Friday, 16 January 2009
By Lee Wei Ling
In 2007, in an end-of-year message to the staff of the National Neuroscience Institute, I wrote: ‘Whilst boom time in the public sector is never as booming as in the private sector, let us not forget that boom time is eventually followed by slump time. Slump time in the public sector is always less painful compared to the private sector.’
The Price of JPMorgan’s Deal-Making
JPMorgan Chase is beginning to realize that some of the bargain basement purchases it made last year were cheap for a reason.
How the West must wish its banks were as seemingly pliant as those in China
No such problem in China, where the top banks remain majority or wholly state-owned. Beijing’s large fiscal stimulus package needs bank lending support, and it is getting it. But this support is going to come at a cost – namely, in an increase in nonperforming loans.
Bad News is no News? Think Again
Given all this, it’ll take a brave man to really argue that stock prices have fully priced in the bad news. Stocks are cheap, but they can be cheaper. Think about it this way: there could be a whole year’s worth of bad news waiting for stocks - and there really is no need for any hurry to jump back into the market.
Fund to Repay Investors in Securities Not Cash
GoldenTree Asset Management, a credit hedge fund, is offering investors who want to withdraw money securities instead of cash, triggering protests from those who in many cases lack means to dispose of such instruments.
Ponzi Case Raises Death Penalty Questions
Do financiers tied to all sorts of investment fraud, ‘underground banking’ and private borrowing deserve to be executed?
CSRC Said to Launch Growth Market in 2009
The State Council approved the growth market proposal, giving way for smaller IPOs.
Abu Dhabi Wealth Fund Lost $125 Billion, Council Says
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority may have lost $125 billion last year, pushing the sovereign wealth fund to second place behind Saudi Arabia after the global credit crisis cut asset prices, economists at the Council on Foreign Relations said in a report.
Super Bear Warns on US, China Risks
The US economy is likely to enter into a depression and the “implosion” of the Chinese economy will cause disastrous consequences for the whole world, Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards said.
Down We Go Again: Faint Hope Vanishes on Wall Street
So you thought Wall Street might be out of the woods? Think again.
CLUB 99
We can be happy, even with very little in our lives, but the minute we’re given something bigger and better, we want even more! We lose our sleep, our happiness, we hurt the people around us; all these as a price for our growing needs and desires.
Citigroup Goes To Sleep
A sharp reader corrected me as follows “Banks like Citigroup are not failing banks, they are failed banks. If your only source of funds are the politicians handing out taxpayer money, you’ve already failed, you’re bankrupt.”
Websites Still Offering Fake Notes
Mainland websites offering high-quality fake banknotes were still operating yesterday despite regulators promising a crackdown before the Lunar New Year, when cash transactions typically peak for the year.
A Flowering of Activism Poses Problems and Solutions for China
“NGOs will eventually push democratic change,” he said. “Whatever the Chinese government thinks about that, it will happen eventually.”
Thursday, 15 January 2009
Chill Winds Cool CNY Spirits
But the chill winds blowing through the global economy are putting a damper on this Chinese Lunar New Year, especially for the millions of migrant workers who toil in factories and building sites, and who only get to go home this time each year.
US Auto Sector
According to the sector report by GS, auto sector should be avoided. Neutral on Toyota and Honda but Suzuki may be a better performer given its higher growth potential, particularly in India.
Investment Slows in Shanghai Property Market
The gloomy performance of Shanghai’s property market has discouraged investment in the sector, say local experts.
Auto Sector Gets a Shot in the Arm
Sales tax on vehicles with engines of less than 1.6 liters will be halved and exchange of old vehicles for new ones with smaller engines subsidized to boost the auto industry.
Stimulus Plan for China Autos
China has issued a stimulus package for its auto sector, including a tax cut, the first in a series of policies to boost key industries in the midst of the global crisis, state media said on Thursday.
Not the Time to Flaunt Your Riches
A high-ranking civil servant’s account about spending RM110,124 for him, his wife and son to learn fine French cooking has blown up in his face.
Some Singapore Homes Valued at 54% Less Than Price, Today Says
Bank valuations for Singapore homes are as much as 54 percent lower than sellers’ asking prices, leading to fewer sales in the property market amid an economic crisis, Today reported.
Tuesday, 13 January 2009
Policy Measures Starting to Show Results: Wen
Premier Wen Jiabao says China’s efforts to break out of an economic slump amid global turmoil are starting to show results, with the economy performing better than expected in December, state radio reported.
Pay-Interest-Only Deal for Cash-Short Home Owners
DBS scheme eases borrowers’ burden for six to 18 months
Recent Stock Rally Could Trigger Hedge Fund Selling
Madoff affair sparks wave of applications for withdrawals from hedge funds
Commodities Tumble as Recession Erodes Grain, Energy Demand
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 prices slid 4.1 percent. Corn, soybeans and wheat plunged the most allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade, crude oil fell below $38 a barrel and gold declined the most in six weeks.
Citi to Close China Private Banking Unit
Citigroup Inc will close its about three-year-old private banking unit in China, where the third-largest U.S. bank by assets once tried to attract money from fast growing millionaires, sources familiar with the situation said on Tuesday.
China Could Miss 8pc Growth Goal says PBOC Chief
Just a week before the release of macroeconomic data for 2008, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has said the mainland could miss its target of 8 percent economic growth this year.
Monday, 12 January 2009
Iran Laundered Billions via US Banks
Some money may have been used to fund Iran’s nuclear, missile programmes
US Faces Longest Recession Since WWII
The US recession will probably be the longest since World War II and could worsen without heavy government spending, according to a closely watched survey of economists released last Saturday. The Blue Chip Economic Indicators poll of 52 economists from top financial firms, major companies and academia found that most expected a tepid recovery to begin later this year, with growth returning to more normal levels in 2010.
2008 Most Active Year for Buyers, Least Active for Sellers Since 2001
2008 was a very challenging year for directors as the market plunged to a five-year low of 1,600 in the fourth quarter, ending the year down by more than 49 per cent to 1,761.56. The steep fall in the market resulted in the most active year for buyers and the least active year for sellers, since 2001.
As Always, an Overvalued Wall Street is the Main Problem
Last week’s column strongly advised investors to be sceptical about the year-end rally and to sell into strength at every opportunity, or risk getting caught in yet another bear trap.
3G Licences Drive Up China Telecom-Related Stocks
Longcheer, Sinotel among companies expected to benefit from new business
Corporate Fraud Scandals Can Happen Anywhere
The approach recognises that while in developed countries, outright bribery may be less prevalent, companies can sometimes benefit from ‘legal corruption’ by achieving undue influence over regulation and policymaking. In such an environment, lax oversight and corporate scandals can be expected.
Stellar Chinese Art Market Faces Correction
Two steps forward, one step back: This painting titled 'Mao I: From the Masses, To the Masses' by Chinese artist Zeng Fanzhi is valued at over HK$30 million. Market players say in the end, the Chinese market will emerge healthier and more locally focused
2008 Auto Sales Record Slowest Growth Since 1999
Auto sales in China rose 6.7 percent in 2008 from a year earlier, the first non-double digit growth since 1999, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Monday.
China’s Art Auction Market Still on Downturn Spiral
China’s artworks auction market continued to slow sharply in the second half of 2008, a report says.
Disney to Submit Shanghai Park Plans to Beijing
The Walt Disney Co. entertainment giant said Monday it is preparing to submit plans to Beijing to build a theme park in Shanghai, but stressed no deal had been agreed with the Chinese government.
Kuwait’s Global Investment House defaults on debt
Shares of Global tumble over 80% in London; Fitch cuts its rating to D
Boot Camp! China’s Answer to Web Addiction
Push-Ups, Leg Lifts, Military Drills Pack Days of Teens Who Couldn’t Stop Clicking
Global Mergers to Remain Subdued After 28% Fall in 2008
Venture capital and private equity deals also in the decline
Looking Good Versus Doing Well
The Enron and Satyam scandals prove that it isn’t enough to have a star-studded board of directors. In fact, it can be counter-productive
Friday, 9 January 2009
Shanghai Scrapes Sky as the Ground Sinks
Is urban development, including China’s highest building now under construction, hastening Shanghai’s slide into the sea?
Shanghai Property Boom Fading Away
The real estate boom seems to have petered out in Shanghai with sellers outnumbering buyers as more and more investors look to exit the sector that triggered the economic crisis.
Wednesday, 7 January 2009
Death of graft-buster not murder, court rules
The former deputy chairman of the Xinzhou People’s Political Consultative Conference was jailed for six years yesterday for reckless driving that led to the death of top Shanxi graft-busting official Jin Yinhuan.
670,000 Small Firms Shut; Jobless Rate Doubled
Grim economic conditions forced more than 670,000 of the mainland’s small firms out of business, and real unemployment was more than double the official rate last year, according to leading economic analysts.
Housing Market a Drag on into 2009 and Beyond
2009 will be a year of adjustment for the real estate industry. The bearish market may end in the second half of 2009, but a 21st-Century Real Estate insider said a rebound in the second half of 2009 didn’t mean price hikes. Any boom in a real sense, with rising housing prices, won’t come until 2011 at the soonest.
GM China Sales Growth Slumps to 6% in 2008
General Motors Corp posted a 6-percent growth in its China vehicle sales in 2008, the lowest growth rate in at least six years, the US carmaker said on Tuesday, reflecting the stagnant market amid the financial crisis and a lack of attractive models.
Chang’an Auto Sales Down 4% in 2008
Chongqing Chang’an Automobile Co, the Chinese listed partner of troubled US car giant Ford, sold 739,307 cars in 2008, down 4 percent from the previous year’s figure of 770,546 units, the company said on Tuesday.
‘Comply or Explain’: SGX Must be Stricter
I refer to the letter ‘Thoughts on SGX’s regulatory stance’ by Mak Yuen Teen (BT, Dec 23) and ‘Buyer beware and seller beware too’ by R Sivanithy (BT, Jan 1).
Enough Safeguards to Avoid Conflicts: SGX
Excluding directors of listed firms from SGX board would limit talent pool
SGX Has Robust Framework as a Self-Regulatory Organisation
We refer to the letter from Mr. Mak Yuen Teen, ‘Thoughts on SGX’s regulatory stance’ (BT, Dec 23, 2008).
SGX Strikes Balance as Market Operator
We refer to the article, ‘SGX should set governance benchmark’ by Oh Boon Ping (BT, Dec 25).
Warrant Turnover Down 25% in 2008
But volatile markets also make it more difficult for banks that issue warrants to hedge their risk. As a result, there were 31 per cent fewer new warrant listings in 2008 - just 1,184 compared with 1,724 a year earlier - as issuers turned more cautious.
Tuesday, 6 January 2009
IPOs in China to Jump 47%
Funds raised by Chinese companies in local initial public offerings are likely to rise 47 per cent this year compared with last year, accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers said on Tuesday.
Laguna En-bloc Saga - Charged with Mischief
Businessman Lee Kok Leong, 62, is alleged to have inserted glue into the padlock, main wooden door and rear gate keyholes of a flat at Block 5000E, Laguna Park, Marine Parade Road, at 12.44am on Aug 25 last year.
Moment of Truth in Fighting off Depression
Unless Congress gets its act together, Obama’s stimulus plan will be delayed or downsized
2009: China’s Year of Rising Opportunities, and Challenges
In 2009, China, along with the rest of the world, is at a new historical starting point. The largest post-Cold War change in the world situation is taking place in response to the global financial crisis and economic recession, a rebalance of the global economy. The change will not be sudden and catastrophic but a gradual and, it is profoundly to be hoped, peaceful evolution, and will run from to the middle of the 21st century.
Monday, 5 January 2009
Beijing Eases Sales Tax to Lift Property Market
Tax deductions or exemptions have been added to cuts in the flat rate of taxes levied on property sales on the mainland in a bid to stimulate the floundering market, but analysts believe the measures will have only a marginally positive effect and that more relief is in the pipeline.
Workers Bear Brunt of Vehicle Industry Slump
Workers in the mainland vehicle industry face a tough winter as car plants across the country shut down for extended holiday breaks to trim production in line with falling demand.
Paralyzed Finance
Fiscal policy alone cannot repair the damaged trust in the financial system. Monetary policy has come to its limits as well.
Hope for a Stronger Manufacturing Sector
China’s Next 30 Years: Manufacturing is crucial to pushing the Chinese economy to the top
Private Equity Losses Sting Chinese Investment Arms
The Chinese government may have lost billions of dollars during the financial crisis when private equity investments vanished.
2 China Women Seek Court Review for Right to Stay Here
They want High Court to order ICA to issue work and study passes
China’s Mounting Pink Slips
As startling as these factory closures have been, the fate of another less-heralded figure may be more significant: the laid-off office worker.
Concerns Over CFOs Quitting
For some firms, the role of the CFO may have evolved over the years so that this staff member is more of a strategic planner or investor-relations chief.
Look to Sell into Strength or Risk Being Bear-Trapped - Again
For most of 2008, the advice given in this column was to selectively buy the dips but to always sell into strength because all bounces would eventually turn out to be bear traps.
China to Boost Auto Sector
China will announce measures in the first quarter to keep its slowing auto sector growing at about 10 per cent annually during the global economic slowdown, state media reported on Monday.
1 in 5 Mulling Leaving Hong Kong
One in five Hong Kong residents is considering leaving the city because of its dire air quality, a survey released on Monday has found, raising fears over the financial hub’s competitiveness.
Straits Asia Resources
1) MACD crossover.
2) Strong enough to break out of wedge.
Resistance 0.955, 1.03 and 1.220.
SMM
1) One more LT line to clear.
2) MACD trending towards 0.
3) Stochastic has more upside.
Resistance 2.06, 2.18 and 2.30.
China’s Young Get Thrifty
China’s office workers are tightening their belts, cutting back spending on everything from clothes to fast food, despite government efforts to boost consumption to stave off the worst effects of a global recession.
Detox Diet - Fact or Fad?
Detox diets that claim to be able to cleanse one’s body of toxins are growing in popularity but some say that it is just pop science.
Goodbye 2008 - Andy Xie
Many governments are trying to boost asset markets directly. The US suspended short-selling for a period. Pakistan and Russia closed stock markets from time to time. China cut stamp duties. These measures have had little effect for a good reason. Most of the reductions in asset prices are due to bubble bursting, i.e., the prices were too high before, not too low now. For example, the average price-book ratio for the US stock market for the past eight decades is 2. The current level is 1.7, not a big discount from the historical norm.
Sunday, 4 January 2009
A Remedy Better Than Painkillers
China’s next response to the global economic crisis should embrace opportunities with a new development model.
Shanghai Official Commits Suicide
An official perhaps affiliated with Chen Liangyu’s graft scandal jumped from her balcony.
China Eases Controls for Property Market
Relaxed rules for credit and mortgages could brighten a gloomy real estate market. But banks are treading carefully.
Did Chen Snack His Way Through a Hunger Strike?
A security camera in his cell recorded him nibbling on snacks at night, a Taiwanese magazine reports.
Cheating is in Chen Shui-bian's blood/gene.
Big Hopes for Emerging Market Stocks
Emerging-market stocks fell the most ever last year but investors are looking for Brazil, Russia, India and the mainland to lead a reversal in 2009.
Chinese Aim for the Ivy League
The book spawned a genre, selling more than two million copies in China on the premise that any child, with the proper upbringing, could be Ivy League material.
Continued Growth Could Make Mainland Shares a Good Bet
Despite mainland share prices suffering a dramatic fall last year, it is still too early to write off their long-term investment potential.
Elite Lawyers Spent Only 12 Days in Court Last Year
Each Senior Counsel spent, on average, just one day in the Court of Appeal last year and another 11 days arguing a trial in court.
12,000 Protest Israeli Attacks
About 12,000 people marched through London on Saturday in protest against Israel’s military offensive on Gaza, police said, in a demonstration that began peacefully but ended in a string of arrests.
Dollar the X-Factor in Commodity Markets
“The US is going to print the dollar to get out of the recession, and anything tangible, like industrial metals, is going to be worth more.”
China’s Car Makers Urged to Learn from U.S. Crisis by “Thinking Small”
There’s a lesson for China’s car makers in the fate of the ailing U.S. auto industry: develop smaller, fuel-efficient models instead of betting on gas-guzzlers, industry analysts have warned.
US Stocks Face Headwinds Despite New Year Rally
Experts cautioned that the advances of the key indices came amid very low trading volume as many investors were still on holiday.
Ezra
Ezra's chart is very similar to SMM's. Many oil related stocks are showing the same pattern. Can refer to comments in SMM post. Only difference is Ezra hasn't broken out of the wedge yet.
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