Capitaland proposed an unconditional acquisition of the remaining 33.5% stake in its listed subsidiary Ascott group offering S$989.5m or S$1.73 per Ascott share in cash. The offer price is at a 43% premium to the last traded price and at 41.8% premium to the one month volume weighted average price for Ascott shares. This represents a 16.5% discount to the consensus target price of S$2.01 for Ascott. The acquistion will be funded by bank borrowings.
Capitaland plans to fully integrate Ascott’s business and operations into the CapitaLand Group. This will enable CapitaLand to deploy capital and human resources seamlessly within the CapitaLand Group to maximise its competitive advantage of having a fully integrated real estate and financial services value chain across all property sectors. CapitaLand will also have more flexibility in managing and deploying its mix of residential developments for sale, for corporate leasing and for serviced residences to match demand in different markets and to respond to changes in market dynamics.
Capitaland also stands to benefit from the positive outlook of the serviced residences sector through the increased stake in Ascott Residential trust from 19% to 27%. We believe that the move by Capitaland is in line with their expansion and diversification strategy further strengthening its global presence.
Best Regards
Vikrant Pandey Investment Analyst UOB Kay Hian Research
HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Cathay Pacific dealt a blow on Monday to arch-foe Singapore Airline’s offer for 24 percent of China’s No. 3 airline, revealing it would consider joining partner Air China in a more expensive rival bid.
China Eastern shareholders vote on Tuesday on a stake sale that took more than a year to put together, but Air China’s parent, China National Aviation Corp, has vowed to trump the $920 million Singapore bid by a third.
Air China’s last-ditch attempt raised the stakes in the contest for a carrier that has made losses in three of the past five years, underscoring the lure of an industry growing at more than 16 percent ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
Now, Cathay’s potential entry may have put the final nail in the coffin for rival Singapore Air’s effort.
“If Cathay joins the bid, it will provide CNAC with good financial backing and a stronger reason for an international expansion,” said Kelvin Lau, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research.
CNAC, which owns 3.9 percent of China Eastern but which has more than 12 percent of its Hong Kong stock, plans to vote against the Singapore deal, arguing the sale was done on the cheap.
Singapore Air and China Eastern have said the deal was fair at six times the airline’s end-2006 book value.
“What’s the point of selling the stake at a lower price to a foreign investor?” said a fund manager at Harvest Fund Management Co, which is 20 percent-owned by Deutsche Bank, the eighth-largest holder of China Eastern’s locally-listed A shares.
“Most institutions will veto the plan,” he added, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of being named ahead of the politically sensitive vote.
Analysts said investors now look more favourably on a tie-up between China Eastern and Air China -- the world’s most valuable airline by market capitalisation -- especially now that Cathay has broken a three-month silence on its stand in the matter.
“If Cathay is involved in the transaction, it can replace Singapore Air in providing international expertise to China Eastern,” said a Hong Kong-based analyst at a U.K. brokerage house.
“Cathay is keen to increase its exposure to the China market, and its involvement will prevent Singapore Airline’s access to the Shanghai hub.”
ELEVENTH-HOUR
In an 11th-hour attempt to derail Singapore Air and its parent Temasek’s acquisition of the stake for HK$3.80 a share, CNAC has said it would pay at least HK$5.00 a share if the Singapore deal fails.
If approved, the Singapore Air deal would give the world’s most profitable airline access to China’s booming travel industry ahead of this summer’s Olympic Games, and create a formidable rival to Air China on its home turf -- just as record fuel costs squeeze airline profits globally.
In return, Shanghai-based China Eastern, which has made losses in three of the last five years, would get much-needed cash, international expertise and industry know-how.
China Eastern shares traded at HK$6.73 on Monday, stoking shareholder frustration even though the stock had rallied to a life high of HK$10.50 in September on news of the deal.
The public war of words between the two rival airlines may have undermined China’s plans to restructure its commercial aviation industry. Foreign investors may be more reluctant to get into a sector if Beijing fails to clarify ownership laws, even if the industry is growing at 16 percent a year.
“Whatever the outcome, the country’s aviation policy is as confused as ever,” Merrill Lynch’s Paul Dewberry said.
Air China’s intervention -- the country’s leading airline is keen to create a Chinese supercarrier -- contradicts Beijing’s policy of introducing international expertise in aviation.
The appointment of Air China’s ex-chairman, Li Jiaxiang, to the post of the country’s top aviation regulator suggests Air China could get the upper hand in years to come.
“It’ll reflect very poorly on Chinese officials if the deal is scuttled,” said Shukor Yusof, Standard & Poor’s Singapore-based regional aviation analyst.
Singapore Airlines is no stranger to failed acquisitions.
In 2000, it took a quarter of Air New Zealand in a bid to expand its Australasian foothold, but the carrier faltered and Singapore Air had to cut back its stake years later.
It is also considering selling a 49 percent stake in Virgin Atlantic that it bought for 600 million pound ($1.2 billion) in 1999, after the alliance failed to blossom.
But some analysts say don’t count Singapore Air out -- yet.
“This is really about politics, not economics, so it’s hard to predict,” said Teng Ngiek Lian, chief executive of Target Asset Management, which manages about US$3 billion in Asian equity and owns Singapore Airlines stock.
“I don’t see anybody else providing a better fit for China Eastern.” (Additional reporting by Edwin Chan in HONG KONG, Samuel Shen and George Chen in SHANGHAI; editing by Edwin Chan and Ian Geoghegan)
As foreign interest in the Saudi stock market reaches unprecedented levels, international investment houses are looking to develop products designed to provide western institutional investors with new means of gaining access to the booming Gulf’s largest bourse.
The kingdom’s financial services sector has gone through a dramatic transformation in the past couple of years as it has been liberalised and opened up to foreign institutions. But direct investment in the Tadawul All-share index is restricted to Saudi residents and citizens of the other five Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states.
Recently, however, licensed investment houses have begun testing products that will go some way to meeting demand from western investors desperate to gain exposure to the kingdom’s oil-fuelled boom and tap into the high liquidity of the domestic market in the GCC’s most populous nation.
Foreign investors can access a few Saudi mutual funds, but that sector is underdeveloped and accounts for just 2 per cent of the market capitalisation of the companies listed on the exchange.
Change, however, is gradually under way. Since late 2005, the Capital Market Authority, the Saudi regulator, has authorised 79 investment companies, including Saudi firms, joint ventures and regional and western groups such as Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.
Last month, HSBC became the first of the international entrants to launch products primarily aimed at western institutions.
Its two open-ended funds track the group’s newly launched 36-stock equity index and its 11-share petrochemical index, respectively.
Since December 10, the funds have raised a combined total of $550m, 80 per cent of which has been in foreign institutional investment, says Osama Shaker, head of investment at HSBC Saudi Arabia.
Other investment houses are expected to follow suit, with the hope that the CMA will ultimately authorise products that will enable western investors to stock-pick for themselves.
Deutsche Bank, together with Morgan Stanley - which sealed a joint venture with The Capital Group, a Saudi investment company, earlier this year - are among others planning to offer products specifically targeting western investors.
Abdulrahman al-Tuwaijri, CMA chairman, said the regulator would gradually “allow some funds to be established by licensed firms through which investment from outside the kingdom would be allowed in a transparent fashion”.
His comments were welcomed by bankers, but he set no timeframe for when foreign investors would be allowed to invest directly in the bourse.
Cautious Saudi authorities are concerned about attracting “hot money” - cash moved quickly from one investment to another to capitalise quickly on returns - and have viewed the bourse as a way of distributing wealth to Saudis, analysts say.
Still, investment houses will be innovating with mutual fund-type products that receive regulatory approval in the current environment, while also planning for the future.
Mr Shaker says: “Definitely HSBC would be among those looking at products to allow foreign stock-picking, but one thing we have to make people aware of is this is not on the agenda of the CMA. They want to go about it gradually, they don’t want to move from A to C immediately, they want to go A, B, C; we are at B, I would say.”
The Tadawul has enjoyed a recent bounce and is up about 43 per cent over 12 months, following a volatile period. There was a spectacular crash in 2006, after retail investors pulled out en masse from an overheating market, wiping $500bn off the market’s peak value of $834bn.
There were more than 20 initial public offerings in 2007, double the previous year’s tally, and the market value of Tadawul-listed companies is back to about $516bn.
Another three large IPOs are expected in coming months, including the sale of a 70 per cent stake in al Inma Bank, which is being launched by the government; a 50 per cent sale of Ma’aden, a state-owned mining company; and a 40 per cent sale of the consortium led by Zain Group (Kuwait Telecommunications).
The combined value of these IPOs could be more than $6.5bn, according to one analyst.
Jamal al Kishi, chief executive of Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia, says: “We are confident that the interest in investing in Saudi-listed stocks is frankly immense from institutional investors abroad.
“There is value in investing in some of the Saudi-listed companies - tremendous value - and the growth potential that exists in Saudi Arabia across various industries and segments makes for a very compelling investment proposition.”
Mr al Kishi says DSSA is “pondering a number of initiatives” that would allow international investors to access the market.
“We are very keen ourselves on doing this as soon as we can,” he says. He adds “there’s no escaping” the need for the market to open up as a way for the kingdom to attract foreign direct investment and integrate with the global economy.
Record oil prices have seen Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product grow from $188.6bn in 2002 to $348.7bn in 2006 and few anticipate oil prices will dip dramatically any time soon.
The economy’s growth has also been boosted by massive internal demand and government spending. The 2008 budget, announced in December, projects that spending this year will be $109.3bn and revenue $120bn.
BEIJING - THE Chinese art of feng shui, a form of geomancy once banned by the Chinese Communist Party as a superstition, has now found its way on to the school curriculum in China, a newspaper said on Tuesday.
A high school in Xiamen, in the rich southeastern province of Fujia, had started a course in feng shui, long practised by Chinese communities outside China, ‘for the first time”, the Beijing News said.
The basic premise of feng shui (wind water) is that one’s environment influences life, giving profound importance to the position of furniture in a room, for instance, or the direction a building faces.
Highly paid feng shui masters are routinely called in by architects in Hong Kong before a building is planned.
The practice was banned as a superstition after China’s Communists took power in 1949, but it has since seen a revival.
‘Traditional feng shui culture has its good features as well as its bad ones,’ Xiong Yongliang, a teacher in the school who wrote a textbook for the course, was quoted as saying. He did not elaborate.
The newspaper also said students taking this course found feng shui ‘interesting and practical’.
In May, newspapers reported that some Chinese Communist officials turned to feng shui masters for advice to ward off ‘evil spirits’ from competitors and get a better chance of promotion amid a nationwide job reshuffle.
One senior official in eastern Zhejiang province moved his ancestors’ tombs thousands of miles to the foot of the famed Tian Shan mountain in the northwestern region of Xinjiang in an attempt to improve his career prospects. -- REUTERS
Japan Stocks Drop for 5th Day on Concern Global Growth to Slow
By Patrick Rial and Satoshi Kawano
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell for a fifth day, led by commodities companies and automakers, after crude oil declined and on mounting concern the global economy is slowing.
Mitsubishi Corp., which derives more than half of its profit from commodities dealing, slid to the lowest since August. Honda Motor Co., which gets more than half its sales from North America, slumped 2.2 percent.
Crude oil prices dropped by the most in six weeks yesterday, and economic reports in the past five days have shown that U.S. unemployment rose to a two-year high in December, while a measure of European economic confidence fell to a two-year low.
``The worsening unemployment situation in the U.S. is going to drag down consumer spending there, which makes up a huge portion of the global economy,'' said Hiroshi Arano, who helps oversee $26 billion at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``The coming slowdown is going to affect developed and developing countries alike, so investors are cutting their positions in companies geared to the economic cycle.''
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 41.81, or 0.3 percent, to 14,458.74 at the 11 a.m. break in Tokyo. The broader Topix index fell 2.01, or 0.1 percent, to 1,390.70.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. led marine-transport companies higher after Deutsche Bank AG recommended investors ``buy'' shares of the three largest companies and the Baltic Dry Index climbed for the first time in three weeks.
European Sentiment
Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's largest trading company, lost 20 yen, or 0.7 percent, to 2,885. Honda dropped 80 yen, or 2.2 percent, to 3,490, the lowest since Aug. 17. Fanuc Ltd., the world's largest maker of industrial robots, fell 270 yen, or 2.6 percent, to 9,950.
Crude oil for February delivery fell 2.9 percent to $95.09 a barrel in New York, the biggest drop since Nov. 28. The decline came amid speculation slowing global economic growth will reduce demand for commodities.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro area slipped to 104.7, the lowest since March 2006, from 104.8 in November, the European Commission in Brussels said yesterday.
Elsewhere, Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said that ``negative'' signals on the U.S. economy are increasing and that he expects ``weak'' growth in the first half of the year.
Companies whose earnings are relatively immune to a global slowdown advanced. Kao Corp., Japan's largest maker of household and personal care products, climbed 80 yen, or 2.5 percent, to 3,350. East Japan Railway Co., the country's biggest train operator, surged 31,000 yen, or 3.5 percent, to 928,000, the steepest rally since April.
Mitsui O.S.K., Japan's second-largest shipping line, gained 45 yen, or 3.5 percent, to 1,328. Kawasaki Kisen K.K., the third-biggest, climbed 43 yen, or 4.5 percent, to 1,004. Nippon Yusen K.K. the largest, rose 22 yen, or 2.7 percent, to 838.
Electronics Retailers
Seigo Ando, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo, rated shares of all three companies ``buy'' in new coverage. The Baltic Dry Index, a benchmark for the price of shipping bulk commodities, rose 0.3 percent yesterday, its first gain since Dec. 13.
Best Denki Co. jumped 21 yen, or 2.9 percent, to 736 after the Nikkei newspaper said Edion Corp., Japan's second-largest electronics retailer, proposed a capital tie-up.
Edion will boost its stake in Best to as much as 10 percent from 3 percent currently, to counter Yamada Denki Co.'s expanding relationship with Best Denki, the Nikkei said.
Edion added 25 yen, or 2.2 percent, to 1,178. Yamada dropped 180 yen, or 1.6 percent, to 11,380.
Blu-ray Format
Sony Corp., developer of Blu-ray video technology, rose for a second day after Time Warner Inc. announced it would back Sony's technology exclusively and stop making video discs using Toshiba Corp.'s HD DVD format. The shares jumped 140 yen, or 2.4 percent, to 5,970, extending yesterday's 0.7 percent gain.
``The HD DVD/Blu-ray format war could now be entering its final phase, following Warner Bros' decision to support the latter exclusively,'' Eiichi Katayama, an analyst in Tokyo at Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in a note to clients dated yesterday. ``We expect to see Sony move onto the offensive in 2008.''
Kurita Water Industries Ltd., which makes pure water used to make liquid-crystal displays, gained 120 yen, or 3.7 percent, to 3,350 after the Nikkei said the company will invest more than 50 billion yen ($458 million) by 2010 to expand its operations at one of Sharp Corp.'s manufacturing sites.
Nikkei futures expiring in March advanced 0.2 percent to 14,490 in Osaka and were little changed at 14,490 in Singapore.
Chinese firms shortlisted for $2bn Singapore power deal
7 January 2008
Huaneng Power International, the mainland's largest power company, and Hong Kong-based electricity producer Hongkong Electric are among four companies shortlisted by the Singaporean government as potential bidders for sale of the city-state's US$2 billion Tuas Power Station, the South China Morning Post, reported. Japanese trading house Marubeni Corp and Australian investment bank Macquarie are the other bidders being considered. Tuas accounts for 25% of Singapore's total power generation capacity and had US$1.6 billion in revenue last year. Temasek, the investment arm of the Singapore government, said it expected to have the Tuas power station sold by March.
Jiutian Chemical Off 9.5%; S$0.35 Support Tipped (2008/01/08 12:41PM) 0441 GMT [Dow Jones] Jiutian Chemical (C8R.SG) down 9.5% at S$0.38 on heavy volume, falling below S$0.40 level for first time since August. Market observer attributes share price weakness to ongoing concerns over demand for one of company’s key products, DMF; “there are concerns on whether there will be continued strong demand for DMF because of a weaker export market in China. But that might not directly impact Jiutian because it doesn’t export, though it might affect its competitors, leading to an oversupply in China and causing prices to weaken.” Company started commercial production of DMF in October using its new plant, which is 4X bigger than previous facilities. Immediate support tipped at Aug. 17 low of S$0.35. (FKH)
BEIJING, Jan. 8 -- US financial services firm Morgan Stanley plans to sell its entire stake in China International Capital Corp (CICC), the nation's first investment bank, sources close to the two companies said yesterday.
The unnamed sources confirmed a report by Hong Kong-based Ta Kung Pao that the US investment bank plans to sell its stake in CICC and is in talks with private equity firms to find a buyer. The two firms have agreed that the buyer of the stake cannot be an investment bank.
Morgan Stanley currently holds a 34.4 percent stake in CICC, but with a limited role in the investment bank. The sources said the US firm might sell its entire stake in CICC and invest in another local brokerage.
Earlier in December, local media reported that the global financial services firm was planning to buy a 33.5 percent stake in Shanghai-based China Fortune Securities for 4 billion yuan.
The reports said Morgan Stanley had signed an agreement with China Fortune Securities to set up a joint venture investment bank and that Morgan Stanley might be interested in a controlling stake.
But under new rules issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on December 28, the maximum stake foreign investors can hold in a local securities firm will remain at around 33.3 percent, despite lower barriers in other areas.
China Fortune Securities ranks 48th among 104 brokerages, with registered capital of 1 billion yuan by the end of 2006, according to the CSRC.
The CSRC's new rules issued on December 28 also require 1.2 billion yuan in net capital in the last year for a securities firm if it wants to set up a subsidiary.
"To meet the requirement, Morgan Stanley and China Fortune might increase their net capital before they set up a joint venture investment bank," said Liang Jing, an analyst with Guotai Jun'an Securities. "The new rule may not be a big problem for Morgan Stanley and China Fortune."
Morgan Stanley is expected to become one of the first foreign firms to invest in a local securities firm in 2008, after the government resumed approvals of foreign joint ventures based on the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue.
The government banned international companies from investing in local securities firms in October 2006, concerned that it would threaten local brokerages recovering from a four-year slump. Before the ban, UBS and Goldman Sachs Group Inc were the only foreign firms with brokerages in the country.
China's securities industry scored big money last year thanks to the bullish stock market. By June 2007, 24 leading brokerages had made a total net profit of 37.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 425 percent.
Shanghai-listed CITIC Securities yesterday predicted fivefold net profit growth for 2007 compared with 2006. The company posted a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan in 2006.
In a rare movement, China Eastern Airlines said it foresaw "a gloomy results from a vote on the proposed sale of shares to Singapore Airlines and Temasek."
In an email delivered to China Daily this morning, China Eastern said that the sales proposal will "very likely be put off temporarily".
According to the email, a vast number of shareholders that previously supported the deal have "changed their minds" after China National Aviation Corp (CNAC), Air China's parent company, said on Sunday it plans to make a counter offer of HK$5 per share for China Eastern Airlines.
The counter offer is a third higher than the HK$3.8 offered by Singapore Airlines if the China Eastern-Singapore Airlines deal is rejected.
In addition, CNAC, which owns a 12.07 percent stake in China Eastern, is expected to vote against the deal, and as such the deal is not likely to pass, said China Eastern in the statement. The shareholder meeting to discuss the deal will be held at 1:30 pm today as scheduled. Trading of both A and H shares of China Eastern is suspended today.
China Eastern said in a statement to the Shanghai Stock Exchange today that the company has not received any "formal" similar proposal from other suitors.
In a statement last night, China Eastern challenged the authenticity of the proposal raised by CNAC and suggesting CNAC hopes to block cooperation with Singapore Airlines.
Mumbai, Jan 8 - Taking analysts by surprise, a key Indian equities market index topped the 21,000-point mark for the first time ever during intra-day trading Tuesday, maintaining the momentum in the New Year.
Soon after trading commenced, the sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) scaled to a new peak of 21,077.53 points, against the previous day's close at 20,812.65.
The index was ruling slightly lower 21,025.68 points by mid-morning Tuersday - but still higher by 213.03 points, or 1.02 percent, over the previous close, as hectic buying was witnessed across sectors.
While small-cap shares were up 1.86 percent, mid-cap scrips were also not far behind with a gain of 1.28 percent over the previous day's close, data with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) showed.
Reliance Communications, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, ITC, Larsen and Toubro, State Bank of India, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Housing Development Finance Corp and Reliance Energy were among the top Sensex gainers.
Software major Wipro and aluminium maker Hindalco were the only two Sensex shares that were trading in the red.
SINGAPORE, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Shares of fuel trader Chemoil (CHEL.SI: Quote, Profile, Research) fell as much as 15.5 percent to 43 U.S. cents with 5.5 million traded after the firm said its founder and chief executive Robert Chandran died in a helicopter accident in Indonesia on Monday.
UBS said in a client note that it believed succession planning prior to the accident was limited.
"While we believe enough structure is in place such that day-to-day operations should not be affected, Chemoil's medium term plans and strategic direction would be uncertain," said UBS analyst Cheryl Lee.
At 0213 GMT Chemoil shares were trading down 8.7 percent at 47 U.S. cents.
Chandran was the head of the biggest supplier of marine fuel in the Americas with annual revenue of $4.4 billion.
0204 GMT - Straits Times Index .STI up 0.56 percent. (Reporting by Melanie Lee; Editing by Ovais Subhani)
先说减税，正是今时不同往日。01年面对科网股泡沫爆破衍生之后遗症，以及「911」事件等冲击，也熬得过去，此因布殊政府接过克林顿时期剩下来大把银两(财政盈余估计1万亿美元)，遂有「水」去救火。可是，目前美国库空虚，试问钱从何来？如果发债，岂不变成与民争利，抵销了部份减息的好处？若果出现所谓「排挤效应」(crowding out effect )，令做生意者或消费者叫苦连天，不难得不偿失。
BEIJING (Reuters) - Xing Houyuan’s advice to investors who seek her out is patient and practical: do due diligence on any potential partner, clarify its ties to the government, and make sure you control any joint venture.
Her words would have sounded familiar to any firm trying to enter China in the 1980s and 1990s. But the nervous-looking man who had just shown Xing his proposal was Chinese, and he was looking to do business in Africa.
While Beijing has pushed aggressively to win major mining, oil and hydroelectric projects around the world, it is only now starting to pay attention the smaller companies that supply everything from cement to explosives for these mega projects.
Xing is director of multinational business at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, which is affiliated with China’s Ministry of Commerce. The academy offers policy analysis, market information, due diligence reports and advice -- originally for foreigners seeking to invest in China and now also for Chinese firms seeking to do business abroad.
Even though investment by small and mid-sized firms in Africa has taken off in the last six or seven years, the Chinese government only started to pay attention in 2006, when it hosted a gathering of African leaders in Beijing, Xing said.
While deals by big state firms get the most attention, smaller, private firms have been quicker to spot opportunities abroad, just as they have done inside China in the last decade. Oil, metals and telecoms are the most promising sectors in Africa, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, another government-backed research institute.
“Private companies are the most proactive in our own economy, and in many ways, the African market is suited to smaller players,” Xing said. “Small and private companies are more likely to find projects and partners that fit their capability.”
Last year, for the first time, Africa accounted for the greatest number of Chinese deals signed overseas. But the continent’s share of China’s foreign investment actually shrank, to 3 percent in 2006 versus 7 percent in 2005, indicating a shift toward smaller deals.
DISPENSING ADVICE
To help these smaller businesses, the government organized a Sino-African investment conference in Beijing in December, where Xing dispensed advice to people like the executive from a small steel company in Tangshan, east of Beijing, who was looking into investing an iron ore mine in Libya.
Beware of partners who can’t deliver what they promise, Xing told the steel executive.
Other attendees ranged from the expected -- bankers hoping to lend to successful projects -- to the surprising. A representative from textile firm Hodo Group wanted information on mining projects in Madagascar.
China is also focusing on what it calls “development zones” in areas where Chinese investment is concentrated in Africa, where it aims to ease small and medium companies’ access to credit and government channels.
“We are setting up the zones to help them access resources, and find and get access to local governments, partners and projects that are suitable to their size,” Xing told Reuters.
“The governments there like it because they have an intermediary bigger than just that one company and we like it because we can keep track of our companies, especially if there is a problem.”
Keeping track of these smaller players, which are becoming the face of China in Africa, is increasingly important to maintaining Beijing’s effort to secure resources in Africa without exploiting its people.
While Zambia’s Chambishi copper mine, operated by China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group Co Ltd (CNMC), has seen disputes over wages and safety, one of the worst accidents was not in the mine itself but at an explosives supplier, Beijing General Research Institute of Mining and Mettallurgy (BGRIMM), where an explosion killed 46 workers in 2005.
And some Chinese contractors who have won infrastructure deals with the lowest bids have come in late and well over budget, as they failed to anticipate safety and labor regulations.
“In a broad sense, as Chinese companies flood into Africa, there is a big risk of disorderliness. There’s a big risk that unfavorable incidents could turn hearts and minds against China,” Xing said.
COPPER BELT
Beijing has designated Zambia’s Copper Belt, where the Chambishi mine has attracted a cluster of companies in service and secondary industries, as its first development zone in Africa. Chinese companies have signed deals to invest a total of $900 million in the region, according to the Zambian government.
“It’s a huge and complex project and it has the potential to be disorderly. Instead we decided to make it a model for how Chinese can participate in the industrialization of Africa,” Xing said.
A second zone would be in Nigeria, where Chinese oil firm CNOOC Ltd. last year purchased a $2.7 billion stake in the Akpo field, Xing said. The African oil giant is a magnet for Chinese traders selling clothing, shoes and electronics.
Chinese investment in Africa hit $6.4 billion at the end of last year as firms from giant telecoms gear maker Huawei Technologies to small players like Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Nickel Materials Co. made inroads around the continent.
African economies are expected to grow faster in the first quarter of this century than they did in the past 25 years, creating ample opportunities for Chinese firms, said Yao Guimei, an Africa researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Big Sino-African deals have diversified away from infrastructure. This year, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China agreed to pay $5.6 billion for a 20 percent stake in South Africa’s Standard Bank -- a move which should help Chinese investment in the rest of the continent.
The Sino-African investment conference in Beijing in December coincided -- perhaps not coincidentally -- with a meeting of European and African leaders in Lisbon, where Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade warned a “slow, bureaucratic” Europe that it risked being left behind by China and India in the race to invest in Africa,
Despite hand wringing in some European capitals over China’s expansion in Africa, Joshua Eisenman, a fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, said there was probably more complementarity than competition.
“I don’t think that China’s efforts in Africa necessarily run contrary to those of the United States and Europe because, let’s face it, when was the last time the United States or Europe built infrastructure in Africa?” he said.
“I don’t see it as a zero sum game. They are involved in different things.”
Weaker US dollar pushing up cost for Las Vegas Sands
Monday, January 7, 2008
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) said that despite the constricted credit market, it has secured more than US$3.7 billion ($5.3 billion) in loans to build Marina Bay Sands, its proposed integrated resort in Singapore.
The financing package for the complex also includes a capital contribution of about US$558 million in equity from LVS, according to a United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) document filed last Friday.
Mr William Weidner, president and chief operating officer of LVS, said the company would likely not have been able to convince lenders if the project had been outside of Asia.
"We are lucky to have such a strong Singaporean economy as a backdrop," he said.
Mr Weidner said the cost of the Singapore project has increased slightly because of the weakened US dollar and the rise of building and material costs in Singapore's booming economy.
Although he declined to discuss cost details, according to last Friday's SEC figures, the cost of the project could grow to as much as US$4.6 billion, up from the US$3.6 billion that was first announced.
The Singapore project includes plans for 2,500 hotel rooms; 1.2 million square feet of flexible meeting, convention and exhibition space; 1 million square feet of retail space; and three large entertainment venues.
The Marina Bay Sands is scheduled to open next year.
The project represents Sands' significant push into the Asian market. Last year, the Las Vegas-based company — led by Mr Sheldon Adelson — opened the Venetian Macao, a massive casino hotel in Macau.
LVS plans to retire the debt five to eight years after the facility opens, Mr Weidner said. — The Wall Street Journal
China Eastern Air Chairman: Won’t Consider Air China As Investor
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China Eastern Airlines Corp. (CEA) Chairman Li Fenghua said Tuesday his airline still believes Singapore Airlines Ltd. is the best potential investor for the Shanghai-based carrier and won’t consider Air China Ltd. as a future strategic partner.
Li made the comments at a press conference after China Eastern Airlines’ shareholders earlier Tuesday rejected a proposal to sell a 24% stake to Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Temasek Holdings Pte.
The widely-anticipated outcome clears the way for China National Aviation Holding Co., parent of Air China Ltd., to offer a counterbid for China Eastern that may potentially involve Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd..
However, Li said: “China Eastern Airlines won’t introduce Air China as a strategic investor because acquisition among the three largest airliners will hurt China’s aviation industry.”
He also said the outcome was “within my expectations as Air China has been lobbying fund managers recently.”
China Eastern agreed in September to sell the stake to the Singaporeans for a total of HK$7.2 billion (US$921.7 million), or HK$3.80 a share, after the deal was cleared by the Chinese cabinet.
被美军飞机在全球各地撞下的鸟儿最终都会出现在卡拉•德弗(Carla Dove)清早接收的信件中。德弗是华盛顿国家自然博物馆(National Museum of Natural History)羽毛鉴定试验室(Feather Identification Lab)的项目负责人。45岁的德弗有一头蓬松的金发，说起话来带着柔和的弗吉尼亚口音。她将今早收到的东西称为“血团”(snarge，这个词是粘稠物snot和残余garbage的合成。)
上个月，希科尔收到了一袋羽毛和一只爪子，这是从俄克拉荷马阿尔特斯空军基地(Altus Air Force Base)驶出的空中加油机KC-135R与一只鸟碰撞的残迹。这种毛茸茸的杏黄色胸羽马上让人想到了哀鸠。她爬上梯子，从高处拉出了一个塞得满满的抽屉，并和一支末端带白边的尾羽放在一起──这根羽毛看起来像是曾穿过飞机的发动机。
约翰逊中校寄来的那两只鸟的情况是，没有足够的羽毛来进行显微镜比对。于是，这块浸血的蓝布就来到了南茜•罗特泽尔(Nancy Rotzel)手中，28岁的罗特泽尔是来自威斯康星州阿普尔顿的的分子学专家。利用联邦航空局(Federal Aviation Administration)提供的一台昂贵仪器，罗特泽尔可以从样本中提取DNA，并将其与生命数据系统条形码(Barcode of Life Data Systems)进行匹配。该条形码收集了35,105种动植物的DNA信息。
股东大会结果给雄心勃勃的新加坡航空带来了重大打击，也为中国航空集团公司(China National Aviation Holding Company)向东方航空发出股权收购报价扫清了道路，且预计国泰航空有限公司(Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd.)也可能加入该交易。中国航空集团是中国国际航空股份有限公司(Air China Ltd.)的母公司。
Merrill Lynch says U.S. has entered full-blown recession
The US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.
Merrill, itself one of Wall Street's biggest casualties of the sub-prime crisis, is the first major bank to declare that a recession in the world's biggest economy is now underway.
David Rosenberg, the bank's chief North American economist, argues that a weakening employment picture and declining retail sales signal the economy has tipped into its first month of recession.
Mr Rosenberg, who is well-respected on Wall Street, argues: "According to our analysis, this [recession] isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality."
His comments are the strongest sign yet that the gloom on Wall Street over the US economy is deepening as the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the credit rout show little sign of easing.
Mr Rosenberg points to a whole batch of negative data to support his analysis, including the four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) - employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing.
Mr Rosenberg notes that although the NEBR will be the final arbiter of any recession, such confirmation may be two years away as it typically waits for conclusive evidence including benchmark revisions.
However, he believes that all four of these barometers "seem to have peaked around the November-December period, strongly suggesting that we are actually into the first month of a recession."
His view is at odds with some otherl forecasts on Wall Street, with Lehman Brothers going so far as to issue ten reasons why the US economy will not enter into a recession.
Mr Rosenberg argued that "This isn't about 'labels.' What is important about recessions is that while each may have its own set of particular characteristics, there are also unmistakable investment patterns that emerge time and time again."
His views were cemented by last week's jobs numbers, which showed the unemployment rate hitting 5pc, an increase of 13pc year-on-year and the highest in two years.
Despite the increasingly weak economic data, Treasury Secretary Henry "Hank" Paulson said the immediate goal of the Bush administration "is to minimize the impact of the US housing downturn on the economy."
Apparently dismissing calls for immediate tax cuts amid suggestions that President George W Bush might announce a fiscal stimulus package as early as his annual State of the Union address later this month, Mr Paulson said it is more important to get policy right rather than announced policy changes quickly.
He said that no single policy or action would undo the "excesses" of recent years, and urged for patience as the next steps to aid the country's economy were revaluated.
However he noted that officials within the Bush administration "recognise the risks we face" and will try to keep the economy "as strong as possible as we weather this housing correction."
The issue of the faltering nature of the US economy continues to play a large part in the race to replace President Bush, with the majority of candidates seeing it as a key battleground.
Ahead of tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, Democratic contender Hillary Clinton said the US middle class is under increasing economic pressure, as costs rise and house prices wane.
Oil $200 Options Rise 10-Fold in Bet on Higher Crude (Update5)
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The fastest-growing bet in the oil market these days is that the price of crude will double to $200 a barrel by the end of the year.
Options to buy oil for $200 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10-fold in the past two months to 5,533 contracts, a record increase for any similar period. The contracts, the cheapest way to speculate in energy markets, appreciated 36 percent since early December as crude futures reached a record $100.09 on Jan. 3.
While analysts at Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG say the slowing U.S. economy will lead to the biggest drop in prices since 2001, the options show some traders expect oil to rise for a seventh straight year. Demand will increase 2.5 percent in 2008, according to the International Energy Agency. U.S. inventories fell to a three-year low on Dec. 28. Production from Mexico is declining and Saudi Arabia is behind schedule in opening its newest field.
``One hundred dollars a barrel is actually 14.9 cents a cup, so we're still talking about oil being remarkably cheap,'' said Matthew R. Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International, a Houston-based investment bank that focuses on energy. Inventories ``are tight as a drum and I don't see how we get out of this box,'' he said in a Bloomberg television interview last week. ``Demand clearly isn't starting to slow down.''
Global Consumption
World consumption will rise to 87.8 million barrels a day this year, 2.1 million more than in 2007, or about the same amount that Nigeria supplies, according to the Paris-based IEA, an adviser to oil-consuming nations. Demand from China alone will increase 5.7 percent to 8 million barrels a day as imports expand to support an economy that's likely to grow 11 percent, the IEA said.
Oil suppliers are straining to increase production. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, said last week that the 500,000 barrel-a-day Khursaniyah oilfield missed a December start date. Brazil's Tupi field, the second-largest find of the past two decades, lies more than eight kilometers (five miles) below the ocean surface and will take at least five years to develop.
Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state oil monopoly, suffered a three-year, 40 percent decline at its Cantarell field, the world's third-largest. Fighting in Nigeria reduced production 11 percent since December 2005 to 2.18 million barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
U.S. Inventories
Speculators don't require prices to rise all the way to $200 to make money from options since they can sell the contracts on to others as their value rises. Nymex oil futures for February delivery tumbled $2.71 to $95.20 a barrel at 1:24 p.m. in New York on concern the economy is weakening. December oil was at $91.75.
Crude futures rose 2 percent in the first three trading days of the new year. U.S. crude inventories fell to a three-year low of 289.6 million barrels on Dec. 28, the Energy Department said.
``We haven't got to $100 on just a whim,'' said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London. ``This is at heart also about longer-term concerns that supply capacity investment needs higher prices to keep up with demand growth.''
Barclays forecasts oil will average $87.40 a barrel this year, a 21 percent increase from the 2007 average.
The Nymex options, which give speculators the right to buy 1,000 barrels of oil in December, are becoming a favorite for traders even if they don't expect crude to reach $200 because they are a cheaper way to speculate than using futures contracts. Options expire worthless if crude fails to reach the ``strike'' price. There were 500 of the options on Nov. 7.
`Insurance' Bet
The price of the options rose as high as $550 last week before closing at $300 on Jan. 4, or 30 cents a barrel. The December futures to purchase 1,000 barrels in December rose 3.5 percent to $94,010, or $94 a barrel.
``The most common analogy used to describe options is that it represents insurance'' against ``low probability'' events, said Tim Evans, a Citigroup Global Markets Inc. energy analyst in New York.
The number of outstanding options contracts to buy March oil at $200 has almost doubled to 3,250 contracts since Dec. 26. They were valued at 2 cents a barrel today.
Oil forecasters say there's no chance of $200 crude, as the U.S., which consumes a quarter of the world's oil, slows. Prices will average $78 a barrel this year, 20 percent below the current level, and $75 in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The last time prices fell that much was in 2001, when they dropped 26 percent.
Jobless Rate
Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley in New York expect the U.S. economy, the world's largest, will slip into recession this year. The jobless rate rose to 5 percent in December, the highest in two years. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to the lowest level in almost five years in December.
The U.S. probably expanded 1 percent last quarter, and gross domestic product will grow 2.3 percent in 2008, according to the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Oil is overpriced, given the outlook for the economy, said Jan Stuart, an analyst at UBS AG in New York. He forecasts an average price of $74 a barrel this year, little changed from 2007. Merrill Lynch's Francisco Blanch predicts $78 in the fourth quarter.
``I am afraid that we are going to see an economic slowdown that we have not seen the beginning of yet that will take some significant amount of oil demand off the table,'' Stuart said in a Bloomberg television interview Jan. 2.
Most strategists didn't foresee last year's 57 percent gain. Crude traded at an average of $72.36 in 2007. A Bloomberg survey of 29 analysts in September 2006 forecast a median price of $64.
Higher Numbers
``Going through $100 means that people are seeking more protection against a higher number,'' said Michael Lewis, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. Deutsche Bank expects oil to fall to about $80 a barrel.
Options trading indicates that the likelihood of crude reaching $125 a barrel in December has almost doubled since Dec. 25, to 18 percent, Lewis said.
While $200 may remain an outside chance, Simmons at Simmons & Co. showed he's willing to make that bet. He wagered $5,000 with New York Times columnist John Tierney in August 2005 that oil would average at least $200 a barrel in 2010.
The IEA said on Nov. 7 that under a high-growth scenario, oil import prices will rise to $150 a barrel by 2030 in nominal terms, or $87 a barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006-dollar terms.
``We should be prepared to see higher oil prices because the latest report I read from the International Energy Agency is very worrying,'' Andris Piebalgs, the European Union's Energy Commissioner, said while visiting a power plant in the Netherlands today. ``I would say $120 a barrel, that is what I am afraid of.''
Blow to rate cut hopes after central banks sound warning over threat from inflationGary Duncan, Economics Editor The world’s leading central banks yesterday emphasised their vigilance against inflation in the face of soaring food and energy costs, dampening market hopes of aggressive interest rate cuts in response to financial upheavals.
In a hawkish summary of talks among the Group of 10 central banks from leading economies, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, talked up world growth prospects and sounded a warning against complacency over inflation.
Mr Trichet, the G10’s chairman, also told big financial institutions that they must shoulder responsibility for tackling money market stresses and the global credit squeeze, and not expect all the onus to fall solely on central banks and governments.
The ECB chief’s comments came as Gordon Brown yesterday reiterated his warning over the “dangerous” year ahead for Britain’s economy and predicted “what is clearly several months of global financial turbulence”.
Mr Trichet, however, sought to soothe global markets’ fears over the credit squeeze and the US sub-prime loans debacle with a reassuring assessment of the outlook.
While acknowledging that risks to world growth were “clearly on the downside”, he said the G10’s view was that: “We see growth continuing at a pace which is quite robust — even if there is a little bit of slowing down.”
The scale of any toll on the global economy from money market strains and the credit squeeze was “something that still has to be fully understood”. Mr Trichet added: “The possible consequences for the real economy are still open.”
He left little doubt, however, of the central banks’ persistent concerns over inflationary threats. “The spike in oil prices, the spike of commodity prices, the spike of food prices, are having an effect on headline inflation. The risk of a spiralling of this headline inflation in the medium run was considered by a large number of colleagues as an important risk, calling of course for no complacency.”
Mr Trichet said that the G10 saw a widespread threat that higher energy and food costs could stoke wage demands and lead companies to push up prices, risking an inflationary spiral.
“We have identified . . . in large parts of the global economy the danger of second-round effects,” he noted.
With unprecedented joint action by the central banks to pump extra funds into world money markets to prevent them from seizing up appearing to have been largely successful, the ECB President said that the G10 was “very satisfied with the actions that we embarked upon”.
He left open the question of whether further concerted G10 action to quell market tensions might follow, saying only: “We remain in very close, confident contact in the future, as we have in the past.”
Commercial bankers who attended the weekend’s G10 gathering in Basle for consultations were reported to have welcomed the central banks’ December moves. David Dodge, Governor of Canada’s central bank, said: “The clear message was that what we did in terms of concerted action over the year-end was helpful.”
But in a warning shot to Wall Street and European institutions, Mr Trichet insisted that the private sector must play its own full part in restoring calm, amid persistent stresses in markets, including those for asset-backed securities and commercial paper. “It calls for progressive, appropriate actions by the private sector in particular,” he said.
“We will remain alert, taking into account what we can do, and what we can help, which is permitting the functioning of the market to improve progressively.”
Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, also emphasised last night that there were no instant solutions to the problems of America’s housing slump and the sub-prime crisis, although the US Government would attempt to mitigate the fallout by preventing “avoidable foreclosures”.
“There is no single or simple solution that will undo the excesses of the last few years,” he said in a speech in New York.
Mr Paulson gave warning that the United States was facing an unprecedented wave of 1.8 million sub-prime mortgages issued to poor Americans with low credit ratings which would reset to higher interest rates over the next two years.
China Eastern snub is latest failed Singapore deal
Merrill Lynch, which has a “buy” recommendation on SIA, said the bid’s failure means the Singapore carrier has around S$3 billion in cash, which increases the possibility of a special dividend this year.
SINGAPORE, Jan 8 - Singapore Airlines’ failure to land a stake in China’s No.3 carrier, China Eastern, is the latest overseas setback for the city-state’s government-linked multinationals, although Singapore Inc is unlikely to be deterred in its drive to invest abroad.
Singapore, with Asia’s second-largest per capita income after Japan, has sought in recent years to develop an “external wing” by investing overseas to reduce its dependence on a small home market of fewer than 5 million people.
But its companies have faced numerous setbacks, particularly in Asia, where even existing investments may have to be sold off under pressure from governments wary of the rising prominence of sovereign wealth funds from China, the Middle East and elsewhere.
“I don’t think it has anything to do with Singapore in particular. China, Abu Dhabi tried to buy companies in the U.S. and failed,” said Marshall Gittler, chief Asian strategist for Deutsche Bank private wealth management.
“There’s growing resistance in some circles toward state-owned enterprises in cross-border acquisitions,” he added.
China Eastern’s minority shareholders rejected on Tuesday a deal to sell a 24 percent stake to SIA and its parent Temasek for about $920 million, following a run-up in China Eastern’s share price and opposition led by rival Air China .
The deal agreed with SIA last year, at HK$3.80 a share, is 43 percent below the Chinese carrier’s latest Hong Kong price of HK$6.66.
Analysts said Singapore companies may turn their attention to targets in North America and Europe where the city-state is viewed as a small, friendly, Westernised country that is less threatening than China or the Middle East.
Temasek is in the process of buying up to $5 billion worth of Merrill Lynch & Co shares as part of the U.S. bank’s recapitalisation, while the Government of Singapore Investment Corp will inject 11 billion Swiss francs into UBS.
But other bids have failed.
Last month, Singapore government-backed DBS Group declined to subscribe to rights shares offered by Thailand’s TMB Bank after a failed bid to buy new shares in the lender.
Temasek, which owns 28 percent of DBS, had previously sparked anti-Singapore demonstrations in Bangkok after it bought Thailand’s largest telecom group Shin Corp from the family of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
In Indonesia, Singapore Telecommunications may be forced to sell a stake in Telkomsel after the antitrust watchdog said parent Temasek broke competition law by holding controlling stakes in the country’s two largest mobile operators.
Temasek, the Singapore government’s investment company, owns 56 percent of SingTel, which in turn owns 35 percent of Telkomsel, Indonesia’s largest mobile company. Temasek and SingTel have appealed the ruling.
Eight years ago, SingTel was thwarted in a bid to buy Hong Kong’s dominant phone company by local tycoon Richard Li’s PCCW Ltd . Beijing was perceived in Hong Kong to have favoured a local buyer for the strategic asset.
“They seem to have bad luck, but they should expect it,” Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong, said of Singapore’s M&A woes. “When a sovereign fund goes overseas and makes major investments, I think it’s easy to stir up feelings of protectionism and patriotism.”
But Lun said Singapore Inc is not easily deterred.
State port operator PSA International failed several times before finally landing a stake in rival port Hong Kong’s container terminal in 2005.
“They came back again and again until they got it,” Lun said.
BACK TO DRAWING BOARD
As for Singapore Airlines, analysts said the China Eastern decision was a blow to the carrier’s plans to gain a foothold in fast-growing China although they continue to favour the stock.
“It’s back to the drawing board for Singapore Airlines. There’s no plan B because this means China’s aviation industry is not ready for liberalisation and the opportunities are limited,” said Rohan Suppiah, analyst with Kim Eng Securities.
“This vote is essentially a referendum on how fast China’s aviation landscape can change and how liberalised it is ready to be,” Suppiah said.
Analysts said SIA could still rely on other growth drivers such as increased access to the UK market via the Singapore-UK Open Skies Agreement and budget carrier Tiger Airway’s ventures abroad.
Singapore-based Tiger, in which SIA has a 49 percent stake, has started offering domestic services in Australia and is in the midst of setting up a joint venture low-cost carrier called Incheon Tiger in South Korea.
Merrill Lynch, which has a “buy” recommendation on SIA, said the bid’s failure means the Singapore carrier has around S$3 billion in cash, which increases the possibility of a special dividend this year.
They are mainly in the heart of residential areas.
By Christopher Tan Jan 8, 2008
MOTORISTS can expect to pay more over the next few months to use the roads when five new ERP gantries are up, many in the heart of residential areas.
The gantries are in Upper Bukit Timah Road (outside Hume Park), Toa Payoh Lorong 6, Upper Boon Keng Road, Kallang Bahru Road and Geylang Bahru Road.
All except the ones in Toa Payoh Lorong 6 and Geylang Bahru Road have been completed.
The Land Transport Authority has not announced when these new gantries will be switched on, but already residents are concerned why their neighbourhoods are targetted.
Commenting on the gantry outside Hume Park, Bukit Timah resident Mr Burven Lee, 43, said: 'The road here does get jammed up. But will a gantry solve the problem?'
'My feeling is that it will just redistribute traffic around,' the director of a statutory board added.
Toa Payoh resident 68-year-old retiree Tony Chan wanted to know why the gantry at Toa Payoh Lorong 6 is sited near the entrance to the residential area.
The LTA spokesman explained that the location of the gantry is unlikely to affect residents as it charges motorists entering into Toa Payoh from Braddell Road who add on to the traffic in the area.
He added that if gantries were at exit points, more Toa Payoh residents would be affected. Also it would plug a gap in series of gantries forming an outer cordon around the city.
The new gantries are part of the LTA's plans to have an 'outer cordon' to control traffic going into the city.
High price of DBSS flats mean buyers may have to spend a significant portion of their lives paying off loans
Letter from CHAN HAN JUN
THE recent launch of City View @ Boon Keng and the identification by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) of three more sites in Simei, Toa Payoh and Bedok for such developments has taken the price of public housing to a new level.
When compared to other private properties in the area, it seems the prices offered are cheaper. However, one of the points that needs to be answered is whether this is public or private housing?
All reports about this latest development have labelled it as HDB flats, but are these HDB prices?
As part of its Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS), the HDB has allowed private developers to buy and then build on the sites and sell the flats.
Benefits of this scheme have been widely published in the print media as well as HDB's website.
On paper, it seems a wonderful situation for both the public and the HDB — the public gets to have flats with better quality finishes, while the HDB does not have to run the construction itself.
One of the criteria set by the HDB is that the combined family income of the applicants must be below $8,000. Thus, if a couple buys the most expensive flat at City View @ Boon Keng at just over $700,000, they face the prospect of paying more than $2,000 in monthly instalments based on a 90-per-cent loan over 30 years. They would also have to fork out cash on top of their CPF contributions.
The rationale is the same even if they had bought the average-priced ones at about $500,000.
It seems that unless the applicants have healthy savings, they will be spending a significant portion of their lives paying off their loans.
I believe the HDB might need to review the criteria that it has set for DBSS. If the HDB decides that DBSS is the way to go for Singapore's future housing development, it should take a serious look at the prices that private developers would be setting.
Affordable housing might no longer be realistic if we leave these potential issues unaddressed.
Tension Mounts In The Middle East Ahead Of Bush's Visit To Push For Peace Deal
1/8/2008 11:33:21 AM
Tension mounted in the Middle East on Tuesday, as Israel came under rocket fire from Lebanon and a bomb blast hit a UN peacekeeping patrol in Lebanon, just one day ahead of a visit by U.S. President Bush as part of his three day Middle East mission to push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
Israel is on a high alert in the wake of a call by Al-Qaeda's American spokesman Adam Gadahn on the terror network's fighters to greet Bush with “bombs and booby-trapped vehicles” when he visits the Middle East.
Igniting memories of a war between Israel and the Lebanese militant movement Hezbollah in the summer of 2006, Lebanon fired two rockets into northern Israel on Tuesday.
Revising their initial report that an old rocket exploded in the border town of Shlomi, Israeli police said two Katyusha rockets launched from across the border hit a house and crashed into a nearby street.
Since the explosions occurred during a heavy storm overnight, residents had initially thought they were claps of thunder, Shlomi's Mayor said. The rocket fragments were discovered after daybreak, he said.
Although no one was hurt in the attack, Israel has taken the incident seriously. Calling the rocket fire a “grave aberration,” Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Jerusalem does not intend to allow the status quo in the region to be changed.
No organization has claimed responsibility for the rocket fire yet. The Lebanese political and militant movement Hezbollah and exiled Palestinian groups in Lebanon are suspected. During the 2006 war, Hezbollah militants, Israel's main rival in Lebanon, fired numerous rockets and mortars into northern Israel, and Israel retaliated with air strikes and artillery pounding targets throughout Lebanon.
While the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon said it was investigating the incident, a Lebanese army spokesman and Hezbollah declined to comment.
Separately, at least two people in a UN vehicle were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded on a road between the towns of Rmaileh and Sidon in Lebanon, reports quoting security officials and witnesses said.
Those injured in the blast south of the Lebanese capital Beirut have been identified as Irish peacekeepers, officials said. It was the third attack on the UN peacekeeping force, also called Unifil, since it was expanded to more than 13,000 troops following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, President Bush hopes to kick-start a peace process when he arrives in Israel on Wednesday for his first visit to the region as president. Although the president expressed optimism ahead of his trip, tough questions remain to be tackled before setting any timetable for the peace deal.
The issues of Israeli settlement construction in occupied East Jerusalem and of militant rocket fire into Israeli territory are likely to be part of the agenda, the BBC reported.
On Tuesday, Israel Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and top Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Qurei, along with their negotiating teams, were trying to formalize subcommittees that will negotiate key issues in disputes, including sovereignty over contested Jerusalem, final borders and a solution for Palestinian refugees.
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had agreed at a peace summit in Annapolis in the U.S. last year to try to achieve a two-state solution by the end of 2008.
During the next President's term, baby boomers will begin to retire in earnest. The U.S. Census has predicted that between 2000 and 2010, the number of Americans age 45 to 64 will increase from 62.4 million to 81 million; and those age 65 to 84, from 30.7 million to 34.1 million.
As Americans retire in greater numbers, without some new policy decisions to reverse current trends, the fiscal health of Social Security and Medicare are likely to decline. The costs of chronic and nursing home care increasingly will exceed the ability of the middle class to pay for them, and as the first of the 401(k) generation retire, more and more boomers will confront the reality that they have not saved enough for the retirement they've dreamed about. (For a good overview, see America's Fiscal Future and Retirement Security, by the Government Accountability Office.)
So what do the Presidential candidates have to say about retirement issues? To find out, I scanned eight candidates' position papers and statements and attempted -- sometimes without success -- to get more information from their campaign staffs. The candidates were the five Republicans and three Democrats who have pretty consistently garnered support of 10% or more in national polls: Democrats Senator Hillary Clinton (N.Y.), former Senator John Edwards (N.C.), and Senator Barack Obama (Ill.); and Republicans, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Senator John McCain (Ariz.), former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and former Senator Fred Thompson (Tenn.).
Social Security at the Forefront
Each of the candidates has made some public statement on Social Security and Medicare reform, and several have proposed measures to improve long-term care options and financing. Beyond those issues, the three Democrats have proposed multi-issue retirement platforms. Edwards' 11-point Declaration of Independence for Older Americans includes proposals to address elder abuse and promote creation of "livable communities" for retirees. Obama's Helping America's Seniors includes proposals to encourage retirees to volunteer and protects seniors against financial fraud. Clinton has also released what amounts to a retirement agenda, although her proposals are not bundled into one document.
Social Security, which is expected to start paying out more than it receives in 2017, has attracted the most attention, but few new proposals. Most of the candidates support a "bipartisan process" to seek solutions, and some, including Edwards and McCain, specifically endorse creation of a commission such as the one headed by Alan Greenspan in 1981 to come up with suggestions for reform. Giuliani, Romney, and McCain endorse private accounts, while the three Democrats oppose them. Thompson has outlined a plan to let workers contribute 2% of their wages into private investment accounts and receive a 2.5% employer match.
Huckabee claims his proposal to replace the current income and tax system, including the payroll tax, with a 23% sales tax would solve the financing problem. For people with other resources "who don't need Social Security for the long term," he also suggests the government offer "the option of a one-time buyout, or the opportunity to purchase an annuity" with their Social Security funds, which he says would relieve the long-term pressure on the system. Thompson and some other Republicans want to base future Social Security benefits on the inflation rate rather than on wages, and Thompson has acknowledged the effect of doing this would be to lower benefits for future retirees. Edwards and Obama advocate shoring up Social Security by raising the ceiling on the worker income subject to payroll tax. For 2008, the limit is $102,000.
Medicare Fund in Danger
Considering the potential limitations of Social Security in the future, some candidates have suggested other ways to beef up Americans' retirement income and savings. Obama would exempt seniors with up to $50,000 in income from income tax, arguing that it would improve their quality of life by relieving them of tax preparation, as well as by providing extra cash. The Democrats say they'll scrutinize and probably reform bankruptcy laws to make sure employers don't evade pension obligations.
Clinton's proposals include new laws that would prohibit companies from cutting employee pensions "when they sell off subsidiaries," and creating "American retirement accounts," similar to 401(k)s, with federal matching of up to $1,000 in contributions for families making up to $60,000 and a 50% match for families earning between $60,000 and $100,000.
The Medicare hospital trust fund, predicted to spend more than it receives starting in 2013, is in more immediate danger than Social Security. Cutting health-care costs and emphasizing preventive and chronic care show up as goals in pretty much everyone's position papers. Several of these candidates have released broad health-care reform plans (BusinessWeek.com, 12/14/07) they hope would bring down all medical costs, but few have made specific proposals for Medicare reforms.
A Long Look at Long-Term Care
McCain would change the program's payment systems to "compensate providers for diagnosis, prevention, and care coordination" and offer beneficiaries the choice of a public prescription drug plan as well as the private ones now offered. The three Democrats want to allow the federal government to negotiate prescription drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, and Edwards wants to restrict the companies' direct advertising to consumers.
As boomers retire, long-term care of older and frail Americans also looms as a challenge. Clinton's $5 billion per year long-term care agenda, the most comprehensive offered by a candidate, would provide a $3,000 tax credit to caregivers and double the funding of current caregiver support programs. She would also create consumer advocates to fight long-term-care insurance abuses and help improve nursing home quality, and she would fund recruitment and training of personnel.
My survey suggests that at this point in the campaign, retirement issues rank far from the top of the candidates' agendas. Once the primaries are over and the nominees have been chosen, perhaps a nationally televised debate on retirement would spark more focus and momentum. After all, the Census Bureau reports that in 2006, one-third of all registered voters were in the 45- to 64-year-old age group, and when voters 65 and older are added in, the total rises to fully 50%.
28 comments:
Capitaland proposed an unconditional acquisition of the remaining 33.5% stake in its listed subsidiary Ascott group offering S$989.5m or S$1.73 per Ascott share in cash. The offer price is at a 43% premium to the last traded price and at 41.8% premium to the one month volume weighted average price for Ascott shares. This represents a 16.5% discount to the consensus target price of S$2.01 for Ascott. The acquistion will be funded by bank borrowings.
Capitaland plans to fully integrate Ascott’s business and operations into the CapitaLand Group. This will enable CapitaLand to deploy capital and human resources seamlessly within the CapitaLand Group to maximise its competitive advantage of having a fully integrated real estate and financial services value chain across all property sectors. CapitaLand will also have more flexibility in managing and deploying its mix of residential developments for sale, for corporate leasing and for serviced residences to match demand in different markets and to respond to changes in market dynamics.
Capitaland also stands to benefit from the positive outlook of the serviced residences sector through the increased stake in Ascott Residential trust from 19% to 27%. We believe that the move by Capitaland is in line with their expansion and diversification strategy further strengthening its global presence.
Best Regards
Vikrant Pandey
Investment Analyst
UOB Kay Hian Research
Cathay deals blow to Singapore Air’s China deal
Jan 7, 2008
HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Cathay Pacific dealt a blow on Monday to arch-foe Singapore Airline’s offer for 24 percent of China’s No. 3 airline, revealing it would consider joining partner Air China in a more expensive rival bid.
China Eastern shareholders vote on Tuesday on a stake sale that took more than a year to put together, but Air China’s parent, China National Aviation Corp, has vowed to trump the $920 million Singapore bid by a third.
Air China’s last-ditch attempt raised the stakes in the contest for a carrier that has made losses in three of the past five years, underscoring the lure of an industry growing at more than 16 percent ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
Now, Cathay’s potential entry may have put the final nail in the coffin for rival Singapore Air’s effort.
“If Cathay joins the bid, it will provide CNAC with good financial backing and a stronger reason for an international expansion,” said Kelvin Lau, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research.
CNAC, which owns 3.9 percent of China Eastern but which has more than 12 percent of its Hong Kong stock, plans to vote against the Singapore deal, arguing the sale was done on the cheap.
Singapore Air and China Eastern have said the deal was fair at six times the airline’s end-2006 book value.
“What’s the point of selling the stake at a lower price to a foreign investor?” said a fund manager at Harvest Fund Management Co, which is 20 percent-owned by Deutsche Bank, the eighth-largest holder of China Eastern’s locally-listed A shares.
“Most institutions will veto the plan,” he added, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of being named ahead of the politically sensitive vote.
Analysts said investors now look more favourably on a tie-up between China Eastern and Air China -- the world’s most valuable airline by market capitalisation -- especially now that Cathay has broken a three-month silence on its stand in the matter.
“If Cathay is involved in the transaction, it can replace Singapore Air in providing international expertise to China Eastern,” said a Hong Kong-based analyst at a U.K. brokerage house.
“Cathay is keen to increase its exposure to the China market, and its involvement will prevent Singapore Airline’s access to the Shanghai hub.”
ELEVENTH-HOUR
In an 11th-hour attempt to derail Singapore Air and its parent Temasek’s acquisition of the stake for HK$3.80 a share, CNAC has said it would pay at least HK$5.00 a share if the Singapore deal fails.
If approved, the Singapore Air deal would give the world’s most profitable airline access to China’s booming travel industry ahead of this summer’s Olympic Games, and create a formidable rival to Air China on its home turf -- just as record fuel costs squeeze airline profits globally.
In return, Shanghai-based China Eastern, which has made losses in three of the last five years, would get much-needed cash, international expertise and industry know-how.
China Eastern shares traded at HK$6.73 on Monday, stoking shareholder frustration even though the stock had rallied to a life high of HK$10.50 in September on news of the deal.
The public war of words between the two rival airlines may have undermined China’s plans to restructure its commercial aviation industry. Foreign investors may be more reluctant to get into a sector if Beijing fails to clarify ownership laws, even if the industry is growing at 16 percent a year.
“Whatever the outcome, the country’s aviation policy is as confused as ever,” Merrill Lynch’s Paul Dewberry said.
Air China’s intervention -- the country’s leading airline is keen to create a Chinese supercarrier -- contradicts Beijing’s policy of introducing international expertise in aviation.
The appointment of Air China’s ex-chairman, Li Jiaxiang, to the post of the country’s top aviation regulator suggests Air China could get the upper hand in years to come.
“It’ll reflect very poorly on Chinese officials if the deal is scuttled,” said Shukor Yusof, Standard & Poor’s Singapore-based regional aviation analyst.
Singapore Airlines is no stranger to failed acquisitions.
In 2000, it took a quarter of Air New Zealand in a bid to expand its Australasian foothold, but the carrier faltered and Singapore Air had to cut back its stake years later.
It is also considering selling a 49 percent stake in Virgin Atlantic that it bought for 600 million pound ($1.2 billion) in 1999, after the alliance failed to blossom.
But some analysts say don’t count Singapore Air out -- yet.
“This is really about politics, not economics, so it’s hard to predict,” said Teng Ngiek Lian, chief executive of Target Asset Management, which manages about US$3 billion in Asian equity and owns Singapore Airlines stock.
“I don’t see anybody else providing a better fit for China Eastern.” (Additional reporting by Edwin Chan in HONG KONG, Samuel Shen and George Chen in SHANGHAI; editing by Edwin Chan and Ian Geoghegan)
West finds ways into Saudi growth story
As foreign interest in the Saudi stock market reaches unprecedented levels, international investment houses are looking to develop products designed to provide western institutional investors with new means of gaining access to the booming Gulf’s largest bourse.
The kingdom’s financial services sector has gone through a dramatic transformation in the past couple of years as it has been liberalised and opened up to foreign institutions. But direct investment in the Tadawul All-share index is restricted to Saudi residents and citizens of the other five Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states.
Recently, however, licensed investment houses have begun testing products that will go some way to meeting demand from western investors desperate to gain exposure to the kingdom’s oil-fuelled boom and tap into the high liquidity of the domestic market in the GCC’s most populous nation.
Foreign investors can access a few Saudi mutual funds, but that sector is underdeveloped and accounts for just 2 per cent of the market capitalisation of the companies listed on the exchange.
Change, however, is gradually under way. Since late 2005, the Capital Market Authority, the Saudi regulator, has authorised 79 investment companies, including Saudi firms, joint ventures and regional and western groups such as Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.
Last month, HSBC became the first of the international entrants to launch products primarily aimed at western institutions.
Its two open-ended funds track the group’s newly launched 36-stock equity index and its 11-share petrochemical index, respectively.
Since December 10, the funds have raised a combined total of $550m, 80 per cent of which has been in foreign institutional investment, says Osama Shaker, head of investment at HSBC Saudi Arabia.
Other investment houses are expected to follow suit, with the hope that the CMA will ultimately authorise products that will enable western investors to stock-pick for themselves.
Deutsche Bank, together with Morgan Stanley - which sealed a joint venture with The Capital Group, a Saudi investment company, earlier this year - are among others planning to offer products specifically targeting western investors.
Abdulrahman al-Tuwaijri, CMA chairman, said the regulator would gradually “allow some funds to be established by licensed firms through which investment from outside the kingdom would be allowed in a transparent fashion”.
His comments were welcomed by bankers, but he set no timeframe for when foreign investors would be allowed to invest directly in the bourse.
Cautious Saudi authorities are concerned about attracting “hot money” - cash moved quickly from one investment to another to capitalise quickly on returns - and have viewed the bourse as a way of distributing wealth to Saudis, analysts say.
Still, investment houses will be innovating with mutual fund-type products that receive regulatory approval in the current environment, while also planning for the future.
Mr Shaker says: “Definitely HSBC would be among those looking at products to allow foreign stock-picking, but one thing we have to make people aware of is this is not on the agenda of the CMA. They want to go about it gradually, they don’t want to move from A to C immediately, they want to go A, B, C; we are at B, I would say.”
The Tadawul has enjoyed a recent bounce and is up about 43 per cent over 12 months, following a volatile period. There was a spectacular crash in 2006, after retail investors pulled out en masse from an overheating market, wiping $500bn off the market’s peak value of $834bn.
There were more than 20 initial public offerings in 2007, double the previous year’s tally, and the market value of Tadawul-listed companies is back to about $516bn.
Another three large IPOs are expected in coming months, including the sale of a 70 per cent stake in al Inma Bank, which is being launched by the government; a 50 per cent sale of Ma’aden, a state-owned mining company; and a 40 per cent sale of the consortium led by Zain Group (Kuwait Telecommunications).
The combined value of these IPOs could be more than $6.5bn, according to one analyst.
Jamal al Kishi, chief executive of Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia, says: “We are confident that the interest in investing in Saudi-listed stocks is frankly immense from institutional investors abroad.
“There is value in investing in some of the Saudi-listed companies - tremendous value - and the growth potential that exists in Saudi Arabia across various industries and segments makes for a very compelling investment proposition.”
Mr al Kishi says DSSA is “pondering a number of initiatives” that would allow international investors to access the market.
“We are very keen ourselves on doing this as soon as we can,” he says. He adds “there’s no escaping” the need for the market to open up as a way for the kingdom to attract foreign direct investment and integrate with the global economy.
Record oil prices have seen Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product grow from $188.6bn in 2002 to $348.7bn in 2006 and few anticipate oil prices will dip dramatically any time soon.
The economy’s growth has also been boosted by massive internal demand and government spending. The 2008 budget, announced in December, projects that spending this year will be $109.3bn and revenue $120bn.
China school teaches once-banned ‘feng shui’
BEIJING - THE Chinese art of feng shui, a form of geomancy once banned by the Chinese Communist Party as a superstition, has now found its way on to the school curriculum in China, a newspaper said on Tuesday.
A high school in Xiamen, in the rich southeastern province of Fujia, had started a course in feng shui, long practised by Chinese communities outside China, ‘for the first time”, the Beijing News said.
The basic premise of feng shui (wind water) is that one’s environment influences life, giving profound importance to the position of furniture in a room, for instance, or the direction a building faces.
Highly paid feng shui masters are routinely called in by architects in Hong Kong before a building is planned.
The practice was banned as a superstition after China’s Communists took power in 1949, but it has since seen a revival.
‘Traditional feng shui culture has its good features as well as its bad ones,’ Xiong Yongliang, a teacher in the school who wrote a textbook for the course, was quoted as saying. He did not elaborate.
The newspaper also said students taking this course found feng shui ‘interesting and practical’.
In May, newspapers reported that some Chinese Communist officials turned to feng shui masters for advice to ward off ‘evil spirits’ from competitors and get a better chance of promotion amid a nationwide job reshuffle.
One senior official in eastern Zhejiang province moved his ancestors’ tombs thousands of miles to the foot of the famed Tian Shan mountain in the northwestern region of Xinjiang in an attempt to improve his career prospects. -- REUTERS
Japan Stocks Drop for 5th Day on Concern Global Growth to Slow
By Patrick Rial and Satoshi Kawano
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell for a fifth day, led by commodities companies and automakers, after crude oil declined and on mounting concern the global economy is slowing.
Mitsubishi Corp., which derives more than half of its profit from commodities dealing, slid to the lowest since August. Honda Motor Co., which gets more than half its sales from North America, slumped 2.2 percent.
Crude oil prices dropped by the most in six weeks yesterday, and economic reports in the past five days have shown that U.S. unemployment rose to a two-year high in December, while a measure of European economic confidence fell to a two-year low.
``The worsening unemployment situation in the U.S. is going to drag down consumer spending there, which makes up a huge portion of the global economy,'' said Hiroshi Arano, who helps oversee $26 billion at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``The coming slowdown is going to affect developed and developing countries alike, so investors are cutting their positions in companies geared to the economic cycle.''
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 41.81, or 0.3 percent, to 14,458.74 at the 11 a.m. break in Tokyo. The broader Topix index fell 2.01, or 0.1 percent, to 1,390.70.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. led marine-transport companies higher after Deutsche Bank AG recommended investors ``buy'' shares of the three largest companies and the Baltic Dry Index climbed for the first time in three weeks.
European Sentiment
Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's largest trading company, lost 20 yen, or 0.7 percent, to 2,885. Honda dropped 80 yen, or 2.2 percent, to 3,490, the lowest since Aug. 17. Fanuc Ltd., the world's largest maker of industrial robots, fell 270 yen, or 2.6 percent, to 9,950.
Crude oil for February delivery fell 2.9 percent to $95.09 a barrel in New York, the biggest drop since Nov. 28. The decline came amid speculation slowing global economic growth will reduce demand for commodities.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro area slipped to 104.7, the lowest since March 2006, from 104.8 in November, the European Commission in Brussels said yesterday.
Elsewhere, Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said that ``negative'' signals on the U.S. economy are increasing and that he expects ``weak'' growth in the first half of the year.
Companies whose earnings are relatively immune to a global slowdown advanced. Kao Corp., Japan's largest maker of household and personal care products, climbed 80 yen, or 2.5 percent, to 3,350. East Japan Railway Co., the country's biggest train operator, surged 31,000 yen, or 3.5 percent, to 928,000, the steepest rally since April.
Mitsui O.S.K., Japan's second-largest shipping line, gained 45 yen, or 3.5 percent, to 1,328. Kawasaki Kisen K.K., the third-biggest, climbed 43 yen, or 4.5 percent, to 1,004. Nippon Yusen K.K. the largest, rose 22 yen, or 2.7 percent, to 838.
Electronics Retailers
Seigo Ando, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo, rated shares of all three companies ``buy'' in new coverage. The Baltic Dry Index, a benchmark for the price of shipping bulk commodities, rose 0.3 percent yesterday, its first gain since Dec. 13.
Best Denki Co. jumped 21 yen, or 2.9 percent, to 736 after the Nikkei newspaper said Edion Corp., Japan's second-largest electronics retailer, proposed a capital tie-up.
Edion will boost its stake in Best to as much as 10 percent from 3 percent currently, to counter Yamada Denki Co.'s expanding relationship with Best Denki, the Nikkei said.
Edion added 25 yen, or 2.2 percent, to 1,178. Yamada dropped 180 yen, or 1.6 percent, to 11,380.
Blu-ray Format
Sony Corp., developer of Blu-ray video technology, rose for a second day after Time Warner Inc. announced it would back Sony's technology exclusively and stop making video discs using Toshiba Corp.'s HD DVD format. The shares jumped 140 yen, or 2.4 percent, to 5,970, extending yesterday's 0.7 percent gain.
``The HD DVD/Blu-ray format war could now be entering its final phase, following Warner Bros' decision to support the latter exclusively,'' Eiichi Katayama, an analyst in Tokyo at Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in a note to clients dated yesterday. ``We expect to see Sony move onto the offensive in 2008.''
Kurita Water Industries Ltd., which makes pure water used to make liquid-crystal displays, gained 120 yen, or 3.7 percent, to 3,350 after the Nikkei said the company will invest more than 50 billion yen ($458 million) by 2010 to expand its operations at one of Sharp Corp.'s manufacturing sites.
Nikkei futures expiring in March advanced 0.2 percent to 14,490 in Osaka and were little changed at 14,490 in Singapore.
Chinese firms shortlisted for $2bn Singapore power deal
7 January 2008
Huaneng Power International, the mainland's largest power company, and Hong Kong-based electricity producer Hongkong Electric are among four companies shortlisted by the Singaporean government as potential bidders for sale of the city-state's US$2 billion Tuas Power Station, the South China Morning Post, reported. Japanese trading house Marubeni Corp and Australian investment bank Macquarie are the other bidders being considered. Tuas accounts for 25% of Singapore's total power generation capacity and had US$1.6 billion in revenue last year. Temasek, the investment arm of the Singapore government, said it expected to have the Tuas power station sold by March.
传港灯(0006.HK)华能(0902.HK)竞购大士能源入围，中电0002.HK)出局
2008年01月07日 星期一
《路透》引述消息报道，就拍卖大士能源公司股权，淡马锡已选出6名潜在买家，包括港灯(0006.HK)与华能(0902.HK)，而中电(0002.HK)未入围。
大士能源去年於新加坡电力市场的市占率为26.1%。
Jiutian Chemical Off 9.5%; S$0.35 Support Tipped (2008/01/08 12:41PM)
0441 GMT [Dow Jones] Jiutian Chemical (C8R.SG) down 9.5% at S$0.38 on heavy volume, falling below S$0.40 level for first time since August. Market observer attributes share price weakness to ongoing concerns over demand for one of company’s key products, DMF; “there are concerns on whether there will be continued strong demand for DMF because of a weaker export market in China. But that might not directly impact Jiutian because it doesn’t export, though it might affect its competitors, leading to an oversupply in China and causing prices to weaken.” Company started commercial production of DMF in October using its new plant, which is 4X bigger than previous facilities. Immediate support tipped at Aug. 17 low of S$0.35. (FKH)
Morgan Stanley to offload CICC
2008-01-08
BEIJING, Jan. 8 -- US financial services firm Morgan Stanley plans to sell its entire stake in China International Capital Corp (CICC), the nation's first investment bank, sources close to the two companies said yesterday.
The unnamed sources confirmed a report by Hong Kong-based Ta Kung Pao that the US investment bank plans to sell its stake in CICC and is in talks with private equity firms to find a buyer. The two firms have agreed that the buyer of the stake cannot be an investment bank.
Morgan Stanley currently holds a 34.4 percent stake in CICC, but with a limited role in the investment bank. The sources said the US firm might sell its entire stake in CICC and invest in another local brokerage.
Earlier in December, local media reported that the global financial services firm was planning to buy a 33.5 percent stake in Shanghai-based China Fortune Securities for 4 billion yuan.
The reports said Morgan Stanley had signed an agreement with China Fortune Securities to set up a joint venture investment bank and that Morgan Stanley might be interested in a controlling stake.
But under new rules issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on December 28, the maximum stake foreign investors can hold in a local securities firm will remain at around 33.3 percent, despite lower barriers in other areas.
China Fortune Securities ranks 48th among 104 brokerages, with registered capital of 1 billion yuan by the end of 2006, according to the CSRC.
The CSRC's new rules issued on December 28 also require 1.2 billion yuan in net capital in the last year for a securities firm if it wants to set up a subsidiary.
"To meet the requirement, Morgan Stanley and China Fortune might increase their net capital before they set up a joint venture investment bank," said Liang Jing, an analyst with Guotai Jun'an Securities. "The new rule may not be a big problem for Morgan Stanley and China Fortune."
Morgan Stanley is expected to become one of the first foreign firms to invest in a local securities firm in 2008, after the government resumed approvals of foreign joint ventures based on the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue.
The government banned international companies from investing in local securities firms in October 2006, concerned that it would threaten local brokerages recovering from a four-year slump. Before the ban, UBS and Goldman Sachs Group Inc were the only foreign firms with brokerages in the country.
China's securities industry scored big money last year thanks to the bullish stock market. By June 2007, 24 leading brokerages had made a total net profit of 37.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 425 percent.
Shanghai-listed CITIC Securities yesterday predicted fivefold net profit growth for 2007 compared with 2006. The company posted a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan in 2006.
China Eastern worries over vote
By Jin Jing (China Daily)
2008-01-08 12:10
In a rare movement, China Eastern Airlines said it foresaw "a gloomy results from a vote on the proposed sale of shares to Singapore Airlines and Temasek."
In an email delivered to China Daily this morning, China Eastern said that the sales proposal will "very likely be put off temporarily".
According to the email, a vast number of shareholders that previously supported the deal have "changed their minds" after China National Aviation Corp (CNAC), Air China's parent company, said on Sunday it plans to make a counter offer of HK$5 per share for China Eastern Airlines.
The counter offer is a third higher than the HK$3.8 offered by Singapore Airlines if the China Eastern-Singapore Airlines deal is rejected.
In addition, CNAC, which owns a 12.07 percent stake in China Eastern, is expected to vote against the deal, and as such the deal is not likely to pass, said China Eastern in the statement.
The shareholder meeting to discuss the deal will be held at 1:30 pm today as scheduled. Trading of both A and H shares of China Eastern is suspended today.
China Eastern said in a statement to the Shanghai Stock Exchange today that the company has not received any "formal" similar proposal from other suitors.
In a statement last night, China Eastern challenged the authenticity of the proposal raised by CNAC and suggesting CNAC hopes to block cooperation with Singapore Airlines.
伊朗船只在霍尔木兹海峡威胁美国军舰详情
2008年 1月 8日 星期二 09:08 BJT
路透华盛顿1月7日电(记者Andrew Gray)---美国官方周一宣布，伊朗船只周末期间在霍尔木兹海峡侵略性地接近三艘美国海军舰艇，并威胁称这三艘舰艇将会爆炸。
伊朗否认了美国对此事件的担忧，称那只是一次例行接触。但是，五角大楼将伊朗的行为定义为“轻率、不顾後果并可能存在敌意的”，并要求伊朗政府做出解释。
“霍尔木兹海峡是一个非常敏感的地区，事件升级的危险是切实存在的，”美国国防部长盖兹(Robert Gates)说。“这次事情提醒我们，伊朗政府是一个行为难以预测的政府。”
美国海军第五舰队司令Kevin Cosgriff中将说，五艘伊朗快艇侵略性地驶近处于国际水域中的美军舰只，并称伊朗快艇的行为是“不适当的挑釁”。
“我们的舰艇接受到了威胁性的无线电信号，大意为他们正在接近我们，且我们的舰艇将会爆炸，”Cosgriff在舰队设于巴林的总部，通过电视电话对聚集在五角大楼的记者说。
Cosgriff说，美国海军相信这几艘伊朗船只属于该国的革命卫队，而且他们的军舰会接近美军舰艇，有时距离不到500码(457米)。
油价上涨
当美伊船只发生对峙的消息传出後，国际油价立即上涨。由于霍尔木兹海峡是石油运输的大动脉，交易者担心该事件会危及运油路线。原油期货价格一度上涨49每分，达到每桶98.4美元，随後回落。
伊朗外交部称这次事件是“正常的”，并称问题已经解决。
“这只是双方之间偶尔会发生的正常事件。而且，在互相确认对方的身份後，问题已经得到解决。”伊朗外交部发言人Mohammad Ali Hosseini对伊朗官方的IRNA通讯社说。
伊朗国家电视台援引一位伊朗革命卫队海军方面的“知情人士”的话称：“革命卫队的海军力量与美国舰艇的接触没有超出正常范围”。
这位人士称，革命卫队的舰只要求三艘美军舰艇报明身份。随後，美军舰艇报出了身份，并继续沿既定航线行驶。
一些未透露姓名的五角大楼官员称，在受到美军的威胁後，一艘美国军舰的舰长已经准备下令向正驶离自己的伊朗船只开火。
这些官员称，一艘伊朗舰只发来的无线电信号内容是：“我们向你们驶来了。你们会在几分钟内爆炸。”
Cosgriff称，两艘伊朗舰只在水中放入了漂浮在海面上的白色盒子。他没有解释这种行为的原因，但表示美军舰艇已经安全地驶过了这些盒子。
五角大楼官员表示，这次事件发生在格林威治时间周日凌晨四点，即华盛顿时间周六午夜。Cosgriff称，事发时当地是白天，而且能见度非常好。(完)
Key Indian share index scales new peak
Tue, 08 Jan 2008 05:14:07 GMT
Mumbai, Jan 8 - Taking analysts by surprise, a key Indian equities market index topped the 21,000-point mark for the first time ever during intra-day trading Tuesday, maintaining the momentum in the New Year.
Soon after trading commenced, the sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) scaled to a new peak of 21,077.53 points, against the previous day's close at 20,812.65.
The index was ruling slightly lower 21,025.68 points by mid-morning Tuersday - but still higher by 213.03 points, or 1.02 percent, over the previous close, as hectic buying was witnessed across sectors.
While small-cap shares were up 1.86 percent, mid-cap scrips were also not far behind with a gain of 1.28 percent over the previous day's close, data with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) showed.
Reliance Communications, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, ITC, Larsen and Toubro, State Bank of India, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Housing Development Finance Corp and Reliance Energy were among the top Sensex gainers.
Software major Wipro and aluminium maker Hindalco were the only two Sensex shares that were trading in the red.
Singapore Hot Stocks-Chemoil slips on CEO's death
SINGAPORE, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Shares of fuel trader Chemoil (CHEL.SI: Quote, Profile, Research) fell as much as 15.5 percent to 43 U.S. cents with 5.5 million traded after the firm said its founder and chief executive Robert Chandran died in a helicopter accident in Indonesia on Monday.
UBS said in a client note that it believed succession planning prior to the accident was limited.
"While we believe enough structure is in place such that day-to-day operations should not be affected, Chemoil's medium term plans and strategic direction would be uncertain," said UBS analyst Cheryl Lee.
At 0213 GMT Chemoil shares were trading down 8.7 percent at 47 U.S. cents.
Chandran was the head of the biggest supplier of marine fuel in the Americas with annual revenue of $4.4 billion.
0204 GMT - Straits Times Index .STI up 0.56 percent. (Reporting by Melanie Lee; Editing by Ovais Subhani)
国际视野：挽救经济黔驴技穷
2008年01月08日 星期二
先别说会否迈向衰退，美国经济肯定陷於水深火热之中。政府正努力寻求救亡方案，避免泥足深陷。
总统乔治布殊日前扬言，他将会在今个月的「国情咨文」发表时，提出一系列救经济措施，但却没有透露用甚麼方式，只说美国经济基调稳固。如此矛盾的言论，是否令阁下如丈八金刚──摸不着头脑？
分析家估计，为防止经济陷入衰退，救亡措施除必须大幅减息和开水闸外，不外减税和放宽「两房」──房利美和房地美两家半官方按揭机构之贷款上限。
先说减税，正是今时不同往日。01年面对科网股泡沫爆破衍生之后遗症，以及「911」事件等冲击，也熬得过去，此因布殊政府接过克林顿时期剩下来大把银两(财政盈余估计1万亿美元)，遂有「水」去救火。可是，目前美国库空虚，试问钱从何来？如果发债，岂不变成与民争利，抵销了部份减息的好处？若果出现所谓「排挤效应」(crowding out effect )，令做生意者或消费者叫苦连天，不难得不偿失。
另外，现时要稳定的是楼市及其衍生的信贷危机，减税其实益了谁？成效有多大？是否一定能刺激消费？也成疑问。至於放宽「两房」之贷款上限，图以较低利率贷款，或以担保形式为置业者纾缓信贷压力，甚或再融资机会，防止楼市持续滑坡，虽然可以止痛，但此举要获国会批准，时间上是否「远水未必救到近火」？
王冠一
曾淵滄：恒豐金搭一程順風車
2008-01-08
傳媒報道恒豐金（870）旗下的金至尊要賣掉知名的金廁所、金觀音……賣了金廁所，今年恒豐金將有一筆非常可觀的特別盈利。金至尊本來不是香港老字號、規模大的黃金珠寶首飾集團，但是，主席林世榮創意過人，多年前趁金價低迷時買下大量黃金，建了這個金廁所，從此，金廁所成為香港知名的旅遊點，旅客來參觀金廁所之餘，也買些首飾，金至尊就如此崛起。這個金廁所我也是久聞其名，未曾參觀過，該找個時間去參觀參觀。恒豐金要賣金廁所，說明了兩件事。第一件事是管理層認為金價已見頂，是時候套利，將多年前低價建金廁所而買入的黃金賣掉獲利。第二件事是管理層認為，金至尊這塊招牌已經打響，以後不再需要靠金廁所來打廣告。這也是，目前金至尊已經在內地廣開分店，不可能每家分店都造個金廁所。去年，恒豐金盈利急增，盈利上升的原因不是營業額大增，而是經營成本下降，即廣告、市場推廣的開支大幅減少，這是管理層認為金至尊這塊招牌已經夠響亮了，決定減少市場推廣的開支。
炒味濃須定止蝕
恒豐金賣金廁所，套現的錢可以做甚麼？我估計最大可能是在內地多開分店。恒豐金股價從不久前公佈業績之後，就遠遠跑贏大市，甚至可以說是逆市上升，炒味相當濃厚，有興趣的話，可以跟一跟，乘順風車，但記得設止蝕價。聖誕節期間，我到約旦旅遊，前後7天，約旦是個很不錯的地方，很有旅遊價值。約旦最出名的旅遊點就是去年哄動全球的新世界七大奇觀選舉排名第二的Petra古城，排名僅次於中國的萬里長城。還有不沉的死海，死海泥是聞名世界的天然護膚美容品，約旦也是數千年前摩西帶領猶太人出埃及，還未到達以色列前，流浪了40年的地方，古蹟非常多。很可惜，這樣好的旅遊地點，卻沒有直飛香港的航機，我們得在多哈轉機，在機場呆6小時的滋味很難受，前往約旦旅遊的人非常多，國泰航空（293）是沒有理由不開辦直航班機前往，擴大營業額。
China wakes up to global clout of its small firms
BEIJING (Reuters) - Xing Houyuan’s advice to investors who seek her out is patient and practical: do due diligence on any potential partner, clarify its ties to the government, and make sure you control any joint venture.
Her words would have sounded familiar to any firm trying to enter China in the 1980s and 1990s. But the nervous-looking man who had just shown Xing his proposal was Chinese, and he was looking to do business in Africa.
While Beijing has pushed aggressively to win major mining, oil and hydroelectric projects around the world, it is only now starting to pay attention the smaller companies that supply everything from cement to explosives for these mega projects.
Xing is director of multinational business at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, which is affiliated with China’s Ministry of Commerce. The academy offers policy analysis, market information, due diligence reports and advice -- originally for foreigners seeking to invest in China and now also for Chinese firms seeking to do business abroad.
Even though investment by small and mid-sized firms in Africa has taken off in the last six or seven years, the Chinese government only started to pay attention in 2006, when it hosted a gathering of African leaders in Beijing, Xing said.
While deals by big state firms get the most attention, smaller, private firms have been quicker to spot opportunities abroad, just as they have done inside China in the last decade. Oil, metals and telecoms are the most promising sectors in Africa, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, another government-backed research institute.
“Private companies are the most proactive in our own economy, and in many ways, the African market is suited to smaller players,” Xing said. “Small and private companies are more likely to find projects and partners that fit their capability.”
Last year, for the first time, Africa accounted for the greatest number of Chinese deals signed overseas. But the continent’s share of China’s foreign investment actually shrank, to 3 percent in 2006 versus 7 percent in 2005, indicating a shift toward smaller deals.
DISPENSING ADVICE
To help these smaller businesses, the government organized a Sino-African investment conference in Beijing in December, where Xing dispensed advice to people like the executive from a small steel company in Tangshan, east of Beijing, who was looking into investing an iron ore mine in Libya.
Beware of partners who can’t deliver what they promise, Xing told the steel executive.
Other attendees ranged from the expected -- bankers hoping to lend to successful projects -- to the surprising. A representative from textile firm Hodo Group wanted information on mining projects in Madagascar.
China is also focusing on what it calls “development zones” in areas where Chinese investment is concentrated in Africa, where it aims to ease small and medium companies’ access to credit and government channels.
“We are setting up the zones to help them access resources, and find and get access to local governments, partners and projects that are suitable to their size,” Xing told Reuters.
“The governments there like it because they have an intermediary bigger than just that one company and we like it because we can keep track of our companies, especially if there is a problem.”
Keeping track of these smaller players, which are becoming the face of China in Africa, is increasingly important to maintaining Beijing’s effort to secure resources in Africa without exploiting its people.
While Zambia’s Chambishi copper mine, operated by China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group Co Ltd (CNMC), has seen disputes over wages and safety, one of the worst accidents was not in the mine itself but at an explosives supplier, Beijing General Research Institute of Mining and Mettallurgy (BGRIMM), where an explosion killed 46 workers in 2005.
And some Chinese contractors who have won infrastructure deals with the lowest bids have come in late and well over budget, as they failed to anticipate safety and labor regulations.
“In a broad sense, as Chinese companies flood into Africa, there is a big risk of disorderliness. There’s a big risk that unfavorable incidents could turn hearts and minds against China,” Xing said.
COPPER BELT
Beijing has designated Zambia’s Copper Belt, where the Chambishi mine has attracted a cluster of companies in service and secondary industries, as its first development zone in Africa. Chinese companies have signed deals to invest a total of $900 million in the region, according to the Zambian government.
“It’s a huge and complex project and it has the potential to be disorderly. Instead we decided to make it a model for how Chinese can participate in the industrialization of Africa,” Xing said.
A second zone would be in Nigeria, where Chinese oil firm CNOOC Ltd. last year purchased a $2.7 billion stake in the Akpo field, Xing said. The African oil giant is a magnet for Chinese traders selling clothing, shoes and electronics.
Chinese investment in Africa hit $6.4 billion at the end of last year as firms from giant telecoms gear maker Huawei Technologies to small players like Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Nickel Materials Co. made inroads around the continent.
African economies are expected to grow faster in the first quarter of this century than they did in the past 25 years, creating ample opportunities for Chinese firms, said Yao Guimei, an Africa researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Big Sino-African deals have diversified away from infrastructure. This year, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China agreed to pay $5.6 billion for a 20 percent stake in South Africa’s Standard Bank -- a move which should help Chinese investment in the rest of the continent.
The Sino-African investment conference in Beijing in December coincided -- perhaps not coincidentally -- with a meeting of European and African leaders in Lisbon, where Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade warned a “slow, bureaucratic” Europe that it risked being left behind by China and India in the race to invest in Africa,
Despite hand wringing in some European capitals over China’s expansion in Africa, Joshua Eisenman, a fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, said there was probably more complementarity than competition.
“I don’t think that China’s efforts in Africa necessarily run contrary to those of the United States and Europe because, let’s face it, when was the last time the United States or Europe built infrastructure in Africa?” he said.
“I don’t see it as a zero sum game. They are involved in different things.”
$5.3b boost for Marina Bay Sands
Weaker US dollar pushing up cost for Las Vegas Sands
Monday, January 7, 2008
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) said that despite the constricted credit market, it has secured more than US$3.7 billion ($5.3 billion) in loans to build Marina Bay Sands, its proposed integrated resort in Singapore.
The financing package for the complex also includes a capital contribution of about US$558 million in equity from LVS, according to a United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) document filed last Friday.
Mr William Weidner, president and chief operating officer of LVS, said the company would likely not have been able to convince lenders if the project had been outside of Asia.
"We are lucky to have such a strong Singaporean economy as a backdrop," he said.
Mr Weidner said the cost of the Singapore project has increased slightly because of the weakened US dollar and the rise of building and material costs in Singapore's booming economy.
Although he declined to discuss cost details, according to last Friday's SEC figures, the cost of the project could grow to as much as US$4.6 billion, up from the US$3.6 billion that was first announced.
The Singapore project includes plans for 2,500 hotel rooms; 1.2 million square feet of flexible meeting, convention and exhibition space; 1 million square feet of retail space; and three large entertainment venues.
The Marina Bay Sands is scheduled to open next year.
The project represents Sands' significant push into the Asian market. Last year, the Las Vegas-based company — led by Mr Sheldon Adelson — opened the Venetian Macao, a massive casino hotel in Macau.
LVS plans to retire the debt five to eight years after the facility opens, Mr Weidner said. — The Wall Street Journal
China Eastern Air Chairman: Won’t Consider Air China As Investor
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China Eastern Airlines Corp. (CEA) Chairman Li Fenghua said Tuesday his airline still believes Singapore Airlines Ltd. is the best potential investor for the Shanghai-based carrier and won’t consider Air China Ltd. as a future strategic partner.
Li made the comments at a press conference after China Eastern Airlines’ shareholders earlier Tuesday rejected a proposal to sell a 24% stake to Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Temasek Holdings Pte.
The widely-anticipated outcome clears the way for China National Aviation Holding Co., parent of Air China Ltd., to offer a counterbid for China Eastern that may potentially involve Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd..
However, Li said: “China Eastern Airlines won’t introduce Air China as a strategic investor because acquisition among the three largest airliners will hurt China’s aviation industry.”
He also said the outcome was “within my expectations as Air China has been lobbying fund managers recently.”
China Eastern agreed in September to sell the stake to the Singaporeans for a total of HK$7.2 billion (US$921.7 million), or HK$3.80 a share, after the deal was cleared by the Chinese cabinet.
飞鸟撞飞机 美军亮秘器
2008年01月08日14:02
驾驶F-15E鹰式战斗机或许是美国军队中最风光的行当了。
而最不风光的活计或许就是清理“战鹰”以500英里时速与麻雀相撞时遗留在机身上的鸟喙、爪子和羽毛了。
戴尔•约翰逊(Del Johnson)中校这两样工作都要做。他的日常工作是从美军驻阿富汗空军基地巴格拉姆(Bagram)起飞执行战斗任务。不过，作为飞行安全官，他的职责还包括确保每次“战鹰”和普通鸟类相撞时，将后者从前者身上清理出来，并将它们送到史密森学会(Smithsonian Institution)的科学家们的手中。
来自堪萨斯州的约翰逊中校今年38岁。他说，“这工作或许没有你想象得那么风光。”约翰逊有着同《壮志凌云》中汤姆•克鲁斯一样的笑容，他的肩头还挎着一把9毫米口径手枪。
如果一只鸟──即便是只小鸟飞入进气管、撞碎引擎的涡轮叶片，都有可能导致价值3,800万美元的F-15E战斗机坠毁。一只大雁也有可能撞碎座舱盖、重伤两名机组成员。约翰逊中校就曾在美国北卡罗来纳州上空500英尺高空飞行时撞上一只秃鹰。约翰逊回忆道，“我只看到了一只黑鸟。”飞机最终安全着陆。他说，在以550英里时速飞行时，“一切转瞬即逝。”
巴格拉姆地处候鸟在亚洲主要的迁徙路线萨朗走廊。这里的飞机跑道上可以见到麻鹰这样的猛禽以及鸽子、八哥和麻雀的身影。自去年9月进行战斗飞行以来，约翰逊中校已经记录下20多起与第445空中远征联队(455th Air Expeditionary Wing)有关的飞鸟撞机事故。
巴格拉姆空军基地也曾想方设法地驱赶飞鸟。基地承包商曾在露天矿坑焚烧垃圾，不过这招来了老鼠，而老鼠又引来了鸟类。现在他们在一座塔式建筑里焚烧垃圾。有时候，约翰逊中校会用一支双管信号枪喷出烟火来驱鸟。他还在到处选购能驱鸟的激光枪。在将一把价值995美元的驱鸟枪排除在候选范围之外后，约翰逊看上了一只7,700美元的Desman激光枪，它不仅配有红外线瞄准镜，还能射出长达1.5英里的光束（经销商说，激光对鸟类无害。）
不过躲避飞鸟最可靠的方法之一还是让飞行员认识鸟类的习性。这也正是史密森学院的作用所在。博物馆研究员负责辨认鸟类尸体，并输入一个数据库，这个数据库能够帮助飞行员了解鸟类在什么时间和季节构成的威胁最大。约翰逊中校说，“我们利用这个数据来分析我们撞到了什么鸟类，碰撞发生的地点和时间，以便躲避这些飞鸟。”
十月下旬，两只飞鸟在巴格拉姆撞上了一架F-15飞机。其中一只在座舱前粉身碎骨，而另一只则撞向了瞄准吊舱的固定装置。这个装置价值100万美元，飞行员凭借它才能在上万英尺高空──甚至是漆黑的深夜，看到地面上人群和建筑的清晰图像。
飞机并未受损。约翰逊说，“没有人员伤亡，死鸟倒是有两只。”
一位地勤人员拿着一块通常用来清洁飞机座舱挡风玻璃的蓝色抹布将飞鸟撞机后留下的一点点痕迹从机身上清理下来，并交给约翰逊中校。约翰逊戴上蓝色的橡胶手套，为谨慎起见，他还将酒精淋在标本身上以杀死其可能携带的禽流感病毒。他将鸟的残骸套上两层塑料袋，标明撞击的地点、时间和日期，然后将其与相关文件装入一个衬膜信封内。相关文件包括资料来源证明以及美国农业部允许约翰逊将鸟类肢体运出阿富汗的说明。
被美军飞机在全球各地撞下的鸟儿最终都会出现在卡拉•德弗(Carla Dove)清早接收的信件中。德弗是华盛顿国家自然博物馆(National Museum of Natural History)羽毛鉴定试验室(Feather Identification Lab)的项目负责人。45岁的德弗有一头蓬松的金发，说起话来带着柔和的弗吉尼亚口音。她将今早收到的东西称为“血团”(snarge，这个词是粘稠物snot和残余garbage的合成。)
史密森学会研究人员的工作包括帮助博物馆人类学家鉴别头饰羽毛，以及帮助博物学家认识响尾蛇腹部的构造，等等。不过他们的大部分工作是辨认被军用飞机撞死的鸟类。实验室小组甚至按照军队的传统定制了自己的纪念币。一枚纪念币上这样写道，“有cherpies（一种鸟类传播给人的疾病）吗？我们帮你。”
德弗和她的手下每年大约要完成4,000次任务，他们有三种辨认死鸟的方法。44岁的研究助理玛西•希科尔(Marcy Heacker)擅长于将整根羽毛与收藏在博物馆的62万多种鸟类标本进行匹配。红尾鹰、猩红比蓝雀、黑顶白颊林莺以及其他飞禽整齐地排列在从地板摞到屋顶的抽屉里。这些标本十分逼真，只不过原来眼睛的位置填上了棉花球。
上个月，希科尔收到了一袋羽毛和一只爪子，这是从俄克拉荷马阿尔特斯空军基地(Altus Air Force Base)驶出的空中加油机KC-135R与一只鸟碰撞的残迹。这种毛茸茸的杏黄色胸羽马上让人想到了哀鸠。她爬上梯子，从高处拉出了一个塞得满满的抽屉，并和一支末端带白边的尾羽放在一起──这根羽毛看起来像是曾穿过飞机的发动机。
她说，“要知道，羽毛有些变形。不过，看起来应该不会认错。”
当飞鸟残骸受损程度过于严重以至于难以用肉眼辨认时，就轮到德弗上场了。在她办公室里的木质抽屉里保存有2,400个羽毛纤维的显微镜载物片。通过细微观察，她可以分辨出，比如，鹪鹩和美洲家鸭。在实验室工作了19年的德弗说，“做这项工作的人并不多，没人愿意和‘血团’打交道。”
去年，一名心怀感激的飞行员带德弗坐上了F-15飞机。她骄傲地说，在飞行过程中她没有呕吐，尽管飞行员也尽了全力。不过，当有人告诉她说，一只个头很大的红尾鹰在飞机起飞时就停在附近的一座建筑物上时，她有些惶恐。“幸运的是，我当时没有看到它，否则我会阻止飞行员起飞。”
约翰逊中校寄来的那两只鸟的情况是，没有足够的羽毛来进行显微镜比对。于是，这块浸血的蓝布就来到了南茜•罗特泽尔(Nancy Rotzel)手中，28岁的罗特泽尔是来自威斯康星州阿普尔顿的的分子学专家。利用联邦航空局(Federal Aviation Administration)提供的一台昂贵仪器，罗特泽尔可以从样本中提取DNA，并将其与生命数据系统条形码(Barcode of Life Data Systems)进行匹配。该条形码收集了35,105种动植物的DNA信息。
结果表明，约翰逊寄来的“血团”是一种云雀的概率为99.5%，而有98.5%的可能性是一种大白鹭。
史密森学会的鉴别小组将这些研究结果输入一个全球鸟情数据库，该数据库可计算出飞机在任一个时间撞击某种鸟类的可能性。而在巴格拉姆，这个数据有助于约翰逊在战争条件允许的范围内制定起飞和降落的时间。
他说，“你必须在需要的时候投入战斗，因此你所能做的只有这么多。”
东航股东拒绝新航收购提议
2008年01月08日17:03
总部在上海的中国东方航空股份有限公司(China Eastern Airlines Corp.)表示，公司股东周二否决了将本公司24%股权出售给新加坡航空公司(Singapore Airlines Ltd.)和淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings Pte.)的提议。
股东大会结果给雄心勃勃的新加坡航空带来了重大打击，也为中国航空集团公司(China National Aviation Holding Company)向东方航空发出股权收购报价扫清了道路，且预计国泰航空有限公司(Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd.)也可能加入该交易。中国航空集团是中国国际航空股份有限公司(Air China Ltd.)的母公司。
去年9月，新加坡航空和新加坡政府投资公司淡马锡控股与东方航空董事会达成协议，以每股3.80港元的价格收购东方航空股权，交易额总计72亿港元。
然而自从与新加坡航空的交易签字以后，东方航空股价上涨了一倍多，本周持有东方航空12.07% H股的中国航空集团称新加坡方面的报价过低，并将于本周二召开的股东大会上投反对票。
中国航空集团周日证实，如果股东大会否决新加坡方面的股权收购交易，该集团将发出不低于每股5港元的收购报价，这也令两家新加坡公司的共同收购报价注定失败。
另外，国泰航空周一表示，将认真考虑中国国航或其母公司有关与东方航空结成战略伙伴的提议，这进一步提高了股东支持中国国航收购报价的可能性。国泰航空的介入将向东方航空提供其急需的世界级管理经验，这曾是东方航空与新加坡方面达成交易的关键考虑因素。
“东新恋”为何多波折
2008年01月08日 10:00 来源：上海证券报
东航的管理层也许没有料到，自从去年6月其与新航的引资谈判接近尾声后，引资路途上还会有如此多的波折。国航方面先是高调宣扬其“超级承运人”的梦想，指出只有国内航空企业重组合并，才能做大做强，与外资进行竞争。随后，国航母公司中航集团通过其香港的子公司中航有限连续在香港二级市场增持东航H股，并最终稳坐东航流通股第一大股东的席位。
在联手国泰对东航提出新的报价方案突然被叫停后，中航集团并没有放弃对东航股份的追逐。随着东航股东大会的临近，两家公司的交锋陷入白热化。中航方面连续抛出多个声明步步紧逼，从质疑“东新合作”价格太低涉及国资贱卖，到最近明确提出以每股5港元的价格取代新航、淡马锡收购东航部分股份，中航有限已经为东航小股东给出明确预期，从而令“东新合作”在股东大会上获得通过的希望不断被削弱。而东航则选择坚守与新航合作的方案，东航董事长李丰华称，“东航要合作就要和世界上最好的航空公司合作，那就是新航”。
同为国资委下属的两大民航企业，在国内民航业重组的问题上，站在了不同的立场。国航认为，在国内天空不断向外资航空公司开放的背景下，应该通过国内航空企业的重组来实现协同效应，做大做强。东航则认为，国内民航企业不能闭门重组，而应该接受国际航空业的先进理念，成长为具有国际竞争力的航空公司。
事实上，两家公司的立场或许源于其成长经历。2002年的国内民航业大重组，让原国航与西南航、中航浙江合并，重组后的新国航在强势掌门人李家祥的带领下迅速发挥出整合优势。2004年至2006年，国航先后成功在香港和上海上市，一跃成为国内实力最强的航空公司。因此在国航看来，通过国内航空业有效的重组，可以实现打造“超级承运人”的梦想。
与国航不同，一度是国内最好的航空公司的东航，却恰恰受缚于重组。1997年到2002年间，东航先后兼并了通用航空、长城航空、武汉航空、云南航空和西北航空。在这5起兼并中，只有长城航空和武汉航空的兼并属于“自由恋爱”，其余3家都带有浓厚的行政色彩。东航很快尝到了行政重组带来的苦果。一方面，兼并重组给东航财务增加了负担；另一方面，带有浓厚行政色彩的收购，延缓了公司的转制过程。2006年，东航亏损27.8亿元，成为2006年三大航中惟一一家亏损的航空公司。或许正是由于两种截然相反的经历，让国航与东航对于民航业未来的改革重组趋势，拥有了不同的视角和观点。
对于这两种观点，现在还很难判断孰是孰非。但若干年后再回头来看这半年来国内民航业的风波，是否贱卖、是否该引入外资等话题或许就会有了更明确的答案。(索佩敏)
Merrill Lynch says U.S. has entered full-blown recession
The US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.
Merrill, itself one of Wall Street's biggest casualties of the sub-prime crisis, is the first major bank to declare that a recession in the world's biggest economy is now underway.
David Rosenberg, the bank's chief North American economist, argues that a weakening employment picture and declining retail sales signal the economy has tipped into its first month of recession.
Mr Rosenberg, who is well-respected on Wall Street, argues: "According to our analysis, this [recession] isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality."
His comments are the strongest sign yet that the gloom on Wall Street over the US economy is deepening as the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the credit rout show little sign of easing.
Mr Rosenberg points to a whole batch of negative data to support his analysis, including the four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) - employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing.
Mr Rosenberg notes that although the NEBR will be the final arbiter of any recession, such confirmation may be two years away as it typically waits for conclusive evidence including benchmark revisions.
However, he believes that all four of these barometers "seem to have peaked around the November-December period, strongly suggesting that we are actually into the first month of a recession."
His view is at odds with some otherl forecasts on Wall Street, with Lehman Brothers going so far as to issue ten reasons why the US economy will not enter into a recession.
Mr Rosenberg argued that "This isn't about 'labels.' What is important about recessions is that while each may have its own set of particular characteristics, there are also unmistakable investment patterns that emerge time and time again."
His views were cemented by last week's jobs numbers, which showed the unemployment rate hitting 5pc, an increase of 13pc year-on-year and the highest in two years.
Despite the increasingly weak economic data, Treasury Secretary Henry "Hank" Paulson said the immediate goal of the Bush administration "is to minimize the impact of the US housing downturn on the economy."
Apparently dismissing calls for immediate tax cuts amid suggestions that President George W Bush might announce a fiscal stimulus package as early as his annual State of the Union address later this month, Mr Paulson said it is more important to get policy right rather than announced policy changes quickly.
He said that no single policy or action would undo the "excesses" of recent years, and urged for patience as the next steps to aid the country's economy were revaluated.
However he noted that officials within the Bush administration "recognise the risks we face" and will try to keep the economy "as strong as possible as we weather this housing correction."
The issue of the faltering nature of the US economy continues to play a large part in the race to replace President Bush, with the majority of candidates seeing it as a key battleground.
Ahead of tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, Democratic contender Hillary Clinton said the US middle class is under increasing economic pressure, as costs rise and house prices wane.
Oil $200 Options Rise 10-Fold in Bet on Higher Crude (Update5)
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The fastest-growing bet in the oil market these days is that the price of crude will double to $200 a barrel by the end of the year.
Options to buy oil for $200 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10-fold in the past two months to 5,533 contracts, a record increase for any similar period. The contracts, the cheapest way to speculate in energy markets, appreciated 36 percent since early December as crude futures reached a record $100.09 on Jan. 3.
While analysts at Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG say the slowing U.S. economy will lead to the biggest drop in prices since 2001, the options show some traders expect oil to rise for a seventh straight year. Demand will increase 2.5 percent in 2008, according to the International Energy Agency. U.S. inventories fell to a three-year low on Dec. 28. Production from Mexico is declining and Saudi Arabia is behind schedule in opening its newest field.
``One hundred dollars a barrel is actually 14.9 cents a cup, so we're still talking about oil being remarkably cheap,'' said Matthew R. Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International, a Houston-based investment bank that focuses on energy. Inventories ``are tight as a drum and I don't see how we get out of this box,'' he said in a Bloomberg television interview last week. ``Demand clearly isn't starting to slow down.''
Global Consumption
World consumption will rise to 87.8 million barrels a day this year, 2.1 million more than in 2007, or about the same amount that Nigeria supplies, according to the Paris-based IEA, an adviser to oil-consuming nations. Demand from China alone will increase 5.7 percent to 8 million barrels a day as imports expand to support an economy that's likely to grow 11 percent, the IEA said.
Oil suppliers are straining to increase production. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, said last week that the 500,000 barrel-a-day Khursaniyah oilfield missed a December start date. Brazil's Tupi field, the second-largest find of the past two decades, lies more than eight kilometers (five miles) below the ocean surface and will take at least five years to develop.
Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state oil monopoly, suffered a three-year, 40 percent decline at its Cantarell field, the world's third-largest. Fighting in Nigeria reduced production 11 percent since December 2005 to 2.18 million barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
U.S. Inventories
Speculators don't require prices to rise all the way to $200 to make money from options since they can sell the contracts on to others as their value rises. Nymex oil futures for February delivery tumbled $2.71 to $95.20 a barrel at 1:24 p.m. in New York on concern the economy is weakening. December oil was at $91.75.
Crude futures rose 2 percent in the first three trading days of the new year. U.S. crude inventories fell to a three-year low of 289.6 million barrels on Dec. 28, the Energy Department said.
``We haven't got to $100 on just a whim,'' said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London. ``This is at heart also about longer-term concerns that supply capacity investment needs higher prices to keep up with demand growth.''
Barclays forecasts oil will average $87.40 a barrel this year, a 21 percent increase from the 2007 average.
The Nymex options, which give speculators the right to buy 1,000 barrels of oil in December, are becoming a favorite for traders even if they don't expect crude to reach $200 because they are a cheaper way to speculate than using futures contracts. Options expire worthless if crude fails to reach the ``strike'' price. There were 500 of the options on Nov. 7.
`Insurance' Bet
The price of the options rose as high as $550 last week before closing at $300 on Jan. 4, or 30 cents a barrel. The December futures to purchase 1,000 barrels in December rose 3.5 percent to $94,010, or $94 a barrel.
``The most common analogy used to describe options is that it represents insurance'' against ``low probability'' events, said Tim Evans, a Citigroup Global Markets Inc. energy analyst in New York.
The number of outstanding options contracts to buy March oil at $200 has almost doubled to 3,250 contracts since Dec. 26. They were valued at 2 cents a barrel today.
Oil forecasters say there's no chance of $200 crude, as the U.S., which consumes a quarter of the world's oil, slows. Prices will average $78 a barrel this year, 20 percent below the current level, and $75 in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The last time prices fell that much was in 2001, when they dropped 26 percent.
Jobless Rate
Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley in New York expect the U.S. economy, the world's largest, will slip into recession this year. The jobless rate rose to 5 percent in December, the highest in two years. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to the lowest level in almost five years in December.
The U.S. probably expanded 1 percent last quarter, and gross domestic product will grow 2.3 percent in 2008, according to the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Oil is overpriced, given the outlook for the economy, said Jan Stuart, an analyst at UBS AG in New York. He forecasts an average price of $74 a barrel this year, little changed from 2007. Merrill Lynch's Francisco Blanch predicts $78 in the fourth quarter.
``I am afraid that we are going to see an economic slowdown that we have not seen the beginning of yet that will take some significant amount of oil demand off the table,'' Stuart said in a Bloomberg television interview Jan. 2.
Most strategists didn't foresee last year's 57 percent gain. Crude traded at an average of $72.36 in 2007. A Bloomberg survey of 29 analysts in September 2006 forecast a median price of $64.
Higher Numbers
``Going through $100 means that people are seeking more protection against a higher number,'' said Michael Lewis, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. Deutsche Bank expects oil to fall to about $80 a barrel.
Options trading indicates that the likelihood of crude reaching $125 a barrel in December has almost doubled since Dec. 25, to 18 percent, Lewis said.
While $200 may remain an outside chance, Simmons at Simmons & Co. showed he's willing to make that bet. He wagered $5,000 with New York Times columnist John Tierney in August 2005 that oil would average at least $200 a barrel in 2010.
The IEA said on Nov. 7 that under a high-growth scenario, oil import prices will rise to $150 a barrel by 2030 in nominal terms, or $87 a barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006-dollar terms.
``We should be prepared to see higher oil prices because the latest report I read from the International Energy Agency is very worrying,'' Andris Piebalgs, the European Union's Energy Commissioner, said while visiting a power plant in the Netherlands today. ``I would say $120 a barrel, that is what I am afraid of.''
Blow to rate cut hopes after central banks sound warning over threat from inflationGary Duncan, Economics Editor
The world’s leading central banks yesterday emphasised their vigilance against inflation in the face of soaring food and energy costs, dampening market hopes of aggressive interest rate cuts in response to financial upheavals.
In a hawkish summary of talks among the Group of 10 central banks from leading economies, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, talked up world growth prospects and sounded a warning against complacency over inflation.
Mr Trichet, the G10’s chairman, also told big financial institutions that they must shoulder responsibility for tackling money market stresses and the global credit squeeze, and not expect all the onus to fall solely on central banks and governments.
The ECB chief’s comments came as Gordon Brown yesterday reiterated his warning over the “dangerous” year ahead for Britain’s economy and predicted “what is clearly several months of global financial turbulence”.
Mr Trichet, however, sought to soothe global markets’ fears over the credit squeeze and the US sub-prime loans debacle with a reassuring assessment of the outlook.
While acknowledging that risks to world growth were “clearly on the downside”, he said the G10’s view was that: “We see growth continuing at a pace which is quite robust — even if there is a little bit of slowing down.”
The scale of any toll on the global economy from money market strains and the credit squeeze was “something that still has to be fully understood”. Mr Trichet added: “The possible consequences for the real economy are still open.”
He left little doubt, however, of the central banks’ persistent concerns over inflationary threats. “The spike in oil prices, the spike of commodity prices, the spike of food prices, are having an effect on headline inflation. The risk of a spiralling of this headline inflation in the medium run was considered by a large number of colleagues as an important risk, calling of course for no complacency.”
Mr Trichet said that the G10 saw a widespread threat that higher energy and food costs could stoke wage demands and lead companies to push up prices, risking an inflationary spiral.
“We have identified . . . in large parts of the global economy the danger of second-round effects,” he noted.
With unprecedented joint action by the central banks to pump extra funds into world money markets to prevent them from seizing up appearing to have been largely successful, the ECB President said that the G10 was “very satisfied with the actions that we embarked upon”.
He left open the question of whether further concerted G10 action to quell market tensions might follow, saying only: “We remain in very close, confident contact in the future, as we have in the past.”
Commercial bankers who attended the weekend’s G10 gathering in Basle for consultations were reported to have welcomed the central banks’ December moves. David Dodge, Governor of Canada’s central bank, said: “The clear message was that what we did in terms of concerted action over the year-end was helpful.”
But in a warning shot to Wall Street and European institutions, Mr Trichet insisted that the private sector must play its own full part in restoring calm, amid persistent stresses in markets, including those for asset-backed securities and commercial paper. “It calls for progressive, appropriate actions by the private sector in particular,” he said.
“We will remain alert, taking into account what we can do, and what we can help, which is permitting the functioning of the market to improve progressively.”
Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, also emphasised last night that there were no instant solutions to the problems of America’s housing slump and the sub-prime crisis, although the US Government would attempt to mitigate the fallout by preventing “avoidable foreclosures”.
“There is no single or simple solution that will undo the excesses of the last few years,” he said in a speech in New York.
Mr Paulson gave warning that the United States was facing an unprecedented wave of 1.8 million sub-prime mortgages issued to poor Americans with low credit ratings which would reset to higher interest rates over the next two years.
China Eastern snub is latest failed Singapore deal
Merrill Lynch, which has a “buy” recommendation on SIA, said the bid’s failure means the Singapore carrier has around S$3 billion in cash, which increases the possibility of a special dividend this year.
SINGAPORE, Jan 8 - Singapore Airlines’ failure to land a stake in China’s No.3 carrier, China Eastern, is the latest overseas setback for the city-state’s government-linked multinationals, although Singapore Inc is unlikely to be deterred in its drive to invest abroad.
Singapore, with Asia’s second-largest per capita income after Japan, has sought in recent years to develop an “external wing” by investing overseas to reduce its dependence on a small home market of fewer than 5 million people.
But its companies have faced numerous setbacks, particularly in Asia, where even existing investments may have to be sold off under pressure from governments wary of the rising prominence of sovereign wealth funds from China, the Middle East and elsewhere.
“I don’t think it has anything to do with Singapore in particular. China, Abu Dhabi tried to buy companies in the U.S. and failed,” said Marshall Gittler, chief Asian strategist for Deutsche Bank private wealth management.
“There’s growing resistance in some circles toward state-owned enterprises in cross-border acquisitions,” he added.
China Eastern’s minority shareholders rejected on Tuesday a deal to sell a 24 percent stake to SIA and its parent Temasek for about $920 million, following a run-up in China Eastern’s share price and opposition led by rival Air China .
The deal agreed with SIA last year, at HK$3.80 a share, is 43 percent below the Chinese carrier’s latest Hong Kong price of HK$6.66.
Analysts said Singapore companies may turn their attention to targets in North America and Europe where the city-state is viewed as a small, friendly, Westernised country that is less threatening than China or the Middle East.
Temasek is in the process of buying up to $5 billion worth of Merrill Lynch & Co shares as part of the U.S. bank’s recapitalisation, while the Government of Singapore Investment Corp will inject 11 billion Swiss francs into UBS.
But other bids have failed.
Last month, Singapore government-backed DBS Group declined to subscribe to rights shares offered by Thailand’s TMB Bank after a failed bid to buy new shares in the lender.
Temasek, which owns 28 percent of DBS, had previously sparked anti-Singapore demonstrations in Bangkok after it bought Thailand’s largest telecom group Shin Corp from the family of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
In Indonesia, Singapore Telecommunications may be forced to sell a stake in Telkomsel after the antitrust watchdog said parent Temasek broke competition law by holding controlling stakes in the country’s two largest mobile operators.
Temasek, the Singapore government’s investment company, owns 56 percent of SingTel, which in turn owns 35 percent of Telkomsel, Indonesia’s largest mobile company. Temasek and SingTel have appealed the ruling.
Eight years ago, SingTel was thwarted in a bid to buy Hong Kong’s dominant phone company by local tycoon Richard Li’s PCCW Ltd . Beijing was perceived in Hong Kong to have favoured a local buyer for the strategic asset.
“They seem to have bad luck, but they should expect it,” Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong, said of Singapore’s M&A woes. “When a sovereign fund goes overseas and makes major investments, I think it’s easy to stir up feelings of protectionism and patriotism.”
But Lun said Singapore Inc is not easily deterred.
State port operator PSA International failed several times before finally landing a stake in rival port Hong Kong’s container terminal in 2005.
“They came back again and again until they got it,” Lun said.
BACK TO DRAWING BOARD
As for Singapore Airlines, analysts said the China Eastern decision was a blow to the carrier’s plans to gain a foothold in fast-growing China although they continue to favour the stock.
“It’s back to the drawing board for Singapore Airlines. There’s no plan B because this means China’s aviation industry is not ready for liberalisation and the opportunities are limited,” said Rohan Suppiah, analyst with Kim Eng Securities.
“This vote is essentially a referendum on how fast China’s aviation landscape can change and how liberalised it is ready to be,” Suppiah said.
Analysts said SIA could still rely on other growth drivers such as increased access to the UK market via the Singapore-UK Open Skies Agreement and budget carrier Tiger Airway’s ventures abroad.
Singapore-based Tiger, in which SIA has a 49 percent stake, has started offering domestic services in Australia and is in the midst of setting up a joint venture low-cost carrier called Incheon Tiger in South Korea.
Merrill Lynch, which has a “buy” recommendation on SIA, said the bid’s failure means the Singapore carrier has around S$3 billion in cash, which increases the possibility of a special dividend this year.
Motorists to face five new ERP gantries
They are mainly in the heart of residential areas.
By Christopher Tan
Jan 8, 2008
MOTORISTS can expect to pay more over the next few months to use the roads when five new ERP gantries are up, many in the heart of residential areas.
The gantries are in Upper Bukit Timah Road (outside Hume Park), Toa Payoh Lorong 6, Upper Boon Keng Road, Kallang Bahru Road and Geylang Bahru Road.
All except the ones in Toa Payoh Lorong 6 and Geylang Bahru Road have been completed.
The Land Transport Authority has not announced when these new gantries will be switched on, but already residents are concerned why their neighbourhoods are targetted.
Commenting on the gantry outside Hume Park, Bukit Timah resident Mr Burven Lee, 43, said: 'The road here does get jammed up. But will a gantry solve the problem?'
'My feeling is that it will just redistribute traffic around,' the director of a statutory board added.
Toa Payoh resident 68-year-old retiree Tony Chan wanted to know why the gantry at Toa Payoh Lorong 6 is sited near the entrance to the residential area.
The LTA spokesman explained that the location of the gantry is unlikely to affect residents as it charges motorists entering into Toa Payoh from Braddell Road who add on to the traffic in the area.
He added that if gantries were at exit points, more Toa Payoh residents would be affected. Also it would plug a gap in series of gantries forming an outer cordon around the city.
The new gantries are part of the LTA's plans to have an 'outer cordon' to control traffic going into the city.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
A costly commitment
High price of DBSS flats mean buyers may have to spend a significant portion of their lives paying off loans
Letter from CHAN HAN JUN
THE recent launch of City View @ Boon Keng and the identification by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) of three more sites in Simei, Toa Payoh and Bedok for such developments has taken the price of public housing to a new level.
When compared to other private properties in the area, it seems the prices offered are cheaper. However, one of the points that needs to be answered is whether this is public or private housing?
All reports about this latest development have labelled it as HDB flats, but are these HDB prices?
As part of its Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS), the HDB has allowed private developers to buy and then build on the sites and sell the flats.
Benefits of this scheme have been widely published in the print media as well as HDB's website.
On paper, it seems a wonderful situation for both the public and the HDB — the public gets to have flats with better quality finishes, while the HDB does not have to run the construction itself.
One of the criteria set by the HDB is that the combined family income of the applicants must be below $8,000. Thus, if a couple buys the most expensive flat at City View @ Boon Keng at just over $700,000, they face the prospect of paying more than $2,000 in monthly instalments based on a 90-per-cent loan over 30 years. They would also have to fork out cash on top of their CPF contributions.
The rationale is the same even if they had bought the average-priced ones at about $500,000.
It seems that unless the applicants have healthy savings, they will be spending a significant portion of their lives paying off their loans.
I believe the HDB might need to review the criteria that it has set for DBSS. If the HDB decides that DBSS is the way to go for Singapore's future housing development, it should take a serious look at the prices that private developers would be setting.
Affordable housing might no longer be realistic if we leave these potential issues unaddressed.
Tension Mounts In The Middle East Ahead Of Bush's Visit To Push For Peace Deal
1/8/2008 11:33:21 AM
Tension mounted in the Middle East on Tuesday, as Israel came under rocket fire from Lebanon and a bomb blast hit a UN peacekeeping patrol in Lebanon, just one day ahead of a visit by U.S. President Bush as part of his three day Middle East mission to push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
Israel is on a high alert in the wake of a call by Al-Qaeda's American spokesman Adam Gadahn on the terror network's fighters to greet Bush with “bombs and booby-trapped vehicles” when he visits the Middle East.
Igniting memories of a war between Israel and the Lebanese militant movement Hezbollah in the summer of 2006, Lebanon fired two rockets into northern Israel on Tuesday.
Revising their initial report that an old rocket exploded in the border town of Shlomi, Israeli police said two Katyusha rockets launched from across the border hit a house and crashed into a nearby street.
Since the explosions occurred during a heavy storm overnight, residents had initially thought they were claps of thunder, Shlomi's Mayor said. The rocket fragments were discovered after daybreak, he said.
Although no one was hurt in the attack, Israel has taken the incident seriously. Calling the rocket fire a “grave aberration,” Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Jerusalem does not intend to allow the status quo in the region to be changed.
No organization has claimed responsibility for the rocket fire yet. The Lebanese political and militant movement Hezbollah and exiled Palestinian groups in Lebanon are suspected. During the 2006 war, Hezbollah militants, Israel's main rival in Lebanon, fired numerous rockets and mortars into northern Israel, and Israel retaliated with air strikes and artillery pounding targets throughout Lebanon.
While the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon said it was investigating the incident, a Lebanese army spokesman and Hezbollah declined to comment.
Separately, at least two people in a UN vehicle were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded on a road between the towns of Rmaileh and Sidon in Lebanon, reports quoting security officials and witnesses said.
Those injured in the blast south of the Lebanese capital Beirut have been identified as Irish peacekeepers, officials said. It was the third attack on the UN peacekeeping force, also called Unifil, since it was expanded to more than 13,000 troops following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, President Bush hopes to kick-start a peace process when he arrives in Israel on Wednesday for his first visit to the region as president. Although the president expressed optimism ahead of his trip, tough questions remain to be tackled before setting any timetable for the peace deal.
The issues of Israeli settlement construction in occupied East Jerusalem and of militant rocket fire into Israeli territory are likely to be part of the agenda, the BBC reported.
On Tuesday, Israel Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and top Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Qurei, along with their negotiating teams, were trying to formalize subcommittees that will negotiate key issues in disputes, including sovereignty over contested Jerusalem, final borders and a solution for Palestinian refugees.
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had agreed at a peace summit in Annapolis in the U.S. last year to try to achieve a two-state solution by the end of 2008.
The Candidates Face the Baby Boomers
by Ellen Hoffman
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
During the next President's term, baby boomers will begin to retire in earnest. The U.S. Census has predicted that between 2000 and 2010, the number of Americans age 45 to 64 will increase from 62.4 million to 81 million; and those age 65 to 84, from 30.7 million to 34.1 million.
As Americans retire in greater numbers, without some new policy decisions to reverse current trends, the fiscal health of Social Security and Medicare are likely to decline. The costs of chronic and nursing home care increasingly will exceed the ability of the middle class to pay for them, and as the first of the 401(k) generation retire, more and more boomers will confront the reality that they have not saved enough for the retirement they've dreamed about. (For a good overview, see America's Fiscal Future and Retirement Security, by the Government Accountability Office.)
So what do the Presidential candidates have to say about retirement issues? To find out, I scanned eight candidates' position papers and statements and attempted -- sometimes without success -- to get more information from their campaign staffs. The candidates were the five Republicans and three Democrats who have pretty consistently garnered support of 10% or more in national polls: Democrats Senator Hillary Clinton (N.Y.), former Senator John Edwards (N.C.), and Senator Barack Obama (Ill.); and Republicans, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Senator John McCain (Ariz.), former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and former Senator Fred Thompson (Tenn.).
Social Security at the Forefront
Each of the candidates has made some public statement on Social Security and Medicare reform, and several have proposed measures to improve long-term care options and financing. Beyond those issues, the three Democrats have proposed multi-issue retirement platforms. Edwards' 11-point Declaration of Independence for Older Americans includes proposals to address elder abuse and promote creation of "livable communities" for retirees. Obama's Helping America's Seniors includes proposals to encourage retirees to volunteer and protects seniors against financial fraud. Clinton has also released what amounts to a retirement agenda, although her proposals are not bundled into one document.
Social Security, which is expected to start paying out more than it receives in 2017, has attracted the most attention, but few new proposals. Most of the candidates support a "bipartisan process" to seek solutions, and some, including Edwards and McCain, specifically endorse creation of a commission such as the one headed by Alan Greenspan in 1981 to come up with suggestions for reform. Giuliani, Romney, and McCain endorse private accounts, while the three Democrats oppose them. Thompson has outlined a plan to let workers contribute 2% of their wages into private investment accounts and receive a 2.5% employer match.
Huckabee claims his proposal to replace the current income and tax system, including the payroll tax, with a 23% sales tax would solve the financing problem. For people with other resources "who don't need Social Security for the long term," he also suggests the government offer "the option of a one-time buyout, or the opportunity to purchase an annuity" with their Social Security funds, which he says would relieve the long-term pressure on the system. Thompson and some other Republicans want to base future Social Security benefits on the inflation rate rather than on wages, and Thompson has acknowledged the effect of doing this would be to lower benefits for future retirees. Edwards and Obama advocate shoring up Social Security by raising the ceiling on the worker income subject to payroll tax. For 2008, the limit is $102,000.
Medicare Fund in Danger
Considering the potential limitations of Social Security in the future, some candidates have suggested other ways to beef up Americans' retirement income and savings. Obama would exempt seniors with up to $50,000 in income from income tax, arguing that it would improve their quality of life by relieving them of tax preparation, as well as by providing extra cash. The Democrats say they'll scrutinize and probably reform bankruptcy laws to make sure employers don't evade pension obligations.
Clinton's proposals include new laws that would prohibit companies from cutting employee pensions "when they sell off subsidiaries," and creating "American retirement accounts," similar to 401(k)s, with federal matching of up to $1,000 in contributions for families making up to $60,000 and a 50% match for families earning between $60,000 and $100,000.
The Medicare hospital trust fund, predicted to spend more than it receives starting in 2013, is in more immediate danger than Social Security. Cutting health-care costs and emphasizing preventive and chronic care show up as goals in pretty much everyone's position papers. Several of these candidates have released broad health-care reform plans (BusinessWeek.com, 12/14/07) they hope would bring down all medical costs, but few have made specific proposals for Medicare reforms.
A Long Look at Long-Term Care
McCain would change the program's payment systems to "compensate providers for diagnosis, prevention, and care coordination" and offer beneficiaries the choice of a public prescription drug plan as well as the private ones now offered. The three Democrats want to allow the federal government to negotiate prescription drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, and Edwards wants to restrict the companies' direct advertising to consumers.
As boomers retire, long-term care of older and frail Americans also looms as a challenge. Clinton's $5 billion per year long-term care agenda, the most comprehensive offered by a candidate, would provide a $3,000 tax credit to caregivers and double the funding of current caregiver support programs. She would also create consumer advocates to fight long-term-care insurance abuses and help improve nursing home quality, and she would fund recruitment and training of personnel.
My survey suggests that at this point in the campaign, retirement issues rank far from the top of the candidates' agendas. Once the primaries are over and the nominees have been chosen, perhaps a nationally televised debate on retirement would spark more focus and momentum. After all, the Census Bureau reports that in 2006, one-third of all registered voters were in the 45- to 64-year-old age group, and when voters 65 and older are added in, the total rises to fully 50%.
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