Read 2 old articles written by Chua Soon Hock (fund manager of Asia Genesis Asset Management) and CSK, dated 6th July 2007 & 28th July 2007, respectively. Both writers were calling/warning retail investors to exit the market, then.
Article #1:
During a bull market there will be many analysts calling for buy recommendations, and during a bear market there will be many analysts calling for sell recommendations.
Seldom we have seen analysts making bold recommendations that is contrarian to the current market condition.
Below is an article from the fund manager from Asia Genesis calling for exiting the market in July 2007 in a newspaper from Singapore. If you had follow his call, you will be exiting at a comfortable profit OR at least not sitting in losses now.
**Time to exit, not enter, markets**
By Chua Soon Hock July 6, 2007
HAVING made a living as a fund manager and trader for the past 25years, I have seen the general investing public hurt numerous times when they invest aggressively near the peak of a bubble, whether in stocks or property.
Retail investors should adopt a very long-term horizon to benefit from the stock and property markets.
The starting point of major stock investment or purchasing a property for investment is important. Always try to start major investments during a recession, a global market crisis, a banking crisis or when nobody is interested in stocks, like during the Sars period.
The art of investing can be broken down into three quantitative variables of time, price and size. Investors should pick a 'terrible' environment/time when prices are distressed and commit big (but definitely without leverage).
The opposite is also true. In a very bullish, 'good' environment/time with high prices everywhere, investors should reduce the size of investments and ensure that whatever is outstanding is getting smaller and smaller.
Forget about wanting to liquidate all investments at the top of the market. It is an impossible task.
The basic idea is to invest aggressively (without leverage) near the bottom and get out when markets are euphoric, like now, even if they could go higher and carry on longer.
Global imbalances are currently at an extreme, making the environment ripe for a market crisis like Oct 19, 1987.
Markets (individual share and property) will go up and down over a long period of time, although the general stock index hides this truth as new, strong shares always replace old, declining shares over the years, giving you a misguided view that the index always heads much higher over time.
As Singapore markets become globalised with much foreign participation, Singaporeans would do well to be patient and courageous by investing near the bottom of the down cycle and selling to foreigners near the top of the up cycle and repeating this process.
If you have missed the huge bull market, that's just too bad. Now is not the time to jump in aggressively as the risks are increasing exponentially.
Bull and bear markets always repeat themselves, just like summer and winter. Be very patient and do your homework.
You do not need to be a genius to make money in the markets. You need common sense, discipline and a clear long-term workable plan, without which the markets are like a hot fire and will burn fingers.
My earlier attempt to identify and warn of an impending top was too early. But it was prompted (you might to call it inspired) by the way or news media reporting, human behviour, perception of easy money (if others can make so can I, and they did), price action, etc. etc.
I have been through 4 booms - 1979-80, 1986-87, 1992-93, 1998-99 and very naturally 4 busts after the 4 booms. Bust is the only way a boom can end. There is no other way. In every bust, the streets are always red. Not because it is Chinese New Year firecrackers papers but because of blood, blood flooding on the streets, in the drains.
Then will come falling prices, job losses, loan recalls, bankruptcies, mortgage sales by bank, broken families, suicides, increase in accidents, depressed prices, business closure, business downsizing, more job losses, more bankruptcies, more mortgage sales, more broken families, more suicides.
I am now experiencing the 5th boom and this is the longest boom. I know what WILL come after. There is no other way but a bust, and a very bad one, which will then go into my personal records of having seen 5 full cycles of boom and bust.
I don't agree with what MM said recently, that Asia has a few more good years. I don't agree. He said good things about the Singapore economy in 1984 when he was still PM. At a time when the Singapore economy has started to decline. A year later, in 1985, he had to report that Singapore has experienced its first recession and negative growth.
It seems I am always a bringer of bad news. Yes for the moment. For the moment I have tried to sound the alarm of not being greedy, of being careful. Because I have seen it before, I have felt it before, I have been hit before.
So I try even if I know I will fail. Because even if I fail, I know I am planting positive karma seeds. The type of seeds that will ripen for the planter at the right time... in this life, or in the next life, or in some other future life.
I plant yet one more seed tonight. This is the most I can do for now. Can I tell you not to buy those expensive homes and those expensive cars that you have decided you can easily pay for with future easy profits from the stock market? Can I tell you to keep your money in cash and forego whatever profit you may think you will make? No I can't! Because it will go against your logic!
I can never be spot on with the timing of the top. All I can do is to recognise the signs and signals. And plant one more seed.
2 comments:
Read 2 old articles written by Chua Soon Hock (fund manager of Asia Genesis Asset Management) and CSK, dated 6th July 2007 & 28th July 2007, respectively. Both writers were calling/warning retail investors to exit the market, then.
Article #1:
During a bull market there will be many analysts calling for buy recommendations, and during a bear market there will be many analysts calling for sell recommendations.
Seldom we have seen analysts making bold recommendations that is contrarian to the current market condition.
Below is an article from the fund manager from Asia Genesis calling for exiting the market in July 2007 in a newspaper from Singapore. If you had follow his call, you will be exiting at a comfortable profit OR at least not sitting in losses now.
**Time to exit, not enter, markets**
By Chua Soon Hock
July 6, 2007
HAVING made a living as a fund manager and trader for the past 25years, I have seen the general investing public hurt numerous times when they invest aggressively near the peak of a bubble, whether in stocks or property.
Retail investors should adopt a very long-term horizon to benefit from the stock and property markets.
The starting point of major stock investment or purchasing a property for investment is important. Always try to start major investments during a recession, a global market crisis, a banking crisis or when nobody is interested in stocks, like during the Sars period.
The art of investing can be broken down into three quantitative variables of time, price and size. Investors should pick a 'terrible' environment/time when prices are distressed and commit big (but definitely without leverage).
The opposite is also true. In a very bullish, 'good' environment/time with high prices everywhere, investors should reduce the size of investments and ensure that whatever is outstanding is getting smaller and smaller.
Forget about wanting to liquidate all investments at the top of the market. It is an impossible task.
The basic idea is to invest aggressively (without leverage) near the bottom and get out when markets are euphoric, like now, even if they could go higher and carry on longer.
Global imbalances are currently at an extreme, making the environment ripe for a market crisis like Oct 19, 1987.
Markets (individual share and property) will go up and down over a long period of time, although the general stock index hides this truth as new, strong shares always replace old, declining shares over the years, giving you a misguided view that the index always heads much higher over time.
As Singapore markets become globalised with much foreign participation, Singaporeans would do well to be patient and courageous by investing near the bottom of the down cycle and selling to foreigners near the top of the up cycle and repeating this process.
If you have missed the huge bull market, that's just too bad. Now is not the time to jump in aggressively as the risks are increasing exponentially.
Bull and bear markets always repeat themselves, just like summer and winter. Be very patient and do your homework.
You do not need to be a genius to make money in the markets. You need common sense, discipline and a clear long-term workable plan, without which the markets are like a hot fire and will burn fingers.
********************************************************************************
Article #2:
By CSK
28 July 2007
My earlier attempt to identify and warn of an impending top was too early. But it was prompted (you might to call it inspired) by the way or news media reporting, human behviour, perception of easy money (if others can make so can I, and they did), price action, etc. etc.
I have been through 4 booms - 1979-80, 1986-87, 1992-93, 1998-99 and very naturally 4 busts after the 4 booms. Bust is the only way a boom can end. There is no other way. In every bust, the streets are always red. Not because it is Chinese New Year firecrackers papers but because of blood, blood flooding on the streets, in the drains.
Then will come falling prices, job losses, loan recalls, bankruptcies,
mortgage sales by bank, broken families, suicides, increase in accidents, depressed prices, business closure, business downsizing, more job losses, more bankruptcies, more mortgage sales, more broken families, more suicides.
I am now experiencing the 5th boom and this is the longest boom. I know what WILL come after. There is no other way but a bust, and a very bad one, which will then go into my personal records of having seen 5 full cycles of boom and bust.
I don't agree with what MM said recently, that Asia has a few more good years. I don't agree. He said good things about the Singapore economy in 1984 when he was still PM. At a time when the Singapore economy has started to decline. A year later, in 1985, he had to report that Singapore has experienced its first recession and negative growth.
It seems I am always a bringer of bad news. Yes for the moment. For the moment I have tried to sound the alarm of not being greedy, of being careful. Because I have seen it before, I have felt it before, I have been hit before.
So I try even if I know I will fail. Because even if I fail, I know I am planting positive karma seeds. The type of seeds that will ripen for the planter at the right time... in this life, or in the next life, or in some other future life.
I plant yet one more seed tonight. This is the most I can do for now.
Can I tell you not to buy those expensive homes and those expensive cars that you have decided you can easily pay for with future easy profits from the stock market? Can I tell you to keep your money in cash and forego whatever profit you may think you will make? No I can't! Because it will go against your logic!
I can never be spot on with the timing of the top. All I can do is to recognise the signs and signals. And plant one more seed.
兵败如山例；不在沉默中暴发，就在沉默中消失。@_@
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