that the authorities will announce more economic tightening measures.
Major indices were also dragged down by heavyweight PetroChina Co Ltd (SHA 601857; HK 0857), which fell 0.56 yuan to 29.99 yuan, closing for the first time below 30 yuan.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 131.15 points or 2.62 pct at 4,876.76, extending a 1.65 pct drop in the previous week.
Turnover rose to 101.52 bln yuan from 81.63 in the previous session.
'The market was dragged down by property and financial stocks as institutions adjusted their portfolios,' said Hu Yu, an analyst at Chinalion Securities. 'The property sector is particularly under pressure as the government has taken direct measures against developers.'
Property and financial stocks have been falling since early last week after China announced a shift in monetary policy to 'tight' from'prudent' and hiked the bank reserve requirement. Many analysts see these sectors' profit growth slowing down next year.
Weakness in regional bourses also weighed here amid rising concerns that the Federal Reserve would have limited room to cut interest rates further on higher-than-expected US consumer inflation figures.
However, consumer stocks continued to outperform the market amid optimism that they will be boosted by rising consumption at the end of year due to seasonal factors.
'The market will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in near term, but we remain cautiously optimistic on the outlook for 2008. Investors should focus on industrial leaders in consumer sectors such as retail, travel and food and beverage as they are expected to post solid gains,' said China International Fund Management in a note.
Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (SHA 600048) lost 4.16 yuan to 56.85, and China Vanke Co Ltd (SZA 000002; SZB 200002) tumbled 2.85 yuan to 27.10.
Oceanwide Construction Group Co Ltd(SZA 000046) fell 4.61 yuan or by the 10 pct daily limit to 41.19, and China Merchants Property Development Co Ltd (SZA 000024; SZB 200024) shed 4.20 yuan to 51.10.
According to media reports, Vanke, the country's largest property developer, has cut prices to encourage buyers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, amid government pressure to curb housing prices.
Many investors are also worried that China may impose a tax on property owners based on the value of real estate.
Industrial Bank Co Ltd (OOTC:INBLF) (SHA 601166) lost 3.89 yuan to 46.86. China Merchants China Direct (AMEX:CDS) Investments Ltd recently said it planned to sell its 1.68 pct stake in Shanghai-listed Industrial Bank to raise at least 2.35 bln yuan.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (OOTC:IDCBF) (ICBC)(SHA 601398; HK 1398) fell 0.32 yuan to 7.67. China Merchants Bank Co Ltd (OOTC:CIHHF) (SHA 600036) declined 2.28 yuan to 36.31.
China Life Insurance Co Ltd (NYSE:LFC) (SHA 601628; HK 2628) slid 4.07 yuan to 54.75.
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (NYSE:CEA) (SHA 600115; HK 0670; NYSE CEA) fell 0.29 yuan or 1.54 pct to 18.53. The company's Hong Kong-listed shares plunged nealy 9 pct today on talk that minority shareholders may vote down a proposal for Singapore Airlines (OOTC:SINGF) (SIA) and Temasek Holdings to take a strategic stake in the mainland carrier.
Suning Appliance Chain Store (Group) Co Ltd (SZA 002024) surged 3.70 yuan to 68.35, and Chinese liquor producer Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (SZA 000858) added 0.49 yuan to 42.55.
Fuyao Group Glass Industries Co Ltd (SHA 600660), a major auto glass producer, gained 0.65 yuan to 31.15. It projected 2007 net profit to rise by more than 50 pct due to increased exports and efficiencies resulting from technology upgrades.
Tianjin Port Co Ltd (SHA 600717) rose 0.62 yuan to 24.88 after it won regulatory approval to place up to 226 mln A-shares at 18.17 yuan, with the proceeds going towards purchasing assets from parent Tianjin Port Group.
The Shanghai A-share Index fell 137.87 points or 2.62 pct to 5,116.85 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was down 12.52 points or 0.90 pct at 1,385.65.
The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was down 750.98 points at 18,777.45, and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index was down 405.07 points at 13,715.40.
The U.S. economy is showing early signs of stagflation as growth threatens to stall while food and energy prices soar, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Sunday.
In an interview on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," Greenspan said low inflation was a major contributor to economic growth and prices must be held in check.
"We are beginning to get not stagflation, but the early symptoms of it," Greenspan said.
"Fundamentally, inflation must be suppressed," he added. "It's critically important that the Federal Reserve is allowed politically to do what it has to do to suppress the inflation rates that I see emerging, not immediately, but clearly over the intermediate and longer-term period."
The U.S. central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate three times since mid-September as a housing downturn, tightening credit conditions, and steep food and energy prices threaten to push the U.S. economy into recession.
But cutting rates can have the unwanted side effect of pushing up prices, so the Fed finds itself in a tricky position of trying to revive growth without spurring inflation.
Last week, U.S. data showed that wholesale inflation rose at the highest rate in 34 years, while consumer prices rose the most in more than two years.
Greenspan repeated his assessment that the probability of a U.S. recession had moved up toward 50 percent but noted that corporate America's debt levels were in good shape, which should help cushion the blow from tightening credit terms.
"The real story is, with the extraordinary credit problems we're confronting, why the probabilities (of recession) are not 60 percent or 70 percent," he said.
"Because of the decline in long-term interest rates for a protracted period of time, American business was able to fund a significant part of its short-term liabilities and take out low-cost, long-term debt, so the credit needs have not been all that large," he said.
Greenspan has drawn some criticism for keeping the trendsetting federal funds rate at a low 1 percent from June 2003 through June 2004, which some argue contributed to a housing bubble that is now bursting spectacularly.
Greenspan said real estate prices will stabilize only when the overhang of unsold new-construction homes begins to ease, and estimated that financial losses could be in the range of $200 billion to $400 billion as securities tied to failing subprime mortgages lose value.
He warned against any sort of government bailout plan for homeowners that interfered with the normal functioning of markets for home prices or interest rates, saying it would "drag this process out indefinitely." Offering cash to stricken homeowners instead would cause less long-term damage, he said.
"It's only when the markets are perceived to have exhausted themselves on the downside that they turn," he said. "Trying to prevent them from going down just merely prolongs the agony."
Beijing launches new satellite navigation for motorists
BEIJING: Beijing is introducing a new satellite navigation system for motorists to help them avoid city jams.
It's one of the string of initiatives to ease congestion ahead of next year's Olympic Games.
In addition to showing motorists the best routes, the dash-board navigator will carry real-time information on jams.
The Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications hopes this will help reduce commuting times.
They will be on sale from January, and estimated to cost between US$400 and US$700 dollars each.
But drivers are divided over how effective the kit will be. Some of them believe the new system will benefit them as the current GPS provides mere road directories and radio updates may not be fast enough. However, others revealed that they can do without it as they navigate with their road experience.
Liu Xiaoming, Deputy Director of the Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications, said: "The main aim is to provide better information service so that commuters could travel more efficiently. It also helps in improving road safety and traffic control."
The growth in vehicle numbers in Beijing has been astounding.
From just 77,000 in 1978, the number has soared to more than three million vehicles- and is still increasing by 1,000 daily.
This is resulting not only in massive congestion, but also serious air pollution from car emissions.
Hence, the Municipal government is giving top priority to developing public transport.
It has lowered bus fares in downtown areas to US14 cents (1 RMB) while subway fares have been cut by one-third to US27 cents (2 RMB).
A Bus Rapid Transit system is also being introduced.
These large buses can carry more passengers and cut travel time - thanks to exclusive bus lanes.
These, together with the subways lines, will be fully integrated to serve commuters round the clock from July to September 2008 during the Olympics and Paralympics.
However, the effectiveness of these measures to ease the gridlock remains to be seen.
6 comments:
China revises national holiday system to ease strain on transportation system
BEIJING - China has revised its national holiday system to ease overcrowding on railways, air routes and other transport links when much of the Chinese population is on the move at the same time each year.
The changes _ announced by the State Council, China's Cabinet, late Sunday _ bring back three traditional one-day holidays and introduce more choices for workers by allowing them to take some paid holidays outside the designated breaks.
The government had previously set three weeks each year as national holidays, when factories and offices shut and employees and their families took to the road.
Following the change, one of those weeks, the May Day holiday, will be broken up into three traditional one-day holidays _ grave-sweeping day, dragon boat festival and mid-autumn festival _ which will be marked on separate occasions each year.
The May Day holiday will revert to a one-day holiday.
The change comes into effect next year and increases the total number of national holidays by one day to 11.
The current holiday system was created in 1999, but as China becomes more prosperous, people are traveling more and overwhelming transportation facilities.
Other major holidays include National Day, which celebrates the founding of the People's Republic of China on Oct. 1, New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, which marks the Chinese Lunar New Year when Chinese traditionally return to their home villages.
The official Xinhua News Agency said the government also announced that employees of government agencies, as well as state-run and private companies, will now be able to take paid vacations after one year of service.
Employees who have worked for less than 10 years will get five paid days off a year, while those who have worked between 10 and 19 years will get 10 days. Those who have worked for at least 20 years will get 15 days.
2007-12-17
曾淵滄：內房股未見底港樓市未升完
近兩三個星期，我重複地建議大家放棄內地房地產股而改持本地房地產股，前日在一個新書發佈會上，有讀者提出不同意見，該讀者認為內地房地產股股價已經大幅下跌兩三成，相反本地房地產股已經上漲不少，為甚麼不趁低吸納內房股？「趁壞消息入市或趁好消息出貨」的確是炒股票的一種方法，我自己也經常用。內房股目前壞消息多多，本地房地產股靠減息支持，為甚麼不趁股價大跌而吸納內房股？「趁壞消息入市或趁好消息出貨」的方法，也有人稱之為「相反理論」，即刻意與眾多的其他股民做相反的事，這是假設多數股民是愚笨的。但是，要應用這個方法最難的地方是時間的掌握，入市太早會發現壞消息還沒有消化，還繼續來。1997年9月開始的金融風暴，如果你在9月、10月入市，恐怕挨不到1998年10月金融風暴結束。「相反理論」的應用第一步是要估計目前的壞消息與好消息會持續多久？會不會繼續有壞消息與好消息？只有當你估計黑夜已快到盡頭，人人已經死心時，你才可以趁壞消息入市，好消息也一樣，只有當你看到人人發瘋式的入市搶購，你才考慮離市。
相反理論勿亂用
現在，讓我們看看內地房地產股與本地房地產股在今後所將面臨的情況如何？先談內地房地產股，中共全國經濟會議才剛剛召開，一系列針對房地產價格過高的政策還沒推出呢！而且，房地產市道的一個特徵是：萬一真的轉勢，則時間會很長。美國房地產市道於2006年開始轉勢，次按問題到2007年才浮現。相反的，本地房地產市道現在正開始進入亢奮期，上星期中原城市指數又再上升2.73%，達65.55點。一個星期上升2.73%是很強的升勢，而且，更重要的是中原城市指數已經連續10個星期上升，累積升幅達14%，過去一年升幅已達兩成。過去10個星期正是港股風雨飄搖期，樓市能逆股市而上，可見買樓的力量正開始釋放出來，本地房地產發展商也已盡量延遲推出樓花。
China A-shares close sharply lower led by property, financial stocks
17 December 2007
SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - China A-shares closed sharply lower, with property and financial stocks falling again as institutional investors adjusted their portfolios amid expectations that the authorities will announce more economic tightening measures.
Major indices were also dragged down by heavyweight PetroChina Co Ltd (SHA 601857; HK 0857), which fell 0.56 yuan to 29.99 yuan, closing for the first time below 30 yuan.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 131.15 points or 2.62 pct at 4,876.76, extending a 1.65 pct drop in the previous week.
Turnover rose to 101.52 bln yuan from 81.63 in the previous session.
'The market was dragged down by property and financial stocks as institutions adjusted their portfolios,' said Hu Yu, an analyst at Chinalion Securities. 'The property sector is particularly under pressure as the government has taken direct measures against developers.'
Property and financial stocks have been falling since early last week after China announced a shift in monetary policy to 'tight' from'prudent' and hiked the bank reserve requirement. Many analysts see these sectors' profit growth slowing down next year.
Weakness in regional bourses also weighed here amid rising concerns that the Federal Reserve would have limited room to cut interest rates further on higher-than-expected US consumer inflation figures.
However, consumer stocks continued to outperform the market amid optimism that they will be boosted by rising consumption at the end of year due to seasonal factors.
'The market will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in near term, but we remain cautiously optimistic on the outlook for 2008. Investors should focus on industrial leaders in consumer sectors such as retail, travel and food and beverage as they are expected to post solid gains,' said China International Fund Management in a note.
Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (SHA 600048) lost 4.16 yuan to 56.85, and China Vanke Co Ltd (SZA 000002; SZB 200002) tumbled 2.85 yuan to 27.10.
Oceanwide Construction Group Co Ltd(SZA 000046) fell 4.61 yuan or by the 10 pct daily limit to 41.19, and China Merchants Property Development Co Ltd (SZA 000024; SZB 200024) shed 4.20 yuan to 51.10.
According to media reports, Vanke, the country's largest property developer, has cut prices to encourage buyers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, amid government pressure to curb housing prices.
Many investors are also worried that China may impose a tax on property owners based on the value of real estate.
Industrial Bank Co Ltd (OOTC:INBLF) (SHA 601166) lost 3.89 yuan to 46.86. China Merchants China Direct (AMEX:CDS) Investments Ltd recently said it planned to sell its 1.68 pct stake in Shanghai-listed Industrial Bank to raise at least 2.35 bln yuan.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (OOTC:IDCBF) (ICBC)(SHA 601398; HK 1398) fell 0.32 yuan to 7.67. China Merchants Bank Co Ltd (OOTC:CIHHF) (SHA 600036) declined 2.28 yuan to 36.31.
China Life Insurance Co Ltd (NYSE:LFC) (SHA 601628; HK 2628) slid 4.07 yuan to 54.75.
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (NYSE:CEA) (SHA 600115; HK 0670; NYSE CEA) fell 0.29 yuan or 1.54 pct to 18.53. The company's Hong Kong-listed shares plunged nealy 9 pct today on talk that minority shareholders may vote down a proposal for Singapore Airlines (OOTC:SINGF) (SIA) and Temasek Holdings to take a strategic stake in the mainland carrier.
Suning Appliance Chain Store (Group) Co Ltd (SZA 002024) surged 3.70 yuan to 68.35, and Chinese liquor producer Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (SZA 000858) added 0.49 yuan to 42.55.
Fuyao Group Glass Industries Co Ltd (SHA 600660), a major auto glass producer, gained 0.65 yuan to 31.15. It projected 2007 net profit to rise by more than 50 pct due to increased exports and efficiencies resulting from technology upgrades.
Tianjin Port Co Ltd (SHA 600717) rose 0.62 yuan to 24.88 after it won regulatory approval to place up to 226 mln A-shares at 18.17 yuan, with the proceeds going towards purchasing assets from parent Tianjin Port Group.
The Shanghai A-share Index fell 137.87 points or 2.62 pct to 5,116.85 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was down 12.52 points or 0.90 pct at 1,385.65.
The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was down 750.98 points at 18,777.45, and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index was down 405.07 points at 13,715.40.
Greenspan sees early signs of U.S. stagflation
The U.S. economy is showing early signs of stagflation as growth threatens to stall while food and energy prices soar, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Sunday.
In an interview on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," Greenspan said low inflation was a major contributor to economic growth and prices must be held in check.
"We are beginning to get not stagflation, but the early symptoms of it," Greenspan said.
"Fundamentally, inflation must be suppressed," he added. "It's critically important that the Federal Reserve is allowed politically to do what it has to do to suppress the inflation rates that I see emerging, not immediately, but clearly over the intermediate and longer-term period."
The U.S. central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate three times since mid-September as a housing downturn, tightening credit conditions, and steep food and energy prices threaten to push the U.S. economy into recession.
But cutting rates can have the unwanted side effect of pushing up prices, so the Fed finds itself in a tricky position of trying to revive growth without spurring inflation.
Last week, U.S. data showed that wholesale inflation rose at the highest rate in 34 years, while consumer prices rose the most in more than two years.
Greenspan repeated his assessment that the probability of a U.S. recession had moved up toward 50 percent but noted that corporate America's debt levels were in good shape, which should help cushion the blow from tightening credit terms.
"The real story is, with the extraordinary credit problems we're confronting, why the probabilities (of recession) are not 60 percent or 70 percent," he said.
"Because of the decline in long-term interest rates for a protracted period of time, American business was able to fund a significant part of its short-term liabilities and take out low-cost, long-term debt, so the credit needs have not been all that large," he said.
Greenspan has drawn some criticism for keeping the trendsetting federal funds rate at a low 1 percent from June 2003 through June 2004, which some argue contributed to a housing bubble that is now bursting spectacularly.
Greenspan said real estate prices will stabilize only when the overhang of unsold new-construction homes begins to ease, and estimated that financial losses could be in the range of $200 billion to $400 billion as securities tied to failing subprime mortgages lose value.
He warned against any sort of government bailout plan for homeowners that interfered with the normal functioning of markets for home prices or interest rates, saying it would "drag this process out indefinitely." Offering cash to stricken homeowners instead would cause less long-term damage, he said.
"It's only when the markets are perceived to have exhausted themselves on the downside that they turn," he said. "Trying to prevent them from going down just merely prolongs the agony."
Beijing launches new satellite navigation for motorists
BEIJING: Beijing is introducing a new satellite navigation system for motorists to help them avoid city jams.
It's one of the string of initiatives to ease congestion ahead of next year's Olympic Games.
In addition to showing motorists the best routes, the dash-board navigator will carry real-time information on jams.
The Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications hopes this will help reduce commuting times.
They will be on sale from January, and estimated to cost between US$400 and US$700 dollars each.
But drivers are divided over how effective the kit will be. Some of them believe the new system will benefit them as the current GPS provides mere road directories and radio updates may not be fast enough. However, others revealed that they can do without it as they navigate with their road experience.
Liu Xiaoming, Deputy Director of the Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications, said: "The main aim is to provide better information service so that commuters could travel more efficiently. It also helps in improving road safety and traffic control."
The growth in vehicle numbers in Beijing has been astounding.
From just 77,000 in 1978, the number has soared to more than three million vehicles- and is still increasing by 1,000 daily.
This is resulting not only in massive congestion, but also serious air pollution from car emissions.
Hence, the Municipal government is giving top priority to developing public transport.
It has lowered bus fares in downtown areas to US14 cents (1 RMB) while subway fares have been cut by one-third to US27 cents (2 RMB).
A Bus Rapid Transit system is also being introduced.
These large buses can carry more passengers and cut travel time - thanks to exclusive bus lanes.
These, together with the subways lines, will be fully integrated to serve commuters round the clock from July to September 2008 during the Olympics and Paralympics.
However, the effectiveness of these measures to ease the gridlock remains to be seen.
央行连续第四次要求本地银行以美元上缴上调后的准备金
财华中国 2007-12-17 18:11:26
知情人士17日向道琼斯通讯社透露，中国央行(PBOC)已经通知国内银行，要求以美元上缴近期上调的存款准备金。
据来自三家不同国有银行的消息人士表示，中国央行要求大型国有银行完全以美元上缴上调后的准备金。他们称，这是央行连续第四次要求这些银行完全以美元上缴上调后的存款准备金。
知情人士称，中国央行还要求一些小型中资银行以美元上缴部分存款准备金。
中国央行于12月8日宣布，自12月25日将多数商业银行人民币存款准备金率上调100个基点，至14.5%﹔这一准备金率也创下了20世纪80年代中期以来的最高水平。
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