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Saturday, 31 October 2009
A diplomatic victory for China
As tensions in the South China Sea rise, Beijing appears to have scored a quiet diplomatic victory by ensuring the Asean grouping is unlikely to get involved in territorial disputes any time soon.
As tensions in the South China Sea rise, Beijing appears to have scored a quiet diplomatic victory by ensuring the Asean grouping is unlikely to get involved in territorial disputes any time soon.
Beijing’s diplomats, publicly and privately, have been pushing a line that disputes should be solved bilaterally between China and individual claimants rather than with the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations - a move that analysts believe effectively strengthens Beijing’s position given its emerging economic and military power.
South China Sea disputes were kept from the agenda during last week’s annual Asean leaders’ summit in Thailand, and barely surfaced in informal sessions, diplomats said. “Beijing didn’t want it discussed and it wasn’t,” one envoy involved said. “From last week’s meeting you’d have no idea that we are all privately worried about the potential for conflict down the track ... it’s the usual Asean head in the sand. Beijing has Asean right where it wants it.”
Dr. Jusuf Wanandi, an Indonesian academic, said unless Asean countries found a sudden drive to deal with China on the issue, they would lose any prospect of playing a meaningful role in easing future tensions.
“I’ve been saying for a long time that if Asean doesn’t hang together, it will hang separately. And the South China Sea is showing that that is starting to happen,” said Wanandi, a senior fellow at Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s a lost opportunity for Asean ... it has got to show more unity in dealing with China.”
In 2002, Asean and China signed a declaration on the South China Sea widely hailed as an important first step in lowering tensions and creating a framework for future talks. On top of calling for restraint and preserving freedom of navigation in key shipping lanes, the declaration called for future talks to create a legally binding code of conduct.
It is increasingly doubtful whether those talks will ever start, although China has boosted political and economic ties with Asean on other fronts. While Beijing’s officials have been careful to recently voice support for the declaration and insist they were willing to talk, they also made clear the limits of Asean. “It’s not helpful to discuss the sensitive territorial dispute under the framework of China and Asean co-operation,” Dr. Xue Hanqin, China’s ambassador to Asean, said ahead of last weekend’s meeting to explain why the sea disputes should be kept from the agenda. “The Asean meetings should be a framework for co-operation, but not argument.”
The disputes involved China and South China Sea coastal states, not Asean as a whole, she added.
The sea’s international shipping lanes are straddled by the Spratly Islands archipelago, claimed in its entirety by mainland China and Vietnam and, in part, by the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. Taiwan’s claims mirror those of the mainland.
China and Vietnam also claim the Paracels group to the north, which is occupied by China.
Regional military officials warn that Chinese, Vietnamese and US naval activity is intensifying in the sea, a reflection of China’s military build-up and Vietnam’s desire to maintain the 20-odd island bases it holds. The US is particularly keen to keep a close watch on China’s new submarine base on Hainan Island.
Asserting its claim to sovereignty over much of the South China Sea, China has warned foreign oil giants against completing exploration contracts with Vietnam and the Philippines. Washington has publicly objected to threats made against US firms in what it terms to be legal deals.
Chinese academics and military strategists, and bloggers, are also highlighting the importance of the sea’s oil and military potential, raising concern at Vietnam’s presence.
Dr. Ian Storey, a fellow at Singapore’s Institute of South East Asian Studies, said it was clear that China was hardening its position just as Vietnam was to take over the chairmanship of Asean for the next year.
“Everyone seems rhetorically committed to the declaration but the reality is, I’m afraid, that the prospects of future discussions are probably already dead,” he said. “There has always been this duality where China talks of peaceful resolutions in accordance with international laws, then acts to oppose internationalising or regionalising this issue ... we can now see that in sharp relief.
“Dealing with countries one on one puts [China] in a much stronger position ... the US has always liked to [work] that way - its basic great power diplomacy and we can see China is doing the same thing.”
Professor Carl Thayer, a Vietnam specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy, said Hanoi was the big loser from Asean weakness on the issue. “I don’t think a code of conduct is likely ... my view is that China is getting more confident and is willing to pre-empt and to scotch any bid to internationalise the South China Sea dispute. I think the tensions are going to be with us for some time.”
2 comments:
A diplomatic victory for China
Greg Torode
31 October 2009
As tensions in the South China Sea rise, Beijing appears to have scored a quiet diplomatic victory by ensuring the Asean grouping is unlikely to get involved in territorial disputes any time soon.
Beijing’s diplomats, publicly and privately, have been pushing a line that disputes should be solved bilaterally between China and individual claimants rather than with the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations - a move that analysts believe effectively strengthens Beijing’s position given its emerging economic and military power.
South China Sea disputes were kept from the agenda during last week’s annual Asean leaders’ summit in Thailand, and barely surfaced in informal sessions, diplomats said. “Beijing didn’t want it discussed and it wasn’t,” one envoy involved said. “From last week’s meeting you’d have no idea that we are all privately worried about the potential for conflict down the track ... it’s the usual Asean head in the sand. Beijing has Asean right where it wants it.”
Dr. Jusuf Wanandi, an Indonesian academic, said unless Asean countries found a sudden drive to deal with China on the issue, they would lose any prospect of playing a meaningful role in easing future tensions.
“I’ve been saying for a long time that if Asean doesn’t hang together, it will hang separately. And the South China Sea is showing that that is starting to happen,” said Wanandi, a senior fellow at Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s a lost opportunity for Asean ... it has got to show more unity in dealing with China.”
In 2002, Asean and China signed a declaration on the South China Sea widely hailed as an important first step in lowering tensions and creating a framework for future talks. On top of calling for restraint and preserving freedom of navigation in key shipping lanes, the declaration called for future talks to create a legally binding code of conduct.
It is increasingly doubtful whether those talks will ever start, although China has boosted political and economic ties with Asean on other fronts. While Beijing’s officials have been careful to recently voice support for the declaration and insist they were willing to talk, they also made clear the limits of Asean. “It’s not helpful to discuss the sensitive territorial dispute under the framework of China and Asean co-operation,” Dr. Xue Hanqin, China’s ambassador to Asean, said ahead of last weekend’s meeting to explain why the sea disputes should be kept from the agenda. “The Asean meetings should be a framework for co-operation, but not argument.”
The disputes involved China and South China Sea coastal states, not Asean as a whole, she added.
The sea’s international shipping lanes are straddled by the Spratly Islands archipelago, claimed in its entirety by mainland China and Vietnam and, in part, by the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. Taiwan’s claims mirror those of the mainland.
China and Vietnam also claim the Paracels group to the north, which is occupied by China.
Regional military officials warn that Chinese, Vietnamese and US naval activity is intensifying in the sea, a reflection of China’s military build-up and Vietnam’s desire to maintain the 20-odd island bases it holds. The US is particularly keen to keep a close watch on China’s new submarine base on Hainan Island.
Asserting its claim to sovereignty over much of the South China Sea, China has warned foreign oil giants against completing exploration contracts with Vietnam and the Philippines. Washington has publicly objected to threats made against US firms in what it terms to be legal deals.
Chinese academics and military strategists, and bloggers, are also highlighting the importance of the sea’s oil and military potential, raising concern at Vietnam’s presence.
Dr. Ian Storey, a fellow at Singapore’s Institute of South East Asian Studies, said it was clear that China was hardening its position just as Vietnam was to take over the chairmanship of Asean for the next year.
“Everyone seems rhetorically committed to the declaration but the reality is, I’m afraid, that the prospects of future discussions are probably already dead,” he said. “There has always been this duality where China talks of peaceful resolutions in accordance with international laws, then acts to oppose internationalising or regionalising this issue ... we can now see that in sharp relief.
“Dealing with countries one on one puts [China] in a much stronger position ... the US has always liked to [work] that way - its basic great power diplomacy and we can see China is doing the same thing.”
Professor Carl Thayer, a Vietnam specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy, said Hanoi was the big loser from Asean weakness on the issue. “I don’t think a code of conduct is likely ... my view is that China is getting more confident and is willing to pre-empt and to scotch any bid to internationalise the South China Sea dispute. I think the tensions are going to be with us for some time.”
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