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Wednesday, 8 April 2009
G2 appeals to some but Beijing unlikely to back it
A week after what appeared to be the advent of a new world order at the Group of 20 summit in London, the idea of a “G2”, which would put the US and China at the head of international affairs, is gaining momentum.
G2 appeals to some but Beijing unlikely to back it
Agence France-Presse in Beijing 8 April 2009
A week after what appeared to be the advent of a new world order at the Group of 20 summit in London, the idea of a “G2”, which would put the US and China at the head of international affairs, is gaining momentum.
But analysts say the concept of “Chimerica”, meant to reflect a new geostrategic situation created by China’s rise, is neither realistic nor likely to appeal to Beijing.
First raised in US academic circles in 2006, the idea was floated again by former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski in Beijing in January as the two nations celebrated 30 years of diplomatic ties.
The concept has attracted a lot of interest from Chinese researchers and columnists, particularly since the G20 meeting last week.
Dr Brzezinski, who was also an adviser to US President Barack Obama during his campaign for the White House, suggested an “informal G2” for discussions “not just about bilateral relationships, but about the world in general”.
In his meeting with President Hu Jintao in London, Mr. Obama took a step in that direction, agreeing to “strengthen ties at all levels”.
The two also launched a strategic dialogue to be held each year that would cover such issues as the economy, the environment and relations with Iran, Sudan and Zimbabwe.
The concept of the G2 “is supported by those in the United States who are favourable to a strategy of co-operation with Beijing, in contrast to the neoconservatives’ view”, said Valerie Niquet, director of Centre Asie Ifri, a Paris-based research body.
This strategy is tempting at a time when the G8 is regarded by some as obsolete and the G20 is seen as too diluted to respond to challenges.
The financial crisis has highlighted the interdependence of the world’s No1 and No3 economies, while climate change has shown that the two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases must work together.
“On a lot of issues the only two real partners are China and the United States,” said Jean-Francois Di Meglio of the Paris-based research group the Asia Centre. But the yuan would hold back the alliance, he said.
“There is the big world creditor [China] and the big world debtor [the US]. But the big creditor has a currency that is not convertible. That’s the argument that kills the G2,” Mr. Di Meglio said.
Moreover, the Chinese might be “in a process that is moving them closer to the concept of a G2, [but] they definitely do not want to show that, as it would give them lots of responsibilities”, he said.
Although China desires recognition, a G2 would go against its preference for multilateralism.
“China has never looked to lead the world; it only follows a trend of development,” said Liu Yuhui, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Some of the Chinese elite, however, favour Chimerica.
The concept “has the huge merit ... of proving China’s global power, which cannot be ignored”, said Dr Niquet, adding that other powers, especially Russia and Japan, would be unhappy with the concept.
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G2 appeals to some but Beijing unlikely to back it
Agence France-Presse in Beijing
8 April 2009
A week after what appeared to be the advent of a new world order at the Group of 20 summit in London, the idea of a “G2”, which would put the US and China at the head of international affairs, is gaining momentum.
But analysts say the concept of “Chimerica”, meant to reflect a new geostrategic situation created by China’s rise, is neither realistic nor likely to appeal to Beijing.
First raised in US academic circles in 2006, the idea was floated again by former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski in Beijing in January as the two nations celebrated 30 years of diplomatic ties.
The concept has attracted a lot of interest from Chinese researchers and columnists, particularly since the G20 meeting last week.
Dr Brzezinski, who was also an adviser to US President Barack Obama during his campaign for the White House, suggested an “informal G2” for discussions “not just about bilateral relationships, but about the world in general”.
In his meeting with President Hu Jintao in London, Mr. Obama took a step in that direction, agreeing to “strengthen ties at all levels”.
The two also launched a strategic dialogue to be held each year that would cover such issues as the economy, the environment and relations with Iran, Sudan and Zimbabwe.
The concept of the G2 “is supported by those in the United States who are favourable to a strategy of co-operation with Beijing, in contrast to the neoconservatives’ view”, said Valerie Niquet, director of Centre Asie Ifri, a Paris-based research body.
This strategy is tempting at a time when the G8 is regarded by some as obsolete and the G20 is seen as too diluted to respond to challenges.
The financial crisis has highlighted the interdependence of the world’s No1 and No3 economies, while climate change has shown that the two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases must work together.
“On a lot of issues the only two real partners are China and the United States,” said Jean-Francois Di Meglio of the Paris-based research group the Asia Centre. But the yuan would hold back the alliance, he said.
“There is the big world creditor [China] and the big world debtor [the US]. But the big creditor has a currency that is not convertible. That’s the argument that kills the G2,” Mr. Di Meglio said.
Moreover, the Chinese might be “in a process that is moving them closer to the concept of a G2, [but] they definitely do not want to show that, as it would give them lots of responsibilities”, he said.
Although China desires recognition, a G2 would go against its preference for multilateralism.
“China has never looked to lead the world; it only follows a trend of development,” said Liu Yuhui, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Some of the Chinese elite, however, favour Chimerica.
The concept “has the huge merit ... of proving China’s global power, which cannot be ignored”, said Dr Niquet, adding that other powers, especially Russia and Japan, would be unhappy with the concept.
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