The leadership is waiting for the Dalai Lama to die - a risky strategy
Shi Jiangtao 12 March 2009
Beijing appears confident in playing what is essentially a waiting game with the Dalai Lama over Tibet. And for good reason.
The central leadership has confidence in the apparent success of its economic integration policies, featuring generous state subsidies and the influx of non-Tibetan settlers. The policies have so far worked as planned and lifted millions of people out of poverty in Tibet, changing the social and economic landscape in the past five decades.
The deteriorating health of the exiled spiritual leader, who turns 74 this year, further boosts Beijing’s confidence.
It is betting that when the Dalai Lama dies, the international support he has garnered will dwindle and the Tibetan community will become too divided to rally against Beijing.
Alongside this, China’s increasingly important role in tackling the unfolding global economic crisis has helped ease a large amount of international worry ahead of two sensitive anniversaries this week.
“China is probably waiting to increase its national power to be better able to deal with the Tibetan exile movement,” said Christopher McNally at the East-West Centre in Honolulu.
Other mainland and overseas experts say Beijing has overplayed its tactic of economic carrots tied to political sticks in winning the hearts and minds of Tibetans.
While pouring money into the Tibetan plateau has created more material prosperity and consolidated the restive region’s economic reliance on Beijing, the strategy has yet to shift Tibetan people’s faith and allegiance away from the Dalai Lama.
Despite a heavy military presence that has brought temporary peace and stability, the experts say a deep-seated mistrust between Beijing and the Dalai Lama, and simmering resentment and frustration among Tibetans over the political and economic dominance of Han Chinese, are likely to erupt into unrest.
The fact that resistance among the Dalai Lama’s followers in Tibet has turned increasingly violent in recent years, despite his calls for non-violence, underlines serious flaws in Beijing’s wait-and-see approach.
Furthermore, they say, Beijing’s constant maligning of the Dalai Lama, using rhetoric that is reminiscent of the Cultural Revolution, will not sway world opinion to its advantage.
Dozens of mainland scholars signed an open letter in the wake of the mass riots last year calling for an immediate halt to such bad propaganda. They said it had not only hurt China’s international image but also strained relations between the government and Tibetans.
Martin Mills, senior lecturer at the University of Aberdeen, said Beijing had underestimated the Dalai Lama’s importance in maintaining the status quo in Tibet.
Support for the Dalai Lama was helped by Beijing’s notorious policies in Tibet and its belief that loyalty depended on the exercise of power, on surveillance and an elaborate system of “patriotic education”, he said.
“Whatever China may claim, the present Dalai Lama’s personal authority remains both a unifying force and an important brake on violent protests within Tibetan communities,” Dr Mills said.
Experts warn that Beijing’s “shortsighted, misplaced” strategy will have serious consequences, possibly as soon as the need arises for the selection of a new Dalai Lama once the present one dies.
Even the Dalai Lama concedes Beijing cannot lose out in the contest because it has control of Tibet, although experts do not see how anyone - Beijing, Dharamsala or the Tibetans - will end up as the true winners.
Beijing may be confident that it can manipulate the appointment of another Dalai Lama, as it did with the Panchen Lama (widely regarded as a political debacle). But experts say that if there is a similar dispute over the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, it could have a disastrous impact on China’s international image and Tibet’s stability.
Dr Mills said that in the absence of the Dalai Lama, the pro-Tibetan movement - both inside and outside Tibet - would almost certainly fragment, leading to more violence and possibly on a much larger scale than before.
“Under such circumstances, however, there would be no one [for Beijing] to negotiate with,” Dr Mills said.
Elliot Sperling, a professor of Central Eurasian studies at Indiana University, also warns “China is staking a solution on the Dalai Lama’s death and is not thinking beyond that”.
The experts say Beijing holds the key - that China should break the political stalemate and negotiate a solution to the Tibet question while the Dalai Lama is alive.
However, deep-rooted mistrust and a lack of genuine interest in negotiations have led previous rounds of talks nowhere. Each side has blamed the other for the lack of progress, which has frustrated the younger generation of Tibetans.
Lian Xiangmin, a researcher at the government-linked China Tibetology Research Centre in Beijing, notes that the Dalai Lama has little room to manoeuvre: to pursue independence would further antagonise Beijing, and to denounce it completely could lose him the support of his devotees and China-bashers in the west.
Dr Lian said the Dalai Lama’s conciliatory “middle way” approach of seeking greater autonomy within China was also doomed to failure.
In his view, although the Dalai Lama insists that he wants “genuine autonomy” under Chinese rule, as Mao Zedong promised in a 1951 agreement, Beijing sees his statements as tantamount to seeking gradual independence.
He says the Dalai Lama is unlikely to play a big role in the future of Tibet, justifying Beijing’s thinking that time is on its side and solving the Tibet question would only be possible when the Dalai Lama dies.
But overseas experts disagree, saying Beijing’s hardline approach paints it into a corner, and makes it look like a bully to Tibetan-populated areas and to most of the global community. And yet, accepting even a quasi-independent autonomous Tibet would portray Beijing as weak to its own people.
Acheng - a former government head in Ganzi county of Sichuan province, one of the most volatile ethnic Tibetan areas bordering Tibet - said the central government has yet to learn some of the lessons from the March rioting last year.
He said there had been simmering discontent and misunderstanding among Tibetans over the central government’s policies, despite its show of unity ahead of the sensitive anniversaries.
“The government should have more trust in its people, particularly the Tibetan lamas, most of whom are not troublemakers,” he said.
“They may have different opinions on specific issues, but it does not mean they want to seek independence.”
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Is Beijing playing a no-win game?
The leadership is waiting for the Dalai Lama to die - a risky strategy
Shi Jiangtao
12 March 2009
Beijing appears confident in playing what is essentially a waiting game with the Dalai Lama over Tibet. And for good reason.
The central leadership has confidence in the apparent success of its economic integration policies, featuring generous state subsidies and the influx of non-Tibetan settlers. The policies have so far worked as planned and lifted millions of people out of poverty in Tibet, changing the social and economic landscape in the past five decades.
The deteriorating health of the exiled spiritual leader, who turns 74 this year, further boosts Beijing’s confidence.
It is betting that when the Dalai Lama dies, the international support he has garnered will dwindle and the Tibetan community will become too divided to rally against Beijing.
Alongside this, China’s increasingly important role in tackling the unfolding global economic crisis has helped ease a large amount of international worry ahead of two sensitive anniversaries this week.
“China is probably waiting to increase its national power to be better able to deal with the Tibetan exile movement,” said Christopher McNally at the East-West Centre in Honolulu.
Other mainland and overseas experts say Beijing has overplayed its tactic of economic carrots tied to political sticks in winning the hearts and minds of Tibetans.
While pouring money into the Tibetan plateau has created more material prosperity and consolidated the restive region’s economic reliance on Beijing, the strategy has yet to shift Tibetan people’s faith and allegiance away from the Dalai Lama.
Despite a heavy military presence that has brought temporary peace and stability, the experts say a deep-seated mistrust between Beijing and the Dalai Lama, and simmering resentment and frustration among Tibetans over the political and economic dominance of Han Chinese, are likely to erupt into unrest.
The fact that resistance among the Dalai Lama’s followers in Tibet has turned increasingly violent in recent years, despite his calls for non-violence, underlines serious flaws in Beijing’s wait-and-see approach.
Furthermore, they say, Beijing’s constant maligning of the Dalai Lama, using rhetoric that is reminiscent of the Cultural Revolution, will not sway world opinion to its advantage.
Dozens of mainland scholars signed an open letter in the wake of the mass riots last year calling for an immediate halt to such bad propaganda. They said it had not only hurt China’s international image but also strained relations between the government and Tibetans.
Martin Mills, senior lecturer at the University of Aberdeen, said Beijing had underestimated the Dalai Lama’s importance in maintaining the status quo in Tibet.
Support for the Dalai Lama was helped by Beijing’s notorious policies in Tibet and its belief that loyalty depended on the exercise of power, on surveillance and an elaborate system of “patriotic education”, he said.
“Whatever China may claim, the present Dalai Lama’s personal authority remains both a unifying force and an important brake on violent protests within Tibetan communities,” Dr Mills said.
Experts warn that Beijing’s “shortsighted, misplaced” strategy will have serious consequences, possibly as soon as the need arises for the selection of a new Dalai Lama once the present one dies.
Even the Dalai Lama concedes Beijing cannot lose out in the contest because it has control of Tibet, although experts do not see how anyone - Beijing, Dharamsala or the Tibetans - will end up as the true winners.
Beijing may be confident that it can manipulate the appointment of another Dalai Lama, as it did with the Panchen Lama (widely regarded as a political debacle). But experts say that if there is a similar dispute over the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, it could have a disastrous impact on China’s international image and Tibet’s stability.
Dr Mills said that in the absence of the Dalai Lama, the pro-Tibetan movement - both inside and outside Tibet - would almost certainly fragment, leading to more violence and possibly on a much larger scale than before.
“Under such circumstances, however, there would be no one [for Beijing] to negotiate with,” Dr Mills said.
Elliot Sperling, a professor of Central Eurasian studies at Indiana University, also warns “China is staking a solution on the Dalai Lama’s death and is not thinking beyond that”.
The experts say Beijing holds the key - that China should break the political stalemate and negotiate a solution to the Tibet question while the Dalai Lama is alive.
However, deep-rooted mistrust and a lack of genuine interest in negotiations have led previous rounds of talks nowhere. Each side has blamed the other for the lack of progress, which has frustrated the younger generation of Tibetans.
Lian Xiangmin, a researcher at the government-linked China Tibetology Research Centre in Beijing, notes that the Dalai Lama has little room to manoeuvre: to pursue independence would further antagonise Beijing, and to denounce it completely could lose him the support of his devotees and China-bashers in the west.
Dr Lian said the Dalai Lama’s conciliatory “middle way” approach of seeking greater autonomy within China was also doomed to failure.
In his view, although the Dalai Lama insists that he wants “genuine autonomy” under Chinese rule, as Mao Zedong promised in a 1951 agreement, Beijing sees his statements as tantamount to seeking gradual independence.
He says the Dalai Lama is unlikely to play a big role in the future of Tibet, justifying Beijing’s thinking that time is on its side and solving the Tibet question would only be possible when the Dalai Lama dies.
But overseas experts disagree, saying Beijing’s hardline approach paints it into a corner, and makes it look like a bully to Tibetan-populated areas and to most of the global community. And yet, accepting even a quasi-independent autonomous Tibet would portray Beijing as weak to its own people.
Acheng - a former government head in Ganzi county of Sichuan province, one of the most volatile ethnic Tibetan areas bordering Tibet - said the central government has yet to learn some of the lessons from the March rioting last year.
He said there had been simmering discontent and misunderstanding among Tibetans over the central government’s policies, despite its show of unity ahead of the sensitive anniversaries.
“The government should have more trust in its people, particularly the Tibetan lamas, most of whom are not troublemakers,” he said.
“They may have different opinions on specific issues, but it does not mean they want to seek independence.”
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