China’s fuel hike to stabilise supplies before Olympics: analysts
Shanghai (AFP) June 22, 2008 - China's sudden move to raise fuel prices will prevent shortages before the Olympics, but it is unlikely to bring down world oil prices or slow down the country's manufacturers, analysts said.
The Chinese government announced it would make petrol and diesel up to 18 percent more expensive just days before sending Vice President Xi Jinping to Sunday's gathering of oil producers and consumers in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
The Chinese price hike also came right after Beijing signed a 10-year energy cooperation agreement with Washington.
However, rather than an olive branch for the Americans, who argue Beijing's price controls are an unfair subsidy for Chinese industries, the move likely had more to do with releasing a pressure valve to keep the economy growing.
Beijing has been grappling with record oil prices, the worst inflation in a decade and a volatile stock market that has lost more than half its value since October.
In this situation, it could not afford fuel shortages as it hosts the August Olympics, according to analysts.
"The energy shortage has become a bigger threat to stability ahead of the Olympics," Deutsche Bank's chief Greater China economist Ma Jun wrote in a report.
It had reached the point where China's oil giants, who dominate the stock market, saw no incentive to increase production only to sell products at a loss.
"It should have been raised much earlier. The government knew it and was just waiting for a good time," said Wang Jing, a Shanghai-based oil analyst with Orient Securities. It saw an opening as inflation showed signs of easing in the coming months, she said.
At the same time other Asian governments were also curbing their subsidies.
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who represented Washington in talks with Chinese officials last week, had urged Beijing to let the market set prices and supply.
He argued fuel prices in China-which before the hike had only risen 9 percent since the beginning of 2007 -- had unfairly shielded Chinese companies from the shock of oil prices nearing 140 dollars a barrel.
But economists said the price hike was unlikely to give China's foreign competitors a boost by dramatically increasing the price of Chinese-made goods.
"Some of the claims about subsidies in energy are exaggerated," said Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based China economist at Standard Chartered.
"It's clear Chinese companies benefit in many ways from the tax code, they benefit from free land, they benefit from some from the looser environmental regulations, but I don't think energy is a key issue."
Inflation in China is actually expected to slow to around 6 percent in the second half of the year after hitting a 12-year high of 8.7 percent in February, Deutsche Bank's Ma said.
Chinese manufacturers were not expected to pass the rise in increased energy costs on to customers-instead taking a hit in their profits, Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
"It will definitely increase our operating costs, mainly transportation costs," said a planning executive at Yamaha Motor's Chinese joint venture in the southwestern city of Chongqing, who identified himself by his surname Ge.
He said the company had no immediate plans to raise the price of the motorcycles it makes in Chongqing and transports long distances by road, mostly for domestic customers and in smaller numbers for export to North and South America.
"I guess it will not be a big change," he said. "It's not a big shock, we all knew this would be the future trend."
The increase in fuel price is expected to help unblock China's economy by encouraging it to satisfy pent-up demand left after the growing gap between rising energy prices and artificial price caps stifled supply from refiners.
"Normally, a price increase will have a negative impact on demand," UBS economist Wang Tao wrote in a report.
"However, since China's oil product (and hence overall crude oil) consumption has been effectively rationed because of the widespread shortages, the price hike may actually result in an increase in oil consumption in China."
Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday after China's announcement with the benchmark oil futures contract, New York's light sweet crude for July delivery, climbing 78 cents higher to 132.71 dollars per barrel. "The impact (on global oil markets) cannot be overstated," said Gideon Lo, a Hong Kong-based analyst with DBS Vickers.
"The China factor certainly has some influence on international oil prices as its crude demand sees the largest growth in the world," he said.
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China’s fuel hike to stabilise supplies before Olympics: analysts
Shanghai (AFP) June 22, 2008 - China's sudden move to raise fuel prices will prevent shortages before the Olympics, but it is unlikely to bring down world oil prices or slow down the country's manufacturers, analysts said.
The Chinese government announced it would make petrol and diesel up to 18 percent more expensive just days before sending Vice President Xi Jinping to Sunday's gathering of oil producers and consumers in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
The Chinese price hike also came right after Beijing signed a 10-year energy cooperation agreement with Washington.
However, rather than an olive branch for the Americans, who argue Beijing's price controls are an unfair subsidy for Chinese industries, the move likely had more to do with releasing a pressure valve to keep the economy growing.
Beijing has been grappling with record oil prices, the worst inflation in a decade and a volatile stock market that has lost more than half its value since October.
In this situation, it could not afford fuel shortages as it hosts the August Olympics, according to analysts.
"The energy shortage has become a bigger threat to stability ahead of the Olympics," Deutsche Bank's chief Greater China economist Ma Jun wrote in a report.
It had reached the point where China's oil giants, who dominate the stock market, saw no incentive to increase production only to sell products at a loss.
"It should have been raised much earlier. The government knew it and was just waiting for a good time," said Wang Jing, a Shanghai-based oil analyst with Orient Securities. It saw an opening as inflation showed signs of easing in the coming months, she said.
At the same time other Asian governments were also curbing their subsidies.
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who represented Washington in talks with Chinese officials last week, had urged Beijing to let the market set prices and supply.
He argued fuel prices in China-which before the hike had only risen 9 percent since the beginning of 2007 -- had unfairly shielded Chinese companies from the shock of oil prices nearing 140 dollars a barrel.
But economists said the price hike was unlikely to give China's foreign competitors a boost by dramatically increasing the price of Chinese-made goods.
"Some of the claims about subsidies in energy are exaggerated," said Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based China economist at Standard Chartered.
"It's clear Chinese companies benefit in many ways from the tax code, they benefit from free land, they benefit from some from the looser environmental regulations, but I don't think energy is a key issue."
Inflation in China is actually expected to slow to around 6 percent in the second half of the year after hitting a 12-year high of 8.7 percent in February, Deutsche Bank's Ma said.
Chinese manufacturers were not expected to pass the rise in increased energy costs on to customers-instead taking a hit in their profits, Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
"It will definitely increase our operating costs, mainly transportation costs," said a planning executive at Yamaha Motor's Chinese joint venture in the southwestern city of Chongqing, who identified himself by his surname Ge.
He said the company had no immediate plans to raise the price of the motorcycles it makes in Chongqing and transports long distances by road, mostly for domestic customers and in smaller numbers for export to North and South America.
"I guess it will not be a big change," he said. "It's not a big shock, we all knew this would be the future trend."
The increase in fuel price is expected to help unblock China's economy by encouraging it to satisfy pent-up demand left after the growing gap between rising energy prices and artificial price caps stifled supply from refiners.
"Normally, a price increase will have a negative impact on demand," UBS economist Wang Tao wrote in a report.
"However, since China's oil product (and hence overall crude oil) consumption has been effectively rationed because of the widespread shortages, the price hike may actually result in an increase in oil consumption in China."
Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday after China's announcement with the benchmark oil futures contract, New York's light sweet crude for July delivery, climbing 78 cents higher to 132.71 dollars per barrel. "The impact (on global oil markets) cannot be overstated," said Gideon Lo, a Hong Kong-based analyst with DBS Vickers.
"The China factor certainly has some influence on international oil prices as its crude demand sees the largest growth in the world," he said.
曾淵滄： 成 品 油 加 價 不 影 響 國 際 油 價
2008年06月23日（星期一）
上 星 期 四 晚 上 ， 中 央 發 改 委 突 然 宣 佈 提 高 石 油 成 品 油 價 格 約 17% 左 右 ， 該 消 息 自 然 對 中 石 油 （ 857 ） 和 中 石 化 （ 386 ） 有 利 ， 因 為 兩 家 石 油 公 司 都 經 營 成 品 油 生 意 。 這 個 消 息 使 到 紐 約 預 託 證 券 市 場 港 股 全 面 上 升 ， 因 為 投 資 者 將 發 改 委 的 這 個 行 動 當 成 是 中 央 救 市 的 行 為 。
上 星 期 五 港 股 開 市 ， 初 期 成 品 油 加 價 的 新 聞 似 乎 沒 有 甚 麼 大 的 作 用 ， 港 股 僅 算 是 微 升 ， 但 很 快 地 恒 指 升 幅 擴 大 至 約 600 點 ， 然 後 又 再 大 幅 回 跌 ， 最 後 收 市 倒 跌 。
股 市 又 升 又 跌 ， 說 明 了 投 資 者 對 成 品 油 加 價 一 事 的 評 價 參 差 不 一 。
上 星 期 五 上 午 ， 恰 好 我 應 邀 在 電 視 節 目 中 當 現 場 嘉 賓 ， 主 持 人 以 這 個 課 題 問 我 有 甚 麼 意 見 。 那 時 候 指 上 升 了 560 點 左 右 ， 我 在 現 場 所 給 的 評 語 是 ： 成 品 油 加 價 對 不 同 行 業 的 影 響 不 一 樣 ， 對 中 石 油 、 中 石 化 是 好 事 ， 但 對 用 油 用 電 的 企 業 是 壞 事 ， 因 為 電 費 也 上 升 ， 電 力 廠 是 好 是 壞 則 有 待 分 析 員 坐 下 來 好 好 算 一 算 。 電 費 上 升 ， 電 力 廠 收 入 增 加 ， 但 成 品 油 油 價 上 升 ， 電 力 廠 成 本 也 上 升 ， 收 入 與 成 本 同 時 上 升 ， 是 好 是 壞 ， 得 詳 細 計 算 。
下 午 收 市 後 ， 中 鋁 （ 2600 ） 自 己 發 出 盈 利 警 告 ， 說 雪 災 影 響 生 產 ， 電 費 上 升 也 會 增 加 成 本 ， 影 響 利 潤 ， 中 鋁 大 概 是 第 一 家 公 開 承 認 是 電 力 加 價 的 受 害 者 。
成 品 油 加 價 非 為 托 市
我 不 認 為 成 品 油 加 價 是 中 央 托 市 的 方 法 ， 成 品 油 不 加 價 則 中 石 化 與 中 石 油 皆 沒 有 誘 因 提 煉 石 油 ， 造 成 成 品 油 供 應 不 足 ， 黑 市 油 猖 獗 ， 油 站 則 排 長 龍 ， 浪 費 司 機 、 貨 車 的 大 量 時 間 ， 浪 費 時 間 就 等 於 浪 費 生 產 力 。 上 個 月 中 國 物 價 指 數 升 幅 緩 和 ， 也 許 ， 中 央 認 為 是 時 機 提 高 成 品 油 價 。
中 國 成 品 油 價 格 提 高 ， 上 星 期 四 晚 國 際 油 價 因 這 個 消 息 曾 大 幅 下 跌 4 美 元 ， 理 由 是 投 資 者 認 為 中 國 的 石 油 需 求 會 因 為 油 價 上 升 而 下 跌 。 上 星 期 五 早 上 我 在 電 視 現 場 節 目 中 力 辯 這 是 錯 誤 的 分 析 ， 如 果 美 國 的 成 品 油 價 格 上 升 會 導 致 美 國 石 油 需 求 下 降 ， 因 為 美 國 人 人 有 車 ， 窮 的 富 的 都 有 車 ， 油 價 上 升 ， 窮 人 開 車 就 會 減 少 。 但 是 ， 中 國 只 有 富 人 才 開 車 ， 油 價 上 升 ， 富 人 一 樣 開 車 ， 不 會 減 少 耗 油 量 。 貨 車 更 不 會 改 變 ， 油 價 上 漲 只 是 令 司 機 少 賺 錢 ， 也 不 會 減 少 開 車 運 貨 。 電 力 廠 為 了 發 電 ， 同 時 可 以 加 電 費 ， 也 不 會 少 用 油 。
上 星 期 五 晚 上 ， 紐 約 期 油 市 場 終 於 證 明 我 在 早 上 的 分 析 才 是 正 確 的 ， 當 晚 ， 油 價 回 升 2 美 元 。
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