I noted yesterday that China will show growth numbers of 8.5-9%. That is what they will print! That is not where China is, which is really about 8% (just above recession). I actually believe that China will cook the GDP books to show the kind of numbers I put down. The economy is already in 8% territory and will head lower to 6.5-7% (recession numbers that will not be printed.
Consumer spending will not expand as quickly as Beijing hopes for because of the weak stock market, concerns about recession, declining real estate values and the fact that the 130 million migrant workers, who have always provided spending support, are having difficulties finding jobs now that thousands of factories have closed. Exports growth is slowing rapidly and may soon show negative sequentially. Foreign investment will also remain cool. Not a nice recipe, which is why there will be huge fiscal stimuli and infrastructure expansion.
Have you seen the build-up in Chinese coal and oil inventories? It's not for a cold winter. It is because the economy is weaker than expected.
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I noted yesterday that China will show growth numbers of 8.5-9%. That is what they will print! That is not where China is, which is really about 8% (just above recession). I actually believe that China will cook the GDP books to show the kind of numbers I put down. The economy is already in 8% territory and will head lower to 6.5-7% (recession numbers that will not be printed.
Consumer spending will not expand as quickly as Beijing hopes for because of the weak stock market, concerns about recession, declining real estate values and the fact that the 130 million migrant workers, who have always provided spending support, are having difficulties finding jobs now that thousands of factories have closed. Exports growth is slowing rapidly and may soon show negative sequentially. Foreign investment will also remain cool. Not a nice recipe, which is why there will be huge fiscal stimuli and infrastructure expansion.
Have you seen the build-up in Chinese coal and oil inventories? It's not for a cold winter. It is because the economy is weaker than expected.
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