The People’s Liberation Army is close to fielding the world’s first anti-ship ballistic missile, according to US Navy intelligence.
The missile, with a range of almost 1,500 kilometres, would be fired from mobile land-based launchers and was “specifically designed to defeat US carrier strike groups”, the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) reported.
Five of the US Navy’s 11 carriers are based in the Pacific and operate freely in international waters near China. Their mission includes defending Taiwan should Beijing seek to use force in its claim to the island.
The missile could turn the region into a “no-go zone” for US carriers, said Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington.
Scott Bray, who wrote the report on the PLA Navy, said Beijing had made “remarkable progress” on the missile. “In little over a decade, China has taken the programme from the conceptual phase to near fielding a combat-ready missile,” he said. Bray’s report was issued in July but provided to the media yesterday.
Beijing is also developing an over-the-horizon radar network to spot ships at great distances from the mainland, and its navy since 2000 has tripled to 36 from 12 the number of vessels carrying anti-ship weapons, Bray, the ONI’s senior officer for intelligence on China, said.
The new missile, believed to be a variant of the DF-21 ballistic missile, would support Beijing’s “access-denial” strategy to detect and, if necessary, attack US warships “at progressively greater distances” from the mainland, Krepinevich said.
In a speech in September US Defence Secretary Dr Robert Gates said Beijing’s “investments in anti-ship weaponry and ballistic missiles could threaten America’s primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific - particularly our forward bases and carrier strike groups”.
Admiral Gary Roughead, chief of US naval operations, said the new missile was one factor in his decision last year to cut the DDG-1000 destroyer programme from eight ships to three, because the vessels lacked a missile-defence capability. The US Navy instead plans to build up to seven more Lockheed Martin Aegis-class DDG-51 destroyers, with the newest radar and missiles.
Beijing’s ballistic missile “portends the sophistication of the threats that we’re going to see”, Roughead said earlier this year.
The missile has been ground-tested three times since 2006 and conducted no flight tests yet, US Navy officials said.
General Xu Caihou, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commissions, played down the weapon’s significance.
“It is a limited capability” to meet “the minimum requirement of” China’s national security, Xu said.
Mark Stokes, an analyst who has studied the programme, said the US Navy’s assessment indicated that Beijing started to develop the weapon after the March 1996 Taiwan crisis. “That’s when the Clinton administration sent two aircraft carriers and escort warships into the Taiwan Strait and the surrounding area” after the PLA fired missiles near the island before its presidential election.
An article in the May edition of Proceedings, a magazine published by the US Naval Institute, said the missile “could alter the rules in the Pacific and place US Navy carrier strike groups in jeopardy”.
“The mere perception that China might have an anti-ship ballistic missile capability could be a game-changer, with profound consequences for deterrence, military operations and the balance of power in the Western Pacific,” it said.
Paul Giarra, a defence consultant who studies China’s weapons, called the missile “a remarkably asymmetric Chinese attempt to control the sea from the shore”. He said: “No American military operations - air or ground - are feasible in a region where the US Navy cannot operate.”
The missiles were intended for launch to a general location where their guidance systems took over and spotted carriers for attack with warheads intended to neutralise the ships’ threat by destroying aircraft on decks, launching gear and control towers, Giarra said.
The Pentagon, in its latest annual report on Beijing’s military, for the first time included a sketch of the notional flight profile of the new missile, but gave little additional detail.
Bray said Beijing had the initial elements of its new over-the-horizon radar that could provide the general location of vessels before launching the new missile.
Stokes said the Sky Wave radar could spot vessels 3,000 kilometres away. Over-the-horizon radar bounces signals off the ionosphere, the uppermost layer of the atmosphere. The radar was aided by reconnaissance satellites, another US Navy official said. There were 33 in orbit and that may grow to 65 by 2014, 11 of which would be capable of conducting ocean surveillance, he said.
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US ‘fears’ anti-ship ballistic missile
Analysts say PLA weapon almost ready
Bloomberg
18 November 2009
The People’s Liberation Army is close to fielding the world’s first anti-ship ballistic missile, according to US Navy intelligence.
The missile, with a range of almost 1,500 kilometres, would be fired from mobile land-based launchers and was “specifically designed to defeat US carrier strike groups”, the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) reported.
Five of the US Navy’s 11 carriers are based in the Pacific and operate freely in international waters near China. Their mission includes defending Taiwan should Beijing seek to use force in its claim to the island.
The missile could turn the region into a “no-go zone” for US carriers, said Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington.
Scott Bray, who wrote the report on the PLA Navy, said Beijing had made “remarkable progress” on the missile. “In little over a decade, China has taken the programme from the conceptual phase to near fielding a combat-ready missile,” he said. Bray’s report was issued in July but provided to the media yesterday.
Beijing is also developing an over-the-horizon radar network to spot ships at great distances from the mainland, and its navy since 2000 has tripled to 36 from 12 the number of vessels carrying anti-ship weapons, Bray, the ONI’s senior officer for intelligence on China, said.
The new missile, believed to be a variant of the DF-21 ballistic missile, would support Beijing’s “access-denial” strategy to detect and, if necessary, attack US warships “at progressively greater distances” from the mainland, Krepinevich said.
In a speech in September US Defence Secretary Dr Robert Gates said Beijing’s “investments in anti-ship weaponry and ballistic missiles could threaten America’s primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific - particularly our forward bases and carrier strike groups”.
Admiral Gary Roughead, chief of US naval operations, said the new missile was one factor in his decision last year to cut the DDG-1000 destroyer programme from eight ships to three, because the vessels lacked a missile-defence capability. The US Navy instead plans to build up to seven more Lockheed Martin Aegis-class DDG-51 destroyers, with the newest radar and missiles.
Beijing’s ballistic missile “portends the sophistication of the threats that we’re going to see”, Roughead said earlier this year.
The missile has been ground-tested three times since 2006 and conducted no flight tests yet, US Navy officials said.
General Xu Caihou, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commissions, played down the weapon’s significance.
“It is a limited capability” to meet “the minimum requirement of” China’s national security, Xu said.
Mark Stokes, an analyst who has studied the programme, said the US Navy’s assessment indicated that Beijing started to develop the weapon after the March 1996 Taiwan crisis. “That’s when the Clinton administration sent two aircraft carriers and escort warships into the Taiwan Strait and the surrounding area” after the PLA fired missiles near the island before its presidential election.
An article in the May edition of Proceedings, a magazine published by the US Naval Institute, said the missile “could alter the rules in the Pacific and place US Navy carrier strike groups in jeopardy”.
“The mere perception that China might have an anti-ship ballistic missile capability could be a game-changer, with profound consequences for deterrence, military operations and the balance of power in the Western Pacific,” it said.
Paul Giarra, a defence consultant who studies China’s weapons, called the missile “a remarkably asymmetric Chinese attempt to control the sea from the shore”. He said: “No American military operations - air or ground - are feasible in a region where the US Navy cannot operate.”
The missiles were intended for launch to a general location where their guidance systems took over and spotted carriers for attack with warheads intended to neutralise the ships’ threat by destroying aircraft on decks, launching gear and control towers, Giarra said.
The Pentagon, in its latest annual report on Beijing’s military, for the first time included a sketch of the notional flight profile of the new missile, but gave little additional detail.
Bray said Beijing had the initial elements of its new over-the-horizon radar that could provide the general location of vessels before launching the new missile.
Stokes said the Sky Wave radar could spot vessels 3,000 kilometres away. Over-the-horizon radar bounces signals off the ionosphere, the uppermost layer of the atmosphere. The radar was aided by reconnaissance satellites, another US Navy official said. There were 33 in orbit and that may grow to 65 by 2014, 11 of which would be capable of conducting ocean surveillance, he said.
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