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Wednesday, 3 February 2010
Arms deal unlikely to hurt cross-strait thaw
Washington’s latest plan to sell US$6.4 million worth of arms to Taiwan will have little impact on warming cross-strait relations, considering that it involves less sensitive weapons, analysts say.
Beijing shows restraint over Taiwan’s purchase of less-sophisticated US equipment
Lawrence Chung in Taipei 01 February 2010
Washington’s latest plan to sell US$6.4 million worth of arms to Taiwan will have little impact on warming cross-strait relations, considering that it involves less sensitive weapons, analysts say.
Nor will it seriously upset the highly delicate triangle of Sino-US-Taiwan relations, they note.
The arms sale plan, announced shortly after Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou left Los Angeles on a transit stop on his way back to Taiwan from the Dominican Republic, drew an angry protest from Beijing. But it has focused its criticism on Washington while doing nothing so far to punish Taiwan.
The only reference so far about Taiwan in this dispute was a statement issued in Beijing by the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which stressed that the deal would only create a wrong signal to pro-independence activists in Taiwan and “ran counter both to the sound development of the cross-strait relations and to the fundamental interests of the Taiwan people in the long run”.
Analysts say while it is routine for the mainland to protest against arms sales to Taiwan, Beijing has been careful in both words and deeds not to sabotage cross-strait relations, which have dramatically improved since Ma took office in May 2008 and adopted a policy of engaging the mainland.
They said the weapons to be sold to Taiwan could in no way create a serious threat to the mainland.
“Although these weapons can somewhat increase Taiwan’s defence capability, they are falling far behind what is needed really to be able to defend Taiwan,” said Alexander Wang Chieh-cheng, professor at the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University.
Professor Lin Chong-pin, at the same institute, said while Beijing was expected to be infuriated by the deal, it was unlikely to make any retaliatory move against Taiwan. “The grand strategy of Beijing is well oiled. It will avoid making things uncontrollable,” he said.
Lin Cheng-yi, a senior researcher of American and European studies at Taiwan’s top academic institution Academia Sinica, said as long as the more advanced C/D versions of F-16 fighter jets and the submarines were not included in the deal, the impact on Taiwan would be very limited. “And the impact on the US will be short-lived, too,” he said.
Taiwan has been seeking to buy the advanced C/D versions of F-16 fighter jets and diesel submarines from the United States, but so far Washington has not approved such requests.
Yen Chen-shen, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations under National Chengchi University, said President Hu Jintao’s planned US visit later this year would be a good occasion to gauge the true impact of the arms deal on Sino-US ties.
He said by selling those less-sensitive weapons to Taiwan, the US has slightly improved the military balance now strongly tilted towards China while avoiding seriously angering Beijing.
“It also helps the Ma government find a good argument in defending its policy to engage the mainland when it tries to seek support from the opposition or the pro-independence camp in Taiwan,” he said.
The pro-independence camp has expressed worries that without adequate defensive capability, the Ma government would have no teeth at all in dealing with the mainland and will eventually be swallowed up by Beijing.
Yesterday, it criticised the arms deal as “trash” while noting that Taiwan has to pay a huge bill for the package which is well above market prices. In response, Premier Wu Den-yih said his government would seek to obtain the package at a “reasonable price.”
Taiwan needs an additional NT$100 billion (HK$24.3 billion) to buy the weapons, all of which were proposed by Ma’s predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, between 2002 and 2007.
1 comment:
Arms deal unlikely to hurt cross-strait thaw
Beijing shows restraint over Taiwan’s purchase of less-sophisticated US equipment
Lawrence Chung in Taipei
01 February 2010
Washington’s latest plan to sell US$6.4 million worth of arms to Taiwan will have little impact on warming cross-strait relations, considering that it involves less sensitive weapons, analysts say.
Nor will it seriously upset the highly delicate triangle of Sino-US-Taiwan relations, they note.
The arms sale plan, announced shortly after Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou left Los Angeles on a transit stop on his way back to Taiwan from the Dominican Republic, drew an angry protest from Beijing. But it has focused its criticism on Washington while doing nothing so far to punish Taiwan.
The only reference so far about Taiwan in this dispute was a statement issued in Beijing by the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which stressed that the deal would only create a wrong signal to pro-independence activists in Taiwan and “ran counter both to the sound development of the cross-strait relations and to the fundamental interests of the Taiwan people in the long run”.
Analysts say while it is routine for the mainland to protest against arms sales to Taiwan, Beijing has been careful in both words and deeds not to sabotage cross-strait relations, which have dramatically improved since Ma took office in May 2008 and adopted a policy of engaging the mainland.
They said the weapons to be sold to Taiwan could in no way create a serious threat to the mainland.
“Although these weapons can somewhat increase Taiwan’s defence capability, they are falling far behind what is needed really to be able to defend Taiwan,” said Alexander Wang Chieh-cheng, professor at the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University.
Professor Lin Chong-pin, at the same institute, said while Beijing was expected to be infuriated by the deal, it was unlikely to make any retaliatory move against Taiwan. “The grand strategy of Beijing is well oiled. It will avoid making things uncontrollable,” he said.
Lin Cheng-yi, a senior researcher of American and European studies at Taiwan’s top academic institution Academia Sinica, said as long as the more advanced C/D versions of F-16 fighter jets and the submarines were not included in the deal, the impact on Taiwan would be very limited. “And the impact on the US will be short-lived, too,” he said.
Taiwan has been seeking to buy the advanced C/D versions of F-16 fighter jets and diesel submarines from the United States, but so far Washington has not approved such requests.
Yen Chen-shen, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations under National Chengchi University, said President Hu Jintao’s planned US visit later this year would be a good occasion to gauge the true impact of the arms deal on Sino-US ties.
He said by selling those less-sensitive weapons to Taiwan, the US has slightly improved the military balance now strongly tilted towards China while avoiding seriously angering Beijing.
“It also helps the Ma government find a good argument in defending its policy to engage the mainland when it tries to seek support from the opposition or the pro-independence camp in Taiwan,” he said.
The pro-independence camp has expressed worries that without adequate defensive capability, the Ma government would have no teeth at all in dealing with the mainland and will eventually be swallowed up by Beijing.
Yesterday, it criticised the arms deal as “trash” while noting that Taiwan has to pay a huge bill for the package which is well above market prices. In response, Premier Wu Den-yih said his government would seek to obtain the package at a “reasonable price.”
Taiwan needs an additional NT$100 billion (HK$24.3 billion) to buy the weapons, all of which were proposed by Ma’s predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, between 2002 and 2007.
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