Monday, 18 May 2009
Working with China
It’s a mistake for America to look China in the eye and only see an enemy. Sure, to characterise that two-way relationship as a blissful friendship would be to transform a willing suspension of disbelief into absurdity. But deep mutual interests can bring two otherwise antagonistic national powers close together in ways that make professions of sincere friendship unnecessary and even redundant. Especially among nation-states, an alliance of mutual interests is generally the best possible bedrock for a relationship. Mutual needs that persist for the foreseeable future trump hot love that lasts only a fortnight.
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Working with China
Tom Plate
18 May 2009
It’s a mistake for America to look China in the eye and only see an enemy. Sure, to characterise that two-way relationship as a blissful friendship would be to transform a willing suspension of disbelief into absurdity. But deep mutual interests can bring two otherwise antagonistic national powers close together in ways that make professions of sincere friendship unnecessary and even redundant. Especially among nation-states, an alliance of mutual interests is generally the best possible bedrock for a relationship. Mutual needs that persist for the foreseeable future trump hot love that lasts only a fortnight.
Still, as the famous British Conservative political figure, the late Alan Clark, said: “There are no true friends in politics. We are all sharks circling, and waiting, for traces of blood to appear in the water.” That’s right, but we are not proposing sophistic amity between Beijing and Washington but - rather - a non-altruistic alliance. The roiling world economic crisis should convince everyone that a worldwide economic system does exist and that, at the moment, it is royally and scarily shaky.
And so in this turbulent atmosphere, elements of the US Congress waltz in to propose economic war on China because of the country’s currency “manipulation” (cheap Chinese dollars make their exports cheaper and thus more insidiously saleable in the US, and everywhere); and because of its “excessively” high domestic savings rate (that, it is claimed, contributed mightily to the west’s bubble). Congress might as well go ahead and shoot itself in both feet simultaneously if it wants to do this.
Consider the reality: mainland authorities will not inflate the value of the yuan unless and until they judge it in their economic interest to do so. They are not there yet. Meanwhile, their exercise of national economic sovereignty has a potential bonus for the world: the Chinese economy looks to be emerging from the swamp of deep recession faster than America’s. A resurrected Chinese economy would not only be good for the US economy directly, it would be good for China’s neighbours. When healthy, its demand for goods and services - from Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia and the world at large - puts a spring in everyone’s economic step. Without China back to normal - or better - it is hard to imagine a true sanguine global recovery.
Chinese leaders themselves are well aware that a rising tide lifts all boats. And these days, in Chinese circles, there’s a growing consensus for a global Marshall plan to earmark huge developmental sums for troubled economies.
This idea has been put forward with special acuity by Justin Yifu Lin. The former high Chinese official who is one of the country’s most famous economists is currently the World Bank’s chief economist and senior vice-president. He is the first chief economist of the World Bank to hail from a developing country.
Beijing would appear to be pushing hard behind Dr Lin. A recent signed article from the research arm of the all-powerful State Council that endorsed Dr Lin’s idea appeared conspicuously in China Daily. It proposed that it was in the self-interest of countries to help lift up the economies of all our global partners and markets. “During the current economic crisis, many capital-strapped developing countries will find it hard to get loans for their infrastructure projects,” wrote researcher Ding Yifan. “With its colossal foreign exchange reserves and experienced engineering teams, China is capable of providing aid ... that will not only benefit the recipients but create jobs for China.”
Friendship, it is being suggested, has nothing whatsoever to do with anything, whereas mutual benefit has everything to do with everything. The US should jump onto the worldwide Marshall Plan bandwagon, even if has been championed by a former Chinese official - or perhaps especially because of that.
In any event, it would not be in its economic - or political and diplomatic - interest to be left out. Congress must begin to understand this. Not everything China proposes is bad for the US.
Veteran American journalist Tom Plate is a board member of the Pacific Century Institute and a long-time member of the Pacific Council on International Policy
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