When someone shares with you something of value, you have an obligation to share it with others.
Monday, 23 November 2009
HSI will break 30,000 mark, says BNP analyst
Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index will break 30,000 points by next year, while property prices will rise 30-40 per cent in the next 18 months, BNP Paribas’ leading analyst for the region predicted on Monday.
Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index will break 30,000 points by next year, while property prices will rise 30-40 per cent in the next 18 months, BNP Paribas’ leading analyst for the region predicted on Monday.
Erwin Sanft, managing director at BNP Paribas Asia, said Hong Kong would experience a “huge boom” in the next five years as mainland moves to make Hong Kong the offshore foreign exchange centre for the country.
“This is going to be the final phase where mainland institutions are going to make China their home,” said Sanft who is also head of the bank’s China and Hong Kong research team.
“They are going to have the largest share of the local stock market, drive a lot of the property transactions and dramatically increase the amount of forex being done,” he told reporters at a news conference.
Hong Kong’s central bank warned last week that spiralling asset prices may raise the risk of a bubble after Hong Kong attracted a record HK$567.5 billion in fund inflows between October 1, last year and November 13, this year.
Sanft is overweight on the Hong Kong financial sector for next year, with HSBC and Bank of China his top picks. He is bullish on companies in the property, resource and consumer sectors. Top picks include BYD, China Mengniu Dairy and A8 Digital Music.
Sanft said mainland’s GDP would overtake the United States by 2020 and added that current growth, particularly in the service sector, was underestimated by some 20 per cent.
He expects mainland’s real GDP to grow by 9.5 per cent next year but cautioned that if the country continues loose monetary and fiscal policies, the chances of a bubble will be very big.
Mainland will depeg from the US dollar half way through next year, Isaac Meng, a senior economist at BNP Paribas Asia, predicted. After this date, the renminbi will likely appreciate by 6 per cent at an annualised pace for the following 8 months.
Inflation will be the next big issue for investors, according to Sanft, with inflation remerging quickly in mainland next year. While mainland had deflation of -0.5 per cent in October, Sanft predicts annual growth in the consumer price index will reach 3 per cent by February next year and 5 per cent by the middle of next year.
1 comment:
HSI will break 30,000 mark, says BNP analyst
Reuters in Hong Kong
23 November 2009
Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index will break 30,000 points by next year, while property prices will rise 30-40 per cent in the next 18 months, BNP Paribas’ leading analyst for the region predicted on Monday.
Erwin Sanft, managing director at BNP Paribas Asia, said Hong Kong would experience a “huge boom” in the next five years as mainland moves to make Hong Kong the offshore foreign exchange centre for the country.
“This is going to be the final phase where mainland institutions are going to make China their home,” said Sanft who is also head of the bank’s China and Hong Kong research team.
“They are going to have the largest share of the local stock market, drive a lot of the property transactions and dramatically increase the amount of forex being done,” he told reporters at a news conference.
Hong Kong’s central bank warned last week that spiralling asset prices may raise the risk of a bubble after Hong Kong attracted a record HK$567.5 billion in fund inflows between October 1, last year and November 13, this year.
Sanft is overweight on the Hong Kong financial sector for next year, with HSBC and Bank of China his top picks. He is bullish on companies in the property, resource and consumer sectors. Top picks include BYD, China Mengniu Dairy and A8 Digital Music.
Sanft said mainland’s GDP would overtake the United States by 2020 and added that current growth, particularly in the service sector, was underestimated by some 20 per cent.
He expects mainland’s real GDP to grow by 9.5 per cent next year but cautioned that if the country continues loose monetary and fiscal policies, the chances of a bubble will be very big.
Mainland will depeg from the US dollar half way through next year, Isaac Meng, a senior economist at BNP Paribas Asia, predicted. After this date, the renminbi will likely appreciate by 6 per cent at an annualised pace for the following 8 months.
Inflation will be the next big issue for investors, according to Sanft, with inflation remerging quickly in mainland next year. While mainland had deflation of -0.5 per cent in October, Sanft predicts annual growth in the consumer price index will reach 3 per cent by February next year and 5 per cent by the middle of next year.
Post a Comment