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Monday, 4 July 2011
Yingluck, thrust into a minefield of power
Thailand’s opposition Pheu Thai Party will have to tread several political minefields despite being able to form an outright government after winning a simple majority.
By Somroutai Sapsomboon in Bangkok/The Nation 04 July 2011
Thailand’s opposition Pheu Thai Party will have to tread several political minefields despite being able to form an outright government after winning a simple majority.
First and foremost is the nomination of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra as Thailand’s first female prime minister.
The process will expose her to political storms from all directions for being Thaksin’s proxy, or in his words “my clone”.
Is Thaksin ready to usher his sister into that position, and if so, is he certain that she will be able to weather the political storms ahead?
“The opposition she had to confront during the election campaign would be nothing when compared with what Yingluck would face as prime minister,” commented a seasoned political observer, a view shared by many experts.
If she manages to become prime minister, Yingluck will have to brace for tough scrutiny on her past and her background by Democrat politicians in the opposition. A censure debate could be a really bad nightmare for her.
Pheu Thai announced during the election campaign that Yingluck would be its prime-ministerial candidate, so it would not be easy for Thaksin to make an about-turn. “If it isn’t Yingluck, it will tantamount to lying to the people,” Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit said in a recent interview.
In addition to the perception that the party had lied to the people, a bigger problem could be the subsequent infighting for the prime minister’s seat, a problem that was squashed when Yingluck was nominated as Pheu Thai’s top candidate.
According to many political observers, Yongyuth had the best chance if Thaksin did not want his sister to become the next prime minister. He is a person the Pheu Thai’s big boss could trust wholeheartedly, and his rise to power would be unlikely to lead to any severe rift in the party. However, Yongyuth admitted to The Nation that “I am not ready and will never become” prime minister.
Another likely candidate for the premiership is Pracha Promnok, the man whom Pheu Thai MPs backed in December 2008 during his contest in the House of Representatives against Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva for the prime minister’s seat. Pracha at that time was with the small Puea Pandin Party.
However, Pracha’s chance is minimal, as Chalerm Yoobamrung, another senior Pheu Thai figure, is on a higher position on the party list (Chalerm is No 3, compared with Pracha’s No 5). Given the ranking on the party list, Yongyuth (No 2) is more likely to be Yingluck’s substitute, if it becomes necessary. Irrespective of who becomes the next prime minister, Pheu Thai’s problems will not stop there.
A Pheu Thai-led Cabinet will come under close public scrutiny. The interest won’t merely be on whether quality persons will be included in the Cabinet, but also whether any of the red-shirt leaders will be appointed to ministerial posts.
Red-shirt leaders who are high on Pheu Thai’s party list - such as Jatuporn Promphan, Natthawut Saikua, and Weng Tojirakarn - are expected to be rewarded for their “hard work” during last year’s political unrest that led to them to being remanded in jail.
This will become another dilemma for Thaksin, in addition to the one as to whether Yingluck should become prime minister.
Appointing red-shirt leaders facing severe charges such as terrorism and lese majeste to a Pheu Thai-led government might pose a threat to its stability. “If he does not want to have problems, Thaksin should keep the red shirts away from a Pheu Thai-led Cabinet,” said a veteran politician, whose view was shared by a banned politician.
However, if Jatuporn, Natthawut or Weng fail to get appointed to the Cabinet just because they are red-shirt leaders and face legal action, their friends in the red-shirt movement might feel offended. This could strain ties between Pheu Thai and the red shirts in the same way the ties between the Democrat Party and the yellow shirts suffered after the yellow-shirt leaders’ demands were rejected by the Democrat-led government.
Another possible “time bomb” for a Pheu Thai government involves questions about its relationship with the military and the new defence minister. There has been speculation that Pheu Thai may approach outgoing Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan to serve in the same post in its government. Earlier, it was rumoured that former Army chief General Anupong Paochinda would be given the job. Both Prawit and Anupong are close to the current Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who does not appear to be on good terms with Pheu Thai politicians.
Prawit is also close to banned politician Newin Chidchob, de facto leader of the outgoing-coalition Bhum Jai Thai Party, who is on top of Thaksin’s blacklist for “being ungrateful”. In 2008, Newin’s faction left Thaksin’s proxy party and shifted its support to the Democrat Party.
Anupong was one of the generals who overthrew Thaksin’s government in 2006 and he served as the Army chief last May when soldiers dispersed the red shirts rally. However, Anupong did work closely with Samak Sundaravej, the late prime minister and Thaksin’s proxy who led a short-lived People’s Power Party government after the 2007 election.
Another dilemma that could become a political landmine for Pheu Thai involves how to deal with those responsible for the 91 deaths during last year’s political unrest and rioting. Red-shirt leaders blamed Army commanders and politicians in power for all the deaths, while investigation showed that armed militants within the red shirts were responsible for many of the deaths, particularly those of soldiers and police.
Moreover, many of the red-shirt leaders - some of whom were Pheu Thai’s key candidates in the party-list election - are facing severe charges in connection with last year’s turmoil. It is undeniable that they played a key role in helping Thaksin’s proxy party return to power.
“Do not treat the red shirts as a problem. The Pheu Thai Party is able to exist because of the red shirts. Without the red shirts, Pheu Thai would have been beaten up long ago,” Jatuporn warned during a party meeting to select election candidates. At that time, an idea was floated that the party should not field any red shirts in the election.
The biggest political time bomb for Pheu Thai is the issue of granting amnesty to Thaksin. Although Pheu Thai has insisted amnesty is not intended for Thaksin alone, it is undeniable that the fugitive ex-prime minister is going to benefit - and it is also the main reason Thaksin sent his youngest sister into the political fray.
There could also be other political landmines Pheu Thai could trip over as time passes. A veteran political observer said it would be far more difficult for the party - and Thaksin - to deal with an election victory than a loss.
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Yingluck, thrust into a minefield of power
By Somroutai Sapsomboon in Bangkok/The Nation
04 July 2011
Thailand’s opposition Pheu Thai Party will have to tread several political minefields despite being able to form an outright government after winning a simple majority.
First and foremost is the nomination of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra as Thailand’s first female prime minister.
The process will expose her to political storms from all directions for being Thaksin’s proxy, or in his words “my clone”.
Is Thaksin ready to usher his sister into that position, and if so, is he certain that she will be able to weather the political storms ahead?
“The opposition she had to confront during the election campaign would be nothing when compared with what Yingluck would face as prime minister,” commented a seasoned political observer, a view shared by many experts.
If she manages to become prime minister, Yingluck will have to brace for tough scrutiny on her past and her background by Democrat politicians in the opposition. A censure debate could be a really bad nightmare for her.
Pheu Thai announced during the election campaign that Yingluck would be its prime-ministerial candidate, so it would not be easy for Thaksin to make an about-turn. “If it isn’t Yingluck, it will tantamount to lying to the people,” Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit said in a recent interview.
In addition to the perception that the party had lied to the people, a bigger problem could be the subsequent infighting for the prime minister’s seat, a problem that was squashed when Yingluck was nominated as Pheu Thai’s top candidate.
According to many political observers, Yongyuth had the best chance if Thaksin did not want his sister to become the next prime minister. He is a person the Pheu Thai’s big boss could trust wholeheartedly, and his rise to power would be unlikely to lead to any severe rift in the party. However, Yongyuth admitted to The Nation that “I am not ready and will never become” prime minister.
Another likely candidate for the premiership is Pracha Promnok, the man whom Pheu Thai MPs backed in December 2008 during his contest in the House of Representatives against Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva for the prime minister’s seat. Pracha at that time was with the small Puea Pandin Party.
However, Pracha’s chance is minimal, as Chalerm Yoobamrung, another senior Pheu Thai figure, is on a higher position on the party list (Chalerm is No 3, compared with Pracha’s No 5). Given the ranking on the party list, Yongyuth (No 2) is more likely to be Yingluck’s substitute, if it becomes necessary. Irrespective of who becomes the next prime minister, Pheu Thai’s problems will not stop there.
A Pheu Thai-led Cabinet will come under close public scrutiny. The interest won’t merely be on whether quality persons will be included in the Cabinet, but also whether any of the red-shirt leaders will be appointed to ministerial posts.
Red-shirt leaders who are high on Pheu Thai’s party list - such as Jatuporn Promphan, Natthawut Saikua, and Weng Tojirakarn - are expected to be rewarded for their “hard work” during last year’s political unrest that led to them to being remanded in jail.
This will become another dilemma for Thaksin, in addition to the one as to whether Yingluck should become prime minister.
Appointing red-shirt leaders facing severe charges such as terrorism and lese majeste to a Pheu Thai-led government might pose a threat to its stability. “If he does not want to have problems, Thaksin should keep the red shirts away from a Pheu Thai-led Cabinet,” said a veteran politician, whose view was shared by a banned politician.
However, if Jatuporn, Natthawut or Weng fail to get appointed to the Cabinet just because they are red-shirt leaders and face legal action, their friends in the red-shirt movement might feel offended. This could strain ties between Pheu Thai and the red shirts in the same way the ties between the Democrat Party and the yellow shirts suffered after the yellow-shirt leaders’ demands were rejected by the Democrat-led government.
Another possible “time bomb” for a Pheu Thai government involves questions about its relationship with the military and the new defence minister. There has been speculation that Pheu Thai may approach outgoing Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan to serve in the same post in its government. Earlier, it was rumoured that former Army chief General Anupong Paochinda would be given the job. Both Prawit and Anupong are close to the current Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who does not appear to be on good terms with Pheu Thai politicians.
Prawit is also close to banned politician Newin Chidchob, de facto leader of the outgoing-coalition Bhum Jai Thai Party, who is on top of Thaksin’s blacklist for “being ungrateful”. In 2008, Newin’s faction left Thaksin’s proxy party and shifted its support to the Democrat Party.
Anupong was one of the generals who overthrew Thaksin’s government in 2006 and he served as the Army chief last May when soldiers dispersed the red shirts rally. However, Anupong did work closely with Samak Sundaravej, the late prime minister and Thaksin’s proxy who led a short-lived People’s Power Party government after the 2007 election.
Another dilemma that could become a political landmine for Pheu Thai involves how to deal with those responsible for the 91 deaths during last year’s political unrest and rioting. Red-shirt leaders blamed Army commanders and politicians in power for all the deaths, while investigation showed that armed militants within the red shirts were responsible for many of the deaths, particularly those of soldiers and police.
Moreover, many of the red-shirt leaders - some of whom were Pheu Thai’s key candidates in the party-list election - are facing severe charges in connection with last year’s turmoil. It is undeniable that they played a key role in helping Thaksin’s proxy party return to power.
“Do not treat the red shirts as a problem. The Pheu Thai Party is able to exist because of the red shirts. Without the red shirts, Pheu Thai would have been beaten up long ago,” Jatuporn warned during a party meeting to select election candidates. At that time, an idea was floated that the party should not field any red shirts in the election.
The biggest political time bomb for Pheu Thai is the issue of granting amnesty to Thaksin. Although Pheu Thai has insisted amnesty is not intended for Thaksin alone, it is undeniable that the fugitive ex-prime minister is going to benefit - and it is also the main reason Thaksin sent his youngest sister into the political fray.
There could also be other political landmines Pheu Thai could trip over as time passes. A veteran political observer said it would be far more difficult for the party - and Thaksin - to deal with an election victory than a loss.
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