Ma Ying-jeou’s government has brought a dramatic change to cross-strait ties, but the path ahead remains fraught with difficulty
Chris Yeung 27 December 2008
Nine months after Taiwan’s presidential election and seven months into the reign of Ma Ying-jeou, the change in cross-strait relations is unmistakable. December 15 saw the first batch of daily direct flights from the mainland touching down on the island, symbolising the beginning of a new era in cross-strait ties.
That followed the historic visit last month by Chen Yunlin, the most senior mainland official to set foot on Taiwanese soil since 1949. Amid protests and in settings loaded with symbolic resonance, Mr. Chen and Mr. Ma shook hands and exchanged souvenirs.
Two giant pandas, named Tuan Tuan and Yuan Yuan - whose names together mean “unification” - have a new home in Taipei after their arrival on Tuesday.
Despite the warming of ties, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the rough undercurrents remain in Beijing-Taipei relations.
A reported mainland ban on Taiwan’s box-office hit, Cape No 7, on the grounds of promoting Japanese imperialism, caused a stir across the strait. It now looks like the film will be allowed in next month.
Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) accused Mr. Ma of selling out Taiwan’s interests when he dashed hopes of a visit by the Dalai Lama next year.
“The Dalai Lama has visited Taiwan twice ... but at the current moment, the timing isn’t appropriate for that,” was Mr. Ma’s response.
Staging a political comeback in the March presidential election on a platform of rapprochement with the mainland, Mr. Ma would no doubt have liked to deliver quick results. But, while seeking early deals with the mainland on a range of economic and livelihood issues - like direct flights - he was critically aware of the political ramifications of setting too fast a pace.
American Richard Bush, a veteran Taiwan watcher, said it would be prudent for Mr. Ma to adopt an incremental approach.
“When you start fostering co-operation, it is risky to do it all at once. If the process is to succeed, it has to be gradual and done step by step, beginning with the easy ones, followed by the hard ones.”
Dr Bush, who formerly headed the American Institute in Taiwan and is now director of the Brookings Institution’s Centre for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, told a conference in Taipei that sooner or later Beijing would have to address difficult issues like Taiwan’s “international space” - its role in the international community.
Doing so, he said, would provide crucial support for Mr. Ma in dealing with his political opponents at home.
“Before Ma took office, the core problem was that, despite their strong economic ties, leaders from both sides believed each side threatened the other’s fundamental interests. Policies were based on fear, rather than hope,” Dr Bush said.
“China built up its military power to deter separatist activities. Taiwan’s leaders intensified their claims of sovereignty as a defence. It resulted in a vicious cycle of mutual fears.
“Ma’s proposal has reversed that cycle. With the policies pursued by Hu Jintao, the two sides have now come back to the future,” he said.
In ousting the DPP from power in March, Mr. Ma reiterated his “three nos” approach - no independence, no unification and no use of force. He reaffirmed Taipei’s commitment to the so-called “1992 consensus”, under which both Beijing and Taipei agreed that there was “one China”, subject to different interpretations.
While calling for a peace accord across the strait, he gave a big push to economic and people-to-people interaction through such initiatives as the direct flights.
When direct transport and postal services started this month, there was no shortage of comment about the marked change in a 50-year-old relationship which has always been marked by misunderstanding, mistrust and animosity.
Speaking at a ceremony to mark the start of direct flights, at Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan, Mr. Ma said: “Direct shipping and flights across the Taiwan Strait represents cross-strait rapprochement. From now on, dialogue will replace confrontation.”
At a corresponding ceremony in Tianjin, Wang Yi, director of the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said: “The direct links will bring about a new era of comprehensive exchanges, co-operation and developments for cross-strait relations.”
Liu Fu-kuo, a research fellow at the National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, told the Taipei conference that the dialogue of the past six months had significantly changed the international perception that Taiwan was a troublemaker in its relations with the mainland. He was quick to add, however, that the development of better relations was still riddled with uncertainties.
First, he has pointed out, there was a dearth of domestic consensus on policy towards the mainland among Taiwanese.
Second, policies were not co-ordinated. Third, Dr Liu said, the Ma administration had not yet been able to give a clear policy discourse on mainland affairs. Then there was the fact that its diplomatic allies were left in the dark over its thinking and game plan. Finally, he said, questions about whether the new or old face of the Kuomintang had prevailed were yet to be answered.
Dr Liu said that ordinary people were asking whether it was only wishful thinking for them to expect an early, positive response from Beijing.
Liu Shih-chung, a visiting Taiwan fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Mr. Ma hoped his initiatives would be met with goodwill on the “international space” issue.
Taipei is hoping for a breakthrough in its long-running fight for a seat on the World Health Assembly - the decision-making body of the World Health Organisation. Beijing has blocked it repeatedly since 1997.
Mr. Liu, who was also a senior counsellor to president Chen Shui-bian between 2000 and 2006, said he envisaged a compromise arrangement in light of improving cross-strait ties.
A well-placed Taipei source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, argued that depriving Taipei of a role in the international community was a major reason people rallied to the cause of Taiwanese independence. “Beijing understands it well. The status of Taiwan in next year’s World Health Assembly is the most important test case,” he said.
The source said President Hu reacted positively on the issue when he met Taiwan’s envoy, former vice-president Lien Chan, on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Peru last month.
“It’s not yet been put on the agenda [of cross-strait talks],” the source added. “We have done a lot of studies on different scenarios. The next few months will be critical. We hope Beijing will express more goodwill. It’s more about public health than politics.”
Beijing thinks otherwise. It is hypersensitive to the presence of Taiwan in the international arena because it impinges on the issue of sovereignty.
The mainland government’s uncompromising stance on sovereignty issues has put Mr. Ma in a difficult situation. He is anxious to deliver quick benefits to his people, many of whom are sceptical, if not cynical, about his reconciliation gambit.
The gap between expectation and reality is still wide. Hopes of a massive influx of mainland visitors enlivening the sluggish Taiwanese economy, for example, have dimmed as the numbers remain small. Rowdy protests greeted the visit of Beijing’s cross-strait chief, Mr. Chen, in November, a stark reminder to both Mr. Ma and Beijing of the depth of resistance from some quarters of society, especially among the DPP and its supporters.
Mr. Ma suffered a slump in popularity as fears about the economy and jobs grew from March onwards, making his reconciliation path even more perilous.
Mr. Liu said Beijing would feel unease if Taiwan pushed too hard and demanded too much. “China needs more time to watch and to reflect on the developments ... I can imagine there will be intense debate within the policymaking circle on the pace of rapprochement,” he said.
Richard Hu Weixing, a political scientist at the University of Hong Kong, said it was understandable that Taipei would demand more from Beijing because the reconciliation drive had yet to bear fruit for the Taiwanese.
Beijing would feel positive about developments thus far, but would prefer to err on the side of caution, he said.
Quoting mainland scholars, Dr Hu said: “Never mind that mainland-Taiwan relations are moving slowly, it is important the momentum of positive change has not come to a halt.”
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Road to Reconciliation
Ma Ying-jeou’s government has brought a dramatic change to cross-strait ties, but the path ahead remains fraught with difficulty
Chris Yeung
27 December 2008
Nine months after Taiwan’s presidential election and seven months into the reign of Ma Ying-jeou, the change in cross-strait relations is unmistakable. December 15 saw the first batch of daily direct flights from the mainland touching down on the island, symbolising the beginning of a new era in cross-strait ties.
That followed the historic visit last month by Chen Yunlin, the most senior mainland official to set foot on Taiwanese soil since 1949. Amid protests and in settings loaded with symbolic resonance, Mr. Chen and Mr. Ma shook hands and exchanged souvenirs.
Two giant pandas, named Tuan Tuan and Yuan Yuan - whose names together mean “unification” - have a new home in Taipei after their arrival on Tuesday.
Despite the warming of ties, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the rough undercurrents remain in Beijing-Taipei relations.
A reported mainland ban on Taiwan’s box-office hit, Cape No 7, on the grounds of promoting Japanese imperialism, caused a stir across the strait. It now looks like the film will be allowed in next month.
Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) accused Mr. Ma of selling out Taiwan’s interests when he dashed hopes of a visit by the Dalai Lama next year.
“The Dalai Lama has visited Taiwan twice ... but at the current moment, the timing isn’t appropriate for that,” was Mr. Ma’s response.
Staging a political comeback in the March presidential election on a platform of rapprochement with the mainland, Mr. Ma would no doubt have liked to deliver quick results. But, while seeking early deals with the mainland on a range of economic and livelihood issues - like direct flights - he was critically aware of the political ramifications of setting too fast a pace.
American Richard Bush, a veteran Taiwan watcher, said it would be prudent for Mr. Ma to adopt an incremental approach.
“When you start fostering co-operation, it is risky to do it all at once. If the process is to succeed, it has to be gradual and done step by step, beginning with the easy ones, followed by the hard ones.”
Dr Bush, who formerly headed the American Institute in Taiwan and is now director of the Brookings Institution’s Centre for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, told a conference in Taipei that sooner or later Beijing would have to address difficult issues like Taiwan’s “international space” - its role in the international community.
Doing so, he said, would provide crucial support for Mr. Ma in dealing with his political opponents at home.
“Before Ma took office, the core problem was that, despite their strong economic ties, leaders from both sides believed each side threatened the other’s fundamental interests. Policies were based on fear, rather than hope,” Dr Bush said.
“China built up its military power to deter separatist activities. Taiwan’s leaders intensified their claims of sovereignty as a defence. It resulted in a vicious cycle of mutual fears.
“Ma’s proposal has reversed that cycle. With the policies pursued by Hu Jintao, the two sides have now come back to the future,” he said.
In ousting the DPP from power in March, Mr. Ma reiterated his “three nos” approach - no independence, no unification and no use of force. He reaffirmed Taipei’s commitment to the so-called “1992 consensus”, under which both Beijing and Taipei agreed that there was “one China”, subject to different interpretations.
While calling for a peace accord across the strait, he gave a big push to economic and people-to-people interaction through such initiatives as the direct flights.
When direct transport and postal services started this month, there was no shortage of comment about the marked change in a 50-year-old relationship which has always been marked by misunderstanding, mistrust and animosity.
Speaking at a ceremony to mark the start of direct flights, at Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan, Mr. Ma said: “Direct shipping and flights across the Taiwan Strait represents cross-strait rapprochement. From now on, dialogue will replace confrontation.”
At a corresponding ceremony in Tianjin, Wang Yi, director of the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said: “The direct links will bring about a new era of comprehensive exchanges, co-operation and developments for cross-strait relations.”
Liu Fu-kuo, a research fellow at the National Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, told the Taipei conference that the dialogue of the past six months had significantly changed the international perception that Taiwan was a troublemaker in its relations with the mainland. He was quick to add, however, that the development of better relations was still riddled with uncertainties.
First, he has pointed out, there was a dearth of domestic consensus on policy towards the mainland among Taiwanese.
Second, policies were not co-ordinated. Third, Dr Liu said, the Ma administration had not yet been able to give a clear policy discourse on mainland affairs. Then there was the fact that its diplomatic allies were left in the dark over its thinking and game plan. Finally, he said, questions about whether the new or old face of the Kuomintang had prevailed were yet to be answered.
Dr Liu said that ordinary people were asking whether it was only wishful thinking for them to expect an early, positive response from Beijing.
Liu Shih-chung, a visiting Taiwan fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Mr. Ma hoped his initiatives would be met with goodwill on the “international space” issue.
Taipei is hoping for a breakthrough in its long-running fight for a seat on the World Health Assembly - the decision-making body of the World Health Organisation. Beijing has blocked it repeatedly since 1997.
Mr. Liu, who was also a senior counsellor to president Chen Shui-bian between 2000 and 2006, said he envisaged a compromise arrangement in light of improving cross-strait ties.
A well-placed Taipei source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, argued that depriving Taipei of a role in the international community was a major reason people rallied to the cause of Taiwanese independence. “Beijing understands it well. The status of Taiwan in next year’s World Health Assembly is the most important test case,” he said.
The source said President Hu reacted positively on the issue when he met Taiwan’s envoy, former vice-president Lien Chan, on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Peru last month.
“It’s not yet been put on the agenda [of cross-strait talks],” the source added. “We have done a lot of studies on different scenarios. The next few months will be critical. We hope Beijing will express more goodwill. It’s more about public health than politics.”
Beijing thinks otherwise. It is hypersensitive to the presence of Taiwan in the international arena because it impinges on the issue of sovereignty.
The mainland government’s uncompromising stance on sovereignty issues has put Mr. Ma in a difficult situation. He is anxious to deliver quick benefits to his people, many of whom are sceptical, if not cynical, about his reconciliation gambit.
The gap between expectation and reality is still wide. Hopes of a massive influx of mainland visitors enlivening the sluggish Taiwanese economy, for example, have dimmed as the numbers remain small. Rowdy protests greeted the visit of Beijing’s cross-strait chief, Mr. Chen, in November, a stark reminder to both Mr. Ma and Beijing of the depth of resistance from some quarters of society, especially among the DPP and its supporters.
Mr. Ma suffered a slump in popularity as fears about the economy and jobs grew from March onwards, making his reconciliation path even more perilous.
Mr. Liu said Beijing would feel unease if Taiwan pushed too hard and demanded too much. “China needs more time to watch and to reflect on the developments ... I can imagine there will be intense debate within the policymaking circle on the pace of rapprochement,” he said.
Richard Hu Weixing, a political scientist at the University of Hong Kong, said it was understandable that Taipei would demand more from Beijing because the reconciliation drive had yet to bear fruit for the Taiwanese.
Beijing would feel positive about developments thus far, but would prefer to err on the side of caution, he said.
Quoting mainland scholars, Dr Hu said: “Never mind that mainland-Taiwan relations are moving slowly, it is important the momentum of positive change has not come to a halt.”
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