Saturday 24 January 2009
Subtle shifts expected in US policy on Taiwan
But overall, Mr. Obama’s administration remains uncertain on this issue and is unlikely to issue a comprehensive policy statement on Taiwan. Several experts on US-Taiwanese relations do not expect much to change, even though they hope he will promote relations among the US, the mainland and Taiwan that will benefit all parties.
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Subtle shifts expected in US policy on Taiwan
Michele Wong
24 January 2009
“Our time for change has come,” Barack Obama stressed during his US presidential campaign, a message that won over voters and saw him inaugurated as the 44th president on Tuesday.
But there are still doubts about what kind of change, if any, he wants in relation to the mainland and Taiwan. The Taiwan issue remains the most sensitive and divisive issue in Sino-US relations, arguably the world’s most important bilateral tie. In his statements on the matter, Mr. Obama said he strongly supported the efforts of leaders on both sides of the strait to ease tensions and to “resolve their differences peacefully and through dialogue”.
But overall, Mr. Obama’s administration remains uncertain on this issue and is unlikely to issue a comprehensive policy statement on Taiwan. Several experts on US-Taiwanese relations do not expect much to change, even though they hope he will promote relations among the US, the mainland and Taiwan that will benefit all parties.
Edward Chen I-hsin, professor at the Graduate Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, said he believed Mr. Obama would continue former president George W. Bush’s East Asian strategy, but he hoped it would be more balanced and moderate under the Obama administration.
Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a lecturer in strategic studies at Tamkang, said it was clear that Mr. Obama would stick to the “one China” policy that has framed US policy since 1979.
Dr Huang said two factors would directly affect Taiwan’s cross-strait and US relations: US arms sales to the island and the resumption of official visits between Taiwan and the US, which were suspended during former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian’s tenure.
Mr. Obama supported Mr. Bush’s US$6.5 billion arms sales package - a move denounced by Beijing - but did not call for it to be bigger, as Senator John McCain, his Republican opponent for president, did. Mr. Obama called the package “an important response to Taiwan’s defence needs” and said “the sale helps to contribute to Taiwan’s defence and the maintenance of a healthy balance in the Taiwan Strait”.
The new US president will not have to consider arms sales to Taiwan in the early months of his administration, but it will remain a bone of contention with Beijing. His administration is likely to support cross-strait military confidence-building measures, such as a plan announced by Taiwan on Monday to slash troop numbers over the next four years.
The Obama administration also has an interest in Taiwan as a budding democracy. But whereas Mr. Bush explicitly praised the island as a beacon of popular government, Professor Chen said Sino-US discussions would now focus more on economic issues such as the trade balance and currency exchange.
Also, the US is likely to support Taiwanese efforts for greater participation, but not membership, in international organisations. “Taiwan’s need to participate in the international arena is more important than membership,” Professor Chen said.
In the past, US Democrats have leaned more towards the mainland. Mr. Obama is also expected to appoint advisers - including former US president Bill Clinton - who will likely promote policies such as the “three nos”: no US support for the “one Taiwan, one China” concept, no support for an independent Taiwan, and no support for Taiwanese membership in the United Nations.
Nevertheless, Dr Huang is positive about Mr. Obama’s appointees, saying Washington’s new Asia team is a “very good one, which knows both [mainland] China and Taiwan well”.
Professor Chen also said the Obama administration would have a more balanced cross-strait policy, blaming the previous imbalance on Chen Shui-bian’s tenure. With Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s engagement policy with Beijing, there should be less cause for bitterness in US-Taiwanese relations, he said.
Overall, Dr Huang said, the mainland and Taiwan would not be in the main focus of US foreign policy at the beginning of the Obama administration; the Middle East and global economic issues would take centre stage.
“Don’t expect too much change,” he said.
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