Such deals are lucrative and help maintain ties but security is a risk
By Vladimir Radyuhin 27 March 2012
In a twist on the dilemma facing Shakespeare’s Hamlet - ‘to be or not to be’ - Russian arms exporters now ask themselves the question ‘to sell or not to sell’ each time Beijing asks if it can buy a batch of weapons from Moscow.
To sell would mean running the risk of having the weapons cloned; not selling would mean losing out on a lucrative deal.
Earlier this month, the Moscow business daily Kommersant reported that Russia is negotiating a deal to sell China the latest multi-role long-range fighter Su-35.
Several defence sources told the paper that the contract for 48 aircraft could be worth about US$4 billion (S$5 billion), but the talks ground to a halt when Moscow demanded legal guarantees against duplication of technologies used in the Su-35.
However, many doubt that additional copyright safeguards would help. After all, an intellectual property rights agreement that Russia and China signed in 2008 did not stop the Chinese from copying Russian defence hardware.
‘The bulk of China’s combat air fleet consists of aircraft based on Russian designs,’ said Mr Vassily Kashin, a defence analyst and China expert with the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
He cited examples: the Chinese J-11 is a replica of Russia’s Su-27 air superiority fighter. The J-16 is a copy of Russia’s more advanced Su-30MKK, and the deck-based J-15 for China’s first aircraft carrier is an imitation of a test version of the Su-33 that China acquired from Ukraine.
There have been reports that China’s fifth-generation fighter, the J-20, uses some technology from the MiG 1.44 project, which was never put into production in Russia.
‘The Chinese have copied all the military hardware that they purchased from Russia over the past 20 years,’ complained Mr Alexander Khramchikhin, the deputy director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis.
When President Dmitry Medvedev visited China in 2010, he reportedly conveyed Russia’s annoyance with the cloning practice, but Moscow has never contemplated taking Beijing to court.
‘It’s hard to prove defence copying,’ said Mr Kashin. ‘They just won’t disclose technical details citing secrecy, and even if they do, in a Chinese court, the petitioner won’t have access to such testimony.’
China has long been notorious in the defence community for its product piracy, said defence expert Robert Karniol, who writes for The Straits Times.
China has been ‘looking to buy a limited number of items so as to mine its technology and fulfil a much greater requirement through domestic production’, he told this paper.
‘Russia has been the main victim of such activity simply because of its strong dominance in providing defence equipment to the China market, though this has been felt by other suppliers as well - France and Ukraine are thought to be among them,’ he added.
Massive supplies of Russian weapons and licences, as well as the brain drain to China of thousands of cash-strapped scientists and engineers after the breakup of the Soviet Union, spurred China’s leap forward in defence technologies.
Between 1992 and 2008, Russia sold China about US$30 billion worth of arms, after which arms acquisitions dropped off sharply as Chinese industry mastered the production of Russian systems. Moreover, it began to export those, undercutting Russian sales of original platforms.
Three years ago, Russia’s MiG-29 beat China’s JF-17, designed with heavy MiG inputs, in a Myanmar tender only when Russians agreed to reduce the price.
Last December, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that in 2010, China emerged as the No. 1 exporter of arms to Sub-Saharan Africa, outstripping Russia.
However, despite its cloning concerns, Russia is still willing to sell arms to China, if not the very latest items or licences.
The reasons are partly commercial, partly political. Defence is about the only area apart from natural resources where China still wants something from Russia. Moscow hopes that supplies of critical defence technologies will help keep China tied to Russia and sustain their ‘strategic partnership’.
Although China has overtaken Russia in many defence technologies, it is still years behind in some key areas, such as propulsion systems, said Mr Kashin.
‘China’s fleet of combat aircraft depends largely on the supply of Russian engines as Chinese clones and indigenous engines are inferior in terms of reliability, thrust and life cycle.’
Last year, Russian exporters signed contracts for the supply of hundreds of aircraft engines to China to the tune of about US$1 billion.
Indeed, China’s interest in the Su-35 fighter is tied mainly to the aircraft’s new engine, the 117C, which China wants to adapt to power its fifth-generation fighter, the J-20. For its part, Russia hopes to keep a step or two ahead of China.
‘By the time China catches up with Russia’s current level of engine engineering, we will have moved forward,’ said Mr Kashin, explaining the thinking of the Russian defence establishment.
Some experts, however, denounce Russia’s arms sales to China as a short-sighted policy fraught with dire security risks. They warn that China’s demographic pressures and growing need for resources will inevitably direct its geopolitical ambitions towards the north.
‘It is high time we wake up to the danger that the growing - with our help - might of the People’s Liberation Army might well turn against us,’ Mr Khramchikhin warned.
‘Moscow should stop selling them the rope to hang us with.’
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Arms sales to China: Russia in a quandary
Such deals are lucrative and help maintain ties but security is a risk
By Vladimir Radyuhin
27 March 2012
In a twist on the dilemma facing Shakespeare’s Hamlet - ‘to be or not to be’ - Russian arms exporters now ask themselves the question ‘to sell or not to sell’ each time Beijing asks if it can buy a batch of weapons from Moscow.
To sell would mean running the risk of having the weapons cloned; not selling would mean losing out on a lucrative deal.
Earlier this month, the Moscow business daily Kommersant reported that Russia is negotiating a deal to sell China the latest multi-role long-range fighter Su-35.
Several defence sources told the paper that the contract for 48 aircraft could be worth about US$4 billion (S$5 billion), but the talks ground to a halt when Moscow demanded legal guarantees against duplication of technologies used in the Su-35.
However, many doubt that additional copyright safeguards would help. After all, an intellectual property rights agreement that Russia and China signed in 2008 did not stop the Chinese from copying Russian defence hardware.
‘The bulk of China’s combat air fleet consists of aircraft based on Russian designs,’ said Mr Vassily Kashin, a defence analyst and China expert with the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
He cited examples: the Chinese J-11 is a replica of Russia’s Su-27 air superiority fighter. The J-16 is a copy of Russia’s more advanced Su-30MKK, and the deck-based J-15 for China’s first aircraft carrier is an imitation of a test version of the Su-33 that China acquired from Ukraine.
There have been reports that China’s fifth-generation fighter, the J-20, uses some technology from the MiG 1.44 project, which was never put into production in Russia.
‘The Chinese have copied all the military hardware that they purchased from Russia over the past 20 years,’ complained Mr Alexander Khramchikhin, the deputy director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis.
When President Dmitry Medvedev visited China in 2010, he reportedly conveyed Russia’s annoyance with the cloning practice, but Moscow has never contemplated taking Beijing to court.
‘It’s hard to prove defence copying,’ said Mr Kashin. ‘They just won’t disclose technical details citing secrecy, and even if they do, in a Chinese court, the petitioner won’t have access to such testimony.’
China has long been notorious in the defence community for its product piracy, said defence expert Robert Karniol, who writes for The Straits Times.
China has been ‘looking to buy a limited number of items so as to mine its technology and fulfil a much greater requirement through domestic production’, he told this paper.
‘Russia has been the main victim of such activity simply because of its strong dominance in providing defence equipment to the China market, though this has been felt by other suppliers as well - France and Ukraine are thought to be among them,’ he added.
Massive supplies of Russian weapons and licences, as well as the brain drain to China of thousands of cash-strapped scientists and engineers after the breakup of the Soviet Union, spurred China’s leap forward in defence technologies.
Between 1992 and 2008, Russia sold China about US$30 billion worth of arms, after which arms acquisitions dropped off sharply as Chinese industry mastered the production of Russian systems. Moreover, it began to export those, undercutting Russian sales of original platforms.
Three years ago, Russia’s MiG-29 beat China’s JF-17, designed with heavy MiG inputs, in a Myanmar tender only when Russians agreed to reduce the price.
Last December, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that in 2010, China emerged as the No. 1 exporter of arms to Sub-Saharan Africa, outstripping Russia.
However, despite its cloning concerns, Russia is still willing to sell arms to China, if not the very latest items or licences.
The reasons are partly commercial, partly political. Defence is about the only area apart from natural resources where China still wants something from Russia. Moscow hopes that supplies of critical defence technologies will help keep China tied to Russia and sustain their ‘strategic partnership’.
Although China has overtaken Russia in many defence technologies, it is still years behind in some key areas, such as propulsion systems, said Mr Kashin.
‘China’s fleet of combat aircraft depends largely on the supply of Russian engines as Chinese clones and indigenous engines are inferior in terms of reliability, thrust and life cycle.’
Last year, Russian exporters signed contracts for the supply of hundreds of aircraft engines to China to the tune of about US$1 billion.
Indeed, China’s interest in the Su-35 fighter is tied mainly to the aircraft’s new engine, the 117C, which China wants to adapt to power its fifth-generation fighter, the J-20. For its part, Russia hopes to keep a step or two ahead of China.
‘By the time China catches up with Russia’s current level of engine engineering, we will have moved forward,’ said Mr Kashin, explaining the thinking of the Russian defence establishment.
Some experts, however, denounce Russia’s arms sales to China as a short-sighted policy fraught with dire security risks. They warn that China’s demographic pressures and growing need for resources will inevitably direct its geopolitical ambitions towards the north.
‘It is high time we wake up to the danger that the growing - with our help - might of the People’s Liberation Army might well turn against us,’ Mr Khramchikhin warned.
‘Moscow should stop selling them the rope to hang us with.’
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