Democrats’ Abhisit likely to win, but analysts doubt he can reconcile parties
By Nirmal Ghosh 14 December 2008
BANGKOK - Thailand is on edge today as lawmakers vote for a new premier, with the opposition Democrat Party still confident of forming a government despite a last-minute intervention over the weekend by ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra.
Parliament is due to convene and vote this morning, following the Dec 2 dissolution of the ruling party, which has been left with a lame caretaker Cabinet.
According to estimates, the Democrat Party can count on enough support, thanks to a breakaway former Thaksin ally, to muster 242 seats - a thin majority in a 480-seat Lower House reduced to 438 after disqualifications.
But the Puea Thai party - a reincarnation of the disbanded People Power Party - has named as its candidate Mr. Pracha Promnok, leader of the small Puea Paendin party whose 21 MPs are being counted as Democrat allies, but may stick to the Puea Thai.
With the army, the elite establishment and much of the business community backing him, the Democrat leader, Oxford-educated Abhisit Vejjajiva, 44, still seems likely to win. But the voting session could well be a photo finish.
Mr. Abhisit told reporters he was ‘ready to work immediately’ to tackle the kingdom’s economic woes.
‘If the Democrat Party has the chance to become the government, we will restore confidence within next two or three months,’ he said yesterday.
The government may not last more than a few months as resentment builds in Puea Thai, manifested in the pro-democracy ‘red shirt’ movement.
The Democrats will also have to appease the anti-Thaksin, right-wing People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), distinguishable by their yellow shirts. Yellow is the colour of the king.
‘The Democrats won’t last long; they will be attacked from two sides - red and yellow,’ red shirt supporter Jaran Ditta- apichai, a former human rights commissioner, told The Straits Times.
The red shirts demand amendments to harsh provisions in the Constitution that make political parties vulnerable and have been responsible for the court decision to dissolve the ruling party.
They also demand action against the PAD for its seizures of Government House and Bangkok’s two airports.
Meanwhile, the PAD last week issued 13 demands for the new government, foremost of which was political reform that would ‘install new politics that will not see a recurrence of past political crisis’.
‘New politics’ is the term given to a system in which the Lower House would be partially appointed - in effect disenfranchising voters to some degree.
It is unlikely that the Democrat Party will be able to meet the PAD’s demands without spawning more protests from the red shirts, who see the new coalition as political opportunism and part of a plan to obliterate Thaksin’s loyalist network.
Thaksin, who is in exile overseas, gave a pre-recorded video address at a Bangkok stadium to about 50,000 red-clad supporters over the weekend, saying there would be no end to Thailand’s political strife if the army keeps meddling.
The army, whose primary allegiance is to the monarchy, has done nothing to rein in the increasingly aggressive protests of the PAD.
And with key politicians from the prospective new ruling coalition visiting army chief General Anupong Paochinda last week, it became obvious that the army was pulling strings from the background.
The red shirts see the proposed new coalition as the result of a conspiracy between the army and the Democrat Party, with the PAD having laid the ground.
Pro-democracy activist Weng Tochirakarn told The Straits Times on the sidelines of Saturday’s rally: ‘This country is in a state of anarchy.
‘The rule of law has been destroyed by the PAD, who believe they are above the Constitution. The red shirts would respect demands provided they are not above the law.’
Having shown its hand, and despite its denials, the army is now fair game for the red shirts, and came in for bold criticism at Saturday’s rally - a measure of the frustration of Thaksin’s supporters.
Many of those who turned up at the rally said they were not necessarily pro- Thaksin but definitely pro-democracy and against army interference.
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Next PM May Not Last
Democrats’ Abhisit likely to win, but analysts doubt he can reconcile parties
By Nirmal Ghosh
14 December 2008
BANGKOK - Thailand is on edge today as lawmakers vote for a new premier, with the opposition Democrat Party still confident of forming a government despite a last-minute intervention over the weekend by ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra.
Parliament is due to convene and vote this morning, following the Dec 2 dissolution of the ruling party, which has been left with a lame caretaker Cabinet.
According to estimates, the Democrat Party can count on enough support, thanks to a breakaway former Thaksin ally, to muster 242 seats - a thin majority in a 480-seat Lower House reduced to 438 after disqualifications.
But the Puea Thai party - a reincarnation of the disbanded People Power Party - has named as its candidate Mr. Pracha Promnok, leader of the small Puea Paendin party whose 21 MPs are being counted as Democrat allies, but may stick to the Puea Thai.
With the army, the elite establishment and much of the business community backing him, the Democrat leader, Oxford-educated Abhisit Vejjajiva, 44, still seems likely to win. But the voting session could well be a photo finish.
Mr. Abhisit told reporters he was ‘ready to work immediately’ to tackle the kingdom’s economic woes.
‘If the Democrat Party has the chance to become the government, we will restore confidence within next two or three months,’ he said yesterday.
The government may not last more than a few months as resentment builds in Puea Thai, manifested in the pro-democracy ‘red shirt’ movement.
The Democrats will also have to appease the anti-Thaksin, right-wing People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), distinguishable by their yellow shirts. Yellow is the colour of the king.
‘The Democrats won’t last long; they will be attacked from two sides - red and yellow,’ red shirt supporter Jaran Ditta- apichai, a former human rights commissioner, told The Straits Times.
The red shirts demand amendments to harsh provisions in the Constitution that make political parties vulnerable and have been responsible for the court decision to dissolve the ruling party.
They also demand action against the PAD for its seizures of Government House and Bangkok’s two airports.
Meanwhile, the PAD last week issued 13 demands for the new government, foremost of which was political reform that would ‘install new politics that will not see a recurrence of past political crisis’.
‘New politics’ is the term given to a system in which the Lower House would be partially appointed - in effect disenfranchising voters to some degree.
It is unlikely that the Democrat Party will be able to meet the PAD’s demands without spawning more protests from the red shirts, who see the new coalition as political opportunism and part of a plan to obliterate Thaksin’s loyalist network.
Thaksin, who is in exile overseas, gave a pre-recorded video address at a Bangkok stadium to about 50,000 red-clad supporters over the weekend, saying there would be no end to Thailand’s political strife if the army keeps meddling.
The army, whose primary allegiance is to the monarchy, has done nothing to rein in the increasingly aggressive protests of the PAD.
And with key politicians from the prospective new ruling coalition visiting army chief General Anupong Paochinda last week, it became obvious that the army was pulling strings from the background.
The red shirts see the proposed new coalition as the result of a conspiracy between the army and the Democrat Party, with the PAD having laid the ground.
Pro-democracy activist Weng Tochirakarn told The Straits Times on the sidelines of Saturday’s rally: ‘This country is in a state of anarchy.
‘The rule of law has been destroyed by the PAD, who believe they are above the Constitution. The red shirts would respect demands provided they are not above the law.’
Having shown its hand, and despite its denials, the army is now fair game for the red shirts, and came in for bold criticism at Saturday’s rally - a measure of the frustration of Thaksin’s supporters.
Many of those who turned up at the rally said they were not necessarily pro- Thaksin but definitely pro-democracy and against army interference.
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