‘A trader has a right to spread information,’ Mr David Meister, a former US federal prosecutor, told The Wall Street Journal yesterday.
‘What a trader does not have the right to do is knowingly spread false information with the purpose of trading to take advantage of that,’ he added.
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European central banks try to calm jittery nerves ahead of holiday weekend
By Carter Dougherty Published: March 20, 2008
FRANKFURT: European central banks injected piles of fresh cash into the financial system Thursday in an attempt to get nervous banks through the Easter holiday weekend.
On top of adding more liquidity, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, brought the top bankers in Britain into a closed-door session to discuss ways to restore "more orderly" market conditions.
The Bank of England described the meeting as routine, but it was only called last week - and came a day after the central bank took the unusual step of publicly slapping down rumors of a brewing disaster among British banks.
That came in the wake of the collapse of Bear Stearns in the United States, the latest victim of the credit crunch that began last summer.
But the crisis showed no sign of ending Thursday. The first major victim in Europe, IKB Deutsche Industriebank, on Thursday announced new write-offs linked to its investments in mortgage-backed securities in the United States, and said it would lose nearly €1 billion, or $1.6 billion, this year.
The European Central Bank surprised markets with a €15 billion infusion of extra loans that banks can use to firm up balance sheets over the holiday weekend. It is also a prelude to end-of-quarter accounting, a time when demand for cash typically rises.
The ECB also went through with a $15 billion cash auction, part of a previously scheduled currency swap agreement with the U.S. Federal Reserve.
For its part, the Bank of England lent £5 billion, or $10 billion.
Money markets, the short-term lending pool that banks tap for day-to-day operations, have turned especially tight in the last few weeks, with pressures rising to levels not seen since late last year.
The rate for three-month loans among banks rose to 4.67 percent in the euro area, reflecting the extreme caution that has gripped lenders around the world and led to a credit squeeze for the broader economy in the United States but not - so far - in Continental Europe.
King met with chief executives from the five largest banks in Britain - Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB, HSBC, Barclays and HBOS - to discuss whether the British central bank should do more to strengthen lenders' financial positions.
But in a statement issued afterward, the central bank gave few details about what was discussed.
"The Bank of England and the banks agreed to continue their close dialogue with the objective of restoring more orderly market conditions," it said.
British banks have long argued that central banks should accept more kinds of securities as collateral for lending, a step that would allow the banks to offload investments of questionable value. The Bank of England has resisted such steps, arguing that central banks, and by extension taxpayers, should not assume the risks that banks willingly incurred.
Taxpayers are on the hook already in Germany, where IKB, the tiny German lender whose near-collapse last summer heralded the beginning of the financial crisis in Europe, warned it would have to write off another €590 million thanks to rapidly deteriorating market conditions.
IKB's principal shareholder, the state-owned banking group KfW, would kick in €450 million from a previously arranged credit line to recapitalize the bank, which has needed repeated bailouts to stay afloat over the last six months. IKB also announced it would post an €800 million loss for the fiscal year ending March 31 and make little or no profit in the coming years.
IKB, based in Düsseldorf, speculated heavily in securities linked to the crisis-ridden U.S. mortgage market, to an extent that far outstripped the bank's capacity for surviving significant market disruptions.
In mid-February, with KfW's ability to support IKB without harming its other activities increasingly in doubt, the German government stepped in with a €1 billion payment to keep the bank afloat. A consortium of private banks, worried about the overall effect on the financial system, also kicked into what was by then the third bailout package.
IKB's troubles have had a political resonance in Germany, where criticism of the package hammered out last month was fierce. "There must be no further money from the federal budget," Steffen Kampeter, budget policy spokesman for the conservative Christian Democrats Chancellor Angela Merkel's party, told Reuters on Thursday.
Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, made waves in Germany earlier this week with his call for greater government action to wind down a financial crisis that had gathered momentum in recent weeks. "I no longer believe in the market's self-healing power," Ackermann said.
He was quickly rebuked by Axel Weber, the president of the German Bundesbank, who said that the burden was on banks to come clean about their bad investments.
The news Thursday sent IKB's stock, already pounded by the crisis, into enough of a free fall that trading was temporarily suspended. It closed at €4.75, down 19 cents, or 3.9 percent.
The continued turmoil has complicated efforts to wind down the crisis at IKB by unloading its battered securities portfolios and then selling the bank itself, which has a reasonably strong franchise in German corporate lending. KfW has said it wanted to sell its 43 percent, but interest has been minimal.
The announcement reflected the revaluation of assets in two portfolios that had already been written down once.
The first portfolio, €2 billion in extremely risky assets, was already written down by €630 million and would now lose another €450 million in value. The second, a higher-quality package with a face value of €2.8 billion, would be written down by €140 million, atop a prior revaluation that sliced €320 million off its worth.
CIT hurt by debt freeze
CIT Group shares and bonds plunged Thursday after the largest independent U.S. commercial finance company fell victim to the freeze in short-term debt markets, Bloomberg News reported from New York.
The company drew on its $7.3 billion of emergency credit lines after credit-rating downgrades left it unable to finance itself with commercial paper, which is debt due in nine months or less. The chief executive officer, Jeffrey Peek, said the "protracted disruption" in capital markets might also force the New York-based company to sell assets.
CIT's decision to tap financing shows the credit crunch that claimed Bear Stearns and Countrywide Financial is deepening as investors shrug off efforts by the Federal Reserve to encourage them to lend.
Slump Moves From Wall St. to Main St.
By PETER S. GOODMAN
Published: March 21, 2008
In Seattle, sales at a long-established hardware store, Pacific Supply, are suddenly dipping. In Oklahoma City, couples planning their weddings are demonstrating uncustomary thrift, forgoing Dungeness crab and special linens. And in many cities, the registers at department stores like Nordstrom on the higher end and J. C. Penney in the middle are ringing less often.
With Wall Street caught in a credit crisis that has captured headlines, the forces assailing the economy are now spreading beyond areas hit hardest by the boom-turned-bust in real estate like California, Florida and Nevada. Now, the downturn is seeping into new parts of the country, to communities that seemed insulated only months ago.
The broadening of the slowdown, the plunge in home prices and near-paralysis in the financial system are fueling worries that what most economists now see as an inevitable recession could end up being especially painful.
Indeed, some economists fear it will last longer and inflict more bite on workers and businesses than the last two recessions, which gripped the economy in 2001 and for eight months straddling 1990 and 1991. This time, these experts say, a recession in which economic activity falls over a sustained period and joblessness rises across the board could even persist into next year.
“It’s not hard to construct very dark scenarios, primarily because the financial system is in disarray, and it’s not clear how to get it all back together again,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.
To be sure, there are many places where talk of recession still seems as out of place as a diner trying to score a table at a trendy Los Angeles restaurant without reservations on a Saturday night. First-class cabins of airplanes are jammed. So are spas, cigar bars and children’s clothing boutiques selling upscale dresses.
Unemployment, meanwhile, still remains at a relatively low 4.8 percent.
But even after the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary efforts to prevent the collapse of Bear Stearns from spreading to other financial institutions, the danger still lurks that banks will grow even tighter with their funds and will starve the economy of capital.
“If lenders and debtors don’t trust each other, that causes a power outage,” said Michael T. Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners. “And that’s where we are now.” Until recently, Mr. Darda was among those still holding to the notion that the economy could generate enough jobs to keep the economy rolling. But the private sector has shed jobs for three consecutive months. Mr. Darda is now worried.
“We’ll be lucky to make it out of this without something that looks like a recession,” he said.
On Thursday, FedEx , whose global courier business tends to rise and fall with swings in the economy, reported that its earnings actually dropped in the United States and warned that in future months it expected to fall well short of its customary double-digit annualized profit gains.
“We just aren’t going to be able to do that,” Alan Graf, FedEx’s chief financial officer, said in a call with Wall Street analysts. “The crystal ball for everybody is very cloudy here.”
For now, there are still pockets of prosperity across the country. Farmers are enjoying record crop prices as the adoption of ethanol makes corn a way to fill gas tanks, and as rising incomes in China, India and elsewhere spell growing demand for meat. The weak dollar is helping exporters and retailers that cater to foreign tourists.
Eastern Mountain Sports, the outdoor clothing dealer, says sales increased by one-third this month compared with the year before at its store in SoHo. “A lot of that is Europeans coming over,” said Will Manzer, the company’s president.
With oil selling at approximately $100 a barrel, the Taste of Texas Steakhouse in Houston — a popular spot for events held by BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil — is reveling in days of plenty.
Even those areas suffering the downturn can bank on considerable help on the way, economists say, as the impact of lowered interest rates kicks in later this year, encouraging businesses to expand and hire. Tax rebate checks to be mailed out by the government this spring may lubricate spending as well.
Despite fears that the odds for a particularly severe recession have now increased, Mr. Zandi still subscribes to the consensus that the economy will shrink only modestly during the first half of 2008, then resume expanding as more money washes through the system. That would limit the damage to the type of relatively modest recession that hit the economy earlier this decade.
For the country as a whole, recent data shows that the economy is deteriorating at an accelerating rate. From September to January, average home prices fell 6 percent compared with a year earlier. Consumer confidence has been plummeting. The private sector shed 26,000 jobs in January and 101,000 in February, while those out of work have stayed jobless longer, according to the Labor Department.
Now, the broader discomfort is filtering into cities and towns that only recently seemed beyond reach.
Seattle’s real estate market has slowed, but prices have held relatively steady. Even so, sales at the Pacific Supply Company, a hardware store in the Capitol Hill neighborhood, have fallen by 5 to 10 percent in the last few months.
“There’s a general sense of caution,” Michael Go, the store’s general manager, said.
Ritz Sisters sells gift items like soaps and chocolates to shops and catalogs throughout the Pacific Northwest. In recent months, orders have fallen by one-fifth, said Tim Creveling, a co-owner of the business.
“People are just hunkering down,” he said.
In Oklahoma City, Aunt Pittypat’s Catering has lost one-fifth of its business in the last two months, as $25,000 weddings are scaled down to smaller affairs.
“People are just being a lot more conservative,” said Maggie Howell, a co-owner. “They want crab and seafood, but they’re settling for cheese displays.”
In Cleveland, Lincoln Electric, which makes welding gear, has also experienced a slowdown. “Our growth is relatively anemic in North America,” said Vincent Petrella, its chief financial officer.
The slowdown has proved severe enough to poke a hole in the idea that sales abroad can carry the economy even if they dip at home.
In North Carolina, Power Curbers, which makes equipment that turns concrete into curbs, has been sending more gear abroad. But domestic sales plummeted by one-fourth during the first two months of the year, Dyke Messinger, the company’s president, said. In mid-February, Power Curbers laid off 6 of the 80 workers at its factory near Charlotte.
Many economists forecast that overall consumer spending will slip 1 percent for the first three months of the year.
“That’s a wow,” said Robert Barbera, chief economist for the trading and research firm ITG. “Outright declines for real consumer purchases are unusual.”
What is shaping up as the second recession of the 2000s is the product of declines in home values, which play a far bigger role in most Americans’ personal finances than the stock market. Households have borrowed against the increased value of their property to buy cars, send their children to college and add home theater systems.
“This is the bedrock asset for the lion’s share of the population of the United States,” Mr. Barbera said. “It’s not like dot-com stocks, where I bought Webvan for 1,000 times the imaginary earnings, and now it’s worth nothing but I go and have a beer. You’re talking about the value of people’s houses.”
As economists try to assess the likely contours of the unfolding downturn, many see parallels in the recession of 1990 and 1991.
Then, as now, the dollar was weak, oil prices were high and trouble started with a sharp slide in housing prices, followed by major losses for mortgage lenders. The resulting savings and loan crisis spurred a buyout that cost taxpayers $240 billion in inflation-adjusted terms, and it brought a severe tightness of credit.
That recession lasted eight months, slightly less than the average for downturns going back to 1946, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. This one, though, could drag on longer, some economists say, because the underlying forces are more difficult to attack, even though Washington has been much more active, much earlier in lowering interest rates, sending out tax rebates and taking other measures to arrest an economic decline.
Back in the late 1980s, lending was concentrated in fewer hands. Once the government calculated the size of the problem in the saving and loan industry and assented to the bailout, confidence was restored and the wheels of finance turned anew.
This time, the size of the bad debts remains a mystery, with estimates reaching $400 billion. Markets fret that the next Bear Stearns could pop up anywhere.
The first signs of what became the mortgage crisis emerged back in August.
“Yet we’re still fighting it,” Mr. Darda said. “We’re still dealing with this paralysis.”
黄乙玲 － 爱你无条件
黄乙玲 - 爱到才知痛
黄乙玲 - 思慕的人
黄乙玲 - 成全我的爱
老鼠爱大米
我听见你的声音
有种特别的感觉
让我不断想
不敢再忘记你
我记得有一个人
永远留在我心中
哪怕只能够这样的想你
如果真的有一天
爱情理想会实现
我会加倍努力好好对你永远不改变
不管路有多么远
一定会让他实现
我会轻轻在你耳边对你说 对你说
我爱你 爱着你
就像老鼠爱大米
不管有多少风雨
我都会依然陪着你
我想你 想着你 不管有多么的苦
只要能让你开心
我什么都愿意 这样爱你
我听见你的声音
有种特别的感觉
让我不断想
不敢再忘记你
我记得有一个人
永远留在我心中
哪怕只能够这样的想你
如果真的有一天
爱情理想会实现
我会加倍努力好好对你永远不改变
不管路有多么远
一定会让他实现
我会轻轻在你耳边对你说 对你说
我爱你 爱着你
就像老鼠爱大米
不管有多少风雨
我都会依然陪着你
我想你 想着你
不管有多么的苦
只要能让你开心
我什么都愿意 这样爱你
我爱你 爱着你
就像老鼠爱大米
不管有多少风雨
我都会依然陪着你
我想你 想着你 不管有多么的苦
只要能让你开心
我什么都愿意 这样爱你
劉若英 - 我等你
一支小雨伞
心事谁人知
卓依婷 - 车站
拢是为着你啦 - 李嘉
Tibet was, is and always will be a part of China
Riot in Tibet: True face of Western media
古典吉他 - 望春風
黄乙玲 - 等无人
许桂荧 - 行船歌
三聲無奈
古典吉他 - 秋怨
何静 - 别离雨梦
那一天你终于要离去
天空正漂着雨
让雨丝滑落飘零在眼底
让我再也看不清你
曾经为你在深夜淋雨
让雨水掩饰哭泣
让那些布满裂痕的凄厉
让过往从此不再清晰
别哭泣在这个太多城市的雨季
让我们就走到这里
有一份美好的记忆足以
别哭泣 记住这天空相聚的别离
感谢你在我的故事里
留下最动人的一滴
曾经为你在深夜淋雨
让雨水掩饰哭泣
让那些布满裂痕的凄厉
让过往从此不再清晰
别哭泣在这个太多城市的雨季
让我们就走到这里
有一份美好的记忆足以
别哭泣 记住这天空相聚的别离
感谢你在我的故事里
留下最动人的一滴
别离 记忆中一场古老的雨
遇见别离中淹没永远的记忆
王建傑 - 袂看破
Queen - We Are The Champions
I’ve paid my dues
Time after time
I’ve done my sentence
But committed no crime
And bad mistakes
I’ve made a few
I’ve had my share of sand
Kicked in my face
But I’ve come through
And we mean to go on and on and on and on
We are the champions - my friends
And we’ll keep on fighting
Till the end
We are the champions
We are the champions
No time for losers
''Cause we are the champions of the world''
I’ve taken my bows
And my curtain calls
You brought me fame and fortune
And everything that goes with it
I thank you all
But it’s been no bed of roses
No pleasure cruise
I consider it a challenge before
The whole human race
And I ain’t gonna lose
And we mean to go on and on and on and on
We are the champions - my friends
And we’ll keep on fighting
Till the end
We are the champions
We are the champions
No time for losers
''Cause we are the champions of the world''
We are the champions - my friends
And we’ll keep on fighting
Till the end
We are the champions
We are the champions
No time for losers
''Cause we are the champions''
Central banks float rescue ideas
By Chris Giles and Krishna Guha in London
Published: March 21 2008 22:02 | Last updated: March 23 2008 19:44
Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are actively engaged in discussions about the feasibility of mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities as a possible solution to the credit crisis.
Such a move would involve the use of public funds to shore up the market in a key financial instrument and restore confidence by ending the current vicious circle of forced sales, falling prices and weakening balance sheets.
The conversations, part of a broader exchange as to possible future steps in battling financial turmoil, are at an early stage. However, the fact that such a move is being discussed at all indicates the depth of concern that exists over the health of the banking system.
It shows how far the policy debate has shifted in recent weeks as the crisis has spread to prime mortgage assets in the US and engulfed Bear Stearns, the investment bank.
The Bank of England appears most enthusiastic to explore the idea. The Federal Reserve is open in principle to the possibility that intervention in the MBS market might be justified in certain scenarios, but only as a last resort. The European Central Bank appears least enthusiastic.
Any move to buy mortgage-backed securities would require government involvement because taxpayers would be assuming credit risk. There is no indication as yet that the US administration would favour such moves. In the eurozone it would require agreement from 15 separate governments.
One argument among policymakers and bankers has been that new international rules have exacerbated the credit squeeze by requiring assets to be valued at their current record lows rather than at face value.
But a strongly held view at one European central bank is that it is not “mark-to-market” accounting that is to blame for severe weaknesses in banks’ balance sheets but that prices of MBS securities have fallen to levels that imply unrealistically high rates of default.
If public authorities were to buy and hold sufficient mortgage-backed securities – rather than simply lend against them as they have until now – at prices well below face value but above current prices, they would set a floor in the MBS market.
The Fed does not believe that the point has yet been reached when such drastic action is necessary and considers the discussions it has had with its counterparts to represent “blue-sky thinking” rather than the formulation of a definitive policy proposal.
Fed officials are monitoring the impact of the latest barrage of Fed liquidity moves and interest rate cuts. They also believe the US has not exhausted all the options short of wholesale public intervention and further intermediate steps are available to them.
These could include still more aggressive use of the Fed’s own balance sheet to boost liquidity in the markets.
Analysts say the US government also has plenty of scope to boost support for the markets indirectly through the Federal Housing Administration or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The UK lacks these institutions, which could be one reason why the Bank of England is keenest to explore outright intervention. The UK government has already become heavily involved in buying mortgages since September with the recent nationalisation of Northern Rock, the mortgage lender.
Michael Coogan, the director-general of the UK’s Council of Mortgage Lenders, said this week: “Demand for mortgages remains strong but cannot be fully met from existing funding sources.” He predicted higher prices and reduced lending.
It is not just central banks that think the MBS market prices are too low and imply a unrealistic level of mortgage default. Some US states’ pension funds are investing small sums in the mortgage market.
Robert Gentzel, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System, told the AP news agency: “Some of the securities that have dropped in value were really very solid securities.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Central banks float rescue ideas
By Chris Giles and Krishna Guha in London
Published: March 21 2008 22:02 | Last updated: March 23 2008 19:44
Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are actively engaged in discussions about the feasibility of mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities as a possible solution to the credit crisis.
Such a move would involve the use of public funds to shore up the market in a key financial instrument and restore confidence by ending the current vicious circle of forced sales, falling prices and weakening balance sheets.
The conversations, part of a broader exchange as to possible future steps in battling financial turmoil, are at an early stage. However, the fact that such a move is being discussed at all indicates the depth of concern that exists over the health of the banking system.
It shows how far the policy debate has shifted in recent weeks as the crisis has spread to prime mortgage assets in the US and engulfed Bear Stearns, the investment bank.
The Bank of England appears most enthusiastic to explore the idea. The Federal Reserve is open in principle to the possibility that intervention in the MBS market might be justified in certain scenarios, but only as a last resort. The European Central Bank appears least enthusiastic.
Any move to buy mortgage-backed securities would require government involvement because taxpayers would be assuming credit risk. There is no indication as yet that the US administration would favour such moves. In the eurozone it would require agreement from 15 separate governments.
One argument among policymakers and bankers has been that new international rules have exacerbated the credit squeeze by requiring assets to be valued at their current record lows rather than at face value.
But a strongly held view at one European central bank is that it is not “mark-to-market” accounting that is to blame for severe weaknesses in banks’ balance sheets but that prices of MBS securities have fallen to levels that imply unrealistically high rates of default.
If public authorities were to buy and hold sufficient mortgage-backed securities – rather than simply lend against them as they have until now – at prices well below face value but above current prices, they would set a floor in the MBS market.
The Fed does not believe that the point has yet been reached when such drastic action is necessary and considers the discussions it has had with its counterparts to represent “blue-sky thinking” rather than the formulation of a definitive policy proposal.
Fed officials are monitoring the impact of the latest barrage of Fed liquidity moves and interest rate cuts. They also believe the US has not exhausted all the options short of wholesale public intervention and further intermediate steps are available to them.
These could include still more aggressive use of the Fed’s own balance sheet to boost liquidity in the markets.
Analysts say the US government also has plenty of scope to boost support for the markets indirectly through the Federal Housing Administration or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The UK lacks these institutions, which could be one reason why the Bank of England is keenest to explore outright intervention. The UK government has already become heavily involved in buying mortgages since September with the recent nationalisation of Northern Rock, the mortgage lender.
Michael Coogan, the director-general of the UK’s Council of Mortgage Lenders, said this week: “Demand for mortgages remains strong but cannot be fully met from existing funding sources.” He predicted higher prices and reduced lending.
It is not just central banks that think the MBS market prices are too low and imply a unrealistic level of mortgage default. Some US states’ pension funds are investing small sums in the mortgage market.
Robert Gentzel, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System, told the AP news agency: “Some of the securities that have dropped in value were really very solid securities.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs forecasts global credit losses stemming from the current market turmoil will reach $1.2 trillion, with Wall Street accounting for nearly 40 percent of the losses.
U.S. leveraged institutions, which include banks, brokers-dealers, hedge funds and government-sponsored enterprises, will suffer roughly $460 billion in credit losses after loan loss provisions, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note released late on Monday.
Losses from this group of players are crucial because they have led to a dramatic pullback in credit availability as they have pared lending to shore up their capital and preserve their capital requirements, they said.
Goldman estimated $120 billion in write-offs have been reported by these leveraged institutions since the credit crunch began last summer.
"U.S. leveraged institutions have written off less than half of the losses associated with the bursting of the credit bubble," they said. "There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is still rather dim."
Of the cumulative losses expected by these leveraged players, bad residential home loans will represent about half, while poor-performing commercial mortgages will represent 15 percent to 20 percent.
The rest of the losses will come from credit card loans, car loans, commercial and industrial lending and non-financial corporate bonds, Goldman economists said.
Facing more credit losses, leveraged institutions have raised about $100 billion in new capital from domestic and foreign investors and reduced dividend payouts. This amount is more than three-quarters of the write-offs to date, the report said.
GuanYu's advice, "In the current volatile market, it's safer to do intra-day trading; do not hold heavy positions, overnight."
I got to know GuanYu in last Oct'07 via Shareinvestor.com due to an unplesant incident pertaining to one of my postings posted in Chinese Language. Thereafter, I became interested to read his postings in SI forum, including the SI archive. I happened to read all his old postings posted in the SMT thread since year 2002 by chance and realised that he had a consistent habit of sharing invaluable market information freely among his cyber friends in SI forum. I also noticed that he used to post realtime charts, up-to-date newsfeed and latest updated reports written by foreign stock analysts (company reviews/recommendations), which were normally not easily available to retail investors then.
I would never forget that in mid-Nov'07; he specifically coached me via PM on the subject of portfolio re-balance on 2 stocks; Yongnam Vs GZ. Who else in the world would offer to sincerely and patiently teach a stranger individually on the Internet, FOC?
His patience, unconditional and impartial advice have been good guidance to me. He has helped me tremendously to excel in my ability to gauge stock price fluctuations (mostly news-driven) agst trading volumes more accurately and sharply than before, thru his charts (TA). He taught me how to fish; interms of foresight and a better understanding of the stock market's gameplay, it's really beneficial to me.
Before his forced break on Tuesday 25 Mar'08, he still continued his old habit (old habit dies hard) to comment and share his personal views and thoughts on global market trends and on individual stock with his friends who visited his blog.
I do not know or have met GuanYu in person but he is one of my best and great mentors on the Internet.
I feel very sad that God or heaven upstairs has not been kind to him, lately.
I wish and hope that Lady Luck will come to his rescue soon enough and kiss him more often.
Tea chat losing its shine
By SEAH CHIANG NEE
Saturday April 5, 2008
Centrally planned leadership succession may not appeal to Singaporeans with real drive, abilities and ambition.
MANY years ago, at a time when Singapore was preparing for general elections, I ran into an old friend who appeared anxious to talk to me.
I was then an editor of a newspaper. “I need to chat urgently,” he said, excitement written all over him.
A thought struck me and I asked: “Have you been invited for tea?” Surprised, he said yes.
“Invited for tea,” is Singapore political jargon meaning that the person – in this case a corporate chief executive officer – is being headhunted by the PAP to stand as a candidate.
My hunch was right and he was duly elected and became a Cabinet minister.
The tea interview remains the PAP’s unique way of recruiting political leaders for Singapore, starting work as a Member of Parliament and ending up, it is hoped, in the Cabinet
The chosen ones are not experienced politicians rising from party ranks, but straight from company boardrooms or the professions, the armed forces or the civil service.
Many are scholars and novices (some call them political virgins) who don’t have to campaign hard for votes since the group polling system makes it difficult for the weakened Opposition to beat them.
In fact, many PAP candidates win on walkovers – some of them repeatedly – and move into Parliament without a single vote having been counted.
In this manner, the mandate for Singaporeans’ representatives frequently comes from the party rather than from voters.
In the “brains” department these people will not be found lacking, but few have the political attributes to bond – or empathise - with ordinary people, especially the poor.
The system, however, does work well for much of Singapore’s 43 years of independence – if one measures it by the sparkling economic progress and clockwork efficiency.
In the 21st Century, however, this system of headhunting an exalted leader like any common corporate figure – with a similar offer of high wages and perks – may be losing some of its shine for some candidates and voters.
Doubts of its effectiveness is growing. For one thing, no one will ever know the real talents that pass by, missed by the search; or those who find the system unacceptable.
This form of centrally planned leadership succession may not appeal to people with real drive, abilities and ambition.
Last week, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong admitted difficulties in finding “a fourth generation” leadership – especially a successor for himself.
He expanded his 18-man Cabinet by two, adding new finds Law Minister K. Shanmugam and Acting Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong.
But the real shocker was his virtual rejection of all in the present batch of ministers as possible PM material, unless he “is run over by a bus”.
The main points he made in an interview with two local newspapers last week were:
> He will be PM until he can “find and groom” a successor who should be ready to become PM in 13 years’ time, in 2021 before he is 69.
> Since he is only 56, Lee says he will look for people who are now in the 30s and early 40s. This has all but ruled out all his subordinate ministers – disappointing those who aspire for the top post.
By keeping all the older ministers and taking in two new ones, Lee appears to be trying to strengthen his hands – only a month after Malaysia’s election shock.
It is not known if the two events are related. It will not be surprising if Lee, jolted by Malaysia’s ruling front’s election blow, will quickly strengthen his grip on power.
PM Lee may be ensuring absolute loyalty among his ministers, especially in view of his father’s advancing age. Without Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, his leadership could be vulnerable to challenge.
Lee is also trying to raise his public image and show he is in total charge and will remain in charge for a long time.
The PM, who was once treated and cured of cancer, has dispelled the notion of his tenure’s “temporariness”, possibly no more than 8-10 years before he gives up.
Lee, who became PM in 2004, has surprisingly been quiet, non-active and rather overshadowed by his more assertive, high profile father, who is 84.
There have been long periods when he has not attended any public function or made a speech.
A recent example was the escape from detention of the Jemaah Islamiah leader Mas Selamat Kastari, when the PM kept quiet as though it were a non-event.
It was only after his father made a comment, condemning the authorities for “complacency”, that the PM followed suit, using the same word. It’s not good for his image.
Cynics here, however, are not impressed with the professed difficulties in finding good leaders.
“It is propaganda used to impress people that only the PAP is qualified to lead. Actually, they are just bureaucrats who make mistakes like leaders elsewhere,” one opposition supporter said.
Many Singaporeans believe that the calibre of the present crop of technocrats is not comparable to that of the founding leaders, who were thrown up by the throes of history.
It was the unselfish leaders (salaries were then very low) like Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee, S. Rajaratnam, etc, who achieved greatness for Singapore in its first 25 years.
Where will the next PM come from? He could be headhunted from outside the party – or even from Singaporeans abroad – and groomed for a decade.
Of course, an election can change all this. Lee Kuan Yew has warned his people not to expect victory all the time.
Posted April 5, 2008
手中情
Posted April 6, 2008
Jade Tech now a designated stock after bid aborted
Investors prohibited from selling unless they show they hold sufficient quantities
By CHEW XIANG
07 Apr 2008
SGX yesterday declared Catalist-listed Jade Technologies a designated security, prohibiting any selling of the shares unless the seller can show he holds sufficient quantities.
SGX said the condition was not applicable to shares that have been bought on contra, adding the designation was to ensure 'orderly trading' in the market.
Investors are fearing a heavy selldown after Jade's group president Anthony Soh pulled the plug on his takeover bid for the company on Saturday, admitting that with two-thirds of his shares in Jade pledged to a failed Australian broker, he was no longer able to guarantee sufficient funds were available to facilitate the offer.
Dr Soh yesterday confirmed in an interview with BT that the offer is under internal investigation by the Securities Industry Council. The role of OCBC Bank, which quit as financial adviser to the offeror on April 1, when the storm broke, may also be reviewed.
SGX said shareholders who had accepted the offer from Dr Soh will have their shares transferred back to their accounts today when trading resumes. Trading has been halted since Wednesday.
Early last month, Dr Soh made a 22.5 cents a share conditional offer for Jade, stating he owned about 46.5 per cent of the company. Last week, it emerged he had pledged two-thirds of his stake, or about 30.5 per cent of Jade's share capital, to Australian broker Opes Prime as security for margin loans.
But under the agreement, ownership of the shares may already have passed to Opes and when it failed, on to its secured creditors. Dr Soh and other clients of Opes claim they believed their shares had only been pledged and that they retained beneficial interest but Opes is now known to have lent those shares to banks as security for financing.
With a much smaller shareholding than thought, Dr Soh said he could not guarantee he had the extra $67 million to satisfy full acceptances of the offer.
Dr Soh told BT that Opes had operated what seemed a very attractive lending regime, providing 60 per cent credit on the value of even small cap stocks. He first pledged about 140 million Jade shares last October and had drawn down the full amount of about $25 million in loans.
When the price of Jade shares tanked in late January, Dr Soh pledged about 150 million more shares to make up the shortfall but did not borrow any more money. 'It was a very fluid arrangement but it came at a very heavy price.'
He said he suspected Opes had been lending shares to third parties after finding out in February that about 40 million of the 295.5 million shares pledged had been moved to another account. Dr Soh visited Melbourne three times in late February and early March to confront Opes's chief executive officer Laurie Emini. 'Each time he said in front of his staff that I was the beneficiary.'
Dr Soh claimed he knew of 'five to 10 other clients of Opes' in Singapore who like him had pledged shares in locally listed companies to Opes to secure financing. He is now taking part in a class action to get compensation. 'There is probably no doubt that I've lost the shares.' Dr Soh put his paper losses at about $40 million.
He said that the fundamentals of Jade have not been affected, adding he was in discussions with a Chinese buyer and a big US investment bank to come in as partners in a coal mining project in Indonesia.
A recent independent report included in the now withdrawn offer for Jade had put the value of the coal concession at about $1 billion.
Posted April 7, 2008
Dr Soh claimed, "fundamentals of Jade have not been affected?" I said, "lang sai" also can eat! In Hokkien: "lang" = human, "sai" = faeces
Ray Charles - I Got a Woman
A young man curiously asks: “How does one finds out if a woman is married? I've been going out with this woman a few times and am keen to know if she is married...are there any telltale signs? I know for one is to look at the ring on her finger...which finger?”
An old uncle amusingly replies: “My late mom used to korek (dig) the hen’s backside to see if it had laid eggs or not and bargained with the chicken seller over this. For a married woman; it would be whether the nipple aurora is very huge & dark (sign of suckings from babies or men), next check whether got stretch marks on the belly (faint or apparent), and then do like what my late mom did...spread the legs to check the hole...too loose, many babies had gone down that way or many 'dinosaurs' had gone up to the cave of a thousand delights, and lastly, see if the outer lips have dark discoloration due to hormonal changes after childbirth(s)...like looking at the outer skin of a mango to see if it is old. Other than that, anything else external is hard to tell.”
Posted April 8, 2008
Hmmm...the Singapore bourse risks turning into a Mickey Mouse market => MMM?
Are takeover safeguards enough for shareholders?
Goh Eng Yeow
09 Apr 2008
ANGRY shareholders of Jade Technologies are, not surprisingly, demanding answers over the aborted takeover of the firm, which has left them holding badly devalued shares.
Consequently, when the dust settles on this bruising saga, the repercussions may well reverberate far beyond Jade and its bitter shareholders.
The events that led to a 70 per cent crash in Jade's share price on Monday, after the takeover offer was withdrawn, have raised important questions on the effectiveness of the many safeguards designed to protect the interests of retail investors in Singapore.
The Singapore Exchange is quick to stress that under a disclosure-based regime, companies are obliged to announce material information in a continuous and timely manner. The Jade saga, however, has left some wondering if this can be taken at face value.
To recap briefly: In February, Jade's major shareholder, Dr Anthony Soh, made an offer of 22.5 cents apiece for the 54 per cent or so of the company's stock that he did not already own.
That, by itself, was nothing unusual, given the regularity with which takeovers had been taking place.
Many an investor spotting value in a listed firm in a falling market will pounce, provided his financial adviser confirms that he has the resources to mount a takeover.
This sets into motion a process governed by the Takeover Code, which has an important objective of protecting minority shareholders' interests.
What is most unusual in the Jade saga, however, was the dramatic aborting of the takeover offer, which sparked Monday's share price crash after a three-day trading halt.
The problem stemmed from Dr Soh's move last year to pledge about two-thirds of his Jade holdings to Australian brokerage Opes Prime in return for a $25 million loan.
Last week, Opes collapsed and is now in receivership. The Jade shares are believed to have gone to Opes creditor Merrill Lynch and may have been sold.
One reader, who followed the Jade saga closely, observed that Dr Soh was confusing investors with his claim that the collapse of Opes was the cause of his problems.
He called for urgent clarification of whether Dr Soh had the financial means in the first place to complete the $117 million takeover.
The reader said: 'It was reported that Dr Soh first pledged 140 million shares at 30 cents apiece to borrow $25 million last October. Then when the shares fell in January, he had to meet margin calls by pledging another 150 million shares. Is this a sign that he is strapped for cash even before he mounted the takeover?'
That then turned the spotlight on what due diligence had been conducted by OCBC Bank which, as the financial adviser, had confirmed in February that 'sufficient financial resources were available to Dr Soh to satisfy full acceptances of the offer'.
Many investors might not have been familiar with Dr Soh and his financial standing, but they would have derived considerable solace from OCBC's statement, said one trader.
So perhaps, OCBC should clarify why it suddenly resigned as the financial adviser on April 1 - the day Jade announced that it was halting the trading of its shares because of discrepancies over Dr Soh's shareholdings.
The trader noted: 'Outgoing auditors of a listed firm now have to confirm that they are not aware why new auditors shouldn't accept the appointment, to make sure they do not dodge their watchdog role by quietly resigning before any signs of trouble emerge.'
In the same way, other professionals should be held to the same high levels of disclosure to protect the interests of the ivesting public.
Market experts also noted that Jade was also likely to be the first instance of a takeover being aborted midway.
Shareholders who accepted the offer will have the shares transferred back to their stock accounts.
But that is little consolation given that they are now worth so little. Many now wonder what kind of redress these shareholders can seek.
Having accepted the offer, they were unable to sell the shares when they could fetch as much as 22 cents apiece on the open market.
And how about investors who picked up the shares just before trading was halted last week? For instance, fund manager Omni Partners had been a big buyer. What legal recourse does it have?
In launching a probe into the circumstances leading to the aborted Jade offer, the Securities Industry Council, which enforces the Takeover Code, has its work cut out.
Foremost on its agenda should be how the existing safeguards should be buttressed to prevent another Jade from occurring. Otherwise, the Singapore bourse risks turning into a Mickey Mouse market.
Posted April 9, 2008
心语传真情，剎那成永恒...
再烦，你要记得微笑；
再急，你要温柔语气；
再苦，你要忍耐坚持；
再累，你要默默承受；
再忙，你要照顾自己；
再难，你要感受磨炼；
开心，度过你每一天！
Posted Wed, April 9, 2008
IMF may sell 400 tons of gold
April 7, 2008
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved a broad financial overhaul plan that could lead to the eventual sale of a little over 400 tons of its substantial gold supplies.
The sale cannot occur without congressional approval as well as legislative action in many of the 184 other nations that are members of the Washington-based lending institution.
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn welcomed the board's decision Monday to propose a new framework for the fund, designed to close a projected $400 million budget deficit over the next few years.
It is "a landmark agreement that will put the institution on a solid financial footing and modernize the IMF's structure and operations," he said in a statement.
The budget proposal includes sharp spending cuts of $100 million over the next three years that will include up to 100 staff dismissals.
"We have made difficult but necessary choices to close the projected income shortfall and put the fund's finances on a sustainable basis, but in the end it will make the fund more focused, efficient and cost-effective in serving our members," said Strauss-Kahn, a former French finance minister.
The IMF said the board agreed to revamp the fund's income model from one that primarily relies on lending to one that generates money from various sources.
During the 1990s, the IMF lent billions to countries in Asia and Latin America that were facing financial crises and financed its operations on interest from those loans. In recent years, IMF lending has dried up as many of those countries have built up reserves to prevent them from having to borrow again from the IMF, which often puts severe restrictions and conditions on its loans. The declining interest payments led to the IMF's budget gap.
Actual sale of the gold cannot start immediately because the U.S. member on the IMF board cannot vote for it until Congress approves. Congress has made approval conditional on a broad range of operational changes that Strauss-Khan has pledged to carry out to preserve the relevancy of the 64-year-old organization, whose mission is to promote global financial stability.
Under the plan, the IMF would sell the 403 tons, or nearly 13 million ounces, of gold for about $11 billion over several years. The IMF would keep $4.4 billion on its books, and the remaining $6.6 billion would go into an investment account.
The IMF, which has sold gold before, said it would coordinate the sales with central banks in an effort to prevent market disruptions.
"Gold sales would be conducted in a transparent manner with strong safeguards to ensure that they do not add to official sales and avoid any risk of market disruption," the IMF said in a statement.
The Bush administration said in February it could support selling a limited amount of IMF gold as away to ensure the agency's long-term financial stability, but Treasury officials realized this would be a hard sell. In 1999 Congress rejected a previous proposal to sell IMF gold, and the current majority leader of the Senate, Democrat Harry Reid, comes from the gold-mining state of Nevada.
Strauss-Khan, who took over last November as head of the IMF, said the financial overhaul was another major step in the organization's reform process. It followed a decision last month to slightly increase the voting power of rapidly developing countries such as China, India and Brazil, who are playing a growing role in the world economy. Since its founding, the United States and European nations have dominated IMF decision-making.
Besides using the gold sales to produce an income stream, the fund's narrow investment authority will be broadened.
Posted Wed, April 9, 2008
Fed Weighs Its Options in Easing Crunch
By Greg Ip
April 9, 2008
WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve is considering contingency plans for expanding its lending power in the event its recent steps to unfreeze credit markets fail.
Among the options: Having the Treasury borrow more money than it needs to fund the government and leave the proceeds on deposit at the Fed; issuing debt under the Fed's name rather than the Treasury's; and asking Congress for immediate authority for the Fed to pay interest on commercial-bank reserves instead of waiting until a previously enacted law permits it in 2011.
No moves are imminent because the Fed still has plenty of balance sheet room for additional lending now. The internal discussions are part of a continuing effort at the Fed, similar to what is under way at foreign central banks, to determine its options if the credit crunch becomes even more severe. Fed officials believe the availability of such options largely eliminates the risk of exhausting its stockpile of Treasury bonds and thus losing its ability to backstop the financial system, as some on Wall Street fear.
British and Swiss central banks also are contemplating contingency plans. For now, the European Central Bank is reluctant to consider options that require substantial modifications of its standard tools.
The Fed, like any central bank, could print unlimited amounts of money, but that would push short-term interest rates lower than it believes would be wise. The contingency planning seeks ways to relieve strains in credit markets and restore liquidity without pushing down rates.
The Fed is reluctant to heed calls from some Wall Street participants and foreign officials for the Fed to directly purchase mortgage-backed securities to help a market that still is not functioning normally.
Before the credit crunch began in August, the Fed had $790 billion in Treasury securities on its balance sheet, about 87% of its total assets. Since then, it has sold or lent about $300 billion. In their place, the Fed has made loans to banks and securities firms to assist them in financing holdings of mortgage-backed and other securities. Some on Wall Street say the potential for further declines in Fed treasury holdings could leave it out of ammunition.
The Fed holds assets to manage the nation's money supply and influence the federal-funds rate, which banks charge each other on overnight loans. When the Fed buys Treasurys or makes loans directly to banks, it supplies financial institutions with cash; in effect, it prints money. The cash ends up as currency in circulation or in banks' reserve accounts at the Fed.
Since reserves earn no interest, banks lend cash that exceeds their required minimum. That puts downward pressure on the federal funds rate, currently targeted by the Fed at 2.25%. The Fed could purchase securities and make loans almost without limit, expanding its balance sheet. That would cause excess reserves to skyrocket and the federal funds rate to fall to zero. The Fed would contemplate such "quantitative easing" only in dire circumstances. The Bank of Japan took this step this decade after years of economic stagnation.
Weighing the Possibilities
So the Fed is seeking ways to expand its balance sheet without causing the federal funds rate to drop. The likeliest option, one the Fed and Treasury have discussed, is for the Treasury to issue more debt than it needs to fund government operations. The extra cash would be left on deposit at the Fed, where it would be separate from bank reserves on deposit and thus would have no impact on interest rates. The Fed would use the cash to purchase an offsetting amount of Treasurys in the open market; for legal reasons, it generally cannot buy them directly from Treasury.
Treasury's principal constraint is the statutory limit debt. Treasury debt was $453 billion below the limit Monday. In the past, Congress always has responded to administration requests to raise the limit, sometimes only after political theatrics.
Fed officials also are investigating the feasibility of the Fed issuing its own debt and using the proceeds to purchase other assets or make loans. It has never done so; the legality is unclear. Some foreign central banks, such as the Bank of Japan, do so.
Another possibility is seeking congressional approval to pay interest on banks' reserves immediately instead of waiting until a 2006 law permits that in 2011. If the Fed paid, say, 2% interest on reserves, banks would have no incentive to lend out excess reserves once the federal funds rate fell to that level.
Congress put off the effective date because paying interest on reserves reduces the Fed profits that are turned over to the Treasury each year, widening the budget deficit. Although preliminary explorations suggest Congress would be open to accelerating the date, the Fed is leery of depending on action by Congress.
The Fed is inclined to use any additional maneuvering room to lend through its existing and recently expanded avenues. Officials are reluctant to buy mortgage-backed securities directly. They worry that such purchases would hurt the market for MBS that the Fed is not permitted to buy: those backed by jumbo and subprime and alt-A mortgages, which are under the greatest strain.
Moreover, the Fed is not operationally equipped to hold MBS and would probably have to outsource their management. Such holdings wouldn't help avert foreclosures much, since the Fed would have little control over the mortgages that comprise MBS.
Posted Thursday, April 10, 2008
Hmmm...OCBC made a report to CAD on the Jade saga...
Merrill Lynch sale raises more questions on Jade saga
Goh Eng Yeow
10 Apr 2008
INVESTORS cannot be faulted for getting angrier by the day over the unfolding Jade Technologies drama, which seems to call into question the efficacy of takeover safeguards designed to protect their interests.
Events in the sorry saga, as these have been unfolding since last week, have left many investors angry, confused - and feeling duped.
Yesterday, events took another unexpected turn after it was disclosed that investment bank Merrill Lynch sold 95.3 million Jade shares on the open market on Tuesday last week, just a day before Jade halted trading of its shares.
Merrill, as a first-in-line creditor, seized the Jade shares from failed Australian brokerage Opes Prime when it collapsed.
This was after Jade's major shareholder, Dr Anthony Soh, pledged 256.84 million Jade shares to Opes as collateral for a $25 million loan in October last year.
Just as Merrill was dumping the Jade shares for 22 cents apiece, hedge funds and big-time traders were happily picking them up - naively, as it turned out.
Their reasoning was that they could make a small, risk-free arbitrage profit, since Dr Soh had made what seemed like an iron-clad takeover offer, which was then about to close in six days' time.
Instead, this has become a major nightmare following the withdrawal of the offer and the resulting collapse in Jade's share price.
Everyone had taken at face value a disclosure in the offer document that Dr Soh's firm, Asia Pacific Links, had direct ownership of 45.97 per cent of Jade.
That was until he dropped the bombshell that he had pledged two-thirds of these shares to Opes under a securities lending agreement, and that the ownership of these shares had passed to Opes' creditors after the brokerage's collapse.
One incredulous reader of The Straits Times called up to inquire why Merrill took nearly two weeks to disclose the fact that it had seized the 256.84 million Jade shares pledged by Dr Soh.
'The Companies Act requires a major shareholder to notify a company any change in his shareholdings within two business days,' he added.
Since Merrill received the shares on March 27, investors should have been notified of the changes by March 31 at the latest.
In any event, investors learnt only yesterday.
Timely information would have helped prevent investors from drowning in Jade shares, picking them up in the hope of making a small profit, when Merrill was already offloading them.
One trader noted that Merrill recovered about $21 million from selling the Jade shares.
'By coincidence, this is almost equivalent to the $25 million loan which Dr Soh borrowed last October from Opes, using his Jade shares as collateral,' he added.
This raised questions as to when Dr Soh learnt that his shares had been seized by Opes' creditors. Surely, the collapse of Opes could not have escaped his notice.
The sale of Jade shares by Merrill on Tuesday last week coincided with two announcements made by the company close to midnight that day giving details of a letter from Dr Soh about his dealings with Opes and a request to halt trading of its shares.
One trader said: 'Many are wondering why Dr Soh only became aware of the change of ownership of shares on April 1, even though Merrill had seized them on March 27.'
Surely, even if Dr Soh did not know who had seized his shares, he could at least have warned Jade to halt trading of its shares sooner than April 1, he argued.
Key events at Jade
March 27: Merrill Lynch, a secured creditor of failed Australian broker Opes Prime, seizes 256.84 million Jade Technologies shares pledged to Opes by Dr Anthony Soh.
March 31: Hedge fund Omni Partners buys 49.02 million Jade shares at 22 cents apiece on a day when 54.5 million Jade shares changed hands
April 1: Merrill sells 95.3 million of its 161.55 million Jade shares at 22 cents apiece
11.56pm: Jade requests trading halt
11.59pm: Jade releases letter from Dr Soh, in which he discloses that the 295.45 million shares pledged to Opes has changed hands
April 2: Trading in Jade halted
9.25pm: Letter from Dr Soh states that OCBC Bank resigned as the offeror's financial adviser on April 1. He also discloses he may not have the resources to meet full acceptance of the buyout
April 5, 12.02am: Jade announces that the Securities Industry Council has agreed to the withdrawal of Dr Soh's takeover offer
4.20pm: Jade announces resumption of trading on April 7
Monday: Jade shares plunge 70.5 per cent to six cents
Wednesday: Merrill's stake in Jade finally revealed.
*****************************************
Six more Jade investors report loss of up to $5m
THE aborted takeover of Jade Technologies has claimed yet more victims - this time six angry investors who ended up $5 million in the red after what looked like a sure thing.
They are demanding answers from the Securities Industry Council (SIC), which allowed the takeover to be cancelled last weekend, leaving the six holding shares that were facing a price meltdown.
Like the Omni Partners hedge fund, they snapped up millions of Jade shares at 22 cents apiece recently, fully expecting to sell them to Dr Anthony Soh, who made a buyout offer for 22.5 cents.
Dr Soh, a Jade director, already held 45.97 per cent of the firm and needed only a small number of acceptances to get over the 50 per cent line.
The six investors held more than 30 million shares, or 3 per cent. They gambled that if they sold their shares to Dr Soh, he would almost be at 50 per cent, needing only a few more acceptances.
Once at 50 per cent, Dr Soh would have to pay all those who accepted the offer. If he failed to get enough acceptances to cross 50 per cent by the Monday deadline, he would have to return the shares.
It seemed to the six investors that they had a cast-iron buyer for their 30 million shares, with a profit of half a cent on each one. That would mean a gain of $150,000 - and a return of about 2.2 per cent, in the space of just a few weeks, far higher than the interest from a fixed deposit.
A sure thing, however, became a lost cause on Tuesday last week when Dr Soh told the Singapore Exchange (SGX) that he, in fact, held just 16.06 per cent of Jade and no longer had the resources to complete the buyout.
He had pledged about 300 million Jade shares to Australian broker Opes Prime as collateral for a loan to partly finance the buyout. Opes, however, went into receivership on March 27, and the stock was seized by the company's creditors, ANZ Bank and Merrill Lynch.
Trading in Jade shares was halted on Wednesday last week. On Saturday, the SIC allowed Dr Soh to call off the takeover.
Trading then resumed on Monday, triggering a frenzy, with investors dumping Jade and sending its share price plunging from 22 cents to 6.5 cents, with 156 million shares changing hands.
That left the six investors in the red by about $5 million.
One paid in cash for his stake.
'I bit the bullet on Monday and sold the shares. This is the first time I have seen something like this happen. Surely, there should be a moral responsibility on the part of the offeror to declare that his shares had been pledged,' he said.
His friend and fellow investor, known only as Mr Tay, is querying the role of OCBC Bank. As the buyout's adviser, the bank confirmed that Dr Soh could complete the deal. OCBC resigned the post on Tuesday.
'How can we trust offer documents anymore?' asked Mr Tay.
The investors were even more annoyed after Jade announced yesterday that Merrill Lynch had just disclosed that it seized 256.84 million Jade shares - equivalent to a 26.49 per cent stake in the company - on March 27, the day Opes went into receivership.
This was four trading days before Dr Soh told the SGX about his difficulties.
An announcement yesterday added that Merrill sold 95.3 million shares, or 9.8 per cent, on Tuesday last week, just before the trading halt and when Jade shares were still at 22 cents.
The investors are angry that these transfers and sales were allowed to occur without the public being told.
Merrill's holding made it a substantial investor of Jade, which should have been disclosed within two working days to Jade, which should have then made an announcement on the SGX'S website.
Merrill declined to comment yesterday.
Jade shares jumped 58.3 per cent yesterday from six cents to 9.5 cents, with a staggering volume of 269 million traded.
Omni Partners was in a similar position. It bought 49 million shares at 22 cents last Monday also with the aim of selling them to Dr Soh for 22.5 cents. It is not known if it has since sold its stake.
QUESTION OF RESPONSIBILITY
'I bit the bullet on Monday and sold the shares. This is the first time I have seen something like this happen. Surely, there should be a moral responsibility on the part of the offeror to declare that his shares had been pledged.'
AN INVESTOR who paid cash for his stake.
MATTER OF TRUST
'How can we trust offer documents anymore?'
FELLOW INVESTOR, known only as Mr Tay, querying the role of OCBC Bank as the buyout's adviser. The bank confirmed that Dr Soh could complete the deal. It resigned on Tuesday.
*****************************************
(SINGAPORE) OCBC Bank has made a report to the Commercial Affairs Department on the events surrounding the failed takeover bid for Jade Technologies.
BT understands that the report was against Anthony Soh and his investment vehicle Asia Pacific Links (APL), but not directed against Jade Technologies, the target of an aborted takeover bid by Dr Soh.
In a statement released last night, OCBC's head of corporate communications Koh Ching Ching said: 'In the course of our advisory assignment, a series of events had occurred which caused us to question the integrity of the representations which we have received. This was the basis for our resignation as financial adviser in the takeover.
'We have reported the matter to the Commercial Affairs Department. Therefore, we are not able to provide any further details at this juncture.'
When contacted, Dr Soh said: 'I have no idea why they reported to CAD. But if it's related to the disclosure of the pledged shares I think it's a bit too far.
'I will cooperate with the authorities and I'll do full disclosure to defend myself.'
Early last month, Dr Soh made through APL a 22.5 cents a share conditional offer for Jade, stating he owned about 46.5 per cent of the company. OCBC Bank was the financial adviser to the offeror.
Dr Soh disclosed in a letter to Jade's board on April 1 he had pledged 30.5 per cent of Jade's share capital to Australian broker Opes Prime as security for margin loans. OCBC Bank quit that day as financial adviser to the offeror.
When Opes failed, ownership of those shares passed to its creditors, among them Merrill Lynch. With a much smaller shareholding than thought, Dr Soh admitted last Saturday he could not guarantee he had enough funds to satisfy full acceptances of the offer.
Posted Thursday, April 10, 2008
"In this country, you gotta make the money first. Then when you get the money, you get the power. Then when you get the power, then you get the women."
Sex and Financial Risk Linked in Brain
By SETH BORENSTEIN
April 7, 2008
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A new brain-scan study may help explain what's going on in the minds of financial titans when they take risky monetary gambles — sex. When young men were shown erotic pictures, they were more likely to make a larger financial gamble than if they were shown a picture of something scary, such a snake, or something neutral, such as a stapler, university researchers reported.
The arousing pictures lit up the same part of the brain that lights up when financial risks are taken.
"You have a need in an evolutionary sense for both money and women. They trigger the same brain area," said Camelia Kuhnen, a Northwestern University finance professor who conducted the study with a Stanford University psychologist.
Their research appears in the current edition of the peer-reviewed journal NeuroReport.
The study only involved 15 heterosexual young men at Stanford University. It focused on the sex and money hub, the V-shaped nucleus accumbens, which sits near the base of the brain and plays a central role in what you experience as pleasure.
When that hub was activated by the erotic images, the men were far more likely to bet high on a random chance game that would earn them either a dollar or a dime. Each man made more than 50 gambles under brain scans.
Stanford psychologist Brian Knutson, a lead author of the study, says it's all about the power of emotion and arousal and our financial decisions. The trigger doesn't have to be sex — it could be chocolate or a winning lottery ticket.
"It didn't matter if the sexy woman didn't tell you anything about the odds of winning a roulette game," Knutson said. "What really matters is that the sexy woman is having an emotional impact. That bleeds over into your financial decisions."
Kuhnen said the same link could hold true for women, but they didn't test it because it is more difficult to find an erotic image that would appeal to many different heterosexual women compared to heterosexual men.
The link between sex and greed goes back hundreds of thousands of years, to men's evolutionary role as provider or resource gatherer to attract women, said Kevin McCabe, professor of economics, law and neuroscience at George Mason University, who wasn't part of the study.
"Risk-taking is a natural way of increasing your relative success, but, of course, there's a downside to it, what we're seeing right now in the economy," McCabe said.
The results of the study jibe with the real life on the trading floor, said Phil Flynn, a former Chicago commodities floor trader and current analyst at Alaron Trading Corp.
"I'm not shocked that it may be part of the deal," Flynn said Friday. "When you talk about all the euphemisms for trading (on the floor), they can be used for sex as well."
("Massaging the market" and "hardcore" were about the cleanest that he and his colleagues could come up with.)
The study conforms with recent research that indicates men shown a pornographic movie were more likely to make riskier sexual decisions. Another suggests straight men think less about their financial future after being shown pictures of pretty women.
One still-to-be-published study at Harvard University found a link between higher testosterone levels and financial risk-taking.
But the study conducted at Stanford, funded by the National Institutes of Health, went deeper, using functional magnetic resonance imaging machines. It's part of a new but growing field called neuroeconomics that attempts to take the hard-wired science of brain biology and mix it with the softer sciences of psychology and economics to figure out why we make the financial decisions we do.
An earlier study by the same team found that the brain's reward area lit up at about the same time as risky decision-making.
The erotic pictures experiment was designed to find which was the cause and which was the effect. The answer: Lighting up the reward area, in this case with soft-core pictures, caused the risk-taking, Kuhnen said.
"The more activation there you have, the more prone you are to taking more risk," Kuhnen said. "It could be a feedback loop."
The flip side was that the photos of snakes and spiders activated the portion of the brain often associated with pain, fear and anger. And those people were more likely to bet low.
This all makes sense to Harvard economist Terry Burnham, author of the book "Mean Genes." Burnham said it could be all summed up in a famous line from the movie "Scarface."
"In this country, you gotta make the money first. Then when you get the money, you get the power. Then when you get the power, then you get the women."
My Friend...There was once a very lovely, very frightened girl. She lived alone except for a nameless cat.
Moon River - Audrey Hepburn
Moon River, wider than a mile
I'm crossing you in style some day
Oh, dream maker, you heart breaker
Wherever you're goin', I'm goin' your way
Two drifters, off to see the world
There's such a lot of world to see
We're after the same rainbow's end, waitin' round the bend
My huckleberry friend, Moon River, and me
Posted Thursday, April 10, 2008
"To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate rewards." - Sir John Templeton
Fear and Greed
What drives the market is Fear and Greed.
Fear is greater than Greed, which explains why a stock drops faster than it rises.
Fear is from people who are afraid that they are missing moves in the market and will jump in to buy a stock with disregard to reaserch and logic.
Greed is from people who are making good returns, but will not take profits because they want more. Then they will loose their profits and jump back to fear again.
"True fear is the unknown.
The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know. "
Posted Thursday, April 10, 2008
Smoke gets into your eyes - The Platters
They asked me how I knew
My true love was true
I of course replied
"Something here inside
Cannot be denied"
They, said some day you'll find
All who love are blind
When you heart's on fire
You must realize
Smoke gets in your eyes
So I chaffed them, and I gaily laughed
To think they would doubt our love
And yet today, my love has gone away
I am without my love
Now laughing friends deride
Tears I cannot hide
So I smile and say
"When a lovely flame dies
Smoke gets in your eyes"
Smoke gets in your eyes
Yuan hits milestone vs. dollar
The Chinese currency broke 7 yuan per dollar for the first time Thursday, squeezing exporters.
April 10, 2008
SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China's currency nudged past 7 yuan to the U.S. dollar Thursday, a milestone bound to please Beijing's trading partners and dismay exporters struggling to remain competitive in overseas markets.
Late in the day, the dollar was at 6.9913 yuan on the over-the-counter market, after dipping to an all-time low of 6.9907. It closed at 7.0017 on Wednesday.
The trading Thursday marked the first time the Chinese currency has ventured below the 7 yuan mark since the government loosened the unit's peg to the dollar in 2005. The yuan has gained about 18% since then.
That has made Chinese-made products more expensive overseas, while shrinking the yuan-denominated value of profits from exports.
An acceleration recently in the yuan's gains has been squeezing China-based exporters, including multinationals, at a time when they already are wincing at surging costs for labor, energy and materials.
"Our costs keep rising and the dollar is falling so we make less money than ever before," said a quality control manager at EI Global, an exporter of small promotional items.
"I heard my boss might even switch away from exports," said the manager, who gave only his surname, Tao.
Beijing limits the yuan to a narrow trading band, contending that restrictions are needed to protect China's developing financial industries.
The cost of money
The United States wants the yuan to appreciate faster, and some American lawmakers are calling for punitive tariffs on Chinese imports. Washington reported a $256.3 billion trade deficit with China last year, its highest on record with any country.
During a visit to Beijing last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson reiterated calls for Beijing to let the yuan trade more freely. China has been noncommittal, vowing only to keep the yuan steady while moving gradually toward a more open exchange regime.
A stronger yuan makes imports of key commodities like crude oil less costly in local terms. But for some industries, the foreign exchange losses are outstripping the gains.
"These are hard times for us," says Wei Yaoting, a textile trader in Shanghai that exports large shipments to the United States.
A typical U.S. order, received last July and delivered in November, was not paid for until February. Over those seven months, the dollar-denominated payment declined in value as the yuan rose.
"We end up swallowing the losses," said Wei, manager of Shanghai HTC Holdings Import & Export Co.
"The more exports, the bigger the losses. We just break even," Wei said. "We're even considering giving up selling to foreign markets that trade in U.S. dollars."
Although most foreign trade, in China and elsewhere, is denominated in dollars, companies increasingly are setting contracts in euros or British pounds to avoid foreign exchange losses, said Ma Xinzheng, deputy chief editor of WebTextiles.com, an industry research group.
A majority of 1,000 textile traders responding to a survey released this week by WebTextiles said they were setting deals in other currencies.
"Some traders try their best not to deal in U.S. dollars," Ma said.
The reluctance to rely on U.S. dollars is not confined to Chinese traders.
It's also seen in the increasing use of sovereign wealth funds to diversify investments beyond U.S. dollar holdings, billionaire financier George Soros noted in a conference call with journalists Thursday.
"There definitely has been a decline in the status of the dollar as the unquestioned monetary reserve," Soros said.
Posted Friday, April 11, 2008
Oil creeps above $111 a barrel
Yesterday's inventory report sparked record highs, and today's trade is generating some follow-through.
April 10, 2008
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Oil prices crept upward Thursday after settling at record high in the previous session on an unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's inventory report, closely watched by the market, showed Wednesday that crude stocks fell 3.2 million barrels last week.
"The crude inventory draw was a big surprise to the market, which expected an increase of 2 to 3 million barrels. It was a substantial drawdown," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected, on average, an increase of 2.4 million barrels.
By noon in Europe Thursday, light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 73 cents to $111.60 a barrel in electronic trading ahead of the opening on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The contract rose $2.37 to settle at a record $110.87 a barrel on Wednesday. It rose as high as $112.21 a barrel during the floor session, surpassing the previous trading record of $111.80, set last month.
Some analysts cautioned against reading too much into last week's drop in crude supplies, noting a sharp drop in imports over the same period.
"Imports have been somewhat erratic, I would say this one week's result is not a trend," Shum said. "It might be compensated by a large import next week."
Vienna's JBC Energy, in its daily newsletter, also suggested the price spike was an overreaction, noting that "at 316 million barrels, stocks are perfectly in line with the 5-year average."
The EIA also said gasoline and distillate supplies -- which include diesel fuel and heating oil -- fell more than expected last week, although analysts said gasoline inventory levels remained healthy.
"Gasoline inventories are higher than the historical average at this time of the year, and gasoline fundamentals are actually weakening in the U.S., so there is really no need to worry about supply being too tight," Shum said.
Analysts expect demand for gasoline and oil to fall further as prices rise. Theoretically, that should bring prices down. But so far this year, prices have shown little inclination to fall in response to eroding demand. With gasoline supplies shrinking and the Northern Hemisphere summer approaching -- when demand, while weaker than last year, will be stronger than it is now -- consumers may have to wait until later in the year for price relief.
Also supporting oil prices was the release of a gloomy report by the International Monetary Fund Wednesday that said the U.S. is headed for a recession, dragging world economic growth down along with it.
The IMF slashed growth projections for the United States -- the epicenter of the woes -- and for the world economy. Its sobering new forecast underscored the damage inflicted from the U.S. housing and credit debacles.
"Normally with bearish economic data you would see oil pricing drop, but these days the trading relationship is: bad economic news means bullish movements in oil," Shum said.
Financial markets interpret grim news as indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates, which would drive the U.S. dollar down, he said. A weaker dollar attracts financial investors to oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation.
In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures jumped by more than 3 cents to trade at $3.2670 a gallon while gasoline prices added over 2 cents to $2.7945 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 15.5 cents to $10.211 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Brent crude rose 60 cents to $109.07 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.
Posted Friday, April 11, 2008
"It is not explicit, and prevails not by a conscious choice, but by supressing the ability to see an alternative" - H.H. Rosenbrock
In the Matrix, which pill would you take, the red or the blue?
The question of which pill to take illustrates the personal aspect of the decision to study philosophy. Do you live on in ignorance (and potentially bliss) or do you lead what Aristotle called 'the examined life'...
The Matrix is a film filled with religious and philosophical symbolism. The plot supposes that humans live in vats many years in the future, being fed false sensory information by a giant virtual reality computer (the Matrix). The perpetrators of this horror are machines of the future who use humans as a source of power. Humans are literally farmed.
The central character of the film, Neo, is presented to us in the opening part of the film as a loner who is searching for a mysterious character called Morpheus (named after the Greek god of dreams and sleep). He is also trying to discover the answer to the question "What is the Matrix?"
Morpheus contacts Neo just as the machines (posing as sinister 'agents') are trying to keep Neo from finding out any more. When Morpheus and Neo meet, Morpheus offers Neo two pills. The red pill will answer the question "what is the Matrix?" (by removing him from it) and the blue pill simply for life to carry on as before. As Neo reaches for the red pill Morpheus warns Neo "Remember, all I'm offering is the truth. Nothing more."
The film as a whole and especially the choosing scene is deeply compelling. Why is the choice between what you believe you know and an unknown 'real' truth so fascinating? How could a choice possibly be made? On the one hand everyone you love and everything that you have built you life upon. One the other the promise only of truth.
The question then is not about pills, but what they stand for in these circumstances. The question is asking us whether reality, truth, is worth pursuing. The blue pill will leave us as we are, in a life consisting of habit, of things we believe we know. We are comfortable, we do not need truth to live. The blue pill symbolises commuting to work every day, or brushing your teeth.
The red pill is an unknown quantity. We are told that it can help us to find the truth. We don't know what that truth is, or even that the pill will help us to find it. The red pill symbolises risk, doubt and questioning. In order to answer the question, you can gamble your whole life and world on a reality you have never experienced.
However, in order to investigate which course of action to take we need to investigate why the choice is faced. Why should we even have to decide whether to pursue truth?
The answer in short, is inquisitiveness. Many people throughout human existence have questioned and enquired. Most of them have not been scientists or doctors or philosophers, but simply ordinary people asking 'what if?' or 'why?' Asking these questions ultimately leads us to a choice. Do you continue to ask and investigate, or do you stop and never ask again? This in essence, is the question posed to Neo in the film.
So what are the advantages of taking the blue pill? As one of the characters in the film says, "ignorance is bliss" Essentially, if the truth is unknown, or you believe that you know the truth, what is there to question or worry about?
By accepting what we are told and experience life can be easier. There is the social pressure to 'fit in', which is immensely strong in most cultures. Questioning the status quo carries the danger of ostracism, possibly persecution. This aspect has a strong link with politics. People doing well under the current system are not inclined to look favourably on those who question the system. Morpheus says to Neo "You have to understand that many people are not ready to be unplugged, and many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system that they will fight to protect it."
The system also has a place for you, an expected path to follow. This removes much of the doubt and discomfort experienced by a trailblazer.
Another argument on the side of the blue pill is how does anyone know that the status quo is not in fact the truth? The act of simply questioning does not infer a lack of validity on the questioned. Why not assume that your experience is innocent until proven guilty? Just accept everything?
So if the arguments for the blue pill are so numerous, why take the red pill? Why pursue truth even though it may be unpalatable and the journey to it hard? In the film, Neo risks death to escape the virtual reality and discovers a brutal reality from which he cannot return. As he discovers the trouble with asking questions is that the answers are not necessarily what you want to hear.
To justify taking the red pill we might ask what is the purpose of an ignorant existence? Further still, what is there in merely existing? Simply existing brings humans down to the level of objects; they might have utility or even purpose, but where is the meaning? Existence without meaning is surely not living your life, but just experiencing it. As Trinity says to Neo, "The Matrix cannot tell you who you are."
Randomness
It is not explicit, and prevails not by a conscious choice, but by supressing the ability to see an alternative
H. H. Rosenbrock - Source: OU Course materials
about randomness
Given the potential disadvantages of choosing the red pill, the motivation for discovering the truth must then be very strong. The film makes much of this point. Trinity says to Neo "It's the question that drives us, Neo." and Morpheus compares the motivation for Neo's search to "a splinter in your mind - driving you mad." The motivation for answering the question is obviously strong as the answer will help us to find the meaning in our lives.
What we are looking at here is the drive to answer a question, but the key to this is what drove the question in the first place. The asking of questions about our environment our experience and ourselves is fundamental to the human condition. Children ask a seemingly never-ending stream of questions from an early age. It is only with education and socialisation that some people stop asking these questions. However, we remain, as it were, hard-wired to enquire.
This is an inevitable consequence of consciousness. A being with a mind, conscious of itself and its existence, experiencing a reality, needs to organise the data that it receives from its senses. Simply observing and recording does not allow for consciousness. It is what we do with that information that allows us to think. In order to process and store the vast amount of information received, the human brain attempts to identify patterns in the data; looking for the patterns behind what is experienced. This is asking questions of the sensory information, and requires reasoning. By definition a conscious mind seeks to know. Knowing something requires more than just data, but intelligence or reasoning applied to that data. To attempt to obtain knowledge we must therefore question the data our mind receives; thus, consciousness questions.
So the metaphor of the journey to truth that Neo takes is complete. The journey starts with a question, there is a search for the answer and the answer may be reached. This shows us that the journey does not start with Neo choosing between the pills, or with ourselves deciding whether to question. The act of asking the question is itself the starting point as the aim of asking the question is to seek truth and knowledge.
We have established that consciousness is aware and seeks knowledge and that thus the conscious mind must question. To question is to seek the truth and start on the journey to knowledge. Therefore the choice between the pills is surely made for us. The fact that we are conscious appears to require us to take the red pill.
However, this can be simply countered by someone who would prefer to take the blue pill. They may wish to seek the truth in a different way, or in a less mind jarring set of circumstances. They can choose the blue pill and not deny their consciousness, but to stop seeking the truth entirely would be to deny their consciousness.
Thus we are philosophically driven to seek the truth and the act of questioning whether to seek it is in itself seeking the truth. As conscious minds we will always seek the truth. However, the choice over the red or blue pills is not solely a choice between whether to question or not, it is a personal choice on the method of discovering the truth.
Posted Friday, April 11, 2008
Thaw in China free trade talks
Rowan Callick, China correspondent April 11, 2008
THE Chinese and Australian governments have agreed "to unfreeze" the stalled negotiations for a free trade agreement.
Kevin Rudd said that he and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao - who held discussions at the Great Hall of the People - were "both committed to ensuring that this will be a broadly based, comprehensive and substantive free trade agreement".
He said that Trade Minister Simon Crean, who visits Beijing next week, would identify with his Chinese counterpart obstacles that have prevented substantial progress in 10 rounds of talks.
The heads of government would become involved to help speed up the process once a roadmap had been developed.
He cited the FTA signed by New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark in Beijing on Monday as part of the impetus to bring "fresh political momentum" to the talks, which he hoped would be completed "as soon as possible".
Mr Rudd said that he and Mr Wen "agreed to unfreeze what have been the frozen bilateral negotiations".
China is Australia's largest partner in terms of two-way trade, which totalled $50billion in the last financial year - although Japan remains the biggest buyer of Australian exports. Mr Rudd told members of the Australian Chamber of Commerce in Beijing that it was a high priority of his visit to build a better framework to make business between Australia and China easier. "China can be a baffling place the first time you come - for business or for study. To the uninitiated it can be a little intimidating," he said.
"That is why I am so keen to push ahead with our free trade agreement negotiations.
"It can help smooth the way for Australian companies in all sectors trying to do business in and with China. We understand it will take some time - these are complex and at times sensitive negotiations.
"But they have already been under way for three years. It is time we moved towards an outcome - an outcome that offers real freeing up of commercial opportunities."
Mr Rudd also made clear that China's state-owned enterprises - which comprise almost every major investor or potential investor in Australia, especially in Australian resources - would be subject to the same scrutiny from the Foreign Investment Review Board as its sovereign wealth funds. He stressed to China the non-discriminatory nature of Australia's regulations.
He told the chamber of commerce members: "I want to expand our economic relationship with China. We already have strong trade in energy, resources and agriculture. We have solid trade in manufactured goods.
"But our services trade has huge scope to develop."
But he warned "the current global financial crisis represents a real risk to the prospects for growth for many economies".
It was a subject which he has discussed "with heads of government, central banks and ministries of finance in the US, Brussels, the UK and now here in China".
"In these meetings, I have outlined my view of how Australia will contribute to what must be a global response to a global financial crisis," he said. "As financial markets become more global and assets are traded more quickly between nations, so too must regulation and supervision become more global.
"Australia is a long-standing advocate and driver of improvements to global standards for the financial sector. Just as important as improving and maintaining the integrity of the global financial system is enhancing the openness of global trade."
He also told the chamber members that he had "urged China to allow greater access for Australian fund managers to operate here".
Posted Friday, April 11, 2008
A miracle is something that only God or heaven upstairs is able to perform...
"sometimes when you come to earth from your past life you still have the qualities of the last life you lived. "
Star King #8 - Five Year Old Blind Genius Pianist (en)
5 year old genius pianist, Yoo Ye Eun who can't see from birth but can play the piano after listening to the tune just ONCE! Everyone is touched and moved by her performance.
Dollar steady against euro, yen in afternoon trade ahead of G7 meeting
Apr 11 2008
HONG KONG - The U.S. dollar was little changed against the euro and yen in afternoon trading in Asia on Friday as investors preferred to wait for the outcome of the Group of Seven meeting later in the day.
Central bankers and finance ministers from the United States, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Canada and Italy will meet in Washington to tackle the global economy amid the turbulent financial markets. The gathering is a prelude to the International Monetay Fund-World Bank annual spring meetings this weekend.
"There is no fresh impetus to drive the currencies to any direction," said Thomas Lam, senior treasury economist at United Overseas Bank in Singapore.
"The seeming calm in financial markets thus far, while somewhat eerie, might be a nice break from the intense gyrations of late."
At 1:00 p.m. (0500 GMT), the euro was trading at $1.5761 from $1.5763 in Sydney this morning. The dollar was quoted at 102.03 yen from 101.88 yen.
The euro briefly touched a record high of $1.5914 in New York trading Thursday before the European Central Bank announced the outcome of its monetary policy meeting. After the ECB meeting, at which policy makers decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 percent, the euro eased back to the $1.57 levels.
"There is no significant surprise from the ECB meeting," said Lam.
The Bank of England also did not disappoint the market as it delivered a 25 basis point rate cut as widely anticipated.
The dollar is still under pressure on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of the month to loosen tight credit markets and lift the economy.
Since September, the Fed has slashed its rates by a cumulative 300 basis points. In contrast, the ECB's interest rate has remained unchanged since June.
John Noonan of Thomson Financial Markets expects the euro zone officials led by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to raise concerns about the strong euro and its impact on the 12-member countries' trade with the United States.
"His (Trichet) comment that foreign exchange volatility was 'deplorable' has heightened expectations that the G7 meeting this weekend might be a forum for euro zone officials worried about the persistently strong euro," Noonan said.
Global Forex Trading senior financial analyst Ian Copsey said the euro probably has reached its new high at the moment.
"Indeed, unless G7 comes up with something more solid than the rather stodgy 'foreign exchange rates should reflect fundamentals' and 'excessive volatility is not welcome' comments, I wouldn't want to bet against a lower dollar still," Copsey said.
Hong Kong 1:00 p.m. (0500 GMT)
U.S. dollar
yen 102.03
Swiss franc 1.0073
Euro
U.S. dollar 1.5761
yen 160.98
Swiss franc 1.5880
pound 0.7982
Pound
U.S. dollar 1.9739
yen 201.60
Swiss franc 1.9886
Australian dollar
U.S dollar 0.9323
pound 0.4723
yen 95.23
Posted Friday, April 11, 2008
曾淵滄：港元不會與美元脫钩
11-4-2008
昨日人民幣兌美元終於突破1美元兌7元人民幣的大關，於是炒港元脫钩的消息又起。港元是不是該與美元脫钩？這是一個討論了十多年的話題，港元與美元掛钩掛了25年，有好處有壞處，沒有絕對優勝的理由來支持港幣與美元脫钩。因此，相信香港特區政府會採用多一事不如少一事的方法來應對，換言之，不會脫钩。有人建議另一個更莫名其妙的方法，那就是港元與人民幣掛钩，這是完全不可能發生的事。人民幣不能自由兌換，港元與人民幣掛钩，去那裏找人民幣來當港元鈔票的儲備？目前，香港3家發鈔銀行每發行7.8港元時得交出1美元給港府當成抵押、儲備，若港元與人民幣掛钩，發鈔銀行得交出大量的人民幣，去那裏找大量的人民幣？或者，等人民幣能自由兌換後，港元改與人民幣掛钩吧？這是多餘的問題，如果人民幣可以自由兌換，港元已不需要存在，大家用人民幣好了。許多人都說，港元不與美元脫钩，隨美元貶值，香港會面對嚴重的通脹局面。這是不正確的說法，人民幣天天在升值，可是，你可知道，內地的通脹率比香港高。歐元升勢更厲害，歐洲也一樣有通脹，昨日，新加坡政府突然宣佈放寬新加坡元買賣的寬度，一下子，新加坡元升值1.5%。
中國重汽找機會增持
新加坡政府說，讓貨幣升值是減低通脹的方法，但是過去一年，新加坡元兌港元也升值不少，但是新加坡的通脹一樣嚴重，可見，貨幣的升值與貶值對通脹的影響不算很大。不過，新加坡元升值我也很高興，去年我在新加坡賣了一個單位的公寓，得到的現金至今依然以新加坡元的形式留在新加坡，也升值了不少。去年底中國重汽（3808）上市，我有申請，是不借錢但填白表大額申請，當然能獲一定額的分配。我原本有興趣在開市第一天再買入，那裏知道，該股一上市就跌破招股價，我自然也不敢買。之後，股價一跌再跌，兩度跌至6.6水平而反彈，現價8.02元，與招股價比較，不見了37.7%，PE更跌至18.8倍，是少數屬於高增長、不會受宏觀調控影響的高增長股。重汽是中國重型貨車的龍頭企業，市場佔有率排行第一，達21%。中國政府努力發展基建，發展過程要用到重型卡車，道路建好也需要重型卡車，這是一門增長很快的行業，我正在開始留意這隻股，找機會增持。
Posted Friday, April 11, 2008
GE Says Profit Fell, Citing Finance; Forecast Reduced
By Rachel Layne
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. dropped the most since the 1987 stock market crash after reporting an unexpected decline in profit just a month after Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt assured investors 2008 earnings would be met.
GE declined as much as 13 percent in New York trading, wiping out about $46 billion in value, or more than the 2006 gross domestic product of Ecuador.
Immelt cut the $2.42 annual forecast that he had called ``in the bag'' for 2008 in December and had repeated as recently as March 13. GE now says capital markets seized up just days later, forcing the company to reduce the value of some securities in the last two weeks of the quarter and blocking some asset sales. The Federal Reserve's March 14 move to help rescue Bear Stearns Cos. created ``a different world,'' Immelt said today.
``The miss and cut to guidance raises credibility concerns for GE over the near-term, given that CEO Jeff Immelt had expressed confidence,'' New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Deane Dray wrote in a report today. Goldman downgraded shares to ``neutral.''
Profit from continuing operations dropped to $4.36 billion, or 44 cents a share, from $4.93 billion, or 48 cents, a year earlier. Revenue rose 8 percent to $42.2 billion, less than GE's prediction of about $44 billion. GE was expected to earn 51 cents a share, the average of 15 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg poll.
``You're shocked'' by such results, Benjamin Pace, chief investment officer of Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in New York, told Bloomberg Television.
Shares Plummet
The stock dropped $4.65, or 13 percent, to $32.10 at 2:03 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares had fallen less than 1 percent this year compared with a 7.3 percent decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
On a conference call today, analysts demanded that Immelt explain why he told retail investors on a March 13 Webcast that Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE would likely meet its annual forecast of at least $2.42 a share.
``Two days after the Webcast, the Bear Stearns situation took place,'' Immelt said. ``The last two weeks in March were a different world in financial services.''
The market turmoil also prevented GE from selling some finance assets, Immelt said. GE put its U.S. credit card business and Japanese consumer finance units up for sale last year. The health-care unit also trailed expectations.
The U.S. may be near a recession because of a slump in housing prices and a tightening of credit markets. Some members of the Fed's rate-setting Open Market Committee said at their March 18 meeting that they saw the risk of a ``prolonged and severe downturn'' in the U.S. economy, the world's largest.
`Biggest Misses'
Immelt said on the GE-owned CNBC television network that ``We hate disappointing investors. It's not part of the company. It's not part of the culture. We take accountability for that.''
GE missed its forecast for the commercial finance unit. That cut per-share profit by 5 cents and resulted in a lowered full- year forecast of $2.20 to $2.30 a share, down from the previous forecast of at least $2.42. Immelt had told investors in December that $2.42 a share was ``in the bag.''
``The quarter was disappointing,'' James Hardesty, president of Hardesty Capital Management in Baltimore, told Bloomberg Television. ``It does reflect a rather sharp economic slowdown that seems to be occurring in the U.S.''
Finance units may have a profit decline of 5 percent to 10 percent this year and non-financial units will increase 10 percent to 15 percent. That makes total profit little-changed to up 5 percent, GE said in its statement.
Didn't See It Coming
``This is something that we clearly didn't see until the end of the quarter,'' Immelt said on the conference call. ``What we did is try to reflect on that, not make excuses and take appropriate actions. The company's fundamentals remain strong. We believe that the strategy and the fundamentals remain strong.''
GE Healthcare, the world's biggest maker of medical imaging equipment, had a profit decline of 17 percent, below the predicted 5 percent rise. GE hasn't shipped its OEC X-ray machines from a plant for 20 months as it works to comply with an FDA consent decree. That cost about 1 cent a share, Immelt said.
GE Infrastructure, the largest of the six main segments, has units that focus on oil and gas equipment, jet engines, locomotives, power-turbines, water-treatment and aircraft leasing. Its revenue climbed 23 percent, more than forecast, driving a 17 percent increase in earnings, which matched GE's prediction.
Downgrades
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse cut GE's rating to ``neutral,'' and a Deutsche Bank analyst lowered the rating to ``hold.'' Thirteen analysts recommend buying the stock, and seven suggest holding it. None recommend selling. Before today's earnings announcement, 16 analysts rated the stock a ``buy'' and four rated it ``hold.''
``There's probably a very good buy in here,'' Joseph Keating, chief investment officer of First American Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. His firm manages $3 billion, including GE shares. ``They have a worldwide franchise in industrial products and with the decline of the dollar, their products are competitive worldwide.''
The cost of protecting bonds of GE, the biggest U.S. corporate borrower, reached the highest in almost two weeks. Credit-default swaps on GE's General Electric Capital Corp. increased 10 basis points to 131 basis points, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group in New York. The contracts have about doubled this year as the credit-turmoil that started in the U.S. housing market led investors to flee everything from commercial paper to leveraged loans.
``The pressure is on like it's never been on before for all senior management at GE,''` said Nicholas Heymann, an analyst with Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., in an interview today. ``This is one of the biggest misses that GE's had in quite some time.''
Investors and analysts asked Immelt to assure them that GE's ability to forecast, and strategy as a whole, remained intact and whether this surprise decline eroded GE's reputation as a safe investment.
``I understand your frustration,'' Immelt said. ``I'm not going to be defensive about it, this is a company that's delivered for a long time. The franchise of the company is very strong. And I feel the same about the strategy of the company.''
Posted Saturday, April 12, 2008
Visas tightened
That long holiday in China may have to wait until after the Olympics in August.
By Jinny Koh and Ng Jing Yng
Apr 8, 2008
IF you are planning for an extended trip to China, you may have to wait until after the Beijing Olympic Games to do so.
Travellers can no longer apply for double- or multiple-entry visas as China has stopped issuing them, said travel agencies here that received the notification last Thursday.
Single-entry visas are now valid for only up to 20 days, as opposed to three months previously. Singaporeans can still visit China for up to 14 days without a visa.
Ms Eileen Oh, senior manager at ASA Travel, said the Chinese Embassy in Singapore had issued a notice stating that the issuing of multiple-entry and double-entry visas will cease until further notice.
While no reason was given, wire agencies suggest the move is due to the upcoming Beijing Games, and that the ban will stay in place until after August.
Travel agencies Today spoke to say the impact is minimal here, as most Singaporean travellers usually spend less than two weeks in China.
"The number of Singaporeans who apply for a double- or multiple-entry visa is only about 5 per cent of our total number of travellers," said SA Tours' Ruth Lim.
And companies with business dealings in China do not seem worried — those Today spoke to said their business trips do not usually last for more than two weeks.
Ms Jacinta Low, head of human resource planning and employee communications at OCBC Bank, said: "Normally, our Singaporean staff visit China for a two- to three-day business trip. Those going there to work on a long-term basis will apply for a work permit, which can last them for a year."
It is understood work permits are not affected by the latest change.
Posted Saturday, April 12, 2008
The different faces of Singapore
INSIGHT DOWN SOUTH
By SEAH CHIANG NEE
April 12, 2008
The top 10% of the population are the rich, who live in wealthy districts, while the bottom 20% are the languishers who have difficulty coping with a high cost structured life. The third is the large middle class.
A SINGAPOREAN couple walked into a Lamborghini showroom and bought two units – his and hers – for US$650,000 (RM2.04mil) each.
“It’s amazing; young kids coming in and spending S$2mil (RM4.7mil),” the manager told a journalist. “I don’t think they were even 30 years old.”
Last year, 29 of these crème de la crème models were sold countrywide, beating Ferrari (26 cars).
In 2007 a total of 320 luxury cars including Rolls Royce, Bentley, Lotus, Aston Martin and Maserati, were sold to Singapore’s new rich.
As the nouveau riche basks in their newfound glory, more Singaporeans from the poorer quarters are approaching the government for food aid.
A growing number of homeless can be seen sleeping in void decks of buildings and, pressed by high living costs, more elderly citizens are working as toilet cleaners or collecting used cans for recycling.
Singapore remains largely a middle class society. The high number of shopping plazas attests to it. But the group may be decreasing as a result of globalisation and runaway prices.
The city-state of 4.7 million people has two – perhaps three – faces. On the top 10% are the rich, who live in wealthy districts, own yachts and blow S$10,000 (RM23,209) on a single meal.
At the bottom 20% of the population are the languishers who have difficulties coping with a high cost structured life in an international city. The third is the large middle class.
Take the case of Carol John, 27. She doesn’t own a bed, sleeps every night on thin mattresses with her three children. Hers is a one-bedroom flat that reeks of urine smell from the common corridor outside.
“I can’t save anything, it’s so difficult for me,” John, who is unemployed, told a reporter. She relies on her husband’s S$600 (RM1,392) monthly salary and S$100 (RM232) government handout.
She is luckier than others who are homeless – elderly and even entire families - who sleep at void decks or the beach and bathe at public restrooms.
In perspective, Singapore is the second richest country in Asia next to Japan, with a per capita GDP of US$48,900 (RM154,141).
Homeless cases are few, nowhere comparable in number to Osaka’s army of vagabonds or New York’s ‘bag ladies’.
In fact, nine out of 10 poor people in Singapore have their own home, and usually a phone and a refrigerator.
But in the local context, it is a potential minefield of unrest. The proportion of Singaporeans earning less than S$1,000 (RM2,320) a month rose to 18% last year, from 16% in 2002, according to central bank data.
The bad part is that life is often worse for the unemployed – compared to other countries - because Singapore has no safety net and no rural hinterland to cushion their suffering.
Unlike in Malaysia or Thailand, a jobless person who cannot cope with the global market has no countryside to retreat to so that he can live off the land.
The problem will get worse. In other words, the rich will get richer and the poor, poorer with the middle class remaining more or less stagnant.
The state’s Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, has worsened from 42.5 in 1998 to 47.2 in 2006, which makes it in league with the Philippines (46.1) and Guatemala (48.3), and worse than China (44.7) according to the World Bank.
Other wealthy Asian nations such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan have more European-style Ginis of 24.9, 31.6 and 32.6 respectively.
This is one of the worst failures of the modern People’s Action Party, despite its ‘democratic socialism’ principles.
It was with these that its first generation leaders were able to turn a poor squalid society into a middle class success story.
Economists attribute the major blame to globalisation, which benefits the skilled citizens and the rich but makes it hard for the unskilled, the aged and the sick.
Even the highly educated are not spared.
The use of new instruments like company restructuring, relocation or out-sourcing of workers – unheard of before – is widening the gap and creating more income inequality.
For example, while the proportion of lower income rises, those who earn S$8,000 (RM18,570) or more increased from 4.7% to 6%.
This rising inequality could eventually undermine the bedrock of society - the broad middle class.
Some economists say that the feared erosion of Japan’s middle class, first enunciated by Japanese strategist Kenichi Ohmae, may already be happening here.
His country was emerging into a “M-shape” class distribution, in which a very few middle class people may climb up the ladder into the upper class, while the others gradually sank to the lower classes.
These people suffered a deterioration in living standard, faced the threat of unemployment, or their average salary was dropping, he said.
Gradually, they can only live a way the lower classes live: e.g. take buses instead of driving their own car, cut their budget for meals instead of dining at better restaurants, spend less in consumer goods.
And, Kenichi said, all this might take place while the economy enjoyed remarkable growth and overall wages rose.
However, the wealth increase may concentrate in the pockets of the very few rich people in the society.
The masses cannot benefit from the growth, and their living standard goes into decline.
The Singapore government, which relies on the middle class vote to remain in power, has vowed to make economic gap-levelling its top priority – for survival, even if nothing else.
Posted Saturday April 12, 2008
人民币对美元汇率首破七 专家分析原因
2008年04月11日
来源：CCTV
从3月下旬开始，就一路蹿升的人民币对美元汇率，终于在今天突破了7：1的整数关口，随着人民币持续升值，相对而言，美元就在不断贬值，那么，美国方面又是怎么看待双方汇率的这种变化？我们在第一时间联系了我台驻美国记者，一起来看看她发回的报道。
中央电视台驻华盛顿记者站记者牛海峰：“人民币升值美元贬值正对美国经济的方方面面产生影响，也引起美国民众的广泛关注，他们认为，由于美元贬值，原本价廉物美的中国制造价格也在上扬，因而对日常生活产生一定影响，另外住房市场降温，金融市场动荡，已经对美国整体经济造成严重不利影响，国际货币基金组织预测，美国经济将在今年陷入轻度衰退，近来，美元对世界主要货币汇率走低趋势加重，对欧元汇率更是频频创下历史新低，从目前看来，美元贬值的趋势在短期内仍旧难以逆转。”
华盛顿市民：“影响了我出国旅游的念头，我现在不想出国旅游，因为太贵了，作为美国人，现在国外的价格对我们来说太高了。”
华盛顿市民：“最近我打算去夏威夷旅游，和去欧洲相比，在国内我可以使用美元。”
人民币升值、美元贬值，对普通美国人的生活带来了一些影响，如果从2005年7月21日，人民币汇率形成机制改革算起，人民币对美元累计升值幅度已经达到了13.8%，是什么样的力量推动着人民币对美元的汇率节节走高？来看一下记者康敬峰发回的报道。 (文/摘自CCTV)
Posted Saturday April 12, 2008
Kokia - Arigatou ありがとう
誰もが気づかぬうちに
何かを失っている
フッと気づけばあなたはいない
思い出だけを残して
せわしい時の中
言葉を失った人形達のように
街角に溢れたノラネコのように
声にならない叫びが聞こえてくる
もしも
もう一度あなたに会えるなら
たった一言伝えたい
ありがと ありがとう
時には傷つけあっても
あなたを感じていたい
思いではせめてもの慰め
いつまでもあなたはここにいる
もしも
もう一度あなたに会えるなら
たった一言伝えたい ありがと ありがとう
もしも
もう一度あなたに会えるなら
たった一言伝えたい
もしも
もう一度あなたに会えるなら
たった一言伝えたい
ありがと ありがとう
時には傷つけあっても あなたを感じていたい
Everyone loses something without knowing it
I suddenly noticed that you were not with me
You left me only with memories
In my busy time, I was lost for words just like dolls
Like lots of homeless cats in town
I heard cries which could not be put in voice
If I could see you again just once
I would like to simply tell you a word
"Thank you" (Thank you is a word in Japanese)
"Thank you"
Even if we sometimes hurt each other
I want to feel you
Your memories are my only consolation
You are here forever
If I could see you again just once
I would like to tell you a word
"Thank you"
"Thank you"
×2
Even if we sometimes hurt each other
I want to feel you
Posted Saturday April 12, 2008
Crisis Creates Asia Opportunity
04-09-2008 | Source: Hedge Fund Daily
Hedge funds specializing in distressed debt are licking their chops as they dream of tantalizing opportunities expected in Asia as a result of the current credit crisis. “We are getting ready for what we expect to be a dramatic increase in the supply of distressed debt,” Eugene Kim, CEO of Tribridge Investment Partners, said at the Reuters’ Hedge Funds and Private Equity Summit. (Tribridge reportedly is launching a Korea-focused hedge fund June 1.) Kim suggested that the opportunities – especially among troubled companies in China, Indonesia and Australia—could occur “probably” in the fourth quarter. Fueling the suggestion that the region is ripe for the picking is China’s campaign to cut back on property speculation, a decline in the Hong Kong initial public offering markets and high commodity and labor costs that are weighing heavily especially on Chinese manufacturers that export. Adding to the region’s woes, says Reuters, citing data from Thomson Financial, is the fact that sales of straight bonds in the Asian offshore markets have tumbled 38% while equity sales are almost as bad, down 32%. Commenting at the summit, Robert Appleby, chief investment officer at ADM Capital, described China as “the home of the largest pool of non-performing loans in the world” and Australia as “the newest big opportunity.”
Posted Sunday April 13, 2008
Banks set to stumble again
Wall Street expects ugly first-quarter results from Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. And the worst may not be over for financials just yet.
By David Ellis
April 11, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- When Citigroup and Merrill Lynch each fessed up to nearly $10 billion in losses last quarter, investors believed the companies had finally scrubbed their books clean.
Those hopes were a bit premature.
"The fourth quarter felt like the kitchen sink [quarter]," said Jaime Peters, a bank stock analyst at Morningstar. "We are going to find out it necessarily wasn't."
Citi and Merrill are among a group of major financial firms due to deliver ugly results for the first quarter in the coming week.
The first quarter was marked by the near collapse of Bear Stearns, continued credit market woes and increased signs that the U.S. economy is indeed in a recession.
Of the six banks and brokers scheduled to report results in the next few days, three are expected to post a loss - Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and Washington Mutual, according to estimates from earnings tracker Thomson Financial.
JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Wachovia are expected to report a drop in earnings from a year ago.
And Bank of America is also forecast to report a steep decline in earnings from a year ago when it releases its results on April 21.
Overall, analysts anticipate that the banks' results won't be quite as bad as they were when they announced grim fourth-quarter results three months ago. But banks still find themselves squeezed by many of the same problems that plagued them at the end of 2007.
Old problems remain ... new ones crop up
Citi and Merrill are expected to announce yet another series of writedowns due to eroding values of mortgage-backed securities and leveraged loan portfolios.
Other areas have started to show increasing signs of deterioration as well. Home equity loans, for example, have become a source of trouble for banks as housing prices continue to spiral lower.
"Home equity is a well-telegraphed problem story right now," JPMorgan Chase bank analyst Vivek Juneja said in a recent conference call about the outlook for the financial services industry in 2008.
"The question simply there is how bad do losses get. The numbers, in some cases, are disastrous," he added.
To make matters worse, consumer spending has slowed and unemployment has ticked up - driving bigger losses in banks' consumer-related businesses such as credit card, small business and even their commercial real estate portfolios.
As a result, banks are having to set aside more money for potential loan losses.
Washington Mutual revealed on Tuesday that it had to set aside approximately $3.5 billion in loan loss provisions. Goldman Sachs analysts warned Friday that WaMu could see that number climb to $14 billion by year end.
Hit on all sides
The bad news isn't limited to loan portfolios, either.
When the Federal Reserve aggressively cut interest rates earlier this year, the expectation was the cuts would boost banks' net interest margins, a key measure of the profit banks make from taking in deposits and lending them back out.
But competition for customers has been so tough that banks have been unable to cut their deposit rates as much as they would have in the past.
At the same time, companies with sizeable investment banking divisions like Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Merrill Lynch are expected to be hit by a slowdown in merger and initial public offering activity. Merger advisory and equity underwriting are two key sources of lucrative fees for investment banks.
Still, bank CEOs will do their best to soothe investors, even as there are few signs that their results will improve anytime soon.
"I don't know if I would call this the end," said Malcolm Polley, chief investment officer at Stewart Capital Advisors in Pittsburgh, which owns shares of Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase.
"It would be nice to believe that would happen, but still I don't know that is necessarily going to be the case," he said.
Posted Sunday April 13, 2008
'How can a victim be a culprit overnight?
Mak Mun San
Sun, Apr 13, 2008
A medical doctor turned entrepreneur, Dr Anthony Soh had kept a low profile until the recent aborted takeover of little-known Jade Technologies catapulted him into the corporate spotlight.
The 52-year-old chief executive of Jade speaks of going through the 'most challenging' period of his life now.
'It actually is more than challenging, it is a life-awakening experience,' he told The Sunday Times in a phone interview last Friday night as he struggled to describe the past few weeks.
Just a month ago, investors were lauding him as the latest hotshot corporate figure who, soon after his entrance in Jade last May, propelled the company's shares to heady heights.
Today, his role in the failed takeover of Jade is being questioned.
On April 5, he had to pull the plug on his proposed buyout because he had no funds to do the deal after losing Jade shares he had pledged. Investors who have seen the shares plunge 70 per cent are screaming blue murder, wondering if there is more to Dr Soh's withdrawal than meets the eye.
OCBC Bank, which advised Dr Soh, is hinting that it may have been misled and has made a report to the Commercial Affairs Department (CAD).
So how did a doctor turned businessman turned venture capitalist turned corporate figure wind up in this whirlwind of trouble?
The eldest son of a bus driver and a hospital amah, Dr Soh took a path many bright youngsters in his cohort embarked on. He attended Catholic High School and went on to National Junior College and medical school at the then-University of Singapore.
While training at the Singapore General Hospital, he met Jane, a nurse, and they married soon after he qualified. He spent the following years as a general practitioner.
But being a GP was a 'tiring, hectic life', he recalled. 'I had many friends, GPs, who told me that they regretted they did not leave until it was too late. I thought that business would give more diversity to my life.'
Being 'strongly admonished' by the Singapore Medical Council in 1992 for his handling of a patient who later died of malaria probably did not help. He gave up his practising certificate only a few years ago.
In 1992, at the age of 37, he quit being a GP, but he did not quit the medical field.
He had started a company looking at developing either a telemonitor which could monitor heart rates from a distance or a non-invasive diabetic device which would allow patients to test their blood sugar without breaking the skin.
He managed to sell this business off for a couple of million dollars.
Dr Soh had a passion for the Internet and got a job as a consultant to home-grown Pacific Internet (PacNet) in 1994, where he created content for medical online sites.
He helped PacNet start up Doctors Online which offered medical information and professional services via the Net. Some time later, PacNet wanted to concentrate solely on being an Internet service provider, so Dr Soh and his team continued with this loss-making content business separately.
'I was known as the first Internet doctor,' he said. In 1998, the now renamed business - Health Online - won an Innovative IT Service Award given by the National Computer Board. It connected doctors via the Internet, offering them access to online medical resources such as medical journals.
The business was successful enough for French company Havas Medimedia to buy it over in 1996. Havas, as is common with many buyouts, required Dr Soh to stay on for three years.
But he welcomed the experience. After all, he was getting to know about the nuts and bolts of business. 'I had a lot of responsibility for profits. I was the regional managing director, and represented 14 countries.'
He later joined a listed Hong Kong company dealing in medical services. He travelled to China and Taiwan, handling mergers and acquisitions such as buying homes for the aged.
In 1999, he was headhunted and returned to Singapore to lead a biomedical fund launched by United Overseas Bank, which would invest in companies in the biomedical field, then a relatively new area for Singapore.
'People were surprised to find a doctor in the bank. But while I was doing financial work, we were investing in companies which made medical devices, for example, or drug companies, so that was related to the medical field.'
He is proud to say: 'I picked up my financial knowledge along the way. It wasn't easy but I was passionate about what I was doing. When I was in the Internet business, there were people with master's in IT working for me. When I was at the bank, there were also CFAs (certified financial analysts) in my team.'
He feels that he did not do too badly; six investments were sold off at a good profit, including China Medstar which listed on London's Alternative Investment board and Cord-life on the Australian Stock Exchange.
Always ahead of the curve, he entered the venture capital world - investing in start-ups and helping them list - in 2002 when it was taking off.
A contact from Indonesia was willing to put in $1 million. Dr Soh and his friends eventually raised about $20 million and this became Asia Pacific Venture Capital, he said. This entity identified China companies which could go public.
As the initial public offering (IPO) market boomed, he branched out to offer asset management and IPO advisory services.
But it was not that easy to make money. More IPO houses joined the market and there were also more laws. 'We would get an IPO fee of between $300,000 and $400,000 but we had to spend a few years working on the project. That was when I thought investments including investing in listed companies would bring in better returns.'
Jade, a precision engineering firm, was a unit of a US company and had listed on Sesdaq in 1997. Through its US parent, it had become an indirect unit of US banking giant Citigroup.
When Citigroup wanted to exit, Dr Soh bought into it and became its group president. Investors were cheered, hoping the struggling company would get a new lease of life.
Dr Soh has since taken stakes in two other listed companies. Last October, he became the largest shareholder in computer game developer Netelusion. He is also a significant shareholder in a loss-making technology company, Ei-Nets, now known as E3 Holdings, with plans to transform it into a China real estate player.
Of the mess he is now staring at, he said: 'How can a victim be a culprit overnight? When you are successful, you are king. When something goes wrong, people will turn around and say you are the culprit.'
He added: 'Maybe I was running too fast. Could I have spent more time grooming the first company?'
Some four years ago, when Dr Soh, who was then running his venture capital fund, met this reporter, he came across as a dynamic personality who wanted to expand his business. His office at International Plaza was a hive of activity.
Someone who worked with him several years ago recalled that Dr Soh struck him as a 'down to earth and energetic professional'. However, a banker said he did not seem cut out to be a wheeler-dealer type.
Some of the negative aspects of the Jade deal have echoes of the past. There was a failed attempt to get financing to buy a Bali bank in 2005, although Dr Soh said that he withdrew from the deal as it did not fit his criteria.
Dr Soh said his wife - who works in a health-care business he founded - and two grown-up children have been extremely supportive.
'They have lived with me for more than 30 years. I cannot have changed my character in the space of two months,' he said.
As the CAD and the Securities Industry Council, the enforcer of the takeover code, scrutinise the deal and angry investors wait for the outcome, the staunch Christian who attends the Victory Family Centre said he is also drawing strength from his faith.
'Last year, I gave $100,000 to a church in Nigeria. The poor pastor was desperate then because no one wanted to donate. People hear Nigeria, they think it is a scam,' he said. 'Now, thousands of miles away, people are praying for me. I was told that 2,000 people fasted overnight. They said that they will storm heaven with their prayers to ensure that justice is done.'
Posted Sunday April 13, 2008
王冠一： 賊 喊 捉 賊 救 市 無 方
2008年04月14日（星期一）
七 國 集 團 （ G7 ） 會 議 結 束 ， 由 於 由 次 按 風 暴 所 引 發 的 信 貸 危 機 在 近 月 不 斷 深 化 ， 市 場 早 認 為 率 不 會 成 為 今 次 七 國 集 團 會 議 的 主 要 話 題 ， 反 而 如 何 防 止 信 貸 危 機 進 一 步 蔓 延 ， 才 是 眼 前 要 事 。
七 國 集 團 指 今 次 金 融 震 盪 時 間 較 預 期 長 ， 因 而 調 低 了 對 全 球 經 濟 的 展 望 ， 坦 言 全 球 經 濟 前 景 欠 明 朗 ， 國 際 金 融 體 系 將 面 臨 更 多 挑 戰 。 與 會 各 國 又 訂 出 一 個 加 強 資 本 市 場 監 管 的 百 日 計 劃 ， 呼 籲 監 管 機 構 修 訂 流 動 性 風 險 管 理 條 例 ， 以 改 善 非 資 產 負 債 表 （ off-balance sheet ） 項 目 的 會 計 準 則 ， 並 為 這 些 資 產 如 何 公 平 估 值 提 供 指 引 。 聲 明 同 時 呼 籲 盡 快 實 行 經 濟 穩 定 論 壇 （ Financial Stability Forum ， FSF ） 之 前 提 出 的 65 項 建 議 ， 以 增 加 透 明 度 ， 加 強 銀 行 監 管 機 構 國 際 間 的 合 作 。
七 國 集 團 這 個 富 人 俱 樂 部 早 已 淪 為 無 牙 老 虎 ， 原 因 是 各 國 均 重 本 身 國 家 的 利 益 ， 各 懷 鬼 胎 ， 很 難 有 一 致 的 立 場 。 不 過 今 次 信 貸 危 機 隨 時 會 演 變 成 為 一 場 全 球 衰 退 噩 夢 ， 水 已 浸 至 眼 眉 ， 相 信 各 國 均 希 望 合 演 一 場 好 戲 去 化 解 危 機 。 可 惜 這 個 次 按 黑 洞 深 不 見 底 ， 聲 明 中 所 提 建 議 ， 最 多 只 能 堵 塞 漏 洞 ， 防 止 日 後 同 類 危 機 重 演 ， 對 化 解 今 次 危 機 並 無 實 質 效 用 。
華 爾 街 傷 人 自 殘
事 實 上 ， 今 次 危 機 源 頭 雖 然 是 美 國 樓 市 泡 沫 爆 破 ， 但 那 班 華 爾 街 有 創 意 之 士 把 濫 批 濫 借 的 按 揭 包 裝 成 為 結 構 性 產 品 ， 再 把 這 一 批 又 一 批 的 糖 衣 毒 藥 向 外 兜 售 ， 自 己 肚 滿 腸 肥 之 餘 ， 卻 播 下 信 貸 緊 縮 的 種 籽 ， 才 是 風 暴 沒 完 沒 了 ， 禍 延 全 球 的 真 正 原 因 。
華 爾 街 靠 賣 「 丸 仔 」 發 達 ， 最 終 有 如 練 七 傷 拳 般 「 傷 人 兼 自 殘 」 ， 如 今 以 美 國 為 首 的 七 國 集 團 再 提 出 補 救 方 法 ， 不 無 予 人 賊 喊 捉 賊 的 感 覺 ， 再 加 上 遠 水 難 救 近 火 ， 若 單 憑 聲 明 內 容 ， 實 在 看 不 出 內 有 何 對 症 下 藥 的 良 方 。
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曾淵滄： 中 移 匯 控 Accumulator 脫 難
2008年04月14日（星期一）
美 國 經 濟 早 已 進 入 衰 退 ， 但 是 ， 當 美 國 股 市 在 上 星 期 五 下 跌 時 ， 電 視 新 聞 報 道 ， 美 國 的 分 析 員 分 析 說 投 資 者 擔 心 經 濟 衰 退 導 致 股 價 下 跌 ， 這 種 水 平 的 分 析 實 在 丟 美 國 人 的 臉 。 到 今 天 才 擔 心 美 國 經 濟 衰 退 ？ 當 然 ， 美 股 在 上 星 期 五 急 跌 的 導 火 線 是 美 國 消 費 者 信 心 跌 至 26 年 新 低 。 美 國 房 地 產 泡 沫 爆 破 、 次 按 問 題 仍 未 解 決 ， 消 費 信 心 低 落 是 意 料 中 事 ， 沒 甚 麼 值 得 大 驚 小 怪 。 實 際 上 ， 你 應 該 更 加 驚 奇 為 甚 麼 美 股 可 以 在 如 此 不 利 的 環 境 之 下 僅 僅 下 跌 10% 多 一 些 ？ 美 國 道 瓊 斯 指 數 在 去 年 的 歷 史 高 點 大 約 是 14000 點 ， 目 前 是 12300 點 ， 下 跌 幅 度 是 全 球 最 低 的 。
我 想 ， 唯 一 的 解 釋 是 升 得 高 ， 跌 得 重 。 2000 年 ， 美 國 道 瓊 斯 指 數 的 高 點 是 12000 點 ， 2007 年 的 高 點 是 14000 點 ， 上 升 幅 度 不 足 兩 成 ， 但 是 2000 年 恒 生 指 數 是 18000 點 ， 至 2007 年 ， 高 點 是 32000 點 ， 上 升 幅 度 近 8 成 ， 升 得 高 跌 得 重 是 股 市 永 遠 正 確 的 道 理 。
但 是 ， 長 期 來 說 ， 升 得 高 、 跌 得 重 的 股 市 仍 然 是 比 升 得 小 跌 得 輕 的 股 市 更 有 利 。 道 理 很 簡 單 ， 假 設 有 兩 隻 股 票 ， 目 前 價 格 都 是 100 元 ， A 股 之 後 上 升 至 200 元 ， 然 後 調 整 升 幅 的 6 成 跌 至 140 元 ， 另 一 隻 股 票 B 股 上 升 至 120 元 ， 僅 調 整 升 幅 的 1 成 ， 跌 至 118 元 ， 表 面 看 來 ， 跌 幅 較 小 ， 但 是 ， 最 後 A 股 是 140 元 而 B 股 則 是 118 元 ， 持 有 A 股 仍 然 比 持 有 B 股 強 。
道 指 跌 幅 全 球 最 低
上 星 期 五 ， 中 移 動 （ 941 ） 股 價 回 升 至 130 元 ， 與 匯 控 （ 005 ） 股 價 相 若 ， 這 兩 隻 股 都 是 恒 指 的 重 磅 股 ， 佔 比 率 不 輕 ， 這 兩 隻 股 去 年 的 高 位 都 是 150 多 元 ， 回 升 至 130 元 表 示 多 數 的 Accumulator 已 經 脫 難 。 一 般 上 ， 買 Accumulator 都 有 一 定 的 折 讓 ， 約 15% 至 20% 不 等 。 最 近 ， 聽 朋 友 說 有 銀 行 提 供 高 達 40% 折 讓 的 Accumulator ， 不 過 ， 不 是 與 一 隻 股 票 掛 釣 ， 而 是 三 隻 股 ， 任 何 一 隻 跌 40% 就 得 接 貨 。 恒 指 中 兩 隻 重 磅 股 的 Accumulator 能 脫 難 是 很 重 要 的 訊 息 ， 因 為 從 此 來 自 匯 控 與 中 移 動 的 斬 倉 貨 會 大 幅 減 少 ， 保 守 的 Accumulator 合 同 持 有 者 可 以 在 這 兩 隻 股 升 至 130 元 的 時 候 另 作 淡 倉 的 對 沖 ， 從 此 安 枕 無 憂 。
中 移 動 與 匯 控 都 是 我 的 愛 股 ， 這 兩 隻 股 能 夠 快 速 反 彈 ， 真 高 興 ， 因 為 我 在 這 場 股 災 中 這 兩 隻 股 一 股 也 沒 賣 。
Posted Monday April 14, 2008
Foreign interest in China property
By Angie Ng
April 14, 2008
The skylines in many Chinese cities have undergone major changes with numerous new landmarks in the past decade. Many foreign developers, including Singapore's CapitaLand Ltd, are making a beeline for China
CHINA, a nation of 660 cities, offers immense opportunities for real estate developers and investors to partake in the country's rapid development and growing prominence as a major global power.
Rapid commercialisation and privatisation of China's real estate have contributed to massive development activities and growth in the property sector.
As the people's income level and standard of living continue to improve, owner-occupier demand will further drive growth in the residential and commercial property sectors.
Although the market is still robust with good upside and yield potential, the Chinese government looks set to adopt further austerity measures to prevent the possibility of an overheated property market.
Measures to curb speculative investment in real estate were introduced in 2005, followed by guidelines to control demand and supply of property in 2006. Last year, various measures to control money supply and interest rates were launched to curb liquidity.
With the tightening measures, developers with deep pockets and strong credentials are looking forward to perform even better in the coming years.
Singapore's CapitaLand Ltd, which is one of the biggest foreign developers in China, continues to see substantial prospects in China.
“The market is very deep, and having developed projects mostly in the gateway cities of Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, we are now moving into the second- and third-tier cities. CapitaLand has projects on a broad property front - from residential and retail to service residences and integrated commercial projects,” CapitaLand (China) Investment Co Ltd deputy chief executive officer Jason Leow told StarBiz in Shanghai recently.
“China's real estate demand at 200 million sq m a year is humongous by any standard. Although the market will be faced with correction along the way, we are confident that demand for a broad type of property will remain strong over the next five to 10 years,” he added.
Leow said that given the tighter credit environment, foreign capital control and weaker sentiments, the market was currently going through some short-term consolidation.
“However, market fundamentals remained strong with real demand driven by urbanisation, strong economic growth and rising income.
“The measures taken by the Government in recent years are to ensure sustainable development of China's property market. Opportunities will emerge for well capitalised companies with proven track record and onshore operating platform,” Leow added. Economists and fund managers who participated in a panel discussion at the recent Third Annual Real Estate Investment World China 2008 Conference in Pudong, Shanghai, recently concurred that China's property market would continue to grow and the US sub-prime mortgage woes would not adversely impact China's economy and its property sector.
According to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets chief China strategist, Andy Rothman, China would not encounter a mortgage loan problem like the US “as the Chinese property buyers are well known for paying in cash and there are no fancy loans such as those in the US.”
“In the last five to seven years, the people's rising income and wealth have supported a robust property sector. There has been much wealth creation from the rapid economic growth that has been used for property investment,” he said.
Rothman said that to cushion against a potential hard landing in the event of a recession in the US, the Chinese government had made huge allocation for a social safety net, including social security, education and welfare, for the people.
Citic Ka Wah Bank Hong Kong chief economist and strategist Dr Liao Qun said the biggest challenge for the Chinese government was to cool down the economy and ensure a soft landing should a global slowdown happen.
“China's economy will grow at 8% to 9% this year and 9% to 10% next year. In the absence of any macroeconomic control, the economy will grow at 15% per annum.
“In my opinion, rather than further raising interest rates to curb spending, it is of the utmost importance to manage inflation and adopt measures to raise food supply,” Liao added.
On the long-term outlook for property investors in China and the sustainability of the market boom, Poly Real Estate Group general manager Song Guangju said industry players were optimistic of the future potential of China's market.
“The market is massive and offer substantial opportunities in a broad range of property products. Developers need to spread their projects in the various Tier 1, 2 and 3 cities to balance out any potential risks in the event of a slowdown,” he said.
In the past 17 years, the Hong Kong-based Poly Real Estate has moved its focus to mainland China projects and has completed various projects, including townhouses and villas, and luxury apartments in various cities.
Property analysts said China's office sector would stay as one of the star performers going forward.
The completion of the Shanghai World Financial Centre - one of the world's tallest buildings – by mid-2008 will mark the start of the second office supply boom in Shanghai. The first one was from 1996 to 2001.
Cities across China are trying to copy the Pudong model in creating new central business districts.
ZY Real Estate associate June Wang said that in the medium term, office demand would continue on an upward trend in major Tier 2 commercial hubs such as Ningbo, Hangzhou and Chengdu, as companies eagerly try to tap into China's growing domestic market.
“Good quality office space is recording significant rental premiums and attracting prestigious tenants,” she said.
Posted Monday April 14, 2008
Dollar may get boost as G7 finance ministers threaten to intervene
Gary Duncan Economics Editor
The embattled dollar may claw back some of its recent sharp losses after the Group of Seven leading economies fired a surprise weekend warning shot at foreign exchanges over their assault on the greenback.
In the first significant shift in their stance on exchange rates for at least four years, the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors used a big change in their usual boilerplate language on currencies to warn markets that the dollar should not be seen as a “one-way bet”.
“Since our last meeting there have been sharp fluctuations in leading currencies and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability,” the G7 said in its communiqué, before adding its usual pledge to monitor exchange markets closely, and co-operate as appropriate.
The change in language carried the implied threat that G7 central banks and governments could wade into markets to punish speculators should volatile currency moves they see as excessive persist.
The shift was seen as a concession by Washington to eurozone governments, which have voiced growing dismay over the relentless rise in the euro to record levels triggered by the plunge in the dollar's value.
Since early this year the euro has soared nearly 10 per cent against its US rival to levels above $1.59, while the dollar has also sunk nearly 11 per cent against the Japanese yen.
Currency strategists said that the G7's move was likely to give a modest boost to the dollar and weaken the euro in the short term. Eurozone policymakers were pleased with the shift in G7 stance. “This change shows a concern not seen for years,” Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, the Italian Finance Minister, said.
An 86-year-old man went to his doctor for his quarterly check-up...
The doctor asked him how he was feeling, and the 86-year-old said, 'Things are great and I've never felt better. I now have a 20 year-old bride who is pregnant with my child.'
'So what do you think about that Doc?'
The doctor considered his question for a minute and then began to tell a story.
'I have an older friend, much like you, who is an avid hunter and never misses a season.'
'One day he was setting off to go hunting. In a bit of a hurry, he accidentally picked up his walking cane instead of his gun.'
'As he neared a lake, he came across a very large male beaver sitting at the water's edge. He realized he'd left his gun at home and so he couldn't shoot the magnificent creature. Out of habit he raised his cane, aimed it at the animal as if it was his favorite hunting rifle and went 'bang, bang'.'
'Miraculously, two shots rang out and the beaver fell over dead. Now, what do you think of that?' asked the doctor.
The 86-year-old said, 'Logic would strongly suggest that somebody else pumped a couple of rounds into that beaver.'
The doctor replied, 'My point exactly.'
Posted Tuesday April 15, 2008
Inside the US subprime crisis
01 April 2008
The subprime mortgage crisis in the US is being felt deeply by those in the business of selling homes.
With property sales dipping across the country, property agents are feeling the pinch.
Adam B. Salem is a property agent in the state of Virginia who has a lot of clients, many of them immigrants, who took out subprime loans they can't re-pay.
He tells his story in his own words.
Posted Tuesday April 15, 2008
Subprime US Banking Financial Crisis Explained Part 1
A 3 lesson series on the background of the subprime US Banking Financial Crisis market and how the problems we are experiencing today arose. Relevant to traders and investors of the stock market, futures market, and forex market.
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Subprime US Banking Financial Crisis Explained Simply Part 2
The 2nd lesson in a 3 part series examining the sub prime mortgage US Banking crisis and how this has affected the economy and different financial institutions around the world.
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Subprime US Banking Financial Crisis Explained Part 3
The 3rd and final lesson in a series on the subprime mortgage US Banking financial crisis explained.
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
王冠一： 國 際 視 野
2008年04月15日（星期二）
市 場 反 智 造 淡 小 心美 國 進 入 業 績 公 佈 期 ， 上 周 美 鋁 和 通 用 電 氣 的 首 季 業 績 均 較 預 期 遜 色 ， 後 者 更 成 為 美 股 道 指 上 周 五 急 瀉 256 點 的 元 凶 之 一 （ 另 一 元 凶 是 消 費 者 信 心 急 挫 至 26 年 新 低 ） 。 本 周 好 戲 連 場 ， 因 為 多 家 金 融 大 行 將 陸 續 上 演 一 幕 幕 「 醜 婦 見 家 翁 」 。
銀 行 業 績 本 來 由 道 富 和 貝 爾 斯 登 於 今 晚 打 頭 陣 ， 但 被 原 定 於 周 五 公 佈 業 績 的 美 國 第 四 大 銀 行 Wachovia 搶 飲 頭 啖 湯 ， 提 前 昨 日 公 佈 業 績 ， 並 一 併 發 放 再 引 入 新 資 金 消 息 。
Wachovia 首 季 虧 損 3.93 億 美 元 ， 每 股 蝕 20 美 仙 ， 與 分 析 家 預 估 的 每 股 賺 40 美 仙 南 轅 北 轍 ， 令 市 場 意 外 ， 亦 是 該 銀 行 自 2001 年 以 來 首 度 見 紅 。 Wachovia 於 兩 個 月 前 才 透 過 發 行 優 先 股 集 資 35 億 美 元 ， 今 次 將 再 度 集 資 最 多 70 億 美 元 ， 反 映 財 政 狀 況 嚴 峻 ， 而 淪 落 至 今 日 田 地 ， 主 要 是 兩 年 前 樓 市 高 期 時 斥 資 246 億 美 元 收 購 加 州 房 貸 在 公 司 Golden West ， 以 致 「 一 子 錯 ， 滿 盤 皆 落 索 」 。
銀 行 業 難 寄 厚 望
加 州 是 今 次 美 國 樓 市 衰 退 的 重 災 區 之 一 ， Golden West 承 造 的 大 部 份 是 可 調 息 按 揭 （ Adjustable Rate Mortgage ， ARM ） ， Golden West 名 不 副 實 ， 由 黃 金 變 石 頭 ， Wachovia 亦 險 些 兒 歸 西 。
Wachovia 的 業 績 落 筆 打 三 更 ， 其 他 銀 行 亦 難 寄 厚 望 。 市 場 預 料 摩 通 盈 利 會 倒 退 ， 由 去 年 第 四 季 每 股 賺 86 美 仙 減 少 至 72 美 仙 ； 美 林 每 股 虧 損 會 由 去 年 勁 蝕 12.57 美 元 縮 減 至 1.97 美 元 ； 花 旗 每 股 虧 損 亦 會 由 1.99 美 元 縮 減 至 0.93 美 元 。
Wachovia 業 績 差 ， 勢 拖 累 美 股 昨 晚 表 現 ， 不 過 若 其 他 銀 行 業 績 能 符 合 預 期 ， 則 美 股 仍 不 宜 過 淡 ， 因 市 場 經 常 炒 反 智 ， 提 防 虧 損 減 少 會 被 作 好 消 息 炒 ， 把 淡 友 殺 至 一 頸 血 。
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曾淵滄： 台灣股市進入新牛市
昨 日 恒 指 在 美 股 、 日 股 、 內 地 股 市 齊 齊 狂 跌 的 壓 力 之 下 ， 下 跌 856 點 ， 是 很 正 常 的 。 24000 點 的 位 置 也 守 不 住 ， 恒 指 收 市 為 23811 點 。
內 地 股 民 近 來 一 直 盼 望 中 央 救 市 ， 曾 經 一 度 有 過 反 彈 ， 因 此 香 港 也 有 人 炒 起 A50 （ 2823 ） 基 金 ， 可 是 內 地 股 民 等 了 一 天 又 一 天 ， 中 央 就 是 沒 有 救 市 的 表 示 ， 是 不 是 這 些 股 民 一 廂 情 願 的 以 為 中 央 會 救 市 ？
等 呀 等 ， 股 民 永 遠 是 缺 乏 耐 性 ， 失 去 耐 性 的 結 果 自 然 是 拋 售 手 上 的 股 票 ， 拋 售 這 個 中 央 救 市 的 期 望 給 另 一 個 股 民 。 昨 日 內 地 股 市 可 說 是 亞 太 區 跌 得 最 慘 的 ， 上 海 綜 合 指 數 收 市 報 3296 點 ， 下 跌 5.62% ， 與 去 年 高 位 比 較 ， 已 經 下 跌 近 50% ， 底 在 那 裏 ？ 沒 人 知 道 。
昨 日 亞 太 區 股 市 表 現 最 好 的 就 是 台 股 ， 當 然 ， 在 整 個 亞 太 區 股 市 一 片 愁 雲 慘 霧 的 情 況 之 下 ， 台 股 也 下 跌 ， 台 灣 加 權 指 數 下 跌 0.19% ， 但 是 整 體 而 言 ， 我 很 有 信 心 台 灣 股 市 正 進 入 一 場 新 牛 市 。 我 現 在 正 在 向 銀 行 打 聽 有 甚 麼 好 的 台 灣 基 金 值 得 買 ， 台 灣 股 市 也 是 一 個 相 當 封 閉 的 股 市 ， 外 人 不 容 易 直 接 投 資 ， 得 借 助 基 金 。
香 港 銀 行 業 有 優 勢
昨 日 大 市 大 跌 ， 但 是 兩 岸 三 通 概 念 股 表 現 仍 然 不 錯 ， 台 資 銀 行 富 邦 （ 636 ） 股 價 更 是 逆 市 狂 升 18% ， 創 上 市 以 來 新 高 價 。
下 星 期 一 至 星 期 三 ， 富 邦 銀 行 邀 請 我 到 台 灣 參 加 三 場 投 資 研 討 會 ， 擔 任 嘉 賓 之 一 。 三 場 投 資 研 討 會 分 別 在 台 北 、 台 中 及 高 雄 舉 行 ， 富 邦 主 辦 投 資 研 討 會 也 是 為 了 推 介 香 港 股 市 。 鼓 勵 台 灣 投 資 者 到 香 港 投 資 ， 我 更 希 望 看 到 富 邦 在 香 港 主 辦 台 灣 股 市 投 資 研 討 會 ， 我 就 當 觀 眾 。
馬 英 九 開 記 者 會 ， 很 直 接 地 告 訴 香 港 記 者 ， 兩 岸 三 通 之 後 ， 香 港 就 失 去 了 中 介 城 市 的 角 色 。
兩 岸 不 通 ， 香 港 漁 人 得 利 ， 但 是 ， 為 了 兩 岸 交 流 與 統 一 大 業 ， 香 港 人 也 沒 有 理 由 反 對 兩 岸 三 通 。 今 後 ， 香 港 在 兩 岸 三 通 之 後 該 扮 演 甚 麼 角 色 ？
向 台 資 介 紹 內 地 的 投 資 環 境 ？ 台 資 早 已 到 內 地 投 資 ， 長 三 角 住 有 100 萬 台 商 及 其 家 屬 ， 珠 三 角 住 有 50 萬 台 商 及 其 家 屬 ， 台 商 不 需 要 香 港 的 協 助 。
不 過 ， 根 據 我 很 有 限 的 認 識 ， 台 灣 的 銀 行 業 相 對 的 還 是 落 後 於 香 港 ， 談 不 上 國 際 水 平 ， 這 是 因 為 台 灣 金 融 業 長 期 不 開 放 的 結 果 。 馬 英 九 當 政 後 ， 希 望 會 帶 領 台 灣 金 融 業 走 向 世 界 ， 如 此 這 般 ， 香 港 的 銀 行 界 就 有 許 多 機 會 投 資 台 灣 。 台 灣 的 銀 行 至 今 仍 是 純 中 文 操 作 ， 用 紅 印 泥 的 印 章 代 替 簽 名 ， 很 多 年 前 香 港 的 華 資 銀 行 也 是 如 此 。
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
全球食品价格料再涨20%
■本報記者：荊才
2008年04月13日
通脹高企，全球大米價格高漲正演變成政治議題，全球性機構已開始草擬方案以應對食品價格過高問題，預計本周各國財長在華盛頓召開會議時將討論食品價格過高議題。在截至1月尾的一年內，全球食品價格上漲了35%。聯合國糧農組織警告，短期內食品價格將繼續維持高位，供應短缺亦將持續，個別比較貧窮的國家可能因食品而發生暴亂。專家分析指，雖然各國將努力增加食品供應，但全球範圍內正在發生朝向高食品價格的結構性變化，且這種趨勢很難逆轉，全球糧價料再漲2成。
本周內地將公布首季宏觀經濟數據，全球食品價格難降消息令人更擔憂內地和本港未來通脹再走高。
聯合國下屬的國際農業發展基金總裁Lennart Bage表示，各國將努力增加食品供應，但全球範圍內正在發生朝向高食品價格的結構性變化，而且這種趨勢很難逆轉。
料4至6年內不回落
巴西前農業部長羅德里格斯10日稱，全球食品價格在4至6年內不會回落，此後全球糧食產量才會趕上來自新興國家的新需求。
聯合國的記錄顯示，食品價格自02年開始上漲，最初漲勢緩慢，但現已加速。食品價格較02年已上漲65%。僅去年全球乳製品價格就上漲近80%，穀物價格上漲42%。
米價今年已漲價45%
芝加哥商品交易所的大米期貨今年內已大幅漲價45%，自01年以來已漲5倍，而小麥價格亦創下28年來最高。僅今年頭2個月，世界糧食價格就上漲了9%。
北京大學中國經濟研究中心教授盧鋒指，如果假定新一輪糧價上漲能夠達到上一輪1995年的高峰，那麼從時間序列數據看，3種穀物價格還有近20%至25%上漲空間，「據現在情況看，我寧願預測未來實際糧價上漲空間只有2成左右」。
全球大米庫存20年最低
聯合國糧農組織表示，去年全球大米產量達到了6億餘噸，連續2年保持增長，但由於產量的增長低於人口增長，人均大米產量仍在下降。
糧農組織預測今年全球稻米產量將達到6.613億噸，比去年增加近1,200萬噸或1.8%，但對穀物的需求卻上升2.6%，較10年來的平均水平高1.6個百分點，可見全球大米產不足需的情況仍然存在。
美國農業部最新發布的數據顯示，全球大米庫存量已跌至7,520萬噸，創下80年代以來的最低，僅為本世紀初的一半。
各國自保 限制出口
由於糧食供應緊張是全球性的，許多國家紛紛採取措施自保。3月28日，越南宣布今年大米的出口量將大減22%，印度也公布將出口大米的最低價格大幅調高近5成。越南和印度是全球第二和第三大大米出口國，它們大幅削減大米出口量，導致全球大米供給減少了1/3。隨後，柬埔寨和埃及也發布了大米出口禁令。
這加劇了糧食供應緊張的狀況。聯合國糧食農業組織指出，今年大米的全球交易量約為2,990萬噸，全球出口量由於出口限制政策，將比去年下降3.5%。
貧窮國缺糧紛爆暴亂
聯合國糧食計劃署的主管官員8日表示，由於全球飆升的食品價格，布基納法索、喀麥隆、埃及、印尼、象牙海岸、毛里塔尼亞、莫桑比克和塞內加爾都先後發生騷動或暴亂。
世銀行長佐利克7日指出，目前的高糧價將不會是短期現象，很可能會持續數年。他警告，由於糧食和能源價格達到連續6年來的最高點，墨西哥、也門等33個國家可能面臨「社會動蕩」。
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
心语传真情，剎那成永恒...
错过日出可以等待，
错过美景可以再来，
错过流星可以期待，
错过朋友只有无奈，
当天空出现彩虹时，
是远方的我在默默的祝福你！
愿你每天快乐！
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
A股两月跌34% 内地股民信心失
www.cnfol.com
■本报上海新闻中心记者唐湛嫣2008年04月15日电
──信心调查：通胀加息困扰 本季大市持续震荡
在美股急挫、预期通胀高企及加息等利淡消息打击下，今日内地股市再大泻逾5%，上证综指跌破3300点，大跌5.62％，在短短2个月内跌幅超过34%，过去一年的升幅基本已付之东流，近10万亿元的市值人间蒸发。内地股民信心大跌，对股市日益悲观。根据上海财经大学应用统计研究中心编制的2008年第一季度上海财经大学上海市投资者信心指数为106.8点，较上一个季度下降了6.4点。有44.3%的受访个人投资者认为，未来3个月内沪深股市还将持续震荡。
上海财经大学应用统计研究中心主任徐国祥教授认为，一季度上海投资者信心有所下降主要是受美国经济增长放缓、物价涨幅居高不下、雪灾以及股市走弱等诸多因素影响，但从整体上看，上海的经济仍然处于稳步增长的态势，上海的投资环境较好。
下跌购入信心指数较上季升
不过，值得注意的是，在当前动荡的市场中，很多的机构投资者和个人投资者都认为，大盘将进入底线，本季度的机构投资者和个人投资者的下跌购入信心指数都分别比上个季度上升了19.8点和3.3点。
而受CPI走高、美元疲软等因素影响，有8%和25.6%的企业家认为，自己企业的生产力水平在未来的半年里将比现在高得多或者比现在稍高，这比上一个季度分别下降了5.4和27.2个百分点。
经济形势变化带来就业压力
徐国祥认为，今年2月份出口增速大跌，物价涨幅猛增，加剧了市场对企业利润增长的担忧和上市公司利润增长减速的预期。近日发出的《国务院2008年工作要点》首次提出要防止出现经济下滑，同时责令央行、金融监管机构等促进股票市场稳定健康发展。政府要员也强调防止市场大起大落。证监会连续7周批发新基金，但新基金销路与去年不可同日而语，且效果也杯水车薪。从当前通胀的趋势看，政策难以很快放松，所以企业家对于企业预期发展信心下降也属正常。
资本市场的低迷、通胀的压力、以及随着国家实行从紧的货币政策和对经济增速的宏观调控，消费者对就业的满意程度和预期出现了波动。2008年第一季度就业形势评价指数97.6点，比2007年第四季度下降了7.3点，就业预期指数108.2点，下降了5.5点。消费者感受到了经济形势变化带来的就业压力。尤以20到30岁的年轻人就业的预期回落最明显，超过52%的人预期未来半年就业形势「一般」，这反映出年轻人认为未来就业存在不确定性。
徐国祥认为，就业是取得收入的保证。对就业的担忧背后必然存在着对收入的担忧。加上物价上涨带来的实际收入的缩水，消费者的心理变化将会影响他们的消费决策，应该警惕由此带来的需求疲软。
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Fear of a Black Swan
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
2008年04月15日（星期二）
曹中铭：QFII的阳谋与阴谋
QFII自被“请进来”之后，已从原先的“正面形象”演变成了“畸形儿”。
监管层引进QFII的目的，意在进一步引导A股市场的价值投资理念与长期投资理念。事实上，自瑞银在A股市场下了第一单之后，便引起了整个市场较大的关注。而QFII抄了A股市场历史性的大底，更给市场一种“刮目相看”的感觉。
但QFII也有值得“大书特书”的地方。随着近两年大牛市行情的产生，其阴险的一面便暴露无遗。利用自身的影响力，QFII以一些所谓的投资报告的名义，或诋毁唱空或不失时机地大肆唱多，在这一切的背后，是QFII为了瓜分市场利益蛋糕的阴谋与阳谋。
经过了劣质资产剥离的国内几大商业银行，无论是从资产规模还是在竞争力方面，都显然出现了质的飞跃，这从近两年的年度报告中可以看出端倪。然而，作为研发能力非常强大的境外大投行，似乎对此视而不见，在“关键”时刻扮演了不光彩的角色。
最有名的当是2006年11月24日，世界著名投行瑞银发布的《中国银行股：转向谨慎》的报告。该报告大幅调低了国内商业银行股的估值，并引起香港市场和国内市场银行股的一次“小地震”。当天，包括工行、中行等国内银行股均几乎低开低走。然而仅仅只过了几个月，亦即去年的1月5日，瑞银集团又大幅上调银行股估值的报告。在国内银行股处于低位时唱空，高位时却反向唱多，这瑞银到底安的是什么心不言而喻。
去年上半年，低价股、题材股行情风起云涌，而机构投资者重仓的蓝筹股则基本没有表现的机会，其中就包括QFII。显然，在股指冲击4335点的这波行情中，QFII与国内基金一样均感到郁闷。然而，在境外成熟市场浸淫了多年“市场化”的QFII，竟公然呼吁监管部门出手打压。印花税政策调整的结果是，QFII又一次抄了大底，而来自相关的统计数据则显示，QFII在5800点一线逐步实现了减仓，也再一次满载而归。
而自去年股指见高6124点进行调整之后，QFII又纷纷“跳”了出来，其目的无非还是打压市场。如国际投行高盛发表报告预计，中国A股市场2008年的回报率为负11.3%。而在3月份A股跌破4000点时，瑞信中国研究部主管陈昌华就表示A股是用1年时间走完了5年牛市。意即A股市场估值太高，透支严重，大幅调整不可避免。花旗集团中国研究部也发布报告称，鉴于持股价值缩减对公司利润的影响，中国股市可能会再跌21%。国际投行其时唱空A股，其司马昭之心，昭然若揭。
有意思的是，境外投行唱空却不做空。在股指处于3500点以下时，悄然抄底的并非少数。来自媒体的报道称，在上周某个交易日，中金公司一营业部成交出现异动，金额高达30亿元，主要是QFII席位买入所致。而种种迹象亦显示，诸多QFII都在悄悄地买入A股。
QFII买卖股票其实并不是什么“新闻”了。但国际投行在“敏感”时刻又步调一致地唱起来，特别是在国家外汇管理局相关负责人“松绑”QFII的言论刚刚落地之际，其阳谋又有谁不知？
事实上，QFII的阳谋论或阴谋论并非目前才出现的。资本市场“利”字当头，为了自身利益的最大化是参与其中的投资者的目标，但如果常常利用其国际大投行的地位与影响力欲左右A股市场的走势，笔者以为至少有“国际黑嘴”的嫌疑，而类似事件却在A股市场中真实地发生着，并且不止一次。
阳谋也好，阴谋也好，国内基金等机构投资者以及监管层避免成为其“调控”的工具才是至关重要的。去年调整印花税曾被认为是国际投行的一次胜利，真假不论，中小投资者遭受了重大损失，QFII再次抄底却是不争的事实。笔者以为，对于QFII的那些所谓“报告”及言论，国内机构及监管层多留个心眼才对，而决不能让A股市场的国内投资者成为其“黑嘴”的牺牲品。
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曹中铭：权证创设“改革”避重就轻
关于权证问题，市场上有许多议论。而关于券商创设股改权证，笔者曾经撰文指出其是赤裸裸的“抢劫”行为。尽管投资者及业内人士都发表了诸多真知灼见，但直到目前为止，对券商创设权证的问题，监管层并没有实质性的改进措施。
曾经有深受权证创设之害的几位投资者对话证监会与上交所的相关人员，显然，来自监管层最初的答复无法让市场满意。事实上，权证创设已不仅仅只关系到参与其中的投资者的权益问题，关系到能否真正做到保护中小投资者的利益问题，更关系到整个证券市场的公平问题。
在几位投资者不懈坚持及努力下，上交所该相关负责人士表示散户们部分建议已经被采纳，将对创设制度进行部分调整：创设南航认沽需提提前一个交易日公告；创设券商不得在二级市场上买卖创设的权证。
上交所采纳散户的建设议，是投资者的一个小小的胜利，但遗憾的是，其根本没有触及到问题的实质。亦即股改权证是否应该被创设？
股改权证是上市公司启动股改时，为了少支付对价甚至是不支付任何对价，而只以权证“无偿”派发方式“支付”股改对价。显然，其中上市公司的大股东成为最大的赢家，而中小投资者在一种无奈的情形下只能被动地接受。尽管如此，券商创设权证的出现，将此种不公平放大了。
有资料显示，2007年国内共计有26家券商创设了权证，合计创设数量高达165.99亿份，同时也注销了63.01亿份创设出的权证。这26家券商在权证创设这块业务上共计获利金额高达263亿元。其中，中信证券就从权证创设上获利数十亿元。
在资本市场中，这些权证并不创造任何价值。也就是说，券商创设盈利的部分，其实就是其它投资者亏损的，这还不包括参与权证交易所产生的费用，如果再加上在其它权证上的亏损，亦即投资者的损失远远超过上述数据。
这无疑不是个小数目！权证在时隔九年之后重返市场，某些上市公司大股东是赢家，券商创设同样是赢家，只有中小投资者才是其埋单者。作为一个金融衍生品种，权证没有为中小投资者带来收益，却成为利益输送的工具。而且，体现在权证交易上的，是大鱼吃小鱼，大资金“吃”小资金的现象。
上交年虽然采纳了投资者的部分建议，但避重就轻的迹象非常明显。况且，其对于权证交易的操纵价格现象没有起到很好的监管作用。那么，退一步讲，权证的推出，除了加重了投资者的损失之外，到底有什么意义呢？难道真的是为了活跃市场的气氛？
与上交所相对应的，深交所的股改权证就没有创设。由此亦可以看出，上交所的“创新”精神，为自身谋利益的“精神”值得怀疑。
笔者以为，在权证创设问题上，敷衍投资者就是敷衍整个市场，是一种极不负责的行为。如果监管层真的是为了抑制市场的投机，那也应该在打击操纵价格上下功夫，而不是在创设上搞无谓的“创新”。毕竟，股改权证是向特定对象派发的，也只能由特定对象享有其中的相关权利，股改权证不需要也不应该由券商创设来“捣浆糊”。
另一方面，在券商进行创设时，包括原先的份额在内，常常出现权证份额超过正股份额的情形，假如真的都要行权，到时候投资者又如何能够行权？如果行权的基础不存在，那券商创设又岂不成了一次“空手套白狼”的游戏？
因此，对于券商来讲，其既然要创设，显然监管层已经为其打开了“方便之门”。也就是说，券商创设都是以获利来收尾，而中小投资者则是以亏损作为结局。赤裸裸的“抢劫”，赤裸裸的利益输送，这市场的公平又在哪里？中小投资者的利益又该由谁来保护？难道说“保护投资者特别是中小投资者的利益”总是一块“遮羞布”？
默然无语！
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Fuel Choices, Food Crises and Finger-Pointing
By ANDREW MARTIN
April 15, 2008
The idea of turning farms into fuel plants seemed, for a time, like one of the answers to high global oil prices and supply worries. That strategy seemed to reach a high point last year when Congress mandated a fivefold increase in the use of biofuels.
But now a reaction is building against policies in the United States and Europe to promote ethanol and similar fuels, with political leaders from poor countries contending that these fuels are driving up food prices and starving poor people. Biofuels are fast becoming a new flash point in global diplomacy, putting pressure on Western politicians to reconsider their policies, even as they argue that biofuels are only one factor in the seemingly inexorable rise in food prices.
In some countries, the higher prices are leading to riots, political instability and growing worries about feeding the poorest people. Food riots contributed to the dismissal of Haiti’s prime minister last week, and leaders in some other countries are nervously trying to calm anxious consumers.
At a weekend conference in Washington, finance ministers and central bankers of seven leading industrial nations called for urgent action to deal with the price spikes, and several of them demanded a reconsideration of biofuel policies adopted recently in the West.
Many specialists in food policy consider government mandates for biofuels to be ill advised, agreeing that the diversion of crops like corn into fuel production has contributed to the higher prices. But other factors have played big roles, including droughts that have limited output and rapid global economic growth that has created higher demand for food.
That growth, much faster over the last four years than the historical norm, is lifting millions of people out of destitution and giving them access to better diets. But farmers are having trouble keeping up with the surge in demand.
While there is agreement that the growth of biofuels has contributed to higher food prices, the amount is disputed.
Work by the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington suggests that biofuel production accounts for a quarter to a third of the recent increase in global commodity prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predicted late last year that biofuel production, assuming that current mandates continue, would increase food costs by 10 to 15 percent.
Ethanol supporters maintain that any increase caused by biofuels is relatively small and that energy costs and soaring demand for meat in developing countries have had a greater impact. “There’s no question that they are a factor, but they are really a smaller factor than other things that are driving up prices,” said Ron Litterer, an Iowa farmer who is president of the National Corn Growers Association.
He said biofuels were an “easy culprit to blame” because their popularity had grown so rapidly in the last two or three years.
Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, called the recent criticism of ethanol by foreign officials “a big joke.” He questioned why they were not also blaming a drought in Australia that reduced the wheat crop and the growing demand for meat in China and India.
“You make ethanol out of corn,” he said. “I bet if I set a bushel of corn in front of any of those delegates, not one of them would eat it.”
The senator’s comments reflect a political reality in Washington that despite the criticism from abroad, support for ethanol remains solid.
Representative Jim McGovern, Democrat of Massachusetts, said he had come to realize that Congress made a mistake in backing biofuels, not anticipating the impact on food costs. He said Congress needed to reconsider its policy, though he acknowledged that would be difficult.
“If there was a secret vote, there is a pretty large number of people who would like to reassess what we are doing,” he said.
According to the World Bank, global food prices have increased by 83 percent in the last three years. Rice, a staple food for nearly half the world’s population, has been a particular focus of concern in recent weeks, with spiraling prices prompting several countries to impose drastic limits on exports as they try to protect domestic consumers.
While grocery prices in the United States increased about 5 percent over all in the last year, some essential items like eggs and milk have jumped far more. The federal government is expected to release new data on domestic food prices Wednesday, with notable increases expected.
On Monday, President Bush ordered that $200 million in emergency food aid be made available to “meet unanticipated food aid needs in Africa and elsewhere,” a White House statement said.
His spokeswoman, Dana M. Perino, said the president had urged officials to look for additional ways to help poor nations combat food insecurity and to come up with a long-term plan “that helps take care of the world’s poor and hungry.”
Skeptics have long questioned the value of diverting food crops for fuel, and the grocery and live- stock industries vehemently opposed an energy bill last fall, arguing it was driving up costs.
A fifth of the nation’s corn crop is now used to brew ethanol for motor fuel, and as farmers have planted more corn, they have cut acreage of other crops, particularly soybeans. That, in turn, has contributed to a global shortfall of cooking oil.
Spreading global dissatisfaction in recent months has intensified the food-versus-fuel debate. Last Friday, a European environment advisory panel urged the European Union to suspend its goal of having 10 percent of transportation fuel made from biofuels by 2020. Europe’s well-meaning rush to biofuels, the scientists concluded, had created a variety of harmful ripple effects, including deforestation in Southeast Asia and higher prices for grain.
Even if biofuels are not the primary reason for the increase in food costs, some experts say it is one area where a reversal of government policy could help take pressure off food prices.
C. Ford Runge, an economist at the University of Minnesota, said it is “extremely difficult to disentangle” the effect of biofuels on food costs. Nevertheless, he said there was little that could be done to mitigate the effect of droughts and the growing appetite for protein in developing countries.
“Ethanol is the one thing we can do something about,” he said. “It’s about the only lever we have to pull, but none of the politicians have the courage to pull the lever.”
But August Schumacher, a former under secretary of agriculture who is a consultant for the Kellogg Foundation, said the criticism of biofuels might be misdirected. Development agencies like the World Bank and many governments did little to support agricultural development in the last two decades, he said.
He noted that many of the upheavals over food prices abroad have concerned rice and wheat, neither of which is used as a biofuel. For both those crops, global demand has soared at the same time that droughts suppressed the output from farms.
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
As other staples soar, potatoes break new ground
By Terry Wade
Apr 15, 2008
LIMA (Reuters) - As wheat and rice prices surge, the humble potato -- long derided as a boring tuber prone to making you fat -- is being rediscovered as a nutritious crop that could cheaply feed an increasingly hungry world.
Potatoes, which are native to Peru, can be grown at almost any elevation or climate: from the barren, frigid slopes of the Andes Mountains to the tropical flatlands of Asia. They require very little water, mature in as little as 50 days, and can yield between two and four times more food per hectare than wheat or rice.
"The shocks to the food supply are very real and that means we could potentially be moving into a reality where there is not enough food to feed the world," said Pamela Anderson, director of the International Potato Center in Lima (CIP), a non-profit scientific group researching the potato family to promote food security.
Like others, she says the potato is part of the solution.
The potato has potential as an antidote to hunger caused by higher food prices, a population that is growing by one billion people each decade, climbing costs for fertilizer and diesel, and more cropland being sown for biofuel production.
To focus attention on this, the United Nations named 2008 the International Year of the Potato, calling the vegetable a "hidden treasure".
Governments are also turning to the tuber. Peru's leaders, frustrated by a doubling of wheat prices in the past year, have started a program encouraging bakers to use potato flour to make bread. Potato bread is being given to school children, prisoners and the military, in the hope the trend will catch on.
Supporters say it tastes just as good as wheat bread, but not enough mills are set up to make potato flour.
"We have to change people's eating habits," said Ismael Benavides, Peru's agriculture minister. "People got addicted to wheat when it was cheap."
Even though the potato emerged in Peru 8,000 years ago near Lake Titicaca, Peruvians eat fewer potatoes than people in Europe: Belarus leads the world in potato consumption, with each inhabitant of the eastern European state devouring an average of 376 pounds (171 kg) a year.
India has told food experts it wants to double potato production in the next five to 10 years. China, a huge rice consumer that historically has suffered devastating famines, has become the world's top potato grower. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the potato is expanding more than any other crop right now.
Some consumers are switching to potatoes. In the Baltic country of Latvia, sharp price rises caused bread sales to drop by 10-15 percent in January and February, as consumers bought 20 percent more potatoes, food producers have said.
The developing world is where most new potato crops are being planted, and as consumption rises poor farmers have a chance to earn more money.
"The countries themselves are looking at the potato as a good option for both food security and also income generation," Anderson said.
AFFORDABLE RAINBOW OF COLORS
The potato is already the world's third most-important food crop after wheat and rice. Corn, which is widely planted, is mainly used for animal feed.
Though most Americans associate potatoes with the bland Idaho variety, they actually come in some 5,000 types. Peru is sending thousands of seeds this year to the Doomsday Vault near the Arctic Circle, contributing to a gene bank for food crops that was set up in case of a global disaster.
With colors ranging from alabaster-white to bright yellow and deep purple and countless shapes, textures, and sizes, potatoes offer inventive chefs a chance to create new, eye-catching plates.
"They taste great," said Juan Carlos Mescco, 17, a potato farmer in Peru's Andes who says he frequently eats them sliced, boiled, or mashed from breakfast through dinner.
Potatoes are a great source of complex carbohydrates, which release their energy slowly, and -- so long as they are not smothered with butter -- have only five percent of the fat content of wheat.
They also have one-fourth of the calories of bread and, when boiled, have more protein than corn and nearly twice the calcium, according to the Potato Center. They contain vitamin C, iron, potassium and zinc.
SPECULATORS AREN'T TEMPTED
One factor helping the potato remain affordable is the fact that unlike wheat, it is not a global commodity, so has not attracted speculative professional investment.
Each year, farmers around the globe produce about 600 million metric tonnes of wheat, and about 17 percent of that flows into foreign trade.
Wheat production is almost double that of potato output. Analysts estimate less than 5 percent of potatoes are traded internationally, and prices are mainly driven by local tastes, instead of international demand.
Raw potatoes are heavy and can rot in transit, so global trade in them has been slow to take off. They are also susceptible to infection with pathogens, hampering export to avoid spreading plant diseases.
The downside to that is that prices in some countries aren't attractive enough to persuade farmers to grow them. People in Peruvian markets say the government needs to help lift demand.
"Prices are low. It doesn't pay to work with potatoes," said Juana Villavicencio, who spent 15 years planting potatoes and now sells them for pennies a kilo in a market in Cusco, in Peru's southern Andes.
But science is moving fast. Genetically modified potatoes that resist "late blight" are being developed by German chemicals group BASF. The disease led to famine in Ireland during the 19th century and still causes about 20 percent of potato harvest losses in the world, the company says.
Scientists say farmers who use clean, virus-free seeds can boost yields by 30 percent and be cleared for export.
That would generate more income for farmers and encourage more production as companies could sell specialty potatoes abroad, instead of just as frozen french fries or potato chips.
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Riots, instability spread as food prices skyrocket
April 14, 2008
(CNN) -- Riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt over the soaring costs of basic foods have brought the issue to a boiling point and catapulted it to the forefront of the world's attention, the head of an agency focused on global development said Monday.
"This is the world's big story," said Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute.
"The finance ministers were in shock, almost in panic this weekend," he said on CNN's "American Morning," in a reference to top economic officials who gathered in Washington. "There are riots all over the world in the poor countries ... and, of course, our own poor are feeling it in the United States."
World Bank President Robert Zoellick has said the surging costs could mean "seven lost years" in the fight against worldwide poverty.
"While many are worrying about filling their gas tanks, many others around the world are struggling to fill their stomachs, and it is getting more and more difficult every day," Zoellick said late last week in a speech opening meetings with finance ministers.
"The international community must fill the at least $500 million food gap identified by the U.N.'s World Food Programme to meet emergency needs," he said. "Governments should be able to come up with this assistance and come up with it now."
The White House announced Monday evening that an estimated $200 million in emergency food aid would be made available through the U.S. Agency for International Development.
"This additional food aid will address the impact of rising commodity prices on U.S. emergency food aid programs, and be used to meet unanticipated food aid needs in Africa and elsewhere," the White House said in a news release.
"In just two months," Zoellick said in his speech, "rice prices have skyrocketed to near historical levels, rising by around 75 percent globally and more in some markets, with more likely to come. In Bangladesh, a 2-kilogram bag of rice ... now consumes about half of the daily income of a poor family."
The price of wheat has jumped 120 percent in the past year, he said -- meaning that the price of a loaf of bread has more than doubled in places where the poor spend as much as 75 percent of their income on food.
"This is not just about meals forgone today or about increasing social unrest. This is about lost learning potential for children and adults in the future, stunted intellectual and physical growth," Zoellick said.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, also spoke at the joint IMF-World Bank spring meeting.
"If food prices go on as they are today, then the consequences on the population in a large set of countries ... will be terrible," he said.
He added that "disruptions may occur in the economic environment ... so that at the end of the day most governments, having done well during the last five or 10 years, will see what they have done totally destroyed, and their legitimacy facing the population destroyed also."
In Haiti, the prime minister was kicked out of office Saturday, and hospital beds are filled with wounded following riots sparked by food prices.
The World Bank announced a $10 million grant from the United States for Haiti to help the government assist poor families.
In Egypt, rioters have burned cars and destroyed windows of numerous buildings as police in riot gear have tried to quell protests.
Images from Bangladesh and Mozambique tell a similar story.
In the United States and other Western nations, more and more poor families are feeling the pinch. In recent days, presidential candidates have paid increasing attention to the cost of food, often citing it on the stump.
The issue is also fueling a rising debate over how much the rising prices can be blamed on ethanol production. The basic argument is that because ethanol comes from corn, the push to replace some traditional fuels with ethanol has created a new demand for corn that has thrown off world food prices.
Jean Ziegler, U.N. special rapporteur on the right to food, has called using food crops to create ethanol "a crime against humanity."
"We've been putting our food into the gas tank -- this corn-to-ethanol subsidy which our government is doing really makes little sense," said Columbia University's Sachs.
Former President Clinton, at a campaign stop for his wife in Pennsylvania over the weekend, said, "Corn is the single most inefficient way to produce ethanol because it uses a lot of energy and because it drives up the price of food."
Some environmental groups reject the focus on ethanol in examining food prices.
"The contrived food vs. fuel debate has reared its ugly head once again," the Renewable Fuels Association says on its Web site, adding that "numerous statistical analyses have demonstrated that the price of oil -- not corn prices or ethanol production -- has the greatest impact on consumer food prices because it is integral to virtually every phase of food production, from processing to packaging to transportation."
Analysts agree the cost of fuel is among the reasons for the skyrocketing prices.
Another major reason is rising demand, particularly in places in the midst of a population boom, such as China and India.
Also, said Sachs, "climate shocks" are damaging food supply in parts of the world. "You add it all together: Demand is soaring, supply has been cut back, food has been diverted into the gas tank. It's added up to a price explosion."
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: April 14 2008 22:10 | Last updated: April 15 2008 07:40
Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels, one of the country’s top energy executives has warned, fuelling concerns that the world’s biggest oil producers cannot keep up with rampant Asian demand.
The warning helped on Tuesday to push crude oil prices to a fresh all-time high above $112 a barrel, threatening to stoke inflation in many countries.
US crude oil West Texas Intermediate surged in London trading to $113.06 a barrel, above last week’s record of $112.21 a barrel. It later traded 125 cents higher at $113.01 a barrel.
Leonid Fedun, the 52-year-old vice-president of Lukoil, Russia’s largest independent oil company, told the Financial Times he believed last year’s Russian oil production of about 10m barrels a day was the highest he would see “in his lifetime”. Russia is the world’s second biggest oil producer.
Mr Fedun compared Russia with the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production is declining dramatically, saying that in the oil-rich region of western Siberia, the mainstay of Russian output, “the period of intense oil production [growth] is over”.
The Russian government has so far admitted that production growth has stagnated, but has shied away from admitting that post-Soviet output has peaked.
Viktor Khristenko, Russia’s energy minister who is pushing for tax cuts that could stimulate investment, said last week: “The output level we have today is a plateau, stagnation.”
Russia was until recently considered as the most promising oil region outside the Middle East. Its rapid output growth in the early 2000s helped to meet booming Chinese demand and limited the rise in oil prices.
The trend, however, has turned, with supply dropping below year-ago levels for the first time this decade, according to the International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog.
Oil futures on Monday rose to $111.79 a barrel, just below last week’s record of $112.21 a barrel.
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Private home sales leapt 80% in March from February
By Ng Baoying
15 April 2008
SINGAPORE: There are signs the property market in Singapore might be making an about-turn following its muted start to the year.
Figures released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) show that the number of private homes sold in March leapt 80 per cent from the month before, signalling improved buyer sentiment.
And developers were even more positive. They launched more than 600 units for sale in March - about 85 per cent more than the month before, and the highest in seven months.
Analysts said they expect to see more units being placed on sale in the months to come.
Donald Han, Managing Director of Cushman & Wakefield, Singapore, said: “Moving forward we expect more launches taking place in the second quarter of this year. While there are generally not a slew of new launches, a lot of developers have re-launched their projects. Re-launched in the sense (they) have started to price properties at more realistic levels.
“Early part of year, it's not too effective to start pricing there. But now we are well into 2008. There are developers who are certainly using pricing to attract more positive sentiment to lure the buyers out."
Still, developers have some way to go before the property market even begins to resemble that of its heydays last year.
A closer look at the numbers show that most of the increase in sales came from the high-end market where sales jumped 80 per cent, compared to a 31 per cent hop in suburban region sales.
For now, it seems that mass market buyers will still be holding back in hope of better deals to come.
Analysts are also quick to note that the ratio of launches to sales in March still remain at February levels at 47.5 per cent to 46.4 per cent.
Nicholas Mak, Director of Knight Frank, said: "At first glance, it seems like sales figures in March have improved over February. The numbers moved back to about the same level as in January or December. But on closer analysis we find that the take-up has weakened. Typically about 70 to 90 per cent of units launched are sold. Right now that figure has fallen to about 50 per cent, same as February."
But overall, analysts said the private home market data for March should still put a smile on the faces of those in the industry, given the current economic climate due to the bad news from the US and its ensuing ripple effect worldwide. - CNA/vm
Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
MARKET VIEW
STI (3046 at 11.35am Apr 15) tested 3000-3050 support zone and
poised to recover back to 3100-3150
The market is unlikely to sustain any downtrend all the way below 3000 to 2900 or 2800 during the current earnings season without making significant rebounds as the macro picture has not deteriorated.
At this stage the market is not reacting too negatively to the same old bearish views that the worst of the sub-prime is still to come and that the US is headed for the worst economic and financial woes since the oil crisis of the 70s or even since WW2 or the Great Depression of the 30s.
Even the likes of Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan have acknowledged that the balance sheets of US corporations are sound with strong cash positions and that the real economy “appears to be reasonably good” which implies that core corporate earnings should underpin the market in the event of more sub-prime related credit losses.
After the first quarter market turmoil, analysts too have become
increasingly cautious in earnings forecasts which should help to
mitigate any investor disappointments during this latest reporting season.
Having seen the STI plunged some 28% from its 3831 peak to 2746,
with the 2750-2800 area well-defended after being tested 3 to 4 times, there is less fear of a major crack of this support level anytime soon.
Although the future remains bleak the market has a way of adapting
itself to bearish situations always trying to discount them quickly and try to read the fundamental picture 6 to 9 months going forward.
Thus even if the credit losses reach the US$945b IMF figure or $1.2tr Goldman Sachs estimate, Wall Street’s reaction may not be worse than it had been in q1 which had seen the Dow plunged to below 12000 to around 11600.
Investors have been encouraged by the consistent rebounds to above
12000 with the Dow showing single digit year to date loss (currently
7.4% down at 12302).
This will lead to more widespread views that Wall Street will be sticky on the downside and the STI too will not easily break the established 2750-2800 support. The recent strong rebound to as high as 3181 shows the market’s potential to look at the bright side of things especially with the Singapore economy rebounding strongly in q1, the strong S$ which will mitigate inflationary pressures and the continued bullish economic picture with tens of billions to be pumped into transport and building projects.
The STI’s recent rebound and relatively tame pullback notwithstanding yesterday’s 84 point plunge (lows of 3035 yesterday/today), shows the market had read the local economic and hence earnings picture well and will not over-react to bearish overseas leads more than it had done earlier.
The STI after all is down 12.4% YTD against 7.4% for the Dow when
our economic and earnings picture look much better than the US.
Thus there is still a good possibility that the STI will meet our 50% retracement target of 3250-3300 in the next one to 2 months. At this level it will still be 5-6% below 2007 close of 3466. - Amfraser Securities Pte Ltd
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Tuesday, April 15, 2008
SGX
From Kim Eng:-
1. SGX – 3Q08 results
Closing price: S$7.93
Recommendation: Sell (maintained)
Target price: S$5.60 (Increased from S$5.15)
♦ 3Q08 earnings in line with market expectations
- SGX posted 3Q08 earnings of $101.5m, in line with market expectations of $103m
- 3Q08 net profit rose 13.9% Y/Y, but sank 17.1% from the previous quarter.
- The sharp sequential decline in profits reflects the weaker trading activity in the securities market (average daily turnover fell 16.9% from 2Q08) and an 11.6% Q/Q decline in stable revenue.
- The group declared a tax-exempt one-tier dividend of 3 cents per share in 3Q08 and 9 cents YTD. This was 50% higher than the 6 cents declared in the previous 9M07 period.
♦ Robust derivatives revenue and ETF cushioned impact of market volatility
- Derivatives, which saw growth sustained from 2Q08, grew 36.4% Y/Y and was the key contributor to revenue.
- Rising revenue contribution from derivatives income (from 19% of revenue to 22.5% of revenue in 3Q).
- Trading value of the ETFs surged by 244.5% to $727.4m.
- SGX’s futures trading volume swelled 51% Y/Y to 14.8m contracts, mainly led by the MSCI Singapore futures and MSCI Taiwan futures.
♦ Better-than-expected operating leverage
- Operating leverage improved from 117% to 138% YTD FY08, as coverage from stable revenue and net derivatives clearing revenue strengthened.
- Operating expenses fell 12.1% Q/Q mainly due to declining staff costs (-14.9% Y/Y; -19% Q/Q) on the back of lower variable bonus.
- Despite expectation of weaker operating margins ahead, we expect operating margins to be less vulnerable than before on the back of the strengthening derivatives income, higher threshold for securities clearing fees and huge variable component in staff costs.
- Our earnings estimates for FY08/09 is raised by 8-12% on expectation of firmer operating margins.
♦ New sources of growth drivers
- Continued growth in structured warrants
- Attracting algorithmic trading
- Continued growth in SGX AsiaClear
- Acquisition of at least 95% of Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM)
♦ The tide is rough
- At current levels, SGX trades at premium valuation of 22.9x FY09 PER, to the sector average of 17.2x.
- Despite effective diversification of revenue stream, securities clearing fees (the key revenue contributor at 55.6% of revenue) will inevitably be adversely affected by weakening ADT.
- Premium valuation amid choppy macro environment, maintain SELL.
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Record $8b worth of govt tenders up for grabs
Lion's share goes to building projects but boom could add to cost pressure
By LYNETTE KHOO
April 15, 2008
(SINGAPORE) It may have pushed back building projects worth $3 billion to ease the crunch, but the government is still calling for tenders to the tune of a record $5.8 billion in the construction sector this fiscal year.
In all, its tenders for FY2008 will touch $8 billion - surpassing the previous record set in FY2006 when it called for some $7.5 billion worth of tenders.
The bulk, this year, will be splashed out on building and construction projects. This includes moves to improve traffic on the Central Expressway and the Gardens by the Bay project that will keep the Marina Bay area development on schedule, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) said yesterday.
The bumper $6.4 billion budget surplus has allowed the government to spend generously, economists said.
'We had a very healthy budget surplus last year and essentially, that provides some deep pockets for the government to embark on a more robust expansion policy,' said DBS economist Irvin Seah.
Economists also noted that the record amount of tenders involving building and construction projects reinforces the government's long-term goal to beef up its infrastructure to boost the country's competitiveness.
'I tend to see this building and construction project as a long-term effort to improve the competitiveness of our economy,' Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng said, pointing to the strains that the rising population and growing economy have imposed on infrastructure.
'In terms of construction, it's all well and good because it supports our thesis that demand remains very healthy,' he added.
Of the government tenders announced yesterday by MOF, some $1.2 billion will go towards the purchase of goods and services, such as the supply of equipment, appliances and the operation of the automated toll system at the checkpoints.
Tenders in information and communications technology (ICT) projects are also expected to be worth at least $1 billion. The Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore (IDA) will be announcing further details on the upcoming ICT projects during their annual industry briefing next month.
The plan for public sector procurement was first introduced in 2003 by MOF to inform suppliers about the public sector's indicative purchasing plan for the financial year between April and March. Its objective is to make the government marketplace more attractive and transparent to suppliers and purchases exceeding $200,000 are listed in the plan.
While economists believe that the large government tenders for building and construction projects are generally good for the industry, some felt there was still a need to address tightness in construction resources and rising costs.
'The growth is still there for the construction sector but it has to be measured against rising building costs,' Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew said. 'Although we see that the $3 billion of deferred projects will mitigate some of the building costs pressures, a lot of the demand is global, whether it is steel or cement and construction workers. These are all globally priced.'
Mr Kit of Citi noted that the industry has already been squeezed by supply-side tightness in the first quarter, when the construction sector grew at an easier pace of 14.6 per cent year-on-year after growing by 24.3 per cent in the preceding quarter.
'It does suggest that supply-side constraints are already beginning to bite into construction growth,' he added. 'Growth would have been faster if not for the supply-side constraints.'
MOF said yesterday that it will continue to monitor the construction industry closely with BCA and other relevant agencies and make appropriate adjustments when necessary.
The timing of the large government tenders against the backdrop of a global demand slowdown could also alleviate any potential shortfall of investments in the private sector.
In response to a BT query on this, MOF said these government tenders are only based on the actual requirements of the government agencies.
Said Mr Kit from Citi: 'This move is probably quite timely but how effective it will be in boosting the economy is a question mark.
'I think the government will have to do more to ease the supply-side constraints if they want this to contribute fully to GDP growth... and prevent prices from spiralling upwards,' he added.
On a more positive note, Mr Seah of DBS said a bigger outlay from the government 'will certainly be helpful to businesses, especially when external demand is weakening.'
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Ring of Power
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
A wealthy old lady decides to go on a photo safari in Africa, taking her faithful aged poodle, Cuddles, along for company.
One day the poodle starts chasing butterflies and before long, Cuddles discovers that he's lost. Wandering about, he notices a leopard heading rapidly in his direction with the intention of having lunch.
The old poodle thinks, 'Oh, oh! I'm in deep doo-doo now!' Noticing some bones on the ground close by, he immediately settles down to chew on the bones with his back to the approaching cat. Just as the leopard is about to leap! the old poodle exclaims loudly, 'Boy, that was one delicious leopard! I wonder if there are any more around here?'
Hearing this, the young leopard halts his attack in mid-strike, a look of terror comes over him and he slinks away into the trees. 'Whew!', says the leopard, 'That was close! That old poodle nearly had me!'
Meanwhile, a monkey who had been watching the whole scene from a nearby tree, figures he can put this knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the leopard. So off he goes, but the old poodle sees him heading after the leopard with great speed, and figures that something must be up! The monkey soon catches up with the leopard, spills the beans and strikes a deal for himself with the leopard.
The young leopard is furious at being made a fool of and says, 'Here, monkey, hop on my back and see what's going to happen to that conniving canine!'
Now, the old poodle sees the leopard coming with the monkey on his back and thinks, 'What am I going to do now?' But instead of running, the dog sits down with his back to his attackers, pretending he hasn't seen them yet, and just when they get close enough to hear, the old poodle says.
'Where's that damn monkey? I sent him off an hour ago to bring me another leopard!'
Moral of this story....
Don't mess with old farts...age and treachery will always overcome youth and skill! Bullshit and brilliance only come with age and experience.
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Shirawaka Appointed Bank of Japan Governor, Ending 3-Week Vacancy in Top Post
ジャパン・ブリーフ/FPCJ, No. 0820
April 11, 2008
Masaaki Shirakawa was appointed as governor of the Bank of Japan upon approval by the Diet on April 9, ending an unprecedented situation of a three-week void in the central bank’s top post after Toshihiko Fukui stepped down on March 19 without a successor approved by the Diet as his term expired. Shirakawa, being approved earlier by the Diet as a deputy governor, had been acting governor, as the government’s nominee for the top post was voted down, twice, by the upper house controlled by the opposition parties.
The humiliating development left Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda with no choice but to promote Shirakawa to governor only because the opposition bloc, the Democratic Party of Japan in particular, had no objection to him. Shirakawa, 58, was a career Bank of Japan official, who until recently served as one its directors. Known as a top-rate monetary policy theorist, he was teaching at Kyoto University after his retirement from the bank.
As he in a way has accidentally taken office, his competence as the helmsman of the central bank—capability to communicate with the market, negotiate with central bankers of other countries, deal with the government and politicians, and manage the huge organization of the central bank—is considered as yet an unknown quantity, although no strong doubt has been voiced. In the confirmation hearing in the Diet, Shirawaka stated that he was deeply concerned about the credit crisis in the U.S., which he said could become the worst since the 1930s. “As the governor of the Bank of Japan I am determined to wholly dedicate myself to fulfilling the duty of keeping the currency value stable and steer the course of the economy rightly,” he said following his appointment as governor.
He was in the first place put forward as a candidate for deputy governor to work with governor-in-waiting Toshiro Muto, a former vice minister of finance, who had been groomed to succeed Fukui. But the upper house, dominated by the DPJ which is adamantly opposed to anyone with a Finance Ministry background for the Bank of Japan post, rejected Muto, while approving Shirawaka as a deputy governor. In place of Muto, Prime Minister Fukuda nominated for the BOJ governor another former vice finance minister, Koji Tanami, only to be turned down again.
While Fukuda’s seemingly obstinate insistence on former Finance Ministry men was questioned, the Democratic Party leadership’s knee-jerk rejection of Finance Ministry connections was criticized as equally unwise, being too simplistic and dogmatic. It appeared to grow all the more so when the party leader Ichiro Ozawa forced the party to reject Hiroshi Watanabe, proposed as a deputy governor under Shirakawa, again for the simple reason of his Finance Ministry background, even though he was generally considered well qualified and acceptable for the job. As a result, one of the two deputy governor posts remains vacant.
The DPJ, its leader Ichiro Ozawa in particular, continued their stand against retired senior government officials parachuting down into other institutions, while the Finance Ministry had more or less taken it for granted in the past that its retired top officials would land the post of the Bank of Japan governor, alternating with the bank’s officials who have risen through its ranks. Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura ridiculed Ozawa’s “descending” theory as “sheer nonsense,” adding that “his insistence on separation of the fiscal and monetary branches doesn’t make sense either.”
It was considered that the confusion over the Bank of Japan’s top post could not have come at a worse time, when the world’s credit markets are bracing for what might become the worst financial crisis in decades, with the Japanese economy teetering on the brink of a recession. It was seen as a result of the appointment being taken hostage for a political showdown and partisan gains.
Ironically, the chaos stemmed in part from the 1998 overhaul of the Bank of Japan Law, intended to give it greater independence from the government and political pressure. The amendment subjected the appointment of the bank’s governor and deputy governors to approval by both houses of the Diet, but means to cope with a divided parliament as now exists have not been taken into consideration. Nor are political parties supposed to behave to make the appointment of the central governor into a political punch-bag, which only hurts the authority of the post and the stature of the bank.
Media Commentaries
Most expressed exasperation at the central bank post being caught in political wrangling, saying that undermined the bank’s authority. (In alphabetical order of major newspapers commenting on the subject).
【Finally, a BOJ governor; We hope politicians will respect his independence】(Asahi Shimbun, April 9） “Our greatest concern now is that the new BOJ governor's ability to withstand political pressure may already have been compromised because of the politicization of his appointment. However, we are not entirely without cause for optimism. Shirakawa was approved by both the ruling coalition and opposition Minshuto, which means both are duty-bound to support him. We hope Shirakawa will take full advantage of this fact. Guarantee of the central bank's independence is not a given. . . .The Bank of Japan must win its independence in name as well as in reality by virtue of its own achievements and by earning the respect and trust of the government, the market and the public.”
【Restoring damaged authority is also a task】(Mainichi Shimbun, April 10) “After the amendment of the Bank of Japan Law, the relationship between the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Japan has undergone big changes. In the past, the bank used to consult with the ministry in advance when it intended to change its monetary policy. But at present, decisions are made by a vote by its policy board members. . . .How to build cooperative relations among Asian economies is also an issue. That naturally includes a mechanism of cooperation in the aspect of currencies. In order to protect Japan’s national interests, the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Japan need to work closely together. In total neglect of these requirements, the appointments of the governor and deputy governors got into a political scrum, leaving a well-nigh indelible stain on the history the Bank of Japan. It is hoped that adequate policies will be implemented under Governor Shirakawa and damaged authority will be restored.”
【Reform should be pushed; the new Bank of Japan regime faces limitations】(Nikkei, April 10）“Saddled with various limitations, the Bank of Japan is finding it difficult to take effective measures (to cope with growing uncertainties in the economy). It cannot take effective monetary policy if business deteriorates, given the extremely low level of the benchmark interest rate. On the contrary, if price increases become serious, a substantial tightening is a taboo when its impact on the economy is taken into consideration. The Bank of Japan under governor Shirakawa has to tread an extremely narrow path. It is for this reason that reform grows in importance; reform that can work both on business and prices—deregulation in medical services, conclusion of economic partnership agreements, agricultural reform and fiscal reform.”
【Shirakawa must do his best to restore confidence in the Bank of Japan】(Sankei Shimbun, April 10) “In the recent confusion over the governorship of the Bank of Japan, the bank’s independence was so easily trodden down by political wrangling. . . .For that reason, the first task Mr. Shirakawa must tackle is to restore confidence in the independence of the bank that has been lost in the international community and market. Capable as he is as an expert in monetary policy planning, he is yet an unknown quantity so far as his ability to lead a big organization like the Bank of Japan. The G-7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Washington will certainly be a touchstone for him.”
【Heavy task left by confusion over the Bank of Japan appointments】(Yomiuri Shimbun, April 10）“The way the Bank of Japan personnel appointment was turned into farce by politics badly diminished the market’s confidence in the bank. If politicians had understood fully the spirit of the new Bank of Japan Law (that greatly bolstered its independence), this could never have happened. While the Bank of Japan is assured of its independence, it owes to the nation a full explanation of the reason for its decision making. It was a pity that discussions that would improve the transparency and accountability of policies did not take place in the Diet. Political parties should set aside partisan interests and respect the Bank of Japan’s independence. In response, the bank should fulfill its responsibility for accountability. Such a mature relationship must be built soon.”
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo warn 'delusional' investors on stocks
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
April 15, 2008
Wall Street faces the growing risk of an equities bloodbath in coming months as the credit crunch spreads to the wider economy and earnings crumble, according to a pair of grim reports issued by Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.
David Kostin, the chief US investment guru for Goldman Sachs, expects the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities to plummet a further 15pc over the "near term" as companies scramble to lower their outlook for this year.
"Although only a few firms have reported first quarter results, early signs are awful. We expect a swath of lowered profit guidance," he said in a research note published today, entitled 'Fasten Seatbelts'.
Mr Kostin, who replaced the ever-bullish Abby Cohen as chief strategist in December, expects the S&P index to reach 1,160, which would amount to a fall of 27pc from the bull market peak of 1,576 in September and enter the annals as a relatively severe bear market.
Goldman Sachs was the only major investment bank on Wall Street to turn a profit from the credit crunch, taking out huge "short" positions on sub-prime mortgage bonds before they went into a tailspin.
The firm's daily trading notes are one of the most closely watched sources in global finance.
Scott Anderson, chief economist at Wells Fargo, is equally pessimistic, describing the bullish views of some market players as "bordering on delusional".
"The equity markets have not yet priced in a prolonged downturn in economic growth in my opinion. We are still in the early stages of the credit crunch. Earnings estimates for the second half of the year are likely still far too high," he said.
Mr Anderson said investors should pay attention when the International Monetary Fund cuts its global growth forecast for 2008 three times in less than five months. The Fund has put the odds of a world recession at 25pc and predicted $945bn in losses from the credit debacle spread across banks, hedge funds, pension funds, and insurers.
"Even more alarming, the IMF estimates that only a quarter of these potential losses have been recognized," he said.
"Rarely do we ever see such uncertainty surrounding the economic and financial outlook. The forecasts for GDP growth in the second quarter of 2008 are currently all over the map. If you feel you must wade into equities at the present time, I would suggest spreading your bets widely," he said.
Goldman Sachs said the key for equities will be the full-year guidance offered by companies rather than first quarter profits. It cited the example of Bed Bath & Beyond, where the stock fell sharply last week after the firm said the earnings prospects for 2008 would be around 16pc below consensus estimates.
Mr Kostin said investors often "look through" downturns, preparing for the sunny uplands that lie on the other side as the cycle recovers. But the pattern in this bear market has been a series of earnings shocks precipitating sudden share price falls.
The implication is that investment funds have been caught badly off guard by the severity of the economic slump and are scrambling to catch up with reality.
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
The Madness of Ben Bernanke
By Gabor Steingart
April 14, 2008
The dollar is in a tailspin, the trade deficit is growing and a recession is on the horizon. The American way of life is in serious danger. But the head of the Federal Reserve keeps on pumping easy credit into the system -- a crazy policy that will worsen the crisis.
Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have more in common with the big cat entertainers Siegfried & Roy than any of us can be comfortable with.
The Las Vegas magicians call themselves "Masters of the Impossible" and have been fascinating audiences for decades by getting snow-white tigers to leap through burning rings.
The legendary Federal Reserve Chairman and his successor were equally adept at fascinating their audiences -- with a policy of miraculous monetary growth that gave America one of the longest periods of economic expansion in modern times. Many saw them as "Masters of the Universe." It seemed as if the central bankers had tamed predatory capitalism with their constant interest rate cuts.
Siegfried & Roy at times seemed at one with their cats, until the day everything went out of control. A tiger bit Roy in the neck during a show and looked as though it were about to devour him alive.
Greenspan and Bernanke too have lost their magic touch, and their image has been shredded by the real estate crisis and the dollar slide. The ravages of the financial markets aren't doing them any personal harm. But devalued stocks, bad mortgage loans and the diving dollar are damaging millions of small investors and savers.
It's as if the tiger has leapt of the stage and is mauling the audience. We can't blame wild cats or financial markets for being ruthless. It's in their nature to be brutal. Their unmistakeable message is: you can take things this far and no further.
In the case of the real estate crisis which reached the banks and is now unsettling the stock markets, the markets are now showing what G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting last weekend in Washington for their annual spring get-together declined yet again to admit publicly: Americans must change their lives -- or it will be changed for them by force.
American Way of Life Under Threat
The credit-financed consumer boom of recent years is coming to a painful end. Today's American Way of Life has no chance of surviving the coming years undamaged. The virus will continue to ravage its way through the financial system.
The property crisis is likely to spread to credit card providers soon and will then probably infect car manufacturers, furniture makers and all the other firms that owe their sales increases to the growth in credit finance. "The virus will keep on infecting the system," one management board member from a large bank said, requesting anonymity in return for the candour of his analysis.
His argument is that banks that grant mortgages to home buyers virtually unable to pay their bills are unlikely to be especially scrutinizing when it comes to lending cash to the buyers of fridges, cars and furniture. Indeed, a furniture store in Miami recently tried to lure consumers with the following offer: buy now, pay your first credit installment in three years, and no need for a down-payment.
The credit-financed way of life is typical of the US these days. Many people resort to credit to plug the gap between the lifestyle they have become accustomed to and their declining wages.
Dulling the Pain With Credit
The borrowed cash is like an anaesthetic against the painful impact of globalisation. Private household debt has been growing by $4 billion each business day for years.
All this wouldn't be so bad if the US economy were at least doing well in foreign markets. But it isn't, and hasn't been for a long time. Despite the depreciation of the dollar, which makes imports into the US far more expensive while making US exports cheaper in foreign markets, US manufacturers are finding it hard to sell their products.
Contrary to forecasts by both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, the trade deficit has continued to grow, by 6 percent in February alone. America imported $62 billion worth of goods more than they exported in February, including a disturbingly large number of cars, computers and pharmaceutical products. Try as they might, most private households in America can't keep up this consumer miracle. The savings behavior of many Americans means that many of them now live from hand to mouth.
But Bernanke is doing nothing to dampen this hunger for credit. The former advisor to President George W. Bush is even trying to whip up credit-financed consumption by lowering interest rates. This is helping to fuel inflation because the monetary growth isn't being matched by growth in real economic output. Inflation in the US currently stands at 4 percent.
It's a paradox. The private commercial banks which have just had to make billions of dollars in write downs have become more cautious. They're scared of further risks. The management resignations at Citigroup and Bear Stearns have had a sobering impact.
Patriotic Madness
Meanwhile the Federal Reserve is urging the banks to go on taking risks. It has been injecting cash into the banking system for the past half-year while urging bank CEOs in confidential chats to offer more credit. The aim is to keep on financing consumer spending and even to stimulate it further -- for reasons of patriotism.
There's a word for this policy -- madness.
But because there is method in this madness, the meeting of mighty central bank governors and finance ministers in Washington over the weekend remained silent about it, at least officially. Outside the meeting rooms, though, there were murmurings about the poisoned legacy of Alan Greenspan and Bernanke's irresponsible behavior.
One participant told me: "There's an unwritten code of honor that says central bank governors should refrain from criticizing each other." Not least out of respect for the independence of central banks.
But the US is unlikely to realize the error of its ways on its own. "The Americans will always do the right thing," British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said, "after they've exhausted all the alternatives."
Central bankers and tiger tamers have something else in common -- obstinacy. Roy has recovered from his wounds and wants to return to the stage in Las Vegas. "The magic is back," came the defiant announcement.
Alan Greenspan cut a similarly indestructible figure at the weekend. Even though criticism of his cheap money policy was only murmured privately, the 82-year-old legend of central banking said: "I was praised for things I didn't do. I am now being blamed for things I didn't do."
Not that he ever complained about getting false praise.
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
两国交战，不杀来使 ── ‘Please don’t shoot the messenger; he didn’t invent the story.’ Political opinions are suppressed when stated.
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
心语传真情，剎那成永恒...
清晨笑一笑，才有心情赚钞票；
中午笑一笑，炒菜不用加调料；
晚上笑一笑，一切烦恼全跑掉；
做梦笑一笑，小心牙齿全丢掉!
午安您好！您笑了吗？
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Chief Justice Marshall in 1819: "The power to tax is the power to destroy."
US deep in debt and still digging
By Jim Jubak
4/15/2008 12:01 AM ET
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
王冠一： 無 底 黑 洞 越 踩 越 深
2008年04月16日（星期三）
由 樓 市 衰 退 所 衍 生 的 次 按 及 信 貸 風 暴 ， 爆 發 至 今 已 接 近 9 個 月 ， 不 過 情 況 未 有 緩 和 象 。 商 銀 和 投 行 仍 不 斷 要 為 次 按 產 品 撇 賬 ， 連 同 新 近 公 佈 業 績 的 華 盛 頓 互 惠 （ Washington Mutual ） 、 Wachovia 和 貝 爾 斯 登 （ Bear Stearns ） ， 相 關 減 值 和 撥 備 已 接 近 3000 億 （ 美 元 ． 下 同 ） 。 國 基 會 估 計 最 終 撇 賬 額 將 逾 9450 億 ， 絕 非 危 言 聳 聽 。
華 爾 街 具 創 意 之 士 把 次 按 組 合 包 裝 成 為 「 糖 衣 毒 藥 」 出 售 ， 這 些 丸 仔 初 期 確 實 令 他 們 肚 滿 腸 肥 ， 但 賣 丸 仔 有 如 練 七 傷 拳 ， 最 終 害 人 害 己 。 雖 然 批 股 集 資 來 填 補 損 失 是 華 爾 街 的 拿 手 好 戲 ， 但 不 斷 從 井 中 抽 水 填 的 話 ， 遲 早 嚇 怕 投 資 者 ， 令 集 資 越 來 越 困 難 ； 縱 使 成 功 集 資 ， 條 件 亦 會 越 來 越 辛 辣 ， 苦 了 的 是 那 班 對 公 司 不 離 不 棄 的 原 股 東 ， 權 益 不 斷 被 新 來 的 白 武 士 攤 薄 。
為 了 填 補 次 按 資 產 減 值 的 損 失 ， 眾 多 大 行 已 透 過 不 同 渠 道 集 資 接 近 2000 億 ， 單 單 今 年 的 集 資 額 便 多 達 440 億 ， 是 去 年 同 期 176 億 的 2.5 倍 。 提 前 在 周 一 公 佈 業 績 的 Wachovia ， 今 年 已 兩 度 集 資 ， 集 資 額 分 別 是 35 億 和 70 億 ， 而 剛 伸 手 的 70 億 集 資 額 中 ， 有 一 半 是 以 上 周 五 收 市 價 折 讓 15% 批 股 ， 不 過 相 比 起 上 周 華 盛 頓 互 惠 向 德 州 太 平 洋 （ TPG ） 售 股 ， 當 中 15.4 億 是 以 之 前 一 日 收 市 價 的 三 分 二 定 價 ， 折 讓 已 不 算 大 。 其 他 年 內 曾 集 資 的 大 行 尚 包 括 法 興 籌 82.5 億 、 美 銀 69 億 、 雷 曼 兄 弟 40 億 等 。
次 按 減 值 沒 完 沒 了
雷 曼 早 前 集 資 40 億 來 補 充 資 本 ， 因 認 購 反 應 良 好 ， 曾 被 市 場 視 作 好 消 息 炒 ， 但 集 資 越 來 越 頻 密 ， 大 家 開 始 發 覺 這 個 黑 洞 深 不 見 底 ， 早 前 曾 以 為 撇 賬 潮 已 接 近 尾 聲 的 投 資 者 ， 現 時 紛 紛 轉 ， 原 因 是 理 解 到 在 新 會 計 準 則 下 ， 這 些 以 市 值 入 賬 的 次 按 資 產 ， 減 值 仍 將 沒 完 沒 了 。
除 非 美 國 樓 市 真 的 止 跌 回 穩 ， 否 則 這 個 黑 洞 只 會 越 踩 越 深 ， 難 見 曙 光 。
*********************************************************************************
曾淵滄： 買 股 始 終 是 看 基 本 因 素
2008年04月16日（星期三）
前 日 股 市 一 陣 狂 跌 ， 昨 日 總 算 站 穩 ， 前 日 的 狂 跌 是 外 圍 跌 所 引 起 的 ， 昨 日 的 回 穩 也 是 外 圍 回 穩 所 致 ， 基 本 上 ， 香 港 甚 麼 也 沒 發 生 。
所 謂 外 圍 ， 基 本 上 來 看 是 美 股 與 內 地 股 市 同 時 都 有 影 響 ， 所 幸 的 是 ， 內 地 A 股 與 香 港 H 股 的 股 價 從 過 去 至 今 日 ， 依 然 有 一 個 距 離 ， 這 個 距 離 使 到 過 去 半 年 內 地 股 市 狂 跌 近 5 成 ， 而 香 港 H 股 沒 有 跟 隨 內 地 下 跌 5 成 ， 也 就 是 說 ， 香 港 H 股 的 表 現 比 內 地 A 股 強 。
我 也 相 信 這 種 情 況 會 持 續 下 去 ， 去 年 內 地 A 股 市 場 炒 到 大 熱 時 ， PE 高 得 離 奇 ， 當 時 人 人 都 認 為 是 正 常 的 ， 人 人 都 認 為 內 地 市 場 是 股 少 錢 多 ， 一 定 會 漲 ， 這 是 炒 股 炒 昏 了 頭 腦 的 想 法 。 現 在 內 地 股 價 狂 跌 ， 內 地 股 民 、 香 港 股 民 也 都 開 始 明 白 ， 買 股 票 投 資 最 終 還 是 得 看 基 本 條 件 ， 那 就 是 PE 與 股 息 。
當 內 地 股 民 與 香 港 股 民 都 同 樣 地 以 PE 與 股 息 來 衡 量 股 票 的 投 資 價 值 時 ， A 股 與 H 股 股 價 的 差 異 就 會 縮 小 。 很 多 H 股 經 過 大 幅 度 的 下 跌 後 ， PE 已 經 達 到 一 個 相 當 合 理 的 水 平 ， 在 這 個 合 理 水 平 下 的 股 價 就 不 易 再 下 跌 ， 因 此 ， 儘 管 A 股 股 價 再 大 幅 下 跌 ， H 股 所 受 到 的 影 響 也 較 輕 。
內 房 股 會 唔 會 「 爆 煲 」 ？
內 地 A 股 跌 了 這 麼 多 ， 是 不 是 該 見 底 ？ 另 一 個 更 熱 門 的 話 題 是 ： 中 央 政 府 該 不 該 出 手 救 市 ？ 這 個 話 題 近 月 來 已 是 內 地 多 個 傳 媒 的 熱 門 話 題 ， 連 中 央 電 視 台 也 談 過 。 也 因 為 內 地 正 在 熱 烈 地 討 論 中 央 該 不 該 救 市 ， 香 港 股 民 就 開 始 熱 炒 A50 中 國 基 金 （ 2823 ） 。 這 一 陣 子 ， A50 中 國 基 金 幾 乎 天 天 都 成 為 香 港 十 大 最 熱 門 、 交 易 額 最 高 的 股 。
近 來 ， 內 地 財 經 傳 媒 的 熱 門 話 題 除 了 中 央 救 市 外 ， 另 一 個 熱 門 話 題 是 內 地 的 房 地 產 股 會 不 會 「 爆 煲 」 ？ 那 一 家 內 房 股 會 垮 掉 ？
過 去 兩 天 ， 富 力 地 產 （ 2777 ） 跌 幅 相 當 大 ， 主 因 是 富 力 地 產 申 請 A 股 上 市 集 資 之 事 已 拖 延 。 近 來 ， 內 地 銀 行 收 緊 銀 根 ， 不 少 房 地 產 企 業 借 不 到 錢 ， 叫 苦 連 天 。 記 得 在 1993 年 至 1996 年 間 ， 朱 鎔 基 的 宏 觀 調 控 也 使 到 不 少 內 地 房 地 產 企 業 倒 閉 ， 連 累 了 不 少 香 港 人 到 內 地 買 樓 ， 買 到 「 爛 尾 樓 」 ， 即 付 了 首 期 及 部 份 樓 價 ， 樓 房 卻 沒 有 建 好 ， 有 些 更 是 數 年 之 後 仍 是 一 幅 爛 地 。
這 一 回 溫 家 寶 的 宏 觀 調 控 不 搞 一 刀 切 ， 但 是 ， 很 肯 定 的 ， 炒 賣 房 地 產 一 定 是 溫 總 的 打 壓 目 標 。 一 方 面 銀 行 收 緊 銀 根 ， 不 借 錢 給 房 地 產 公 司 ， 另 一 方 面 又 迫 持 有 大 量 空 置 土 地 的 房 地 產 公 司 馬 上 開 發 土 地 建 樓 房 ， 長 期 空 置 土 地 會 被 罰 款 ， 甚 至 充 公 土 地 。 中 央 雙 管 齊 下 ， 資 金 不 足 的 房 地 產 公 司 必 然 倒 閉 。
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Male Sex Hormone May Affect Stock Trades
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID
Monday, April 14, 2008
WASHINGTON -- The hormone that drives male aggression and sexual interest also seems able to boost short term success at finance. But what seems to start out well can turn bad, with elevated testosterone levels over several days possibly leading to irrational risk-taking, according to researchers at the University of Cambridge in England.
"If people want to get practical, it would be good for both banks and the financial system as a whole if we had more women and older men in the markets," said John M. Coates, lead author of a study appearing in this week's issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Such a change would produce a much more stable financial system, said Coates, a research fellow in the university's department of physiology, development and neuroscience.
Coates and Joe Herbert studied male financial traders in London, taking saliva samples in the morning and evening. They found that levels of two hormones, testosterone and cortisol, affected traders.
Those with higher levels of testosterone in the morning were more likely to make an unusually big profit that day, the researchers found.
Testosterone, best known as the male sex hormone, affects aggression, confidence and risk-taking.
Cortisol is tied to uncertainty, novelty and unpredictability, "which pretty much describes a trader's life," Coates said in a telephone interview.
Coates and Herbert's study comes less than two weeks after U.S. researchers reported that young men shown erotic pictures were more likely to make a larger financial gamble than if they were shown a picture of something scary, such as a snake, or something neutral, such as a stapler.
Money and women trigger the same brain area in men, those researchers said.
One member of that team, Camelia Kuhnen, an assistant professor at the Kellogg School of Finance at Northwestern University, said Coates and Herbert's findings "are very interesting and they help support the claim that emotion influences financial decisions."
But she cautioned that the findings don't prove a causal link between testosterone and profitability.
Kuhnen, who was not part of Coates and Herbert's team, termed the idea that long-term high testosterone levels can lead to irrational risk-taking "an interesting hypothesis."
Coates said he worked as a Wall Street trader during the dot.com bubble in the 1990s when millions of dollars were invested in new Internet companies, many of which later collapsed.
He said trader behavior he observed didn't make sense in terms of economic or game theory, "everyone seemed to be on a drug."
Even in airport bars the crowd would be ignoring baseball to watch and cheer financial reports on television, Coates said.
That prompted him to begin a study of the behavior, which didn't seem to affect women.
In hormone research there is the "winner model," based on both human and animal activity, in which competitors have rising testosterone levels. When one wins, his hormone levels increase even more, while they fall in the loser.
That can give the winner an advantage in aggression and risk-taking in the next competition, a positive feedback, he explained. But after a while the effect overreaches and the male begins making stupid decisions.
"I wondered if that was what was going on in the financial markets," he said.
The London study indicated that hormone levels in the traders were both responding to financial events and influencing them.
Their conclusion:
"Cortisol is likely, therefore, to rise in a market crash and, by increasing risk aversion, to exaggerate the market's downward movement. Testosterone, on the other hand, is likely to rise in a bubble and, by increasing risk taking, to exaggerate the market's upward movement."
And that, Coates and Herbert wrote, "may help explain why people caught in bubbles and crashes often find it difficult to make rational choices."
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
孤星 (我和僵尸有个约会 Ⅲ 插曲)
曲：张崇基 词：倩如
编：麦皓轮 唱：陈启泰
时空交错 百般爱恨
几多凄美故事
而人间魔界 爱的引力
能突破界限
从没有迷信宿命
却永远难违天意
其实我亦有心事 你不会知
如若某天终不禁
深深一吻透心
连成一体血脉
不理种下福祸
来日里齐轮回那境地
彼此变一对
总不可吻下去
怕最终不可挽回
梦魇千万年
虚空的孤星
没法相认 痛苦莫名
时光飞闪 百般爱念
几多心醉片段
而人间烟火 最终有限
难越过生死
从没有迷信宿命
却永远难违天意
其实我亦有心事 你可会知
如若某天终不禁
深深一吻透心
连成一体血脉
不理种下福祸
来日里齐轮回那境地
彼此变一对
总不可吻下去
怕最终不可挽回
梦魇千万年
虚空的孤星
没法相认 痛苦莫名
总不可吻下去
怕最终不可挽回
梦魇千万年
虚空的孤星
没法相认 痛苦莫名
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
重生 (我和僵尸有个约会 Ⅲ 插曲)
唱：何晶晶
曲：刘以达
词：黄文广
似梦片段正在发生
心跳感觉愈难自禁
一笑一语多迷人吸引
身边有你伴着行
甜蜜是温暖声音
犹令我在这刻如重生
似梦似幻却又最真
心里感应愈来愈近
紧闭双眼跟情人一吻
真心意最是动人
无言地交托一生
回谢你是勇敢和诚恳
无限宇宙远大无涯
在这虚渺花花世界
也许真正的爱才是伟大
重拾美妙放浪情怀
是你使我开展眼界
看清方向找到明日那路牌
漆黑天空
浮现闪闪星火
愈是漆黑 星愈璀璨
明亮发光
漆黑之中
燃着浪漫恋火
但愿相依一直相爱
唯独你是最爱
似梦似幻却又最真
心里感应愈来愈近
紧闭双眼跟情人一吻
真心意最是动人
无言地交托一生
回谢你是勇敢和诚恳
无限宇宙远大无涯
在这虚渺花花世界
也许真正的爱才是伟大
重拾美妙放浪情怀
是你使我开展眼界
看清方向找到明日那路牌
漆黑天空
浮现闪闪星火
愈是漆黑 星愈璀璨
明亮发光
漆黑之中
燃着浪漫恋火
但愿相依一直相爱
唯独你是
漆黑天空
浮现闪闪星火
愈是漆黑 星愈璀璨
明亮发光
漆黑之中
燃着浪漫恋火
但愿相依一直相爱
唯独你是最爱
Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2008
PICTURE: Chinese technicians learn Airbus assembly expertise on first German A320
By Aimée Turner
16/04/08
Work parties of Chinese technicians destined to start building the first Airbus single-aisle aircraft in the People's Republic later this year are gaining vital experience on the first A320 ever to be assembled in Germany.
The manufacturer's Finkenwerder, Hamburg plant - where final assembly of the A321 and progressively A319s and A318s has taken place since 1991 - will during 2008 extend its capabilities to produce 10 A320 aircraft - until recently exclusively assembled at Airbus's Toulouse plant.
The first example, destined for Virgin America, is coming down the line and due to be delivered in May.
Finkenwerder, where large subassemblies of every Airbus aircraft are also manufactured, is central to the ramp-up of the single-aisle model output, which is heading for a new targeted record of 40 aircraft a month by the end of 2008.
Airbus reports that around 180 Chinese technicians are based in Finkenwerder and Toulouse to allow them to learn the assembly techniques which will be applied at the Airbus A319/A320 final assembly plant in Beijing's port city of Tianjing.
Airbus last year concluded a deal with China to establish the final-assembly plant that is due open in August, delivering its first aircraft in the first half of 2009. In October 2006 China placed an order for 150 A320-family aircraft.
Last year, Airbus said its Chinese facility would produce two aircraft a month by the end of 2009, rising to four in 2011. These were included in the targeted total monthly tally of 40 A320 family aircraft - scheduled at that time to be achieved by the end of 2009.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
G-7 Countries Acknowledge a Difficult Time and Vow Cooperation to Ride it Out
ジャパン・ブリーフ/FPCJ, No. 0822
April 15, 2008
Finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of 7 industrialized countries who met in Washington on April 11 acknowledged the deterioration of a short-term outlook for the world economy and a longer-than-expected disruption of the international financial market. In a communiqué issued after the meeting they also expressed concern over the possible impact of sharp fluctuations of major currencies, the U.S. dollar in particular, on the financial and economic stability and declared that they would closely monitor the market and take coordinated action as needed.
Meeting in the midst of the deepening credit crisis in the United States, they devoted most of their discussion to the instability of financial markets and the uncertain future of the world economy. To ride out the difficult time, the ministers and governors stressed the importance of coordinated actions by monetary authorities. They also welcomed the move on the part of private-sector financial institutions to augment their capital bases on their own.
The initiatives agreed upon at the G-7 meeting, however, appear to have stopped short of convincing the financial market and the broader public, who are not reassured about the restoration of financial stability any time soon. Although a stronger dose of measures to combat the worsening situation was being sought, the U.S. in particular refused the policy of using public funds to end the financial meltdown triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis. Movements on stock markets on April 14, the first trading day after the G-7 meeting, indicated the disappointment in the market.
As for reinforcement of the capital-bases of banking institutions by public funds, Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga left it to the judgment of the U.S. policymakers whether to take a step further to intervene in the credit crisis. Apparently with the special financing for Bear Stearns by the Federal Reserve on his mind, Nukaga stated that the U.S. was already stepping up public intervention: “The U.S. is resolutely meeting the challenge to work out difficult issues,” he said
For Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who assumed the post only two days before the G-7 meeting, this was his first international meeting of key importance as central bank chief. “A newcomer as I am, I intend to explain the state of the Japanese economy in international forums. I have renewed my resolve to make my contribution to the world economy,” he said in a press conference in Washington.
Japanese Press Commentaries
Major newspapers were generally skeptical about the result of the G-7 meeting and called for bolder actions. (In alphabetical order of major newspapers which editorially commented on the subject, all on April 13)
【Both treatment and prevention needed for a bubble】(Asahi Shimbun) “The U.S Federal Reserve is weak in awareness on this point. For it thinks that whether a rise in asset prices is a bubble or not can only be judged after it is over. The Fed holds that it is inappropriate to try to prevent a bubble from forming by monetary policy, making it its basic policy to concentrate on ‘treatment’ of the post-bubble situation. . . . Newly-appointed Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is distancing himself from the U.S. idea, in favor of carrying out a monetary policy, even if it has some limitations, that pays attention to the disequilibrium created by a bubble. Expectation that low interests will continue over a long time is said to be one cause of the bubble that frequently haunts the world. How can it be resolved? The G-7 should deepen discussion on this kind of fundamental question in the future.”
【U.S as seismic center should make up its mind】(Mainichi Shimbun) “After all, it depends on how far the government and central bank (Federal Reserve) of the United States, the seismic center of the deepening financial crisis, will go in coping with it. . . . Once a chain reaction of crises sets in, there is a fear that it could trigger a plunge of the dollar and a catastrophe to the world economy and the cost to contain it will soar beyond what is imagined. . . . A decisive action of Washington is hoped for.”
【Cooperative action by G-7 is sought to prevent expansion of crisis】(Nikkei) “The G-7 meeting came out to show the resolve of the authorities of Japan, the United States and Europe to tackle the problem with a strong sense of crisis. . . . However, it hardly seems that a sufficient answer has been presented to wipe out the anxiety prevailing on the market. It remains to be seen if the current crisis with its subterranean rumbling can be ridden out (only with the outcome of the meeting). . . . What action will be taken beyond words like solidarity and cooperation? That’s the point the highly nervous is watching.”
【G-7 should work closely together to overcome the crisis】 (Sankei Shimbun) “The United States has taken measures one after another, such as steep interest cuts and a massive supply of money by the Federal Reserve and tax rebates and mortgage refinancing by the administration. . . . The financial market is skeptical about their effects. In order to reassure the market, public funds should be infused, even though the Bush administration remains cautious about it with the presidential election approaching.”
【G-7 must take all steps to reverse downturn】(Yomiuri Shimbun) “The G-7 statement is unclear about what kinds of specific measures should be taken to overcome the deepening crisis. It says the G-7 members will "continue working closely together." But it stops short of citing specific measures, merely saying that each nation is committed to "taking action...consistent with our respective domestic circumstances. Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga told the United States that Washington needs to keep "all possible options" open, with the aim of solving the subprime loan crisis. Nukaga's remark seems to have been intended to mean that the United States should consider using public funds to defuse the crisis, with the bitter lesson learned from the collapse of Japan's bubble economy in mind. . . . No one is sure whether--and how--the world economy will be stabilized. Can workable measures be immediately carried out to end what is being called the greatest postwar financial crisis? The G-7 statement is a start for the daunting task assigned to the group in achieving the target.”
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经济战争之八国联军：中国只有强大才会有更好的家，落后就要挨打挨骂！
高冬梅
2008年04月16日（星期三）
自强不息以繁荣昌盛我的祖国
西方国家这次为什么会如此的团结？欧洲的德国、法国，一般是不会冒着这样的风险得罪中国这个经济大国的。伊拉克战争时德国和法国都和中国站在一边，不支持美国对伊动武。为伊拉克而得罪美国，不符合他们的国家利益啊。法国10年前为了不得罪中国，终止了对台军售，损失了几十亿的收入。而为什么今天会冒着这么大的风险公然与中国为敌？难到就是为了和自己根本不相干的西藏和奥运？
而另一个值得让人思考的问题是，一向是西方老大的美国，为什么这一次这么低调？让英、法、德在前台唱主角？对于西藏，西方国家很清楚，再怎么闹，中国也不可能做出让步。对于奥运，他们也很清楚，就算西方国家没有一个领导人出席北京奥运会，中国也就是面子上过不去罢了，对中国有实质影响吗？没有。
所以，西藏只是一个幌子，奥运也只是一个幌子。那么他们到底想从中国得到什么？
西方国家正面临着10年来经济陷入衰退的危险，他们需要有一个有实力的国家为这次西方经济的衰退买单。不言而喻，他们不约而同的想到了中国。 做为一个普通老百姓，我对国际经济没有什么研究，但2008年一开始我还是隐约感到中国经济面临的危险，现在也就想起了温总理说过的一句话：2008年也许是中国经济最困难的一年。现在想起正在进行的这场闹剧，真的有点让人毛骨悚然了。美国不是低调，是很冷静，他们早已经不露声色的出招了：
1、美元贬值。因为美元贬值，人民币升值，中国16000亿美元的外汇储备已经人间蒸发了3000亿美元，而且还在继续蒸发中。更要命的是，由于人民币升值，中国出口产品成本增加，沉重的打击中国的出口，许多企业面临倒闭的危险。因为中国企业的倒闭，西方国家生产企业就可以开始生产复苏。
2、通过高油价以拖跨中国经济。中国经济的高速发展需要大量的进品原油，而西方国家则不断的提高石油储备，造成高油价一直持续，以增加中国经济建设的成本。这就是美国为什么要打伊拉克、打伊朗的原因：控制石油就是控制了经济命脉。
3、助涨中国金融泡沫。人民币升值，大量热钱自然要涌入中国，造成中国高成本、高币值的经济泡沫。或许这就是为什么政府就算是背着千夫所指都绝不救市的原因，就是为了打击国际投机资本在中国的恶意圈钱行为，而另一方面却不得不面对成千上万痛不欲生的股民的唾骂而有可能造成国内社会动荡的危险。现在看了，什么西藏事件、抵制奥运都是不足为道的事。
所以，“西藏”和“奥运”只是西方国家绑架的两个“人质”，他们真正的目的不是西藏，也不是奥运，而是以此为要挟，要中国为他们的经济衰退买单。不买单：搞乱你，要死大家一起死。买单：坐下来谈，你答应我我就息事宁人！
中国政府的冷静是对的，死死抓住经济建设这个中心不动摇才是关键。经济如果一跨，那就什么都跨了。 国民要冷静，要相互理解，不要给政府出难题。还是那句话：发展才是硬道理，压倒一切的是稳定。一个普通的中国人都能预料到，我相信政府能从容应对。我们要支持政府打赢这场表面上看起来是舆论战，而事实上是经济的战争。
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
八国联军(Eight-Power Allied Forces)是指1900年（庚子年）以军事行动侵入中国的英、法、德、俄、美、日、意、奥的八国联合军队。前期由英国海军将领西摩尔率领，开始时总人数约3万人，后来有所增加。此事件最后以中国战败，联军占领首都北京、清廷政府逃往陕西西安，谈和后中国付出庞大赔款为终。
八国联军侵华
联军进犯:
随着义和团运动在直隶和京津地区的迅猛发展，外国列强多次胁迫清政府予以镇压。1900年4月，义和团刚在北京近郊发展起来，俄国公使就提出镇压。美、英、法、德各国公使也奉本国政府密令，联合照会清政府“剿除义和团”，并将舰队聚集大沽口进行威胁。5月间，义和团在京津一带迅速发展，越来越多的清军士兵参加义和团，以端王载漪为首的排外势力在清政府内占据上风。各国公使眼看清政府已无法控制形势，总理衙门也“无力说服朝廷采取严厉的镇压措施”，便策划直接出兵干涉。5月28日，英、法、德、奥、意、日、俄、美八国在各国驻华公使会议上正式决定联合出兵镇压义和团，以“保护使馆”的名义，调兵入北京。5月30日至6月2日，八国的海军陆战队400多人，陆续由天津乘火车开到北京，进驻东交民巷。随后，各国继续向中国增兵，各国军舰24艘集结大沽口外，聚集在天津租界的侵略军达2000余人。6月6日前后，八国联合侵华政策相继得到各自政府的批准，侵略中国的战争爆发。
八国侵略军所到之处，烧杀淫掠，残绝人寰。连八国联军总司令瓦德西也供认，“所有中国此次所受毁损及抢劫之损失，其详数将永远不能查出，但为数必极重大无疑”。
义和团运动发生后，列强各国都乘机对中国出兵，进行大肆掠夺。消息传到俄国，沙皇政府认为是侵略中国的大好机会，除积极参加八国联军之外，1900年7月16日，制造了海兰泡惨案，居住在海兰泡的数千名中国人几乎全部被俄军惨杀，泅水逃生的不到百人。17-21日，俄国侵略军又先后将江东六十四屯居民万余人赶至黑龙江边枪杀或用斧头砍死，剩下的被赶入黑龙江淹死，只有极少人泅水得生。8月28日，俄国军队占领齐齐哈尔；9月22日，占领吉林，28日，占领辽阳；10月1日，进入盛京（沈阳）。俄军所到之处，烧杀掳掠，无恶不作。
1900年11月，俄国胁迫奉天将军增祺签订《奉天交地暂且章程》，企图把军事占领合法化。俄军利用军事占领的机会，大肆掠夺中国东北的金矿、煤矿和森林资源。
1900年6月10日，外国侵略军2000多人在西摩尔率领下，由天津向北京进攻，沿途遭到义和团民众的抵抗。11日，义和团与侵略军在落垡车站附近展开白刃战。18日，义和团将进犯廊坊车站的侵略军包围起来，发动攻击，打死打伤侵略军数十人。19日，西摩尔败走天津，途中遭到民众堵截，死伤400人。22日，狼狈退到天津西沽。6月17日，另一支侵略军在大沽登陆，进犯天津，一路处处挨打，直到23日才窃据老龙头车站（现天津车站），并和在西沽的侵略军会合，到达天津租界，向天津城发动进攻。7月6日起，天津战事激烈，张德成领导义和团众在紫竹林与侵略军血战三昼夜。14日，天津失陷。
侵略军向北京进犯以及大沽炮台被攻占的消息传到北京，激起民众的无比愤怒。民众先后将在京挑衅杀人的日本使馆书记生杉山彬和德国公使克林德处死。6月15日到20日，先后向西什库的外国教堂及东交民巷的外国使馆，发起猛烈的攻击，狠狠地打击了外国侵略者。
辛丑条约:
八国联军侵华期间，清政府在民众的压力下，表面上向列强各国“宣战”，暗地里却破坏义和团运动，向侵略军妥协投降。1900年7月14日天津失陷后，清政府8月7日任命李鸿章为全权大臣正式向外国列强乞和。列强各国本想武力瓜分中国，在中国人民的反抗下，没能得逞；同时，各国各有打算，互不相让，矛盾重重，使得它们需要继续利用和维护清政府，通过清政府间接统治中国。
1900年12月，列强各国（除了出兵的八国外，又加上比利时、荷兰、西班牙三国）向清政府提出《议和大纲》，后又订立详细条款，于1901年9月7日在北京正式签字。《辛丑条约》的主要内容：惩办“得罪”列强的官员；派亲王、大臣到德国、日本赔罪；清政府明令禁止中国人建立和参加抵抗侵略军的各种组织；赔款4亿5000万两白银，分39年付清，本息9亿8000万两白银；在北京东交民巷一带设使馆区，各国可在使馆区驻兵，中国人不准在区内居住；平毁大沽炮台以及北京至天津海口的炮台；各国可以在北京至山海关铁路沿线驻兵。《辛丑条约》签订后，中国完全沦为半殖民地。
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Testosterone May Drive Traders to Risks, Riches, Study Finds
By Lisa Rapaport
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Traders who start the morning with high levels of the hormone testosterone, produced in the testes, will probably make more money that day, a study found.
Testosterone creates feelings of confidence and encourages risk-taking that can lead to profit, while another hormone, cortisol, prompts risk aversion when markets are volatile, according to a two-week study of 17 London traders published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
In traders on a winning streak, testosterone will keep rising until the hormone eventually causes manic, irrational behavior, turning the boom into a bust, said study author J.M. Coates, a derivatives trader at Deutsche Bank in New York from 1996 to 2001, during the dot-com bull market.
``I became curious about people's behavior during the dot- com bubble because I didn't think you could explain that market with standard economics,'' said Coates, now a professor at the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge in England. ``It seemed like the effects of a drug, and women didn't seem to be affected by it.''
In today's volatile market, uncertainty will lead to a buildup of cortisol in traders, eventually causing them to perceive danger where none exists, Coates said.
``It's like when you watch a horror movie and the uncertainty about where you're going to see the alien on the ship is a lot scarier than when it actually pops up somewhere,'' Coates said, describing the impact of cortisol.
The hormonal impact on trading behavior may undercut monetary policies designed to curtail an outsized bull or bear market, Coates said. ``This study tells us we need to account for biology to take effective action.''
Risk-Taking and Riches
The study measured traders' hormone levels several times throughout every day for two weeks. Traders with the highest testosterone levels first thing in the morning had the greatest profits.
Traders hyped up on testosterone may take more risks without greater financial success, said Jay Shartsis, director of options trading at R.F. Lafferty & Co. in New York, in an interview about the study. ``Trading and investing are predicated on not taking large risks but doing it in measured stages.''
Risk and profit don't go necessarily hand in hand, said Randy Frederick, director of derivatives at Charles Schwab & Co. in Austin, Texas, in an interview. If testosterone leads to greater risk-taking, ``it means you make more when you win and lose more when you don't.''
``Testosterone I don't think is going to give you a sharpened intellect or better judgment, but if it gives you less inhibition so you can take bigger risks it will pay off nicely when things go well,'' Frederick said.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
王冠一： 供 求 失 衡 油 價 難 下
2008年04月17日（星期四）
即 使 不 少 市 場 人 士 認 為 美 國 經 濟 衰 退 ， 石 油 需 求 勢 必 放 緩 ， 有 助 紓 緩 油 價 上 升 壓 力 ， 但 國 際 油 價 仍 然 冉 冉 上 升 ， 紐 約 期 油 周 二 更 升 至 每 桶 114.03 美 元 ， 再 創 紀 錄 新 高 。
油 價 甫 踏 入 2008 年 便 已 升 破 100 美 元 大 關 ， 其 後 出 現 獲 利 回 吐 ， 曾 回 落 至 90 美 元 之 下 ， 但 近 期 再 展 升 勢 ， 短 短 一 個 月 已 升 了 31% 。 有 越 來 越 多 象 顯 示 美 國 這 個 全 球 最 大 油 消 耗 國 的 經 濟 已 步 入 衰 退 ， 而 國 際 能 源 組 織 （ IEA ） 亦 因 應 美 國 經 濟 放 緩 ， 把 全 球 今 年 每 日 耗 油 量 預 測 減 少 46 萬 桶 ， 至 8720 萬 桶 ， 為 何 油 價 仍 不 跌 反 升 ？
此 消 彼 長 需 求 不 減
油 價 近 日 迭 創 新 高 ， 市 場 主 流 看 法 是 由 供 應 商 扭 曲 所 造 成 ， 包 括 墨 西 哥 因 惡 劣 天 氣 關 閉 原 油 出 口 港 、 尼 日 利 亞 暴 亂 迫 使 意 大 利 油 公 司 Eni 停 產 ， 以 及 俄 羅 斯 聲 稱 石 油 產 能 高 期 已 過 等 。 不 過 ， 真 的 如 此 簡 單 ？
美 國 飽 受 次 按 煎 熬 ， 經 濟 急 速 滑 坡 ， 加 上 汽 油 價 格 暴 升 （ 周 二 已 升 至 每 加 侖 3.386 美 元 新 高 ） ， 不 少 家 庭 改 變 用 車 習 慣 ， 耗 油 量 確 實 減 少 ， 但 全 球 需 求 根 本 未 有 減 少 。 美 國 用 油 減 少 部 份 ， 被 中 印 （ 度 ） 兩 個 經 濟 迅 速 發 展 的 亞 洲 人 口 大 國 需 求 增 加 抵 銷 ， 尤 其 中 國 除 積 極 增 加 石 油 庫 存 外 ， 更 向 外 國 油 公 司 埋 手 ， 國 家 外 管 理 局 早 前 買 入 1.6% 法 國 油 公 司 Total 股 權 ， 日 前 又 斥 10 億 英 鎊 入 股 英 國 石 油 （ BP ） 1% 股 份 ， 可 見 求 油 若 渴 。
石 油 出 口 國 組 織 （ OPEC ） 一 直 以 油 價 高 企 存 有 炒 作 成 份 為 拒 絕 增 產 藉 口 ， 其 實 是 維 護 成 員 國 的 利 益 。 石 油 有 價 ， 油 組 成 員 豬 籠 入 水 ， 經 濟 大 為 改 善 ， 又 何 須 理 會 美 國 咆 哮 而 增 產 遏 油 價 ？ 供 求 繼 續 失 衡 ， 油 價 根 本 無 頂 可 言 ， 筆 者 估 計 ， 油 價 短 線 或 會 因 聯 儲 局 本 月 底 減 息 幅 度 小 於 預 期 ， 美 元 反 彈 而 出 現 回 吐 ， 但 要 重 見 雙 位 數 字 ， 機 會 不 大 。
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曾淵滄： 推 動 內 需 向 農 村 入 手
2008年04月17日（星期四）
昨 日 國 家 統 計 局 公 佈 今 年 首 季 的 經 濟 增 長 數 據 及 物 價 指 數 ， 經 濟 增 長 率 10.6% ， 比 去 年 同 期 減 少 1.1 個 百 分 點 ， 宏 調 算 是 有 點 成 績 ； 首 季 通 脹 率 8% ， 也 算 是 進 步 了 。 但 是 ， 統 計 局 官 員 、 人 民 銀 行 官 員 在 公 佈 上 述 數 據 後 ， 馬 上 說 現 在 仍 未 是 放 鬆 宏 觀 調 控 的 時 候 ， 防 止 物 價 上 漲 仍 是 首 要 任 務 。
今 年 全 國 人 大 開 會 閉 幕 時 ， 溫 總 說 要 將 通 脹 目 標 控 制 在 4.8% ， 今 年 首 季 的 8% 通 脹 率 與 目 標 還 差 很 遠 ， 看 來 宏 調 還 會 再 持 續 。
就 因 為 統 計 局 與 人 行 官 員 的 言 論 ， 使 到 昨 日 港 股 先 升 後 跌 ， 早 上 追 隨 外 圍 上 升 ， 午 後 國 統 局 公 佈 上 述 經 濟 數 據 後 ， 股 價 馬 上 急 轉 而 下 ， 恒 指 高 低 波 幅 達 445 點 ， 最 後 收 市 算 是 微 跌 23 點 。 國 家 統 計 局 公 佈 經 濟 數 據 後 ， 很 快 地 人 民 銀 行 也 宣 佈 提 高 銀 行 存 款 準 備 金 比 率 至 16% ， 繼 續 緊 縮 信 貸 。
幸 好 ， 昨 日 公 佈 的 數 據 中 ， 全 國 零 售 額 上 升 20.6% ， 遠 高 過 經 濟 增 長 率 ， 這 說 明 國 家 在 推 動 宏 調 的 同 時 ， 也 相 當 成 功 地 保 護 零 售 業 ， 即 內 部 消 費 業 。 要 壓 抑 整 體 經 濟 增 長 的 同 時 推 動 內 部 需 求 ， 是 很 不 容 易 做 到 平 衡 的 。
中 移 動 方 向 正 確
不 論 是 從 經 濟 發 展 或 是 從 國 際 外 交 的 角 度 來 看 ， 鼓 勵 內 部 消 費 是 重 要 的 ， 中 國 不 可 能 長 期 永 遠 地 依 賴 出 口 工 業 來 推 動 經 濟 發 展 。 目 前 美 國 經 濟 衰 退 及 人 民 幣 升 值 已 經 為 出 口 工 業 帶 來 壓 力 ， 內 部 消 費 正 好 補 上 這 個 缺 口 。 內 部 消 費 強 ， 中 國 就 是 一 個 全 球 注 視 的 金 礦 ， 足 以 叫 全 球 各 國 的 領 導 人 不 得 不 在 外 交 事 務 上 ， 為 這 13 億 人 口 的 市 場 而 三 思 。
消 費 、 投 資 與 出 口 是 中 國 經 濟 增 長 的 三 頭 馬 車 ， 2007 年 11.4% 的 GDP 增 長 中 ， 消 費 所 佔 的 比 重 已 經 首 次 超 越 投 資 ， 達 4.4% ， 投 資 為 4.2% ， 出 口 佔 2.7% 。
消 費 增 加 的 其 中 一 項 很 重 要 因 素 ， 是 增 加 低 收 入 群 的 收 入 ， 農 村 免 稅 、 免 費 唸 書 … … 刺 激 了 農 民 消 費 ， 增 加 了 消 費 群 眾 ， 中 移 動 （ 941 ） 今 後 的 業 務 重 點 就 是 發 展 農 村 的 生 意 。
當 然 ， 消 費 數 據 的 上 升 ， 其 中 一 部 份 是 物 價 上 升 所 造 成 的 ， 因 此 ， 今 年 溫 總 一 方 面 要 打 擊 通 脹 、 另 一 方 面 要 推 動 內 部 消 費 ， 的 確 是 一 場 巨 大 的 挑 戰 。
今 日 ， 我 開 始 與 香 港 渣 打 銀 行 的 一 群 客 戶 暢 遊 上 海 4 天 ， 這 不 是 一 般 的 旅 遊 ， 而 是 集 旅 遊 與 考 察 為 一 體 ， 將 參 觀 嘉 華 國 際 （ 173 ） 上 海 總 部 、 上 海 通 用 汽 車 、 張 江 科 技 園 、 蘇 通 大 橋 、 保 華 國 際 （ 498 ） 投 資 的 洋 口 港 、 利 福 （ 1212 ） 在 上 海 的 久 光 百 貨 。
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Toyota's Earnings May Fall 20% This Year, Nikkei Says
By Makiko Kitamura and Alan Ohnsman
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp.'s operating profit may decline about 20 percent this fiscal year because of slowing U.S. sales and a stronger yen, the Nikkei newspaper reported.
Japan's biggest automaker may have operating profit of 1.7 trillion yen ($16.7 billion) to 1.8 trillion yen on little- changed sales of 26 trillion yen in the year ending March 31, 2009, the Nikkei reported without saying where it got the information.
Toyota gets more than half its operating profit from the U.S., where sales fell 10.3 percent last month as a weakening economy crimped demand for Lexus LS and Avalon sedans. The yen has gained 9.7 percent against the dollar so far this year, eroding repatriated profits.
``Consumer demand in the U.S. has gone ice cold,'' said Yuuki Sakurai, who helps manage the equivalent of $41.5 billion at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo. ``Growth in emerging markets won't be able to cover that drop in earnings.''
Toyota spokeswoman Shiori Hashimoto declined to comment. The company is scheduled to give a forecast for the current year on May 8 in Tokyo when it publishes results for last fiscal year.
Toyota shares rose as much as 170 yen, or 3.5 percent, to 5,050 yen and traded at 5,020 yen at the 11 a.m. morning break in Tokyo. The shares have dropped 31 percent in the last 12 months.
Investor Relief
``Toyota's possible profit decline is within the range that's already priced into the stock,'' said Koji Endo, a senior analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo, who rates the company ``outperform.'' ``Investors are relieved.''
The Japanese currency traded at 101.9 yen against the dollar as of 11 a.m. in Tokyo. Toyota based its earnings for the first three quarters of last year on an average 117 yen to the dollar. A 1 yen gain in the Japanese currency against the dollar cuts Toyota's annual operating profit by 35 billion yen ($343 million), according to the automaker.
The carmaker's operating profit for the current year will fall 11 percent to 2.1 trillion yen, according to the median of 22 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
In the U.S. sales of Toyota's premium Lexus brand are falling faster than its less-expensive Toyota-brand cars. Lexus vehicles, which sell for an average of $42,000, can contribute almost half of Toyota's U.S. operating profit in some years, company executives have said.
The carmaker's sales are also falling in Europe, where demand for its vehicles dropped 17 percent last month, almost twice as much as the overall market decline.
To counter a slowdown in mature markets, Toyota is introducing new models in China, where it is the fastest-growing overseas carmaker. The Toyota City, Japan-based carmaker said yesterday it may build a new factory in the country, where sales jumped 62 percent last year.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Inflation…it's an invisible hidden tax.
Ron Paul: Inflation Tax
"Inflating is immoral in a sense because it steals. It steals value if you double the money supply and your prices go up twice as much…it's an invisible hidden tax. But the real immorality here is that some people pay higher prices then others. So if you're in the middle class, or especially low middle income, your prices might be going up fifteen percent a year. Somebody on Wall Street working leverage buyouts doesn't have to worry about the rising cost of living. This to me is a immoral act, that is prohibited by the Constitution, and the outcome is always tragic."
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Oil hits record high of $115.07...
Big rally on Wall Street
Stocks jump over 250 points, as better-than-expected earnings reports from Intel and JP Morgan help soothe worries about poor first-quarter results.
By Alexandra Twin
April 16, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks spiked Wednesday, with the Dow rising almost 250 points, as better-than-expected profit reports from Intel, JP Morgan Chase and Coca-Cola reassured investors worried about the quarterly earnings reporting period.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) climbed 2.1%, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index climbed 2.3% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) jumped around 2.8%.
After the close of trade, IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates thanks to strong U.S. sales. (Full story).
Also after the close, eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped forecasts, due to more ad listings and strength in its global businesses, among other factors. (Full story)
Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) and Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) are among the big companies reporting quarterly results before the start of trade on Thursday. Reports are also due on weekly jobless claims, the index of leading economic indicators and the Philadelphia Fed index, a regional reading on manufacturing.
Stocks managed gains Tuesday thanks to some upbeat earnings and a strong regional manufacturing report. That momentum seemed to carry over to Wednesday, as investors breathed a sigh of relief that some of the first-quarter earnings are defying grim expectations.
"The rally is largely in response to the better earnings reports today, especially in the financial sector," said Matt King, chief investment officer at Bell Investment Advisors.
Earnings are on track to have fallen about 14.5% from a year ago, according to the latest Thomson Financial estimates. That's a blended figure, combining expected and reported earnings. So far, just 10% of the S&P earnings are out.
But financial company earnings have been forecast to fall more than 50%, amid the ongoing fallout from the credit and housing market crises.
"Clearly, the market has priced in gloomy financial sector earnings and the year-over-year results have been ugly," said King, "but the key is that results so far have been coming in ahead of expectations."
JP Morgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) reported a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly earnings Wednesday, on a slightly larger-than-expected drop in revenue. Although the company has been hit by the credit crisis and the housing market collapse, it has managed to hold up better than many of its peers. Shares gained 6.7%.
Other bank stocks rallied in tandem including Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), which reported lower earnings that were still above forecasts.
Chipmaker Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) reported lower first-quarter earnings that met estimates on higher sales that topped estimates late Tuesday. Intel also forecast second-quarter revenue in a range that could beat analysts' current estimates. Shares jumped 5.8% Wednesday.
More earnings. Dow stock Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) reported higher sales and earnings that topped estimates Wednesday morning. Shares were little changed.
Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500) reported a $1.1 billion quarter loss late Tuesday, as it had warned it would a week earlier. The company also said it has concluded its plans to raise $7 billion in capital from private equity firm TPG. (For more on WaMu's shareholder meeting Tuesday, click here.)
Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) reported lower quarterly earnings that nonetheless topped analysts' forecasts. The company's profit was hurt because it had to increase loss reserves, setting aside $2.03 billion to cover higher delinquencies and defaults on mortgages and other loans.
Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners four to one on volume of 890 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers two to one on volume of 1.47 billion shares.
Economic news. In the latest troubling sign for the housing market, new home construction fell more than expected to a 17-year low. Building permits, a measure of builder confidence, also declined. (Full story).
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in March, up from a flat reading in March, but in line with analysts' estimates. The so-called "core" CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, up from a flat reading in March and also in line with forecasts. (Full story).
March Industrial production rose 0.3%, surprising economists who were looking for a decline in the month. Capacity utilization held steady at 80.3% versus forecasts for a read of 80.4%.
In the afternoon, the Fed released its periodic "beige book" reading on the economy, which showed weaker economic conditions over the last few months and tepid consumer spending.
Commodity prices. U.S. light crude oil for May delivery settled at $114.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, closing at a record for the third day in a row. Oil had spiked to a trading record of $115.07 earlier in the session after the government's weekly inventories report showed a surprise drop in crude supplies.
The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas hit an all-time record of $3.399, AAA reported.
COMEX gold for June delivery rose $16.30 to settle at $948.30 an ounce.
Other markets. The dollar hit an all-time low versus the euro and rose against the yen.
Treasury prices fell, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.68% from 3.60% late Tuesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Euro reaches new all-time high of US$1.5978 as euro-zone inflation rises
The Associated Press
April 16, 2008
BERLIN: The euro climbed to a new all-time record on Wednesday after the European Union reported that inflation in the euro zone rose to 3.6 percent in March.
The 15-nation currency traded at US$1.5978 in early evening trading in Europe after the EU's statistical agency, Eurostat, said annual inflation rose on higher prices for transport fuel, heating, dairy products and bread. It was the fastest pace of price increases in 16 years.
The euro topped its previous record of US$1.5912, set on April 10. The 15-nation currency bought US$1.5790 in New York late Tuesday.
Later Wednesday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that American core inflation, which excludes food and energy, posted a 0.2 percent monthly rise in March — in line with analysts' expectations.
Separately, the Commerce Department said construction of new homes and apartments fell to its lowest level in 17 years in March. Building permits also fell in March, signaling more problems ahead for the beleaguered housing industry.
The Fed has been slashing interest rates in an effort to combat the economic slowdown, while the Bank of England has made more modest cuts.
The latest report on euro-zone inflation is likely to muffle any calls for the European Central Bank to lower its interest rate from 4 percent, because the bank's primary mission is to combat inflation. The ECB's refusal to cut rates has put it at odds with the approach of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England.
Lower interest rates can weigh on a nation's currency as traders transfer funds to countries where they can earn better returns, while higher rates are used to curb inflation.
The British pound climbed Wednesday to US$1.9770 from US$1.9619. The dollar dropped to 101.16 Japanese yen from 102.04 yen.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Gold futures rally as dollar falls sharply
By Polya Lesova
April 16, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rallied Wednesday, propelled by sharp weakness in the U.S. dollar, which fell to a new low against the euro.
Gold for June delivery rose $16.30 to end at $948.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Other metals prices also posted strong gains.
"The drop in the U.S. dollar overnight is giving the bulls the upper hand today," said Burton Schlichter, director of trading at New World Trading.
"Also, the move was technically driven when gold traded over $940 an ounce," he said.
The dollar remained under pressure against most major counterparts, notching a fresh low against the euro after mixed U.S. economic data. The euro was changing hands at $1.5957, after rising as high as $1.5977, according to FactSet Research data.
The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, fell 1% to 71.30.
In economic news, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that U.S. home builders started the fewest homes in 17 years, as housing starts plunged 11.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 947,000 in March.
March's rate was the lowest for housing starts since March 1991. Starts were down 36.5% compared with March 2007. The starts figure was much lower than expected on Wall Street, where economists were looking for a drop to 988,000 annualized units.
Separately, the Labor Department reported that inflation rose in March, as energy and food costs gained. After virtually no change in February, the consumer price index in March rose 0.3%, matching estimates from analysts surveyed by MarketWatch.
On Tuesday, gold ended up $3.30, or 0.4%, to $932 an ounce.
"With oil and commodities surging, the dollar continuing to weaken and economic growth slowing, gold's best friend stagflation is a real and growing threat to much of the global economy," said Mark O'Byrne, executive director at Gold and Silver Investments Ltd., in a research note.
The precious metal will likely challenge recent resistance at $950 in the coming days "as investors realize that inflation is not some short-term phenomenon, but rather a medium and possibly long-term problem yet to be priced into the market," O'Byrne said.
Crude-oil futures rose more than $1 to surpass $115 a barrel after data showed a surprising drop in U.S. crude inventories and as the dollar dipped anew, raising oil's attraction as an investment alternative.
Crude oil for May delivery rose to an intraday high of $115.07 a barrel in late afternoon trading, before closing up $1.14, or 1%, at $114.93 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, also a new closing record.
"Weak dollar, stronger gold and stronger crude are really the tones today," said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial.
"I'd anticipate further buying into all things commodity led by crude right now," Oxman said.
Also on the Nymex, May silver futures rallied 47 cents to end at $18.32 an ounce and July platinum futures rose $50.90 at $2,037.30 an ounce. June palladium gained $6.25 at $460 an ounce.
May copper futures surged 10 cents to end at $3.96 a pound.
On the equities side, the Amex Gold Bugs Index soared 5.2% to 475.16 points.
As for the sector's exchange-traded funds, the StreetTracks Gold Trust ETF gained 1.8% to $93.27, the iShares Silver Trust ETF rallied 2.8% to $181.70 and the Market Vectors-Gold Miners ETF surged 4.6% to $51.37.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Biggest grain exporters halt foreign sales
By Javier Blas in London, Isabel Gorst in Moscow and Lindsay Whipp in Tokyo
Published: April 15 2008 19:04 | Last updated: April 16 2008 02:37
The global food crisis intensified on Tuesday as Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters halted foreign sales and rice prices shot to a record high after Indonesia stopped its farmers from selling the grain abroad.
In another sign of turmoil, a big food company in Japan, Nihon Shokuhin Kako, said high corn prices had forced it to buy cheaper genetically modified corn for the first time, breaking a social, though not legal, taboo and signalling that opposition to GM foods could weaken in the face of record food prices.
Meanwhile, fresh wheat export curbs in Kazakhstan, the world’s fifth largest exporter, and the rice bans in Indonesia, threaten to trigger bans in other food exporting countries, which will now face much higher demand from importing countries.
Hussein Allidina, at Morgan Stanley in New York, said pressure for export bans was likely to increase elsewhere as developing countries suffering high inflation tried to combat rising local prices by cutting back on exports of agriculture commodities.
Indonesia – which joins Vietnam, Egypt, China, Cambodia and India in banning foreign sales – was expected to export the grain this year due to a bumper crop. Corn futures prices in Chicago last week hit a record $6.16 a bushel, up 30 per cent in the past three months.
Indonesia’s export ban boosted the price of rice futures in Chicago to a all-time high of $22.17 per 100 pounds, up 63 per cent since January. Wheat prices moved higher to $9.11 a bushel and traders warned prices could rise further as the Kazakhstan ban together with restrictions in Russia, Ukraine and Argentina have closed a third of the global wheat market.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Tony Banbury, WFP’s Regional Director for Asia, “It is increasingly likely that external assistance will be urgently required to avert a serious tragedy.”
WFP warns of potential humanitarian food crisis in DPRK following critically low harvest
Bangkok, 16 April 2008 - The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that time is running out to avert looming food shortages and a potential humanitarian crisis in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) following confirmation of a critically low national harvest stemming in part from last year’s heavy August floods.
“The food security situation in the DPRK is clearly bad and getting worse,” said Tony Banbury, the World Food Programme’s Regional Director for Asia.
“It is increasingly likely that external assistance will be urgently required to avert a serious tragedy,” he said.
Deficit
The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO ) recently projected a 2008 food shortfall in DPRK of 1.66 million metric tons, a near doubling of the 2007 deficit, and the highest since 2001.
Prices of staple foods in the capital Pyongyang have doubled over the past year and are now at their highest recorded levels since 2004. Rice now costs around 2,000 won/kg (up from 700-900 won/kg in April 2007) and maize costs around 600 won/kg (350 won/kg in April 2007).
Drastic price rises for pork (now around 5,500 won/kg), potatoes (5,000 won/kg) and eggs (200 won/piece) make these commodities a luxury for most people in DPRK. An average monthly worker’s salary is approximately 6,000 won/month.
Hunger may spread
“The rapid rise in the real price of food for persons living in the DPRK confirms WFP’s fears that the DPRK may suffer deeper and more widespread hunger this year,” said Jean-Pierre de Margerie, WFP Country Director in Pyongyang.
“Now it takes a third of a month’s salary just to buy a few days worth of rice. Families and especially vulnerable persons will suffer from lack of access to food, eat fewer meals and have a poorer diet, increasing their vulnerability to diseases and illness.”
DPRK government statistics, analyzed by FAO, indicate that 2007 agricultural production came to only three million metric tons of cereals (rice, maize, wheat, barley and potatoes).
This represents a 25 percent decrease from the previous year and the lowest overall harvest output since 2001 – when a summer drought caused massive harvest failure across the country.
Chronic food shortfalls
While the DPRK has long suffered chronic food shortfalls due to economic decline and an unfavorable agricultural situation, last year’s heavy floods have brought increased urgency to the problem.
DPRK agricultural statistics indicate decreases in rice and maize production (down 25 percent and 33 percent respectively), as these crops were at their peak growing season when the floods struck.
Food-producing provinces most heavily affected by the floods also show the largest drop in production; the southern-most provinces of South and North Pyongyang, South and North Hwanghae and Kangwon all suffered losses of 23-33 percent compared to the previous year.
"Cereal bowl"
Known as “the Cereal Bowl”, significant harvest reductions in these regions will mean food shortages are felt throughout the country. “WFP has long warned that last year’s floods would exacerbate DPRK’s chronic food problem and we are now seeing the effects in the markets,” said de Margerie. “It is obvious that more food imports and external food aid will be needed this year.”
Until 2005, WFP was assisting over six million people in DPRK, about a quarter of the total population. Since 2006, following a DPRK government decision to reduce its operation, WFP has been assisting 1.1 million of the most vulnerable persons, mainly women and children.
Until the scheduled end of the food assistance programme in August 2008, WFP plans to distribute 45,000 metric tons of food in 50 of the DPRK’s 203 counties. WFP estimates that more than 6.5 million people in DPRK suffer from food insecurity – a figure that can be expected to rise if action is not taken to address the growing food shortages.
“WFP stands ready to do its part to help the people of the DPRK meet their minimum food needs, and avoid a possible return to the tragic circumstances of the past,” said Banbury.
Help needed
“But WFP cannot solve the problem on its own. The DPRK government needs to provide the necessary operating conditions for aid agencies so that donors have confidence that their donations will be used for the intended purposes. And donors need to do their part to ensure that the people of DPRK do not go hungry, or worse.”
WFP’s warning and call for action comes just as the country is about to enter its annual agricultural ‘lean season’ (when households’ food stocks are at their lowest), which has started earlier as a result of last year’s low harvest and will likely be harsher this year following a dry winter (less precipitation).
Malnutrition rates are already high: 37 percent of young children are chronically malnourished, and one third of mothers are malnourished and anemic, according to the last large-scale WFP/UNICEF survey.
“WFP takes the situation very seriously and we will be intensifying discussions with the DPRK Government and major donors that have indicated a willingness to provide food aid to DPRK,” said Banbury.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Chinese textile exporters drop dollar pricing to offset yuan appreciation
GOV.cn
Monday, April 7, 2008
Chinese textile exporters are turning to non-U.S. dollar currencies in pricing and settlement to offset rising losses from the yuan's appreciation against the greenback.
The majority of more than 1,000 textile producers said they had switched to other currencies in a survey by Web Textiles.Com, a major textile information website.
Those still pricing their exports in U.S. dollars had raised the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar in their contracts, or cut the validity term from up to two months to just a week, according to the website.
The Chinese currency has risen more than 4 percent against the dollar this year, with its central parity rate setting a high of 7.002 against the dollar on Monday.
The continuous appreciation, together with rising costs from export tax rebate cuts and more expensive labor and raw materials, has squeezed profits in China's textile industry.
A survey by China National Textile and Apparel Council last month showed that two thirds of the textile companies surveyed reported an average profit margin of 0.62 percent.
Raising prices is another choice for exporters, but the risk is losing market share amid fierce competition, said website editor-in-chief Wang Qianjin.
"We're losing out to neighboring countries like India, Pakistan and Vietnam, whose textile exports are now much cheaper than ours," said Wang Gongzhu, general manager of the east China-based textile producer Huamao Group. "We surely want the prices up, but we have little room to move."
The yuan's exchange rate will be kept "basically stable at a reasonable, balanced level" with more flexibility, Monday's Financial News quoted Yi Gang, vice governor of China's central bank, as saying.
A rising yuan could stimulate industrial upgrading and innovation, said Yi, who added its impact on exports and employment should be considered.
Chinese textile and garment exports in the first two months rose only 9.6 percent from the same period last year, compared with previous year-on-year increases of about 20 percent.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Revealed! The Govt.'s Secret Plan to Cure the Debt Crisis
By Aaron Task
Apr 15, 2008
Facing long-term debt obligations of $59 trillion, including Medicaid, Social Security, and other mandates, the government has few viable options -- and no sane politician is going to support massive tax hikes and/or cutbacks in the social safety net.
But the ongoing credit crisis, while a short-term concern and minor in comparison, is providing policymakers with a roadmap for dealing with our long-term obligations: Devalue the dollar!
Yes, while Ben Bernanke talks tough about inflation and Treasury Secretary Paulson robotically repeats the "strong dollar policy is in our national interest" mantra, their actions speak much louder than their words.
Again, no (sane) policymaker is going to publicly state that America's goal is to undermine its currency -- and we're only half-seriously suggesting it is an unstated policy. But devaluing the dollar lowers the value of future debt payments (which are fixed), and thus presents a way out of our national debt crisis.
Of course, such a policy has profound implications for debt holders, savers, and people living on fixed incomes. It also threatens to turn on its head the advice to avoid debt we typically hear from financial advisors, parents, and personal finance experts.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Sub-prime fallout not over, says CHAMP
April 17, 2008
There is still more fallout to come from the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States and the consequent credit crunch, according to private equity firm CHAMP.
CHAMP Private Equity managing director Joseph Skrzynski told an American Chamber of Commerce in Australia luncheon on Thursday that so far the US banking system had written off about $US300 billion as a result of the crisis.
"The new buzzword among US banking sector analysts is `confession time'," Mr Skrzynski said.
"And the greatest confessor so far has been UBS, one of the biggest banks in the world ... which has taken a $US38 billion ($A40.48 billion) hit to its balance sheet on shareholders' funds of $US56 billion ($A59.65 billion)."
Merrill Lynch had taken a $US25 billion ($A26.63 billion) hit on shareholders' funds of $US39 billion ($A41.54 billion).
"Neither of those organisations, and indeed many others, will in two years' time be anything like the way we've known them for the last two years," Mr Skrzynski said.
"But the scary thing is that we really haven't touched bottom yet.
"Other big banks, particularly in Europe, are yet to `fess up to their full exposures - exposures not just to sub-prime residential mortgages but also to the sub-prime corporate debt, consumer credit, and the big unknown: the credit derivatives instruments and the counter-party risks involved with those.
"The last is possibly the scariest."
Mr Skrzynski said some commentators said there may be at least another $US300 billion ($A319.56 billion) in write-offs to come.
Furthermore, the ripple effects of the credit contagion combined with economic slow-down would see rising defaults in automotive loans, credit cards and low-document loans and other areas.
It was calculated that non-bank losses would easily exceed the losses of the regulated banking sector, so the total losses incurred would rise above $US1.5 trillion ($A1.6 trillion).
Mr Skrzynski said the higher cost of securing funds now meant that private equity was unlikely to enter into as many "mega deals" of $20 billion to $30 billion.
"For the next couple of years, you won't see the big MBOs (management buy-outs) overseas or in Australia," he said.
Private equity was also unlikely to target well-run companies like airline Qantas because it could no longer afford to pay the large premiums that it could when securing funds was cheap.
"What will continue, I think, is where there's a troubled company where the investors have deserted it, its price is down because they just don't believe that management and the board of directors are going to turn it around ... that will continue to be a target for private equity in the future," Mr Skrzynski said.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
中国股民内心的痛 股市伊于胡底
中央社记者郭萍英上海特稿
2008年04月15日
中国股市跌跌不休，跌得投资人晕头转向，荷包一缩再缩，成为股民们内心共同的痛，股市「伊于胡底」，底部到底在那里更成为大众关切的话题。
沪股在去年二月底挑战三千点大关，牛气冲天，一路过关斩将，短短半年左右的时间，接连突破四千点、五千点及六千点关卡，深圳股市也不遑多让，声势凌厉；一时之间，中国股市成为全球最火红的股市，全球资金迅速汇集中国，有如三千宠爱集一身，股民乐不可支，大家每天见面的问候句多半是「买了没、又涨了、赶快买」。
曾几何时，就在沪股突破六千点上达六千一百点左右，股民们正兴高采烈、引颈企盼何时会突破七千点时，大盘突然急转直下，正当许多股民还沈浸中国股市荣景之际，沪股却已轻易的跌破六千点，深圳股市也止涨回跌。中国股市涨跌之间有如当时的气候，说变就变，由热转冷。
其后，沪深股市一路走疲，今年以来可说是跌多涨少，以沪股为例，六千点失守后，有如泄了气的皮球，指数接连掼破五千点、四千点。时序进入四月份，本该是春暖花开的季节，但股指却频频破底，直逼去年二月底三月间的三千点关卡。
股市跌跌不休，股民们荷包严重失血，根据上海证券交易所统计，超过一半的股票市值早已不到之前高点的一半，换言之，股民们的投资至少缩水一半以上，投资损失可说是非常的惨重；股民因严重亏损引发身心问题而上医院求诊也早已不是新闻。
如今，股民们关心的是，股市到底伊于胡底；证券专业媒体报导的重点几乎也都是将焦点锁定在那里才是底部。申银万国认为，投资人信心不足，新一轮卖压出笼，杀低在所难免，沪股恐怕将考验三千点；东方早报的分析明确指出，沪股近期可能考验三千点，但是底部在那里尚难预料。
不管专家怎么看，股民们纳闷的是，二零零八北京奥运不是马上就要在八月间登场，怎么股市还是跌跌不休、毫无起色。
照理说，北京主办奥运，就是要彰显中国这几年各项建设的繁荣与进步，众所周知，股市被公认是经济的橱窗，沪深股市一直软趴趴，如何能凸显中国的繁荣与进步。在数以亿计的中国股民的心中，股市的兴衰彷彿与中国站起来与否有着密不可分的关系。
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
Don't Control Price, Raise Interest Rate
Andy Xie
16 April 2008
China is in an all out battle against inflation. But, the approach-price control may be wrong. China is too open to have independent prices. Fuel shortage suggests that such policy cannot last long. China may have to come back to hiking interest rate while tightening capital account control. The following is in the current issue of Caijing Magazine.
The price of Thai white rice, a benchmark for international rice trade, surged 30% to $790/ton on March 31st, prompted by news of various countries restricting food exports. Its price has doubled since end of 2007 and nearly quadrupled from the level in 2003. The FAO food price index has roughly doubled in the past two years. The price trend for food at present bears eerily resemblance to oil price at $50/barrel-the point that oil market began to attract large amounts of speculative capital. Investment funds that specialize in the futures of agricultural commodities are becoming popular. Soon, speculative capital may take over the pricing of food products and cause food price to double from the current level.
At the same time, China's labor market may enter a phase of re-pricing. Between 1995-2005, the wage for unskilled workers in China barely changed despite the economy rising at 8% per annum. This is because the excess supply of labor kept the labor market a buyer's market. Chinese workers competed against each other and settled for wage at a minimum acceptable level. Hence, they didn't share in the upside in an expanding economy. The low wage has caused global production to relocate to China on a massive scale and has also triggered robust growth of the service sector. At the same time, the government has engaged in massive infrastructure expansion to absorb surplus labor. All three developments have rapidly expanded labor demand. Some sort of turning point has been reached. The labor market now seems no longer a buyer's market. For the first time, wage, especially for youth labor, is now under enormous upward pressure for two reasons.
First, the cost of living has increased enormously. The consumption basket of unskilled workers or their families has a high share of food products. The enormous inflation of food products has decreased real wage for such workers. Hence, the nominal value of the minimum acceptable wage has increased. Second, the demand for youth labor exceeds supply at the current wage level. The 'shortage' of labor in Pearl River Delta, which has gotten worse this year, really reflects that factories are not paying market wage. The two factors suggest that China's unskilled labor requires re-pricing for market to reach equilibrium. Mean reversion suggests that the wage level needs to reclaim the lost growth relative to GDP since1995. I think that wage for unskilled labor in China will likely rise by 50% between 2008-2010. As labor productivity growth is about 8% per annum and total factor productivity 4% per annum, the re-pricing of labor cannot be absorbed by productivity growth, even if capital's income share in GDP declines significantly, and will cause significant inflation.
Inflation is a slow moving variable. When it becomes visible, it is too late to stop it. Chinese government has announced an inflation target of 4.8% for 2008. Its purpose is to contain inflation expectation. While the intention is good, the government should be careful about losing credibility. If the population perceives that the government's effort in fighting inflation is rhetoric, not action, they may take actions to defend themselves. In the past episodes of high inflation, Chinese people engaged in hoarding essential goods to fight against the devaluation of paper money. Such behavior can exacerbate inflationary pressure and cause a vicious spiral.
It is probably too late to stop inflation now. Indeed, the re-pricing of labor should not be stopped at all. It is good for social stability that Chinese labor is claiming their share in China's prosperity. It also will force businesses to use labor more efficiently. Ten years ago, I visited an electronics assembly factory. 'They are all eighteen', the manager pointed at rows and rows of young girls hunching over their worktables. 'In a few years, their fingers will not be so nimble. We will get a new batch'. Such callous remarks summarized the attitude of some businesses in treating Chinese labor. They believed in eternal labor surplus.
When you walk into a high-end restaurant, a line of waiters greet you. This is purely decorative use of labor. Such wasteful use of labor reflects low labor cost. In the West, the daily income of a waiter is 2-4 times of a customer's meal cost. In high-end restaurants for business meals in China, it is 0.3-0.5 times. This is why restaurant owners find it lucrative to use so much labor for decorative purposes to attract business.
On the other hand, many workers in forties or even thirties are retired. When you walk through cities like Chongqing or Chengdu, you see crowds of such retirees playing mahjong on the sidewalks. When youth labor is plentiful, businesses prefer to hire them, because they are easy to train and can adapt to the rapidly changing environment better. However, a bit more training can turn the retired middle-aged workers productive. It is totally irrational for a society to leave such people in their prime idle.
The re-pricing of China's labor doesn't mean that China's labor is no longer cheap. It is still cheap, just less cheap. Nor does it mean absolute labor shortage in China. As youth labor inflates in cost, businesses will make labor use more efficient and find it profitable to train middle-aged workers. Chinese economy is wasteful in using resources. The worst is in wasting labor. The re-pricing of labor in the coming years will force the economy to become more efficient. When businesses restructure their labor use, China will not lose as much competitiveness as the rising labor cost suggests.
Surging labor cost cannot be controlled by the Chinese government. Nor could it food price. Agriculture has been unprofitable around the world for decades. Governments in developed economies have provided massive subsidies to farmers to keep them in business. The introduction of biofuel in response to surging oil price was the catalyst for the surging food price. The United States introduced subsidies for turning corn into ethanol as a gasoline substitute. It established a linkage between the prices of agricultural commodities and oil. As oil price has kept surging on speculative capital, it has lifted the prices of agro commodities.
Instead of playing through oil, speculative capital is now moving into agricultural commodities directly. The price surge in the past three months has much to do with the setting-up of investment funds that buy futures of agricultural commodities. What's occurring in agro commodities now bears striking similarities to the oil market when its price hit $50/barrel. The momentum is attracting financial capital. Even though the futures market is not deep, as capital flows in and prices surge, the market becomes larger and more liquid, which attracts more capital. Big investment banks are beginning to provide research support and trading instruments. More and more analysts will put sensational price targets on agro commodities like they did on oil. Like oil before, agricultural commodities may become a big bubble in 2008.
Financial speculation happens when a market has positive momentum. It is a magnifier of an established trend. Oil, for example, did have strong demand due to the strong global economy. The supply response has been muted as governments control over 80% of oil reserves, and they have low incentives to increase supply when they already have enough money. Financial capital sees the low supply and has kept price surging despite demand weakness. Hence, the support for the oil bubble has switched from demand strength to supply weakness.
Similarly, the fundamentals for agricultural commodities have been improving for the past five years. As mentioned above, the linkage to oil has boosted the fortune of the agro commodities. The food demand for eating has also been improving. Emerging economies have experienced four years of strong growth. They tend to spend their income gains on improving diet, i.e., more meat and dairy products in their food consumption. It means more demand for grain. Despite a weak US economy, emerging economies will continue to grow at a healthy pace, because they have high reserves of foreign exchange and can continue to invest despite export weakness. As fundamentals for agro commodities remain strong and speculative capital lacks alternative outlets, capital will flow into this market and exaggerate the increase of food prices.
Energy and food is the twin scourge for global inflation in 2008. The monetary policy of the Fed is the root cause for all the bubbles in the world. The Fed is printing money to save the US financial system. The monetary expansion is causing dollar depreciation and inflation, which makes commodities attractive. As traditional financial instruments like stock, credit, and bond are in bear markets, excess liquidity has been pouring into commodities. The commodity bubble will burst when the Fed shifts its policy priority to price stability from financial stability. It doesn't appear likely in 2008. The Fed may not even shift its policy in 2009.
It appears that Chinese government can't stop inflation from surging in 2008 or even in 2009. The rise of food price and wage is catch-up increase. Does that mean that the government shouldn't do anything about inflation? It would be very wrong if one concludes that nothing should be done because inflation cannot be stopped in the short term. Inflation can cause instability in three ways. First, the expectation of sustained high inflation can cause businesses to raise prices and workers to demand wage increase. The spiral could last longer beyond the necessary price adjustment of food and labor. The government has to take actions to convince businesses and workers that it will bring down inflation in future. The expectation for low inflation in future will moderate their behavior.
Second, inflation can frighten savers about the value of their bank deposits. Chinese households have Yuan 18 trillion in bank deposits. The deposit rate is four percentage points below inflation at present. Chinese households are losing Yuan 2 billion on the real value of their deposits everyday. The fear for further loss may inspire savers to withdraw deposits from banks and purchase commodities like cooking oil, rice, or toilet paper for value preservation. Hoarding happened in every episode of high inflation in China. Unless something is done, it could happen again and destabilize the country.
There are already many cases of hoarding. In Taipei, consumers queued to buy toilet papers. Hong Kong just saw panic-buying of rice. In China, cooking oil is one favorite for hoarding. Some shops limit customers to one bottle for each purchase. Such practice invites people back tomorrow to buy more. Down this slippery path, China may have to ration essential goods again, setting the country back twenty years in developing a market economy.
Third, people on fixed pay like pensioners, welfare recipients, and students are hit hard by inflation. India, Yemen, Mexico, Burkina Faso and several other countries have had, or been close to, food riots in the last year, something not seen in decades of low global food commodity prices. The US government has a food stamp program to ensure social stability for the low income group. The US's Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that by October, 28 million people will depend upon federal food assistance, up from 26.5 million in 2007. This will be the largest number of people depending on food stamps since the program began in the 1960s. To maintain social stability during surging food price, a government must help the people on fixed pay. If China doesn't take preventive measures, it may see similar disturbances as other countries have seen.
To safeguard stability during inflation, China must protect the value of bank deposits by raising deposit rate above inflation, increase fiscal transfers for the disadvantaged, and avoid price control. Many are worried about attracting hot money if deposit rate is raised. This is a legitimate concern. It can be addressed in two ways. First, China can tighten up capital account control. The recent tightening measures are already having an effect. Underground money shops in Hong Kong now charge up to 10% commission for channeling money into China.
China can and should tighten capital account control. While capital account convertibility is desirable in the long term, a higher priority now is to increase monetary independency. The Fed is pursuing a policy to stabilize its financial system and is tolerating inflation for now. Without monetary independence, inflation can spike out of control in China. One big hole to plug is the allowed HK$ 10,000 purchase of Rmb per day in Hong Kong. The total amount of Rmb deposit in Hong Kong through this channel totaled Rmb 48 billion in February 2008, up from Rmb 30 billion November 2007. The amount is still small but is rising rapidly. It may pose a challenge to the stability of Hong Kong dollar. As Hong Kong people convert their HK dollar into Rmb, the former may vanish. China may have to close this loophole soon for China's and Hong Kong's stability.
To discourage hot money, China can raise long-term deposit rates first. For example, for two-year deposit or longer, China could introduce inflation plus interest rate, similar to the inflation protection bonds or TIPS in the US. Hot money rarely has the patience for a two-year bet. Hence, raising long-term deposit rates will hardly attract more hot money. It serves the purpose as a safe haven for savers who are worried about the vanishing value of their hard-earned money.
China can issue inflation protection bonds like the US government already does. The introduction of such an instrument can improve China's financial stability. Life insurance companies face enormous risks when interest rates fluctuate. Because, their liabilities are fixed in nominal terms and their income depends on interest rates, they can sink into negative equity value like in 1998. The inflation protection bonds can stabilize this part of the financial system. Also, banks can use this market to offer inflation protection deposits, which benefits most households.
China's fiscal situation is excellent now. The fiscal revenue bottomed at 11% of GDP in 1990s. It is now 20%. Further, state-owned enterprises in telecom and financial sectors are flush with profits and can contribute to fiscal revenue if need be. The SoEs were in dire financial condition in 1990s. Chinese government now has plenty of money to protect the disadvantaged during inflation. Steps have already been taken to increase pension payments for retirees and allowances for college students. If need be, more actions should be taken.
In Chinese bureaucratic culture, it is always tempting to use price control to deal with inflation. However, it is very damaging for the economy in the long run and may even cause crisis. Price control is invitation for panic-buying and hoarding, because, it under-prices goods. Rational consumers will buy more under-priced goods, which leads to shortage. The widespread shortage of diesel fuel, for example, is a good example. The prices for processed petroleum products are 30% below crude price. It leads to smuggling of such products into the international market.
China may repeat the mistake in grain market. As international prices surge, imports stop, which pushes up local prices. The government may unload inventories to keep domestic prices low. This is a high risk move for two reasons. First, we don't know the true level of inventory. China imports over 50 million tons of feed meals per annum. It is hard to see how long the inventory can last to replace imports. Second, there could be smuggling of under-priced Chinese grain into surrounding countries in Southeast Asia.
While inflation is picking up, Chinese economy is also slowing. Much of the world is experiencing the same. China, however, is slowing from a high level. If the growth rate drops by 30% to 8%, it is still a good growth rate. China didn't have trouble in the 1990s at a similar growth rate. However, China always gets into trouble when inflation is double digit rate. Hence, China's policy priority should be inflation rather than growth.
Inflation can't be stopped now. But it must be managed to ensure it declining overtime and society remaining stable during the meantime. Raising interest rate is the right approach. Price control is the wrong one.
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The Perfect Storm
Andy Xie
05 Feb 2008
The United States is sliding into recession. Japan seems too. China is tightening aggressively. Oil has soared past $100 per barrel. The stars are lined up for a perfect storm as 2008 begins. Hang Seng Index may drop 20% over the next three months. The market may recover in the second quarter as the Olympic mania affects market sentiment. Before investors can taste the joy of 2008, they must eat bitterness first.
2008 is a turning point in the global economy. The current bull market began in mid-2003: Americans recovered from the '9-11' shock and China recovered from the SARS shock. Both felt a near-death experience and became determined to live it up a bit, just in case. Americans went on a borrow-and-spend binge. The defining picture must be throngs of people rushing through the just-opened doors at Wal-Mart Centers. Chinese threw the money into property and then stock market and watched both rise. The defining picture must be the throngs of people staring up at the tickers screens. The two spent differently but got the same thrill.
Well, every party must end. America's is ending now. China's may have a few innings left but may experience a big hiccup soon as the US burst chills sentiment here and inflation scares Chinese policymakers into taking the away, even though temporarily. The combination may cook up the perfect storm for Hong Kong market.
The bull market depends on rising earnings and cheap capital. The former has benefited from 15% annual growth rate of China's nominal GDP for the past three years and rising share of corporate earnings in the economy due to faster asset appreciation. The macro tightening could take a big bite out of both. The tightening may slow nominal growth rate by 20%. It will reverse the rising trend of profit share in the economy, mainly due to its powerful effects on earnings in the property and financial sector. The growth rate for China's corporate earnings may halve in 2008, with banks and properties the biggest casualties.
Despite the Fed's rate reductions, the US economy is still sliding into a recession. The credit crisis has exposed the risks of buying into complex Wall Street products. It deters international capital from flowing to the US. Foreign capital has funded the US borrow-and-spend binge. Unless the confidence in Wall Street returns, Americans won't have enough money to spend. It takes time for foreigners to recover their faith in the Wall Street. The Fed's policy couldn't substitute this. Its rate reductions would only make dollar weaker and increase inflation. As a result, stagflation may stalk the US economy for a couple of years.
The US recession will decrease risk appetite among international investors. As international capital still dominates the Hong Kong market, it could see significant outflow. Further, many financial institutions in the US have capital shortage. They may have to pull money out of Hong Kong. Facing a banking crisis at home in 1998, Japanese financial institutions pulled big amounts of money out of Hong Kong. The US financial institutions may do the same in 2008.
Would Chinese money come to the rescue? Not soon enough. Chinese money may be flowing back into the A-share market recently. Even though the A-shares are so much more expensive than the same shares in Hong Kong, buoyant local sentiment still keeps them up. Chinese investors may be irrational. But, there are so many of them that they can keep an irrational market going for a long time. Hong Kong market is just too rational for the comfort of Chinese investors. Hence, Chinese market becomes a safe haven during the international correction.
The Fed reductions may not benefit like before. The property demand in Hong Kong depends on gains in the stock market rather than wage income. The wage gains are not exceeding inflation by much. The lower US interest rate won't spike Hong Kong wage earners to borrow and purchase properties like before. Stagnant population is another headwind for property. Japan shows that, with stagnant population, even zero interest rate doesn't make property price go up. Despite all the hypes about Hong Kong property, it may have peaked already.
In the second quarter, international financial markets may calm down, after fully pricing in a US recession. Chinese money may return to Hong Kong again, to play at a lower level. International investors may also have overcome their fear of the US dragging down China. As the two embrace, the market may fly again, even though the US market remains stone cold.
The Olympics party may not last long. After the summer, reality may catch up with investors again. Many Chinese companies are concept plays, not lasting franchises. Some might even be scams, despite being taken to the market by renowned investment banks. Remember subprime: big names don't mean much anymore. China's tightening will expose the negative cash flow businesses of such companies. The resulting explosions may affect confidence.
The air in Hong Kong and Shanghai may be squeezed soon after the Olypics. The deflating process may be painful to many. But it would make China's capital markets and economic development healthier. Many 'share gods' have emerged in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Their 15 minutes of fame are far more damaging than Paris Hilton's: they suck credulous housewives into overvalued shares without the pleasant look to soothe. Worse, they might be talking there own books and could be getting out while talking bullish.
Even bubble here goes through the same routine. Investment banks take doggy companies to the market for a fee. Some new faces suddenly don the cover of Fortune Magazine as the riches this and that. When the show stops, most stars suddenly vanish. Some manage to escape into the deep woods of Thailand with some stolen cash. Little people always lose. We seem to be doomed to repeat the same mistake again and again.
Posted Thursday, April 17, 2008
S-shares Are No Bargain While Risk Remains
By Kirsty Green
17 Apr 2008
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones) -- It's hard to find a bargain when earnings are poor. Investors have been tempted back into the Singapore-listed China stocks, or S-shares, by their depressed share prices and seemingly attractive valuations. But the problem is that those bargain price-to-earnings ratios could be based on unrealistic earnings expectations.
The current reporting season will give us a good idea of how S-shares' earnings are looking and it might not be pretty reading. The China story has gone from one of seemingly unconstrained growth to a careful balancing act of controlling rampant inflation. Price control measures imposed by China's government have left companies stuck in an inflationary sandwich of rising input costs and capped output prices. And that's put profit margins under pressure.
The impact was already visible in the last results round as China plays such as Synear Food Holdings (Z75.SG) reported weaker-than-expected full year 2007 results. "Expectations were high, so it was a kick in the gut to find out that things were not all that rosy," says one Singapore-based trader. The upcoming results are likely to show that profit margins remain under pressure as raw materials have continued to climb. And, this time around, companies will have the added headwind of disruption caused by snowstorms in China during the first quarter.
Synear Food Holdings warned in March that the bad weather in China had hit its operations. The company said its first quarter sales could fall by up to 10% year-on-year. Bulls argue that the S-shares' underperformance since the start of the year means that their share prices already reflect the tough trading conditions. "Lots of this bad news is already known and the bad weather disruption should already be priced in," says DBS Vickers Strategist Yeo Kee Yan. Other brokers agree.
UOB Kay Hian, for example, which raised its rating on the S-shares sector to overweight from market-weight at the end of March, says even if earnings are downgraded, valuations would be attractive. "Even if we assume a gloomy scenario in which corporate earnings are dragged down by another 20-30% by an economic slowdown, a FY08 price-to-earnings ratio of about 5 times after such a revision would still reflect good value," the broker says in a note.
But if earnings downgrades get really serious, there would come a point at which the valuation starts to look unattractive. At the very least, a bad earnings round for the China plays would create a tough environment for the S-shares to perform in and may also cause investors to reassess how risky the S-shares are as an asset class. As one foreign bank strategist puts it, "some of the S-shares have serious questions over how sustainable their business models are."
Their performance to date has certainly marked them out as risky plays. The FTSE ST China Index, which tracks the largest and most liquid of the S-shares, went live at 746.69 on January 10; by March 20 it had hemorrhaged half of its value, closing at 373.15. When broader market sentiment turned more positive recently the S-shares staged a rally with the FTSE ST China Index rising to a five-week high of 500.61 last week.
But the enthusiasm soon faded and the FTSE ST China Index has since dropped back, closing at 451.54 Wednesday. Of course, a swift end to wider equity market turmoil could see the S-shares reclaim their spot in the sun. But risk aversion rather than bargain-hunting looks set to remain the name of the game for now.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
US jobless claims rise in latest week
17 April 2008
WASHINGTON - The number of US workers on the unemployment benefit rolls hit the highest level in almost four years early this month and 372,000 more workers applied for aid last week, the government said on Thursday.
The number of new claims for jobless benefits climbed by 17,000 to 372,000 in the week ended April 12, the Labour Department said, slightly less than analysts' forecasts of 375,000 in a Reuters poll.
The four-week average of new claims, considered a more reliable guide to underlying labour market trends because it smooths out weekly data fluctuation, moderated slightly to 376,000 from a revised 376,750 in the previous week. But the figure was the highest since a big jump in claims after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast in the fall of 2005.
In another sign of strains in the labour market, the number of workers remaining on jobless benefits rose to 2.98 million in the week ended April 5, which was the most recent data available and the highest since June 2004.
Analysts were expecting continuing claims to ease to 2.93 million from the previously reported 2.94 million.
Financial markets, though, were focused more on corporate news since the jobless claims data, while gloomy, contained no surprises.
Analysts said the report was consistent with a weak job market and confirmed forecasts of difficult times ahead for the US economy.
'Labour conditions are quite difficult,' said Michelle Meyer, an economist with Lehman Brothers in New York.
'It's another headwind consumers are facing. Consumer sentiments are very low already and in recession territory,' she said. -- REUTERS
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Fitch says recession would put some CMBS in peril
16 April 2008
LONDON (Reuters) - Almost a tenth of investment grade bonds backed by UK commercial mortgages could default if the current slump in commercial property values reaches "severe" 1990s recession levels, ratings agency Fitch said on Wednesday.
The agency said a 15 percent drop in UK commercial real estate prices in the last nine months had prompted a study of how commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) might react if property yields -- the rental income of a property relative to its investment value -- continued to rise.
The research suggested if the average-weighted UK commercial property yield climbed to 8.4 percent from today's average 5.45 percent level as measured by Investment Property Databank, around 9 percent of all CMBS bonds rated BBB or above would show losses.
But stronger-rated AAA bonds would fare much better, with less than 1 percent at risk of default in what Fitch described as a "severe" 1990s-style property market scenario, the study showed.
"The results were reassuring but we need to use them carefully because this analysis only looks at one part of the equation," said Andrew Currie, managing director of Fitch European Structured Finance. He said the study only considered UK CMBS performance in light of valuation yield movements, without possible falls in rental income.
The analysis covered 67 CMBS transactions, representing 263 loans with a total outstanding loan balance of 33.9 billion pounds.
EXTREME STRESS
Fitch also tested how UK CMBS might stand up in other periods of market dislocation, varying in intensity from "extreme stress" to "moderate stress" and "mild stress".
In the "mild stress" market scenario, which Fitch said most accurately reflected current market conditions, the agency said no AAA notes were at risk of default and less than 1 percent of investment grade UK CMBS would suffer losses.
But if the ailing commercial property market continued to deteriorate and yields climbed to an "extreme" 10 percent, Fitch said up to a fifth of investment grade UK CMBS would be vulnerable to losses.
While Currie said the prospects for such an "extreme" market scenario were small, it was plausible that continued money market congestion and shaky investor confidence could ramp up market stress levels from "mild" to "moderate", echoing market conditions seen following the dot-com collapse in 2001.
If commercial property yields climbed to the 6.8 percent weighted average reminiscent of this period, Fitch estimated that less than 2 percent of investment grade UK CMBS would be at risk of losses.
According to data from benchmark provider Investment Property Databank, the current average All Property initial yield has risen to 5.45 percent since the peak of the UK market, when yields bottomed out at 4.57 percent.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Divorce, Unwed Parenting Costing Taxpayers
By DAVID CRARY
April 15, 2008
NEW YORK -- Divorce and out-of-wedlock childbearing cost U.S. taxpayers more than $112 billion a year, according to a study commissioned by four groups advocating more government action to bolster marriages.
Sponsors say the study is the first of its kind and hope it will prompt lawmakers to invest more money in programs aimed at strengthening marriages. Two experts not connected to the study said such programs are of dubious merit and suggested that other investments - notably job creation - would be more effective in aiding all types of needy families.
There have been previous attempts to calculate the cost of divorce in America. But the sponsors of the new study, being released Tuesday, said theirs is the first to gauge the broader cost of "family fragmentation" - both divorce and unwed childbearing.
The study was conducted by Georgia State University economist Ben Scafidi. His work was sponsored by four groups who consider themselves part of a nationwide "marriage movement" _ the New York-based Institute for American Values, the Institute for Marriage and Public Policy, Families Northwest of Redmond, Wash., and the Georgia Family Council, an ally of the conservative ministry Focus on the Family.
"The study documents for the first time that divorce and unwed childbearing - besides being bad for children - are costing taxpayers a ton of money," said David Blankenhorn, president of the Institute for American Values.
"We keep hearing this from state legislators, 'Explain to me why this is any of my business? Aren't these private matters?'" Blankenhorn said. "Take a look at these numbers and tell us if you still have any doubt."
Scafidi's calculations were based on the assumption that households headed by a single female have relatively high poverty rates, leading to higher spending on welfare, health care, criminal justice and education for those raised in the disadvantaged homes. The $112 billion estimate includes the cost of federal, state and local government programs, and lost tax revenue at all levels of government.
Reducing these costs, Scafidi said, "is a legitimate concern of government, policymakers and legislators."
While the study doesn't offer formal recommendations, it does suggest that state and federal lawmakers consider investing more money in programs intended to bolster marriages. Such a program has been in place in Oklahoma since 2001; Texas last year earmarked about $15 million in federal funds for marriage education.
"Because of the very large taxpayer costs associated with high rates of divorce and unwed childbearing, and the modest price tags associated with most marriage-strengthening initiatives ... programs even with very modest success rates will be cost-effective," the study says.
But Tim Smeeding, an economics professor at the Maxwell School of Syracuse University, who was not involved in the study, said he's seen no convincing evidence that the marriage-strengthening programs work.
"I have nothing against marriage - relationship-building is great," he said. "But alone it's not going to do the job. A full-employment economy would probably be the best thing - decent, stable jobs."
He also noted the distinctive problems arising in black urban areas where the rate of single-mother households is highest.
"A high number of African-American men have been in prison _ that limits their future earning potential and makes them bad marriage partners, regardless of what kind of person they are," Smeeding said. "A marriage program doesn't address that problem at all."
Another expert not connected to the study, University of Michigan sociologist Pamela Smock, suggested that bigger investments in education would pay long-term dividends _ improving economic prospects even for children from fragmented, disadvantaged families.
"Providing a global number doesn't give us anything to go on," said Smock, who was skeptical of the study's $112 billion estimate.
"We're now nearing 40 percent of kids in America born out of wedlock," she said. "I can't fathom that those marriage programs, even with increased investment, are going to reduce that."
Blankenhorn said it was "fair criticism" to note that the study made multiple references to marriage-strengthening programs while not proposing other strategies for reducing the cost of family fragmentation.
"Maybe we should have been more ecumenical," he said. "Let everybody have their say. Let's try things out. ... Nobody knows exactly the strategies which are going to work."
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Smart moves in home loan market
By SIOW LI SEN
April 17, 2008
PERHAPS US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke can take a leaf from our local bankers when it comes to his nation's sub-prime home loan borrowers who are struggling to meet higher instalments after lenders reset their interest rates higher.
Recently United Overseas Bank (UOB) launched a home loan package called UOB Clear where borrowers can fix their instalments for a three-year period, regardless of interest rate movements.
If the interest rate goes down, more of the principal would be paid off. And if interest rates move higher, a higher amount of the instalment would be used to pay the interest portion.
Fixing the instalment for 36 months is pretty radical, and unheard of, even without the volatility in interest rates.
But customers who use their Central Provident Fund (CPF) money to pay their home loans will appreciate the convenience since it is a hassle to inform the CPF board each time the instalment amount changes.
UOB is banking on the extra service it is offering to retain existing customers, as well as to get new ones.
Banks have been pretty creative in looking for ways to both retain and attract new home loan customers as refinancing has become the only game in town amid a dearth of new home sales.
Mortgages as a product, while low margin, is also relatively risk-free in Singapore, provided the economy continues to enjoy full employment, as it should given the strong economic growth momentum of the first quarter.
The economy surprised with a robust 7.2 per cent gain in the first quarter, against 5.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.
Savvy borrowers who have begun shopping around for cheaper home loans in light of falling interest rates may also have come across a new feature offered by DBS Bank. One of its packages which pegs the interest rate to the 12-month Sibor, or the interbank interest rate, offers two free repricings within 24 months.
With DBS's huge customer base, it frees its bankers from having to negotiate with impatient borrowers every time interest rates fall. The projection is that the key interest rate here will fall to below one per cent before the year is out. The 3-month Sibor yesterday was 1.36 per cent.
The penchant for home loan borrowers to switch banks every two or three years, especially once the lock-in periods are over, is a constant headache faced by bankers here.
Local banks have a harder time in a falling interest rate environment given their much bigger customer bases.
Even borrowers still within their lock-in periods are demanding their banks reprice their loans lower. Bankers explain that this is a losing proposition because they had secured the funding cost for the existing loan at an earlier higher price. But in the same breadth, they will offer to pay the penalty to lure new refinancing customers from a rival.
Still, the penalties worked into each package actually ensures that banks don't lose out when customers jump ship.
The market is tough but standing still is just not an option.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
'This time, I want to find a new company with a good environment. Now, it's not the factories choosing me. It's me choosing the factory.' - factory worker Liu Qin
New law empowers Chinese workers
By ARIANA EUNJUNG CHA
April 17, 2008
WEI Hoqiang used to work in a toy factory that forced him to sign a contract which it did not let him read. It paid him 30 US cents an hour, made him work 100 days without a day off, and kept him in a room that was ice cold in winter and suffocating in summer. He said that he knew he was being taken advantage of, but he was so afraid of his boss's ire that he stayed for two years.
Mr Wei, 31, said that he knew he could do better and in early March, walked out on his employer. He immediately got three job offers.
Armed with a landmark new labour contract law that went into effect on Jan 1, employees like Mr Wei are turning the tables on employers in China.
The law - designed to combat forced labour, withholding of pay, unwarranted dismissals and other abuses - represents a major victory for Chinese workers who for decades have complained of companies that would stop at nothing to wring out profits. It has prompted legions of workers in recent months to become bolder about quitting and about staging strikes to demand improvements in work conditions and wages.
For companies already struggling with inflation, high energy costs, the falling US dollar and an environmental crackdown, however, the new law has been devastating.
It has added to the rising cost of doing business in China - contributing to an exodus of what is estimated to be thousands of factories from places like the Pearl River Delta in southern China, for 20 years synonymous with cheap and abundant labour and the engine behind China's rapid growth.
The shift in power has far-reaching consequences for the Chinese economy, raising questions about whether this is the beginning of the end of China's role as the world's factory floor.
'You shouldn't see China anymore as a sweatshop,' said Ronald Haddock, a vice-president at Booz Allen Hamilton in Shanghai. 'The guys and gals with spreadsheets on where the next incremental investments should go are saying there are lower-cost destinations to set up manufacturing.'
Factory owners critical of the law argue that China is going backward and is bringing back the 'iron rice bowl' - a nickname for the communist system in which jobs were assigned and guaranteed for life by the government.
'The new labour law is to protect the lazy,' said Huang Chuangji, the deputy director of the Dongguan Private Enterprises Association.
The new law, which company owners and industry associations said can add 10-25 per cent to manufacturing budgets, has been so painful that some foreign factory owners have sneaked away in the middle of the night to avoid confronting - and paying - angry workers.
While official government figures show that only a small number of ventures have closed so far, surveys by industry associations run by foreign investors indicate that broad swaths of factories may be gone by year's end.
A survey released in March by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai and Booz Allen Hamilton found that a fifth of companies with foreign ownership or investment have concrete plans to move some or all operations out of China.
In the Pearl River Delta, which produces about a third of the country's exports, an estimated 10,000 companies are planning to scale back or shut down, according to a survey by the Federation of Hong Kong Industries.
Not all of these companies are leaving the country, however. Many say that they are moving to less developed parts of China that offer tax breaks and other incentives to offset the increasing costs associated with the new labour law.
The law requires firms to provide contracts that include pension and insurance contributions. It also requires companies to pay workers who are fired a month's wages for every year worked.
Another costly component of the new law regards overtime. For extra hours on a weekday, companies need to pay workers 1.5 times the normal rate. On weekends, it's double time. On official holidays, it's triple time.
'Margins are small in the Pearl River Delta,' said Shen Minggao, a Citigroup economist in Beijing. 'If they have to raise wages, their profits would be squeezed and they would have to go out of business.'
Stanley Lau, deputy chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, said that the law requires too much of companies too soon. 'With the new labour contract law, all the principals of the factories will have big problems. Their burden is getting heavier and heavier,' he said.
Nicholas Kwan, regional head of research for Standard Chartered Asia, is less concerned. He said that some companies are already finding ways to get around the new law. 'They will lay off the existing workers and rehire afterwards. Or employ someone else with less pension burden. There are a lot of techniques that companies are using.'
Dongguan, one of six major cities in the Pearl River Delta, is known for its ubiquitous shoe, toy and paper-product factories filled with migrant labourers. Disney, Nike, Mattel, Wal-Mart and a slew of other American companies have made products here.
To the more than 200 million Chinese workers who have left the countryside to find jobs in factories or at construction sites, Dongguan is known for its two faces: It is revered as a place where fortunes can be made, but it has a reputation tainted by several high-profile cases in which factories were accused of employing child labour, cheating workers out of wages and bullying employees who tried to quit. Until recently, however, factory owners and industry association representatives said that labour relations were relatively peaceful. 'There used to be a harmonious and stable relationship between employers and employees, but now we are all at a loss,' said Zhao Weinan, secretary-general of the Dongguan Taiwan Business Association.
Mr Zhao blamed the new labour law for recent incidents of civil unrest, saying that the law has led to some misunderstandings.
Dongguan officials emphasise that though some factories are closing, more continue to move in, and they say that overall investment to the city will increase this year in dollar terms. They say that despite some initial confusion, many company owners are realising that the new law is in their best interest.
'Most people consider the new labour law a law that protects only the interest of employees, but not protecting enough the interest of enterprise investors. This is in fact a misunderstanding. The new labour law articles not only protect the interest and rights of employees, but also regulate their responsibilities,' said Cai Kang, vice-director of the Dongguan Bureau of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation.
Lately, the factory entrances of some of the larger companies in Dongguan are full of what look like vast unemployment lines. But the nature of the job-seeking crowds is deceptive. Nearly everyone is employed, just looking to upgrade his or her job.
Mr Wei, who quit his job in early March, was in front of a computer company with more than 200 other workers on a recent workday, waiting for an interview. He said that he was attracted to the new company because it offers a base salary equivalent to about US$140 a month, 25 per cent more than he made at his last job, including overtime. 'I used to work at a factory that told me lies,' he said. 'I don't need to do that anymore.'
A few blocks down, another crowd was waiting in front of a shoe factory. Liu Qin was laid off from her job when the shoe factory she was working for went out of business. It didn't pay her for months of work. She said that she thinks it may be the best thing that ever happened to her.
'This time I want to find a new company with a good environment,' said Ms Liu, 34, who has spent more than a decade working in the Pearl River Delta's factories. 'Now, it's not the factories choosing me. It's me choosing the factory.'
Wang Erhao, 22, who is leaving his job at a small shoe factory to seek work at a larger one with better benefits, said that he wasn't the least bit worried about finding a new job. It's an employee's market, he said. 'You quit a job one day, and the same day you can have new work.' - LATWP
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
China, India to build refineries in Nigeria
17 April 2008
(ABUJA, Nigeria) China and India have agreed to build oil refineries in Nigeria rather than buying crude from it for export, a Nigerian official said on Tuesday.
'What we have agreed with the Chinese is that we will now have a greenfield refinery located in the Niger delta,' head of Nigeria's Department of Petroleum Resources, Tony Chukwuemeke, said here.
Three prominent Chinese companies operating in Nigeria - CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC - 'have together committed themselves to make available a refinery' in the southern delta region, Mr Chukwuemeke said.
'I cannot tell you its capacity but it's in the neighbourhood of 450,000 barrels per day,' he said. 'We are just beginning a discussion.'
Mr Chukwuemeke said Nigeria has a similar cooperation agreement with India to establish another export-oriented refinery.
Indian oil and gas group ONGC, teamed with steel giant Mittal, 'have some oil blocks from Nigeria in the deep offshore and for that they have committed to build a refinery in Nigeria', Mr Chukwuemeka said.
'Why will the Indians, renowned for having the best refinery in the world, not be happy to replicate the same thing here rather than asking us to give them crude oil to take to India to refine there?' Mr Chukwuemeka said. - AFP
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
A blow for Asian wealth funds
By Julio Godoy
Apr 16, 2008
BERLIN - Germany's decision to introduce controls on investments from sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in strategic domestic sectors is an indicator of growing protectionism in European and other industrialized countries against the neo-liberal globalization they once masterminded.
The German government announced on April 9 it was introducing controls on investments by SWFs, investment funds managed by oil-rich Arab states and other rapidly developing countries such as China, Singapore and India. A SWF is a state-owned fund that invests capital comprising financial assets such as stocks, bonds, property or other financial instruments.
The German Ministry for Labor can now stop any major venture in local firms, especially in public services, if such investments threaten local jobs or if they are sought in strategic sectors such as electricity generation, a government spokesperson said at a press conference in Berlin.
Automatic controls will kick in if non-European Union investors want more than a 25% stake, the spokesperson added. The government can refuse any investment in what it considers strategic sectors, or when the venture is seen to threaten national security.
If the SWF does not report its stake, the government can force it to resell its shares.
The decision follows fears that the SWFs will take control of strategic sectors. In France, the possibility that the China Investment Corporation, a state investment fund, and other Arab funds, could take up to 10% of the private oil company Total, has launched a debate on the need to establish controls against such ventures.
The company's chief executive officer, Christophe de Margerie, has tried to defend the investments. "We were the ones who went searching for Chinese investment," de Margerie told the Paris newspaper Libération. He emphasized that Total had asked the Chinese fund not to invest beyond 3% of the company's capital.
De Margerie said that during the 1980s, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) funds, owned by the United Arab Emirates, controlled up to 9% of Total's capital, but then "nobody was paying attention".
Until the global financial crisis broke out in the US in the summer of 2007, provoked by the collapse of the real estate market and the highly speculative financial instruments associated with subprime mortgages, few were paying attention to SWFs. Recent high-profile investments made by SWFs, especially in US banks in need of fresh liquidity, have put them in the spotlight.
"Today it has become fashionable to question the SWFs," de Margerie said. But "these funds are not trying to control our companies and societies. They say so, and I believe them."
Not everybody believes this. Christian Chavagneux, editor of the French monthly Alternatives Economiques, says massive investments by the SWFs can endanger a company if the funds disinvest as suddenly and as massively as they poured money into the firm.
"Last November, the Singaporean fund Temasek did sell a tenth of its shares of the Bank of China, thus sending the market price of the bank's shares down the pipes," Chavagneux told Inter Press Service. "You can imagine what can happen if a similar disinvestment takes place suddenly in one of the battered banks in the US or Germany."
"We can also imagine that the states controlling these sovereign funds could be tempted to use their financial leverage as a foreign policy weapon, or to use Western companies as a learning field for their young leaders. Of course, these are all speculations."
Similar speculation is being aired in many of the industrialized world's capitals, and has moved the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to issue a warning urging SWFs to observe "high standards of transparency and governance" to avoid further protectionist measures in the industrialized world.
The OECD represents the 30 most industrialized countries, from the US, most EU members, to Australia, Japan and South Korea, and also Mexico.
In an oblique warning, OECD director general Angel Gurría wrote to the finance ministries of the group of seven most industrialized countries (G7) on April 9 that "observance of high standards of transparency and governance [by SWFs] will help recipient countries implement their commitments and recommendations for preserving open markets while safeguarding national security".
The letter says the OECD countries will "remain committed to keeping their investment frontiers open to sovereign wealth funds as long as these funds invest for commercial, not political, ends".
OECD members have agreed to base their investment policies on SWFs on existing instruments that call for fair treatment of investors. But these investment instruments also recognize the right of member countries to take action to protect their national security.
In another statement on April 9, the OECD pointed out that "investments by SWFs can raise concerns as to whether their objectives are commercial or driven by political, defense or foreign policy considerations".
Although more than 20 countries have these funds, Simon Johnson, economic counselor and director of the International Monetary Fund's research department, says they "remain quite concentrated, with the top five funds accounting for about 70% of total assets".
But the concern in the OECD countries arises from the main funds' home countries: seven of the 10 largest funds belong to Algeria, China, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
According to some estimates, global SWF investments added to about $48 billion in 2007, a 165% increase over 2006. The SWFs' total assets were around $3.3 trillion in 2007, an 18% increase over the previous year.
When other assets owned by the SWFs' home countries are included, such as pension funds and their share of their own public services, their total assets in 2007 came to $14.5 trillion . The US gross domestic product in 2007 was $12 trillion.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Chinese sovereign wealth fund buys £1bn stake in BP
Graeme Wearden
15 April 2008
A Chinese sovereign wealth fund has quietly built up a £1bn stake in BP, Britain's largest company.
Shares in the oil giant jumped this morning following reports that the fund has built up a 1% stake. In early trading they were up 11p at 560p, a 2% gain.
A BP spokesman said the firm was "aware of the Chinese shareholding and we welcome all shareholders".
The identity of the fund has not been confirmed. Last month China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) spent £1bn buying a stake in Total, the French oil firm.
The move has sparked speculation of a new wave of investment in western companies by Chinese funds, which are cash rich thanks to the country's buoyant exports.
Last year China Investment Corp, a $200bn (£101.4bn) sovereign wealth fund, spent more than £4bn on a shareholding in Blackstone, the US private equity company.
Other sovereign wealth funds have pumped money into investment banks in recent months, following the credit crunch. Singapore's GIC bought an $11bn stake in UBS last December – since when the Swiss bank has announced more write-downs and a rights issue.
The BP deal is reminiscent of the furore two decades ago when the world's oldest sovereign wealth fund, the Kuwaiti Investment Authority, snapped up over 20% of BP after its flotation was disrupted by the stock market crash of 1987. KIA was later forced to cut its stake, but is still a major investor.
Sovereign funds have grown in power in recent years, as rising energy prices have left many Middle East countries with piles of cash to invest. Many are less than fully-transparent, and often will not reveal which shares they own or what their long-term objectives are.
Last year the chancellor, Alistair Darling, warned that these funds would not be allowed to use their power unchecked.
"When a company is not acting in a commercial way or we have reason to believe it is going to make an investment where there is an issue of national security, then we have powers to take action," he said.
Darling is visiting China this week, and is due to meet with CIC.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Temasek may raise more cash amid Western pain
By Saeed Azhar
Tue Apr 15, 2008
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore state investor Temasek, sitting on paper losses of around $1.3 billion for its investments in Merrill Lynch and Barclays, is expected to shed more assets and conserve cash to offset its exposure to the ailing western financial sector.
Analysts said the sovereign fund, which recently unloaded an Indonesian bank and a Singapore power producer, may choose to consolidate its hefty holdings in Chinese banks. Temasek last year was among the early big investors to call the top of the market, selling down part of its stakes in two big China lenders.
"We expect that increasingly investments will be funded out of sale of current investments. So as they continue to rebalance their portfolio there could be temporary or medium-term requirement for more resources," said Anshukant Taneja, who covers Temasek as a credit analyst at Standard & Poor's.
Temasek's TEM.UL S$164 billion ($121 billion) portfolio is weighted towards the financial sector, with 38 percent of its holdings in either banks or financial services.
Taneja said that the large exposure could have a bearing on returns, but does not threaten its top credit ratings.
"There has been a higher volatility in the recent past and that could result in volatility in earnings with regard to Temasek's portfolio," he said. "This is a risk, but not as much to substantially affect their current ratings."
Temasek, headed by Ho Ching, the wife of Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, joined other state funds from the Middle East and Asia to provide lifelines to U.S. and European banks stung by the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market.
But Merrill shares have fallen 11 percent since Temasek agreed to invest $4.4 billion in the firm in December and Barclays' stock price is down 38 percent since July when it raised 975 million pounds ($1.9 billion) from Temasek and 2.2 billion euro ($3.5 billion) from China Development Bank to fund a bid for ABN AMRO.
Temasek exercised its option to buy another $600 million worth of Merrill shares in February, a spokeswoman said on Tuesday, raising its investments to $5 billion in the U.S. investment bank and increasing its losses from the stake.
CHINA RESHUFFLE
Temasek currently holds stakes in Bank of China, China Construction Bank and medium-sized Chinese lender Minsheng Banking Corp
Of the three, Minsheng is the likeliest target for sale given that it is more vulnerable than its bigger peers to monetary tightening and higher cost pressures, Temasek watchers said.
Of the three, Minsheng is the likeliest target for sale given that it is more vulnerable than its bigger peers to monetary tightening and higher cost pressures, Temasek watchers said.
"I would stick with the big banks, but not Minsheng," said a fund manager in Singapore, who declined to be identified because he cannot publicly talk about individual stocks.
"We are seeing increasing pressure on the banking sector because of monetary tightening, raising the potential for non-performing loans as property markets cool."
Minsheng does not have as strong a deposit-taking franchise as other large banks to support a low deposit cost structure, Morgan Stanley said in a report last month.
Temasek owns close to 4 percent of Minsheng, a stake now worth about $950 million.
Temasek declined to comment for this article.
Last month, Temasek raised over $3 billion by selling Singapore power firm Tuas Power to China's Huaneng and offloaded its 42 percent stake in Indonesia's sixth-biggest lender, Bank Internasional Indonesia BNII.JK, to Malaysia's top lender Malayan Banking Bhd for $1.1 billion.
The high-profile fund has not been exclusively on the sell-side in recent months.
Temasek has been building its stake in London-based bank Standard Chartered, in which it currently owns 19 percent. That has stoked talk it could seek a takeover or engineer a deal between emerging markets-focused Standard Chartered and another bank.
Temasek is not alone in taking an increasingly cautious stance.
The International Monetary Authority said early this month that credit market turmoil could spread, with losses possibly approaching $1 trillion.
Guy De Blonay, a London-based fund manager for the 303 million pound New Star Global Financial Fund, said it was important for investors to understand the full extent of the problems afflicting the financial sector.
"In these conditions, a cautious approach is sensible and the fund is likely to maintain high levels of cash or cash equivalents for some time to preserve capital and flexibility," Blonay said of his own fund..
"If valuations have slipped further by the summer, this may be used as an opportunity to move back towards being fully invested."
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
The Job...
They're young, they're foreign, and they're helping to save your job
By Keith Lin
April 18, 2008
YOUNG and chatty foreign waitresses have been helping draw customers to some Housing Board coffee shops.
But they have also been raising eyebrows among some local co-workers.
One drinks seller at a coffee shop in Jurong West complained to Minister Lim Boon Heng that she felt threatened by a sweet, young lady from China who sells beer at the same joint.
She was worried that allowing such foreigners to work at coffee shops would undercut her wages. She was already working two jobs to make ends meet.
But the Minister in the Prime Minister's Office saw things differently.
The co-worker was drawing men in droves to the coffee shop, he said.
This meant brisk business which, in turn, helped the local drinks lady keep her job.
Recounting this anecdote at a forum yesterday, he said: 'Obviously, if Tiger or Carlsberg asks this mature lady to sell beer, it will not have the same result.'
His broader point was that every person, local or foreign, had their own strengths.
He was speaking to 500 employers, unionists and government officials at the Singapore Tripartism Forum to discuss employment issues.
For nearly two hours, a panel of six, including Acting Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong, Education Minister Ng Eng Hen and labour chief Lim Swee Say, fielded questions. These ranged from worries over the rising costs of living to re-employment of older workers.
To a call from a participant to relax foreign worker quotas, Mr Gan said this issue often results in tensions. Singaporeans prefer fewer foreign workers but bosses need them to augment their workforce. The solution, he said, was to strike a balance between both parties' interests by fine-tuning foreign worker policies.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
"Are we achieving all this material prosperity at the cost of something? Soul, spirit, heart, senses, whatever you want to call it?"
"If there were less of a climate of fear... we would be a happier society,"
Singapore materially rich, spiritually poor--author
By Luqman Suratman
Agence France-Presse
First Posted 11:12:00 04/18/2008
Lim said that while Singapore is consistently ranked high in various surveys on material measures, such as business friendliness and economic achievement, the standings are reversed when other factors are considered.
"Press freedom, happiness and even love life and romance and so on, Singapore is ranked very low," Lim said in an interview with AFP.
"Maybe it leads to some questions. Are we achieving all this material prosperity at the cost of something? Soul, spirit, heart, senses, whatever you want to call it?"
She said the government's tight political control is partly to blame for a lack of happiness among the city-state's 4.6 million people.
"If there were less of a climate of fear... we would be a happier society," she said.
Singapore is one of the most politically stable countries in the region and has become the base for thousands of foreign firms.
The country's leaders say its tough laws against dissent and other political activity are necessary to ensure such stability which has helped it achieve economic success.
It is illegal, for example, to hold a public gathering of five or more people in Singapore without a permit, meaning demonstrations seldom occur.
Singapore's leaders maintain that Western-style liberal democracy is not suitable for the tiny, multi-racial nation which has been ruled by the People's Action Party since 1959.
Lim said the government is doing much better than others in helping to deal with "material issues," including rising global food prices.
"This is a very pro-active government... a very pragmatic, problem-solving leadership," the Malaysian-born Lim, 66, said.
"The problem is in the other areas, political and social liberties that we don't hear much of here in Singapore."
Lim, who has lived in the city-state since 1967, spoke to AFP on the sidelines of a conference on The New Science of Happiness and Well-being, where she was invited to speak, and which ended Thursday.
Paris based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders ranked the city-state at 146 out of 168 nations, lower than Zimbabwe at 140, on a global index of press freedom released last year.
Singapore has also placed at the lower end in global surveys of sex frequency and satisfaction.
A recent poll by advertising firm Grey Group found that nine in 10 people living in Singapore said they were stressed.
Singaporeans are not "unhappy in the real sense of the word as in poverty-stricken countries", Lim said, but they seem to feel something is missing to complete their happiness.
"We need more time to relax. Singaporeans are always talking about pressure. We make money, but hey, we don't have the leisure to spend our money."
Lim has written more than nine collections of short stories, five novels and a book on poems. Her works have been published internationally.
Last year she also turned to the Internet, after the pro-government Straits Times refused to publish one of her commentaries, her website says.
The newspaper had, for 13 years, published her commentaries even though they were critical of the government, she wrote on the website.
But in September it rejected one on "the need for a political opening up," the website says. The Today daily also refused to publish it, forcing her to go online, she says on the website.
Direct criticism of the government is rare in Singapore's mainstream media, forcing dissatisfied Singaporeans to resort to the web to express their views.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
US rice futures leap to record; corn near high
By Michael Byrnes
SYDNEY, April 18 (Reuters) - U.S. rice futures extended their run of records on Friday, surging by almost 4 percent as the scramble to bolster stockpiles of Asia's staple food showed little signs of abating.
Chicago Board of Trade July rough rice futures rose to $24.550 a hundredweight in Asian trade, a fourth successive record high, taking this year's gains to over 76 percent amid aggressive Asian demand and global unease over shrinking food supplies after several big suppliers cut back on exports.
Tightening supplies were evident in the Philippines, the world's biggest rice importer, where authorities received offers for only 325,750 tonnes of rice in a tender for 500,000 tonnes, the third time in a row it has failed to secure the full amount.
On top of that, rice planting in several U.S. states, including top producer Arkansas, is off to a slow start due to overly wet conditions. Although the United States is not a major exporter, many buyers are looking to U.S. shipments to partly make up for curbed output from Vietnam, India and elsewhere.
Analysts warned that the world faced high rice prices for the foreseeable future.
"Rice's rise shouldn't be seen as temporary, but part of the bull market that has hit commodities across the board," said Akio Shibata, director at Marubeni Research Institute in Tokyo.
"It is likely to stabilise at a high level, or even move higher," he said. "Supply just cannot keep up with demand."
In Asia, rice is far more than just a commodity.
"Countries are racing to ensure they have enough supplies to feed their own population, and exporting only the surplus," Shibata said.
In Chicago trading on Thursday, rice futures had risen by their maximum allowed limit of 75 cents. The limit was expanded to $1.15 for Friday trading.
Rice is leading the commodities charge this year, picking up from wheat, which doubled between September and February this year before falling back by around 30 percent.
Traders are now watching to see if wheat picks up again. "You would wonder whether that spills back over into wheat at some point," said MF Global trade Pat Cogswell.
May CBOT wheat was up 0.25 percent at $9.15-¼ a bushel, after falling 11-½ cents on Thursday, while May soybeans were up 1.02 percent at $13.65 a bushel.
The July corn contract was off a record high of $6.47 a bushel set in Chicago trading on Thursday. At 0233 GMT, the contract was up 0.39 percent at $6.45 a bushel, while the nearby May contract was at $6.04.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Further US rate cuts seen in wake of inflation, housing news
AFP News, by Justin Cole
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
FURTHER Federal Reserve interest rate cuts appeared more likely on Wednesday after government reports showed a modest rise in inflation and that the housing market remained mired in a deep slump.
Many economists expect the US central bank to continue its aggressive rate-cutting campaign at a looming two-day meeting on April 29-30, especially as a growing number of analysts believe the world's largest economy has fallen into a recession.
'For the Federal Reserve this inflation news brings some relief. If inflation expectations are kept under control by such evidence, then the Fed has a freer hand to cut rates,' said Mr Stephen Gallagher, an economist at Societe Generale.
Mr Gallagher raised the prospect of new rate cuts after a Labour Department survey showed consumer prices rose a modest 0.3 per cent in March amid a spike in energy prices.
Looking at inflation pressures more broadly, the report revealed that consumer prices have risen 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to March, partly as crude oil prices have skyrocketed.
Economists said weak labour market conditions in the United States are helping to contain wages and offset a jump in global commodity costs which have triggered inflation fears.
Some analysts say, however, that soaring energy and food costs could stoke inflation in coming months.
'Both remain big question marks in the near future with world supplies of both stretched tight,' Global Insight economist Kenneth Beauchemin said of rising energy and food prices.
The monthly inflation snapshot showed that rising energy costs accounted for much of the rise in consumer prices last month.
Energy costs rose 1.9 per cent in March, partly as natural gas and heating oil prices surged. Gasoline and electricity prices also moved higher.
Oil prices struck fresh record peaks on Wednesday as a key oil futures contract, traded in New York, briefly hit an all-time high of US$115.07 (S$155) a barrel.
Food costs increased a more modest 0.2 per cent last month, as a drop in pork, dairy and fruit prices helped keep overall food costs tethered.
Inflation pressures
Mr Joel Naroff, the president of Naroff Economic Advisors, agreed the inflation report gives the Fed elbow room to cut rates anew, but said inflation pressures are building, especially as a falling dollar makes imports more expensive.
The central bank - led by chairman Ben Bernanke - has slashed its key base rate by three percentage points to 2.25 per cent since September and pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the stressed financial system in a bid to fire up slowing economic growth.
A two-year long housing downturn, a related credit crunch, mounting job cuts and surging gasoline prices have slowed growth to a 0.6 per cent annualised pace in the fourth quarter of last year.
Another government survey showed the housing market remains in the doldrums.
The Commerce Department said that new home construction and applications for permits to build new residential properties tumbled to a 16-year low in March.
Housing starts fell 11.9 per cent to a 947,000-unit annual rate compared with the prior month, marking the lowest level of starts since March 1991.
Analysts said the central bank is facing a dilemma, however, as its slew of rate cuts so far have yet to inject fresh life back into the depressed housing market, although such cuts often take a while to filter through the economy.
'The problem is not the level of mortgage rates but the tightness in the credit markets that is limiting mortgage activity. Lowering rates does very little to convince lenders to lend,' Mr Naroff pointed out.
The housing market is expected to buck up later this year as a result of the rate cuts, but also due to a giant US$168 billion economic stimulus package backed by President George W. Bush.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Super Rich: The Greed Game
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
China May Raise Interest Rates to Cool Inflation
By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Patricia Chua
April 18 (Bloomberg) -- China will raise interest rates this year to cool inflation that is close to an 11-year high, according to a survey of economists.
The key one-year lending rate will increase from 7.47 percent, according to 11 of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News after the government reported April 16 that inflation rose 8.3 percent in March. The deposit rate will climb from 4.14 percent, 10 economists said.
The People's Bank of China has held off raising borrowing costs this year to prevent the gap between its rates and those of the U.S. from attracting money into the financial system. The risk of inflation will outweigh concern that speculative inflows will fuel price gains, prompting the central bank to resume lifting rates after six increases in 2007, economists said.
``Money will come in anyway to speculate on the yuan and maybe the asset markets,'' said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai. ``We really need some rate hikes to tackle inflation because other tools are simply not effective enough.''
The benchmark CSI 300 Index of shares fell 46.74, or 1.4 percent, to 3339.89 as of the 11:30 a.m. break in trading, on concern that tightening measures may dent company profits. The index has declined 37 percent this year.
China on April 16 also reported its economy grew 10.6 percent in the first quarter, the ninth quarter of above 10 percent growth. Hours later, the central bank ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the third time this year.
Four Rate Increases
Green predicts four interest-rate increases this year, the first this quarter. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan this week said there is room to raise interest rates.
Though inflation in March eased from 8.7 percent in February, the peak since May 1996, it may accelerate again on higher food, raw-material and labor costs, according to Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG. He predicts consumer prices will jump 8.9 percent in April.
``Given this still worrying inflation outlook, the central bank will have to continue its tight monetary policy,'' said Hong Kong-based Ma. Policy makers' target for inflation this year is 4.8 percent, a level registered for all of 2007.
Some economists expect the government to rely mostly on currency appreciation to reduce import costs and narrow the trade surplus by making exports more expensive, staunching the flow of funds into the economy.
``As long as concerns over hot speculative inflows still linger, China will rely on a faster currency appreciation to tame prices,'' said Mark Williams, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London.
The yuan has climbed more than 4 percent against the U.S. dollar this year, compared with 7 percent for all of 2007.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
谢国忠： 额度不紧俏 大部分QFII已在4000点撤走
证券时报
2008年04月18日
部分海外经济学家称A股调整让QFII额度不再紧俏
随着A股进入调整期，QFII对于A股的热情呈现降温的迹象。一些海外经济学家昨日接受证券时报记者采访时表示，QFII额度已经不再紧俏。
摩根士丹利前亚太区首席经济学家谢国忠向记者表示，“那些通过QFII买A股的外资早在去年就已经撤走了，大部分QFII在 上证指数4000多点的时候就已经全部退出了，而且很久没回来了。熊市早已经就来了。”
花旗中国研究部主管薛澜也告诉记者，QFII的额度在海外市场已经没有以前紧俏了，只要海外投资者想买A股，就能在市场上找到额度。她说，其实从去年第二季以来，大家对A股的兴趣就在下降。
理柏中国研究部主管周良也认为，最近，QFII机构对QFII额度的兴趣的确有所减弱。他告诉记者，海外机构对QFII额度的需求在2006年是最热切的，事实上，从2007年上半年开始，QFII额度的紧张程度就有所缓解，现在可能进一步缓解。
三位受访者提到的QFII投资者淡出的时间不谋而合。另一个值得关注的事情是，去年下半年，香港各大国际金融机构争相发行中国A股基金，其中包括在港交所挂牌交易的交易所交易基金(ETF)。据记者不完全统计，就在7月中旬的一周里，就在香港市场上推出了3只中国A股基金。三只基金的管理人都表示不担心QFII额度不够。对此，市场人士分析，这也显示QFII额度已经不稀缺，好东西投行都会留给重要的大客户，只有在大客户没有用完额度的情况下，才会发基金让散户去消化掉。这也印证了谢国忠、薛澜和周良提出的上半年开始，QFII的额度就已经不再紧俏的说法。
此外，理柏的统计也显示，QFII基金从去年起就一直在遭遇赎回。从获得2007年全年规模数据的7家基金看，截至2007年11月末，全年净赎回额约22亿美元。但受新设基金和净值增长的推动，QFII基金的资产规模依然稳步扩大，2007年底，20家QFII基金资产规模达到了81.84亿美元。进入2008年，持续近一年的QFII基金净赎回趋势不改，但净赎回金额有所减少。从公布2月末资产数据的6家QFII基金看，有5家遭遇净赎回，净赎回金额约6千万美元。受净值下降和净赎回的影响，19家QFII基金的最新资产规模缩小到66.6亿美元。部分基金的股票持仓有小幅下降。
周良表示，相对于国内投资者和基金经理，QFII基金的投资者和基金经理的态度相对谨慎。2007年全年22亿美金的净赎回，将QFII基金投资者的态度表露无疑。
谢国忠甚至担心，那些已经拿了额度的海外投行，可能会面临手中的额度找不到客户用的困境。额度长时间不用可能还会受到监管机构的惩罚。
不过，薛澜则没有那么悲观。她说，既然有了额度，QFII还是要找机会去投的，再不好的市场里也有值得投资的股票，投资者会选择个股。周良也认为，对于新兴市场，特别是中国这个市场，国际投资者的兴趣一直都有，不需要担心额度没人要，只是额度的紧张程度不一样了。 (郭蕾)
两成QFII去年空仓A股？稳赚人民币升值
业内人士称，QFII资格或成部分机构套利工具
本报讯就在A股持续低位运行、市场认为QFII图谋抄底之际，有消息称：拥有QFII资格的机构，去年有两成没有发生可查交易。对此，有市场人士质疑，境外机构将QFII资格和额度变相转为套利工具。
3月14日，证监会批准哥伦比亚大学QFII资格，这也是今年以来首只获批的QFII。中登公司最新公布的数据显示，哥伦比亚大学已完成A股开户，完全不同于此前QFII一向唱空的行事风格。另一方面，排队申请QFII资格的机构不断增加，要求增加投资额度的QFII也在上升，QFII抄底A股的心态似乎不言而喻。
然而，一边是QFII的急不可待，另一边却是QFII将自身资格和额度拿去套利，在获批QFII资格和额度的机构中，去年竟出现两成机构无任何交易记录。本报统计2007年一季报、半年报、三季报和年报发现，累计有10家QFII未在沪深两市所有上市公司前10大股东中出现过一次，而这10家QFII获批的总额度达至少在7.75亿美元。“如此大的额度即使分散持股也不至没有一家进前10大的，唯一的解释就是这些QFII没有入市。”一位资深市场人士对记者如此表示。
按照监管层的规定，获得QFII资格和额度的合格投资者除可投资A股、在证券交易所挂牌的国债及可转换债券及企业债券，亦可投资于经中国证监会批准设立的封闭式基金和开放式基金，且不设投资比例限制。合格投资者还可以参与股票增发、配股、新股发行和可转换债券发行四者的申购。
那么，没有投资股市，这些QFII获批的大笔资金投去了哪里？上述市场分析人士对此的解释是，因为人民币升值预期巨大，再加上去年来中国国内加息氛围浓厚，QFII将资金转化为人民币现金形式存放银行就可获得利差、汇差，这对于一些害怕风险的海外机构既安全也收益可观。
对此，记者也从权威人士处得到了间接证实。该权威人士表示，以前允许这些机构资金汇进后直接换成人民币，以现金形式存放银行。但从结汇到正式投资建仓时间较长，没能有效地转化为投资。“今后中国监管层会限制将大量资金以人民币现金方式存放银行来获取利差、汇差。”(桂衍民)
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Bubble glum
Andy Xie
Apr 17, 2008
Many pundits in mainland China are screaming for a government bailout of the stock market. Merely six months ago, the debate was about whether there was a stock market bubble. The same pundits cheered on the bubble, and claimed that international valuation methodologies didn't apply to the mainland market. That market has nearly halved from its peak in the past five months. Now, these pundits are shifting people's attention away from their bad calls by making loud noises about a bailout, appearing sympathetic to the millions who lost their savings on their advice. They even claim that those, like me, who oppose bailouts are unpatriotic. They merely hide their mistakes and ignorance behind a nationalistic mask; they disgrace Chinese nationalism.
Even though the market has nearly halved, the sad thing is that it still has considerable downsides. High valuation, a deteriorating earnings outlook, macro tightening due to inflation and the supply overhang are serious headwinds for the stock market. The bear market may last another 18 months.
In terms of valuation, the A-share market still trades at about 3.5 times book value. This would make it among the most expensive in the world. The market consensus is for 34 per cent earnings growth in 2008. The listed companies have achieved half as much thus far. The trend is down; earnings last year were grossly exaggerated by stock market gains from cross-holdings and asset injections. As the stock market reverses, the gains in 2007 are becoming losses in 2008. The chances are that the earnings growth will be 10 per cent to 15 per cent, at best, this year - and worse next year.
Over the next three years, the amount of so-called legal person shares becoming tradable will be comparable to the total amount of tradable shares today. Improving liquidity is good for the market in the long run. Digestion, however, could be quite painful. The acquisition prices for these shares are a small fraction of the current market prices. As there are considerable uncertainties over capital gains tax or even the legality of their acquisition, the owners of these shares have powerful incentives to cash out.
A major reason that mainland China's market has been expensive, even during a bear market, is the small free float. As all the legal person shares become liquid, the market will become more like others. Hence, the massive valuation premium of A-shares to H-shares may become a thing of the past.
The mainland is facing unprecedented inflationary pressure. Unskilled workers are finally gaining pricing power after seeing their wages stagnate for 10 years. This redistribution of the economic pie is good for the economy in the long run, but it is generating inflationary pressure across the board. Skyrocketing food and energy prices are also driving up inflation.
The government is resorting to price controls to contain inflation. This depresses corporate earnings and casts a bearish pall over the stock market. When this approach proves insufficient, Beijing may have to raise bank deposit rates above inflation to stop consumers hoarding essentials. When negative real interest rates disappear, the overvaluation of the property and stock markets are exposed. The return to normal valuations could send both markets down sharply.
A bubble is primarily a redistribution game. The losers are usually the weakest groups in a society. As with previous bubbles, those who have made money include insiders, controlling shareholders, market manipulators and even some government officials.
A stock market bubble on the mainland always redistributes wealth from the poor to the rich. It takes a really cold heart to cheer on a bubble, like many pundits did last year.
As stories of individual pain mount, the government is rightfully worried about social stability. But isn't it too late? No government can turn back the clock; it can only try to limit the economic damage.
Over the past two decades, the economy has shown little sensitivity to stock market fluctuations. Investment and trade drive the mainland economy. The former depends on bank loans, the latter on the global economy. Hence, the bursting of the stock market bubble won't have a major economic impact. The social impact, however, is considerable. Like gambling in casinos, the mainland stock market ruins many who are opportunistic. So, should the government bail out those who lost big in a casino? The government's money is the people's money, after all. Why should it be used to bail out gamblers?
The government should, instead, investigate the ill-gotten gains of the bubble. Did companies misrepresent their earnings? If so, did the controlling shareholders work with market manipulators to profit from the information? Did some government officials gain from insider information? If ill-gotten gains can be retrieved, they could be used to compensate retail investors.
China must prevent future bubbles; it is too late to stop the pain from this one.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
The iceberg of Singapore politics
www.sgpolitics.net
Written by Ng E-Jay
Saturday, 12 April 2008
Icebergs partially float on water with the top part jutting out of the water’s surface because ice is around 9% less dense than water. Some icebergs are huge, and only a small fraction of their total volume is visible above water. The rest is submerged beneath the water’s surface, its true destructive force on vessels and ships hidden from plain sight.
This is precisely the situation confronting Singapore. While the government tries to attract an increasing number of foreigners to Singapore, little do the outsiders know that Singapore is on a collision course with a political iceberg whose tip is visible but its enormity is obscured beneath an ocean of propaganda.
Singapore’s productivity has fallen in recent years, and the government has tried to make up for declining birth rates and the brain drain by importing a huge number of foreigners. The growth in Singapore’s GDP has been due to the expansion of the population by foreign talent import rather than through real gains in competitiveness and productivity.
The government has turned our nation into a mere hotel where visitors can come in, milk our jobs, and then move on to greener pastures whenever they decide to. Singapore is no longer a nation for Singaporeans. Singapore males still have to serve National Service, but in return they face hardship and even discrimination at work due to their NS liabilities. Foreigners on the other hand enjoy most of the privileges afforded to citizens, but none of the associated liabilities.
The indiscriminate import of foreign workers has depressed real wages in Singapore for the lower income class, which have not kept pace with inflation for the past decade. Till today, there is no minimum wage, and cleaners are still earning little more than three to four hundred dollars per month, same as what they earned a decade ago. Octagenerians are seen making their rounds at coffeeshops and hawker centres collecting drink cans or wiping tables. Escalating costs of living due to government policies like the GST hike have only made matters worse.
The PAP government likes to portray Singapore to the world as a shining example of a nation under good governance, with prosperity for all. In reality, only the ruling clique is benefiting from Singapore’s economic growth, with GLCs deeply entrenched in all parts of the economy and minister’s salaries pegged to the highest private sector wages.
Working class Singaporeans are being squeezed till the point of suffocation by rising HDB property prices because HDB flats are only granted a market subsidy rather than a cash subsidy. This is a prime example of the government’s blatant neglect of its own people and profiteering from the most basic survival needs of its own citizens.
As a direct result of Singaporeans’ putting in a large portion of their CPF savings towards their home, many do not have enough to retire on, and the government has to invent schemes like CPF Life in a frail attempt to plug the holes of this sinking retirement ship.
Even in policies like CPF Life, the government carefully designs it to ensure that it will profit from the scheme over the long run no matter how life expectancies or return on investments change. The risks arising from mortality changes or changes in investment gains are entirely borne by Singaporeans, who ultimately still have to depend solely on each other rather than on the government for their retirement funding. That is how callous and mercenary the government has become.
The PAP government however continually uses its own state-sponsored media to obscure these facts with a steady stream of propaganda that has become a mighty ocean of hogwash.
It is high time for activists and politicians to unite and expose the full extent of this political iceberg that if left unchecked will ultimately sink the great ship of our nation’s destiny.
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PM Lee on Internet lessons
Regulations on new media will be ready before next elections
Loh Chee Kong
Monday, April 14, 2008
THE recent elections in Malaysia have been described as a "political tsunami" brought on chiefly by the Malaysian government's underestimation of the impact of the Internet.
But for Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the elections across the Causeway and in Taiwan, both of which saw incumbent ruling parties trounced, held some simple truths.
"My conclusion is this: If the People's Action Party wants to continue to have the support of the people, it has to maintain an incorruptible and capable government; continue to reflect the wishes of the people; and continue to strive for a better future for Singapore," said Mr Lee.
Speaking to Lianhe Zaobao, Mr Lee was asked whether the Singapore Government drew any lessons from the recent elections in Malaysia and Taiwan. He also revealed that the government would be updating the regulations on new media in time for the 2011 elections.
Said Mr Lee: "We will study if we should relax parts of the regulations but we will look at this issue very carefully, to prevent any adverse effect."
Citing the controversial video released by a Dutch right-wing lawmaker Geert Wilders — which criticised the Quran — and the anti-George Bush documentaries by American filmmaker Michael Moore, Mr Lee expressed concern on how Singaporeans are using the new media to disseminate news and information without sufficient understanding of the political motivation of the sources.
Besides the difficulty in refuting fallacious statements on cyberspace, Mr Lee noted that the free-for-all Internet environment throws up another potential minefield: How should political advertising be regulated, especially when political parties can post video clips on online platforms such as YouTube?
"From a narrow viewpoint, if the political party needs to put up political advertisements, the PAP has the advantage because we have the resources. But from a broader national perspective, this is not a good thing … political donations never come without strings attached," said Mr Lee.
Noting that the level of political debates in Singapore has generally gone up a notch, Mr Lee noted that some of the speeches by the Nominated Members of Parliament have sparked "widespread reactions" among the public.
Said Mr Lee: "The Government might not agree with their views but it is good that they can speak their mind in Parliament. This is how it should be and it also fulfils our objective of appointing NMPs."
But Mr Lee was less approving in his assessment of the performance of the Opposition MPs.
"In fact, they seldom engage the Government head-on in Parliamentary debates. Potong Pasir MP Chiam See Tong speaks less nowadays. Non-constituency MP Sylvia Lim's speeches are rather cautious and reserved, which, of course, is a good thing," said Mr Lee.
On Workers' Party's chief Low Thia Khiang, Mr Lee said: "He is very sharp but he seldom debates about the thrust of government policies and the broader issues. It seems like he is more passionate about nitpicking and making the government look bad — which is quite different from the rousing speeches he gave in the election rallies."
He added: "His attitude is that his responsibility is just to criticise government policies, and not to offer alternatives."
Mr Low and Ms Lim could not be reached for comments at press time. Mr Chiam declined to respond.
While the Government has been increasing efforts to explain its policies to Singaporeans — due to the rising educational levels and the growing complexity of policies — there would always be criticisms, said Mr Lee, who felt that these critics usually agree with the policies' objectives but disagree on the mechanics. And some do not understand the policies fully.
Said Mr Lee: "In fact, if we test people's understanding of policies, I think even news workers and PAP MPs might not pass."
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Australian, N.Z. Dollars Rise as Stock Gains Spur Carry Trades
By Ron Harui and Tracy Withers
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose as gains in U.S. and Asian stocks encouraged investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
Australia's dollar strengthened for a third day against the yen and New Zealand's currency advanced for a second after better-than-expected earnings at U.S. banks restored confidence in so-called carry trades. The Australian currency also appreciated for a third day versus the U.S.'s on speculation demand from China for the nation's commodity exports will stoke economic growth.
``Everything is running in the Australian dollar's favor at the moment, so the direction will be to the upside,'' said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney.
The Australian dollar climbed the most since April 2 versus the yen, gaining 1.5 percent to 95.68 yen as of 4:31 p.m. in Sydney from 94.28 yen late in Asia yesterday. It rose to 93.74 U.S. cents from 93.28 cents. The currency reached 94.02 cents, the highest in a month, and may rise to a 23-year high of 95 cents in coming weeks, Gibbs said.
The New Zealand dollar advanced 1.3 percent to 80.68 yen, the largest gain since April 2. It strengthened to 79.03 U.S. cents from 78.78 cents.
``Strong gains in equities are helping to bolster risk appetite and demand for high-yielding currencies,'' said Danica Hampton, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. ``The New Zealand dollar should be well-supported.''
Stock Rally
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares rose 1.1 percent today after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 2.3 percent yesterday. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, and Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest on the West Coast, reported results yesterday that exceeded forecasts of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The currencies of Australia and New Zealand are favorites for the carry trade because the nations' benchmark interest rates are 7.25 percent and 8.25 percent respectively, compared with 0.5 percent in Japan.
In a carry trade, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in another with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the two. The risk is currency market moves erase those profits.
Australia's dollar also advanced as China, the nation's second-biggest destination for shipments, reported yesterday its economy grew a faster-than-estimated 10.6 percent last quarter, helping boost metals price. An index of six metals in London rose 2.9 percent, increasing the value of raw material shipments overseas that contribute 17 percent of Australia's economy.
`China's Emergence'
``The timing of China's emergence as an independent source of world economic growth could not be better for Australia,'' Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, wrote in a research note yesterday. ``It means world commodity prices can stay at levels that will give a significant kick to income and spending.''
The Australian dollar will rise to 96 cents by mid-year with a 45 percent chance of it trading one-for-one with the U.S. currency, Capurso said in the report. The nation's second- largest lender previously put the odds of parity between the two currencies at 30 percent.
Australian government bonds fell for a third day. The yield on the 10-year note rose 5 basis points to 6.18 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 5 1/4 percent bond due March 2019 fell 0.374, or A$3.74 per A$1,000 face amount, to 92.675. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
New Zealand government bonds also declined, pushing the yield on the 6 percent note due December 2017 up 1 basis point to 6.42 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
The Demise of the Euro
Avi Tiomkin
04.18.08, 12:00 AM ET
Tensions between inflation-obsessed Germany and growth-hungry Latin countries will spell its end.
It is only a matter of time, probably less than three years, until the euro experiment meets its end. The financial crisis in the U.S. is hastening the process, as investors flee the dollar, pushing the euro to a price of $1.59. But it will not stay high for long. Countries like Spain and Italy will withdraw and return to their old currencies. Once that happens, get ready for the return of the deutsche mark and the French franc.
What will undo the euro: the mounting tension between the inflation-obsessed German bloc (including Austria, Luxembourg and the Netherlands) and the Latin bloc of France, Italy and Spain. The Germans, saddled with memories of the hyperinflation that brought the Nazi Party into power, remain singularly focused on fiscal and monetary discipline. Despite core inflation in the euro zone of only 2.4% and a slowing global economy, the Germans insist that the European Central Bank maintain a tight monetary policy. In direct opposition to Germany, the Latin bloc, joined by Ireland, wants the ECB to lower interest rates.
Spain's worsening real estate slump dramatically illustrates the problem faced by the Latin bloc. For years Spanish home building and buying outstripped that of Germany, Italy and France combined. Now that the boom has turned to bust, the Spanish central bank cannot lower interest rates. Nor can the treasury devalue the currency. Bound to the euro, Spain can only complain to the ECB, while watching its economy circle the drain.
European heads of state and the European business press are making their discontent public in stark language. "We cannot continue to cope with the autism of some bankers who do not understand that the priority is not fighting inflation, which is nonexistent, but fighting for more growth," declared French President Nicolas Sarkozy last year. In October, in response to German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck's comment that he "loves a strong euro," leading Italian business newspaper Il Sole ran a headline labeling the remark "a declaration of war." "Italy has lost the ability to grow," the Italian finance minister, himself one of the founding members of the ECB, admitted recently.
The euro has long had detractors, who question the viability of political and monetary union in Europe. Haunted by World War II, the generation of leaders that included Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand was willing to give up sovereign powers and national interests to create a common currency. But with no shared language, customs, culture or political system, the euro zone has never existed except as a construct in the minds of bureaucrats and politicians.
Now, as the divisions increase, insiders are beginning to take a dim view of the prospects for continued monetary union. "We believe the euro will not survive in the long run in the absence of some kind of political support," the president of BusinessEurope, a pan-European business association, stated in early March.
Along with the steep selloff that will precede the disintegration of the high-flying euro, other markets will be shaken. Look for much higher interest rates for prospective euro deserters like Spain and Italy as spreads for benchmark German bonds widen.
What should investors do? Gradually start to hoard dollars and short the euro. Another strategy is to sell investments in Italy and Spain and buy German fixed-income assets.
The political situation in Europe is likely to accelerate the euro's demise. Now that the Spanish elections are over, politicians there no longer feel the need to remain silent about mounting economic woes. If, as Italian polls predict, Silvio Berlusconi becomes that country's prime minister, the man who criticized the euro as "a disaster" would join a common front ready to take action by the time Sarkozy's France assumes the European Union presidency this summer.
The tight-money Germans will not push to preserve the euro. A poll released at the end of 2007 by Dresdner Bank showed that 62% of Germans support reinstating the deutsche mark as the country's currency. It appears that their wish will come true.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
HDB supply of completed new flats hits all-time low
JESSICA CHEAM
April 18, 2008
THE Housing Board yesterday alerted couples looking to buy completed new flats that its supply had now dipped to an all-time low of 1,300.
With the 'progressive clearance' of its unsold stock, there will be fewer completed units offered for sale in future, it said.
The HDB is now urging buyers to consider its build-to-order (BTO) flats where there will be 'ample supply and regular project launches'.
BTO flats will be the main source of new flats in future, the board has said. These flats are built only when there is sufficient demand, and usually take about three years to build.
The next two BTO sales will be launched at the end of the month, for flats in Punggol and Sengkang.
These new flats and others in towns such as Woodlands and Bukit Panjang will make up the 5,000 new flats the HDB plans to offer in the period until September.
The HDB's latest sale of completed flats, launched on April 10 - of 490 four-room or bigger flats in various towns such as Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang, Choa Chu Kang and Jurong East - had received 5,700 applications by the time it closed on Wednesday.
The ratio of about 10 applicants for every flat offered under its bi-monthly sales programme is 'similar to other sale exercises conducted over the past year', said the board.
The take-up rate is high because flats offered have been completed or are nearing completion.
The HDB advised buyers to 'plan ahead for their housing needs' to minimise waiting.
It also acknowledged recent public feedback that applicants who are not serious buyers 'should be discouraged from participating in sales exercises, to avoid crowding out those with more pressing housing needs'.
In recent BTO launches, for example, Punggol Vista, Fernvale Vista (Phase Two) and Coral Spring in Sengkang had take-up rates of 72, 65 and 70 per cent respectively.
Many initial applicants did not go ahead and make a purchase despite the chance to do, perhaps because their desired units had been sold, or they had decided on other housing options.
The HDB said that it is reviewing the flat application system to address this concern.
Only flats at Telok Blangah Towers and Treelodge @ Punggol, HDB's environmentally friendly project, had high take-up rates of 100 and 94 per cent respectively, it told The Straits Times.
Recently, the board also revised its launches and will sell three-room and smaller unsold flats once every three months, instead of once a month. And the bigger flats - three-room premium and above - will be sold half-yearly starting Oct 10, instead of every two months.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
TPV posts Q1 LCD TV sales dive, sees strong 2008
Fri Apr 18, 2008 8:25am BST
HONG KONG, April 18 (Reuters) - TPV Technology, the world's largest maker of PC monitors, posted a sharp fall in sales of liquid-crystal display TVs in the first quarter but will stick to a target of expanding revenue by a fifth this year to $10 billion, its finance chief said.
Shane Tyau, Vice President of Corporate Finance, told Reuters on Friday that TPV recorded a 30 to 40 percent dive in shipments of LCD TVs -- its stated driver of growth for the future -- in the first three months, versus the previous quarter.
He blamed seasonal fluctuations and stressed that demand would stay strong this year as branded LCD makers turn to contract designers and manufacturers such as TPV in the coming year, when intense competition is expected to squeeze margins.
Tyau added that, barring unforeseen factors that might affect its shipments, the firm expects to meet its revenue target.
TPV has big plans to expand its share of a hyper-competitive global market in coming years.
It hopes to take 30 percent of the global PC monitor market and 15 percent of the liquid-crystal display TV market within five years -- based in large part on displays it makes for other brands such as LG and Philips -- a booming but cut-throat arena of which it now controls barely 5 percent, ranking fifth.
Samsung controls nearly 17 percent of that market, while Sony has an 11.5 percent slice. LG Electronics has 7.8 percent. Makers of LCD panels say they saw solid demand and steady pricing in a traditionally slow first quarter, helped by sharp cuts in investment last year.
Analysts expect the market to tilt into oversupply at the end of the year, but many say the scale of excess production would be small, with TV demand growing fast.
The Hong Kong- and Singapore-listed firm aimed to ship 50 million PC monitors, the lion's share of which are based on LCD technology. It's targeting moving 7 million LCD TVs.
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
ひだまりの詩 - Le Couple (ル・クプル)
作曲: 日向敏文
歌詞: 水野幸代
逢えなくなって どれくらいたつのでしょう
出した手紙も 今朝ポストに舞い戻った
窓辺に揺れる 目を覚ました若葉のよに
長い冬を越え 今ごろ気づくなんて
どんなに言葉にしても足りないくらい
あなた愛してくれた すべて包んでくれた
まるで ひだまりでした
菜の花燃える 二人最後のフォトグラフ
「送るからね」と約束はたせないけれど
もしも今なら 優しさもひたむきさも
両手にたばねて 届けられたのに
それぞれ別々の人 好きになっても
あなた残してくれた すべて忘れないで
誰かを愛せるよに
広い空の下 二度と逢えなくても生きてゆくの
こんな私のこと心から
あなた愛してくれた 全て包んでくれた
まるで ひだまりでした
あなた愛してくれた 全て包んでくれた
それは ひだまりでした
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
As Australia dries, a global shortage of rice
Drought contributes to shortage of food staple
By Keith Bradsher
April 17, 2008
DENILIQUIN, Australia: Lindsay Renwick, the mayor of this dusty southern Australian town, remembers the constant whir of the rice mill. "It was our little heartbeat out there, tickety-tick-tickety," he said, imitating the giant fans that dried the rice, "and now it has stopped."
The Deniliquin mill, the largest rice mill in the Southern Hemisphere, once processed enough grain to satisfy the daily needs of 20 million people. But six long years of drought have taken a toll, reducing Australia's rice crop by 98 percent and leading to the mothballing of the mill last December.
Ten thousand miles separate the mill's hushed rows of oversized silos and sheds — beige, gray and now empty — from the riotous streets of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, but a widening global crisis unites them.
The collapse of Australia's rice production is one of several factors contributing to a doubling of rice prices in the last three months — increases that have led the world's largest exporters to restrict exports severely, spurred panicked hoarding in Hong Kong and the Philippines, and set off violent protests in countries including Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, the Philippines, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Yemen.
Drought affects every agricultural industry based here, not just rice — from sheepherding, the other mainstay in this dusty land, to the cultivation of wine grapes, the fastest-growing crop here, with that expansion often coming at the expense of rice.
The drought's effect on rice has produced the greatest impact on the rest of the world, so far. It is one factor contributing to skyrocketing prices, and many scientists believe it is among the earliest signs that a warming planet is starting to affect food production.
While a link between short-term changes in weather and long-term climate change is not certain, the unusually severe drought is consistent with what climatologists predict will be a problem of increasing frequency.
Indeed, the chief executive of the National Farmers' Federation in Australia, Ben Fargher, says, "Climate change is potentially the biggest risk to Australian agriculture."
Drought has already spurred significant changes in Australia's agricultural heartland. Some farmers are abandoning rice, which requires large amounts of water, to plant less water-intensive crops like wheat or, especially here in southeastern Australia, wine grapes. Other rice farmers have sold their fields or their water rights, usually to grape growers.
Scientists and economists worry that the reallocation of scarce water resources — away from rice and other grains and toward more lucrative crops and livestock — threatens poor countries that import rice as a dietary staple.
The global agricultural crisis is threatening to become a political one, pitting the United States and other developed countries against the developing world over the need for affordable food versus the need for renewable energy. Many poorer nations worry that subsidies from rich countries to support biofuels, which turn food, like corn, into fuel, are pushing up the price of staplesThe World Bank and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization both called on major agricultural countries to overhaul policies to avoid a social explosion from rising food prices.
With rice, which is not used to make biofuel, the problem is availability. Even in normal times, little of the world's rice is actually exported — more than 90 percent is consumed in the countries where it is grown. In the last quarter-century, rice consumption has outpaced production, with global reserves plunging by half just since 2000. Current economic uncertainty has led producers to hoard rice and speculators and investors even see it as a lucrative, or at least safe, investment.
All these factors have made countries that buy rice on the global market vulnerable to extreme price swings.
Senegal and Haiti each import four-fifths of their rice. And both have faced mounting unrest as prices have increased. Police suppressed violent demonstrations in Dakar on March 30, and unrest has spread to other rice-dependent nations in West Africa, notably Ivory Coast. The Haitian president, René Préval, after a week of riots, announced subsidies for rice buyers on Saturday.
Scientists expect the problem to worsen in the decades ahead.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, set up by the United Nations, predicted last year that even slight warming would decrease agricultural output in tropical and subtropical countries.
Moderate warming could benefit crop and pasture yields in countries far from the Equator, like Canada and Russia. In fact, the net effect of moderate warming is likely to be higher total food production around the world in the next several decades.
But the scientists said the effect would be uneven, and enormous quantities of food would need to be shipped from areas farther from the Equator to feed the populations of often less-affluent countries closer to the Equator.
The panel predicted that even greater warming, which might happen by late in this century if few or no limits are placed on greenhouse gas emissions, would hurt total food output and cripple crops in many countries.
Paul Lamine N'Dong, an elder in Joal, Senegal, worries that hot weather and failing rains have already crippled his village's crop of millet, a coarse grain eaten locally and traded for rice.
Sitting on a concrete dais reserved for elders, N'Dong said on a recent morning, "The price rises very quickly, which means we really have to go and look for money."
"It is live or die," he said.
Survival Techniques
For farmers in a richer nation like Australia the effects of the current drought are already significant.
The rice farmers who do not give up and sell their land or water rights are experimenting with varieties or techniques that require less water. Australia now has some of the world's highest rice yields for a given quantity of water.
Still, Australia's total rice capacity has declined by about a third because many farmers have permanently sold water rights, mostly for grape production. And production last year was far lower because of a severe shortage of water; rice farmers received one-eighth of the water they are usually promised by the government.
The accidental beneficiaries of these conditions have been the farmers who grow wine grapes in the same river basin where the Deniliquin mill stands silent.
Even with the recent doubling of rice prices, to around $1,000 a metric ton for the high grades produced by Australia, it is even more profitable to grow wine grapes.
All told, wine grapes produce a pretax profit of close to $2,000 an acre while rice produces a pretax profit around $240 an acre.
Ranchers like Peter Milliken, who raises sheep on 37,500 acres near Hay, Australia, are trying to reduce the water they use. Milliken is installing a buried nine-mile pipe to replace an irrigation canal that lost up to 90 percent of its water to evaporation — and planning for the day when he does not irrigate at all.
Sheep farmers have already worked out cooperative arrangements to send flocks to whatever fields have recently received rain, sometimes herding or trucking them long distances. Keeping an eye on a flock, Frank Cox, a drover, said recently, "We had to move the sheep because they were dying of starvation, and truck them down here."
The changes here are making rice harder to find.
For instance, SunRice, the Australian rice trading and marketing giant owned by the country's rice growers, began preparing to mothball the Deniliquin mill five months ago, when it noticed that Australian farmers were planting almost no rice. To make sure that it could continue supplying the domestic market, as well as export markets in Papua New Guinea, South Pacific island nations, Taiwan and the Middle East, SunRice went into international markets and stepped up rice purchases from other countries, the chief executive, Gary Helou, said
The SunRice purchases became one among the many factors that are making it harder for longtime rice importers elsewhere to find supplies.
Seeking Hardier Rice
Researchers are looking for solutions to global rice shortages — for example, rice that blooms earlier in the day, when it is cooler, to counter global warming. Rice plants that happen to bloom on hot days are less likely to produce grains of rice, a difficulty that is already starting to emerge in inland areas of China and other Asian countries as temperatures begin to climb.
"There will be problems very soon unless we have new varieties of rice in place," said Reiner Wassmann, climate change coordinator at the International Rice Research Institute near Manila, a leader in developing higher-yielding strains of rice for nearly half a century.
The recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change carried an important caveat that could make the news even worse: the panel said that existing models for the effects of climate change on agriculture did not yet include newer findings that global warming could reduce rainfall and make it more variable.
Many agronomists contend that changes in the timing and amount of rain are more important for crops than temperature changes. Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the panel, said long-range climate forecasts for precipitation would require another 5 to 20 years of research, depending on the region.
In addition to drought, climate change could also produce more extreme weather, more outbreaks of pests and weeds, and changes in sea level as polar ices melts. Most of the world's increase in rice production over the last quarter-century has occurred close to sea level, in the deltas of rivers like the Mekong in Vietnam, Chao Phraya in Thailand and Ganges-Brahmaputra in Bangladesh.
Yet the effects of climate change are not uniformly bad for rice. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, can actually help rice plants and other crops — although the effect dwindles or disappears if the plants face excessive heat, inadequate water, severe pollution or other stresses.
Still, the flexibility of farmers and ranchers here has persuaded some climate experts that, particularly in developed countries, the effects of climate change may be mitigated, if not completely avoided.
"I'm not as pessimistic as most people," said Will Steffen, the director of the Fenner School of Environment and Society at Australian National University. "Farmers are learning how to do things differently."
Meanwhile, changes like the use of water to grow wine grapes instead of rice carry their own costs, as the developing world is discovering.
"Rice is a staple food," said Graeme Haley, the general manager of the town of Deniliquin. "Chardonnay is not."
Posted Friday, April 18, 2008
Crude reverses losses, topping $116 for first time
By Moming Zhou & Polya Lesova
April 18, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures reversed earlier losses, rising more than $1 a barrel on Friday to surpass $116 a barrel, as news about pipeline sabotage in Nigeria overtook the strengthening dollar to push up oil prices.
Crude oil for May delivery gained more than $1 to a new all-time high of $116.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in mid-afternoon trading. It was last seen up $1.14, or 1%, at $116 a barrel.
Traders said prices are rising after the main militant group in Nigeria's oil-rich region said it sabotaged a pipeline operated by a unit of Royal Dutch Shell PlC on Friday.
"With this pipeline blowing up, traders have to think what else could happen over the weekend," said Phil Flynn, vice president of futures brokerage Alaron Trading. "The bears are already having a kind of a weak hand now."
Crude was mostly falling in morning trading as the dollar strengthened, weighing on dollar-denominated oil prices.
There was profit-taking in early trading "and also the boost in the dollar is having a major impact on prices," said Flynn.
On Thursday, crude futures fell 7 cents to settle at $114.86 a barrel after hitting a record high of $115.54 a barrel earlier in the session.
"The rise in the [oil] price has little to do with supply and demand, and has everything to do with the value of the dollar," Flynn said. "It really is all about the dollar right now and if the dollar shows any sign of strength, you'll see a lot of money come out of oil very quickly."
The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.9% to 72.29.
Also on the Nymex, May reformulated gasoline fell slightly to $2.956 a gallon and May heating oil rose 1.49 cent to $3.2823 a gallon. May natural gas futures rallied 14.9 cents to $10.532 per million British thermal units.
Gold futures dropped 3% Friday, coming under heavy selling pressure as the dollar rallied.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Weekly Wrap
Last Update: 18-Apr-08 17:01 ET
What a difference a week makes.
Last Friday the market was bemoaning a very disappointing earnings report from General Electric (GE) and fearing the worst in front of this week's busy earnings reporting period. This Friday it exits the week in an upbeat mood, basking in a sense of relief that this week's earnings reports and economic data were better than feared.
The S&P 500 tacked on a cool 4.3%, which is a bigger gain than it registered for all of 2007! It was the Nasdaq, though, that led the action. With a gain of nearly 5.0%, it registered its best one-week showing since August 2006.
Google (GOOG) played a large role in the Nasdaq's outperformance as it soared 20% on Friday after eclipsing the first quarter consensus EPS estimate by $0.32 and reporting 20% growth in paid clicks. Growth in the latter metric shocked investors as third-party data suggested paid click growth would be in the single-digit range.
Google's good news came on the heels of a battery of better than expected earnings reports and outlooks from other tech bellwethers, namely Intel (INTC) and IBM (IBM). All three companies provided reassuring comments on the demand for their products and services and acknowledged the continued strength in international markets.
The takeaway from these reports, and others from the likes of Caterpillar (CAT), CSX Corp. (CSX), Coca-Cola (KO), and WW Grainger (GWW), was that the earnings picture isn't as dour as one might think when viewed from something other than the financial sector prism.
To the latter point, Thomson Financial estimated at the start of the week that first quarter earnings would decline 14.1%; however, when the financial sector is excluded, the growth rate for the remaining nine sectors would be 6.4%.
With respect to the financial sector, we got a reminder this week that business conditions are far from good.
Earnings reports from Wachovia (WB), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Citigroup (C) to name a few all showed sharp downturns versus the prior-year period and in each case, with the exception of JPMorgan Chase, losses for the first quarter.
These reports, though, weren't as bad as expected and that realization unleashed a wave of pent-up buying interest that sent the financial sector up 5.2% for the week.
Strikingly, the financial sector wasn't even the second best-performing sector for the week. That distinction belonged to the technology sector, which rallied 6.3%.
The biggest mover on the week was the energy sector, which advanced 7.7%, moving in near lockstep with oil prices, which shot up 6.1% and finished at a new all-time closing high of $116.90 per barrel.
The big move in oil was evident in a wholesale inflation report that showed producer prices rose 1.1% in March. Rising food prices also played a big part in that uptick, but when both food and energy were excluded, the increase in producer prices was a more palatable 0.2%.
Inflation at the consumer level was better contained, as seen in the Consumer Price Index, which increased 0.3% in March and just 0.2% excluding food and energy. That news and a report of a surprising 0.3% increase in March industrial production contributed to a big rally in the market on Wednesday.
It would be remiss not to add that housing starts and building permits both fell to a 17-year low in March, yet that news had little impact on the market which has grown accustomed to the negative reports on the housing front. Similarly, the market didn't pay much attention to a positive retail sales report for March on Monday knowing that rising gas prices were an influential factor behind the 0.2% increase.
This week the emphasis was on the good news or, in many situations, the better-than-feared news. That disposition led to some robust gains for the major indices.
Readers should remain cognizant, though, that there is a distinct difference between rallying on better-than-feared news and rallying on truly good news. Rallies based on the former can swing sentiment for a short period of time and produce some outsized gains, but it is truly good news that makes for longer-lasting upturns.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Blogs languish in high-tech Singapore
By SEAH CHIANG NEE
Saturday April 19, 2008
The ruling PAP, despite its sophistication, is years behind others in using it to pursue its political goals.
INTERNET-SAVVY Singaporeans, who make up the growing force of voters, are waiting to see how their government will respond to the web’s newly revealed power as a political tool.
A mood of anticipation has settled in among the people, who have watched with amazement the sweeping impact of the worldwide web in shaping public opinion in Malaysia.
For the Singapore government, which relies on newspapers and television to do the job, it is bad news.
So the question here is: To what extent will the erosion of government control on information and its grip on power quicken the process of loosening up?
How will the young leaders of the People’s Action Party (PAP) adapt to the new challenge?
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong hinted last week that laws would be relaxed to cope with the “rapidly changing” new media, but only carefully, an obviously cautious response.
“We will study if we should relax parts of the regulations but we will look at this issue very carefully, to prevent any adverse effect,” he said.
This had raised a few initial cheers until people started reading his cautionary remarks that followed.
His ‘loosening up’ interview with a newspaper was punctuated by concern that freely-run blogs during elections – the type that Malaysians were allowed to do – could lead to corruption.
He offered no details. Some observers believe he was referring to the possibility that bloggers might be financed or bribed by interested parties.
For me, it simply means that a Malaysia-style digital coup is out – period.
But the saga in Kuala Lumpur – and Singaporeans’ growing resort to the Internet for information – is far from lost. Instead it has raised a wider picture beyond just changing laws.
It calls into question the whole top-down way the country is being governed at a time when a new generation of educated, demanding voters is taking over.
Actually the PAP had embraced the Internet earlier than most others when it built a fast-speed cable network to promote commerce and acquire skills.
But in politics, it is a different matter. The party, despite its sophistication, is years behind others in using it to pursue its political goals.
From the top down – PAP ministers to Members of Parliament to grassroots workers – the party is ill prepared to use the Internet to gain public support.
“This is surprising given its sophistication and vast resources,” said a media consultant. The problem, he added, lies in control, not lack of know-how.
A recent example of web reticence: A web-blog (http://www.p65.sg/) run by young PAP Parliamentarians to connect with Singaporeans has fallen into neglect.
Twelve MPS who were born after independence launched it 18 months ago declaring this “it’s where we talk” objective – but they haven’t been talking much.
It wasn’t regularly updated, said a news report, and it is languishing, with 80% of Singaporeans saying they didn’t even know of its existence.
I read several pages and found them too boring and cautious, apparently phrased to support policies rather than give frank, independent views on problems facing Singapore.
“These are capable people, so why is their writing so mundane? The answer is probably fear of speaking out of line,” said an online writer.
No PAP leader runs his or her own website, although Foreign Minister George Yeo blogs regularly – through a friend’s site.
Surprisingly the opposition, which has the most to gain from it, is faring even worse. Apart from the official sites, few leaders operate personal blogs.
The main opposition Workers Party is so fearful of defamation suits that it has forbidden its younger ‘gung-ho’ committee members from taking part in chat-sites under their names.
The immediate future is a little hazy, but the longer-term trend is clear.
The Internet is exerting more influence on the way Singaporeans live and think with each passing year.
In next five to 10 years, no politician in Singapore can afford not to use the web to reach out to voters. Tightening laws can only hinder but not stop it.
Some eight years ago as I was entering my sunset years, I launched my own information site after realising that I could sit in my room on this tiny island and post messages that could be read anywhere in the world 24 hours a day.
Because such a miracle was possible, I told myself I had do it before I left this world.
This is how many bloggers feel about their work, which is offering a wide range of diverse, alternative views and ideas that will drive the world – and Singapore – on.
Three years ago when political blogs began to spread their wings, I posted an article in my website asking Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew: “Why not start a blog?”
With his wisdom and sharp mind, I said, he should have his personal website so that he could pass his experience to young people through a medium they were getting accustomed to.
“The reason is compelling. More youths have stopped reading newspapers, preferring the Internet and this is not a passing fad,” I wrote.
In fact, “it is time for the government to make use of blogosphere as a place to talk with its citizens, rather than rely 100% on the mainstream media.”
If I were to add a postscript today, I would say: “It’s not a question of whether the government will do it but when.”
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
EQ vs IQ
http://www.p65.sg/
by Lam Pin Min
April 18th, 2008
Which is more important in success or failure in life?
EQ or Emotional Quotient is the measure of one’s ability or skill to perceive, assess and manage the emotions of one’s self, of others, and of groups, and then to use this information to guide one’s thinking and actions.
IQ or Intelligence Quotient is basically a measurement of one’s cognitive skills to learn, to understand and to apply the knowledge logically and analytically towards a situation. This measure of intelligence can be quantified by taking an IQ test. An IQ test measures different types of abilities, namely, verbal, memory, mathematical, spatial, and reasoning. This test has a preset standard based on a representative group of the population.
In layman’s language, IQ gets you through your education whereas EQ gets you through your life. Do you agree on this simplistic generalisation?
The debate about the validity and importance of IQ and EQ continues in professional circles and testing groups. Besides looking at academic qualifications, many companies now screen any potential employees using some form of EQ test.
In the search for good leaders, which quality is of greater importance? Interestingly, researches have shown that emotional intelligence may actually be significantly more important than cognitive ability and technical expertise combined. In fact, some studies indicate that EQ is more than twice as important as standard IQ abilities. Further, evidence increasingly shows that the higher one goes in an organization, the more important EQ can be. For those in leadership positions, emotional intelligence skills account for close to 90 percent of what distinguishes outstanding leaders from those judged as average.
Is it, therefore, necessary to impose some form of EQ tests, just like what most big corporations do, on potential political candidates?
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Where Are The Potential Prime Ministers?
www.sgpolitics.net
Written by Dr Wong Wee Nam
16 April 2008
The Malaysian General Elections has just ended and Abdullah Badawi has continued as the Prime Minister. But he is now having problems keeping the job. This is because there are many who want to take over. Even Anwar Ibrahim, who is not even an elected Member of Parliament, is eyeing the job. Just as there are many who had vied for the posts of Menteri Besar in the State governments, there is no lack of candidates for the post of the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
In the United Kingdom, when a schoolboy visits 10 Downing Street, he invariably likes to pose in front of the official residence of the Prime Minister of Great Britain for a picture. In other words, it is a schoolboy’s dream to become the Prime Minister of Britain. It is not that the job of the Prime Minister in Great Britain pays very well. It does not.
Compare to footballers like Christiano Ronaldo or David Beckham, the Prime Minister’s job is a lowly-paid one. Even by Singapore’s standards, it is an extremely lowly-paid job. The pay is only a fraction of the salary of a similar position in Singapore.
Yet Great Britain, like Malaysia, does not lack candidates for the position of Prime Minister. In fact, there is even no lack of candidates for the position of a shadow Prime Minister on the opposition bench.
No country in the world has difficulty finding people willing to become Prime Minister or running for Presidency. No country except Singapore, that is. The Straits Times of 2nd April 2008 reads : “PM still looking for his successor”.
Uniquely Singapore
We must be in a very unique situation in the world. With a job that is the highest paid in the world, it is a wonder we are still looking for a successor. This must be the only country in the world where people are very reluctant to be office-holders. Something must be very, very wrong – either with the country or with the quality of our people.
Has our gene pool become so depleted that we do not now have capable people to run the country? This cannot be so. Every year there are hundreds of students who graduate from our colleges with straight A’s and S-papers. Competition for scholarships and places in the universities is very keen. In world competitions, our students still come up top in Mathematics and Science. Our students regularly win the Angus Ross Prize for Literature and the Jessup Cup for mooting. So the quality of our gene pool is still very good.
The Failed Graduate Mother’s Scheme
The problem of a depleted good gene pool was raised a long time ago. Herbert Spencer and Francis Galton, the two famous social Darwinists, had told the world that having more intelligent people and less stupid people around would benefit society tremendously Many years ago, to enrich the gene pool and solve this problem of talent shortage, we tried to encourage the better-educated and our graduate mothers with a lot of incentives to reproduce more. Naturally the policy did not work because our womenfolk are not farm animals which will breed just because the farmer decides it should be done.
Even if our graduate mothers had consented to breed, the policy would still have failed to achieve its objective. Any breeder of racehorses, cows and pigs for speed, milk and bacon respectively will tell you that the success rate is very low even though there is only one attribute to aim for. What more then with human beings where there are more attributes to consider? The problem with breeding human beings is we would not know what attribute to aim for. A leader is not just someone who can produce good results in examinations. He must have the right temperament, the ability to communicate, creative thinking, compassion, courage and be decisive and possess a certain charisma to lead. Can these be bred?
True, a few of our students had broken scholarship bonds and some who went overseas to study have decided not to return. Still, this should not affect the number of people who are qualified to fill the post of the Prime Minister or any other ministerial post. After all, in Singapore, a person usually holds office for about fifteen years and this means you only need to find one replacement every fifteen or twenty years.
Reason for the Problem
So what is the problem? Why is it so difficult to find someone to become a Prime Minister in Singapore? It is not because Singapore is not ripe for revolution or that our people are so well-taken care off that we like to leave governing to others that we are faced with this problem. If revolution and economic dissatisfaction are the reasons for people wanting to become Prime Minister, then all the well-to-do stable democracies in the world would have difficulty looking for leaders.
The reason for the problem is in our culture. In Singapore nobody is taught from young to covet the job. The political climate here does not allow anyone to covet the job. Politics is not a profession that parents encourage their children to pursue. Therefore, a child in school will write about his or her ambition to become a doctor, lawyer, accountant, an engineer, an artist, a teacher or a writer but none will write about becoming a Prime Minister.
Furthermore, over the years, the general public has been primed to believe that a Prime Minister will only come through the PAP selection process. This is why Singapore will not be able to produce someone like Barack Obama, a first-term Senator trying to be leader of the world’s biggest democracy and the richest country in the world, vying for a job that would pay him only a fraction of what he could earn as a lawyer.
Without political contention, it is not surprising that Singaporeans have become so apathetic that even the PAP itself has difficulty finding good people.
If we want to have good flowers, then we need to allow many types of flowers to bloom and many nurseries to grow them. If we only inbreed a few species of flowers in one nursery and nip the rest in the bud, then the choice will be limited. Even if we add in a lot of fertilizers, the quality will still suffer from inbreeding and chemical poisoning.
Not only plants suffer from a lot of fertilizers. Psychologists have shown through experiments that even rats don’t work as hard when given too much rewards. Those given too much food lose their motivation to run on the treadmill than those who are rewarded with small increments. Similarly with human beings, psychologists have also found that people with intrinsic motivation perform better than those who are driven by extrinsic motivation to do the job.
It can therefore be concluded that with the exorbitant salaries paid to our office-holders, we will one day be bound to attract mainly extrinsically- motivated people to public office. When that time comes, it would indeed be a sad day for Singapore. A politician who is not intrinsically-motivated will serve himself first and cannot provide the servant leadership to serve the people. When that day comes, it would be even more difficult to find a really good person to fill the post of Prime Minister. A politician led by reward to work cannot be better than one motivated by altruism to serve.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Singapore opposition talks of unity as veteran returns
By Melanie Lee
Fri Apr 18, 2008
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The return of a veteran political leader in Singapore has led to talk of unity among fragmented opposition parties, but analysts on Friday dismissed hopes of major change in the city-state dominated by one party.
Eighty-two-year-old lawyer J.B Jeyaretnam, the first opposition member to break the ruling elite's grip on parliament 27 years ago, said his new Reform Party would challenge the "fundamentals" of the system and promised a party based on human and political rights.
"We in Singapore are denied the rights to speak up, to tell the government to change course," said Jeyaretnam at a press conference on Friday.
Jeyaretnam, hard of hearing and wearing a T-shirt that read "The truth shall set you free", is giving politics another shot after a seven-year hiatus. He registered a new political party on Thursday to contest the next elections due in 2011.
Opposition party members said his re-entry would boost Singapore's fledging opposition parties, crippled by infighting, and provide variety in an arena dominated by the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965.
"The current cooperation between opposition parties is very superficial right now," said Yaw Shin Leong, organising secretary of the Worker's Party, one of the three active opposition parties.
"J.B. Jeyaretnam is a veteran and he sees the benefits and opportunities of working together for a democratic process," he said.
"We are trying to get towards a more united front," added Singapore Democratic Party leader Chee Soon Juan. "All the opposition parties are working towards Jeyaretnam's system of reforming the political system."
Jeyaretnam was declared bankrupt in 2001 when he failed to pay libel damages to members of the ruling party, and was therefore unable to run for parliament under Singapore laws until his discharge from bankruptcy last year.
While opposition leaders will be hoping for a shock election result to rival neighbouring Malaysia, where opposition parties last month denied the ruling party a two-thirds majority for the first time in 40 years, commentators did not see a major shift.
"It really depends on who he gets into his party, Jeyaretnam is just one man," said Seah Chiang Nee, a political commentator and former Singapore newspaper editor.
The PAP, which won 82 out of the 84 parliamentary seats in the 2006 general elections, said it did not view Jeyaretnam's new party as a threat.
"There are already many registered political parties in Singapore contesting the general elections. Mr Jeyaretnam's new party will be just another one," Lau Ping Sum, executive director of the PAP, told Reuters in an email.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
STI Vodcast, Duration: 1 min 45 secs
JBJ's new party to contest next elections
April 19, 2008
If and when iconic politician J.B. Jeyaretnam's yet-to-be-formed Reform Party comes into being, he will contest the next elections.
The party today announced that it has submitted an application to be registered.
Heralding plans for change, the 82-year-old opposition stalwart said his priority is to empower the people and eradicate poverty.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Oil hits US$117 on talk of Nigeria pipeline attack
19 April 2008
NEW YORK : Oil prices rebounded to a new record high of 117 dollars a barrel here Friday as traders refocused on supply fears after talk of a pipeline attack in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer.
New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in May, surged 1.83 dollars higher to a record close of 116.69 dollars. It had hit an intraday all-time peak of 117 dollars around 1850 GMT.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for June struck a record intraday high of 114.22 dollars before easing back to settle at a record 113.92 dollars, a gain of 1.49 dollars.
Oil prices earlier had pulled back after striking record highs above 115 dollars Thursday on the back of a weakening dollar and tight US energy stockpiles.
"We saw crude come down earlier on, off the back of the stronger US dollar, but the underlying factor is there are still supply concerns for crude," said CMC Markets trader Nas Nijjar, adding that some traders were using crude's earlier decline to re-establish long positions ahead of the New York contract's expiry next week.
Supply fears were stoked after Nigerian militants claimed Friday to have sabotaged a major oil pipeline belonging to Anglo-Dutch oil group Royal Dutch Shell, promising "many more" similar attacks.
The pipeline targeted late Thursday was connected to the Bonny exports terminal -- the largest in the country with a storage capacity of around 7 million barrels of crude oil, the militants said in a statement.
Shell spokesmen in Nigeria and the Netherlands have been unable to immediately confirm the attack due to the remoteness of the area in which the militants claim to have struck.
Shell, Nigeria's largest oil operator, accounts for around half of the country's 2.1 million barrels per day output. Supply risks are helping to boost prices as many investors continue to view crude markets as tight.
A rebound in the dollar has helped to keep gains in check, as commodities priced in the US currency become more expensive for overseas investors. A surge in US equity markets Friday also curbed the appeal of crude markets as a financial hedge against the recent economic turmoil and dollar weakness.
Speaking before the 116-dollar breakthrough in New York, Sucden analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said trading had been "relatively quiet but still supported by persistent supply concerns and the weak dollar."
The US dollar, which hit a fresh record low against the euro on Thursday, stimulates demand for dollar-priced goods because they become cheaper for foreign buyers holding stronger currencies.
"The broad weakness in the US dollar is still supporting commodities; while oil investors are also concerned about tight gasoline supplies in the US ahead of the summer driving season when demand for gasoline peaks," Kryuchenkov said.
Prices rocketed to historic heights this week after news of sliding energy stockpiles in the United States, the biggest energy consumer.
US crude oil inventories slumped 2.3 million barrels in the week ending April 11, far more than the consensus forecast of 1.8 million.
Crude reserves stand at 313.7 million barrels, in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.
Gasoline stocks fell 5.5 million barrels, four times more than market expectations.
On Sunday, the oil world's leaders are to gather in Rome for the International Energy Forum amid political calls for increased production as record crude prices weigh on a slowing global economy.
Oil ministers from the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will be joined by chief executives of major producers as some 500 delegates assemble for the three-day biannual conference. - AFP /ls
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
纽约汇市综述：美元兑主要货币走高，花旗业绩推动股市上涨
2008年4月19日
美元兑欧元和日圆周五走高，投资者对美国资产的风险偏好增加，美国公司此前发布的业绩还算令人满意，令市场相信美国信贷市场危机的最坏时期已经过去。
在周四创下历史高位1.5985美元后，欧元周五盘中一度跌至1.5711美元。美元兑日圆也升至104.66日圆，为2月29日以来最高水平；美元兑瑞士法郎也升至3月12日以来最高水平1.0285瑞士法郎。
Brown Brothers Harriman驻纽约的汇市策略师Win Thin称，美元元气似乎在复原，风险偏好回归，日圆再遭抛售。
欧元兑日圆升至年内最高水平164.68日圆。
Brown Brothers Harriman分析师补充称，越来越多的证据显示，美国的信贷紧张的状况有所缓解。
他们在研究报告中写道，截至周四当周，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)向商业银行和证券公司贷款额减少78亿美元，降幅为24%；商业银行通过贴现窗口贷款额减少23亿美元，降幅为23%；而包括为摩根大通(JP Morgan)收购贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)提供贷款在内的授信贷款余额为零。
尾盘时获利了结令美元回吐部分涨幅。
纽约汇市周五尾盘，电子交易系统显示，欧元兑1.5812美元，周四尾盘报1.5883美元；美元兑103.72日圆，周四尾盘报102.64日圆；欧元兑163.95日圆，周四尾盘报163.05日圆；英镑兑1.9940美元，周四尾盘报1.9910美元；美元兑1.0177瑞士法郎，周四尾盘报1.0078瑞士法郎。
日本经济增长恶化的迹象也为美元兑日圆提供支撑。
日本央行(Bank of Japan)周五连续第二个季度下调对该国地方经济的核心经济评估，意味着日本央行在本月晚些时候公布的半年度经济前景报告中倾向于下调预期。
但三菱东京UFJ银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ)的汇市策略师Naomi Fink称，地方经济越来越不能代表日本经济增长前景。
同时JP摩根(JP Morgan)周五公布的调查发现，日本企业也对全球经济增长及美元走强的前景持乐观态度。
据JP摩根在3月26日至4月4日对美国、欧元区和日本61家匿名客户所做的调查发现，相对于美国和欧洲通过对冲规避汇率变动的企业来说，日本企业对美元兑欧元和日圆走强的前景尤其乐观。
美国和欧洲的受访者对汇率前景的预期普遍一致，美国受访者预计2008年年底欧元兑美元将为1.51美元，欧洲受访者的预期为1.52美元。但日本受访者的平均预期为1.46美元。
调查结果反映了各地区对于全球经济增长的预期。
欧洲企业对全球增长预期是最为悲观的，27%的受访者认为全球经济将大幅放缓；但多数日本企业认为全球经济持稳或者强劲，或者略显疲弱；只有5%的日本受访者称全球经济将大幅放缓。
调查报告称，对于全球经济相对乐观的观点可能是日本企业更看跌日本汇率的主要原因。
日本的企业并不总是这么乐观。
该报告指出，这是2006年第三季度以来日本企业在调查中首次看跌日圆。
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Food
The silent tsunami
Food prices are causing misery and strife around the world. Radical solutions are needed
The Economist
Apr 17th 2008
PICTURES of hunger usually show passive eyes and swollen bellies. The harvest fails because of war or strife; the onset of crisis is sudden and localised. Its burden falls on those already at the margin.
Today's pictures are different. “This is a silent tsunami,” says Josette Sheeran of the World Food Programme, a United Nations agency. A wave of food-price inflation is moving through the world, leaving riots and shaken governments in its wake. For the first time in 30 years, food protests are erupting in many places at once. Bangladesh is in turmoil; even China is worried. Elsewhere, the food crisis of 2008 will test the assertion of Amartya Sen, an Indian economist, that famines do not happen in democracies.
Famine traditionally means mass starvation. The measures of today's crisis are misery and malnutrition. The middle classes in poor countries are giving up health care and cutting out meat so they can eat three meals a day. The middling poor, those on $2 a day, are pulling children from school and cutting back on vegetables so they can still afford rice. Those on $1 a day are cutting back on meat, vegetables and one or two meals, so they can afford one bowl. The desperate—those on 50 cents a day—face disaster.
Roughly a billion people live on $1 a day. If, on a conservative estimate, the cost of their food rises 20% (and in some places, it has risen a lot more), 100m people could be forced back to this level, the common measure of absolute poverty. In some countries, that would undo all the gains in poverty reduction they have made during the past decade of growth. Because food markets are in turmoil, civil strife is growing; and because trade and openness itself could be undermined, the food crisis of 2008 may become a challenge to globalisation.
First find $700m
Rich countries need to take the food problems as seriously as they take the credit crunch. Already bigwigs at the World Bank and the United Nations are calling for a “new deal” for food. Their clamour is justified. But getting the right kind of help is not so easy, partly because food is not a one-solution-fits-all problem and partly because some of the help needed now risks making matters worse in the long run.
The starting-point should be that rising food prices bear more heavily on some places than others. Food exporters, and countries where farmers are self-sufficient, or net sellers, benefit. Some countries—those in West Africa which import their staples, or Bangladesh, with its huge numbers of landless labourers—risk ruin and civil strife. Because of the severity there, the first step must be to mend the holes in the world's safety net. That means financing the World Food Programme properly. The WFP is the world's largest distributor of food aid and its most important barrier between hungry people and starvation. Like a $1-a-day family in a developing country, its purchasing power has been slashed by the rising cost of grain. Merely to distribute the same amount of food as last year, the WFP needs—and should get—an extra $700m.
And because the problems in many places are not like those of a traditional famine, the WFP should be allowed to broaden what it does. At the moment, it mostly buys grain and doles it out in areas where there is little or no food. That is necessary in famine-ravaged places, but it damages local markets. In most places there are no absolute shortages and the task is to lower domestic prices without doing too much harm to farmers. That is best done by distributing cash, not food—by supporting (sometimes inventing) social-protection programmes and food-for-work schemes for the poor. The agency can help here, though the main burden—tens of billions of dollars' worth—will be borne by developing-country governments and lending institutions in the West.
Such actions are palliatives. But the food crisis of 2008 has revealed market failures at every link of the food chain. Any “new deal” ought to try to address the long-term problems that are holding poor farmers back.
Then stop the distortions
In general, governments ought to liberalise markets, not intervene in them further. Food is riddled with state intervention at every turn, from subsidies to millers for cheap bread to bribes for farmers to leave land fallow. The upshot of such quotas, subsidies and controls is to dump all the imbalances that in another business might be smoothed out through small adjustments onto the one unregulated part of the food chain: the international market.
For decades, this produced low world prices and disincentives to poor farmers. Now, the opposite is happening. As a result of yet another government distortion—this time subsidies to biofuels in the rich world—prices have gone through the roof. Governments have further exaggerated the problem by imposing export quotas and trade restrictions, raising prices again. In the past, the main argument for liberalising farming was that it would raise food prices and boost returns to farmers. Now that prices have massively overshot, the argument stands for the opposite reason: liberalisation would reduce prices, while leaving farmers with a decent living.
There is an occasional exception to the rule that governments should keep out of agriculture. They can provide basic technology: executing capital-intensive irrigation projects too large for poor individual farmers to undertake, or paying for basic science that helps produce higher-yielding seeds. But be careful. Too often—as in Europe, where superstitious distrust of genetic modification is slowing take-up of the technology—governments hinder rather than help such advances. Since the way to feed the world is not to bring more land under cultivation, but to increase yields, science is crucial.
Agriculture is now in limbo. The world of cheap food has gone. With luck and good policy, there will be a new equilibrium. The transition from one to the other is proving more costly and painful than anyone had expected. But the change is desirable, and governments should be seeking to ease the pain of transition, not to stop the process itself.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Low food prices are thing of the past: Experts
Agencies
April 18, 2008
New Delhi, April 18: Amid rising commodity prices worldwide, UK-based strategic think-tank IISS said the era of cheap food and low-priced crude oil is a thing of the past and the world will have to learn to deal with the situation.
"It is difficult to envisage any way back to the era of cheap food and 10 dollar a barrel oil ... and this poses a significant challenge. There are no easy answers," said Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risks Nigel Inkster at the opening press conference of the IISS-CITO Indian Global Forum.
He said rising food prices is a bigger challenge as it affects a large section of poor people in the world.
Replying to questions about India-Pakistan relationship, Consulting Senior Fellow Hilary Synnott said there has been "tremendous development in thinking and action" of both the countries in terms of safety and protection of nuclear arsenal.
He further said it is imperative for all countries possessing nuclear weapons to guard against accidental use.
Referring to the emergence of Communist Party in Nepal, Senior Fellow for South Asia Rahul Roy-Chaudhury said, "it is too early to make assessment on the nature of relationship that could develop, but there have been encouraging signals from Kathmandu".
The experts said India would have to take along its neighbours as it emerges as a rising power on the world scene.
The three-day Forum being organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), beginning today, will see participation of experts from Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, US and Pakistan.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Rice: a risky business
One of Thailand's oldest-established rice exporters prefers caution during a time of price volatility
nophakhun limsamarnphun
nop1122@yahoo.com
the nation
Chookiat Ophaswongse, 54, has been an international rice trader since starting to work. He knows the trade inside-out and prefers to be risk-averse during this period of high price volatility.
His father, Samarn, was one of Thailand's first-ever rice traders during the late 1950s and early 1960s, when the Huay Chuan Rice Co was founded.
"In fact, my father traded rubber first. Then he switched to rice. Malaysia was the first foreign customer, as we shipped Thai rice over there by train. Later on, we shipped rice to Hong Kong," recalled Chookiat, who grew up in the family's business.
"Other traders and exporters in those days included Puay Heng Rong, Soon Hua Seng (or Kaset Rung Ruang), Thanaporn Chai (related to former TPI boss Prachai Leophairatana), Au Fong Lao and other Sino-Thai merchants.
"In those days, we also operated a rice mill in Saraburi but it shut down about 25 years ago because we didn't have the time to manage it properly.
"Even today, rice milling is a tough business and there isn't enough professional and reliable management out there. If you or other family members can't do it, it's a very risky enterprise," said Chookiat, who inherited the family business from his father more than a decade ago.
Chookiat got his MBA from Portland State University and a bachelor's degree in economics from Chulalongkorn University in the 1970s.
Today, Huay Chuan Rice is a medium-sized exporter handling about 200,000 tonnes of high-quality rice per year, including hom mali, or fragrant jasmine rice.
"Now, hom mali is the world's most expensive rice. We just sold it at a new record of over US$1,300 per tonne to customers in Hong Kong for May delivery. Singapore, Malaysia and China are also our major customers.
"Looking back some 45 years, a tonne of hom mali rice was just over US$100. Today, we've seen record prices of not only rice, but also crude oil [$120 per barrel], gold [$1,000 per ounce] and other commodities," said Chookiat.
As a veteran rice trader as well as president of Thailand's Rice Traders' Association, Chookiat doesn't like the current unprecedented price volatility of rice, as it means higher risks for all traders.
"The facts are contrary to public perception that we're making huge profits on the price surge. Now we need to do business much more cautiously, since prices are changing at high speed.
"It's unprecedented that some traders are losing as much as US$200-300 per tonne on advance orders placed by overseas clients just a few months ago.
"We're now in the fourth straight month of price upsurge, meaning that prices for all kinds of rice have more than doubled - from $360 to $860 per tonne for white rice and from $620 to $1,300 for fragrant jasmine rice.
"As traders, we prefer steady price adjustments, as stability means less risk. A key factor is the government's inventory, which has fallen to just two million tonnes from as much as six million tonnes, so prices will continue to be affected.
"In fact, the wheat price went up on the global market, which is essentially the Chicago Board of Trade, sometime before that of rice. However, rice is now more expensive than wheat, largely due to higher global demand.
"For instance, Africa's economy improved after the surge in oil prices so more Africans are eating rice instead of other staples such as corn.
"Besides, several rice-growing countries such as India have banned rice exports for fear of domestic shortages, but major buyers such as Indonesia and Iran have not purchased rice, so the market is tightening.
"In addition, biofuels have become more popular worldwide due to the record crude oil price, meaning that more farmers have turned to corn or tapioca for biofuels instead of rice.
"Still, I believe that the rice price will be in the range of a plus or minus of 20 per cent for the rest of this year. Personally, I'm a rather conservative trader in this kind of market as there are few hedging tools.
"Even the AFET [Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand] is not an effective hedge because the trading volume [of contracts] is too small. So, we traders protect ourselves by gathering rice stocks before we sell and by reducing our exposure - or else we could risk bankruptcy," said Chookiat.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
The poor afraid of getting rich!
19/04/2008
(Source: Dan Tri)
VietNamNet Bridge – The poor have to suffer many pains: natural calamities, epidemics, price escalation, etc. when they don’t have money. But when they have money, they are afflicted with even greater pains. This absurdity actually exists.
When a village is turned into a street
Villagers at Van Phuc silk village in Ha Dong city, Ha Tay province are not happy about the news that they will become residents of the capital in the near future.
Thuy Hanh, the owner of a silk shop in Van Phuc village, said her husband was born in Chuong My district, Ha Tay province, so he experienced a merging. In the past Chuong My district’s Thien Phuong and Phung Chau were merged into Hanoi, but after the merging there was no change in these communes, so they were returned to Ha Tay.
But as Ha Tay will be merged into Hanoi, the land prices in Van Phuc are rocketing. Land traders are flocking to Ha Tay and Van Phuc in particular to buy all kinds of land. The local people consider this a chance to change their lives.
“They sell their land but they are not happy,” Hanh commented.
“Farmers can save several million VND a year. Suddenly they have hundreds of millions of VND from selling their fields. They have money but what will they do when they don’t have land?” queried Nguyen Van Du, Vice Chairman of the Van Phuc commune People’s Committee.
Du mentioned the case of Me Tri and Me Dinh as typical examples of local people getting a lot of money from selling land but after that not having jobs and becoming drug addicts and lazy people.
“Van Phuc is a traditional craft village so we are very worried that the locals will target short-term benefit and forget the long term,” Du said.
When villages become streets, farmers may not be able to adapt themselves to urban life if the urbanisation process takes place too quickly. The poor may get rich from selling their fields but this is short-term wealth, which incurs latent risks, Du added.
Van Phuc village has nearly 1,280 households, 90% of them producing and trading silk. The villagers have a traditional profession so they are not poor, but they still worry about urbanisation.
Swapping life for money
All three sons of an old couple in Tho Xuan district in the central province of Thanh Hoa headed to HCM City to earn their living. The couple didn’t know what their sons did but they sent home VND2 million every month. VND2 million is very valuable in the rural area and the couple didn’t need to do anything. They leased out their fields to receive rice.
Suddenly, the three sons came back, bearing serious diseases, the consequences of a long hardworking period. The old couple just cried and wished that their children had not been so thirsty to get rich far from their hometown and been content to do fieldwork at home.
Thuy’s family in Yen Dinh district, Thanh Hoa province, is considered the richest family in his village because they own several brick kilns. He began producing bricks over ten years ago. His children are very keen on getting rich by this job. They spend all their time at kilns inhaling toxic gases discharged from these kilns.
Thuy’s family gets rich from these kilns because for each batch of bricks he can earn several hundred VND, much more than for doing fieldwork, but his children are always sick.
“When we were poor, we always wished to be rich. But now we have some money, we are afraid of being wealthy because its cost is too high!” said Thuy.
Most patients in big hospitals in Hanoi like K, Bach Mai, etc. are farmers. It is difficult for farmers to get rich by farm work because Vietnam’s agriculture is un-concentrated. Each farmer family has 2.5 labourers and owns around 0.7ha of land. The country has around 70 million small rice fields, according to a specialist, Prof. Nguyen Lan Dung.
“Farmers don’t have ‘opportunities’ to make money from doing illegal or legal business. They can only exchange their physical strength for money. They are hardworking, lack knowledge, so sometimes they barter their lives for money,” said historian Duong Trung Quoc.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
The High Cost of a Low Dollar
by Joe Brancatelli
Apr 15 2008
Business travelers are usually unfazed by currency fluctuations. Not this time.
How would you like your analysis of the unprecedented worldwide decline of the U.S. dollar?
Political? President Bush told the Economic Club of New York last month that he “believe[s] in a strong dollar.” But since his 2001 inauguration, the greenback buys 14 percent fewer Japanese yen; 27 percent fewer British pounds; and 45 percent fewer Australian dollars. The dollar buys 43 percent fewer euros than when it launched as a street currency in 2002. So travelers who take Bush’s “strong dollar” overseas have less international buying power than at any time in decades.
Humiliating? The greenback is falling so fast that the government of India, which used to accept dollars as payment for admission to the Taj Mahal, now demands that visitors pay in rupees.
Surrealistic? With the dollar worth just 50 cents against the British pound, everything in London costs twice what it does in New York. A room at the Hilton New York, in Rockefeller Center, costs $259 next Tuesday night, but you’ll pay $518 (£259) at the Waldorf Hilton in London’s West End.
Anecdotal? I had a free Saturday in Rome not too long ago, so I grabbed a copy of the International Herald Tribune ($3.50 for the 16-page weekend edition) and sat at a coffee bar with an espresso ($8 for a two-ounce cup). Then I wandered into a kitchen-goods store. A panini press I’d purchased for $130 back home was selling for 189 euros—or $283.50.
Ironic? The traditionally enfeebled Canadian dollar was worth 62 cents against the U.S. dollar in early 2002. Now the loonie is at parity with the greenback. There’s the psychological blow of the world believing that a U.S. dollar is no more powerful than a Canadian dollar and a financial blow for businesses that purchase north of the border.
When the dollar slumped in years past, business travelers shrugged and moved on. Currency fluctuation is like air: It’s there, and there’s not much you can do about it. Usually, this year’s run on the dollar in England becomes next year’s run on the yen in Japan. Over the course of a couple of years, it all works out, give or take a shekel or a forint.
This time, though, the dollar has fallen so far, so fast, and so universally that business travelers are getting dinged—in both the wallet and the psyche.
“I cancelled a business trip to Stockholm in January. It was just too damned expensive,” says Susan Tomlinson, a frequent-flying financial-services executive whom I’ve known to be physically and financially fearless over the years. “At six krona to the dollar, everything is out of sight. So I did my business by email.”
A dollar was buying more than nine krona a few years ago. Even for business travelers, 50 percent currency shifts don’t go unnoticed.
Leisure travelers can stay home and rediscover America or travel to places where the dollar is still strong, such as Argentina and Turkey. But business travelers are screwed. Unless we’re prepared—and able—to scrap business trips, our options for hedging against high prices overseas are limited and not all that palatable.
We can, of course, trade down overseas, by staying in less-expensive hotels, eating at less-pricey restaurants, and switching from taxis and car services to mass transit. But trading down is risky.
Europe and Asia don’t have America’s diversity of shiny, new, low-cost lodging options. If you’re staying at a five-star grande dame property, you can trade down to a four-star Hilton or Marriott. But below the Hilton/Marriott level, there’s very little lodging stock suitable for business travel. Two- and three-star hotels overseas usually lack basics like in-room workspace, high-speed internet access, and 24-hour service.
The only other practical advice I can offer (as well as eliminating the purchase of a $3.50 newspaper) is to cut back by keeping your currency-transaction fees as low as possible. Credit-card issuers now sock you with a 2 to 5 percent “international service assessment” whenever you make a charge in a foreign currency. If you travel overseas frequently, get yourself a credit card issued by Capital One. Alone among major issuers, it offers fee-free transactions.
Large banks have also begun piling on the surcharges for those using ATM cards overseas. Before you travel, check your bank’s current ATM policy and demand that it waive any overseas fees. If it won’t, open a Capital One money-market account. It not only offers higher-than-normal interest rates, Capital One eschews fees on ATM withdrawals.
One other tip: Never sit down at an Italian coffee bar. You pay for the service—and the table. Standing at the bar generally yields espresso at half the sit-down price. In these weak-dollar times, Americans simply can’t afford to sit.
The Fine Print…
A followup to February’s column on airport clubs: Delta is closing nine Crown Rooms by the end of April, and United Airlines has already shuttered its Red Carpet Club in Sydney. But there is good news: United now offers free WiFi access in 27 Red Carpet Clubs and in five of its international first-class lounges.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
Explore the facts and figures behind the rising price of food across the globe.
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
New listings disappoint on S'pore debuts
April 19, 2008
Four out of five. That's the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) that have debuted below their share offer price in recent weeks amid uncertain Singapore stock market conditions.
China Zaino International joined the club yesterday, closing at 48 cents. That was 20 per cent below its offer price of 60 cents.
The Chinese backpack-maker's public offer had been fully subscribed, but institutional investors signed up for most of the $80 million worth of shares sold to finance its expansion plans.
Another mainland firm China Eratat, which makes sportswear, was the exception out of the past five IPOs, closing 3 per cent higher on its Thursday debut.
"Eratat started from a smaller base, hence it's easier for them to grow," said a broker. However, those modest gains were lost on Friday when the share dropped back down 3 per cent to its original 30-cent offer price.
A trader said that the overall tepid market sentiment weighed on both stocks, as investors were generally reluctant to commit heavily on concerns of disappointing guidance on corporate earnings.
On fundamentals, OCBC Investment Research, which has no rating on stock, said Eratat's focus on higher margin apparel was beneficial, given rising demand.
According to OCBC Investment Research, "the management believes China Eratat's target market views sportswear not only for its sporting functions, but increasingly also as everyday leisure wear".
However, the industry in China is currently dominated by Li Ning and foreign brands.
The preceding three Singapore IPOs that saw disappointing starts were Joyas International, Roxy-Pacific Holdings and Li Heng Chemical Fibre.
Next to test the market could be automation solutions provider Hisaka Holdings. It launched a prospectus on March 20 for a future listing. — Agencies
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
King Of Beasts
Several years ago this woman found a sick, malnourished lion cub in the jungle. She took the cub home and fed him and brought him up until he was too big to keep anymore. Then she made arrangements with a zoo in Colombia to take the lion.
Here's a video of what happened when she went to visit him in the zoo for the first time...
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
今天你要嫁给我- 蔡依琳 陶喆
作詞：陶喆/娃娃
作曲：陶喆
女聲：蔡依林
陶喆：
春暖的花開帶走冬天的感傷 微風吹來浪漫的氣息
每一首情歌忽然充滿意義 我就在此刻突然見到你
Jolin：
春暖的花香帶走冬天的淒寒 微風吹來意外的愛情
鳥兒的高歌拉近我們距離 我就在此刻突然愛上你
合唱：
聽我說 手牽手跟我一起走 創造幸福的生活
昨天你來不及 明天就會可惜 今天嫁給我好嗎
RAP：
Jolin in the house
D.T. in the house
Jolin in the house
D.T. in the house
Jolin in the house
D.T. in the house
Our love in the house
陶喆：
夏日的熱情打動春天的懶散 陽光照耀美滿的家庭
每一首情歌都會勾起回憶 想當年我是怎麼認識你
Jolin：
冬天的憂傷接續秋天的孤單 微風吹來枯了的思念
鳥兒的高歌唱著不要別離 此刻我多麼想要擁抱你
合唱：
聽我說手牽手 跟我一起走 過著安定的生活
昨天你來不及 明天就會可惜 今天你要嫁給我
聽我說手牽手 我們一起走 把你一生交給我
昨天不要回頭 明天要到白首 今天你要嫁給我
RAP：
叮咚 聽著禮堂的鍾聲 我們在上帝和親友面前見證
這對男女現在就要結為夫妻 不要忘了這一切是多麼的神聖
你願意生死苦樂永遠和他在一起
愛惜他 尊重他 安慰他 保護著他
兩人同心建立起美滿的家庭 你願意這樣做嗎? Yes,I do
合唱：
聽我說手牽手 一路到盡頭 把你一生交給我
昨天已是過去 明天更多回憶 今天你要嫁給我
今天你要嫁給我 今天你要嫁給我
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
宇多田ヒカル - Prisoner Of Love
作詞/作曲: Hikaru Utada
平気な顔で嘘をついて
笑って 嫌気がさして
楽ばかりしようとしていた
ないものねだりブルース
皆安らぎを求めている
満ち足りてるのに奪い合う
愛の影を追っている
退屈な毎日が急に輝きだした
あなたが現れたあの日から
孤独でも辛くても平気だと思えた
I’m just a prisoner of love
Just a prisoner of love
病める時も健やかなる時も
嵐の日も晴れの日も共に歩もう
I’m gonna tell you the truth
人知れず辛い道を選ぶ
私を応援してくれる
あなただけを友と呼ぶ
強がりや欲張りが無意味になりました
あなたに愛されたあの日から
自由でもヨユウでも一人じゃ虚しいわ
I’m just a prisoner of love
Just a prisoner of love
Oh もう少しだよ
Don’t you give up
Oh 見捨てない 絶対に
残酷な現実が二人を引き裂けば
より一層強く惹かれ合う
いくらでもいくらでも頑張れる気がした
I’m just a prisoner of love
Just a prisoner of love
ありふれた日常が急に輝きだした
心を奪われたあの日から
孤独でも辛くても平気だと思えた
I’m just a prisoner of love
Just a prisoner of love
Stay with me, stay with me
My baby, say you love me
Stay with me, stay with me
一人にさせない
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2008
I believe - Frankie Laine
I believe for every drop of rain that falls a flower grows
I believe that somewhere in the darkest night a candle glows
And I believe for everyone who goes astray someone will come to show the way
I believe yes I believe
I believe above the storm the smallest prayer will still be heard
I believe that someone in the great somewhere hears every word
Every time I hear a new born baby cry or touch a leaf or see the sky
Then I know why I believe
Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2008
中国耕地面积锐减 接近警戒线
【大纪元4月19日讯】(自由亚洲电台记者林坪报导)中国官方公布的数据显示，目前中国耕地面积已经下降到接近粮食安全的警戒线。
中国国土资源部发布的2007年《国土资源公报》显示，去年中国全国耕地面积为18.26亿亩，净减少61万多亩。2007年中国耕地面积的减少速度比 2006年趋缓，减幅为0.03%, 同比下降0.22个百分点。广东《21世纪经济报导》的消息说，为保证粮食安全，中国国务院曾要求到2020年，中国的耕地面积保持在18亿亩以上，而目前中国的耕地面积已经接近了这个警戒线。对此，加拿大拉瓦尔大学国际商业教授苏展表示：
“其实中国政府这几年也是非常非常惊慌，几年前说一定要死命保住18亿。现在看来，当时真正有没有18亿亩的土地？好像还是有一定的怀疑的，因为中国的这个统计数字还是有一定水分的。但是不管怎么说，大约一年平均来说丢大概1000万亩的土地，我想中国政府承认。为什么会损失土地？我想应该承认有城市化方面的要求，但另一方面，我觉得有很多可以改进的方面，中国政府在这一方面做得是相当不够的。”
中国的《国土资源公报》说， 去年国土资源部对新增建设用地的审批更加严格，全年核减不合理用地1.34万公顷，其中耕地4436.97公顷。苏展认为，中国城镇化、和工业化进程中存在滥用土地的现象，很多非法占用耕地的行为没有受到依法惩处。苏展说
“实际上，现在很多的土地是滥用的，尽管有土地法、防止滥用土地等很多的规章制度，但是很多的土地实际上是滥用了。这里面一方面是属于形象工程，很多城市的政府为了发展 GDP、为了搞形象，滥用了很多的耕地，我想这是无可争议的，这个问题是非常严重的。这也就是为什么中国政府采取一系列措施，但是我觉得中国的问题就是法律的严肃性和权威性一直是相当不够的。你看看这几个数字，中国现在圈起来的地、没有使用的地占城市的大概6% 到7%，这是一个非常非常大的数字。再看看中国这些年来建了多少大的工业园区，还在拚命上高速公路的工程。现在到每一个城市里头去，当地政府感兴趣的是建最大的广场，最高的楼，最宽的马路等等。对于耕地的滥用必然造成农村耕地的减少。”
旅居美国的作家郑义一直关心中国的环境问题。他在谈到中国耕地面积的减少时说：
“耕地面积的减少除了官商勾结的掠夺以外，还有一个问题就是自然环境的恶化，也就是生态的问题。在这个问题上同样也由于政府的不作为，由于破坏环境带来了很大的短期的利益。要真是开放舆论让民众有对于政府监督的权利，那么，这些问题都是可以缓解的。”
法新社的报导说，在中国，伴随耕地面积减少、生产要素的价格上涨，中国今年第一季度的粮食价格上涨了21%，总理温家宝星期三在国务院常务会议中强调了控制物价上涨、抑制通货膨胀的紧迫性。
Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008
US Rice Jumps to Record High on Supply Fears
By Reuters | 23 Apr 2008
U.S. rice futures rose to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday on worries about supply shortages which have triggered political unrest and export restrictions designed to protect dwindling domestic stocks.
Chicago Board of Trade July rough rice futures hit a record high of $24.745 per hundredweight and stood 1.5 percent or 36 cents higher at $24.56 in early European trading.
Prices have risen about 68 percent since the start of 2008.
"Some of the main rice producing countries have imposed export curbs ... and this has combined with low global stocks to drive rice higher," said Kenji Kobayashi, a grains analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management in Tokyo.
"Rice has been hitting successive records. It's neared $25 and I think $30 is now on our horizon," Kobayashi said.
Trade bans have been put in place by India, the world's second largest rice exporter in 2007, and Vietnam, the third biggest, in the hopes of cooling domestic prices of the staple food.
Thailand is the largest exporter.
The export curbs have been criticized by the Asian Development Bank, which said Asian governments were over-reacting to surging food prices by resorting to market-distorting measures.
The bullish mood was reinforced by news that Japan had failed to buy any rice at an import tender held on Tuesday either because prices were too high or there were too few participants, a trade source said.
Exporters also said Thai 5 percent broken grade white rice could rise more than 30 percent to $1,300 per ton by May due to strong demand from the Philippines.
Soybean Advance
CBOT soybean prices also rose with the May contract up 7-3/4 cents at $13.82-1/2 a bushel, boosted by bullish export prospects and jitters about the Argentine labor situation.
"Soybean prices have rebounded following a sharp contraction in March as the U.S. supply situation appears less assured than previously expected," Rabobank commodity analyst Luke Chandler said in a report on Wednesday.
"Higher exports due to the Argentinean stoppages together with strong competition fron corn for available acreage and robust demand conditions have provided soybeans with a more optimistic price scenario in 2008," he added.
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez on Tuesday called for calm as talks with farm leaders grew more tense, raising expectations in financial markets that farmers might go back on strike.
Wheat prices, however, were lower with a favorable crop outlook sparking a significant drop in prices during the last few weeks from record levels reached earlier this year.
China's top wheat growing provinces of Henan and Shandong are likely to have a bumper winter wheat harvest following recent rains, the Xinhua news agency said, quoting local agricultural authorities.
CBOT May soft red winter wheat futures were down 4 cents a bushel at $8.47-3/4 while milling wheat futures in Paris also eased with November off 2.25 euros at 197.00 euros a ton.
CBOT corn prices held steady with May down a marginal 1/4 cent at $5.94 a bushel.
Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008
Golden rice bowl (金飯碗)
Mr Brown:
"I'd love to have a golden rice bowl like this.
You pay top dollar for it but it is infallible. Very reliable."
Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008
http://mrbrown.muxtape.com/
mrbrown.muxtape.com: The Mas Selamat No-Blame Mix
I don't usually update my muxtape so soon, but I thought it might be good to have some appropriate music to listen to this week, as we read about the Mas Selamat escape and who is to blame. Especially since PM himself has just announced:
"PM Lee says ministers shouldn't be automatically removed for lapses down the line" (CNA)
and
"Don't over-react, go overboard over one bad incident: PM Lee" (ST)
Enjoy The Mas Selamat No-Blame Mix from mrbrown.muxtape.com (click on link to listen):
Blame It On The Boogie - The Jacksons
Blame It On The Rain - Milli Vanilli
Blame It On The Sun - Lauryn Hill
No One Is to Blame - Howard Jones
I Don't Blame You - Cat Power
I Shot The Sheriff - Bob Marley & The Wailers
It Wasn't Me - Shaggy
Man in the Mirror - Michael Jackson
Winner at a Losing Game - Rascal Flatts
Should I Stay or Should I Go - The Clash
A Change Would Do You Good - Sheryl Crow
Blame It On The Boogie - Big Fun
Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008
王 冠 一: 糧 食 危 機 禍 害 全 球
2008年04月24日（星期四）
全 球 現 時 面 對 的 通 脹 問 題 ， 主 要 是 由 糧 價 和 油 價 所 牽 動 ， 短 期 內 實 在 難 有 解 決 的 良 方 。
大 家 最 關 心 的 是 糧 油 食 品 價 格 ， 因 為 這 與 我 們 的 日 常 生 活 息 息 相 關 。 由 於 供 應 緊 張 ， 白 米 於 周 二 升 逾 2% ， 而 玉 米 價 格 亦 急 升 。 泰 國 這 個 全 球 最 大 白 米 出 口 國 ， 效 法 中 國 、 越 南 、 印 度 和 埃 及 減 少 白 米 出 口 ， 促 使 米 價 升 不 停 。 作 為 指 標 的 泰 國 100%B 級 白 米 ， 本 周 高 見 每 公 噸 950 美 元 ， 較 年 初 時 的 383 美 元 升 了 一 倍 半 。 泰 國 稻 米 出 口 約 佔 全 球 供 應 量 三 分 一 ， 其 在 稻 米 市 場 的 地 位 較 諸 沙 地 阿 拉 伯 在 石 油 市 場 更 加 顯 赫 ， 一 聲 減 出 口 ， 米 價 又 怎 能 不 升 ？
米 價 急 升 ， 並 非 純 粹 由 天 氣 反 常 令 稻 米 失 收 造 成 ， 其 他 原 因 包 括 新 興 國 家 需 求 增 加 、 油 價 飆 升 ， 以 及 生 物 能 源 的 發 展 ， 扭 曲 了 全 球 生 態 平 衡 。 當 中 油 價 急 升 更 是 始 作 俑 者 ， 因 為 油 價 暴 漲 除 了 令 運 輸 成 本 大 增 外 ， 亦 迫 使 各 國 積 極 發 展 生 物 燃 料 ， 不 少 本 來 用 作 糧 食 的 玉 米 均 被 用 來 製 造 乙 醇 為 基 礎 的 替 代 能 源 ， 令 農 產 品 的 供 求 更 加 失 衡 。
至 於 油 價 近 年 升 勢 失 控 ， 亦 有 不 少 潛 在 因 素 ， 例 如 地 緣 政 治 局 勢 、 油 組 維 護 本 身 利 益 而 不 願 增 產 等 ， 當 然 ， 弱 美 元 更 成 為 油 價 火 上 加 油 的 幫 兇 。
買 農 產 品 基 金 抗 通 脹
糧 食 危 機 的 影 響 面 較 諸 信 貸 危 機 更 加 廣 泛 ， 國 基 會 稱 會 令 到 全 球 經 濟 變 得 不 穩 定 ， 聯 合 國 秘 書 長 潘 基 文 亦 指 糧 食 危 機 將 損 害 全 球 經 濟 增 長 ， 威 脅 政 治 穩 定 。
不 少 國 家 已 因 糧 荒 和 油 荒 而 發 生 暴 動 ， 海 地 的 政 權 更 因 此 而 出 現 更 替 ， 世 銀 更 發 出 警 告 ， 至 少 會 有 33 個 國 家 因 為 高 糧 價 和 高 油 價 而 出 現 動 亂 。
糧 價 續 升 已 是 大 勢 所 趨 ， 各 國 政 府 卻 苦 無 解 決 良 策 ， 未 來 的 日 子 將 會 越 來 越 難 過 。 有 錢 投 資 的 ， 不 妨 買 一 點 農 產 品 基 金 或 商 品 期 貨 去 抵 禦 通 脹 ， 沒 有 錢 的 ， 惟 有 撙 節 其 他 開 支 ， 又 或 者 希 望 政 府 效 法 澳 門 派 錢 打 救 。
*********************************************************************************
曾 淵 滄： 夠 水 平 就 能 夠 建 立 品 牌
2008年04月24日（星期四）
9 名 大 陸 富 豪 考 察 台 灣 ， 成 了 台 灣 媒 體 爭 相 訪 問 炒 作 的 對 象 ， 富 豪 們 每 到 一 地 ， 迎 接 他 們 的 是 數 以 百 計 的 記 者 ， 好 不 容 易 衝 過 記 者 人 牆 才 能 見 到 接 待 的 主 人 。
這 些 富 豪 幾 乎 全 是 地 產 商 ， 傳 媒 的 渲 染 使 到 台 灣 樓 房 業 主 紛 紛 提 高 叫 價 ， 大 幅 上 升 40% 。 當 然 ， 只 是 叫 價 罷 了 ， 至 今 為 止 ， 台 灣 對 非 台 灣 居 民 買 樓 的 政 策 還 是 有 許 多 限 制 ， 不 易 炒 上 。
從 民 生 的 角 度 來 看 ， 我 懷 疑 馬 英 九 會 不 會 輕 易 開 放 外 地 人 到 台 灣 買 住 宅 房 產 ， 炒 高 樓 價 可 能 會 引 來 買 不 起 樓 的 人 的 不 滿 ， 我 相 信 馬 英 九 應 該 更 歡 迎 大 陸 富 豪 到 台 灣 建 酒 店 、 商 場 ， 多 了 酒 店 ， 多 了 商 場 ， 可 以 製 造 就 業 。
數 年 前 ， 聯 想 （ 992 ） 收 購 IBM 個 人 電 腦 的 業 務 ， 部 份 收 購 費 是 以 聯 想 股 票 支 付 ， 前 日 IBM 賣 掉 了 6.7 億 元 的 聯 想 ， 有 人 擔 心 這 代 表 IBM 不 看 好 聯 想 的 前 途 。
但 是 我 認 為 ， IBM 這 麼 做 ， 只 不 過 是 IBM 管 理 層 認 為 ， 更 應 該 集 中 力 量 於 核 心 業 務 ， 而 不 是 股 票 投 資 。
基 本 上 ， 我 認 為 聯 想 收 購 IBM 個 人 電 腦 業 務 是 成 功 的 ， 透 過 收 購 ， 聯 想 收 購 了 IBM 所 有 的 人 才 、 技 術 、 管 理 系 統 ， 這 使 到 聯 想 不 論 從 技 術 上 、 管 理 水 平 上 ， 都 能 夠 一 躍 而 達 到 國 際 先 進 水 平 。
聯 想 與 利 福 是 成 功 例 子
現 在 ， 聯 想 已 經 很 有 信 心 聯 想 的 品 牌 能 與 IBM 平 起 平 坐 ， 因 此 ， 決 定 提 早 放 棄 應 用 IBM 的 品 牌 來 銷 售 個 人 電 腦 ， 全 部 改 用 聯 想 自 己 的 品 牌 。 現 在 ， 聯 想 品 牌 也 因 此 成 功 地 打 入 國 際 市 場 ， 技 術 水 平 、 質 量 都 達 到 國 際 先 進 水 平 。
利 福 （ 1212 ） 入 股 北 人 集 團 ， 相 信 目 的 是 打 進 北 京 與 天 津 市 場 。 與 其 他 在 香 港 上 市 的 零 售 股 比 較 ， 利 福 在 大 陸 的 擴 張 速 度 是 相 對 的 緩 慢 ， 不 像 百 盛 （ 3368 ） 、 國 美 （ 493 ） 等 ， 幾 乎 在 全 國 各 地 急 速 的 發 展 ， 分 行 一 家 家 的 開 ， 但 是 利 福 至 現 在 止 ， 只 在 上 海 經 營 久 光 百 貨 ， 另 有 五 六 個 城 市 的 分 行 仍 在 籌 備 中 ， 未 開 張 。
久 光 的 定 價 是 中 上 檔 次 ， 與 香 港 的 崇 光 差 不 多 ， 中 上 檔 次 的 百 貨 公 司 不 能 開 得 太 濫 ， 地 點 選 擇 也 很 重 要 ， 人 流 一 定 要 多 ， 上 海 久 光 在 兩 條 地 鐵 線 交 接 處 靜 安 寺 站 旁 邊 ， 與 其 他 零 售 股 比 較 ， 利 福 的 PE 是 比 較 低 的 ， 在 熊 市 中 ， PE 是 很 重 要 的 選 股 條 件 。
利 福 在 大 陸 開 百 貨 店 ， 用 自 創 的 品 牌 久 光 ， 不 需 要 用 崇 光 這 個 名 牌 仍 然 成 功 ， 主 要 原 因 是 整 個 管 理 系 統 是 與 香 港 崇 光 一 模 一 樣 ， 也 長 駐 3 位 日 本 籍 經 理 ， 以 保 證 久 光 能 保 持 日 式 百 貨 的 形 象 與 內 涵 。 這 種 做 法 與 聯 想 收 購 IBM 業 務 而 不 用 IBM 品 牌 類 似 ， 水 平 夠 就 能 夠 建 立 品 牌 。
Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008
Bring on the Right Biofuels
By ROGER COHEN
April 24, 2008
Fads come fast and furious in our viral age, and the reactions to them can be equally ferocious. That’s what we’re seeing right now with biofuels, which everyone loved until everyone decided they were the worst thing since the Black Death.
Where fuel distilled from plant matter was once hailed as an answer to everything from global warming to the geo-strategic power shift favoring repressive one-pipeline oil states, its now a “scam” and “part of the problem,” according to Time magazine. Ethanol has turned awful.
The supposed crimes of biofuels are manifold. They’re behind soaring global commodity prices, the destruction of the Amazon rain forest, increased rather than diminished greenhouse gases, food riots in Haiti, Indonesian deforestation and, no doubt, your mother-in-law’s toothache.
Most of this, to borrow a farm image, is hogwash and bilge.
I’ll grant that the fashion for biofuels led to excess, and that some farm-to-fuel-plant conversion, particularly in subsidized U.S. and European markets, makes no economic or environmental sense. But biofuels remain very much part of the solution. It just depends which biofuels.
Before I get to that, some myths need dispelling. If Asian rice prices are soaring, along with the global prices of wheat and maize, it’s not principally because John Doe in Iowa or Jean Dupont in Picardy has decided to turn yummy corn and beet into un-yummy ethanol feedstock.
Much larger trends are at work. They dwarf the still tiny biofuel industry (roughly a $40 billion annual business, or the equivalent of Exxon Mobil’s $40.6 billion profits in 2007). I refer to the rise of more than one-third of humanity in China and India, the disintegrating dollar and soaring oil prices.
Hundreds of millions of people have moved from poverty into the global economy over the past decade in Asia. They’re eating twice a day, instead of once, and propelling rapid urbanization. Their demand for food staples and once unthinkable luxuries like meat is pushing up prices.
At the same time, the rising price of commodities over the past year has largely tracked the declining parity of the beleaguered dollar. Rice prices have shot up in dollar terms, far less against the euro. Countries like China are offloading depreciating dollar reserves to hoard stores of value like commodities.
Food price increases are also tied to oil being nearly $120 a barrel. Fossil fuels are an important input in everything from fertilizer to diesel for tractors.
Another myth that needs nuking is that the Amazon rain forest is being destroyed to make way for Brazilian sugar-cane ethanol. Almost all viable cane-growing areas lie hundreds of miles from the rain forest. Brazil has enough savannah to multiply its 3.5 million hectares of cane-for-ethanol production by ten without going near the Amazon ecosystem.
Brazilian rain forest is burning, as it long has, for a complex mix of economic reasons. Brazil’s successful ethanol industry ・80 percent of new cars run on ethanol or gasoline and all gasoline comprises 25 percent biofuel ・is not one of them.
The danger in all this anti-biofuel hysteria is that we’ll throw out the baby with the bath water.
Those hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indians now eating more will be driving cars within the next quarter-century. What that will do to oil prices is anybody’s guess, but what’s clear is that ethanol presents the only technically and economically viable alternative for large-scale substitution of petroleum fuels for transport in the next 15 to 20 years. It’s not a panacea, but it’s a necessary bridge to the next technological breakthrough.
The question is: which ethanol?
Right now, the biofuel market is being grossly distorted by subsidies and trade barriers in the United States and the European Union. These make it rewarding to produce ethanol from corn or grains that are far less productive than sugarcane ethanol, divert land from food production (unlike sugarcane), and have dubious environmental credentials.
What sense does it make to have a surplus of environmentally friendly Brazilian sugar-based ethanol with a yield eight times higher than U.S. corn ethanol and zero impact on food prices being kept from an American market by a tariff of 54 cents on a gallon while Iowan corn ethanol gets a subsidy?
“It would make a lot more sense to drop the tariff, drop the subsidy, and allow Brazilian ethanol into the United States,” said Philippe Reichstul, the chief executive of a biofuel company in São Paulo. “Pressure on U.S. land will be slashed.”
The United States and Europe should maintain their biofuel targets. Pressure to scrap a European plan for renewable fuels to supply a tenth of all vehicle fuel by 2020 must be resisted while rethinking the policies that favor the wrong biofuels.
The real scam lies in developed world protectionism and skewed subsidies, not the biofuel idea.
Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008
The end of cheap clothes is near
By Jorn Madslien
Wednesday, 23 April 2008
Food prices have shot up in response to a surge in crop prices. Now consumers should get ready for clothes prices to follow suit.
Garment makers are seeing demand shrink as consumers in the US and Europe are cutting back on spending.
US cotton consumption is set to fall 6.5% from last year to less than a million tonnes whilst EU consumption is expected to fall 11% to about 460,000 tonnes, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts.
At the same time, they are hit by more expensive raw materials and by soaring oil prices, which make their factories more expensive to operate and which pushes up the cost of shipping to foreign markets.
In India, the weaving industry is in crisis. In China, the textile sector is squeezed.
And, yet again, the root cause of their problems can be found in America.
US markets
In the US, ever more cotton farmers are switching to more lucrative crops - soybeans, corn, and wheat - whose market prices are rising even faster.
The prices of these crops have been pushed higher by a mixture of subsidies, growing demand from biofuel producers and market speculation.
"Cotton is taking its cue from whatever the other [commodity] markets are doing," according to a US commodities broker.
"They set the tone for a lot of the things taking place in this market."
Costly cotton
As a result of the shift by farmers, "the cotton harvested area in the USA is projected to decline by a further 15%" in the year ahead, predicts the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
That would bring the cotton acreage in the US to 9.5 million acres, down from 10.8 million in 2007 and from whopping 15 million acres in 2006.
"It is obvious that [cotton] prices will be higher," ICAC says.
This year, global cotton prices are set to rise more than 8% to 80 cents per pound, ICAC predicts.
Financial market professionals think the rise could be even steeper.
May cotton futures currently trades at about 71 cents per pound on the Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE. The December futures trade at about 83 cents per pound.
"I don't think we've had markets this wild since 1995, and we're in an environment where it could be with us for several years," says Mike Stevens from finance house Swiss Financial Services in an interview with Penton Insight.
Demand outstrips supply
Cotton shortages first emerged last year, when global demand for cotton exceeded global supply by about a million tonnes.
In spite of the US shift towards competing crops, this year, the global cotton harvest is set to grow 3%, as major producer regions such as China, India, Australia, Brazil and West Africa are raising production.
Globally, supply growth is thus outstripping demand growth; cotton mill use is set to grow by just 1% this year.
But even so, supply is not growing fast enough.
This year's production level is expected to peak at 26.9 million tonnes of cotton, compared with demand for 27.5 million tonnes, the ICAC predicts.
Expensive clothes
But costly cotton is only one factor hitting clothing manufacturers.
"It all comes down to energy," explains Bradley George, head of commodities and resources at Investec Asset Management. "We are basically short of power in the world right now."
Hence, it is not only a question of whether land should be used to grow crops for food or cotton. It is also a question of how much energy should be used to produce clothes in factories.
Fertiliser costs are also soaring, adding to raw material costs, and the credit crunch is adding to the squeeze as low-margin clothes manufacturers are finding it harder to raise finance.
The wages paid to factory workers have risen too, especially in China.
Manufacturers in India and China, as well as in many other parts of South East Asia and Central Asia are already feeling the pain.
In the end, they will either have to raise prices for the clothes they make, or go under - which in turn will reduce supply. For consumers in Europe and the US the outcome is certain: prepare to pay more for clothes in the years to come.
Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008
Gold hovers near 3-week low, firm dollar weighs
By Daniel Magnowski
LONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - Gold stayed near a three-week low on Thursday after the dollar bounced against the euro, prompting investors to liquidate some holdings in the precious metal.
Spot bullion was quoted at $901.50/902.20 per ounce at 1031 GMT, down from $905.50/906.70 an ounce late in New York on Wednesday, when it hit an intraday trough of $897.10, its lowest since April 3.
While the long-term outlook for gold remained bullish given record high oil prices and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the United States, attempts to revisit a lifetime high of $1,030.80 hit on March 17 have been met by profit taking.
"This morning gold is taking its cue from the Ifo via the dollar move, and this afternoon it will be looking at U.S. durable goods and new home sales," Barclays Capital analyst Suki Cooper said.
The euro slid further from this week's record high against the dollar after Germany's Ifo corporate sentiment index eased, denting confidence in the euro zone.
The euro fell to $1.5747, having reached an all-time high above $1.60 earlier this week. The dollar rose to 103.65 yen but stayed below a two-month high of 104.66 hit last week.
Data that boosts the dollar is generally bad news for gold.
"U.S. durable goods might disappoint consensus expectations,
which would be supportive for gold," Dresdner Kleinwort said in
a report.
Durable goods data for March was due at 1230 GMT, with home sales to follow at 1400.
The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is due on April 29-30 and investors believe it will cut its benchmark overnight rate by a further quarter percentage point, to 2 percent. Lower rates boost gold's appeal as an alternative investment.
Driven largely by investor buying, gold has gained 8 percent since the start of the year.
In the physical market, jewellers took advantage of the drop in prices to stock up, with main consumer India abuzz with activity during the wedding season and ahead of a religious festival.
The technical outlook for gold indicated it may fall further, analysts said.
"By breaking $$898/97 the correction will carry on to
$891/889 and $882 or even $877," chartists at Societe Generale said in a report.
Spot platinum fell to $1,989/1,999 per ounce from $1,991.50/2,001.50 late in New York.
The market came under pressure after Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd said it has developed a new catalyst for diesel engine cars that replaces platinum with much-cheaper silver.
Silver edged down to $17.05/17.10 an ounce from $17.14/17.20 an ounce. Spot palladium was barely changed at $442/448 per ounce from $441.50/447.50 in New York.
Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008
英央行理事：英镑不大可能迅速摆脱弱势
2008年04月24日
英央行理事森泰斯23日表示，英镑的疲软势头不可能很快扭转，不能排除英镑进一步走软的可能性。
综合外电4月23日报道，英国央行(Bank of England)货币政策委员会(Monetary Policy Committee)委员森泰斯(Andrew Sentance)23日表示，英镑未来的前景很不明朗，短期内不太可能收复近期失地。
森泰斯表示，消费支出预计将放缓，由于英国经济将面临调整，消费支出疲软的情况可能还会持续一段时间。他认为，现在还无法保证这段调整期能很平稳地度过。
他表示，虽然那些与房地产、金融服务密切相关的行业以及高度依赖英国消费者的行业很可能是需求疲软的最大受害者，但是未来两三年其他许多行业的境况也不会太好。
根据一份事先获得的材料，森泰斯在英国工业联合会(Confederation of British Industry)发表演讲时称，英镑的前景仍然存在很大不确定性，但似乎没有很明显证据显示英镑近期的跌势能很快彻底扭转。
他表示，信贷市场吃紧的状况很可能还会持续一段时间，英国经济的结构调整也需假以时日才能显露效果，这预示英镑的下跌势头还将持续。
森泰斯还指出，有迹象显示英国的住房市场正明显走弱。
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
US new home sales drop 8.5% in March
April 24, 2008
WASHINGTON - Sales of new US homes fell 8.5 per cent in March from the prior month, as prices tumbled in response to a glut of unsold homes, Commerce Department figures showed on Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted annual pace of 526,000 units for the month was well below analysts' consensus forecast was for a rate of 580,000.
The March sales pace was the weakest since 1991 and 36.6 per cent below the March 2007 estimate of 830,000. The department also revised downward the February rate to 575,000, from a prior estimate of 590,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2008 was down 13.3 per cent year-over-year at US$227,600. The average sales price was US$292,200.
The glut of new houses for sale at the end of March was estimated at 468,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. That represents an 11-month supply at the current sales rate, the department said. -- AFP
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Britain hit by biggest wave of strikes in decade
April 24, 2008
LONDON - Britain was hit on Thursday by what trade unions have called the biggest wave of work stoppages since the Labour government came to power 10 years ago, with up to 400,000 public sector employees going on strike.
It was yet another blow to Prime Minister Gordon Brown just one day after he was forced by party rebels into a humiliating policy reverse over tax cuts. On May 1, he faces his first major test at the ballot box with local elections.
Refinery workers at the Grangemouth oil refinery in Scotland are also set to strike in a dispute over pensions that could cause major fuel distribution problems.
More than 200,000 teachers as well as thousands of college lecturers are staging their first national strike in 20 years in a bitter pay dispute with the government. Up to one third of schools in England and Wales are set to be disrupted.
'After three years of below-inflation pay increases, the prospect for a further three years of the same is the last straw,' said teachers' union leader Christine Blower.
Mr Brown, whose popularity has plummeted in a string of crises and is battling to keep the economy on course amid global turmoil, said of the teachers' strike: 'It is regrettable for pupils, it is regrettable for parents.
'This a government that over 10 years has doubled expenditure on education,' he told Sky News.
But unions are in militant mood, determined to take on a government trying to keep a lid on public sector spending.
Millions of workers paid by the government have expressed disappointment and frustration over their latest pay deals as the cost of living has risen.
On Thursday, the teachers were joined in a coordinated wave of strikes by civil servants - ranging from coastguards to driving test examiners.
More than 100,000 workers from 10 government departments are angry over pay rises capped below inflation, their union said.
Their union leader, Mark Serwotka, said ministers only had themselves to blame.
'Civil servants have faced an unprecedented attack from the government in the last five years - 100,000 job losses, more privatisation of services than we have ever seen before, attacks on our pensions,' he said.
Widespread labour unrest is the latest blow to Mr Brown.
Faced with the prospect of rebellion by its own lawmakers, the government said on Wednesday said it would look at ways of helping those worst affected by the abolition of the lowest income tax band.
Frank Field, the leader of the Labour rebels, withdrew a amendment which had raised the prospect of a humiliating defeat for Mr Brown in a parliamentary vote next week. 'The government has listened,' Mr Field said. -- REUTERS
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Tycoon's wife acquitted of slapping charge
Thu, Apr 24, 2008
The Straits Times
THE wife of a Singapore tycoon accused of slapping a Singapore Airlines stewardess was acquitted by a court on Thursday after the prosecution withdrew the case against her.
Tan Siew Hoon, 61, was given an acquittal amounting to a discharge when the prosecution dropped her charge for slapping 25-year-old stewardess Then Jiamin on board an SIA flight to Tokyo on Sept 20 last year.
She and her husband, Venture Corp chief executive officer Wong Ngit Leong, 65, were in the business-class cabin at the time.
But Tan was given a 'stern warning' by the police.
At her previous appearance in court on April 3, Tan's lawyer, Mr Ravinderpal Singh, told the court that his client was trying to settle the case out of court but the attempts had been turned down by the prosecution. He said he would be making further representations to have the charge withdraw.
After her acquittal, Tan walked out of the courtroom with her husband and refused to respond to questions from reporters.
Tan recently settled a civil claim, for unspecified damages for 'emotional and mental distress', filed by the stewardess.
The stewardess had sought damages for 'emotional and mental distress' as a result of the 'wrongful assault and battery' as well as for defamation.
She had claimed that they were about 80 minutes from Tokyo's Narita airport and she was serving Mr Wong when Tan became upset and slapped her.
She also claimed that after the alleged assault, Tan asked her loudly: 'Why are you talking to my husband?'
The terms of their settlement were confidential.
Tan's husband is one of Singapore's richest men. His company Venture Corp is Singapore's second largest contract manufacturer which makes computer and printer parts for some of the world's top tech firms.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Credit Suisse Swings to a Loss
24 April 2008
Credit Suisse swung to a net loss of $2.1 billion in the first quarter, as it wrote down $5.2 billion tied to leveraged finance products.
The Zurich-based bank reported a net loss of 2.15 billion Swiss francs, vs. last year's profit of 2.7 billion in Swiss francs. Net revenues of 3 billion Swiss francs plunged 72% from the first quarter last year, as net writedowns in leveraged finance products totaled 5.3 billion Swiss francs. The writedown dwarfs the 3.2 billion Swiss franc writedown the bank recorded for all of 2007.
"Other than the areas affected directly by the credit crisis, most of our businesses performed well, with revenues near, or in some cases above, those in the first quarter of 2007," CEO Brady Dougan said in a company statement.
Shares were advancing 2.6% to $52.94 in recent trading.
However, when compared to the previous year's quarter, private banking dropped 8% and wealth management declined 13%, with only corporate and retail banking showing an increase of 3%. Compensation also decreased, with operating expenses declining 38% as compared to the first quarter.
The bank scrambled to reduce its exposure to the mortgage crisis by dumping product at presumably fire sale prices. Exposure was down 41% from the end of the fourth quarter in 2007.
Asset management bailed out some money market funds by purchasing securities. The fair value of those securities decreased 1.7 billion Swiss francs from the end of 2007. Net revenues for this area plunged 92% as compared to last year. And while wealth management claimed net new assets in the first quarter, the group's total assets under management decreased 11% due to adverse foreign exchange and market movements.
Credit Suisse's results did not appear so bad in comparison to Swiss rival UBS, which already fell on its sword with writedowns of $37.4 billion tied to subprime mortgages. Germany's Deutsche Bank also recently warned that it may record $3.98 billion in markdowns for buyout loans and mortgage securities.
U.S. rivals Citigroup and Merrill Lynch also reported losses last week and Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase posted dips in profits caused by writedowns.
Credit Suisse said it did not believe it would have to raise capital, like Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain's second-largest bank, was forced to do. RBS said it was raising 12 billion pounds, or $23.9 billion to cover writedowns.
Separately, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its AA-/A-1+ counterparty credit ratings on Credit Suisse after Thursday's announcement, but kept its outlook on all Credit Suisse entities negative.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Venture Corp profit slumps 20.3% in Q1
$20.7m charge from CDO investments cited for lower profit of $56.3m
By WINSTON CHAI
April 24, 2008
MAJOR losses from collateralised debt obligation (CDO) investments continue to dent Venture Corporation's profits, pulling its net income down by 20.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
Net profit attributable to equity-holders for the three months ended March 31 fell to $56.3 million from $70.7 million a year earlier. The plunge was attributed largely to a mark-to-market charge of $20.7 million from Venture's CDO investments that were hit by the US credit crunch.
'This (fair-value) adjustment is quite significant. Without this, the results would have been quite favourable,' Venture chairman and chief executive Wong Ngit Liong said at its results briefing yesterday.
'It's unfortunate that many years ago our previous CFO went into this (CDO investment). It's something we shouldn't have gone into but we will deal with it and manage it,' he said.
Venture's first-quarter revenue dipped 3.1 per cent to $939.1 million compared with the previous corresponding period, while Q1 earnings per share dropped to 20.5 cents from 25.9 cents a year earlier.
Although the company's revenue is fully pegged to the declining greenback, Mr Wong said Venture has not suffered major losses because it has been 'managing its foreign exchange well'. For Q1 2008, it had a foreign currency exchange adjustment gain of $4.1 million, lower than the previous Q1's $6 million.
'We are quite prepared for any further decline in the US dollar of up to 5 per cent. We have all the mechanisms to ensure that we can come out favourably,' Mr Wong said.
And while the US is on the fringe of a bear market, Mr Wong maintains that there has been no 'adverse impact' on Venture's business so far. 'Most of the impact has been felt in the consumer area. We do very little business in the consumer space,' he explained.
Venture makes printers for Hewlett-Packard, as well as testing equipment for Agilent Technologies and point-of-sale solutions for companies like NCR Corp.
In Q1, sales from the company's printing and imaging business suffered a 19.7 per cent drop due to product delays. However, this segment continues to be the main income driver, accounting for 25.6 per cent of the quarter's turnover.
Computer peripherals and data storage products contributed 20.2 per cent, while retail solutions and industrial offerings took up 19.5 per cent. Networking and communications accounted for 18.3 per cent of sales and the remainder was made up of products like test and measurement tools, as well as medical devices.
Venture said it is 'cautiously optimistic' about its prospects, adding that signs from customers point to a favourable outlook for the rest of 2008.
'There are signs that volume is coming. We have seen signs that things are recovering towards the end of the first quarter,' Mr Wong said.
Venture shares closed 1.8 per cent down at $11.72 yesterday.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Kim Eng downgrades Venture to hold
Thursday, 24 April 2008
Kim Eng Research on Thursday downgraded Venture to a hold as the stock has reached fair valuation.
'At the current price however, Venture is valued at 11x FY08F EPS, inline with the average of its peers in Taiwan and the US,' the research house said.
It added that with the US dollar weakness an on-going concern and the possible slowdown of corporate demand, it downgraded the stock to a 'hold' with a fair value of $12.80, based on 12x earnings, a slight premium to the sector.
Kim Eng recommended investors to 'take advantage of strength in the stock to reduce positions'.
The shares were trading down 34 cents, at $11.38 each on Thursday afternoon.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
王冠一 ： 橫 手 救 市 危 機 未 消
2008年04月25日（星期五）
根 據 英 國 《 金 融 時 報 》 報 道 ， 以 聯 儲 局 為 首 的 多 國 央 行 的 救 市 行 動 初 見 成 效 ， 市 場 對 大 銀 行 可 能 掀 起 倒 閉 潮 的 疑 慮 正 開 始 消 弭 。
銀 行 業 界 的 撇 賬 潮 仍 未 告 一 段 落 ， 最 新 公 佈 業 績 的 瑞 士 第 二 大 銀 行 瑞 信 ， 首 季 虧 損 21.5 億 瑞 郎 （ 約 21 億 美 元 ） ， 較 預 期 蝕 5.94 億 瑞 郎 多 出 逾 兩 倍 ， 亦 是 該 行 五 年 來 首 見 紅 ， 主 要 是 要 為 信 貸 減 值 53 億 瑞 郎 ， 而 全 球 主 要 金 融 機 構 所 作 出 的 撥 備 ， 至 今 已 超 過 2900 億 美 元 。
不 過 ， 銀 行 不 斷 集 資 提 升 資 本 ， 似 乎 漸 見 成 效 。 反 映 擔 保 銀 行 壞 賬 成 本 的 信 貸 違 約 掉 期 （ Credit default swap ） 近 日 大 幅 下 降 ， 例 如 擔 保 歐 洲 25 家 大 銀 行 高 級 債 務 的 成 本 ， 於 過 去 五 周 便 由 160 點 子 急 降 至 61.5 點 子 ， 亦 即 是 每 1000 萬 歐 元 債 務 壞 賬 的 五 年 保 費 節 省 了 9.85 萬 歐 元 。 美 資 銀 行 如 摩 通 、 花 旗 及 美 林 在 這 方 面 的 成 本 亦 分 別 減 少 了 58% 、 59% 和 51% 。
各 類 貸 款 問 題 漸 露
投 資 者 對 銀 行 的 信 心 回 復 ， 更 大 的 誘 因 來 自 央 行 使 橫 手 救 亡 的 動 作 。 為 了 解 決 銀 行 資 金 緊 絀 的 問 題 ， 央 行 不 斷 向 銀 行 體 系 注 資 ， 所 推 措 施 更 不 乏 離 經 叛 道 的 做 法 ， 例 如 聯 儲 局 打 破 貼 現 窗 歷 來 只 供 商 業 銀 行 使 用 的 傳 統 ， 容 許 投 資 銀 行 透 過 此 途 徑 融 資 ； 放 寬 貼 現 窗 抵 押 品 的 要 求 ， 准 許 銀 行 用 「 泥 碼 」 （ AAA 級 別 企 債 ） 換 「 籌 碼 」 （ 國 庫 券 ） ； 甚 至 斥 290 億 美 元 設 公 司 為 摩 通 收 購 貝 爾 斯 登 抬 轎 ， 投 資 者 對 政 府 的 取 態 ， 怎 會 不 心 中 有 數 ？
市 場 對 銀 行 的 信 心 已 不 像 英 國 Northern Rock 出 現 擠 提 時 般 虛 怯 ， 但 信 心 危 機 最 惡 劣 時 期 過 去 ， 並 不 表 示 銀 行 業 已 雨 過 天 晴 ， 筆 者 指 信 貸 危 機 會 橫 向 蔓 延 ， 由 樓 按 擴 散 至 信 用 卡 、 車 貸 、 學 生 貸 款 和 商 廈 貸 款 ， 種 種 軌 正 陸 續 浮 現 ， 又 豈 是 信 口 開 河 ！
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曾 淵 滄： 香 港 股 民 消 息 特 別 靈 通 ？
2008年04月25日（星期五）
還 是 香 港 的 投 資 者 比 內 地 的 投 資 者 更 有 能 力 猜 中 中 央 政 策 ， 過 去 一 個 多 星 期 ， A50 中 國 基 金 （ 2823 ） 在 香 港 熱 炒 ， 天 天 是 成 交 額 最 高 的 前 三 名 之 一 。 儘 管 內 地 股 市 一 跌 再 跌 ， A50 中 國 基 金 價 格 不 但 不 跌 ， 還 不 斷 地 上 升 。
香 港 股 民 為 甚 麼 搶 著 買 專 門 投 資 內 地 A 股 的 A50 中 國 基 金 ？ 因 為 香 港 股 民 更 有 把 握 地 估 計 到 中 央 一 定 會 出 手 救 市 ， 而 且 很 快 就 會 出 手 。 或 者 說 ， 香 港 股 民 的 消 息 比 內 地 股 民 更 靈 通 ， 搭 通 天 地 線 ， 收 到 中 央 的 政 策 討 論 內 容 ？
前 日 傍 晚 ， 中 央 終 於 出 手 救 市 ， 昨 日 開 始 ， 股 票 交 易 印 花 稅 由 0.3% 減 至 0.1% ， 終 於 導 致 昨 日 內 地 股 市 狂 漲 。 上 海 綜 合 指 數 上 升 9% 至 3583 點 ， 天 一 下 子 亮 了 ， 上 個 星 期 五 的 狂 跌 成 了 終 極 一 跌 ， 創 7 年 來 最 大 的 單 日 升 幅 ， 內 地 有 升 停 板 的 機 制 ， 不 可 能 一 天 升 得 太 多 ， 香 港 則 沒 有 ， 理 論 上 A50 中 國 基 金 的 升 幅 該 是 沒 有 限 制 的 ， 但 是 ， 昨 日 A50 中 國 基 金 僅 上 升 7.3% ， 不 但 低 過 上 海 綜 合 指 數 的 升 幅 ， 也 低 過 國 壽 （ 2628 ） 及 平 安 保 險 （ 2318 ） 的 升 幅 。
國 壽 與 平 保 持 有 大 量 A 股 ， A 股 升 值 ， 國 壽 與 平 保 也 升 值 。 過 去 一 個 多 星 期 ， 大 量 投 資 者 買 入 A50 中 國 基 金 ， 等 的 就 是 中 央 救 市 這 一 日 ， 現 在 好 消 息 出 了 ， 這 些 人 可 能 會 趁 好 消 息 套 利 求 售 ， 壓 抑 A50 中 國 基 金 股 價 的 上 升 。 更 何 況 過 去 一 個 多 星 期 ， 內 地 A 股 股 價 跌 而 A50 中 國 基 金 價 格 上 升 ， 兩 者 背 道 而 馳 的 結 果 是 A50 中 國 基 金 出 現 溢 價 ， 這 表 示 你 以 比 實 際 價 值 更 多 的 價 格 買 內 地 A 股 。 因 此 ， 追 捧 A50 中 國 基 金 不 如 買 內 地 壽 險 股 ， 所 有 的 壽 險 公 司 都 持 有 大 量 股 票 。
追 A50 不 如 買 保 險 股
昨 日 恒 指 借 內 地 股 市 狂 升 的 力 量 而 升 ， 主 要 上 升 股 為 H 股 ， 恒 指 成 份 股 中 香 港 本 土 的 股 價 反 而 下 跌 的 多 ， 上 升 的 少 。 昨 日 恒 指 雖 然 上 升 391 點 ， 但 是 下 跌 股 竟 然 有 13 隻 之 多 ， 其 中 12 隻 是 本 地 股 。 昨 日 恒 指 收 市 為 25680 ， 最 高 達 25861 ， 已 經 很 接 近 我 之 前 預 測 的 熊 市 二 期 反 彈 高 位 的 26000 點 至 28000 點 的 底 部 ， 相 信 保 守 的 投 資 者 已 開 始 套 利 ， 這 一 輪 反 彈 ， 由 3 月 18 日 開 始 ， 短 短 一 個 月 ， 恒 指 上 升 5000 多 點 ， 保 守 者 已 經 很 滿 足 了 。
我 運 氣 真 好 ， 星 期 一 至 星 期 三 ， 我 在 台 北 、 台 中 、 高 雄 向 富 邦 （ 636 ） 的 客 戶 推 薦 香 港 股 市 ， 最 努 力 推 介 的 就 是 A50 中 國 基 金 ， 理 由 就 是 我 也 相 信 中 央 很 快 要 救 市 了 。 上 海 綜 合 指 數 上 星 期 跌 至 3000 點 ， 跌 足 了 50% ， 太 可 怕 了 ， 再 跌 下 去 ， 許 多 人 會 失 去 消 費 的 心 情 ， 影 響 很 大 。 前 晚 我 離 開 高 雄 回 香 港 的 同 一 晚 ， 就 聽 到 中 央 救 市 的 新 聞 。
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Foreclosures quadruple in state, Bay Area
James Temple
April 23, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO -- Tens of thousands of Californians lost their homes during the first three months of the year as foreclosures soared more than 300 percent across the Bay Area and the state. Many experts expect those numbers to climb higher this year and beyond.
"The problem isn't going away anytime soon," said Andrew LePage, an analyst with DataQuick Information Systems. "We're still looking for some sign of a peak in foreclosure activity."
Lenders took back 6,579 homes in the nine-county Bay Area during the first quarter, up from 1,493 a year ago and 4,573 in the fourth quarter, according to a report released by DataQuick on Tuesday. Throughout California, 47,171 homes were foreclosed on, up from 11,032 a year ago. The regional and state figures are now at their highest level in more than 15 years.
It's just the newest benchmark in a housing crisis that has set one after another. The national real estate downturn reached critical levels last summer as resetting subprime loans and falling home values precipitated growing numbers of defaults and eventually an international liquidity crisis. The big jump in foreclosures will place additional pressure on home prices, which could lead to further foreclosures, economists say.
Each case can have a devastating impact on a family or individual.
Raul Gonzalez and his wife, Margarita Narvaez, were thrilled after buying a San Jose home two years ago. The feeling faded quickly.
Gonzalez, who immigrated from Mexico in 2000, said he unwittingly used a negative-amortization loan, in which the monthly payment covered only a portion of the interest. The balance grew each month, and after the teaser rate expired, the monthly payment rose well beyond what the 33-year-old painter could afford.
The main lender foreclosed on the three-bedroom home in late January and the family traded their keys for cash, moving into an apartment later that month.
Suit alleges fraud
The couple filed a lawsuit against the mortgage broker, Realtor and one of the lenders, asserting they were defrauded, among other claims. But the strain of the situation led to health problems, Gonzalez said, and the hit to his credit rating means they have little hope of buying another home anytime soon.
"The reality is, I can't do anything," Gonzalez said in Spanish through a translator, his attorney. "Perhaps it's better to leave these problems and only rent, because I have to take care of myself."
Declining home values and resetting adjustable rate mortgages are combining to drive up the rate of foreclosures, said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange. Many borrowers agreed to loans with initial teaser rates because they believed they could refinance when their payments increased, he said. Instead, declining home values erased the equity necessary to do so.
The median price for resale homes in the Bay Area slid 20.4 percent year over year to $549,000 in March, with sales off 40.6 percent, DataQuick reported last week.
Contra Costa has most
Areas hardest hit by foreclosures experienced the biggest price declines. Contra Costa County recorded the highest number of foreclosures in the first quarter, 2,228. Bank-seized homes represented nearly half of all sales in March and prices dropped by about a third to $409,000.
The largest increases were in Sonoma County, a 472.3 percent jump to 538, and Santa Clara County, a 471.6 percent increase to 926. Marin County saw the least number of foreclosures, 76, followed by Napa with 112 and San Francisco at 124.
Neighborhoods defined by ZIP codes in Antioch, Richmond, Vallejo, Oakley and Suisun City continued to experience some of the highest levels of foreclosures. But some neighborhoods that previously had few, including San Francisco's Hunters Point and several in Santa Rosa and San Jose, saw an escalation in foreclosure rates.
There's little reason to believe the worst is past, Adibi said.
Surveys by financial services company Credit Suisse and others show the number of resetting adjustable rate mortgages will rise this spring and summer. That will bump up payments for many borrowers and may lead to missed payments and default notices in the months ahead.
Threat of recession
Also, many economists believe the nation has already fallen into a recession, which could lead to job losses that would further undercut owners' ability to pay their mortgages.
"There's going to be added pressure," Adibi said.
In another indication that foreclosures are likely to climb, mortgage defaults jumped nearly 150 percent in the region and state from January to March. Lending institutions sent Bay Area homeowners 16,398 default notices, up from 6,730 a year ago and 12,704 in the preceding quarter, DataQuick said. These notices are considered the first step in the foreclosure process.
Statewide, lenders issued 113,676 default notices, up from 46,760 a year ago and 81,550 in the fourth quarter.
The soaring foreclosure and default rates come in spite of calls by banking regulators and government officials for lenders to modify the loans of distressed borrowers, a request many lenders claim they've heeded.
Modifications in dispute
But several surveys by the California Reinvestment Coalition have found these so-called workouts are the exception, foreclosures the rule. Loan servicers often don't return calls from borrowers, renege on promised changes just before foreclosing or offer modifications that leave owners with higher monthly payments, said Kevin Stein, associate director of the San Francisco consumer advocacy organization.
"Things are getting worse," he said.
Dustin Hobbs, spokesman for the California Mortgage Bankers Association, a Sacramento trade group for home lenders, disputed the characterization. He said the Hope Now Alliance, a coalition of lenders, has worked out more than a million loans since last summer.
"This industry is making, has made and is continuing to make an unprecedented effort to reach out to distressed buyers," he said.
In a prepared statement, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said Congress must do more to help borrowers.
"We need to clean up the industry to protect future home buyers, and to help ensure this never happens again," she said. "We must take action to restore confidence in the American Dream of home ownership."
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Wal-Mart Rations Rice, Warns of 'Supply and Demand' Concerns
Ken Sweet
Apr. 24 2008
Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, said Wednesday that it would ration the amount of rice each customer can purchase at its Sam's Club warehouse stores because of recent “supply and demand trends.”
“We are limiting the sale of Jasmine, Basmati and Long Grain White Rices to four bags per member visit,” the company said in a statement. “This is effective immediately in all of our U.S. clubs, where quantity restrictions are allowed by law.”
Wal-Mart is the second-major grocer to limit the purchasing of a commodity because of the recent run-up in prices. The company said it is not limiting the purchase of other basic food products like flour or oil.
The price of rice, which is the primary foodstuff for the majority of the human population around the world, rose to $894 a metric ton according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. That’s compared to the $327.25 a ton average price in the same month last year.
In Chicago, the price of export-quality rice rose to $24.745 per 100 pounds on Tuesday.
The run up in price in rice is primarily related to poor harvests and countries curbing exports. Thailand, Asia’s largest exporter of rice, said it may curb exports.
The World Food Program called the recent run up in prices of rice and other basic commodities a “silent famine.”
Wal-Mart did not say when the rationing would end, but it was “working with our suppliers to address this matter to ensure we are in stock, and we are asking for our members' cooperation and patience.”
Costco, the nation's largest warehouse retailer, said yesterday that it had seen increased demand for basic food staples as well like rice and flour. The company had a two 50-lb limit on rice purchases as well to keep people from hoarding and reselling the rice.
Jordan Mandelberg of FOX Business said a San Francisco-based Costco has basically sold completely out of its supply of rice. Only one pallet of white rice was left by the late morning in California.
Joe Morris of the California Rice Commission said the supply concerns stem from imported long-grain rice, not the domestic medium-grain rice grown here in the states.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Japan turns down 60,000 tons of rice due to high prices - Thai exporters
April 23, 2008
BANGKOK (Thomson Financial) - Japan has turned down 60,000 tons of rice from Thailand after the asking price nearly doubled in the space of a month, the Thai Rice Exporters Association said Wednesday.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the association, said Thailand on Tuesday offered the Japanese government 100 percent white rice at $1,300 per ton -- up from the $720 it paid in March.
'This time, Japan turned it down, saying that the price was too high for their budget,' Chookiat said, adding that Japan did not want to be seen as a country pushing up global rice prices.
International demand for Thai rice has soared after other top exporters Vietnam and India imposed limits on exports to ensure domestic supply.
Chookiat said he thought Thai rice prices, which have soared since February, would stabilise in the next two months.
'That is our expectation, but we are waiting to hear from two major rice importers, Indonesia and Iran. We have not heard from them yet, and their demand can drive the prices up,' Chookiat said.
Thailand exported more than 1 million tons of rice to Indonesia and Iran last year, while Japan received more than 200,000 tons.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association released updated figures Wednesday, with the benchmark Pathumthani fragrant rice priced at $998 per ton, up from $956 two weeks ago.
Four weeks ago, that grain was selling at $624.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
COMMENTARY
Jade now sits on a sea of questions
By CHEW XIANG
April 25, 2008
IN five short days, three key Jade Technologies personnel have left - chairman Brian Beazer, chief financial officer Vera Lim (now serving her six-month notice period) and lawyer Joanna Teng.
It isn't yet apparent what's going on but a clear-out on this scale should give investors much food for thought - very little of it pleasant.
First, perish the idea that the exodus is good news - that top brass are falling on their swords after a botched take- over attempt by its group president Anthony Soh earlier this month.
For one, regulatory attention so far has been trained squarely on Dr Soh and his takeover vehicle, Asia Pacific Links (APL). APL's financial adviser OCBC Bank along with its legal adviser Allen & Gledhill - no fools, either firm - both quit around April 1. Questions have also been raised about delays in disclosures of significant shareholdings to the stock exchange. But there has been no suggestion that the three who have left were culpable in any way.
Coming so close together, the recent departures - of professional advisers, it must be emphasised - are likely to be connected. If so, the focus should naturally fall on non-executive chairman Mr Beazer - specifically, on the dispute over the contents of the as-yet unreleased shareholders' circular that caused him to up stakes and leave. What did Mr Beazer want that the board did not? With all the attention on Dr Soh and the aborted general offer, what importance could the sale of a loss-making subsidiary have?
As it happens, a lot. Jade Precision Engineering was once the company's core business. Selling it would signal the company's move into new, and hopefully more profitable, ventures after seven years in the red. But move into what, exactly? It's significant that very few of Jade's announced deals have actually come to fruition.
Last year, it was going into oil and gas trading. A contract with FCGIL, a company registered in British Virgin Islands and controlled by Dr Soh, earned Jade $3.8 million in bonus payments that kept the company just barely in operating profit in 2007. (It still made a small net loss, after taxes.) Dr Soh has mentioned more oil deals in a bullish update to The Edge newspaper, but crucially, the company has yet to disclose real progress.
In Jade's 2007 annual report, Dr Soh also spoke of an estimated $8.8 million profit - from buying a 220,600 sq m plot of land in Malaysia for $17.4 million last September, then immediately selling it for $27 million. But in late March, Jade said it was still in negotiations to complete the sale no later than June 30 - meaning that deal is still in limbo.
Then in January an agreement to buy part of a China oil refinery was announced with much fanfare. A public relations company was engaged for the occasion and three local newspapers were present at the press briefing. The refinery and a concurrent deal for another, larger oil refinery, plus development of a 3 sq km plot of land, could cost Jade $1.37 billion in investments and loans over the next three years, the company said then.
For a penny stock, that's some project. But no progress has been reported on the oil refinery and no updates given on the land development deal either. So that's another deal apparently still stuck in no-man's land.
Yet investors are clinging on in the hope that a mammoth coal mine project in Indonesia, previously valued at as much as $1 billion, will take off, injecting sparkle into Jade's depressed share price.
Private share placement
They were cheered when on Tuesday, the company announced with great publicity - an interview with a local newspaper arranged in swanky St Regis hotel was published with a photograph of Dr Soh in a bright yellow tie posing with an Indonesian governor - that shipping of 15,000 to 30,000 tonnes of coal could begin as early as July. Its shares surged 20 per cent on the news.
All that was needed was US$4 million. Jade said it was speaking to investors to raise the sum.
But why does it need to? In its annual results last September, Jade reported it held just $1.4 million in cash and cash equivalents. Cash flow from operating activities was minus $4.4 million. But one month later it announced that a private share placement of 50 million shares had netted a much-needed $16.4 million. There has been no update on use of the proceeds, but why is the company not using this money, if it still has it?
Meanwhile, a proposed notes issue of up to $150 million has been delayed to May.
With no viable ongoing business once Jade Precision Engineering is sold, it's not clear where cash will come from to tide the company over till the coal mine gets going. Investors should keep their eyes peeled for Jade's half-yearly results due some time in May.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Behind the Run on Rice
Despite bumper crops in Vietnam and India, export limits and bans have created a global shortage and driven up prices
By Pallavi Gogoi
April 25, 2008
At the Costco in San Francisco, rice is all the rage. Not long after the 10 a.m. opening on Apr. 24, the warehouse club was well on its way to selling out the day's supply of Thai jasmine rice. Within an hour, customers cleared three pallets loaded with 50-lb. bags of Super Lucky Elephant brand jasmine rice from Thailand. Real estate broker Mary Jane Galviso snapped up two bags—the limit imposed by this particular store. "This is very frightening," says Galviso, who hails from Orosi, a rural community in California's Central Valley, more than 200 miles southeast of San Francisco. Her local grocery, which specializes in Filipino foods, has run out of Thai jasmine.
In a dramatic development for U.S. consumers this month, shoppers and Asian and Indian restaurant owners started panic-buying two of the highest-premium varieties of rice—Thai jasmine and Indian basmati. That led many grocers to run out of the rice, and warehouse clubs including Costco and Sam's Club imposed limits on how much rice shoppers can buy.
The restrictions placed by Issaquah (Wash.)-based Costco (COST) vary across the country, while Sam's Club, a division of Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), limited its customers to four 20-lb. bags of rice. "We've heard of cases where restaurant owners are hoarding three weeks' supply of rice in their basement, which is obviously more than they currently need, which makes the situation even worse," says Richard Galanti, Costco's chief financial officer.
Record High Prices for Rice
In a statement Apr. 24, Sam's Club said its rice limits "are designed to prevent large distributors or wholesalers from depleting our stock. We believe limiting rice purchases to four bags per visit is consistent with the needs of the majority of our members, including many restaurants…. We will continue to work with our suppliers to manage inventories to meet demand."
The rice rationing in the U.S. comes as the torrid pace of commodity price increases has led to violence over food supplies and costs in several nations. Globally, rice prices are starting to hit record highs, following a host of other commodities. However, experts are clear: There's currently no shortage of rice. "Vietnam and Thailand have had record rice crops in the past year, and India too has had bumper crops," says Nathan Childs, a senior economist who follows the global rice market at the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Agriculture Dept.
Instead, what's driving the price of rice so high are widespread worries about food inflation in many rice-growing nations. "In poorer nations, a large share of people's earnings is spent on food, and big price increases in other kinds of food are harming consumers," Childs says. So to protect their supplies of rice—a staple food in much of the world—several countries have imposed export bans or sharp limits. That has led to a sharp reduction of rice available for trade in the global market. In 2007, India and Vietnam, two of the world's biggest rice exporters, reduced their rice shipments. Since then, Cambodia, Egypt, and Brazil have all halted rice exports. And many observers worry that Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, might jump on the bandwagon.
Lots of Action in Rice Futures
Prices have soared to eye-popping levels in recent weeks: U.S. long grain rice has doubled, to $800 per ton. Indian basmati rice prices are up 182%, to $2,400 a ton, so far in April, compared to $850 per ton a year ago, while Thai jasmine has more than doubled in price since last year, from $559 per ton to $1,125.
The runup has been especially sharp since January, when Thai jasmine rice was trading at $625 and basmati at $1,300 per ton, respectively. At the Chicago Board of Trade, rice futures have historically been one of the most thinly traded contracts.
However, with rice futures gaining 80% in the past year to $24 per hundredweight, the contract is seeing a lot of trading lately. (A hundredweight is the equivalent of 112 lb.) "I've never seen a rice market until this year in my three decades of trading grains," says a shocked Tim Hannagan, senior grain analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.
Allegations of Global Rice Hoarding
The outlook appears grim, especially for nations that are net importers of the grain and that have large rice-consuming populations, such as the Philippines and Iran. A recent international auction offers one glimpse into how tight the global rice market has gotten this year. On Apr. 15, according to the Agriculture Dept.'s Childs, the Philippine government tried to buy 500,000 tons of rice in the global market but managed to get only 320,000 tons, leading several rice trade groups to contend that producers are hoarding rice to see how much higher prices will rise. That news sent a jolt through wholesale marketers around the world.
Restaurants and consumers in the U.S. followed suit last week and started buying up their own future rice requirements. The Philippine government has announced that it plans to enter the rice market for another 100,000 to 600,000 tons. If it can't find the rice it wants to buy, that could signal a true crisis for the staple at a time when the world is already gripped by concerns about food prices and supplies of other staple products such as wheat and meat.
Aromatic Rice's Recent Gain in Popularity
Jasmine and basmati are both known as aromatic rice, because of the special aroma they emit while cooking, an attribute that has proven difficult to duplicate when grown in countries other than their origin. Because of this quality, they have always commanded substantially higher prices than other varieties of rice. Basmati is grown in India and Pakistan, while jasmine rice comes from Thailand. Their consumption in the U.S. has grown exponentially in the past decade, while overall rice consumption has kept pace with U.S. population growth, rising a mere 2% or so annually in the past decade.
Imports of jasmine rice from Thailand grew 78% in the last 10 years, to 394,000 metric tons in 2007, while basmati imports in the same period grew 112%, to 71,000 metric tons in 2007, according to the USDA. While both types are sold in India and Thailand, these highest-premium varieties are rarely consumed in their native countries and are produced mostly for export to Britain, the Middle East, Hong Kong, Canada, the U.S., and Singapore.
Clearly, consumers like California's Galviso prefer Thai jasmine rice. Her family eats rice at three meals daily and prefers the jasmine variety, calling it "the prized one, because of its smell." On Thursday, Galviso was willing to detour into Costco despite her several-hour commute into San Francisco, where she works. Still, to keep costs in check, she has resorted to mixing jasmine with other, less expensive varieties.
San Francisco's Costco sells 50-lb. bags of jasmine rice for $21.99, while other stores sell the same rice for about twice that. The company is trying to satisfy customers' demand for rice while keeping prices in check. It's anyone's guess how long the company can continue walking that fine line. "With every single truckload, the price goes up," says John Booth, a regional operations manager, who adds that he hasn't seen such great demand for rice in his nearly 22 years with the company. "We're seeing prices increase daily."
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
U.S. Rice Sector Has Promising Outlook
Total U.S. rice exports are forecast to rise 20 percent
NEW YORK, April 20 /PRNewswire/ -- Two years after questions arose regarding the viability of the U.S. rice industry, the sector has emerged stronger and has a very promising outlook with total U.S. rice exports forecast to increase around 20 percent, according to a new Rabobank report, "U.S. Rice."
"The outlook for U.S. rice growers remains strong, with more cause for optimism than concern. However, with global rice stocks already at low levels, prices are especially susceptible to any shocks," said Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Vice President Michael Whitehead. "Adverse weather in a particular rice-growing region could be one cause of price increases, while a potential cause for a significant drop in rice prices would be a perfect storm of excellent and unimpaired growing conditions in the major producing countries."
Production
Despite attractive prices of alternative crops, U.S. planted rice acreage fell only 3 percent in 2007/08. This differed, depending on the class of rice, with medium/short-grain rice production up approximately 16 percent on the previous crop year, while long-grain rice was down about 3 percent.
Globally, rice production is forecast to hit a record 423 million metric tons (milled basis) in the 2007-08 crop year. In China, the largest producer of rice, production is likely to remain steady because there have been major productivity gains from super-high yielding plants despite some drought conditions. Many growers in Vietnam are also likely to see production levels unchanged. However, in Thailand, the largest exporter of rice, improved yields through good weather are likely to see production increase to 30 million metric tons in the 2007-08 crop year.
Global Exports
Total U.S. rice exports for 2007/08 are forecast to increase approximately 20 percent from the previous year -- in part due to export restrictions imposed by Vietnam and India. In the United States, rough rice exports largely destined for Mexico and Central America, are forecast to improve 14 percent from the previous year. Additionally, U.S. milled rice exports are forecast to jump 25 percent; although still 10 percent below the 2005-06 crop year.
"U.S. export prices continue to experience upward pressure from several factors, including healthy sales, generally high commodity prices and the relatively weaker U.S. dollar," said Whitehead.
Globally, the story varies. In Thailand, the largest exporter, the country's share of global rice trade grew from 26 percent in 2006 to a projected 32 percent in 2007, but its rice stocks are likely to fall by around 10 percent. "Even though stocks are still at a reasonably healthy level, such a drop does not go unnoticed by the market, and could have upward pressure on prices," said Whitehead.
In addition, 2007 exports fell in Vietnam, the world's second largest exporter, and in Pakistan. In Vietnam, exports were suspended in November 2007 when the country reached its export ceiling. New export limits and taxes for 2008 may see Vietnam's rice exports for 2008 fall by around 20 percent. Additionally, in Pakistan, exports are likely to fall almost 40 percent a result of a poor harvest and rising domestic prices.
In India, fears that high prices may hinder efforts to rebuild domestic stocks led to the imposition of export restrictions in the form of high minimum export prices, which effectively stopped the exports of all rice from India -- except Basmati or high-quality non-Basmati rice. With little sign that these restrictions will be lifted in the near future, India's rice exports may fall approximately 10 percent.
Prices
Prices in the rice sector have continued to rise in part due to strong global demand, the decreasing value of the U.S. dollar, increased attention from speculative investors and the recent global growth of biofuels. "Indisputably, the recent global growth of biofuels has influenced the price of rice in several ways. In the United States, competition for rice acreage has come from grains and oilseeds, boosted in price by biofuels or feed/food gap demand," said Whitehead.
Major price increases were seen in aromatic rice, largely a result of limited supplies from India and Pakistan, as well as increased demand pressures from the EU and some Asian markets. In addition, lower-quality Indica rice prices also rose sharply, driven by factors such as domestic price increases in China and Pakistan, as well as import restrictions in Vietnam. While the post rice harvest period in many countries would normally ease upward pressure on prices, export restrictions or tariffs from a number of major suppliers including Vietnam, India and Egypt have made this less likely.
The involvement of funds in the rice sector continues to place upward pressure on prices. In the wake of last year's strong global prices in grains and oilseeds, many new players that have become increasingly nervous about traditional equities have gained some understanding of agricultural commodities, but feel they may have missed the opportunity for strong returns on grains and oilseeds. With the strong outlook for rice demand, it is likely that new investors will continue to play a role in maintaining upward pressure on prices.
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Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
Sharp hike in kindergarten fees
TODAYonline, Alicia Wong
April 25, 2008
Some 1,500 students attending the seven PAP Community Foundation (PCF) kindergartens in Woodlands will see their fees shoot up by 30 to 100 per cent from July.
Then, about 50-odd PCF branches will raise their fees when a freeze in effect since last July comes to an end.
The PCF, which has 84 branches, each with up to eight centres, told Today "65 per cent of the branches will be adjusting their fees because operating costs have increased".
A letter sent by the PCF Woodlands branch to notify the parents of its 250 students said that PCF branches in the Sembawang Group Representation Constituency (GRC) — which comprises Sembawang, Woodlands, Marsiling, Admiralty, Canberra and Chong Pang wards — "collectively submitted our applications for a standardised GRC fee structure for approval to PCF HQ".
Woodlands kindergartens in Blk 601 and Blk 875 will hike monthly fees from $50.90 to $110 per child because they will be air-conditioned. Air-conditioned kindergartens in blocks 899B, 652 and 824 will increase fees from $86.60 to $110, while non-air-conditioned ones in blocks 624B and 853 will hike theirs from $50.90 to $95.
Nurseries run by PCF Woodlands will also see a $20 to $30 monthly fee increase from July.
PCF Woodlands' letter attributed the hikes to, among other things, rising operational costs and the need to fund training programmes for staff to meet new Ministry of Education (MOE) requirements.
Last month, the MOE raised the bar for kindergarten teachers, who will need a teaching diploma in pre-school education, not just a certificate.
Last year, the PCF froze fees and absorbed the additional 2 per cent Goods and Services Tax from July to December.
Some parents from the Woodlands kindergartens had petitioned against the hike. But PCF Woodlands administrator Amy Chia said "after much consideration", they decided to proceed with the fee adjustment, since the Government Kindergarten Financial Assistance Scheme is available for low-income parents.
Parent Aileen Lee, 31, who would pay $96 from July instead of $20 now, said she was "quite okay" with the hike.
Meanwhile, fees look set to go up at other kindergartens and childcare centres — if they have not already done so.
A 35-year-old accountant, whose son was enrolled at The Experiential Learning Centre last year, got a "rude shock" when the childcare centre said subsidised fees will increase from $250 to $400 per month by the year end.
Ms Kate Tan, 32, who is self-employed, said within eight months of enrolling her five-year-old son in a kindergarten at Seng Kang Methodist Church last year, fees shot up by 20 per cent to over $500 per term.
A check with four other kindergartens showed Josiah Montessori had raised its fees last year, and Kidzone Kindergarten will do so in May. One school at Jurong East is considering a hike, while Zulfa Kindergarten and Sembawang Mart will stick to its $110 fee.
"PCF school fees are reasonable and affordable … We hope parents will understand," said PCF executive Sherlene Wong.
*********************************************************************************
Reuters - Saturday, February 16, 2008
SINGAPORE, Feb 15 - Singapore government ministers and other political appointees, the world’s best paid, will cost taxpayers another 15 percent in the coming financial year starting April, according to the city-state’s budget on Friday.
The state will spend S$66.5 million on political appointments, up from S$58.1 million in the current fiscal year to March — which was also 27 percent up on 2006/2007.
The government announced two rounds of pay hikes for ministers last year, raising Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s annual pay to S$3.76 million — at least five times that of U.S. President George W. Bush.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
A Random Walk Down Connaught Road?
A high-flying Hong Kong fund proves it’s very difficult to be right all the time
Philip Bowring
25 April 2008
“Do you sincerely want to be rich?” The once-notorious fund manager Bernie Cornfeld answered his own question by advising those who did: “Don’t fool around with light globes or steel, work directly with money.”
Malaysian journalist-turned-fund-manager Cheah Cheng Hye seems to have followed that advice, ending up as the most highly paid person at any listed company in Hong Kong. His salary and bonus as chairman and chief executive of fund management group Value Partners for 2007 totaled HK$253 million, almost double the previous record, set last year when by Hutchison Whampoa group chief executive Canning Fok Kin-ning.
Cheah was one of the two founders of 15-year-old Value Partners, which went public late last year; he owns 35 percent of a stock with a current market capitalization of around HK$11 billion. What is extraordinary is not his income, which is quite properly linked to the performance of a company highly dependent on a tiny number of individuals. It is that investors, institutional ones in particular, go along with “heads I win, tails you lose” remuneration arrangements with fund managers like Value Partners. It is all the more remarkable in that the medium-term performance of Value Partners’ public funds has been no more than mediocre when compared with most of the usual benchmarks.
For sure, its flagship fund, the Value Partners Classic Fund A units, have gained 1,685 percent since the fund’s 1993 launch compared with a gain of just 323 percent for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index over the same period. But much of that performance of the Greater China focused fund was recorded in its earlier days when it was a small fund – no units were issued after 2002 – and today it comprises only 17 percent of the company’s public funds.
Of more relevance to most investors — and to the company’s remuneration — is short-to-medium-term performance. Thus the A fund over the year to February 2008 rose 23 percent compared with a Hang Seng index rise of 28 percent and an H shares index rise of 52 percent. Over three years with a gain of 103 percent it beat the Hang Seng index, up 93 percent, but was far behind the H share index, at 190 percent, let alone Shanghai’s 233 percent increase.
The US$278 million China Convergence fund shows similar characteristics. A 33 percent one-year gain and 152 percent three-year advance falls far behind all its own benchmarks, the H shares and the Shanghai and Shenzhen. Clearly the fund was playing safe and investing in more conservative Hong Kong stocks than higher-flying mainland issues. But judged by its own announced objectives it was abysmal.
The other China-specific fund, the China Mainland Focus Fund, with assets of US$152 million, likewise lagged its benchmarks by a long way, gaining only 29 percent over one year and 111 percent over three years – a period when H shares rose 52 percent and 190 percent, respectively and Shanghai rose by 50 percent and 233 percent.
The biggest of all the funds, at US$346 million, is the Value Partners High-Dividend Stocks Fund, which marginally outperformed its benchmark, the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index, rising 81 percent in three years compared with 71 percent for its benchmark. But even that looks unimpressive given that over 67 percent of its investments were in Hong Kong/China/Taiwan, far higher weightings for those markets than is the case for the benchmark.
It could be argued that short-to-medium-term underperformance is not unreasonable for funds with long-term investment strategies. However, that does not explain why the management company should be so generously rewarded for short-term performance – and regardless of how they perform against their own benchmarks.
In the case of the Value Partners public funds – about two thirds of its assets under management – it gets a 15 percent performance fee on top of a 1.25 percent annual management fee and an initial charge of up to 5 percent. The performance fee is based on absolute not relative performance and accounts for the bulk of revenue. Gross performance fees totaled HK$2.075 billion last year compared with gross management fees of HK$436 million for total revenue of HK$2.5 billion. Even after paying huge bonuses to management, pre-tax profit was 65 percent of turnover.
The management fee alone is quite steep by US standards, though not by the inflated rates applied in Hong Kong’s cozy environment. As for the performance fee, it is extraordinary that investors should accept what amounts to a 15 percent tax on capital gains that have not been realized and regardless of how the managers have performed relative to market benchmarks.
Even more amazing in the Value Partners’ case is that almost all of their clients are other financial institutions, pension funds, funds of funds and foundations. According to its annual report, high-net-worth individuals account for 5.6 percent and retail investors for just 13 percent. It seems that most retail investors are too smart to be taken for a performance fee rise.
But other financial institutions, which themselves charge fees for managing money, do little but pass on the work to the likes of Value Partners ‑ as a result their clients’ investments are further pillaged by performance and management fees. For Value Partners in 2007 these amounted to roughly 4.4 percent of assets under management at year-end. It is a pyramid of which Cornfeld, father of the original Fund of Funds marketed by his Investors Overseas Services, would have been proud.
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008
U.S. Economy: Sentiment Weakens More Than Anticipated
By Bob Willis
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell more than forecast in April to a 26-year low as record fuel prices and rising unemployment threatened to reduce spending.
The Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index decreased to 62.6, from 69.5 the previous month. The measure was down from a preliminary estimate of 63.2 issued on April 11.
Consumers are growing increasingly anxious because the economy has lost almost a quarter million jobs so far this year, gasoline is up 17 percent and property values have fallen. Sales of houses and cars have declined as a result, contributing to a slowdown that may bring an end to the six-year expansion.
``Consumers are feeling the pinch, not only from the labor market, but also from prices,'' Aaron Smith, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``There's a squeeze on incomes from two sides.''
Economists had forecast the consumer sentiment gauge would fall to 63.2 from 69.5 in March, according to the median of 60 projections in a Bloomberg News survey.
The index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, dropped to 53.3 from 60.1 last month.
Stocks fell, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 56.2 points, or 0.4 percent, to 12,792.8 at 12:28 p.m. in New York.
Current Conditions
A measure of current conditions, which reflects Americans' perceptions of their financial situation and whether it's a good time to make big-ticket purchases like cars, decreased to 77 from 84.2 last month.
Consumers were also more concerned about inflation. Americans thought prices would increase 4.8 percent over the next 12 months, up from a 4.3 percent estimate in March. Longer term, inflation was pegged at 3.2 percent, the highest level since August 2006 and compared with 2.9 percent last month.
The economy lost 80,000 jobs in March, the most in five years, following a 76,000 drop in payrolls in each of the prior two months, according to figures from the Labor Department. The jobless rate rose to 5.1 percent, the highest level in more than two years.
Rising fuel costs have contributed to a drop in auto sales and prompted some shoppers to limit trips to malls. The average price of regular unleaded gasoline rose to a record $3.58 a gallon yesterday, according to data from AAA.
Auto Sales
Cars and light trucks sold at an average 15.2 million annual pace in the first three months of the year, the fewest since the third quarter of 1998. Some 14.9 million autos will be sold this year, the fewest since 1995, Standard & Poor's forecast this month.
AutoNation Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. car dealer, yesterday said first-quarter profit fell 35 percent as weak housing markets in states including California hurt demand for new vehicles.
``We expect to continue to see a challenging automotive retail market as long as the current economic difficulties persist,'' Chief Executive Officer Michael Jackson said in a statement.
Only one-third of consumers polled by the University of Michigan said they planned to spend the tax-rebate checks that the Treasury Department is poised to send as part of the Bush administration's economic stimulus plan. The majority of Americans plan to use the money to pay down debt or boost savings, the report said.
Bush Comments
President George W. Bush today said Americans will start getting that tax rebates next week and predicted the money will give the economy a boost.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month forecast consumer spending will rise at a 0.5 percent pace in the first half of the year, the smallest gain since 1991. The economy is unlikely to grow at all through June, the survey also showed.
Those polled put the odds of the economy entering a recession this year at 70 percent, up from 50 percent in the prior month's poll.
The biggest housing slump in a generation is leading the downturn. Home prices nationwide have fallen 10 percent from their peak, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price index, and many economists are forecasting values will keep dropping. Falling property prices make Americans feel less wealthy and reduce the amount of equity owners can tap for spending.
Rising foreclosures are also lifting stress levels. Foreclosure filings jumped 57 percent and bank repossessions more than doubled in March from a year earlier as rates on adjustable mortgages increased, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, said last week.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Oil prices up on word US ship fired on boats in Persian Gulf
By John Wilen
April 25, 2008
Oil jumps on supply concerns stoked by firing in Persian Gulf, attack in Nigeria
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices rose sharply Friday on news that a ship under contract to the U.S. Defense Department fired warning shots at two boats in the Persian Gulf. Retail gas prices as expected rose further into record territory, nearing $3.60 a gallon.
Crude prices rose on initial reports that a U.S. ship had fired on two Iranian boats; the news raised concerns that a conflict between U.S. and Iranian forces could cut oil supplies from the region. Later reports said the origin of the boats was unclear.
But the news was enough to send light, sweet crude for June delivery up to $119.55 before the contract retreated to trade up $2.94 at $119.00 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The incident at first appeared to be the latest in a series of encounters between U.S. forces and Iranian boats in the Gulf. Early this month, the USS Typhoon fired a flare at an Iranian boat that came within about 200 yards of the ship. In January, several Iranian boats made what the Navy described as provocative moves near a U.S. ship in the Strait of Hormuz. And in December the USS Whidbey Island fired warning shots at a small Iranian boat officials said was rapidly approaching the ship.
On Friday, oil prices were already up before the report on news of a pipeline attack in Nigeria and a looming refinery strike in Scotland.
In Nigeria, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said its fighters hit an oil pipeline late Thursday, the fourth conduit the group has attacked in the past week. MEND said the pipeline belongs to a Royal Dutch Shell PLC joint venture. A Shell spokesman confirmed one of its pipelines had been hit, but provided no additional details.
Earlier this week, Shell said an earlier attack cut its Nigerian oil production by about 170,000 barrels a day.
Separately, workers at an ExxonMobil Corp. joint venture in Nigeria cut production by an unspecified amount to demand more pay.
Adding to the supply concerns, BP PLC said it will shut down a 700,000 barrel-a-day pipeline system that carries oil from the North Sea to refineries in the U.K. on Saturday in anticipation of a strike at Scotland's Grangemouth refinery expected to begin Sunday.
The refinery supplies power and steam to the pipeline; if it shuts down, the pipeline can't operate.
Oil's rise came as the dollar strengthened. A stronger dollar typically encourages selling by making commodities such as oil less effective hedges against inflation, and by making oil more expensive to overseas investors. Analysts say the dollar's steady decline over the past year is the chief culprit behind this year's rapid rise in oil prices.
But, notes Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill., "that connection between oil and the dollar can be broken easily by supply issues," which drove trading on Friday.
At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices rose another 2.1 cents Friday to a record national average of $3.577 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices have been following oil futures higher, but are also rising due to concerns about whether gasoline supplies are adequate to meet peak summer driving demand.
Analysts expect gas prices to continue rising for at least another month; predictions of how high prices will rise range from $3.70 to $4 a gallon. To a large extent, how high gas prices peak depends on what oil does.
Lately, analysts have recently raised their oil price predictions to $125 to $130 a barrel. Earlier this week, the expiring May crude contract rose as high as $119.90 as investors scrambled to square positions.
However, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates less sharply next week than originally thought. Because rate cuts tend to weaken the dollar, a smaller than expected cut could push the dollar higher, and send oil prices down.
In other Nymex trading Friday, May gasoline futures rose 3.79 cents to $3.0565 a gallon after earlier rising to a new trading record of $3.0815, and May heating oil futures rose 5.47 cents to $3.3028 a gallon. May natural gas futures rose 16.2 cents to $11.105 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude futures rose $2.86 to $117.20 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Nobel Winner Stiglitz: US Facing Long Recession
April 25, 2008
The U.S. economy is already in recession -- and may echo the 1930s, Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said Friday.
"The big question is: how will the government respond?" said Stiglitz, in an interview with CNBC. Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and 2001 winner of the Nobel prize, detailed his bleak outlook for the American economy.
"This is going to be one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression," said Stiglitz.
He explained that main cause of the current situation is historically unique -- and thus is befuddling those charged with creating solutions.
Other downturns were primarily caused by excesses in inventories or inflation; but this slowdown is due to the condition of "badly impaired" banks and financial entities, which are unwilling and/or unable to lend capital -- stymieing the very borrowers who usually drive the country back to vitality, Stiglitz said. And the Federal Reserve may have used up its ammunition -- and the faith investors and planners have put in it.
"[The Fed] will be between a rock and hard place. And we're not over-worrying about credit. But [simultaneously], we need to start worrying about the real sector," he said.
And if inflation wasn't the prime recession cause, it's still a menace. The professor points to the two-pronged danger of high oil prices joined by climbing food prices, harming businesses and scaring consumers.
"Oil is particularly bad," as it means that more U.S. dollars "will be going abroad," he said.
The housing downturn is an even worse economic factor than casual observers realized, Stiglitz said. He explained that during the real estate boom, Americans were able to withdraw billions of dollars from their home equity.
"[But] with housing prices coming down, it's going to be difficult to do that anymore," he said -- drying up a spending source. And within that problem, still another complication: people typically spent the money they drew off their home equity on consumption, rather than investment -- garnering no return on the spending.
"The savings rate as we go into the recession is zero. Which means [savings] will go up, " he said -- decreasing consumer spending and weakening retail further.
What about the government stimulus package?
"The Bush Administration's response is too little, too late -- and very badly designed," he declared. The amount ostensibly being infused into the economy by tax rebate checks will be a "drop in the bucket" compared to the money being held back and siphoned out by the factors he mentioned.
"If you really wanted to stimulate the economy, increase unemployment insurance," he suggested.
"The president is telling people to go out and get jobs -- and there are no jobs for them," he said.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Release Date: April 24, 2008
FEDERAL RESERVE STATISTICAL RELEASE
H.3 (502)
Table 1
AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS AND THE MONETARY BASE
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Electoral tidal wave forming
The saga of Mas Selamat Kastari’s escape from detention has moved beyond security concerns to doubts on accountability.
SEAH CHIANG NEE
Saturday April 26, 2008
WHEN Singapore’s terrorist leader Mas Selamat Kastari escaped from high-security detention two months ago, he could not possibly have foreseen the political repercussion that he was leaving behind.
It has given Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong his worst political headache since he took office nearly four years ago.
The saga of the Jemaah Islamiah leader’s escape from the Whitley Detention Centre has moved beyond security concerns and the negative international image.
It has raised doubts on government accountability in Singapore and revisited the unpopular issue of high Cabinet pay by raising questions like:
> How damaging to the nation must a government mistake be before a Cabinet minister – who is paid more than the US president – is held responsible?
> Must punishment, however serious the mistake, be applicable only to the civil servants or the foot soldiers, but not to the political leader who is responsible for overall planning?
This dilemma began with a government-appointed committee report revealing a list of incredible bungles and neglect by the Home Affairs Ministry, which is in overall charge of the centre.
A “confluence of factors” or “lapses” is how the report calls the mistakes that allowed Mas Selamat to climb out of a toilet window and flee in his underwear. Two months later, he’s still at large.
Mas Selamat is no ordinary criminal, but leader of a terror network who was trained in Afghanistan. He had plotted to crash a commercial plane into Changi Airport as well as blow up foreign embassies.
Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew has said that if Mas Kastari succeeds in fleeing to Indonesia, he may return to carry out his bombing threats.
And the Whitley Detention Centre is a tiny version of America’s Guantanamo, which houses all the terrorist suspects in Singapore.
His escape presented Prime Minister Lee with a tough choice: either ditch the minister responsible, as widely demanded by the public, or defend him.
He chose to support a party colleague, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, and go against public opinion.
Lee stated that ministers should not be automatically removed for lapses down the line. This came as a surprise to a generation of Singaporeans raised under his father’s strict governance.
He said his government would not encourage a culture where ministers resign whenever things go wrong on their watch, whether or not they are actually to blame.
By downgrading ministerial responsibility, he may have established a new principle of governance for Singapore that differs from other countries.
Many nations in Europe and Asia (from Britain to Japan and South Korea) hold their leaders or Cabinet ministers liable for a major blunder, either by sacking or allowing them to resign.
The response of Singaporeans over the Internet has predictably been very negative, with some accusing him of double standards – one rule for ministers and another for the civil service.
An online poll on whether Home Affairs Minister Wong Kan Seng should be sacked showed a 94% “yes” vote, with only 6% disagreeing.
But Lee was adamant. “That would be the easy way out. It may temporarily appease an angry public, but it will not fundamentally solve the problem,” he said.
The result has been a transfer of some of the political heat from the Home Affairs Minister to the Prime Minister.
The critics complain that since ministers are paid super-high wages pegged to the top private sector, Lee should also hold them to the same standards of accountability.
Said Workers’ Party chief Low Thia Khiang: “In the corporate world, when something goes wrong, heads that roll would include the CEO’s. Here, when something goes wrong, we talk about honest mistakes.”
Even government backbencher Inderjit Singh (Ang Mo Kio) drew the same conclusion.
“We have adopted a reward system that matches that of the private sector, that we pay everyone as high as possible,” he said. “Therefore, people expect that when you make a mistake, you will be appropriately punished.”
The pressure for accountability is so strong and widespread that some observers believe that Lee’s defence of Wong will not stand beyond the next election in three years’ time.
“In a one-man-one-vote system, no prime minister is silly enough to stand in front of a tidal electoral wave,” said a newspaper reporter. “Wong is a big political liability and will have to go.”
Some observers believe this will happen after a decent interval, with Wong being transferred out of Home Affairs before 2011.
In a Cabinet reshuffle on March 29, a month after Mas Selamat’s escape, Lee appointed K. Shanmugam as Law Minister – as well as Second Minister for Home Affairs.
This is seen as preparation for Wong’s eventual replacement in case Lee decides to make the change.
While public criticism rages on over the websites, newspapers’ letters pages remain largely silent.
“Singaporeans with half a brain will know it is less about being different from other countries, but more about protecting their own kind – the tight-knit network of elites who run this country,” Gerald Giam wrote in his blog.
Kelvin Tong added: “In my view, PM Lee failed to see one point: Singapore ministers are the highest paid in the world. Logically speaking, the echelon of accountability has to be higher in tandem, no?”
Robert Teh wrote: “This is truly the world’s best leadership – just watch the charisma of a leader explaining all the faults in his prison windows as caused by other junior officers, not his own ministry.”
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Yawning Bread. 22 April 2008
The great hunt: more management failures than guards' lapses
- Wong Kan Seng was both detailed and fumbling in explaining Mas Selamat's escape
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Political Commentary
The Mas Selamat Scandal: Its Impact on the Government-People Relationship
Catherine Lim
23 April 2008
The following article, like previous ones, was turned down for publication by the Straits Times. It looks like I should stop being thick-skinned and give up sending my commentaries to them!
‘Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.’ Something could get rotten in the state of Singapore as a result of the very unfortunate Mas Selamat scandal.
Scandal it is, in terms not only of its shocking nature—the most dangerous political prisoner and terrorist operative in Singapore makes a laughably easy escape in a super efficient, technologically advanced city state—but also of the serious doubts it is raising in the public’s perception of government accountability, and the damage that these doubts could do to the government-people relationship.
Up to this point, the relationship has been fairly stable and amicable, transcending whatever conflicts that have arisen over the years when the people expressed their unhappiness about the government’s decisions on various issues, such as those related to foreign workers, ministerial salaries, the casinos, Shin Corp, etc.
In each case, public debate has followed a predictable pattern: first, the people are allowed to speak their minds freely through the permitted channels including the forum pages of newspapers, TV debates, the feedback units, and dialogues with government representatives; next, at an appropriate point, the Prime Minister himself and his ministers enter the fray with patient, sustained explanations and persuasive arguments, and finally the matter comes to a close, usually with a gentle but firm message from the Prime Minister himself that in effect says, ‘Trust us; let’s move on.’
An expansion of this simple admonition could go something like this: ‘You have consistently re-elected us, thus acknowledging that we are a competent, responsible, trustworthy government. So even if we make unpopular decisions, it is only for the good of the society. And even if we cannot answer all your questions, it is only for reasons of national confidentiality and security. Therefore trust us, and we will continue to do our job well.’
In the Mas Selamat case, the government is precisely using this approach. But this time, it falls far short of the expectations of an increasingly articulate electorate, including, in the most surprising way, members of the PAP government itself, who seem to have suddenly become more alert, discerning and courageous, voicing reservations and asking questions in Parliament about government accountability that, in the past, could only have been expressed privately. Was the apology from the Minister of Home Affairs, followed by a detailed factual account of the escape, enough? Was the promise of corrective action to prevent such incidents in the future enough? Would not the findings of a Commission of Inquiry comprising members selected by the government itself raise more questions?
The voices raised in question and doubt, both in Parliament and the media, were expectedly measured and polite, in keeping with a tradition of deference to a powerful government that does not tolerate strident dissent. But politeness may soon give way to the persistence and boldness that come from conviction. The signs are that the voices, especially of the younger generation, will become a force to be reckoned with, because they are part of a whole new culture spawned by the Internet and globalization, with all that this implies of greater knowledgeability, awareness and sophistication.
Thus, a serious disconnect between the government and the people has arisen: while the government is still operating from the old perceptual paradigm carried over from a simpler, more innocent era, the people are developing a new one in keeping with the times. They are increasingly aware of new expectations and needs in their roles as citizens in a democratic society, and will no longer respond uncritically to the government’s usual exhortations of ‘Trust us’, ‘Also trust those we have picked to work for us,’ ‘Don’t forget what we have achieved,’ ‘Look at things in perspective’, ‘Let’s move on to more important, bread-and-butter matters,’ etc.
The Mas Selamat incident could cause the two paradigms to move so far apart as to make the disconnect permanent. Thus the incident may be seen as a watershed in the history of the government-people relationship, resulting either in a strengthening and maturing of the relationship on the one hand, or irreparable damage on the other.
Clearly, what the people expect, by way of an appropriate government response, is a large public gesture commensurate with the incident which in its magnitude has no precedent. That gesture will be no less than an offer of resignation from the Minister of Home Affairs himself. Whether the offer is accepted by the Prime Minister or the people is a separate matter. The personal integrity of the Minister is not in question. But in the conduct of the public life of a society, when something of this gravity happens, the symbolism is necessary. A symbolic act in public will have high visibility and emotive power, even in a pragmatic, down-to-earth society like Singapore, and can unite a people in times of trauma, giving a sense of something very like closure. Only then will Singaporeans regain their trust in the government and their belief in the honour, dignity and accountability of high office.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Raising wages to address rising costs not the right solution - Acting Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong, Channel NewsAsia, 25 April 2008
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Why why tell me why...
Two rounds of pay hikes for ministers? YES!
Raising wages for low-wage Singapore employees to address rising costs? NO!
只许州官放火，不许百姓点灯！
(zhǐ xǔ zhōu guān fàng huǒ，bù xǔ bǎi xìng diǎn dēng)
- The magistrates are free to burn down houses, while the common people are forbidden even to light lamps; the powerful can do whatever they want, the weak are not allowed to do anything.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
The Fed's golden opportunity
By Colin Barr
April 23, 2008
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The soaring price of crude oil isn't good for most people, but it could spell opportunity for Ben Bernanke.
The Fed chief's inflation-fighting credentials have been in doubt since he said in a 2002 speech that central banks could prevent deflation by dropping money out of a helicopter.
Since then, Bernanke's critics have only been emboldened by the Fed's aggressive response to the current credit crunch. While six rate cuts since last summer and expanded lending plans have helped forestall a broader financial crisis, they haven't quieted skeptics who fear a sharp rise in inflation.
Some think the Fed is partly to blame for the spike in commodity prices since rate cuts have helped to weaken the dollar. Despite this, investors are betting the Fed will cut rates when it meets again next Tuesday and Wednesday.
But one economist believes Bernanke could reap huge benefits simply by standing pat. By holding the line on rates, the thinking goes, the central bank's policy-making committee could send the prices of oil, gold and other goods tumbling - while serving a timely reminder that the Fed isn't letting inflation out of its sights.
James Hamilton, an economics professor at the University of California, San Diego, says a decision to pause now could reverse some of the gains in commodity prices and bolster the value of the dollar.
Many reasons behind fuel price shock
The soaring prices of crude oil and other commodities have become impossible to ignore. Crude fell just a dime shy of $120 a barrel in trading Tuesday, up from just $70 back on Labor Day of 2007.
Prices of metals such as copper and zinc and foodstuffs ranging from corn and wheat to oats and rice have soared as well, a fact hammered home by reports of food riots in cities in Egypt and Haiti.
Some of the rise in commodity prices can be explained by simple supply and demand. People in places like China and India are eating richer diets as their economies expand, and energy use is surging as industrialization moves forward.
"The Western world is finally sharing its prosperity with the rest of the world," says Robbert Van Batenburg, head of global research at Louis Capital Markets.
Prices also reflect other factors, such as subsidies, trade barriers and tariffs. The U.S., for instance, has earmarked a substantial amount of its corn crop to the production of ethanol - a decision that has made corn scarcer as a foodstuff at a time when global demand for grain is increasing and stockpiles are at longtime lows.
And of course the dollar has continued its multiyear decline against other major currencies. The euro recently fetched $1.60 - up from just 85 cents back in 2001.
But those factors alone fail to fully account for the surge in the prices of oil, rice and other goods. Howard Simons, a strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago, notes that the dollar has declined just 11% since Labor Day against a basket of major currencies, while the price of crude has surged some 70%.
Bubble brewing
The steep rise in commodity prices of all sorts has some investors using the b-word.
In a recent video interview with Money Magazine, billionaire investor George Soros said that "a new bubble is developing in commodities" and that this is leading to rising food costs and other inflation pressures.
That's one way of looking at it. Another way is to note that with stock markets muddling along and house prices falling sharply in the U.S., the U.K. and Spain, the easy money set has been left with few other winning trades.
"The guys who screwed up the mortgage markets are bringing their awesome skill sets to bear on physical commodity markets," Simons quips.
Hamilton believes these investors are buying commodities in part because of Bernanke's rate-cutting spree.
The Fed has cut its key federal funds rate to 2.25% from 5.25% back in September. At its current level, this overnight lending rate is below the annual rate of consumer inflation - creating what economists call negative real interest rates.
Negative real interest rates give investors an incentive to buy goods like oil and gold rather than watch their cash lose its purchasing power.
Time to pause
Hamilton concedes that there are "a long string of other fundamentals" driving up the prices of oil and food, but believes a decision to hold rates steady would get "immediate feedback" in the form of a broad selloff in commodities.
Indeed, Hamilton notes that the price of gold fell from its all-time highs after the Fed cut rates by three-quarters of a percentage point back on March 18 - a steep cut that, coming on the heels of the near collapse of Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), was actually less than some market participants expected.
There are signs that Hamilton's not the only one who believes the Fed could hold rates steady. Investors currently see a 12% chance the Fed will keep its overnight rate unchanged on April 30, according to federal funds futures listed on the Chicago Board of Trade
While the market is still widely expecting a quarter-point cut, as recently as a week ago, some thought that even a half-point rate cut was possible. That now appears to be off the table.
So Bernanke has a rare opportunity to remind speculators that the fight against inflation hasn't been abandoned.
"The Fed has a chance to surprise the markets," Hamilton said, adding that doing so would be "important for the Fed's credibility."
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
China's inflation worries
High prices for food, fuel and other goods are troubling
The Economist
Apr 25th 2008
Despite a slight dip in China's year-on-year consumer price inflation rate to 8.3% in March, from 8.7% in February, inflation remains at the top of the government's short-term policy concerns. According to a regular survey by the People's Bank of China (PBC, the central bank), a new high of 49% of respondents complained that prices were too high in the first quarter of 2008. These sentiments were echoed in a study by a market research firm, ACNielsen, which showed that consumers were cutting back on discretionary spending.
Worrying trends in underlying inflation have emerged, with price rises triggering increases in minimum monthly wage rates and welfare benefits. In Shanghai, for example, the minimum monthly wage rose on April 1st to Rmb960 (US$137) from Rmb840, and unemployment insurance rose to Rmb550 (from Rmb410). Allowances for poor rural households within Shanghai's jurisdiction have risen to Rmb3,200 a year.
In an effort to address concerns that grain shortages might push up food prices in China as they have done elsewhere in Asia, the premier, Wen Jiabao, in April reassured consumers that the country's grain reserves are ample, comprising over 150m tonnes. However, in late 2007 China had nonetheless imposed restrictions on grain exports, and the State Administration of Grain is conducting inspections in Anhui province, following claims by a renowned agricultural scientist, Yuan Longping, that grain reserves in some parts of China are empty. Press speculation about province-wide shortfalls, notably in Guangdong, has been repeatedly denied by the government.
Spiralling inflation prompted the imposition of stricter official controls on the prices of staple goods in late January. These remained in place throughout the first quarter of 2008, but some producers (notably of dairy goods) have been allowed to raise prices. Oil companies have not been successful in similar efforts, and it may be no coincidence that reports of oil product shortages, notably for diesel, re-emerged in March, first in southern provinces, but spreading to Shanghai and Beijing by the end of the month. The government recently announced a large package of compensation to China's top state-owned oil firms, meant to cover their losses on selling refined oil products at state-capped prices. These funds covered the period up to the end of the first quarter of 2008, suggesting that pressure for another rise in retail fuel prices will build in the weeks ahead.
Despite year-on-year growth in broad money (M2) trending down from 18.9% in January 2008 to 16.2% in March, according to central bank data, the PBC's governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, has emphasised the need to maintain the current regime of monetary policy tightening to fend off inflationary pressures. The reserve requirement ratio (the proportion of funds banks must keep as deposits at the PBC) was raised by 0.5 percentage points to 16% with effect from April 25th, following an earlier 50-basis-point increase on March 25th. On March 20th the PBC had also drained Rmb130bn (US$19bn) from the interbank market through repurchases and bill issues.
The government has also supported a continued strengthening of the renminbi against the US dollar, as part of a strategy to curb liquidity inflows through the trade surplus. In early April the renminbi reached a landmark by appreciating above Rmb7:US$1; on April 16th it was trading at Rmb6.99:US$1.
Outlook
Despite the headlines Chinese inflation is currently attracting, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the year-on-year rate of inflation to fall rapidly in the second half of 2008. The key factor will be a cyclical fall in pork prices from the high base in 2007, helped by a restocking of China's pig herds. However, surging global food prices are likely to mean that the deceleration in inflation will not be as swift or deep as we previously expected. We have consequently increased our inflation forecast for 2008 to 5.9% (from 5% previously).
Short-term grain price inflation remains to a large extent dependent on the weather, and there is a risk that a major drought in China could cause price growth to accelerate rapidly. In the longer term, a falling supply of agricultural land, water shortages, and rising fuel and fertiliser costs will put upward pressure on food prices. However, inflation in the cost of manufactures will remain low, owing to intense competition and massive investment. Inflation should slow further in 2009, averaging 3.6%, owing to improving agricultural supply.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Japan's Great Leap Backward
By Marc Goldstein
April 10, 2008
Tokyo — Japan’s stock markets are caught in a vicious cycle, a downward spiral of take-over fears and flagging stock values that politicians and regulators seem incapable of bringing to an end. Sadly, the biggest losers here are not those who play the market, but those Japanese households that are unable to rely on the markets to provide an adequate return on the pension-fund assets invested there.
Japan’s benchmark Topix index has fallen more than 25% over the past 12 months, compared to a near 5% drop in the S&P 500. Part of this decline can be explained by the pressure on Japanese earnings from the weak U.S. economy and the yen’s strength against the dollar, and by profit-taking by foreign investors.
But there are other factors at work as well.
In response to a series of (unsuccessful) hostile takeover attempts, Japanese companies have rushed to implement poison pills, rebuild cross-shareholdings, and otherwise protect themselves against even the possibility of a hostile acquisition. In the absence of a genuine market for corporate control and the attendant pressure on management, merger premiums still lag behind those in the U.S.—as do dividend payout ratios and returns on equity—meaning that the Japanese market offers neither developing country growth rates, nor developed country income. It is hardly surprising that foreign investors have been reducing their holdings of Japanese shares, and hardly surprising that Japanese investors have not been rushing to replace them.
As stock valuations plunge, companies find themselves even more vulnerable to an opportunistic takeover, which only increases their motivation to take defensive steps, which in turn drive away ordinary investors, perpetuating the cycle. In the U.S., poison pills designed to lessen a firm’s attractiveness are supposed to be used by target company boards as negotiating tools to win better terms from a would-be acquirer, or a white knight. But in Japan, where boards are still dominated by lifelong employees, pills have been used to delay such negotiations or avoid them completely. The reluctance of domestic investors to file lawsuits in such cases means that boards get away with blatant entrenchment.
In a sense, the return of cross-shareholdings—reversing 15 years of progress in unwinding such relationships—is even worse for the market than poison pills. As Japanese companies learned when the 1980s bubble burst, tying up corporate assets in the shares of a business partner is a risky strategy: By committing to hold such shares indefinitely, and vote them with management in all situations, corporate shareholders are denying themselves both a voice and an exit—a situation which is hardly conducive to maximizing the value of the investment. According to estimates by Japan’s Nikkei newspaper, the overall value of corporate shareholdings fell 30% in 2007-08, meaning that such holdings underperformed the Topix and the Nikkei 225. Yet out of fear of hostile takeovers, Japanese companies seem determined to ignore the lessons of the post-bubble years, and are continuing to buy shares. Mark-to-market accounting is forcing companies to take losses as the value of these holdings declines, and once again the falling profits and falling share prices reinforce each other in a vicious cycle.
But cross-shareholdings do more than put corporate assets at risk. They reduce liquidity by lowering the free float, and send a signal to the market that ordinary shareholders’ interests are not a priority. Owning shares in a customer or supplier is bad enough, but companies in Japan’s steel and paper industries are buying shares in companies that are ostensibly their competitors. Why should a fund manager buy shares in a company whose own executives would rather use spare cash to invest in a rival than to invest in their own business?
Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has jurisdiction over the pension system, but is unable to regulate corporate behavior that threatens the solvency of that system. The Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, meanwhile, claims to want to increase foreign investment in Japan, but has also been helping companies block any investments they’re not ready to accept. And addressing the market downturn seems far down on politicians’ list of priorities.
That leaves the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which could ameliorate the situation with stricter rules on free floats and concentration of ownership, and above all by requiring the appointment of independent directors to help protect shareholders’ interests. The TSE has historically been more attuned to the interests of issuers than those of investors, but if it truly wants to be one of the world’s leading markets, it will have to do more to ensure that the companies listed there are attractive investments. Japan’s pensioners and future pensioners have the most to gain from such a development.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Gold ends higher from 3-week low but seen vulnerable
By Frank Tang and Atul Prakash
NEW YORK/LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - Gold ended a tad higher on Friday, rebounding from three-week lows as a sharp drop in a gold-backed exchange-traded fund put a damper on bullion's initial rally on the back of surging crude oil.
Gold was expected to face downward pressure again after falling nearly 15 percent from last month's record high. Near-term sentiment had also turned bearish since gold broke its 100-day moving average of just above $900 an ounce this week, dealers said.
Spot metal fell as low as $877.60 an ounce and was last at 886.90/888.30 at 2:15 p.m. EDT (1815 GMT), against $885.25/886.45 in New York late on Thursday.
Gold futures for June delivery GCM8 on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange ended up 30 cents at $889.70 an ounce.
Analysts said bearish market sentiment was also evident from large withdrawals from exchange-traded funds. Gold held in New York-listed StreetTRACKS Gold Shares, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, fell about 50 tonnes to 591 tonnes -- a level last seen in November last year -- in the last two sessions.
"(ETF holdings decline) indicating continuing waning fund interest in the metal at a time when its performance failed to match positive background conditions," Jon Nadler, senior analyst of Kitco Bullion Dealers in Montreal, told clients in a note.
The dollar fell further against the euro and headed for its best monthly performance in 2-1/2 years against a basket of major currencies and rose further from this week's record lows versus the euro, boosted by improved sentiment on the U.S. economy.
A firmer dollar makes gold costlier for holders of other currencies and often lowers bullion demand. The metal is also generally seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 ended $2.46 higher at $118.52 a barrel.
"Firm oil is leading gold higher again and the euro is also enjoying a small rebound," said Tom Kendall, metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corp.
"June U.S. gold futures managed to bounce just ahead of key support at $877 and that may have given some comfort to bulls, but the near-term outlook is much less certain positive than it was a couple of weeks ago."
David Holmes, director of sales at Dresdner Kleinwort, said near-term sentiment in the bullion market was not very positive as concerns about the credit crisis had receded and some of the funds, which follow short-term trends, may sell gold.
GOLD VULNERABLE
Dresdner Kleinwort said in a report that when a market stopped rising despite positive fundamentals, investors should get out of their trading positions.
"Gold is likely to have already reached the year's high and to come under pressure particularly in H2. We thus recommend not only closing long positions in gold, but also selling gold short," it said.
In industry news, the Swiss National Bank does not plan gold sales beyond the programme to sell 250 tonnes announced last year, Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth said.
In other precious metals, platinum partly recovered after falling to a three-week low of $1,907 an ounce. It was last quoted at $1,944.50/1,964.50, still down from $1,961.50/1,971.50 late on Thursday. It hit a record high of $2,290 on March 4.
But precious metals consultancy GFMS Ltd said on Thursday that platinum may spike to a record high of $2,400 an ounce this year as the investment climate continued to be positive and fundamentals remained strong.
Silver was at $16.85/16.91, down from $16.68/16.78 an ounce, while spot palladium fell to $436/444 an ounce from $435/441 in the U.S. market late on Thursday.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
KL-S'pore bullet train derailed by high cost
April 22, 2008
PETALING JAYA: The proposed Kuala Lumpur-Singapore multi-billion ringgit bullet train project has been put on hold due to the high cost.
Economic Planning Unit director-general Datuk Seri Sulaiman Mahbob confirmed that the Government had shelved the project but refused to elaborate further.
“The Government will not go ahead with the project because the financial model submitted involves a significant cost to be borne by the Government,” he said when contacted.
He declined to reveal how much the Government would have to bear. He also refused to take further questions on the matter of the bullet train.
The RM8bil train, proposed by YTL Corp Bhd in 2006, was capable of travelling at 350kph and cutting the travelling time between the two cities to 90 minutes.
YTL managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh had earlier said that it was an environmentally friendly project and would save the Government “tens of billions of ringgit” in fuel subsidies in the long term.
Yeoh was reported to have said that the Government was supportive of the project.
A feasibility study was carried out last year but the Government said it also wanted to carry out a social impact study as the project required land acquisition.
The project was first proposed by YTL to then Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad in the late 1990s soon after the completion of the high-speed rail link between Kuala Lumpur and the KL International Airport. YTL owns half of the KL-KLIA link.
Dr Mahathir rejected the project because it was not suitable.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
中国问题： 世界经济危机爆发与我国应对策略
2008年04月23日 星期三
观点精炼:
• 金融市场的繁荣吸纳了全球过剩资本，通胀被长期隐匿在金融市场领域，各国央行行长被蒙蔽。
• 本轮经济增长的最大特征：金融市场繁荣全球化，区别于过去任何时期局部金融市场的繁荣。
• 创新的金融产品放大了全球经济风险，金融市场价格泡沫的破裂，过剩流动性倒灌产品市场，推高物价，抑制了全球消费需求。
• 在金融危机第一阶段，金融资产价格泡沫破裂引发信贷紧缩金融危机；在金融危机第二阶段，产品市场过剩加剧信贷资产恶化，信贷紧缩强化，金融危机加深。2008年3月以后，全球金融危机进入第二阶段。
• 当金融市场流动性枯竭时，各国货币当局的拯救金融市场的货币政策弹性归零，货币政策破产，产能过剩危机将席卷全世界。
• 本轮全球经济增长，除了个别地区因为战争和政治原因外，世界各国经济增长同步实现，需求过度扩张超过了自然自然资源环境承载能力，温室效应和全球变暖导致全球自然灾害频发，世界经济陷入史无前例的经济危机，其危害超过1929年经济危机。
• 国家应提前加强煤电供应资源配置，加强水资源调配，加强地质灾害监测，做好防灾减灾预警，在既定20亿元农业防灾减灾技术资金供应方面应进一步增大额度，再增加200亿元预算备用。
• 国内股指期货与创业板应当暂缓推出。
正文: 世界经济危机爆发与我国应对策略
经过了六年的繁荣，世界经济已走到了繁荣的尽头。
全球一体化是本轮经济繁荣的基础，生产要素在发达国家与新兴市场国家之间的对流配置推动了本轮经济大发展，除了个别地区因为战争和政治原因外，在发达国家资本与技术输出的推动下，世界各国经济同步增长。
在过去的几年里，全球信贷扩张前所未有地刺激了全球消费增长，极大地拉动了全球投资增长，投资增长又进一步推动了信贷扩张，货币扩张带动了直接融资市场繁荣，增大了货币供给乘数效应，更多的货币被创造，并溢入了不断创新的金融产品市场。
在全球金融自由化创新时代，不断创新的金融市场和产品市场相比较，能够在更大的范围内容纳过剩流动性，金融产品创新既不需要实体经济创新所必需的生产要素，也不需要实体经济创新所必要的时间，只要具备资本增值的要素，一个金融产品就会很快生产出来，并在短期内就会产生巨大的市场需求。当更多的金融产品被创造出来的时候，产品市场所创造的过剩资金就会被金融市场不断吸纳。
各国宽松货币政策创造出的过剩流动性不断被金融市场所吸纳，产品市场很难反映出内存的通胀，溢入金融市场的过剩流动性制造了金融市场领域内的通胀，金融资产价格被溢价高估。随着估价的不断升高，金融市场领域内投资投机需求日趋增强，进而推动全球金融市场进入了前所未有的繁荣时期。这是本轮经济增长的最大特征，区别于过去任何时期的局部金融市场繁荣。
在全球化经济新型经济增长模式下，各国央行行长遭受了人类经济发展史上最大的蒙蔽：以产品市场通胀为传统货币政策观察目标的央行保守守则已失去价值效用——不断创新的庞大而复杂的全球金融市场不断吸纳了产品市场溢出的过剩流动性，实物通胀被金融资产通胀所替代，实物通胀长期被隐匿。
产品市场与货币市场的均衡规律决定了货币政策供给的原则。货币不能无限制供应，过多的货币供应推动投资需求过度扩张，最终导致产品市场失衡，供大于求。为了均衡产品市场供求，各国货币当局必然减少货币供应。货币供应减少，金融市场流动性供给不足，金融资产价格泡沫破裂，被高估的金融资产价格将随着流动性的减少而跌损。而金融资产的跌损最终将导致为产品市场与金融市场提供货币资金的信贷资产减值，引发信贷紧缩，金融市场产生货币紧缩乘数效应，从而形成金融危机。
金融产品的创新被各国央行认定为化解、分散金融风险的产品而大加赞赏和支持，但被忽略的是，这些被视为化解分散风险的金融产品具有天然的风险聚合关联性，这些产品一方面可以分散市场风险，另一方面又能够相互传导风险，聚合并放大风险。当产品市场失衡，流动性供给降低时，缺少流动性支持的金融市场风险无法分散，反向聚合联动，引发金融市场危机。
金融资产价格泡沫破裂，金融资产贬值导致金融资产减持，金融市场长期吸纳的过剩流动性被迫溢出，过剩流动性从金融市场溢入产品市场，产品市场通胀凸现。产品市场通胀，生产成本上升，消费价格上升，全球消费需求下降，产品市场供过于求，酿成世界性产能过剩经济危机。
在金融危机向产能过剩危机转化过程中，为了缓解信贷紧缩，拯救金融市场，受金融危机影响严重的国家必然采取积极货币政策，增加金融市场流动性。流动性应增加，产品市场通胀加剧，产品市场库存增加，信贷不良资产增加，引致紧缩的信贷市场进一步紧缩，逆向再传导至金融市场，金融市场危机加重。这是一个反复循环的过程，直到金融市场流动性枯竭。当金融市场流动性枯竭时，各国货币当局的拯救金融市场的货币政策弹性归零，货币政策破产，产能过剩危机将席卷全世界。
世界性经济危机爆发时间的榷定
从2004年起，为了抑制生产过热，稳定市场供求关系，各国加紧了流动性管理，进入加息进程，货币供应开始相对减少。2006年末期，货币供应减少，对于长期吸纳了过剩流动性的世界金融市场而言，货币市场供求关系逆转，金融市场在过去流动性过剩时期形成的资产价格失去支撑。
美联储的17次加息，美国房地产市场在全球经济领域内首现疲软，2007年，在美国房价在下跌过程中，与房地产市场相关联的金融产品价格相应下跌，次级债危机爆发，西方发达国家信贷紧缩，金融产品资产价格贬值，全球金融市场陷入动荡，金融市场流动性开始溢出，产品市场出现通胀。
2007年前期，当通胀压力凸现时，被蒙蔽的各国央行行长意欲紧缩货币政策，但为时已晚矣。2007年后期，美国次级债危机的先行爆发导致发达国家央行行长陷入了两难境地，加息，有助于降低通胀压力，但加息也将会加剧全球信贷紧缩危机。减息，有助于缓解信贷紧缩危机，但却会加剧全球通胀。在不能两全的严峻的全球经济形势面前，各国央行行长的狐疑加深了世界经济的危机化进程。
美国不仅是全球消费的大国，同时也是全球最大的金融市场，美国成熟的金融市场不仅为美国为美国消费者提供了消费融资的平台，同时也为全世界过剩资本提供了融资投资的平台。美国的金融市场不仅吸纳了西方发达国家的剩余资本，同时也吸纳了发展中国家的剩余资本，尤其是新兴市场国家的过剩资本。美国金融市场上的任何波荡，都将影响到世界的每一个角落。如果美国金融市场陷入危机，不仅会引致美国经济衰退，同时也会殃及到世界经济。在以上国际经济背景下，美国发生次贷金融危机，全球金融市场迅速被动反应，尤其是与美国金融市场更为紧密的发达国家金融市场。
次贷债危机的发生，是对全球金融资产通胀、资产价格高估的最终反应，也是信贷扩张达到极度后反转的结果。维持美国金融市场的稳定，在更大程度上就会挽救西方发达国家陷入危难的金融市场，同时也有助于缓解新兴市场国家产能过剩危机。2007年后期在通胀压力日趋严重，增加流动性放大全球通胀风险的经济条件下，西方发达国家头顶通胀压力，被迫在美国次贷危机发生后联手采取了增加市场流动性行动。对于美国而言，金融市场的稳定，不仅关系到全球金融市场本身，更重要的是关系到美国消费融资，金融市场崩溃，美国经济依赖融资体系建立的经济增长模式将彻底崩溃，美国将经济将陷入深度危机，因此，在全球央行联手稳定金融市场的过程中，尽管其他发达国家行动犹豫而迟缓，但美国政府及美联储在这方面没有丝毫犹豫余地。
在美元主导的全球货币体系下，美联储增加流动性拯救金融市场每一轮的行为，都会加剧全球通胀。 2008年，美联储的大规模注资和紧急降息行为已对全球产品市场造成了以上态势。美元的持续贬值，金融资产大规模减持，大量流动性从金融市场不断溢出，进入产品市场，推动石油及大宗商品价格，增加了全球生产成本，抑制了世界消费需求，尤其是美国及其他发达国家的消费需求。在金融资产价格贬值重估时期，继续增加流动性无异于扭曲全球市场价格调整机制，造成市场价格失灵，加深市场危机。
在金融危机第一阶段，金融资产价格泡沫破裂引发信贷紧缩金融危机；在金融危机第二阶段，产品市场过剩引发信贷资产恶化，引致金融危机深化。2008年3月以后，全球金融危机进入第二阶段。
在金融危机第二阶段，产品市场通胀逆作用于金融市场：通胀增强抑制消费，产品市场库存增加，流动性减少，进而引致紧缩的信贷资产不良化，紧缩的信贷市场更加紧缩，进而化解了各国注资增加金融市场流动性拯救金融市场的努力，金融危机与产能过剩危机相互推动并相互转化。伴随着金融资产减值，伴随着产能过剩，世界性经济危机已经展现。2008年3月，美国第四季度以及近期的经济增长的数据已表明，美国经济陷入衰退已无疑问，笔者预计局部世界经济危机将于4月至5月期间爆发。受认识时滞影响，对于以上判断可能需要进一步的确认：在2008年6月中下旬，随着全球主要经济发展体美国、日本等国经济数据的披露，以上经济危机爆发时间的确定应当毫无疑问。
经过多次紧急降息和大规模注资，美元贬值已将整个世界经济带入了经济危机通道。美元贬值不仅对我国经济安全造成危害，同时也导致欧元区经济以及日本经济受到损害，欧元及日元升值，将导致德国和日本这两个出口型国家经济陷入衰退，这些发达国家经济的衰退和衰退的美国经济将阻滞依赖外需增长的新兴市场国家经济发展，从而带动整个世界经济陷入经济危机进程。笔者估算，美联储基金利率大概在二季度末降至1%以下。如果是这样，在未来的90日内，世界金融市场将陷入崩溃：美元的泛滥不仅使得各国美元外汇储备大幅贬值，同时也将进一步推动美元结算价格体系崩溃，一些国家开始大量抛售美元储备资产，美国金融市场金融产品大幅减持，各国资金避险逃离，依赖美元体系和金融市场维持经济运行的美国经济彻底陷入衰退。我国经济遭受冲击的时间预计在2008年6月中旬以后。美国经济的衰退将整个世界经济区隔化，2009年，各国将进入自我救赎阶段，世界经济陷入了黑暗的经济危机之中，预计这场危机从衰退到复苏至少持续5年。在这场危机持续过程中，我们有可能看到一些国家政府的倒台，也可能看到个别国家转嫁经济危机的对外战争。
需要指出的是，2007年，全球经济到达了史无前例的共同繁荣，世界经济可持续增长已无潜力可续。在长达六年的世界性经济增长过程中，过度采掘、开发、排放导致自然环境承载能力下降，全球生态环境恶化，气候变暖，恶劣的气候环境将导致全球粮食生产环境恶化。自然灾害的频发并不会因为世界性经济危机的爆发而止步，相反地，在世界经济危机爆发过程中，自然灾害将加深增加这场危机的严重性和时间上的持续性，在我国，除了气象灾害外，地质灾害对经济的影响也不可低估。本世纪初所发生的这场经济危机将超过任何一个历史时期，其中既有经济因素，也有自然因素，是一场“天灾人祸”的世界性经济危机。
我国应对经济危机的策略
在世界性经济危机爆发的时期，我国经济正面临着严峻形势。尽管国内经济学界主观地看好我国经济基本面，但笔者不敢苟同。笔者认为，我国面临的问题可能比美国面临的经济问题更为严重：
一、在美元持续贬值的经济环境下，我国正面临着输入型通胀和输出型通胀并存的尴尬处境：作为全球生产大国，一方面，能源和初级产品的巨大需求依赖于国际市场，另一方面，内需不足，产能过剩产品依赖于国际市场空间，巨量产品出口导致国内基础货币继续增加，助动国内物价上涨。产品进出环流之间形成的通胀将已导致国内经济结构扭曲达到极限。
二、生产成本上升和居高的通胀不仅会挤压生产企业的利润空间，降低生产效能，同时也会削弱已经极度疲羸的国内消费需求，导致供求失衡，酿成产能过剩经济危机。
三、在全球金融动荡和美国经济衰退的经济环境下，更多国际避险游资将会选择我国和其他新兴市场国家作为避险套利的投机目标地。人民币币值低估，各种渠道流入的国际避险资金进一步增强了我国通胀压力，宏观经济调控难度增大。 低位的股市和彷徨中的房市将有可能成为国际避险资本最后进行套利博弈的战场，国际避险资本将有可能利用国内经济调控政策制造机会并炮制国内金融危机。
四、金融危机与产能过剩危机同时潜伏，任何不当的经济调整行为有可能引致经济在短期内恶性震荡，严重时可能崩溃。
2007年8月17日，笔者在《全球金融危正在叩击中国经济安全大门》一文指出，次级债危机并不是一场金融危机，而是一场史无前例的经济危机，并判言将在三个月内影响国内证券市场。针对国内大部分经济学家主张将过剩流动性导入资本市场的看法，笔者认为是危险的，现在，过度推高股指泡沫的危险已在股市中曝露。同年10月16日，随着全球金融动荡，国内股市泡沫破裂，在紧缩货币政策的影响下开始了其价值重估历程，跌幅之大，已严重伤害了国内股民基民投资感情，酿成市场恐惧。在《2008年的中国宏观经济政策暨城市房地产调控研究报告》，笔者建议运用价格工具控制信贷投放，通过贷款加息抑制信贷扩张，但这一建议被行政性信贷规模“窗口指导”所替代。2008年一季度的事实证明，运用行政手段调控信贷扩张绩效并不明显，有报道说，部分银行已在一季度用完上半年信贷额度。在美联储紧急降息的经济环境下，我国依赖货币政策价格工具抑制信贷扩张，减轻通胀压力的最优时机已逝去。在《2008年的中国宏观经济政策暨城市房地产调控研究报告》第二部分笔者指出，人民币升值并不能调整国内经济结构，建议只能小幅升值。但这一建议被主张加大人民币升值以降低通胀的主流经济学观点替代，人民币币值在一季度内加快，如不改变现行政策，有可能在二季度突破10%。人民币升值加速，除了更多地吸入国际热钱外，增大通胀风险、导致金融危机外，并不能降低通胀，也无助于经济结构调整，美元贬值形成的全球通胀并非人民币升值所能够化解的。
在国际经济走向衰退瞬间，受信贷扩张惯性推动，我国经济仍面临过热的风险，对于外需依赖度很高的我国而言，经济硬着陆风险已经现实化。2008年前三个月内美元的大幅贬值已导致我国货币政策失灵，数量工具的运用已不能减轻流动性进一步泛滥，利率、汇率工具也丧失了减轻通胀压力的作用。继续运用利率与汇率工具，将会进一步吸引国际套利资本流入，2008年的前两个月，相关经济数据已经表明这一事实客观存在，并将继续恶性流入。在货币政策失灵的情况下，为了维护国内经济安全，笔者建议国家以财政政策和产业政策调整为主，以紧缩货币政策为辅，加速进行以下经济调控：
一、以贸易政策与管制措施替代人民币汇率升值调控对外贸易，弱化人民币升值预期，减轻贸易顺差和热钱流入，缓解国内通货膨胀压力。出口贸易方面，对于国内短缺产品、产能过剩程度较轻产品以及“两高一资”产品，国家应当综合运用提高关税、降低或取消出口退税以及运用出口配额或许可等手段限制或禁止出口；进口贸易方面，对于能源、生产原料和国内短缺产品等贸易产品，国家应当采取降低关税，提供财政补贴等手段，鼓励进口；必要时，国家可采用双汇率制补充调整，出口采取固定汇率制度，进口继续使用当前汇率制度。通过以上手段，将人民币升值范围控制在最小的浮动范围之内，避免输入型通胀与输出型通胀互动助长。在降低人民币升值预期的同时，进一步运用货币政策与财政政策压低并稳定资产价格，挤出房价泡沫，稳定国内股市，正确运用舆论导向，引导鼓励国内市场投资者进行长期投资，规避国际热钱爆炒境内资产，制造资产泡沫危害国家经济安全。以上经济措施：第一、可以减轻贸易顺差，减少国际贸易摩擦；第二、减轻国际物价向国内传导压力，缓解国内通胀压力；第三、将人民币升值范围控制在最小的浮动范围之内，弱化人民币升值预期，减少或阻止短期国际避险资本流入国内；第四、压制输出输入混合型通胀，取消依靠增加薪酬和保障性支付抵御通胀的错误做法，防止劳动力成本上升助长通胀；第五、压制资产价格，倒逼国际热钱流出，增强国内货币政策弹性。
二、坚持“有区别的从紧货币政策”，坚持“有区别的产业结构”调整政策，坚持“有区别的财政政策”，加大财政政策与产业政策扶持与限制力度。加强信贷规模控制，价格工具与数量工具混合使用，加大窗口监管力度，对于限制类产业，坚决限制贷款，对于产能过剩的产业，可使用差别利率，提高贷款利率，限制生产能力，对于扶持类产业，加大优惠利率幅度。在储蓄高居不下的经济环境下，有区别的经济调控政策应当长期坚持，始终不渝。
三、积极有序推进对外开放，充分利用国际经济衰退、全球生产要素规避国际经济风险、重新进行资源配置的机会，引进先进的国际生化信息技术、尖端制造技术、环保节能技术、先进农业生产技术以及先进国际服务行业，推动国内产业升级，积极创造就业新机会。
四、推动产业西进，促进区域经济平衡发展。随着东部产业的饱和与竞争成本的增加，国内部分产业面临向成本低洼的中西部转移态势。在产业调整转移时期，国家应当制定严格的产业西进计划和严格的西部环境保护政策，对于高耗能、高污染、高排放产业，国家应当禁止西进。国内西部多为国内水源涵养地和生态地，西北部生态环境更为脆弱，产业西进更应当注重高科技和生态环保产业的转移，对于部分无污染、无排放的加工制造业，也可以向西部转移。在税收、利率和土地方面，国家应给于更大的政策优惠。在对外开放方面，国际生化信息技术、尖端制造技术、环保节能技术、先进农业生产技术的引进，国家应当优先考虑西部。在产业西进过程中，对于西部地区各级政府违反产业西进计划和西部环境保护政策的招商行为，国家应当加大查处力度，严肃查究负有领导责任的官员。
五、缩减各级政府开支，节约财政资源。在全球经济风险调整时期，国内产业面临产业升级，部分产业面临淘汰，预计在2009年大量的失业人员需要政府投入更多的资金进行技能升级培训和扶困救济。国家应制定严格的缩减政府开支计划，暂缓政府自利行为（包括并不限于政府办公基建、办公设备设施、交通工具购置及使用等）和减少浪费行为（包括并不限于各种政府庆典、公款招待、公款考察、旅游性会议等）。对于违反规定的，国家课以严处。
六、除城际交通基础设施外，减少各级政府自主投资项目，尤其是政府形象工程应当严格禁止。将更多的政府资金用于推动产业升级，避免政府投资项目拉动国内能源和初级产品价格上涨。将有限的财政资源以税收优惠方式或财政补贴方式尽量用于民间产业升级，补偿资源与生态环境平衡，促进社会就业，减轻地方各级政府投资项目驱动的国内通胀压。
七、尽快出台减少不合理行政性收费政策，减轻企业负担和个人负担（如城市内向个人机动车征收的不合理费用等），增强企业盈利剩余，增强社会消费能力。
八、降低高等院校教育收费，降低电信通讯资费、取消五花八门消费者不明不白的各种通讯套餐资费，降低民用电费，增强被挤占的民众消费能力。近年来，在这些领域，尤其是国有垄断行业领域，生产成本过高，离润较低或者出现亏损不是仅仅是因为生产资料价格问题，而是国有企业员工与管理人与薪酬、福利待遇（尤其是隐性福利和隐性收入）过高侵蚀了利润。这既不利于缩小贫富差距，同时也不利于推动内需。深化教育体制改革，加快技能教育，培养实用型人才，保障高等院校毕业生择业能力，促进就业。
九、2008年至2010年期间，对于我国而言，农业建设应当成为稳定经济环境的重点，除了加大农业投资和农业补贴外，笔者在这里需要特别提示一点，2008年，受拉尼娜影响，国内气候极不稳定，五月份之前（在2007年9月撰写的《温和通胀还是恶性通胀》一文中，笔者曾指出，“随着今年秋雨灾害延伸，以及拉尼娜现象造成的冬季严寒，国内受灾面可能会进一步加大，”但并未引起重视），气温变动较常年异常，温差变化甚大，不利于农作物生长，五月份之后，影响我国的西太平洋副热带高气压将出现异常，国内大部分地区可能面临四十年以来的高温干旱，旱灾将有可能导致夏粮秋粮减产，沿海地区和内陆局部地区可能会出现强对流天气，涝灾会严重影响工农业生产和民众生活，特别需要注意的是，由于气候变化极度，地质灾害可能多于往年。为了做好防汛抗旱、防灾减灾准备，国家应提前加强煤电供应资源配置，加强水资源调配，加强地质灾害监测，做好防灾减灾预警，在既定20亿元农业防灾减灾技术资金供应方面应进一步增大额度，再增加200亿元预算。粮食生产不仅事关通胀，而且也在某种程度上关联到2008年以后国内政局稳定。2008年2月3日，笔者在《虚高房价还能走多远》文中指出，“在2008年，受气候影响，国内气象呈现出春冻夏旱秋涝，预计国内通胀上半年在7—9%之间，全年通胀预计不会低于7%。”如果今年粮食减产，2009年国内通胀率有可能会突破两位数，其影响将会长期存在。
十、做好楼市与股市宏观调控，加大金融监管刚性，加紧完善金融制度，规避突发经济风险。
和2008年相比较，2009年国内经济困局可能比今年更为严峻。2009年中后期，如果财政资金节余充裕，国内经济滑落后，国家可适时运用财政政策，增加公共财政投资，拉动需求，促进就业，稳定国内经济形势。
股市与楼市经济调控
2007年末期，国内股市在国际金融环境与国内从紧货币政策的影响下，已出现降温，有助于缓解过剩流动性压力，有利于增强货币政策弹性，但是楼市的降温尚未实现。
近年来，境外各类资金通过各种途径持续流入，尤其次贷危机发生以来，已出现加快流入的迹象。在国内利率较高，人民币升值加速、金融资产估值仍然偏高，房价居高不下时期，境内热钱不退，境外热钱涌入，说明存在国内资产将成为热钱投机的对象。近期股市的频繁波动和呼吁救市的声音能够反映出这一问题的严重性，央行在3月18日宣布提高0.5%的准备金率，对于下行的股市而言，应当存在向下压力，但次日股指不跌反涨，在不断砸盘的同时投资机构主动救市的行为说明股市存在一定的逼宫行为。在股市砸盘行为背后，境外资金正在备战抄底投机。在4800下方，正在形成的巨大缺口和创业板或者股指期货推出已为热钱抄底构筑了足够的投机套利空间，创业板或者股指期货提一旦推出，多市场热钱抄底炒作格局将形成。随着热钱的抄底，股市的井喷将对楼市形成联动，虚高的房价将在短期内被推之极度，届时，东南亚金融危机大陆版将有可能在十年后重演。
为了防止金融危机爆发，国家应当暂缓创业板与股指期货的推出。在无热钱流入并在境内聚合的情况下，创业板或股指期货将会对主板市场形成资金分流，不利于市场的稳定。在境内聚集大量热钱的环境下，这两个市场中任何一个的推出都将形成多市场低成本套利空间，并将不断吸引国际避险资金流入，导致金融环境短期内恶化，国内从紧货币政策破产。
2007年底以来，从紧货币政策已对国内房价产生一定影响，但虚高的房价的估值水平并没有显著回归。2007年9月，第二套住房信贷政策的推出后，短期内在一线二线尖兵城市，房屋成交最大量剧降了近六成，这说明投资需求与投机需求占市场总需求的比例，市场上所谓的刚性需求由此可见。从国内房价估值水平来看，至少被高估了30%，这一点可以从全国房价近两年增长的速度中获得求证，就连个别中小城市（县镇），房价累计增长超过了40%。维持房价继续增长，显然不利于经济稳定。有学者担心降低房价会对银行信贷资产造成巨大危害，笔者认为，这种担心是必要的，但却是错误的：其一、即便房价下跌30%，对于对于国内金融机构造成的资产损失也是微薄的；其二、和房价下跌相比较，房价上涨对银行业资产的危害更大，国内经济内外失衡已导致国内信贷在房地产领域无法继续扩张。继续扩张，风险损害将无法估量，金融机构将大量破产，央行数据表明，以房地产为担保的信贷规模已占国内信贷的50%；其三，国内金融的稳定完全取决于国内风险调整的节奏，如果国内经济风险调整速度快于国际经济风险调整，房价的回落将会控制在一定水平，如果慢于国际经济调整，那么国内经济陷入危机的深度，房价的大幅崩塌只是一个迟早的问题。在当前国际经济陷入经济危机前期，国家应当加大房地产调控力度，引导房价尽快回落，房价回归30%，将扩大相应的消费需求，有利于经济结构优化。
多层次资本市场需要发展，这是不可改变的既定方针，也是国内金融市场发展的方向，但要看时机。笔者认为，加强并不断完善现有金融监管是防范当前金融风险的关键。2006年以来，大量违规信贷资金流入股市导致了资产价格膨胀，上市公司、上市公司大股东、券商、基金经理利用内幕信息操纵市场，在二级市场纵马圈钱，违法违规但被查处的有几何？每一轮的市场过热都存在这样或那样类似的问题，说明金融监管力度不足，金融基础制度不完善。在金融监管制度不完善的市场环境下，谁能保障股指期货与创业板推出后不出类似的问题，尤其在热钱不断流入，储蓄居高，信贷扩张需求旺盛的特殊时期。
国家应当容许金融机构曝露风险。只有曝露出资产的风险损失，才能够让不法违规资金暴露，让金融领域证券市场领域内的败德、违法、违规人员受到应有的处罚，也才能够对金融机构起到风险的警示效用，从而有助于金融机构完善内控机制，建立健全金融风险识别与控制机制。国家不能够等到金融风险损失彻底曝露后由公共财政买单，这样做的后果是，中国的金融机构没有国际市场生存竞争能力，永远是一个养不大的吃奶孩子，一旦断奶，必然破产无疑。
在这场世界性经济危机爆发过程中，我国的金融机构可能在2008年后期及以后一段时间内出现不良资产，信贷市场将会自发紧缩，这为国内资本市场多层次建设将提供了机会，笔者建议创业板和股指期货在2009年中后期可适时推出。
在降低房价的过程中，如果房价跌幅较大，国家可运用特别方式处置减值不良房产，稳定市场，缓解信贷机构损失。
作者单位/甘肃太平洋律师事务所
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
Man dies after using sex drug
April 25, 2008
Singapore - A second man has died after taking sexual enhancement pills laced with high amounts of a drug intended for diabetics, news reports said on Saturday.
The 50-year-old Singaporean had been hospitalised in a coma after taking fake Cialis pills, one of four products found to have the drug glibenclamide at levels of up to five times the maximum therapeutic dosage, The Straits Times said.
The others were identified by the Health Sciences Authority (HSA) as Power 1, Walnut, Santi Bovine Penis Erecting Capsule and Zhong Hua Niu Bian.
Five other men are seriously ill, the report said. One has been left brain-damaged after a stroke. Another remains unresponsive after emerging from a coma.
Two others are in comas, while another has brain damage.
While aware of the dangers, many patients continue taking the pills since they have not suffered any ill effects and believe they will not in the future, said Chan Cheng Leng, assistant director of the HSA's pharmacovigilance, communications and research division.
All illegal drugs are potentially dangerous since there is no quality control, she noted.
Since January, there have been 35 confirmed and 70 suspected cases of adverse drug reactions to illegal sexual enhancement drugs in men aged 21 to 97.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
China Should Offer Tax Breaks for Textile Exports, Planner Says
By Li Yanping
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- China may need to resume tax incentives for textiles exporters after the yuan's appreciation crimped profits and curbed production, an official with the top economic planning agency said.
``Many of those companies are on the verge of shutting down,'' Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a trade conference in Beijing today. ``We should consider resuming some tax incentives to help them survive.''
Premier Wen Jiabao wants to narrow a record trade surplus that is flooding the economy with cash and adding to the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves. The government last year reduced rebates on exports including textiles, toys and steel products as part of an effort to lower energy consumption and ease trade discord with the U.S. and Europe.
The strengthening yuan and weaker demand in the U.S., Europe and Japan, China's largest trade partners, curbed export growth of toys, textiles, shoes and garments in the first quarter, Zhang said. China won't further cut rebates in sectors that create a lot of employment, he said.
``Some exporters are idling half or even all of their production this year because they couldn't sign contracts while they are uncertain about how fast the yuan will rise,'' Zhang said. ``We should continue to support labor-intensive manufacturing to help boost jobs and farmers' income.''
The yuan, also called the renminbi, has strengthened four percent against the U.S. dollar so far this year, after gaining 7 percent in 2007, according to Bloomberg data.
Currency Losses
About 90 percent of Chinese exporters are paid in dollars, and a lack of hedging tools leave them vulnerable to currency losses, Fu Ziying, vice minister of commerce, said at the same conference today.
``As global demand shrinks further, the room is diminishing for exporters to raise prices in order to ease pressure from the yuan's appreciation,'' Fu said.
China aims to maintain 15 percent growth in the total value of exports and imports in 2008, Zhang said.
The government should take measures to ``stabilize'' investor expectations for the yuan's appreciation, Zhang added, without elaborating.
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
任何天气
原唱：张柏芝
作曲：吴国敬
作词：李玟
你根本不须担心这世间怎想你
其实我说你已经够完美
情人每次刻意地回避
明白你眼里的忧与喜
我很清楚世间终于有天欣赏你
期望你信我我总有道理
无人会这一世站原地
如若想飞更不可泄气
* 全情投入来爱你
而无论任何天气
一起如阳光变骤雨
担当一位爱人
亦担当好一个知己
全情投入来爱你
而无论任何天气
一起连人生也绝美
花些心机再营造惊喜
若深爱不舍不弃 *
你知不知我可供给你一些朝气
回望我每次也总看着你
全凭爱最苦也是甜味
烦事可不可一起处理
repeat *
Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008
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