0234 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup cuts Singapore corporates’ target prices, warns STI could hit 2700 before recovering. Says stock market weakness could persist for some time; “a history of past pullbacks in the market which were accompanied by an economic slowdown shows that the Singapore market consolidated for at least a year.” Advises investors to stay defensive, focus on earnings visibility, sensible valuations, and attractive dividend yields. Blue-chip target price cuts as follows: CapitaLand (C31.SG) cut to S$5.44 from S$7.00, CapitaMall Trust (C38U.SG) cut to S$3.67 from S$3.97, City Developments (C09.SG) cut to S$13.41 from S$15.90, DBS (D05.SG) cut to S$18.10 from S$25.50, OCBC (O39.SG) cut to S$8.00 from S$9.75, SGX (S68.SG) cut to S$6.45 from S$11.22; SIA Engineering (S59.SG) cut to S$4.97 from S$5.78; UOB (U11.SG) cut to S$18.10 from S$24.00.(KIG)
Few Americans have heard of credit default swaps, arcane financial instruments invented by Wall Street about a decade ago. But if the economy keeps slowing, credit default swaps, like subprime mortgages, may become a household term.
Credit default swaps form a large but obscure market that will be put to its first big test as a looming economic downturn strains companies’ finances. Like a homeowner’s policy that insures against a flood or fire, these instruments are intended to cover losses to banks and bondholders when companies fail to pay their debts.
The market for these securities is enormous. Since 2000, it has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $45.5 trillion — roughly twice the size of the entire United States stock market.
No one knows how troubled the credit swaps market is, because, like the now-distressed market for subprime mortgage securities, it is unregulated. But because swaps have proliferated so rapidly, experts say that a hiccup in this market could set off a chain reaction of losses at financial institutions, making it even harder for borrowers to get loans that grease economic activity.
It is entirely possible that this market can withstand a big jump in corporate defaults, if it comes. But an inkling of trouble emerged in a recent report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a federal banking regulator. It warned that a significant increase in trading in swaps during the third quarter of last year “put a strain on processing systems” used by banks to handle these trades and make sure they match up.
And last week, the American International Group said that it had incorrectly valued some of the swaps it had written and that sharp declines in some of these instruments had translated to $3.6 billion more in losses than the company had previously estimated. Its stock dropped 12 percent on the news but edged up in the days after.
A.I.G. says it expects to file its year-end financial statements on time by the end of this month with appropriate valuations.
Placing accurate values on these contracts is just one of the uncertainties facing the big banks, insurance companies and hedge funds that create and trade these instruments.
In a credit default swap, two parties enter a private contract in which the buyer of protection agrees to pay the seller premiums over a set period of time; the seller pays only if a particular credit crisis occurs, like a default. These instruments can be sold, on either end of the contract, by the insurer or the insured.
But during the credit market upheaval in August, 14 percent of trades in these contracts were unconfirmed, meaning one of the parties in the resale transaction was unidentified in trade documents and remained unknown 30 days later. In December, that number stood at 13 percent. Because these trades are unregulated, there is no requirement that all parties to a contract be told when it is sold.
As investors who have purchased such swaps try to cash them in, they may have trouble tracking down who is supposed to pay their claims.
“This is just a giant insurance industry that is underregulated and not very well reserved for and does not have very good standards as a result,” said Michael A. J. Farrell, chief executive of Annaly Capital Management in New York. “I think unregulated markets that overshadow, in terms of size, the regulated ones are a real question mark.”
Because these contracts are sold and resold among financial institutions, an original buyer may not know that a new, potentially weaker entity has taken over the obligation to pay a claim.
In late 2005, at the urging of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, market participants agreed to advise their trading partners in a swap when they assigned contracts to others. But it is unclear how closely participants adhere to this practice.
It would be as if homeowners, facing losses after a hurricane, could not identify the insurance companies to pay on their claims. Or, if they could, they discovered that their insurer had transferred the policy to another company that could not cover the claim.
Credit default swaps were invented by major banks in the mid-1990s as a way to offset risk in their lending or bond portfolios. At the outset, each contract was different, volume in the market was small and participants knew whom they were dealing with.
Years of a healthy economy and few corporate defaults led many banks to write more credit insurance, finding it a low-risk way to earn income because failures were few. Speculators have also flooded into the credit insurance market recently because these securities make it easier to bet on the health of a company than using corporate bonds.
Both factors have resulted in a market of credit swaps that now far exceeds the face value of corporate bonds underlying it. Commercial banks are among the biggest participants — at the end of the third quarter of 2007, the top 25 banks held credit default swaps, both as insurers and insured, worth $14 trillion, the currency office said, up $2 trillion from the previous quarter.
JPMorgan Chase, with $7.8 trillion, is the largest player; Citibank and Bank of America are behind it with $3 trillion and $1.6 trillion respectively.
But many speculators, particularly hedge funds, have flocked to these instruments to bet on a company failure easily. Before the insurance was developed, such a bet would require selling short a corporation’s bond and going into the market to borrow it to supply to the buyer.
The market’s popularity raises the possibility that undercapitalized participants could have trouble paying their obligations.
“The theme had been that derivatives are an instrument that helps diversify risk and stabilize risk-taking,” said Henry Kaufman, the economist at Henry Kaufman & Company in New York and an authority on the ways of Wall Street. “My own view of that has always been highly questionable — those instruments also encourage significant risk-taking and looking at risk modestly rather than incisively.”
Officials at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a trade group, say they are confident that the market will stand up, even under stress.
“During the volatility we have seen in the last eight months, credit default swaps continue to trade, unlike other parts of the credit market that have shut down,” said Robert G. Pickel, chief executive of the association. “Even if we have a series of credit events at the same time, we have the processes in place to enable the market to deliver.”
Such credit problems have been rare recently. The default rate among high-yield junk bonds fell to 0.9 percent in December, a record low.
But financial history is rife with examples of market breakdowns that followed the creation of complex securities. Financial innovation often gets ahead of the mechanics necessary to track trades or regulators’ ability to monitor the market for safety and soundness.
The market for default insurance, like the subprime mortgage securities market, is a product of good economic times and has boomed in recent years. In 2000, $900 billion of credit insurance contracts changed hands. Since then, the face value of the contracts outstanding has doubled every year as new contracts have been written. In the first six months of 2007, the figure rose 75 percent; the market now dwarfs the value of United States Treasuries outstanding.
Roughly one-third of the credit default swaps provided insurance against a default by a specific corporate debt issuer in 2006, according to the British Bankers’ Association. Around 30 percent of the contracts were written against indexes representing baskets of debt from numerous issuers.
But 16 percent were created to protect holders of collateralized debt obligations, complex pools of bonds that have recently experienced problems because of mortgage holdings.
There is no exchange where these insurance contracts trade, and their prices are not reported to the public. Because of this, institutions typically value them based on computer models rather than prices set by the market.
Neither are the participants overseen by regulators verifying that the parties to the transactions can meet their obligations.
The potential for problems in sizing up the financial health of buyers of these securities leads to questions about how these insurance contracts are being valued on banks’ books. A bank that has bought protection to cover its corporate bond exposure thinks it is hedged and therefore does not write off paper losses it may incur on those bond holdings. If the party who sold the insurance cannot pay on its claim in the event of a default, however, the bank’s losses would have to be reflected on its books.
Investors are already reeling from the recognition that major banks inaccurately estimated losses from the mortgage debacle. If further write-downs emerge as a result of hedges that did not work, investor confidence could take another dive.
To be sure, the $45 trillion in credit default swaps is not an exact reflection of what would be lost or won if all the underlying securities defaulted. That figure is impossible to pinpoint since the amounts that are recovered in default situations vary.
But one of the challenges facing participants in the credit default swap market is that the market value amount of the contracts outstanding far exceeds the $5.7 trillion of the corporate bonds whose defaults the swaps were created to protect against.
To the uninitiated trying to understand this complex market, its size might initially seem a comfort, as if there were far more insurance covering the bonds than could ever be needed. But because each contract must be settled between buyer and seller if a default occurs, this imbalance can present a problem.
Typically, settling the agreements has required the delivery of defaulted bonds if the insurance buyer wants to be fully covered. If the insurance contracts exceed the bonds that are available for delivery, problems arise.
For example, when Delphi, the auto parts maker, filed for bankruptcy in October 2005, the credit default swaps on the company’s debt exceeded the value of underlying bonds tenfold. Buyers of credit insurance scrambled to buy the bonds, driving up their price to around 70 cents on the dollar, a startlingly high value for defaulted debt.
Market participants worked out an auction system where settlements of Delphi contracts could be made even if the bonds could not be physically delivered. This arrangement was done at just over 36 cents on the dollar; so buyers of protection on Delphi who did not have the bonds received $366.25 for every $1,000 in coverage they had bought. Had they been valuing their Delphi insurance coverage at $1,000 per bond, they would have had to write off that position by $633.75 per $1,000 bond.
That is why the valuation of these contracts is of such concern to some participants.
As with other securities that trade privately and by appointment, assigning values to credit default swaps is highly subjective. So some on Wall Street wonder how much of the paper gains generated in these instruments by firms and hedge funds last year will turn out to be illusory when they try to cash them in.
“The insurance business is very difficult to quantify risk in,” said Mr. Farrell of Annaly Capital Management. “You have to really read the contract to make sure you are covered. That is going to be the test of the market this year. As defaults kick in and as these events unfold, you are going to find out who has managed this well.”
Allco Finance has delayed its day of reckoning again, announcing this morning that its first half results have been delayed indefinitely.
The aircraft leasing, shipping, property and funds management empire ia bout to reveal to investors, analysts and the media the full extent of the crisis - both financial and reputational - that has swirled around the group since its shares went into free fall from mid-December.
The latest delay to Allco's long-awaited half yearly results follows the sudden cancellation of their announcement on Friday. The announcement will give company founder and execcutive chairman David Coe his first public opportunity to explain how Allco intends to get out of its current predicament.
Analysts have previously indicated that Allco would probably turn in net profits of around $120 million for the half year to the end of December - a period that covered the fall-out of the global credit crisis which has made life so difficult for those companies like AFG that depend on debt to finance their businesses.
But most of the emphasis - and the questions - will focus on Allco's immediate future, its plans to reduce its mountain of debt and what it will have to sell if it is to save itself.
Macquarie Group, private equity firm Texas Pacific and Babcock & Brown are believed to have explored informal bids for parts or all of Allco. Allco's advisers, Caliburn Partnership, have opened a data room to allow potential purchasers to get a clearer financial picture of its assets.
The company is also having to work closely with corporate solvency and restructuring specialist Ferrier Hodgson which was appointed last week by the Commonwealth Bank in a move aimed at ensuring that Allco was able to meet its financing commitments.
The Commonwealth's chief executive, Ralph Norris, alluded to the move in a TV interview yesterday without naming either Allco or Centro, which is another big debtor to the bank now being closely monitored.
"We have provided for those particular corporates who are not in as strong position as they were. But I have to say that none of them have defaulted at this point and they are servicing their debt as per their arrangements."
A spokesman for Allco was unable to comment on the company's financial situation yesterday.
At the same time Allco is also said to be looking to get out of its most recent deal, agreed in December, that involved the $1.67 billion acquisition of 29 power stations in the US with its joint venture partner, the Australian super fund investor Industry Funds Management.
Allco's shares are expected to come out of suspension as early as today after being placed in a halt last Monday at $3.05.
The stock dropped sharply in January after it was disclosed that Allco's senior executives, including Mr Coe, had been the subject of margin calls which required the forced sale of shares in the main company.
SYDNEY: Investments in Australia by foreign state-owned wealth funds will face close scrutiny, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Monday, in the wake of China's move into mining giant Rio Tinto.
While stressing that he was not commenting specifically on "current moves on the part of particular companies," Rudd said he wanted to talk to Beijing's leaders about China's future plans for investment in resources.
"How do we fashion this long-term energy and resource relationship between our two countries?" he asked in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
"China does depend on reliable sources of supply from Australia in a whole range of commodity areas.
"This will continue into the future and what I want to talk to the Chinese leadership about is, what's their long-term strategy and what are this country's long-term strategic interests as well."
China's insatiable hunger for resources to fuel its rapidly-growing economy has driven a mining-backed boom in Australia in recent years.
State-owned aluminium giant Chinalco, acting with US-based Alcoa Inc, bought 12 percent of the London-listed shares of Rio Tinto, the world's third-biggest miner, for 14 billion US dollars in a sharemarket raid earlier this month.
Rudd said at the time that Chinalco's application to move to a 19.9 percent stake in the Anglo-Australian miner would be assessed on the basis of national interest.
On Sunday, Treasurer Wayne Swan outlined the foreign investment guidelines which a government-owned group would have to meet in taking major stakes in Australian companies.
The sovereign wealth fund would have to show that it could not be manipulated by its political masters and would not be allowed to acquire assets crucial to Australia's national security.
Sovereign wealth funds are large government investment vehicles which shot to prominence through their asset buying spree on the back of an oil price boom in the Middle East and export-driven surpluses in East Asia.
The spotlight is on the fledgling, cash-flush China Investment Corporation Ltd., which United States lawmakers fear could snap up strategic assets and threaten American security and sovereignty.
ANZ Banking Group led a share market run on the big banks after it surprised investors by revealing a worse-than-expected exposure to potential bad corporate debts.
Australia's third-biggest bank said a higher provisions charge to cover potential bad loans - headlined by a one-off $US200 million ($A220.68 million) exposure to a US bond insurer - was now so large it would ``offset'' strong profit growth.
The ANZ's trading update came only a week after the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) delivered interim earnings that fell short of expectations.
Like CBA, ANZ blamed its profit problems on the higher cost of wholesale funding and the need to put more money aside to cover bad corporate loans.
Investors cut ANZ's share price by $1.45, or 6.06% to $22.46 by the close of trading, and punished the other big banks.
It was the lowest closing level since it ended at $21.90 on September 2, 2005.
ANZ pencilled in a potential $US200 million loss on its exposure to ACA Capital Holdings after the US monoliner had its credit rating slashed last year.
Like other US-based bond insurers, ACA Capital has run into grief with its CDOs (collateralised debt obligations), which had some US subprime mortgage liabilities.
Adding to the ANZ's provision pain was a rating downgrade for one of its commercial property clients, resulting in an extra $90 million provision charge.
The property client is believed to be struggling supermarket owner Centro Properties Group.
UBS has estimated that ANZ had a $500 million unsecured exposure to Centro, a $700 million secured exposure and a $150 million exposure to US-based lender Countrywide.
ANZ posted another $51 million one-off provision to cover Lafayette Mining Ltd, which went into administration last year after a series of problems at its mine in the Philippines.
Grilled by industry analysts during a briefing today, ANZ boss Mike Smith was adamant his bank had no direct exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
''For ANZ to experience an actual loss on this exposure (to ACA Capital) it would require a significant number of what is a large and well-diversified portfolio of corporate names to go belly-up around the world,'' he said.
''If that happens we're looking at an armageddon situation. Really we would be the last thing you would have to worry about if that happened.''
Mr Smith said he expected that ANZ would eventually end up ``writing back most, if not all of this provision''.
The bank's underlying business was in good shape, he said. ``It's no surprise to anyone that credit costs have risen.
''They have been well below normal for quite some time and that was clearly unsustainable. The credit cycle has changed.''
ANZ was likely to increase revenues ``a little faster'' than many expected and, if anything, its revenue momentum was actually accelerating, Mr Smith said.
On the industry front, Mr Smith said the Australian banking system was standing up to the international credit crunch much better than European and US lenders.
''I would recommend all of you to visit London and New York in the near future just to see the effect of what is really happening there,'' he said.
''This is a financial services bloodbath. The Australian banking system is in remarkably good shape in comparison.''
So far this financial year, ANZ has raised term wholesale funding of $12 billion and is on track to meet its full-year term funding target of at least $25 billion.
The cost of the funding increased significantly and had only been partially offset by higher interest rates for customer lending, the bank said.
ANZ last month increased its variable rate for home loans by 20 basis points independently of the central bank.
ANZ said consumer credit quality in Australia remained solid, with low arrears and actual losses modestly below initial expectations.
Paul Xiradis, chief executive at fund manager Ausbil Dexia Ltd, said the ANZ's revelations had caught the market by surprise.
''We've seen the market react negatively as a consequence of that,'' Mr Xiradis said.
''It's bringing down the whole of the banking sector and raising concerns about the banks' exposure to these one-off factors.''
LONDON (Reuters) - European shares rose in early trade on Monday, as gains in British banks and oil stocks helped investors claw back some of the sharp losses suffered in the last session.
At 3:18 a.m. EST, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.9 percent at 1,320.7 points.
Banks were the top gainers, with Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS and Lloyds TSB gaining 3.4-4.4 percent after the British government decided to nationalize Northern Rock and on dividend hopes.
Credit Suisse rose 3.5 percent, boosted by an agency report that Qatar had bought shares in the company.
Oil stocks tracked crude prices higher, with BP up 1.3 percent and Royal Dutch Shell up 1.4 percent.
Analysts said that rallies would be brief and the overall tone in the market was still negative in the wake of bank writedowns stemming from a credit crisis.
"This is a bear market, and there will be some rallies in it," said Justin Urquhart Stewart of 7 Investment Management.
"The focus this week is going to be on the banks, as investors scrutinize their results to see if they've put off balance sheet things that should actually be on balance sheet, and whether we've actually been led a merry dance."
Scandal-hit French bank Societe Generale and peer BNP Paribas, as well as Britain's Barclays report results later this week.
SEOUL, Feb 18 (Reuters) - South Korea's Hyundai Engineering & Construction said on Monday it had secured a 600.45 billion won ($635.6 million) harbour development order from Singapore.
The Maritime Port Authority of Singapore had placed that order to develop the Pasir Panjang terminal, Hyundai told the Korea Exchange in a filing.
Singapore is spending S$2 billion ($1.38 billion) to boost annual capacity at its container port by about 40 per cent to cope with the higher volumes expected from global trade, a newspaper said in December.
The Maritime Port Authority of Singapore will create 16 extra berths by 2013 at the Pasir Panjang terminal, which will have an annual handling capacity of 14 million standard containers, said the Singapore Straits Times at the time. ($1=944.6 Won)
By Daniel Pimlott, Financial Times February 18, 2008
New York : Bangladesh's Grameen Bank has made its first loans in New York in an attempt to bring its pioneering microfinance techniques to the tens of millions of people in the world's richest country who have no bank account.
The bank's entry into the US, its first in a developed market, comes as mainstream banks' credibility has been hit by the mortgage meltdown and many people are turning to fringe financial institutions offering loans at exorbitant interest rates.
"Now is a good time because of ... the subprime crisis and that highlights the issue that the financial system is not perfect," Muhammad Yunus, the bank's Nobel Prize winning founder, told the Financial Times.
Grameen has loaned $50,000 in the past month to groups of immigrant women in Jackson Heights in New York's borough of Queens. During the next five years, it plans to offer $176 million in loans within New York city, and then expand to the rest of the US.
In Bangladesh, Grameen lends to poor women seeking to start small enterprises who cannot borrow from banks because they do not have accounts or a high enough credit rating.
The bank, which started with $27 in loans Yunus made to 42 women in Bangladesh in 1976, has now made more than $6.5 billion in loans to seven million people in the country.
In the US, about 28 million people have no bank accounts and 44.7 million have only limited access to financial institutions.
China A-shares end morning higher on new equity funds approval
17 February 2008
SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - China A-shares finished the morning higher after news that the securities regulator approved two more equity funds, paving the way for more capital flows into the local bourse, dealers said.
Banks and telecom firms led the gains.
The official Shanghai Securities Journal reported that Bank of China Investment Management Co and AXA SPDB Investment Managers have won approval to launch two new open-ended stock funds.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended the morning up 64.01 points or 1.42 pct at 4,561.13.
Meanwhile, nine fund management firms were reportedly given the go-ahead to offer wealth management services to institutions.
These developments were seen by analysts as part of government efforts to support the market after recent sharp declines due to concerns over the US subprime crisis and economic policy tightening by China.
‘We see the authorities continuing to release positive signals to the market. The approval of new stock funds and special wealth management services is expected to increase market liquidity,’ said Hu Yu, analyst at United Securities.
On Feb 4, just after the authorities approved two closed-end equity funds, ending a more than five-month suspension for approving new equity fund products, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rebounded more than 8 pct after a steep downturn beginning mid-January.
The news also helped ease fears over inflation and the risk of further policy tightening.
XFN-Asia affiliate Market News International, citing sources, reported that China’s consumer price index rose 7.1 pct year-on-year in January, with the indicator surging to its highest level in over 11 years after heavy snowfall late in the month and higher demand due to the Chinese New Year holiday.
The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to report January CPI at 10:00 am tomorrow. If confirmed, the reading would be well over December’s 6.5 pct, the highest level for consumer price inflation since the 7.4 pct reported in September 1996.
Financial and property stocks rebounded after they led the broader market lower on Friday.
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd (SHA 600036) jumped 4.15 pct to 34.91 yuan, and Industrial Bank Co Ltd (SHA 601166) gained 1.94 yuan to 44.94.
China Vanke Co Ltd (SZA 000002; SZB 200002) added 2.8 pct to 27.20 yuan, while Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (SHA 600048) rose 2.16 yuan to 73.49.
Telecom plays stayed in favor amid persistent speculation that Beijing will reorganize the telecom industry this year. China United Telecommunications Corp Ltd (SHA 600050) added 2.28 pct to 13.01 yuan, while ZTE Corp (SZA 000063; HK 0763) gained 2.87 yuan to 78.00.
The Shanghai A-share Index rose 67.16 points to 4,786.55 while the Shenzhen A-share Index was up 34.91 points at 1,476.78.
The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was up 348.80 points at 17,874.92 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index rose 269.74 points to 13,778.73.
12 comments:
0234 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup cuts Singapore corporates’ target prices, warns STI could hit 2700 before recovering. Says stock market weakness could persist for some time; “a history of past pullbacks in the market which were accompanied by an economic slowdown shows that the Singapore market consolidated for at least a year.” Advises investors to stay defensive, focus on earnings visibility, sensible valuations, and attractive dividend yields. Blue-chip target price cuts as follows: CapitaLand (C31.SG) cut to S$5.44 from S$7.00, CapitaMall Trust (C38U.SG) cut to S$3.67 from S$3.97, City Developments (C09.SG) cut to S$13.41 from S$15.90, DBS (D05.SG) cut to S$18.10 from S$25.50, OCBC (O39.SG) cut to S$8.00 from S$9.75, SGX (S68.SG) cut to S$6.45 from S$11.22; SIA Engineering (S59.SG) cut to S$4.97 from S$5.78; UOB (U11.SG) cut to S$18.10 from S$24.00.(KIG)
王冠一: 别 信 表 象 还 看 本 质
2008-02-18
美 国 经 济 会 否 迈 向 衰 退 言 人 人 殊 , 殿 堂 级 大 师 如 格 老 认 为 已 接 近 衰 退 边 缘 , 财 长 保 尔 森 在 G7 会 议 会 后 强 调 不 会 出 现 衰 退 , 然 冠 一 则 相 信 , 尽 管 技 术 上 ( 两 季 度 经 济 录 得 负 增 长 ) 然 冠 一 则 相 信 , 尽 管 技 术 上 ( 两 季 度 经 济 录 得 负 增 长 ) ( 伯 南 克 和 保 尔 森 ) , 以 及 各 方 力 挽 狂 澜 的 努 力 下 , 可 逃 过 技 术 衰 退 之 厄 运 。 可 是 某 些 环 节 , 如 房 地 产 有 关 行 业 、 金 融 业 , 以 至 部 份 零 售 业 已 有 衰 退 之 虞。这 便 是 「 表 象 」 与 「 本 质 」 之 分 别 , 不 然 又 怎 可 以 开 动 24 小 时 新 闻 来 愚 民 ?
魔 鬼 在 细 节 中
讲 开 表 象 与 本 质 , 不 禁 要 拿 早 前 公 布 的 1 月 份 零 售 销 售 数 字 来 一 谈 。该 数 字 按 月 上 升 0.3% , 远 比 市 场 预 期 跌 0.3% 为 佳 , 扣 除 汽 车 部 份 仍 录 得 升 0.3% ( 分 析 估 升 0.2% ) , 可 谓 不 俗 。 笔 者 常 说 : 「 魔 鬼 在 细 节 中 」 — — 原 来 零 售 销 售 之 上 升 , 乃 由 於 汽 油 站 销 售 额 升 2% 所 致 , 皆 因 每 加 仑 汽 油 急 升 至 3.11 美 元 , 若 减 去 此 部 份 , 零 售 销 售 仅 上 升 0.1% , 此 外 百 货 公 司 销 售 、家 电 及 电 子 产 品 、 建 材 等 皆 录 得 下 跌 1.1% 至 2.5% 不 等 , 仅 部 份 货 品 在 「 大 出 血 」 ( 折 扣 高 达 75% ) 如 衣 物 等 的 招 徕 下 录 得 上 升 而 已 。
按 某 心 水 清 的 分 析 家 之 意 见 , 查 实 零 售 销 售 扣 除 汽 车 及 汽 油 , 是 自 03 年 4 月 以 来 最 差 , 咁 都 可 以 将 股 市 炒 上 去 ( 道 指 当 日 升 178 点 、 标 普 500 升 18 点 , 纳 指 更 劲 升 2.3% ) , 是 反 智 抑 或 无 知 ?
适 时 采 取 行 动
有 人 或 批 评 在 下 , 看 问 题 为 何 多 属 负 面 ? 冠 一 只 是 有 碗 话 碗 、 有 碟 话 碟 , 从 来 不 趋 炎 附 势 或 看 风 驶 , 相 信 读 者 想 知 的 是 硬 道 理 和 真 相 。瞧 瞧 前 晚 联 储 局 主 席 伯 南 克 在 国 会 银 行 委 员 会 作 证 时 , 重 申 会 在 适 当 时 ( timely ) 采 取 行 动 , 亦 即 讲 减 息 讲 到 出 口 , 惊 死 无 人 听 见 , 然 则 为 何 美 股 急 挫 ? 减 息 不 是 好 消 息 吗 ?
Arcane Market Is Next to Face Big Credit Test
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
February 17, 2008
Few Americans have heard of credit default swaps, arcane financial instruments invented by Wall Street about a decade ago. But if the economy keeps slowing, credit default swaps, like subprime mortgages, may become a household term.
Credit default swaps form a large but obscure market that will be put to its first big test as a looming economic downturn strains companies’ finances. Like a homeowner’s policy that insures against a flood or fire, these instruments are intended to cover losses to banks and bondholders when companies fail to pay their debts.
The market for these securities is enormous. Since 2000, it has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $45.5 trillion — roughly twice the size of the entire United States stock market.
No one knows how troubled the credit swaps market is, because, like the now-distressed market for subprime mortgage securities, it is unregulated. But because swaps have proliferated so rapidly, experts say that a hiccup in this market could set off a chain reaction of losses at financial institutions, making it even harder for borrowers to get loans that grease economic activity.
It is entirely possible that this market can withstand a big jump in corporate defaults, if it comes. But an inkling of trouble emerged in a recent report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a federal banking regulator. It warned that a significant increase in trading in swaps during the third quarter of last year “put a strain on processing systems” used by banks to handle these trades and make sure they match up.
And last week, the American International Group said that it had incorrectly valued some of the swaps it had written and that sharp declines in some of these instruments had translated to $3.6 billion more in losses than the company had previously estimated. Its stock dropped 12 percent on the news but edged up in the days after.
A.I.G. says it expects to file its year-end financial statements on time by the end of this month with appropriate valuations.
Placing accurate values on these contracts is just one of the uncertainties facing the big banks, insurance companies and hedge funds that create and trade these instruments.
In a credit default swap, two parties enter a private contract in which the buyer of protection agrees to pay the seller premiums over a set period of time; the seller pays only if a particular credit crisis occurs, like a default. These instruments can be sold, on either end of the contract, by the insurer or the insured.
But during the credit market upheaval in August, 14 percent of trades in these contracts were unconfirmed, meaning one of the parties in the resale transaction was unidentified in trade documents and remained unknown 30 days later. In December, that number stood at 13 percent. Because these trades are unregulated, there is no requirement that all parties to a contract be told when it is sold.
As investors who have purchased such swaps try to cash them in, they may have trouble tracking down who is supposed to pay their claims.
“This is just a giant insurance industry that is underregulated and not very well reserved for and does not have very good standards as a result,” said Michael A. J. Farrell, chief executive of Annaly Capital Management in New York. “I think unregulated markets that overshadow, in terms of size, the regulated ones are a real question mark.”
Because these contracts are sold and resold among financial institutions, an original buyer may not know that a new, potentially weaker entity has taken over the obligation to pay a claim.
In late 2005, at the urging of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, market participants agreed to advise their trading partners in a swap when they assigned contracts to others. But it is unclear how closely participants adhere to this practice.
It would be as if homeowners, facing losses after a hurricane, could not identify the insurance companies to pay on their claims. Or, if they could, they discovered that their insurer had transferred the policy to another company that could not cover the claim.
Credit default swaps were invented by major banks in the mid-1990s as a way to offset risk in their lending or bond portfolios. At the outset, each contract was different, volume in the market was small and participants knew whom they were dealing with.
Years of a healthy economy and few corporate defaults led many banks to write more credit insurance, finding it a low-risk way to earn income because failures were few. Speculators have also flooded into the credit insurance market recently because these securities make it easier to bet on the health of a company than using corporate bonds.
Both factors have resulted in a market of credit swaps that now far exceeds the face value of corporate bonds underlying it. Commercial banks are among the biggest participants — at the end of the third quarter of 2007, the top 25 banks held credit default swaps, both as insurers and insured, worth $14 trillion, the currency office said, up $2 trillion from the previous quarter.
JPMorgan Chase, with $7.8 trillion, is the largest player; Citibank and Bank of America are behind it with $3 trillion and $1.6 trillion respectively.
But many speculators, particularly hedge funds, have flocked to these instruments to bet on a company failure easily. Before the insurance was developed, such a bet would require selling short a corporation’s bond and going into the market to borrow it to supply to the buyer.
The market’s popularity raises the possibility that undercapitalized participants could have trouble paying their obligations.
“The theme had been that derivatives are an instrument that helps diversify risk and stabilize risk-taking,” said Henry Kaufman, the economist at Henry Kaufman & Company in New York and an authority on the ways of Wall Street. “My own view of that has always been highly questionable — those instruments also encourage significant risk-taking and looking at risk modestly rather than incisively.”
Officials at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a trade group, say they are confident that the market will stand up, even under stress.
“During the volatility we have seen in the last eight months, credit default swaps continue to trade, unlike other parts of the credit market that have shut down,” said Robert G. Pickel, chief executive of the association. “Even if we have a series of credit events at the same time, we have the processes in place to enable the market to deliver.”
Such credit problems have been rare recently. The default rate among high-yield junk bonds fell to 0.9 percent in December, a record low.
But financial history is rife with examples of market breakdowns that followed the creation of complex securities. Financial innovation often gets ahead of the mechanics necessary to track trades or regulators’ ability to monitor the market for safety and soundness.
The market for default insurance, like the subprime mortgage securities market, is a product of good economic times and has boomed in recent years. In 2000, $900 billion of credit insurance contracts changed hands. Since then, the face value of the contracts outstanding has doubled every year as new contracts have been written. In the first six months of 2007, the figure rose 75 percent; the market now dwarfs the value of United States Treasuries outstanding.
Roughly one-third of the credit default swaps provided insurance against a default by a specific corporate debt issuer in 2006, according to the British Bankers’ Association. Around 30 percent of the contracts were written against indexes representing baskets of debt from numerous issuers.
But 16 percent were created to protect holders of collateralized debt obligations, complex pools of bonds that have recently experienced problems because of mortgage holdings.
There is no exchange where these insurance contracts trade, and their prices are not reported to the public. Because of this, institutions typically value them based on computer models rather than prices set by the market.
Neither are the participants overseen by regulators verifying that the parties to the transactions can meet their obligations.
The potential for problems in sizing up the financial health of buyers of these securities leads to questions about how these insurance contracts are being valued on banks’ books. A bank that has bought protection to cover its corporate bond exposure thinks it is hedged and therefore does not write off paper losses it may incur on those bond holdings. If the party who sold the insurance cannot pay on its claim in the event of a default, however, the bank’s losses would have to be reflected on its books.
Investors are already reeling from the recognition that major banks inaccurately estimated losses from the mortgage debacle. If further write-downs emerge as a result of hedges that did not work, investor confidence could take another dive.
To be sure, the $45 trillion in credit default swaps is not an exact reflection of what would be lost or won if all the underlying securities defaulted. That figure is impossible to pinpoint since the amounts that are recovered in default situations vary.
But one of the challenges facing participants in the credit default swap market is that the market value amount of the contracts outstanding far exceeds the $5.7 trillion of the corporate bonds whose defaults the swaps were created to protect against.
To the uninitiated trying to understand this complex market, its size might initially seem a comfort, as if there were far more insurance covering the bonds than could ever be needed. But because each contract must be settled between buyer and seller if a default occurs, this imbalance can present a problem.
Typically, settling the agreements has required the delivery of defaulted bonds if the insurance buyer wants to be fully covered. If the insurance contracts exceed the bonds that are available for delivery, problems arise.
For example, when Delphi, the auto parts maker, filed for bankruptcy in October 2005, the credit default swaps on the company’s debt exceeded the value of underlying bonds tenfold. Buyers of credit insurance scrambled to buy the bonds, driving up their price to around 70 cents on the dollar, a startlingly high value for defaulted debt.
Market participants worked out an auction system where settlements of Delphi contracts could be made even if the bonds could not be physically delivered. This arrangement was done at just over 36 cents on the dollar; so buyers of protection on Delphi who did not have the bonds received $366.25 for every $1,000 in coverage they had bought. Had they been valuing their Delphi insurance coverage at $1,000 per bond, they would have had to write off that position by $633.75 per $1,000 bond.
That is why the valuation of these contracts is of such concern to some participants.
As with other securities that trade privately and by appointment, assigning values to credit default swaps is highly subjective. So some on Wall Street wonder how much of the paper gains generated in these instruments by firms and hedge funds last year will turn out to be illusory when they try to cash them in.
“The insurance business is very difficult to quantify risk in,” said Mr. Farrell of Annaly Capital Management. “You have to really read the contract to make sure you are covered. That is going to be the test of the market this year. As defaults kick in and as these events unfold, you are going to find out who has managed this well.”
And who hasn’t.
Allco's judgment day delayed again
Danny John
February 18, 2008
Allco Finance has delayed its day of reckoning again, announcing this morning that its first half results have been delayed indefinitely.
The aircraft leasing, shipping, property and funds management empire ia bout to reveal to investors, analysts and the media the full extent of the crisis - both financial and reputational - that has swirled around the group since its shares went into free fall from mid-December.
The latest delay to Allco's long-awaited half yearly results follows the sudden cancellation of their announcement on Friday. The announcement will give company founder and execcutive chairman David Coe his first public opportunity to explain how Allco intends to get out of its current predicament.
Analysts have previously indicated that Allco would probably turn in net profits of around $120 million for the half year to the end of December - a period that covered the fall-out of the global credit crisis which has made life so difficult for those companies like AFG that depend on debt to finance their businesses.
But most of the emphasis - and the questions - will focus on Allco's immediate future, its plans to reduce its mountain of debt and what it will have to sell if it is to save itself.
Macquarie Group, private equity firm Texas Pacific and Babcock & Brown are believed to have explored informal bids for parts or all of Allco. Allco's advisers, Caliburn Partnership, have opened a data room to allow potential purchasers to get a clearer financial picture of its assets.
The company is also having to work closely with corporate solvency and restructuring specialist Ferrier Hodgson which was appointed last week by the Commonwealth Bank in a move aimed at ensuring that Allco was able to meet its financing commitments.
The Commonwealth's chief executive, Ralph Norris, alluded to the move in a TV interview yesterday without naming either Allco or Centro, which is another big debtor to the bank now being closely monitored.
"We have provided for those particular corporates who are not in as strong position as they were. But I have to say that none of them have defaulted at this point and they are servicing their debt as per their arrangements."
A spokesman for Allco was unable to comment on the company's financial situation yesterday.
At the same time Allco is also said to be looking to get out of its most recent deal, agreed in December, that involved the $1.67 billion acquisition of 29 power stations in the US with its joint venture partner, the Australian super fund investor Industry Funds Management.
Allco's shares are expected to come out of suspension as early as today after being placed in a halt last Monday at $3.05.
The stock dropped sharply in January after it was disclosed that Allco's senior executives, including Mr Coe, had been the subject of margin calls which required the forced sale of shares in the main company.
Sovereign wealth funds face scrutiny in Australia
18 February 2008
SYDNEY: Investments in Australia by foreign state-owned wealth funds will face close scrutiny, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Monday, in the wake of China's move into mining giant Rio Tinto.
While stressing that he was not commenting specifically on "current moves on the part of particular companies," Rudd said he wanted to talk to Beijing's leaders about China's future plans for investment in resources.
"How do we fashion this long-term energy and resource relationship between our two countries?" he asked in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
"China does depend on reliable sources of supply from Australia in a whole range of commodity areas.
"This will continue into the future and what I want to talk to the Chinese leadership about is, what's their long-term strategy and what are this country's long-term strategic interests as well."
China's insatiable hunger for resources to fuel its rapidly-growing economy has driven a mining-backed boom in Australia in recent years.
State-owned aluminium giant Chinalco, acting with US-based Alcoa Inc, bought 12 percent of the London-listed shares of Rio Tinto, the world's third-biggest miner, for 14 billion US dollars in a sharemarket raid earlier this month.
Rudd said at the time that Chinalco's application to move to a 19.9 percent stake in the Anglo-Australian miner would be assessed on the basis of national interest.
On Sunday, Treasurer Wayne Swan outlined the foreign investment guidelines which a government-owned group would have to meet in taking major stakes in Australian companies.
The sovereign wealth fund would have to show that it could not be manipulated by its political masters and would not be allowed to acquire assets crucial to Australia's national security.
Sovereign wealth funds are large government investment vehicles which shot to prominence through their asset buying spree on the back of an oil price boom in the Middle East and export-driven surpluses in East Asia.
The spotlight is on the fledgling, cash-flush China Investment Corporation Ltd., which United States lawmakers fear could snap up strategic assets and threaten American security and sovereignty.
- AFP/so
Investors spooked by ANZ bad debt provisions
February 18, 2008
ANZ Banking Group led a share market run on the big banks after it surprised investors by revealing a worse-than-expected exposure to potential bad corporate debts.
Australia's third-biggest bank said a higher provisions charge to cover potential bad loans - headlined by a one-off $US200 million ($A220.68 million) exposure to a US bond insurer - was now so large it would ``offset'' strong profit growth.
The ANZ's trading update came only a week after the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) delivered interim earnings that fell short of expectations.
Like CBA, ANZ blamed its profit problems on the higher cost of wholesale funding and the need to put more money aside to cover bad corporate loans.
Investors cut ANZ's share price by $1.45, or 6.06% to $22.46 by the close of trading, and punished the other big banks.
It was the lowest closing level since it ended at $21.90 on September 2, 2005.
ANZ pencilled in a potential $US200 million loss on its exposure to ACA Capital Holdings after the US monoliner had its credit rating slashed last year.
Like other US-based bond insurers, ACA Capital has run into grief with its CDOs (collateralised debt obligations), which had some US subprime mortgage liabilities.
Adding to the ANZ's provision pain was a rating downgrade for one of its commercial property clients, resulting in an extra $90 million provision charge.
The property client is believed to be struggling supermarket owner Centro Properties Group.
UBS has estimated that ANZ had a $500 million unsecured exposure to Centro, a $700 million secured exposure and a $150 million exposure to US-based lender Countrywide.
ANZ posted another $51 million one-off provision to cover Lafayette Mining Ltd, which went into administration last year after a series of problems at its mine in the Philippines.
Grilled by industry analysts during a briefing today, ANZ boss Mike Smith was adamant his bank had no direct exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
''For ANZ to experience an actual loss on this exposure (to ACA Capital) it would require a significant number of what is a large and well-diversified portfolio of corporate names to go belly-up around the world,'' he said.
''If that happens we're looking at an armageddon situation. Really we would be the last thing you would have to worry about if that happened.''
Mr Smith said he expected that ANZ would eventually end up ``writing back most, if not all of this provision''.
The bank's underlying business was in good shape, he said. ``It's no surprise to anyone that credit costs have risen.
''They have been well below normal for quite some time and that was clearly unsustainable. The credit cycle has changed.''
ANZ was likely to increase revenues ``a little faster'' than many expected and, if anything, its revenue momentum was actually accelerating, Mr Smith said.
On the industry front, Mr Smith said the Australian banking system was standing up to the international credit crunch much better than European and US lenders.
''I would recommend all of you to visit London and New York in the near future just to see the effect of what is really happening there,'' he said.
''This is a financial services bloodbath. The Australian banking system is in remarkably good shape in comparison.''
So far this financial year, ANZ has raised term wholesale funding of $12 billion and is on track to meet its full-year term funding target of at least $25 billion.
The cost of the funding increased significantly and had only been partially offset by higher interest rates for customer lending, the bank said.
ANZ last month increased its variable rate for home loans by 20 basis points independently of the central bank.
ANZ said consumer credit quality in Australia remained solid, with low arrears and actual losses modestly below initial expectations.
Paul Xiradis, chief executive at fund manager Ausbil Dexia Ltd, said the ANZ's revelations had caught the market by surprise.
''We've seen the market react negatively as a consequence of that,'' Mr Xiradis said.
''It's bringing down the whole of the banking sector and raising concerns about the banks' exposure to these one-off factors.''
AAP
雪灾对中国军事战略启示深刻
香港中通社北京二月十七日电
【大公网讯】-- 内地军事专家戴旭在《环球时报》上撰文指出，可以把二００八年初的大范围雪灾，想象成一场应对突如其来的现代战争的演习。用战时的目光来观察这次雪灾，看到中国经济建设、社会运行和军事战略中的某些弱点，并亡羊补牢、未雨绸缪。
戴旭在文章中说，现代社会，电力是社会和经济运行的总开关，没有了电，一切便迅速陷入全面瘫痪。正如这次雪灾的多米诺骨牌效应显示的：大雪压断电缆导致电网中断，电气化列车因此无法开行，又使电厂急需的煤炭无法运抵，人员、物资流通受阻，正常生活秩序陷入混乱。公路和机场的冰封，使铁路的困境更加凸显。交通依赖电力，电力又依赖能源，能源又依赖交通，而经济又依赖上述三者的循环。他指出，社会运行大系统的脆弱不是中国现代化进程所独有，但却是应该引起特别警惕的。
此外，这次雪灾适逢春运，部分地方的局势也可以用高危来形容，部分站点还出现数度几乎失控。戴旭认为，这至少反映出民众缺乏自觉的纪律性，同时也暴露出组织方面的缺陷。如果这是战时，这种混乱的局面不仅将导致巨大的伤亡，还会严重影响各种作战和救援行动的展开。如何从平时就对国民进行危机时的纪律性教育和培养？面对无序而庞大的人群，如何采取迅速的疏散措施？如何进行有效的救助？都是此次雪灾的警示。
文章指出，在未来的国家现代化建设中，还应更多地从战争预防的角度审视一下。比如，在城市布局上，能否多建地下工程？考虑到未来电力系统有可能受到点穴打击，能否把某些电厂建在地下？在能源供应上，东南沿海应发展多重能源，能否部分地通过地下传输电力？这次雪灾还暴露了中国由于经济布局的不合理，导致流动人口压力大，可能成为巨大的交通负担和社会动荡的源头，从而影响战时其它战略行动的展开。
戴旭的文章说，这场雪灾对中国军队军事战略的启迪是深刻的。在美国智库兰德公司一九九九年设想的对中国的战争计划中，就有炸断中国若干条铁路运输干线的桥梁、电网，导致南北运输瘫痪，导致民工滞留南方城市生活无着、形成动乱，导致南方经济中断运转，从而导致台海战争的告负。这一思想清晰地展现在后来的「龙啸」演习和其它常规演习中。
戴旭认为，未来对手针对中国这样的大国发动战争，将不再以消灭有生力量和占领国土为目标，而是以打击经济设施，削弱发展潜力为重心。这次雪灾造成的损失说明，中国经济发展的现状，已很难承受战争发生在自己本土，特别是发生在沿海地区。因此，为了从最坏处做好准备，中国又必须在未来的战略规划中，为沿海地区提供足够的防御纵深。这些地区是中国经济的重心和现代化的希望，如何防卫这些地区，应成为中国军队军事战略的重中之重。
中国新军事变革千头万绪，但战争观念的转变是一切的起点和终点。文章认为，面对未来战争，中国军队应该以强大的大区域威慑能力为基础，首选慑止战争；其次是认真做好反击和防御的准备。一旦敌人挑起战争，应在迅速组织反击的同时，采取积极有效的救援，保证国内战时机制紧张有序的运行。只有这样，才能将战争及其损失控制在最小规模。
陆羽仁: 莫吃眼前虧
2008/2/18
網友Bigcow問話匯豐（０００５）好抵，但會否再低？我估好多人係匯豐粉絲，早前講到匯豐都有好多人有反應，所以不妨再講吓。
過去一年，有個中環茶友經常提醒我，小心匯豐，佢在美國次按的業務係大炸彈，又脫唔到手，匯豐的英國董事會又唔夠大刀闊斧找管理層開刀，所以鬼佬大行對匯豐幾唔睇好，外資大戶要插大市時實搵匯豐來插，隨傳隨到，永無失拖。
所以我講匯豐時亦比較小心，對網友問起匯豐時都唔會答得太具體，由於網友的問題多數無講清楚自己係長線或短線，我最怕長線和短線的觀點混淆咗，亂答累死你。不過如今都可以講得具體啲，我認為短線買匯豐唔係幾買得過，你可能即刻有反應，話無理由匯豐無可能反彈，甚至大反彈？我並唔係話匯豐唔可能反彈，如今美國金融股如碧斯所言，有一個１０％、２０％的大反彈，匯豐一定會彈，但我的問題是如果美股彈，港股又彈，匯豐會唔會係最突出的股份呢？
香港恒指可以分成三大部份，匯豐佔其一，紅色巨股佔其一，地產股佔其一，三分天下，若美股彈，港股彈，匯豐彈，你估恒指彈唔彈，你估紅色巨股彈唔彈，你估地產股彈唔彈？你要我估，我估若匯豐反彈，恒指的反彈幅度唔會少過匯豐，即係買盈富基金（２８００）都會差唔多，甚至好啲。點解會好啲？如果紅色股或地產股反彈得仲勁，超越匯豐，咁盈富的升幅就會大過匯豐。從一個短炒的角度，匯豐是弱股，唔係唔會彈，雖然跌得多，但反彈未必會多過人。
若講短線，我其實睇好紅色巨股多啲，因為大陸A股已跌了一段時間，主要是年頭宏調和法人股解凍所致，雖然宏調措施都未出齊，但消息會慢慢消化，而解凍股唔似會在低位狂沽，所以大陸股市都係近底。唔好忘記仲有個港股直通車，呢個措施未死，要出亦可以好快出，而且多數係喺港股便宜時推出，所以紅色巨股好有條件短線跑贏匯豐，若唔識揀股，買匯豐不如買恒生H股基金（２８２８），兩隻去跑，我睇好２８２８多啲。
匯豐的問題是美國和歐洲業務，中線而言（講一兩年），頭頂有一把懸劍，就係美國次按危機的幅射未完，壞消息未充份反映，如我今天在頭條日報的專欄提到，美股可能有大反彈，但今年下半年怕佢彈完又嚟料，信用卡的壞帳潮又到，匯豐在美國的次按賣唔到，歐洲業務又怕被美國拖累，所以中線匯豐不能睇好，較好的情況是在大波幅內行走，股價在１００元至１３０元間走動，未有條件向上大突破此波幅太多，若較壞的情況出現，不能排除下半年會下穿波幅試底，買佢小心吃眼前虧。
若問好長線匯豐買唔買得過，我會覺得匯豐的基本管理資素良好，若在低位吸，揸五年以上，當係債券咁收息，或者有得諗，又舉一個例，以長線計，若唔買匯豐買恒生H股指數基金，就係買中國經濟仲有十幾年快速增長，紅色巨股的管理唔好，但高速增長可以填補管理缺陷，所以紅色巨股是高風險、高回報的股份。但如果匯豐賣掉美國次按業務，以其優良管理，則是低風險、中回報的股份，如何選擇要自己決定。
好多股民愛匯豐，是受佢過去長期高增長所影響，期望這種高增長可以再來，但我要話俾大家知，匯豐下跌前的兩三年的高增長期，主要是收購美國業務而來，但那個收購為她帶來大災難，她在那幾年中國生意（甚至是印度和俄羅斯這些新興地區）還是較便宜時，沒有大手落注，錯過了這個機會，想追都好難追，所以未來匯豐即使醫番好，也不是過去那隻又穩陣又高增長的匯豐了。
Banks, oils power early gains in European shares
Sitaraman Shankar
Feb 18, 2008
LONDON (Reuters) - European shares rose in early trade on Monday, as gains in British banks and oil stocks helped investors claw back some of the sharp losses suffered in the last session.
At 3:18 a.m. EST, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.9 percent at 1,320.7 points.
Banks were the top gainers, with Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS and Lloyds TSB gaining 3.4-4.4 percent after the British government decided to nationalize Northern Rock and on dividend hopes.
Credit Suisse rose 3.5 percent, boosted by an agency report that Qatar had bought shares in the company.
Oil stocks tracked crude prices higher, with BP up 1.3 percent and Royal Dutch Shell up 1.4 percent.
Analysts said that rallies would be brief and the overall tone in the market was still negative in the wake of bank writedowns stemming from a credit crisis.
"This is a bear market, and there will be some rallies in it," said Justin Urquhart Stewart of 7 Investment Management.
"The focus this week is going to be on the banks, as investors scrutinize their results to see if they've put off balance sheet things that should actually be on balance sheet, and whether we've actually been led a merry dance."
Scandal-hit French bank Societe Generale and peer BNP Paribas, as well as Britain's Barclays report results later this week.
U.S. markets are closed for Presidents Day.
Hyundai Eng wins $636 mln Singapore harbour order
By Kim Yeon-hee
SEOUL, Feb 18 (Reuters) - South Korea's Hyundai Engineering & Construction said on Monday it had secured a 600.45 billion won ($635.6 million) harbour development order from Singapore.
The Maritime Port Authority of Singapore had placed that order to develop the Pasir Panjang terminal, Hyundai told the Korea Exchange in a filing.
Singapore is spending S$2 billion ($1.38 billion) to boost annual capacity at its container port by about 40 per cent to cope with the higher volumes expected from global trade, a newspaper said in December.
The Maritime Port Authority of Singapore will create 16 extra berths by 2013 at the Pasir Panjang terminal, which will have an annual handling capacity of 14 million standard containers, said the Singapore Straits Times at the time. ($1=944.6 Won)
Bangladesh bank offers loans to US poor
By Daniel Pimlott, Financial Times
February 18, 2008
New York : Bangladesh's Grameen Bank has made its first loans in New York in an attempt to bring its pioneering microfinance techniques to the tens of millions of people in the world's richest country who have no bank account.
The bank's entry into the US, its first in a developed market, comes as mainstream banks' credibility has been hit by the mortgage meltdown and many people are turning to fringe financial institutions offering loans at exorbitant interest rates.
"Now is a good time because of ... the subprime crisis and that highlights the issue that the financial system is not perfect," Muhammad Yunus, the bank's Nobel Prize winning founder, told the Financial Times.
Grameen has loaned $50,000 in the past month to groups of immigrant women in Jackson Heights in New York's borough of Queens. During the next five years, it plans to offer $176 million in loans within New York city, and then expand to the rest of the US.
In Bangladesh, Grameen lends to poor women seeking to start small enterprises who cannot borrow from banks because they do not have accounts or a high enough credit rating.
The bank, which started with $27 in loans Yunus made to 42 women in Bangladesh in 1976, has now made more than $6.5 billion in loans to seven million people in the country.
In the US, about 28 million people have no bank accounts and 44.7 million have only limited access to financial institutions.
China A-shares end morning higher on new equity funds approval
17 February 2008
SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - China A-shares finished the morning higher after news that the securities regulator approved two more equity funds, paving the way for more capital flows into the local bourse, dealers said.
Banks and telecom firms led the gains.
The official Shanghai Securities Journal reported that Bank of China Investment Management Co and AXA SPDB Investment Managers have won approval to launch two new open-ended stock funds.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended the morning up 64.01 points or 1.42 pct at 4,561.13.
Meanwhile, nine fund management firms were reportedly given the go-ahead to offer wealth management services to institutions.
These developments were seen by analysts as part of government efforts to support the market after recent sharp declines due to concerns over the US subprime crisis and economic policy tightening by China.
‘We see the authorities continuing to release positive signals to the market. The approval of new stock funds and special wealth management services is expected to increase market liquidity,’ said Hu Yu, analyst at United Securities.
On Feb 4, just after the authorities approved two closed-end equity funds, ending a more than five-month suspension for approving new equity fund products, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rebounded more than 8 pct after a steep downturn beginning mid-January.
The news also helped ease fears over inflation and the risk of further policy tightening.
XFN-Asia affiliate Market News International, citing sources, reported that China’s consumer price index rose 7.1 pct year-on-year in January, with the indicator surging to its highest level in over 11 years after heavy snowfall late in the month and higher demand due to the Chinese New Year holiday.
The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to report January CPI at 10:00 am tomorrow. If confirmed, the reading would be well over December’s 6.5 pct, the highest level for consumer price inflation since the 7.4 pct reported in September 1996.
Financial and property stocks rebounded after they led the broader market lower on Friday.
China Merchants Bank Co Ltd (SHA 600036) jumped 4.15 pct to 34.91 yuan, and Industrial Bank Co Ltd (SHA 601166) gained 1.94 yuan to 44.94.
China Vanke Co Ltd (SZA 000002; SZB 200002) added 2.8 pct to 27.20 yuan, while Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd (SHA 600048) rose 2.16 yuan to 73.49.
Telecom plays stayed in favor amid persistent speculation that Beijing will reorganize the telecom industry this year. China United Telecommunications Corp Ltd (SHA 600050) added 2.28 pct to 13.01 yuan, while ZTE Corp (SZA 000063; HK 0763) gained 2.87 yuan to 78.00.
The Shanghai A-share Index rose 67.16 points to 4,786.55 while the Shenzhen A-share Index was up 34.91 points at 1,476.78.
The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was up 348.80 points at 17,874.92 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index rose 269.74 points to 13,778.73.
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