The Voice (issue 264 - 11th May) ran an article beginning, ‘Iran has really gone and done it now. No, they haven’t sent their first nuclear sub in to the Persian Gulf. They are about to launch something much more deadly – next week the Iran Bourse will open to trade oil, not in dollars but in Euros’. This apparently insignificant event has consequences far greater for the US people, indeed all for us all, than is imaginable.
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A Nightmare for the U.S.
The Voice (issue 264 - 11th May) ran an article beginning, ‘Iran has really gone and done it now. No, they haven’t sent their first nuclear sub in to the Persian Gulf. They are about to launch something much more deadly – next week the Iran Bourse will open to trade oil, not in dollars but in Euros’. This apparently insignificant event has consequences far greater for the US people, indeed all for us all, than is imaginable.
Currently almost all oil buying and selling is in US-dollars through exchanges in London and New York. It is not accidental they are both US-owned.
The Wall Street crash in 1929 sparked off global depression and World War II. During that war the US supplied provisions and munitions to all its allies, refusing currency and demanding gold payments in exchange.
By 1945, 80% of the world’s gold was sitting in US vaults. The dollar became the one undisputed global reserve currency -- it was treated world-wide as ‘safer than gold’. The Bretton Woods agreement was established.
The US took full advantage over the next decades and printed dollars like there was no tomorrow. The US exported many mountains of dollars, paying for ever-increasing amounts of commodities, tax cuts for the rich, many wars abroad, mercenaries, spies and politicians the world over. You see, this did not affect inflation at home! The US got it all for free! Well, maybe for a forest or two.
Over subsequent decades the world’s vaults bulged at the seams and more and more vaults were built, just for US dollars. Each year, the US spends many more dollars abroad that at home.
Analysts pretty much agree that outside the US, of the savings, or reserves, of all other countries, in gold and all currencies -- that a massive 66% of this total wealth is in US dollars!
In 1971 several countries simultaneously tried to sell a small portion of their dollars to the US for gold. Krassimir Petrov, (Ph. D. in Economics at Ohio University) recently wrote, ‘The US Government defaulted on its payment on August 15, 1971. While popular spin told the story of severing the link between the dollar and gold’, in reality the denial to pay back in gold was an act of bankruptcy by the US Government.’ The 1945 Bretton Woods agreement was unilaterally smashed.
The dollar and US economy were on a precipice resembling Germany in 1929. The US now had to find a way for the rest of the world to believe and have faith in the paper dollar. The solution was in oil, in the petrodollar. The US viciously bullied first Saudi Arabia and then OPEC to sell oil for dollars only -- it worked, the dollar was saved. Now countries had to keep dollars to buy much needed oil. And the US could buy oil all over the world, free of charge. What a Houdini for the US! Oil replaced gold as the new foundation to stop the paper dollar sinking.
Since 1971, the US printed even more mountains of dollars to spend abroad. The trade deficit grew and grew. The US sucked-in much of the world’s products for next to nothing. More vaults were built.
Expert, Cóilínn Nunan, wrote in 2003, ‘The dollar is the de facto world reserve currency: the US currency accounts for approximately two thirds of all official exchange reserves. More than four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions and half of all world exports are denominated in dollars. In addition, all IMF loans are denominated in dollars.’
Dr Bulent Gukay of Keele University recently wrote, ‘This system of the US dollar acting as global reserve currency in oil trade keeps the demand for the dollar ‘artificially’ high. This enables the US to carry out printing dollars at the price of next to nothing to fund increased military spending and consumer spending on imports. There is no theoretical limit to the amount of dollars that can be printed. As long as the US has no serious challengers, and the other states have confidence in the US dollar, the system functions.’
Until recently, the US-dollar has been safe. However, since 1990 Western Europe has been busy growing, swallowing up central and Eastern Europe. French and German bosses were jealous of the US ability to buy goods and people the world over for nothing. They wanted a slice of the free cake too. Further, they now had the power and established the euro in late 1999 against massive US-inspired opposition across Europe, especially from Britain - paid for in dollars of course. But the euro succeeded.
Only months after the euro-launch, Saddam’s Iraq announced it was switching from selling oil in dollars only, to Euros only -- breaking the OPEC agreement. Iran , Russia , Venezuela, Libya , all began talking openly of switching too -- were the floodgates about to be opened?
Then aeroplanes flew into the twin-towers in September 2001. Was this another Houdini chance to save the US (petro) dollar and the biggest financial/economic crash in history? War preparations began in the US. But first war-fever had to be created -- and truth was the first casualty. Other oil producing countries watched-on. In 2000 Iraq began selling oil in Euros. In 2002, Iraq changed all their petro-dollars in their vaults into Euros. A few months later, the US began their invasion of Iraq.
The whole world was watching: very few aware that the US was engaging in the first oil currency, or petrodollar war. After the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, remember, the US secured oil areas first. Their first sales in August were, of course, in dollars, again. The only government building in Baghdad not bombed was the Oil Ministry! It does not matter how many people are murdered -- for the US, the petrodollar must be saved as the only way to buy and sell oil -- otherwise the US economy will crash, and much more besides.
In early 2003, Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela talked openly of selling half of its oil in Euros (the other half is bought by the US). On 12 April 2003, the US-supported business leaders and some generals in Venezuela kidnapped Chavez and attempted a coup. The masses rose against this and the Army followed suit. The coup failed. This was bad for the US.
In November 2000 the euro/dollar was at $0.82 dollars, its lowest ever, and still diving, but when Iraq started selling oil in Euros, the euro dive was halted. In April 2002 senior OPEC reps talked about trading in Euros and the euro shot up. In June 2003 the US occupiers of Iraq switched trading back to dollars and the euro fell against the dollar again. In August 2003 Iran starts to sell oil in Euros to some European countries and the euro rises sharply.
In the winter of 2003-4 Russian and OPEC politicians talked seriously of switching oil/gas sales to the euro and the euro rose. In February 2004 OPEC met and made no decision to turn to the euro -- and yes, the euro fell against the dollar. In June 2004 Iran announced it would build an oil bourse to rival London and New York, and again, the euro rose. The euro stands at $1.27 and has been climbing of late.
But matters this month became far, far worse for the US dollar. On 5th May Iran registered its own Oil Bourse, the IOB. Not only are they now selling oil in Euros from abroad -- they have established an actual Oil Bourse, a global trading centre for all countries to buy and sell their oil!
In Chavez’s recent visit to London; he talked openly about supporting the Iranian Oil Bourse, and selling oil in Euros. When asked in London about the new arms embargo imposed by the US against Venezuela, Chavez prophetically dismissed the US as ‘a paper tiger’.
Currently, almost all the world’s oil is sold on either the NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, or the IPE, London’s International Petroleum Exchange. Both are owned by US citizens and both sell and buy only in US dollars.
The success of the Iran Oil Bourse makes sense to Europe, which buys 70% of Iran’s oil. It makes sense for Russia, which sells 66% of its oil to Europe. But worse for the US, China and India have already stated they are very interested in the new Iranian Oil Bourse.
If there is a tactical-nuclear strike on - déjà-vu - ‘weapons of mass destruction’ in Iran, who would bet against a certain Oil Exchange and more, being bombed too?
And worse for Bush. It makes sense for Europe, China, India and Japan--as well as all the other countries mentioned above -- to buy and sell oil in Euro’s. They will certainly have to stock-up on Euros now, and they will sell dollars to do so. The euro is far more stable than the debt-ridden dollar. The IMF has recently highlighted US economic difficulties and the trade deficit strangling the US-- there is no way out.
The problem for so many countries now is how to get rid of their vaults full of dollars, before it crashes? And the US has bullied so many countries for so many decades around the world, that many will see a chance to kick the bully back. The US cannot accept even 5% of the world’s dollars -- it would crash the US economy dragging much of the world with it, especially Britain.
To survive, as the Scottish Socialist Voice article stated, ‘the US, needs to generate a trade surplus to get out of this one. Problem is it can’t.’ This is spot on. To do that they must force US workers into near slavery, to get paid less than Chinese or Indian workers. We all know that this will not happen.
What will happen in the US? Chaos for sure. Maybe a workers revolution, but looking at the situation as it is now, it is more likely to be a re-run of Germany post-1929, and some form of extreme-right mass movement will emerge.
Does Europe and China/Asia have the economic independence and strength to stop the whole world’s economies collapsing with the US? Their vaults are full to the brim with dollars.
The US has to find a way to pay for its dollar-imperialist exploitation of the world since 1945. Somehow, eventually, it has to account for every dollar in every vault in the world.
Bombing Iran could backfire tremendously. It would bring Iran openly into the war in Iraq, behind the Shiite majority. The US cannot cope even now with the much smaller Iraqi insurgency. Perhaps the US will feed into the Sunni v Shiite conflict and turn it into a wider Middle-East civil-war. However, this is so dangerous for global oil supplies. Further, they know that this would be temporary, as some country somewhere else, will establish a euro-oil-exchange, perhaps in Brussels.
There is one ‘solution’ -- scrap the dollar and print a whole new currency for the US. This will destroy 66% of the rest of the world’s savings/reserves in one swoop. Imagine the implications? Such are the desperate things now swimming around heads in the White House, Wall Street and Pentagon.
Another is to do as Germany did, just before invading Poland in 1938. The Nazis filmed a mock Polish Army attack on Germany, to win hearts and minds at home. But again, this is a finger in the dam. So, how is the US going to escape this time? The only global arena of total superiority left is military. Who knows what horrors lie ahead. A new world war is one tool by which the US could discipline its ‘allies’ into keeping the dollar in their vaults.
The task of socialists today is to explain to as may as possible, especially our class, that the coming crisis belongs purely to capitalism and (dollar) imperialism. Not people of other cultures, not Islam, not the axis of evil or their so-called WMDs. Their system alone is to blame.
The new Iranian Oil Bourse, the IOB, is situated in a new building on the free-trade-zone island of Kish, in the Persian Gulf. It’s computers and software are all set to go. The IOB was supposed to be up and running last March, but many pressures forced a postponement. Where the pressure came from is obvious. It was internationally registered on 5th May and supposed to open mid-May, but its opening was put off, some saying the oil-mafia was involved, along with much international pressure. Just Google ‘pertroeuro’, and the story lies before you.
From now on, anyone in the know will wake up every morning and, even before coffee, will check out the latest exchange rate between the euro and dollar.
Dow drops below 11,000 for 1st time in 2 years
Stocks tumble on worries about Fannie, Freddie; Dow falls below 11,000 for 1st time in 2 years
By Tim Paradis
Friday July 11, 1:00 pm ET
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street sank further into a bear market Friday as investors dumped stocks in response to troubles at mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and oil's continuing climb into record territory. The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 200 points and slid below the 11,000 mark for the first time in two years.
Investors appeared unimpressed by a statement from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who said the government's focus is ensuring that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain as presently constituted to carry out their mission. Some investors had been hoping that the government would announce plans to take over one or both of the companies.
The government-chartered companies have fallen sharply in recent days on worries about their stability. Wall Street is worried that a collapse of the two financiers would cause further shock to the financial system, and trigger more losses to banks and brokerages with significant holdings of mortgage-backed securities.
The well-being of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is crucial because they hold or guarantee about $5 trillion worth of mortgages -- roughly half the $9.5 trillion debt of the United States. Their troubles are just the latest depressing turn in a year-old credit crisis that shows no sign of ending, disappointing some stock traders who thought just months ago that the worst was perhaps over.
Global banks and brokerages have scrambled to sell assets and raise capital in an effort to offset nearly $300 billion of write-downs linked to the credit crisis. Citigroup Inc. announced Friday it will sell its German retail banking operation to France's Credit Mutuel for $7.7 billion.
Investors also had little reason to shop for bargains Friday because many financial companies are reporting results next week and are expected to announce another round of big write-downs.
Meanwhile, oil continued its ascent on supply concerns. A barrel of oil vaulted to a record above $147, raising more concerns about the weight of higher prices on inflation and in turn, the overall economy.
The confluence of negative news offset a mostly positive quarterly report from General Electric Co. The conglomerate that owns everything from television network NBC to jet engine plants reported second-quarter profits that met analysts' expectations. However, the outlook across its business lines was mixed.
"You have two issues, crude popped back up $10 to $11 in the last few days, and that is causing some concern. The second point is the financial services sector, there is concern and speculation that Freddie, Fannie and Lehman won't be around on Monday. That's obviously causing worry," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.
In late morning trading, the Dow fell 224.06, or 2.00 percent, to 11,004.96 after having fallen to 10,980.37. It last traded below 11,000 on July 25, 2006.
Broader stock indicators also skidded lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 23.29, or 1.86 percent, to 1,230.10, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 36.97, or 1.64 percent, to 2,220.88.
Friday's drop meant Wall Street moved squarely into a bear market, which is defined as a 20 percent drop from a recent peak. At its low today, the Dow was down 22.5 percent from the reocrd high of 14,198.09 it reached in October. The S&P 500 was down 21.6 percent and the Nasdaq fell 22.6 percent.
Oil, meanwhile, extended its move into record territory, rising as high as $147.27. At midday, light, sweet crude traded up $2.44 at $144.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid tensions between the West and Iran and the potential for attacks on Nigerian oil facilities.
Bond prices fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.88 percent from 3.80 percent late Thursday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Orlando said investors are looking to Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke and Paulson for guidance.
"It feels like that Friday before the big Bear Stearns/JPMorgan announcement, so you're wondering if Bernanke and Paulson are going to sit around on the weekend trying to figure things out," Orlando said, referring to the near-collapse and subsequent Fed-orchestrated buyout of Bear Stearns.
"It seems all the confidence in the market has dissipated in these key financial services companies. When you talk about too big to fail, the government has to step in to figure out a solution to the Fannie and Freddie confidence issue," he said.
Freddie Mac fell $1.75, or 22 percent, to $6.25, while Fannie Mae tumbled $3.31, or 25 percent, to $9.89 as investors worried about their stability. Piper Jaffray analyst Robert Napoli lowered his price targets on both companies, and said in a note to clients investors should "not be in a position that only two government-sponsored lenders are willing to make mortgage loans and, without them, our economy would collapse."
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fell $3.20, or 18.5 percent, to $14.10 as traders fretted that the No. 4 investment bank will succumb to soured debt.
Citi slipped 41 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $15.87 after saying it will book a $4 billion gain from the sale of its German retail operation. The deal is part of a plan by Chief Executive Vikram Pandit to sell up to $500 billion in assets to help boost profitability.
Investors remain cautious about the entire financial sector, especially ahead of second-quarter reports due next week from major names like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. JPMorgan declined $2.09, or 6.1 percent, to $32.42 and Merrill fell $1.70, or 5.9 percent, to $27.01.
In economic news, the United States' trade deficit narrowed in May as exports -- including industrial supplies and consumer goods -- climbed to all-time highs. The Commerce Department said growing exports drove the trade gap down to $58.8 billion, a 1.2 percent decrease from April and the best showing since March.
Investors did get a better-than-expected reading on consumers. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rose to 56.6 for July from 56.4 in June. It had been expected to decline.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 722.6 million shares.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 7.04, or 1.04 percent, to 663.46.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.21 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.54 percent, Germany's DAX index declined 2.41 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 3.09 percent.
U.S. Weighs Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants
By STEPHEN LABATON and STEVEN R. WEISMAN
July 11, 2008
WASHINGTON — Alarmed by the growing financial stress at the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, senior Bush administration officials are considering a plan to have the government take over one or both of the companies and place them in a conservatorship if their problems worsen, people briefed about the plan said on Thursday.
The companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been hit hard by the mortgage foreclosure crisis. Their shares are plummeting and their borrowing costs are rising as investors worry that the companies will suffer losses far larger than the $11 billion they have already lost in recent months. Now, as housing prices decline further and foreclosures grow, the markets are worried that Fannie and Freddie themselves may default on their debt.
Under a conservatorship, the shares of Fannie and Freddie would be worth little or nothing, and any losses on mortgages they own or guarantee — which could be staggering — would be paid by taxpayers.
The government officials said that the administration had also considered calling for legislation that would offer an explicit government guarantee on the $5 trillion of debt owned or guaranteed by the companies. But that is a far less attractive option, they said, because it would effectively double the size of the public debt.
The officials also said that such a step would be ineffective because the markets already widely accept that the government stands behind the companies.
The officials involved in the discussions stressed that no action by the administration was imminent, and that Fannie and Freddie are not considered to be in a crisis situation. But in recent days, enough concern has built among senior government officials over the health of the giant mortgage finance companies for them to hold a series of meetings and conference calls to discuss contingency plans.
A conservatorship or other rescue operation would be the second time in four months that the Bush administration has stepped in to engineer a rescue to prevent the financial system from collapsing. Last March, it forced the sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase to avert a bankruptcy of that venerable investment house.
Officials have also been concerned that the difficulties of the two companies, if not fixed, could damage economies worldwide. The securities of Fannie and Freddie are held by numerous overseas financial institutions, central banks and investors.
Under a 1992 law, Fannie or Freddie could be put into conservatorship if their top regulator found that either one is “critically undercapitalized.” A conservator would have sweeping powers to overhaul them, but would not have the authority to close them.
The markets showed fresh signs on Thursday of being nervous about the future of the companies. Their stock prices continued a weeklong slide, hitting their lowest level in 17 years. The debt markets, meanwhile, pushed up the two companies’ cost of borrowing — their lifeblood for buying mortgages.
The companies are by far the biggest providers of financing for domestic home loans. If they are unable to borrow, they will not be able to buy mortgages from commercial lenders. In turn, that would make it more expensive and difficult, if not impossible, for home buyers to obtain credit, freezing the United States housing market. Even healthy banks are reluctant to tie up scarce capital by offering mortgages to low-risk home buyers without Fannie and Freddie taking the loans off their books.
Together the two companies touch more than half of the nation’s $12 trillion in mortgages by either owning them or backing them. They hold more than $1.5 trillion of the mortgages as securities. Others are sold to investors in the form of mortgage-backed bonds.
In recent weeks, the companies have spiraled downward, undermined by declining confidence in their future and shaken by sharp declines in their assets as the housing markets have continued to slide and foreclosures have risen.
In the last week alone, Freddie has lost 45 percent of its value, and Fannie is off 30 percent. Expectations of default at the companies have also risen; it costs three times as much today to buy insurance on a two-year Fannie bond as it did three years ago.
Analysts expect the companies to announce a new round of write-downs and possibly be forced to raise capital by issuing additional shares, which would dilute their value for current shareholders.
Despite repeated assurances from regulators about the financial soundness of the two institutions, financial markets have concluded that by some measures they are deeply troubled.
Freddie, for instance, is technically insolvent under fair value accounting rules, in which the company puts a market value on assets as if it had to sell them now.
Although Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, passed up invitations by lawmakers on Thursday to seek legislation to deal with the crisis, officials said that the administration had been privately considering a government takeover should the markets continue to turn against the companies.
At a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, both Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke were guarded, carefully trying not to say anything that could further erode confidence in Fannie and Freddie. They both said that the regulator of Fannie and Freddie had found that they were, in the words of Mr. Paulson, “adequately capitalized,” meaning that they had sufficient cash and other assets to withstand the turbulence in the markets.
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are also working through this challenging period,” Mr. Paulson said.
Neither official would address a question posed by Representative Dennis Moore, Democrat of Kansas, who asked whether the failure of either institution would pose a risk to the financial system.
“In today’s world I don’t think it is helpful to speculate about any financial institution and systemic risk,” Mr. Paulson said. “I’m dealing with the here and now, and the important role that they’re playing and other financial institutions are playing.”
Mr. Bernanke said that Fannie and Freddie “are well-capitalized in the regulatory sense” but added that they, and other major financial institutions, needed to raise their capital levels further.
Despite repeated denials by officials in the Bush and prior administrations, financial markets have long assumed the government would stand behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in times of difficulty, both because they are integral to the housing and financial markets and because the companies have a line of credit to the Treasury.
But Congress set that credit more than 38 years ago, long before the companies rose to such size and prominence, and its limit, $2.25 billion for each, has become a tiny fraction of the companies’ overall debt.
Some analysts have begun to propose that the Fed also permit the two companies to borrow from it, as Wall Street investment banks began doing after the rescue of Bear Stearns. But there is no indication that the Fed is contemplating such a move.
On Thursday, the rapid sell-off of shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac came after a former central banker made comments that the companies might not be solvent, and an analyst at UBS issued a report critical of Freddie Mac.
The turmoil also shook the debt of the companies, with one main measure indicating that their cost of borrowing has risen to the highest level since mid-March, when the government rescued Bear Stearns. Throughout the day, senior officials sought to reassure the markets about the financial health of Fannie and Freddie.
Later in the afternoon, James B. Lockhart, the regulator who oversees the two companies, issued a statement that his agency was carefully watching the companies’ “credit and capital positions” and said that they were adequate to get through the current turmoil.
Fannie Mae issued a statement saying that it remained financially strong.
“Our company has raised more than $14 billion in capital since November 2007, including $7.4 billion most recently in May,” the company said. “As our regulator has stated, and has reiterated in public statements this week, we are adequately capitalized.”
Sharon McHale, vice president for public relations at Freddie Mac, said: “Our regulator has emphasized that we have continued to maintain the highest capital rating, and we are in the market every day. We’ll continue to do so.”
Shares of Freddie Mac plunged more than 30 percent and Fannie Mae’s more than 20 percent in the first hour of trading on Thursday. By the close of trading, Fannie shares had fallen nearly 14 percent, and Freddie shares had dropped 22 percent. It was the second straight day of declines for the companies.
While their stocks trade on the New York Stock Exchange, Congress created the two companies to promote housing, and the marketplace has long come to believe that they would be bailed out should they become insolvent. They hold a far lower level of capital than banks do. In recent years, they have both suffered from accounting scandals and management shake-ups.
Neither Mr. Paulson nor Mr. Bernanke, at the hearing on Thursday, would answer a question about whether Congress needs to give the regulators more tools to deal with the possible insolvency at either company.
“I don’t think we should be speculating or talking about what-if’s with any particular institutions, and so with Fannie or Freddie, what I’m emphasizing is that the tool that I want is the reform and the reform legislation that would inject confidence into the marketplace,” Mr. Paulson said, referring to a measure that would revamp the oversight of the companies.
The problems of the two companies spilled onto the campaign trail on Thursday when Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, said he supported federal intervention to save Fannie or Freddie from collapsing.
“Those institutions, Fannie and Freddie, have been responsible for millions of Americans to be able to own their own homes, and they will not fail, we will not allow them to fail,” Mr. McCain said during a stop at the Senate Coney Island Restaurant in Livonia, Mich. “They are vital to Americans’ ability to own their own homes. And we will do what’s necessary to make sure that they continue that function.”
Jason Furman, the economic policy director for the Democratic presidential campaign of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, said that Mr. Obama “believes the Bush administration’s willful neglect of warning signs in housing, in financial markets and in the job market, have compromised the nation’s housing finance system.”
“The challenges facing Fannie and Freddie are part of the broader weakness in our economy,” Mr. Furman said.
Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York and chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said that the markets should rest assured that the mortgage giants have a “federal lifeline” and would not be allowed to fail — though he said he thought a government rescue would not be needed and should be a last resort.
油价不断攀升 生物柴油缘何陷入困境
来源：CCTV
2008年07月11日
在各种新能源当中，从动植物油脂中提炼出的生物柴油，公认是优质的石化柴油替代品，它污染小、原料可再生，也被称为“绿色柴油”，这些年，国内不少企业把钱投在提炼生物柴油上，按理说，正好赶上油价不断上涨、柴油供应紧张的当口，这些炼油厂日子应该非常好过，但我们却发现一些生物炼油厂现在却已经揭不开锅了，这到底是怎么一回事？
被称为“绿色柴油”的生物柴油面临揭不开锅的困境
胡谅伦，是青岛城阳区广源发生物柴油厂的负责人，最近一段时间他一直在为厂里的停产而着急上火。
青岛广源发生物柴油厂董事长胡谅伦：“很着急，这么些设备投资这么大，都停在这，但从目前来看，我着急也没有办法。”
在这家生物柴油厂，记者看到，占地80多亩的厂区冷冷清清，车间外的院子里，竖立着大大小小的各种各样的成品油罐和原料油罐，整个厂区已经看不到工人的身影，在这些油罐旁停放着许多运送油品的罐装车，从这些车摆放的位置可以看出，已经停在这里长时间没有使用了。
青岛广源发生物柴油厂经理刘振德：“30多辆车，现在也都没事，现在都停下了，因为进不来原料，也出不去成品油。”
胡谅伦告诉记者，目前他们这个厂已经停产快一年了。
胡谅伦：“石油在不断的涨价，粮食也在不断的涨价，所有猪的大油也在提高价格，甲醇也在提高价格，从目前的角度我们是做不了，如果做下去企业还是要亏损的。”
胡谅伦一直从事炼油行业，2002年他开始研究用猪大油的下脚料、以及棕榈油炼制生物柴油，产品质量已经达到国家相关标准。
胡谅伦：“当时猪大油的价格又比较便宜，资源也比较多。”
胡谅伦认为，生物柴油不但原料比较丰富，而且在环保上也有着其独特的优势。
胡谅伦：“它的尾气排放是个零，在环保上完全是过关的。”
2006年7月，胡谅伦投资一千多万元建起了现在的生物柴油厂，年产能力达到10万吨，最初因油品价格低、质量可靠，很快便接到了大量的柴油订单，但接下来发生的事，却让他始料不及。
胡谅伦：“粮食涨价，甲醇涨价，主要是涨价问题。”
投产不到半个月，库存的30多吨猪大油、棕榈油等原料被用光，后继的原料补充不上来，刚刚开始运转的生产线只好停机，据了解，现在猪大油已经从原来的每吨2500元，猛涨到每吨8000多元，棕榈油也从原来每吨2800元，涨到现在的每吨12000元，而柴油的价格现在只有每吨7850元，远远低于原料的价格。
胡谅伦：“现在我们只能停了，没有别的办法。”
在青岛，因为缺少生物柴油原料而发愁的不仅仅是胡谅伦，辛华鹏，是青岛最早涉足生物柴油研究和生产的，他的青岛绿诺新能源公司在青岛也小有名气，现在他在青岛和济南各建了一个生物炼油厂，但目前同样也遇到缺少原料的困境。
青岛绿诺新能源有限公司董事长辛华鹏：“这已经停了3个多月了。”
记者：“你们现在大概是一个什么样的情况？”
辛华鹏：“现在情况比较惨，工人暂时都放假，等到合适利润空间时候再开始做。”
辛华鹏厂里所用的原料为城市宾馆饭店废弃的地沟油，考虑到青岛利用地沟油生产生物柴油的企业多，原料市场竞争激烈，两年前，他又筹资一千万元在济南建了一个生物炼油厂，以利用济南当地的地沟油，缓解原料价格上涨带来的压力。
辛华鹏：“做生物柴油的工厂在济南目前只有一家。”
一年前因为原料短缺，辛华鹏忍痛停掉了青岛的生物炼油厂，以保证济南这边生物柴油的生产，但不管辛华鹏怎样苦苦地支撑，最后也没有逃脱厂里停产的厄运。
辛华鹏：“2004年批量生产的时候原料才1800元一吨，最便宜的时候1600元一吨，当时柴油的价格是4000多块钱，现在柴油是7000多块钱，原料是5000多。”
在辛华鹏的工厂，记者看到，因为没有生产，整个车间显得静悄悄地，生产的油罐发生器上、仪表盘上、办公桌上都布满了厚厚的灰尘，辛华鹏告诉记者，每个星期他都要从青岛来济南的厂里看上一次，面对着眼前闲置的设备，面对着空荡荡的厂房，此时辛华鹏感觉自己的心里也是空荡荡的，因为，这里投入了他全部的心血和财力，面对着记者的采访，他也时常表现得忧心忡忡。
记者：“你现在是一个什么心情？”
辛华鹏：“无奈，很沮丧，没有办法。”
无论猪大油、棕榈油还是地沟油，生物柴油这几种原料，今年价格都在成倍地暴涨，远远超过了柴油上涨的幅度，照这样做下去，胡谅伦和辛华鹏他们炼的生物柴油越多，赔的也就越多，还不如干脆关门，就在青岛这两家生物柴油厂日渐艰难的时候，青岛附近的莱西市却又有一家生物柴油厂开张了，它是不是能找到更便宜的原料？我们的记者赶到了莱西。
郑平安一直在青岛经营汽车生意，2007年他看好了生物柴油的发展前景，拿出全部家当，投资近两千万元在莱西新建了生物柴油厂，利用地沟油为原料生产柴油。
青岛福瑞斯生物能源科技开发有限公司郑平安：“这是我们从小商贩收购的地沟油。”
记者：“这个多少钱一吨？”
郑平安：“这个现在是5400元一吨。”
记者：“你们最早是多少钱？”
郑平安：“最早是2800一吨，3000元左右。”
记者：“2800元是什么时候的价格？”
郑平安：“去年年底12月份。”
郑平安告诉记者，2007年建厂初期，他们以地沟油为原料，进行了生物柴油的试生产，取得了成功。
郑平安：“这就是依靠地沟油来做生物柴油，这就是我们的成品，我们都有试验。”
试验虽然做成了，但令郑平安没有想到的是，不到一年的时间，他们的工厂还没有建成，但原料地沟油的价格却已经让他们难以承受。
郑平安：“我们当初建厂的时候一吨油能挣2000多块钱，现在只有几百块钱，不到1000块钱，等于基本上就是没有利润。”
地沟油的突然大幅度的涨价，让郑平安始料不及，也让他被迫放弃了用地沟油做为生产柴油原料的想法。
记者：“你们是等于是没有办法。”
郑平安：“只能是改其它的油脂做原料，下脚料来做生物柴油。”
而辛华鹏经过调查以后认为，对于郑平安以植物油的下脚料为原料上的想法，在工厂正式投产以后，很难实现。
辛华鹏：“目前它（胶东的植物油厂）原料也很难支撑，这么多的生物柴油工厂。”
记者：“为什么？”
辛华鹏：“原料太少。”
原料价格暴涨，炼油企业难以为继
胡谅伦、辛华鹏和郑平安三个人都掌握了生物柴油的生产技术，产品销路也都不错，但都卡在了原料供应上，辛华鹏告诉记者，地沟油、植物油下脚料，这些过去当成废物倒掉还嫌污染太大，现在却打着灯笼都不好找，为什么生物柴油的原料一下变得这么金贵？记者到地处青岛城乡结合部的一家地沟油生产厂进行采访。
在青岛的一家地沟油厂记者看到，车间里并没有记者想象得那么热闹，几名工人正在一个过滤池旁，倾倒收集到的地沟油，厂里的负责人告诉记者，他们现在收购生产地沟油的原料并不充足。
记者：“你们多长时间生产一次？”
青岛环科废油脂利用有限公司负责人孙春扬：“一个礼拜生产一次。”
记者：“为什么？”
孙春扬：“因为整个青岛市场收购地沟油是有限的，我们青岛一个月加工加起来的话两家地沟油厂不到100吨。”
这位负责人还告诉记者，现在由于利用地沟油作为原料的产品很多，企业间相互竞争，这就自然造成了地沟油的短缺。
孙春扬：“塑料行业用的增塑剂，还有一个是脂肪酸，它们都可以用到我们产品，它们也需要这样的产品，所以就造成几个项目来争一个原料。”
采访中孙春扬拿出了他们企业与青岛各个宾馆酒店签订的还回收地沟油的价格合同。
孙春扬：“这家企业我们每年要交两万，一家就要交两万，这家是八千。”
记者：“这个以前你交多少？”
孙春扬：“以前可以说是免费的。”
记者：“你们一年大概要交这样的费用交多少？”
孙春扬：“我们大概一年要交几十万。”
一年地沟油的生产厂家成本就增加了几十万，这必然造成地沟油价格的大幅度的提高，再加上企业间的竞争，因此，地沟油现在在青岛就自然成了许多行业的香饽饽。
孙春扬：“整个青岛市场的地沟油产量是永远不够一家生物柴油企业生存。”
在青岛市难以解决原料问题，广源发燃油厂的刘震德一大早就驱车3个多小时赶往紧邻山东的江苏省东海县的一家生物原料油厂，协商价格问题，以解决厂里的燃眉之急。
青岛广源发生物柴油厂经理刘振德：“这个油以前也就四千元左右，现在市场用的太多了，这个油的价位也挺高的。”
在这家工厂记者看到，虽然刘震德跟厂里的这位负责人软磨硬泡，以自己的企业需求量大为借口，希望在价格上给以降低，但每吨8千多元的价格还是让他望而却步。
记者：“等于是这个油你们还是不能用。”
刘振德：“做生物柴油做不来。”
江苏省东海县原料油厂负责人：“主要是市场用的比较多，做饲料的，化工的，生物柴油竞争比较强，所有价格就高一些。”
那么目前整个青岛市生产生物柴油的原料市场到底怎样？记者来到了青岛市科技局进行调查，在这里，记者拍摄到了青岛市科技局这样的一份调查材料，在这份调查材料上这样写着，目前青岛市能够用于生物柴油生产的全年原料为地沟油2万吨，植物油下脚料为5万吨，废弃动物油脂3万吨，也就说，青岛现在全年理论上能使用的原料油只有10万吨。而事实上现在青岛市的生物柴油企业的生产能力已经达到了十七八万吨。
青岛市科学技术局处长宋长虹：“我们青岛现在生物柴油的生产能力已经超过我们青岛市目前原料供应的状况，从这个角度来说，即使这3个企业按照目前的生产能力不再扩大规模，我们青岛市目前用于生物柴油的原料已经不足了。”
如何解决生物柴油原料紧张的问题，发展种植业是目前根本途径和有效手段
我们可以大致描绘出生物柴油现在的处境：供应不足，导致原料价格暴涨。而在沉重的成本压力下，炼油企业难以为继。实际上，原料供应始终是制约国内生物柴油发展的瓶颈，目前，全国生物柴油生产能力超过300万吨，实际产量只有30万吨左右，不少生物柴油生产企业普遍开工率较低，无米下锅，很多人想不到，这个新兴的能源产业诞生没多久就遭遇到了生存危机。
广源发生物柴油厂停产已经一年多了，但工人们还要定期对生产设备进行维护。
青岛广源发生物柴油厂职工：“我们的设备经常检修保养，不保养的话就烂掉了。”
胡谅伦告诉记者，现在他的生物柴油厂停产一年的损失将近200万元。
青岛广源发生物柴油厂董事长胡谅伦：“研究这个科研的时候是花费了几年的时间，这里花费的心血也很大，费用也很高，所以我们把它研究成功的时候，从我的心态来说很高兴的，愿意把它继续干下去。”
然而不断上涨的原料价格，让胡谅伦越来越难以承受。
胡谅伦：“从目前的状况来看确实是干不下去。”
目前在青岛，处于进退两难境地的不仅仅是胡谅伦一人。
青岛绿诺新能源有限公司董事长辛华鹏：“不产生利润，我不能在这赔钱，我现在暂时工人放假，我可以降低支出。”
虽然厂里停产，但辛华鹏现在开始给有原料的企业转让生物柴油技术，以让他的两个工厂维持下去。
辛华鹏：“后期还是看好这个行业，还需要时间。”
调查中记者了解到，因为生物柴油的原料问题，许多企业目前已经难以为继。
青岛市科学技术局处长宋长虹：“应该在生物柴油方面国家要有相关的政策，如果没有政策的话，可能这个产业就会夭折。”
现在，大家都明白了，光靠地沟油、猪大油这些有限的原料，根本填不饱这么多生物柴油厂，像美国、法国、德国，它们开始用大豆油、菜籽油做原料生产生物柴油，而我们国家的云南、贵州、广东等地，开始大面积种植一种麻风树，据说它也可以炼出生物柴油，满足这么多炼油厂的需求，我们就到广东去看看这种神奇的植物。
记者来的了广州的中国科学院华南植物研究所，一直从事我国麻风树研究的吴国江告诉记者，发展种植业是解决目前我国生物柴油原料紧张的根本途径和有效手段。
中国科学院华南植物研究所博士吴国江：“要发展种植业和品种的选育，保障或者在一定程度上保障市场的供求。”
麻风树又叫柴油树，因为其出油率高，在山坡荒地里就能生长，不用占用耕地，因此，被作为替代生物柴油原料的重要树种。
吴国江：“炼油就是用这个种子，种子有个壳，把壳剥开以后里面有个种仁，这里面它的含油量很高，这个含油量超过50%。”
谢勋老人来自台湾，来到广东十几年，一直从事农业开发和投资，他对发展生物能源一直看好。
广东佛冈伊甸园农牧开发有限公司负责人谢勋：“我们中国人口多，我们不能用平地，我们不能跟粮食争地，还有很多的荒山荒地，所以我们就选择这个品种来种这个东西。”
2007年他筹资1000万元，在他承包的荒山上种植了6000多亩的麻风树。
谢勋：“这棵树去年是从这里开始，一年长的这么多，这个是很适合这里生长的，现在只是结果跟出油率而已了。”
看到自己种下的麻风树长势良好，谢勋老人非常高兴，他打算在这里再投资一千万元，扩大麻风树的种植面积，实现麻风树的产业化发展。
谢勋：“现在我充满了信心。”
在谢勋老人的办公室，记者看到了他和吴国江等有关科研机构设计的利用麻风树做原料，生产生物柴油的流程图，吴国江告诉记者，目前麻风树要实现产业化生产，前面还有很多的难题要克服，但在我国毕竟找到了解决生物柴油原料问题的一个方向。
吴国江：“我们国家有很多的荒地不适应农耕的地，这些地我们去发展生物柴油的话，从这个土地种植，包括解决农村的就业问题都会起到积极作用，同时还可以替代部分液体燃料，它的前景是非常好的。”
半小时观察：生物柴油为何成了“鸡肋”？
随着原油价格的节节攀升，生物制油产业出现了良好的发展前景。可是令人感到意外的是，伴随着高油价同时到来的，还有猪大油和地沟油等原材料价格的大幅上升。生物柴油一下子失去了成本的优势，重新变成了“鸡肋”，食之无味，弃之可惜。
作为寻找替代能源的一种努力，生物柴油无疑可以减缓高油价的压力。而且由于生物油是清洁可再生能源，具有突出的环保性能，既没有毒性，又不含有害物质。所以生物制油的努力，值得鼓励也值得推广。
困扰生物柴油产业发展的根本原因一方面是成本，另一方面是观念。如果原材料成本继续上升，目前的生物柴油企业将因为无利可图而陷入停产、倒闭的困境中；如果大家的观念不发生改变，生物柴油缺乏政策支持，缺乏整体的发展规划，只靠各家企业单打独斗，即使技术成熟了，这个产业也没办法发展壮大。
石油代表着过去，生物制油代表着未来。对于未来，我们需要共同呵护。只有各方共同努力，政策和观念共同扶持，生物制油企业加大研发力度，这个产业才会出现大的跨越，才会在利益的驱动下提供更多的油料，帮助我们解决当前的“石油危机”。 (文/CCTV)
Government shuts down mortgage lender IndyMac
By ALEX VEIGA
July 11, 2008
LOS ANGELES (AP) - IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators on Friday after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.
The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said.
The Office of Thrift Supervision said it transferred IndyMac's operations to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation because it did not think the lender could meet its depositors' demands.
IndyMac customers with funds in the bank were limited to taking out money via automated teller machines over the weekend, debit card transactions or checks, regulators said.
Other bank services, such as online banking and phone banking were scheduled to be made available on Monday.
"This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.
The lender's failure came the same day that financial markets plunged when investors tried to gauge whether the government would have to save mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Shares of Fannie and Freddie dropped to 17-year lows before the stocks recovered somewhat. Wall Street is growing more convinced that the government will have to bail out the country's biggest mortgage financiers, whose failure could deal a tremendous blow to the already staggering economy.
The FDIC estimated that its takeover of IndyMac would cost between $4 billion and $8 billion.
IndyMac's collapse is second only to that of Continental Illinois National Bank, which had nearly $40 billion in assets when it failed in 1984, according to the FDIC.
News of the takeover distressed Alan Sands, who showed up at the company's headquarters in Pasadena, Calif., to find out when he could withdraw his funds.
"Hopefully the FDIC insurance will take care of it," said Sands, of El Monte, Calif. "I'm also kind of kicking myself for not taking care of this sooner, sooner as in the last couple of days."
A couple of dozen customers could be seen outside the building, reading fliers handed out by FDIC staff. The agency set up a toll-free number for bank customers to call.
IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the holding company for IndyMac Bank, has been struggling to raise capital as the housing slump deepens.
IndyMac had $32.01 billion in assets as of March 31.
A spokesman for the lender referred media queries to the FDIC.
The banking regulator said it closed IndyMac after customers began a run on the lender following the June 26 release of a letter by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., urging several bank regulatory agencies that they take steps to prevent IndyMac's collapse.
In the 11 days that followed the letter's release, depositors took out more than $1.3 billion, regulators said.
In a statement Friday, Schumer said IndyMac's failure was due to long-standing practices by the bank, not recent events.
"If OTS had done its job as regulator and not let IndyMac's poor and loose lending practices continue, we wouldn't be where we are today," Schumer said. "Instead of pointing false fingers of blame, OTS should start doing its job to prevent future IndyMacs."
The FDIC planned to reopen the bank on Monday as IndyMac Federal Bank, FSB.
Deposits are insured up to $100,000 per depositor.
As of March 31, IndyMac had total deposits of $19.06 billion.
Some 10,000 depositors had funds in excess of the insured limit, for a total of $1 billion in potentially uninsured funds, the FDIC said.
Customers with uninsured deposits could begin making appointments to file a claim with the FDIC on Monday. The agency said it would pay unsecured depositors an advance dividend equal to half of the uninsured amount.
During a conference call with reporters, FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair said the agency would cover all insured deposits and then try to recover its costs by selling IndyMac's assets.
"We anticipate trying to market the institution as a whole bank," Bair said. "How much money we derive from that will depend on who gets paid what."
Holders of unsecured IndyMac debt may not fully recover their investment, Bair said.
"Generally if a creditor is secured, they are at the top of the claims priority," she said. "If they are unsecured, they're pretty low on the claims priority and probably will take some type of haircut with this, but we have not had a chance to do a thorough analysis to know ... how extensive those losses will be."
IndyMac spent the last two weeks trying to reassure customers that it was not near default.
On Monday, IndyMac announced it had stopped accepting new loan submissions and planned to slash 3,800 jobs, or more than half of its work force — the largest employee cuts in company history.
In the letter to shareholders, IndyMac Chairman and Chief Executive Michael W. Perry said the drastic measures were made in conjunction with banking regulators to improve the company's financial footing and "meet our mutual goal of keeping Indymac safe and sound through this crisis period."
The plan was supposed to generate roughly $5 billion to $10 billion per year of new loans backed by government-sponsored mortgage companies, Perry said at the time.
But the run on its deposits ultimately short-circuited the strategy, prompting regulators to take action Friday.
Lehman shares plunge amid market distress
Dan Wilchins
July 11, 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Lehman Brothers plunged to nine-year lows and stock in other Wall Street firms declined as new signs of distress in financial markets spooked investors.
Lehman fell as much as 23 percent, before recovering to close down 16.6 percent on Friday, far outpacing the drop in rivals such as Merrill Lynch & Co , which lost 3.8 percent and Goldman Sachs Group Inc , which declined 4.5 percent.
In the last two weeks, Lehman has lost about a third of its market value, and the company's shares now trade at less than half their book value, or the net accounting value of its assets, which typically signals extreme distress.
The investment bank has been the subject of false rumors in the past, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether investors have looked to profit by spreading rumors to push down the company's shares.
On Thursday, its shares were battered by rumors -- later discredited -- that some key customers, Pimco and SAC Capital, had pulled business away from it. Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund, said on Thursday it continued to trade normally with Lehman as did SAC, a prominent hedge fund.
Standard & Poor's on Friday refuted negative speculation, saying Lehman appears to have "sound credit fundamentals."
"The persistent and ongoing pressure on Lehman's stock price in recent days has not had negative effects on Lehman's liquidity, funding or client business," said S&P, affirming its "A/Negative/A-1" counterparty rating on the stock.
On June 30, Lehman's shares dropped on rumors that it was going to be bought out at a price below its then market price. Again, the rumors could not in any way be substantiated.
The U.S. stock market fell on Friday, largely because of fears that the U.S. housing crisis would drag down the nation's major mortgage finance agencies, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae , and because the government offered no hint that it would step in swiftly to help.
Around the time Bear Stearns collapsed, the Federal Reserve opened backup financing lines for Wall Street, which should prevent a major investment bank from failing overnight.
But even with the ability to borrow against assets at the Federal Reserve, Lehman could run into trouble, said James Ellman, president at hedge fund Seacliff Capital in San Francisco, which has about $200 million under management. He said Seacliff does not have a position in Lehman.
"They can walk all the assets they want to the Fed, but clients can still take funds elsewhere, and if enough clients decide to remove their business, that brokerage likely does not survive long-term," Ellman said.
Bear Stearns, once the fifth-largest U.S. investment bank, faced a run on the bank in March, and was forced to sell itself.
"People think Lehman will be acquired by someone at below its current share price. Just look at what happened with Bear Stearns," said Jim Huguet, co-chief executive at fund manager Great Companies, which manages $300 million. Great Companies does not have a position in Lehman.
It is extremely difficult to know the market value of the mortgages, real estate, and related securities that are valued on Lehman's books at around $60 billion, experts said.
Huguet said that it was difficult for Lehman given the ferociousness of short sellers.
"Everybody is totally negative on financial stocks, and until housing prices stabilize, and people feel like there is liquidity for these firms, the market will continue to take them down. It's interesting the way the shorts have gotten -- it's almost like a group of piranhas. Something in the water is hurt, and all of the sudden it has 10,000 piranhas on it."
Lehman spokeswoman Kerrie Cohen declined to comment.
Lehman's shares closed down $2.87, or or 16.6 percent, at $14.43 on Friday. Earlier, they touched a low of $13.29, their lowest level since 1999.
OPEC Has Already Turned to the Euro
America's Second Biggest Bank Failure
- GoldMoney Alert from James Turk, 12 July 2008
US Treasury rescue for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Treasury secretary looks at $15 billion cash injection for crisis-hit mortgage lenders
Iain Dey and Dominic Rushe
July 13, 2008
US TREASURY secretary Hank Paulson is working on plans to inject up to $15 billion (£7.5 billion) of capital into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to stem the crisis at America’s biggest mortgage firms.
The two companies lost almost half their market value last week as rumours of a government bail-out swept the stock markets, hammering share prices around the world.
Together, the two stockholder-owned, government-sponsored companies own or guarantee almost half of America’s $12 trillion home-loan market and are vital to the functioning of the housing market.
The capital-injection plan is said to be high on a list of options being considered by regulators as a means of restoring confidence in the lenders. The move would protect the American housing market, but punish shareholders in both companies.
Under the terms of the proposed move, the US government would receive a new class of shares in exchange for the capital, which would be hugely dilutive to shareholders.
The potential rescue comes as investors are braced for more bad news from the financial sector. Citigroup is expected to reveal further writedowns of at least $8 billion with its second-quarter results, and Merrill Lynch is forecast to reveal writedowns of some $4 billion.
Both banks are expected to post sizeable losses for the second quarter, and reveal plans to sell off billions of pounds worth of assets.
A number of US regulators and politicians have been attempting to restore confidence in the two mortgage agencies.
Paulson and President George Bush stepped in to give vocal support to the two firms on Friday. “Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are very important institutions,” said Bush, adding that he had spoken with Paulson who had “assured me that he and Ben Bernanke [the Federal Reserve chairman] will be working this issue very hard”.
Paulson killed off speculation that the government would renationalise the two agencies, a move that would have pitched the US public accounts into a new state of crisis.
However, Paulson pledged to support the two companies “in their current form”. He is said to have been concerned about the prospect of a rescue plan benefiting shareholders.
The capital injection would also see both lenders granted permission to use the Federal Reserve’s discount window - a short-term emergency funding source.
Freddie Mac has a $3 billion short-term funding line that comes up for renewal tomorrow. The short-term debt is one of the hundreds of funding lines that the two agencies use.
The funding lines allow Freddie and Fannie to buy mortgages from America’s commercial banks, which it then sells on to bond investors through securitisations. A government guarantee on the company’s debts allows it to raise money cheaply, making mortgages cheaper to finance for US banks.
Some in Wall Street believe a rescue plan may be announced ahead of tomorrow’s US market opening to calm nerves and support the debt auction.
Howard Shapiro, a Wall Street analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton, said: “I think it will happen over the weekend. There will be government action but it will be far short of the dire scenarios that people are envisioning.” He said there was “no question” that the two firms were fundamentally sound.
He added that Paulson would have to move in order to “change the psychology” of the market and put Fannie and Freddie back on a stable footing.
David Buik, partner at BGC Partners, said: “These agencies are the backbone of financial society in the US. They simply cannot be allowed to fail, and the government won’t allow them to fail. Whatever the solution is to this problem, I can’t imagine it will be good for shareholders.”
He added: “In London we may see a dead-cat bounce on Monday, especially if we get a rescue. But that’s all it will be - shares may pop up 50 points or so, but then they will head down again.”
In the UK markets, HBOS will this week complete its £4 billion rights issue in a move that could see underwriters Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Kleinwort lumbered with more than £1 billion of the bank’s stock.
More than 13% of the HBOS shares in issue have been sold short by hedge funds - a bet that the bank’s share price will fall.
Bradford & Bingley will also put its lifesaving £400m rights issue to a shareholder vote.
Robert Parkes, UK equity strategist at HSBC, said: “It’s a seller’s market - we’re generally advising clients to sit on the sidelines until all the current issues blow over.”
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