Friday, 12 September 2008

FTSE STI semi-annual review

This review features three investability weight (IW) changes. There are upgrades in the IWs of Singapore Telecom, to 50% from 40%, and Genting, to 40% from 30%. Wilmar, by contrast, has its IW downgraded to 20% from 40%, resulting in a circa 2.4% weighting cut.
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RATE FUTURES - Bets on Fed ease rise on weak claims report

By Ros Krasny

CHICAGO, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose on Thursday in the face of further weakness in the jobs market and jitters in the financial sector, boosting the implied chances that the Federal Reserve will lower benchmark lending rates before year-end.

The implied prospects for a Fed rate cut by year-end traded as high as 32 percent versus 12 percent late on Wednesday after U.S. equities markets opened sharply lower. A week ago dealers were still positioning for the Fed to raise rates.

Most signs point to the Federal Open Market Committee leaving the fed funds rate at 2 percent at its policy meeting on Tuesday. Still, futures bets show an outside, 12 percent chance of a cut to 1.75 percent.

Driving Thursday's move was the weekly jobless claims report, and especially a spike in continued claims to more than 3.5 million, the highest level since October 2003.

For the week ending Sept. 6, initial jobless claims of 445,000 were down from an upwardly revised 451,000 a week earlier but above market expectations.

"Initial claims at 445,000 were disappointing ... hinting that the underlying trend is rising, and that September's payrolls may be weaker," said David Sloan, analyst at 4CAST Ltd in New York.

Last week, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen cited the rising U.S. jobless rate as one of the key risks facing the economy over the next few quarters.

Yellen said a rate cut could not be ruled out, even though the Fed's current policy deadlock would most likely be ended by a rate increase.

Also building the case for a Fed rate cut was the higher than expected July trade deficit.

"At about 5.2 percent of gross domestic product, the trade deficit is a significant drag economic growth and destroys millions of high paying U.S. jobs," said Peter Morici, professor at the University of Maryland School of Business.