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Friday 24 April 2020
Something to ponder about beyond Covid-19
The author is a Taiwanese American, Ph.D.
in Mathematics, and is engaged in radar-related work at Boeing. He talks about
"China and the United States must have a war" and provides us with
some interesting perspectives.
The author is a Taiwanese American, Ph.D. in Mathematics, and is engaged in radar-related work at Boeing. He talks about "China and the United States must have a war" and provides us with some interesting perspectives.
The general trend now is: the decline of the United States is a foregone conclusion, and the rise of China is unstoppable. Time is on the Chinese side, so the United States must provoke conflict as soon as possible, and find something to fix you, otherwise he will be too late. This is the theoretical basis of his book.
The biggest problem in the United States is the dollar debt crisis. He owes more than 20 trillion dollars. This number is still rising. If interest rates continue to rise, the United States will soon be unable to pay interest. Under such circumstances, why is the United States not willing to reduce military spending? That is because superior military strength is a guarantee against debt collection. Just like a bully in the village, he borrowed a lot of money and owed a huge debt. The reason why he is fine so far is that others can't beat him up. If someone can beat him, he will be beaten and crippled. This is the basis of his hegemony.
How does America project his military hegemony? Relying on his aircraft carrier combat groups, which is a pure offensive weapon.
The earliest navies relied on battleships. This is the big ship cannonism. The pinnacle of this thinking was the Japanese battleship Yamato, but the emergence of the aircraft carrier quickly eliminated the battleship. The Yamato, which was built by Japan’s national effort, was almost inactive. The aircraft carrier eliminated the battleship because the battleship’s guns could not hit the aircraft carrier, and the aircraft carrier’s carrier-based aircraft hit the battleship. Since then, it has been the world of aircraft carriers.
The United States has 11 aircraft carrier battle groups, running around the world, bullying some poor and weak countries everywhere, and it seems invincible. But the Chinese very cleverly invented the "ballistic missile attacking large sea ships" method to hit the aircraft carrier. This is Dongfeng-21D.
The DF-21D is a conventionally armed DF-21 variant designed to attack ships at sea. Sometimes dubbed the “carrier-killer”, U.S. reports suggest a range from 1,450 to 1,550 km. Similar to the DF-21B, the warhead is likely manoeuvrable and may have an accuracy of 20 m CEP. This missile entered service in 2006 along with the DF-21C. In 2013, the missile was tested against a ship target that was roughly the same size as contemporary U.S. aircraft carriers.
The price of a Dongfeng-21D is USD 10 million, and the price of an aircraft carrier is USD 4.5 billion, plus all the carrier-based aircraft, a total of USD 10 billion. Suppose a round of Dongfeng-21D saturation attack uses 10 missiles, which is USD 100 million. I can exchange USD 100 million with you. I don’t have to lose a soldier, and you have to risk 5,000 sailors on the aircraft carrier. How can this battle continue? Dongfeng -21D playing aircraft carrier is even cooler than the aircraft carrier playing battleship.
To achieve ballistic missiles hitting aircraft carriers, it is not enough to rely on Dongfeng-21D. It requires a complete set of system engineering. The most difficult part is the search, discovery and tracking of aircraft carriers. As long as you can search, track, and lock, you have completed 90% of the tasks. This requires the use of China's sky-wave over-the-horizon radar. At present, China already has two sets of sky-wave radars.
The first Chinese Over-the-Horizon Backscatter Radar [OTH-B] receiver at Sanlichong, Nanzhang, near Xiangyang, Hubei Province was completed in June 2007. The radar transmitter, about 100 km to the North-East of the receiver, is located 25km north of Zaoyang City, near the Zhouquiao reservoir.
Henri Kenhmann of EastPedulum reported 18 January 2017 that "The satellite images as of December 31, 2016 show that China has started the construction of a second trans-horizon radar (OTH-B) that is able to spot targets over a distance of more than 3,000 km ..... unlike the first Chinese OTH-B radar that targets the wide area between the coast East of China to the second chain of islands, that is to say, to Guam, where the largest US military base in the Western Pacific is, this second trans-horizon radar covers the entire peninsula of Korea, and a large part of Japan, from Hokkaido Island in the north to Okinawa Island in the south."
But, the United States say it has anti-ballistic weapons; this is nothing more than advertising. The reason is simple. North Korea has launched so many "two kicks". As long as you can successfully intercept it once, North Korea will be over. He has no way to threaten you again. So why doesn't the United States intercept? It is because he knows that it cannot be intercepted. The so-called anti-missile is only a propaganda slogan and has no actual effect. In case the interception fails, do you still have face?
Assuming that the anti-missile is true and can indeed intercept another missile, then it is a simple math. Your price for an anti-missile missile is USD 1.5 million (Patriot 3). Then I launch a common ballistic missile of USD 500,000. Let you intercept. You have to launch at least three to guarantee the interception. Then I will exchange my one USD 500,000 missile for your 3 USD 1.5 million missiles (total price USD 4.5 million). This is a good deal for me. If this battle goes on, you must go bankrupt first.
By the end of 2020, China's Beidou satellite system will achieve global coverage, and its self-produced aircraft carriers will also be launched. Industrial production capacity far exceeds that of the United States. By that time, the United States will have no advantage.
Therefore, the United States must advance the time when the conflict breaks out, and must take advantage of it early while it still has an advantage. However, China strives to postpone the time of conflict and wants to drag it to a time when its own advantages are greater. So you will find that the United States takes the initiative every day to find fault, and China takes the initiative to deal with it every day.
The author believes that 2020 and 2030 are the two key points in time. After 2020, the United States will not be able to win against China, and by 2030, China will fully surpass the United States, leaving little time for the United States. This explains why Trump recently behaves like a mad dog.
2 comments:
The author is a Taiwanese American, Ph.D. in Mathematics, and is engaged in radar-related work at Boeing. He talks about "China and the United States must have a war" and provides us with some interesting perspectives.
The general trend now is: the decline of the United States is a foregone conclusion, and the rise of China is unstoppable. Time is on the Chinese side, so the United States must provoke conflict as soon as possible, and find something to fix you, otherwise he will be too late. This is the theoretical basis of his book.
The biggest problem in the United States is the dollar debt crisis. He owes more than 20 trillion dollars. This number is still rising. If interest rates continue to rise, the United States will soon be unable to pay interest. Under such circumstances, why is the United States not willing to reduce military spending? That is because superior military strength is a guarantee against debt collection. Just like a bully in the village, he borrowed a lot of money and owed a huge debt. The reason why he is fine so far is that others can't beat him up. If someone can beat him, he will be beaten and crippled. This is the basis of his hegemony.
How does America project his military hegemony? Relying on his aircraft carrier combat groups, which is a pure offensive weapon.
The earliest navies relied on battleships. This is the big ship cannonism. The pinnacle of this thinking was the Japanese battleship Yamato, but the emergence of the aircraft carrier quickly eliminated the battleship. The Yamato, which was built by Japan’s national effort, was almost inactive. The aircraft carrier eliminated the battleship because the battleship’s guns could not hit the aircraft carrier, and the aircraft carrier’s carrier-based aircraft hit the battleship. Since then, it has been the world of aircraft carriers.
The United States has 11 aircraft carrier battle groups, running around the world, bullying some poor and weak countries everywhere, and it seems invincible. But the Chinese very cleverly invented the "ballistic missile attacking large sea ships" method to hit the aircraft carrier. This is Dongfeng-21D.
The DF-21D is a conventionally armed DF-21 variant designed to attack ships at sea. Sometimes dubbed the “carrier-killer”, U.S. reports suggest a range from 1,450 to 1,550 km. Similar to the DF-21B, the warhead is likely manoeuvrable and may have an accuracy of 20 m CEP. This missile entered service in 2006 along with the DF-21C. In 2013, the missile was tested against a ship target that was roughly the same size as contemporary U.S. aircraft carriers.
The price of a Dongfeng-21D is USD 10 million, and the price of an aircraft carrier is USD 4.5 billion, plus all the carrier-based aircraft, a total of USD 10 billion. Suppose a round of Dongfeng-21D saturation attack uses 10 missiles, which is USD 100 million. I can exchange USD 100 million with you. I don’t have to lose a soldier, and you have to risk 5,000 sailors on the aircraft carrier. How can this battle continue? Dongfeng -21D playing aircraft carrier is even cooler than the aircraft carrier playing battleship.
To achieve ballistic missiles hitting aircraft carriers, it is not enough to rely on Dongfeng-21D. It requires a complete set of system engineering. The most difficult part is the search, discovery and tracking of aircraft carriers. As long as you can search, track, and lock, you have completed 90% of the tasks. This requires the use of China's sky-wave over-the-horizon radar. At present, China already has two sets of sky-wave radars.
The first Chinese Over-the-Horizon Backscatter Radar [OTH-B] receiver at Sanlichong, Nanzhang, near Xiangyang, Hubei Province was completed in June 2007. The radar transmitter, about 100 km to the North-East of the receiver, is located 25km north of Zaoyang City, near the Zhouquiao reservoir.
Henri Kenhmann of EastPedulum reported 18 January 2017 that "The satellite images as of December 31, 2016 show that China has started the construction of a second trans-horizon radar (OTH-B) that is able to spot targets over a distance of more than 3,000 km ..... unlike the first Chinese OTH-B radar that targets the wide area between the coast East of China to the second chain of islands, that is to say, to Guam, where the largest US military base in the Western Pacific is, this second trans-horizon radar covers the entire peninsula of Korea, and a large part of Japan, from Hokkaido Island in the north to Okinawa Island in the south."
But, the United States say it has anti-ballistic weapons; this is nothing more than advertising. The reason is simple. North Korea has launched so many "two kicks". As long as you can successfully intercept it once, North Korea will be over. He has no way to threaten you again. So why doesn't the United States intercept? It is because he knows that it cannot be intercepted. The so-called anti-missile is only a propaganda slogan and has no actual effect. In case the interception fails, do you still have face?
Assuming that the anti-missile is true and can indeed intercept another missile, then it is a simple math. Your price for an anti-missile missile is USD 1.5 million (Patriot 3). Then I launch a common ballistic missile of USD 500,000. Let you intercept. You have to launch at least three to guarantee the interception. Then I will exchange my one USD 500,000 missile for your 3 USD 1.5 million missiles (total price USD 4.5 million). This is a good deal for me. If this battle goes on, you must go bankrupt first.
By the end of 2020, China's Beidou satellite system will achieve global coverage, and its self-produced aircraft carriers will also be launched. Industrial production capacity far exceeds that of the United States. By that time, the United States will have no advantage.
Therefore, the United States must advance the time when the conflict breaks out, and must take advantage of it early while it still has an advantage. However, China strives to postpone the time of conflict and wants to drag it to a time when its own advantages are greater. So you will find that the United States takes the initiative every day to find fault, and China takes the initiative to deal with it every day.
The author believes that 2020 and 2030 are the two key points in time. After 2020, the United States will not be able to win against China, and by 2030, China will fully surpass the United States, leaving little time for the United States. This explains why Trump recently behaves like a mad dog.
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