Business doubts impact of new laws in chaotic China
BEIJING (AFP) — Two landmark laws that have just gone into effect in China look to drastically alter the business environment, but the reality may turn out to be different, analysts said.
In booming, chaotic China, enforcement of any law can be weak or non-existent, and the impacts of the new ones that aim to equalise income tax and offer more protection for workers could similarly be muted, they argued.
“Very often, laws are simply ignored by local governments, employers, and even legal enforcement agencies,” said Qian Wang, an economist with JPMorgan Chase Bank.
On the face of it, the Labour Law and Income Tax Law, which both began at the start of the year, would seem to entail sharp increases in the cost of doing business in China.
For one, the Labour Law gives Chinese workers the right to generous severance packages once they have stayed with a company for more than 10 years.
But that is little consolation for the worst-off members of the labour force -- unskilled or semi-skilled workers in fields such as construction and basic services, where contracts rarely last more than two years.
“The people they are trying to protect with the Labour Law, the blue-collar workers at the factories or waitresses at restaurants, are not protected at all,” said Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai.
Moreover, some of the worst practices in China’s labour markets in recent years do not so much reflect a lack of laws, as they are indicative of flawed implementation.
One example was the shocking discovery last year of workers being kept in medieval-style slave-like conditions at brickyards in remote parts of China.
“The reappearance of slavery was not because it was legal before the new law, but because China has a very weak legal implementation system,” said JPMorgan Chase Bank’s Wang.
Similarly, the Income Tax Law was passed with much fanfare last year, but the full impacts of the new regulations remain to be seen.
The law is expected to do away with a generation’s worth of preferential tax treatment for foreign enterprises, who sometimes have paid as little as 15 percent of their income to Chinese government coffers.
Instead, nearly all of them will now have to pay 25 percent, the same as Chinese enterprises, which previously faced a much steeper 33-percent rate.
Presumably no one likes to see costs go up, but the reaction from foreign businesses has so far been relatively moderate.
Significantly, their focus has been more on the manner in which the rules will be implemented.
“US companies don’t object to unification of tax rates on an equal basis with Chinese enterprises, particularly if fairly applied and equally enforced,” said Robert Poole, vice president of The US-China Business Council.
Some companies may also be banking on the possibility that the new rules are not exactly set in stone, and that Chinese will adopt favourable rules to make up for the higher tax.
“It cannot be ruled out that some enterprises are lobbying the government. China has consulted plenty of companies to learn about their concerns and made some concessions,” said Ryan Chang, a tax expert with accounting firm Deloitte.
One concession, he said, included a cut in the withholding tax rate to 10 percent from 20 percent.
“We will see similar concessions. The law outlines the principles and general rules while many details of enforcement have yet to be announced, which provide much room for changes and flexibility,” he said.
“The government is likely to observe the situation and make adjustments.”
Technical Analysis: Can You Hear Me Now? By Paul Shread
With weakness in November and December continuing into the first week of January, the market continues to look more like 2000-2001 than we’d prefer. The Fed clearly isn’t being aggressive enough to stem the meltdown? Witness the hopeful mortgage market charts that are coming unglued here (first chart below, courtesy of Markit.com)? And it remains to be seen whether today’s jobs report was weak enough for the Fed to set aside its inflation concerns.
The S&P remains at the bottom of its six-month trading range. The index closed at 1406-1407 in August and November; below 1400 and 1360-1370 looks like the last stand for the bulls. 1420 is first resistance.
One hopeful note that those support levels might hold: the NYSE advance-decline is outperforming here, a sign that selling momentum may be slowing. That said, we don’t like the way commercial traders have been shorting the big S&P 500 contract, a trend we’d like to see reversed quickly.
The Dow needs to hold 12,748 on a closing basis, given the importance of Dow Theory. To the upside, 13,000-13,100 is resistance.
The Nasdaq needs to hold 2500 or it looks headed for a retest of 2400-2450. First resistance is 2550.
In short, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might not like waging a war that should have been fought by his predecessor, but the charts suggest it’s time to act.
And one more note: the high number of 90% volume days on the exchanges since mid-July (today was another) suggests that the SEC’s early July decision to remove restrictions on shorting (the uptick rule) might need to be revisited, or volatility could become the norm.
Paul Shread is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and member of the Market Technicians Association.
Island’s professionals heading for lucrative jobs on mainland amid economic woes at home
TAIPEI - TAIWAN’S place at the top of the industrial food chain is being threatened by a brain drain as professionals head to China for better career prospects amid political turmoil and an economic slowdown at home.
Taiwanese businessmen have invested in tens of thousands of Chinese factories that provide white-collar jobs such as accounting, management, production planning and quality control to their compatriots.
Expanding demand for expertise in other fields - notably asset management, business administration, research and development, marketing, medical sciences and aviation - has also prompted more Taiwanese to try their luck in China, which for more than half a century has been the island’s arch enemy.
According to 104 Corporation, a leading Taiwanese jobs website, some 15,000 people - or 6 per cent of those posting their resumes - were exploring prospects in China last month.
The number of posts offered on the 104 site by companies in Greater China, which includes China, Hong Kong and Macau, last month was 8,000.
‘The applicants wish to position themselves in the huge growing market. Those with experience look for career advancement, and fresh graduates hope to develop their potential there,’ said Mr Max Fang, public relations manager for the 104 Corporation.
Mr Sung Kuo-cheng, a researcher on Taiwan-China affairs at Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, said: ‘Along with the industries went capital and talent. But in this global village, it is only natural that the rising giant is luring more money and brains from the rest of the world, especially Taiwan.
‘But the worst part of the brain drain is the flight of top-level researchers in biochemistry, medicine, computer science, DNA engineering and aviation materials.’
Language similarities and close historical and cultural bonds across the narrow Taiwan Strait that separates Taiwan from China mean Taiwanese are at ease working there despite hostilities between the two governments, Mr Sung said.
An estimated one million Taiwanese, or 4.3 per cent of the island’s population, are working or living in China, according to the Mainland Affairs Council.
Most of those employed are in fields related to manufacturing and business, but in recent years professionals in the service industry as well as in the cultural fields - art, education, communications and entertainment - have also joined the China gold rush.
Last month, 12 Taiwanese pilots followed eight colleagues to join China’s Sichuan Airlines, reportedly for higher pay and better benefits.
People working in medicine have also been encouraged after Beijing relaxed a ban early last year to allow Taiwanese to practise medicine on short-term contracts.
Trade defies politics
TAIWAN and China separated in 1949 at the end of a civil war but Beijing still considers the island part of its territory and has threatened to invade if Taipei moves towards formal independence. But business and civilian exchanges have boomed in the past decade amid various liberalisations adopted by both sides.
Taiwanese business people have channelled an estimated US$150 billion (S$215 billion) into China, which took some 41 per cent of the island’s total exports in the first 11 months of last year.
A sluggish Taiwanese economy coupled with political instability has accelerated the exodus of industries to China, now Taiwan’s leading overseas investment destination.
An estimated one million Taiwanese, or 4.3 per cent of the island’s population, are working or living in China, according to the Mainland Affairs Council which handles cross-strait civilian affairs.
- Prefer fertiliser plays and farming equipment producers to food processors. Driven by the optimism over China's drive to raise agricultural output and ease food price pressure, the agriculture sector recorded acrossthe- board rally last week from fertiliser producers/distributors to food processors. However, instead of embracing the entire universe, we prefer fertiliser producers/distributors and farming equipment producers to food processors. We believe the food price rally in China is structural and will last for a few years, boding well for the former but hurting the latter. We like large urea producers – China BlueChem (3983.HK/HK$5.96/BUY) and China XLX (CXLX.SP/S$1.19/BUY), leading fertiliser distributor – Sinofert (297.HK/HK$8.30/BUY), farming equipment producers – First Tractor (38.HK/HK$4.48/BUY) and China Farm (CFE.SP/HK$0.58/BUY). They would benefit from the soaring crop prices and burgeoning planting activities in China. Meanwhile, we remain negative on food processors – Global Biochem (809.HK/HK$3.03/SELL) given the mounting margin pressure from further hikes in food prices and intensifying competition.
- Structural rally in food prices. We anticipate grain prices in China to increase further from 2007 through 2008, given the structural shortage caused by burgeoning food demand, diminishing farm acreage area and continuous migration of agricultural labour into cities. China's grain supply-demand balance has tightened significantly in recent years, given the buoyant consumption and sluggish output growth. Though China's grain output growth resumed a 4% growth during 2004-07 from sequential decline during 1998- 2003, grain price index in the country rose 7% last year, driven by strong demand.
- For instance, corn prices in China increased by over 30% last year to Rmb1,600/tonne, driven by limited output growth and strong demand from both domestic markets (for feed and corn-processing industries) and overseas markets (for bio-fuel production). Given the strong overseas corn prices, China's corn export rose 85% yoy to 4.87m tonnes in 11M07, fuelling domestic corn prices. China intends to curb corn exports to ease the tightness of domestic market, via cancelling the 13% VAT rebate on corn export since Dec 07 and imposing a 5% export tariff on corn in Jan 08. However, we expect the burgeoning domestic corn demand to further drive China corn price up. According to the National Grain & Oil Information Centre (NGOIC), China corn output would only climbed 0.9% yoy in 2007/08 crop year, lagging behind a 4.3% yoy domestic consumption growth. It cannot ruled out that China will transform from a corn exporter into a corn importer in the future.
- Fertiliser producers are the main beneficiary. Driven by strong crop prices and the resulting increase in plantation activities, fertiliser prices worldwide have increased significantly last year. It is known that FOB price of US Gulf urea granular has risen by over 40% to US$434/tonne last year, driven by strong demand for the plantation of bio-fuel corn. Given that domestic exfactory price of urea in China is only a half of FOB price in the US, China urea producers could achieve 10% higher ASP from export, even taking into account the current 30% export tariff for urea and freight cost. Last year, China exported 4-5m tonnes of urea, up 200% yoy. Driven by strong overseas urea prices, urea ex-factory price in China has risen to official cap of HK$1,725/tonne (>Rmb1,800/tonne in the southern China market).
0325 GMT [Dow Jones] China XLX Fertiliser (B9R.SG) +4.2% at S$1.24 in active trade, rebounding from early low of S$1.15, as investors continue to bet company poised to benefit from rising fertilizer demand. Local house dealer notes coal-based fertilizer producer’s average selling price has increased to CNY1,700/ton from CNY1,400/ton; expects interest to persist given strong earnings growth, prospects of M&A deals going forward; "this company is on my radar screen." Net profit for first 9 months of FY07 nearly tripled on-year on-year to CNY244.3 million, 3Q07 earnings more than doubled to CNY79.6 million on increased sales of higher margin products. Immediate resistance tipped at S$1.27 (61.8% Fibonacci mark between record S$1.50 high, November low of S$0.90). (FKH)
0346 GMT [Dow Jones] Indofood Agri Resources (5JS.SG) +4.2% at S$2.76; stock at all-time high as continued upward price pressure on crude palm oil (CPO) prices boosts sentiment. Fellow palm oil players also outperforming wider market; Golden Agri-Resources (G17.SG) +0.9% at S$2.36; Wilmar (F34.SG) down 0.4% at S$5.25; STI down 2.3%. Flooding in Malaysia has led to palm oil panic buying on fears of shortage, boosting CPO price, prospects for plantation owners. But volume dropping off, RSI, stochastic oscillator showing stock as overbought; suggests shares could pause for breath soon. Psychological resistance tipped at S$2.80. (KIG)
Below message for your attention. When visiting Malaysia, please be careful not to be fooled by these rascals.
Just a short story to remind you guys to collect your receipt after filling petrol in JB.
While queuing at the customs for our turn to stamp our passports to go back to Singapore, 2 Malay guys wearing Esso polo tees, probably from the station where I filled my tank, approached us and told us that we did not pay for our petrol (please note I’ve already handed our passports to the immigration officer).
Of course we told him we paid but the Malay guy asked me for receipt which I can’t produce since I don’t normally ask from the counter.
Hearing that, the officer, while holding the passports, refused to let us go unless we settle the payment. Even after telling them so many times that we paid, they didn’t let us go, and asked 1 of us to follow them back to check the CCTV. Of course we didn’t agree and told the officer to let all of us go back together to check.
He said yes, but has to leave the passports with him as he claimed that he had already stamped one of our passports. Rubbish! Because we didn’t see him stamp anything. In the end, my friend, who was rushing back to Singapore decided to just pay them ‘again’ and end the problem. The two guys looked happy as if the trip to look for us at the immigration paid off. In the end, I paid them 62RM when I only pumped 56.50 RM worth of synergy F1 petrol.
After that, the 2 guys walked to the officer’s booth and shake hands with the officer and the senior, happily. In front of us man... it appears that the staffs at the petrol stations will informed those people waiting at the immigration if t hey noticed anyone leaving the station without the receipt. So bros and sis, please remember to collect your receipt when paying for anything, yes anything there. Who knows what story they may have next time. Don’t give these please a chance to earn bonus @ your expense.
Johor stops Singaporeans from buying palm oil-based cooking oil
JOHOR’S Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Department has stopped Singaporeans from buying palm oil-based cooking oil, local media reported on Monday.
Officers have been deployed at Johor-Singapore Causeway and Malaysia-Singapore Second Link to check Singapore vehicles leaving the country, Enforcement Director Fahmi Kassin said.
‘We have also instructed supermarkets and shops to put up signs saying that palm oil-based, subsidised cooking oil is only for Malaysia. However, Singaporeans are allowed to buy other types of oil,’ the New Straits Times quoted Mr Fahmi as saying.
The measure was imposed after the shortage of palm oil-based cooking oil in parts of Johor state became acute on Friday.
The shortage was especially bad in rural areas and smaller sundry shops as these traders generally did not have large stocks, he said.
Checks at a supermarket and a hypermarket showed that their stocks of oil were quickly snapped up as soon as they opened for business.
Malaysian police foil attempt to smuggle cooking oil into Thailand Meanwhile, Malaysian marine police have foiled an attempt to smuggle cooking oil into Thailand with the seizure of more than 3,800 kg valued at RM10,000 (S$4,366).
The seizure was the first made by the authorities in northern state of Kelantan. A local man in his 50s was detained, Xinhua news agency reported on Monday.
Police spotted a man riding a motorcycle near the jetty in Tumpat, Kelantan on Sunday, Pengkalan Kubor marine police assistant commanding officer Wan Ismail Wan Mamat said.
‘They stopped him and found 25 boxes, each containing 17 packages of cooking oil, on him.’
‘After questioning him, the officers were taken to a store nearby where they seized 209 boxes,’ the New Straits Times quoted Mr Wan Ismail as saying.
Investigations showed the consignment was to be sent to suppliers in Thailand.
‘The cooking oil is sold in Thailand for RM3.20 per kg while it is priced at RM2.50 here,’ he said.
Malaysia is facing a cooking oil shortage crisis. Recently, the states of Kelantan, Pahang, Melaka and Kedah have been worst hit by the crisis and major supermarkets there were facing difficulty in replenishing stocks.
China asks for fair treatment of wealth funds: official
BEIJING (Reuters) - Rich nations should not discriminate against sovereign wealth funds from the developing world and must guard against protectionist sentiment, a senior Chinese official said in remarks published on Monday.
Sovereign wealth funds are a key source of global liquidity, which can help alleviate the current credit crunch, and their longer-term investment strategies help iron out market fluctuations, Wei Benhua, a senior official with China’s currency regulator, wrote in the China Business News.
The $200 billion wealth fund launched by China last year has bought stakes in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone, while taking pains to argue that it will play a benign role in global markets.
“The newly established China Investment Corp (CIC) has been grabbing global attention, and some certain countries are intentionally spreading the idea of a China threat,” said Wei, vice head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
Politicians in a number of Western countries have expressed concern that foreign governments could use sovereign wealth funds to seize stakes in strategic industries and some have called for controls on their investments.
Wealth funds, run by countries from Australia to Russia, have grown dramatically in the past decade. Worldwide, they manage about $2-3 trillion and that is on track to hit $10 trillion by 2012, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates.
“The international society should take a clear-cut stand against protectionism in various forms in both investments and the financial sector,” Wei wrote.
He said sovereign wealth funds should boost their transparency but cautioned against haste in doing so, saying this could lead to market panics.
Wei said the CIC would respect all laws in countries in which it invests and actively participate in global discussions to ensure that regulations covering sovereign wealth funds benefit its own development.
The Group of Seven (G7) in October called on the IMF to create best practice guidelines for these funds, building on existing best practices for foreign exchange reserve management.
The spreading fallout from the U.S. subprime crisis has made the task of governments managing their foreign exchange reserves all the more challenging, he said.
Taiwan Stock Index Plunges 4 Percent, Dragged Down by Electronics Shares, Wall Street's Drop
Monday January 7, 1:50 am ET
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan shares fell sharply on Monday, dragged down by weak electronics issues that tracked Friday's drop on Wall Street.
The Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange fell 337.73 points, or 4.11 percent, to 7,883.37 points, the lowest close since Dec. 20.
The electronics sector sank 6.6 percent, tracking Nasdaq's 3.8 percent decline on Friday.
In addition to fears about weakened U.S. economy, investors were also cautious ahead of Taiwan's legislative elections Saturday.
Traders said institutional investors were on the sidelines, pending the election outcome. Analysts have said a victory by the opposition Nationalist Party, which wants closer trade ties with rival China, could boost the market.
Daiwa Securities trader Harvey Chang expected a rebound on Tuesday with bargain hunting on stocks with sound fundamentals, such as LCD makers.
AU Optronics Corp. fell the daily downside limit of 7 percent to NT$54.90. MediaTek also declined 7 percent to NT$341.50, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plunged 7 percent to NT$55.8.
LAS VEGAS--"Disappointed" probably isn't a strong enough word to describe when a major focus of your business plan and the highlight of your Consumer Electronics Show pitch is derailed two days before by one of your former partners.
As the most prominent backer of the HD DVD high-definition video format, Toshiba's press conference at CES this morning drew a lot of interest among the tech press, mostly out of morbid curiosity. What could it say after Warner Bros. announced Friday it would exclusively back rival Blu-ray, after the studio had played it neutral up until now?
Toshiba didn't waste any time addressing the 800-pound gorilla in the room. President and chief executive of Toshiba America's consumer division, Akio Ozaka, took the stage to lament the studio's announcement despite strong sales of HD DVD players in the last quarter of 2007.
"Unit sales of HD DVD in Q4 were the strongest yet. Therefore we were surprised by Warner Bros. announcement that it plans to abandon HD DVD later this year," said Ozaka. "We were particularly disappointed this decision was made in spite of the momentum HD DVD has gained in this market."
Toshiba vice president of marketing for digital audio and video products Jodi Salley was even more somber.
"As you can imagine, this is a tough day for me," she said as she took the stage. "I fully expected to come here this morning to share with you the successes of the last year of HD DVD, (but) the events of the last few days have shifted the focus of my comments."
Instead of announcing a fourth-generation HD DVD player as expected prior to Warner Bros. announcement on Friday, Toshiba took the opportunity to simply reaffirm its faith in the format, and point out features like Web connectivity and the presence of Ethernet ports on every player, which Blu-ray does not have.
"It is difficult to read pundits declaring HD DVD dead...but we've been declared dead before," Sally said.
Despite that sense of optimism, she didn't offer any details on what Toshiba's next move will be.
Asian stocks hit a two-week low as recession fears grow
January 7, 2008
HONG KONG: Asian stocks slumped to a two-week low on Monday, extending a poor start in 2008, after weak U.S. jobs data heightened fears of recession in the region's top export market, while bond prices rose as investors sought safety.
Oil prices, which hit a record above $100 barrel just last week, fell on concern global demand would suffer from a U.S.-led slowdown, but the dollar edged higher from a six-week low on Friday as some saw the currency as oversold.
"The sluggish jobs data is reinforcing concerns that the subprime mortgage crisis is pushing the U.S. economy towards a recession," said Kim Young-gak, an analyst at Hyundai Securities.
"Now it looks like the U.S. Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point this month."
MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan had lost 2.3 percent in afternoon trade. Earlier, the index hit its lowest since Dec. 21.
The index has dropped 3.3 percent this year, weighed down by concerns about the world's top economy.
European stocks are also forecast to fall on Monday according to financial bookmakers, with Britain's FTSE 100 seen down between 10 to 18 points and the German DAX expected 27 to 33 points lower.
Tokyo shares dropped to a 17-month low at one point, ending down 1.3 percent, after slumping 4 percent on Friday, their first trading day of the year.
Taiwan stocks shed 4.1 percent, while other markets such as Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore were down more than 2 percent each.
Exporters such as South Korean auto maker Hyundai Motor Co were hit hard after the U.S. non-farm payrolls figures showed U.S. job growth skidded to a near-halt in December and unemployment rose to a two-year high.
Declines in chip-related shares were also among the day's biggest, extending recent falls following downgrades of the sector by a couple of U.S. brokerages last week.
Japanese microchip equipment maker Tokyo Electron fell 2.8 percent, while South Korea's Samsung Electronics was down 3.7 percent. TSMC, the leading Taiwan contract chip maker, dropped 7 percent.
But bucking the trend, Chinese infrastructure-related stocks rallied following news of contracts won in the sector, with China Railway Group rising 3 percent.
Commodity-related shares, such as miners BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals, also fell on concerns a slowdown in global demand growth would dent a recent boom in prices for resources such as oil and metals.
U.S. crude futures retreated 61 cents to $97.30 a barrel, while London Brent crude eased to $96.31.
The dollar edged up to around 108.9 against the yen from a six-week low hit on Friday, but remained steady against the euro.
"The market is still adjusting its view of how a U.S. slowdown is going to affect Asia," said Gerrard Katz, head of North Asia currency trading at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.
"As long as Asian stocks are weak, fund managers are buying U.S. Treasuries and selling positions in a traditional safe-haven play."
Japanese government March bond futures hit a one-month high on Monday as fears of a U.S. recession grew and investors bet the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points during its Jan 29-30 meeting.
U.S. short-term interest rate futures jumped on Friday, pricing in as much as a 70 percent chance that the Fed would cut rates by 50 basis points
The Fed has lowered its benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points since September to 4.25 percent.
Spot gold edged down to $855.80/$856.60 as energy prices fell, but stayed within reach of a record high of $869.05 traded last week, as a weak dollar makes the precious metal cheaper in other currencies.
One of the big questions at CES is how the HD DVD camp would respond to Warner Bros.' decision to throw what most thought was the decisive vote behind Blu-ray DVD. As the largest studio accounting for about 20 percent of movies, the general wisdom was that HD DVD was dead. Long live HD DVD. No more next generation DVD format war.
But the early word from companies like Toshiba, LG and Pinoeer is that the struggle ain't over.
Akio Ozaka, president and CEO of Toshiba America, made no sign the company, which has most driven the HD DVD format, is ready to give up. He said in the Toshiba press conference at CES that HD DVD is still the best format for consumers.
"We are firm in the belief that HD DVD best suits the needs and wants of consumers," he said.
That's not to say the news didn't totally blind side Toshiba. "We are surprised by Warner Bros. announcing its plans to abandon HD DVD later this year," said Ozaka. "We are particularly disappointed that this decision was made despite the momentum HD DVD has gained in the US market and other markets in 2007."
In a somewhat emotional address, Jodi Sally, vice president of marketing digital a/v at Toshiba, said the news had forced her to shift her comments Sunday, giving her a "tough day." But she was still upbeat on HD DVD players, which she said have sold more than 1 million units in North America.
Allan Jason, vice president of marketing for LG said the company will continue to make HD DVD players, like its combo Blu-ray/HD DVD player, as long as Universal and Paramount, the remaining two studios in the HD DVD camp, continue to make movies in that format. Ultimately, LG will wait until there are no more HD DVD movies, it appears.
So, while the Warner Bros. announcement has shaken the HD DVD camp, it's too early to see any white flags. It might be all over but the shouting but we'll have to wait to see when the HD DVD guys actually throws in the towel.
China Communists sacked for having too many children: state media
AFP - Monday, January 7
BEIJING (AFP) - - Authorities in a central China province have expelled hundreds of people from the Communist Party or their government posts for having more than one child, state media said Monday.
At least 93,084 people in Hubei province last year had more children than they were allowed under the policy of one per family, Xinhua news agency said quoting the provincial family planning commission.
They included 1,678 officials or party members, it added, saying about 500 had been expelled from the party and 395 stripped of their official posts.
Previous reports said the officials had also been fined.
The violators included seven national and local lawmakers or political advisors, Xinhua added.
"More party members, celebrities and well-off people are violating the policies... which has undermined social equality," commission director Yang Youwang was quoted as saying.
No information was given as to the punishments meted out to the more than 90,000 other people in Hubei who violated the "one-child" policy last year.
China's family planning policy began in the late 1970s as a way to control the world's largest population, now at 1.3 billion people.
Generally, urban families can have one child and rural families can have two if the first is a girl. About 400 million births have been averted thanks to the policy, the government has said.
But in recent years the policy has been routinely ignored in rural areas, while increasing numbers of China's urban new rich have been able to afford the requisite fines for violating the rules.
Chinese parents have traditionally favoured large families -- and sons, in particular -- to support them in their old age.
The policy has been notorious from the start for the harsh punishments and brutal methods used to enforce it, such as forced late-term abortions and the sterilisation of women.
Several areas of the poor southern province of Guangxi erupted in riots last year after officials launched a harsh crackdown to enforce the policy, with residents saying forced abortions were among the methods used by authorities.
Singapore Air Falls on Rival Bid for China Eastern (Update3)
By Irene Shen
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore Airlines Ltd., bidding to buy a stake in China Eastern Airlines Corp., fell to the lowest in 10 months in the city-state after Air China Ltd.'s parent pledged to block the deal with a higher offer.
The Singaporean carrier dropped 2.6 percent to S$16.52, the lowest since March 7. China National Aviation Holding Co. has said it will submit a bid should China Eastern shareholders reject a plan to sell a 24 percent stake to Singapore Air and parent Temasek Holdings Pte tomorrow.
Losing the bid would hamper Singapore Air's plans to tap demand in China, where air travel may grow fivefold by 2025. A tie-up with China Eastern would give Air China a base in Shanghai, China's commercial capital, and a dominant position in the world's second-largest air market.
``It makes commercial sense for Air China's parent to compete for a foothold in Shanghai,'' said Li Jun, an analyst at Everbright Securities Co. in Shanghai. ``Air China needs to clear this obstacle to realize its dream of consolidating the nation's airlines.''
China Eastern fell 3.8 percent to HK$6.66 at the close of trading in Hong Kong and was unchanged at 20.63 yuan in Shanghai. Air China declined 2.6 percent to HK$10.52 in Hong Kong and dropped 1 percent to 28.89 yuan in Shanghai.
Government Regulation
China's government sanctioned Singapore Air buying a stake in China Eastern to improve the carrier's performance. In September, Air China's parent and affiliate Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. abandoned a plan to make a counter-bid. Since then, Air China's former chairman, Li Jiaxiang, has been named the head of the aviation regulator.
China Eastern, Air China and China Southern Airlines Co., the nation's three biggest carriers, are all ultimately controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, or SASAC, an arm of the State Council, China's cabinet.
``The Singapore Air deal is set to be rejected on Jan. 8,'' Ally Ma, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. wrote in a report today. ``The political uncertainty has been cleared.''
China National Aviation owns about 10 percent of China Eastern's minority shares. Opposition from one-third of minority shareholders will block the deal.
Ma said China National has won support from investors including Barclays Plc and UBS AG to veto the deal. China National Aviation and its supporters hold a total of 55.2 percent of China Eastern's Hong Kong shares, Ma said.
Clare Williams, a Hong Kong-based spokeswoman for Barclays Capital, and Mark Panday, a Hong Kong-based spokesman for UBS, declined to comment today.
Counter-Bid
China National Aviation yesterday said it would offer at least HK$5 a share for a stake in China Eastern if shareholders veto the Singapore Airlines deal. Singapore Airlines and parent Temasek agreed to buy a 24 percent stake in Shanghai-based China Eastern for HK$3.80 per share last year.
``It's a bargain of power and interest,'' said Jack Xu, an analyst at Sinopac Securities Co. in Shanghai. ``If China Eastern fails to sell shares to Singapore Airlines, another round of speculation on domestic consolidation will start.''
A stake in the largest carrier in Shanghai would give Singapore Air guaranteed access to the second-busiest hub in the world's fastest growing aviation market.
Shanghai Hub
``The strategic partnership proposed by China Eastern, Singapore Airlines and Temasek is a long-term one. It is not a financial trade,'' said Singapore Air spokesman Stephen Forshaw. ``Its approval by CEA minority shareholders this week will, in our view, be positive for the prospects of China Eastern's share prices.''
China Eastern is aiming to expand its local market share to more than 50 percent from the current 40 percent, Chairman Li Fenghua said on Sept. 2. That compares with Air China's 15 percent in the Shanghai market.
Shanghai handled a record 51.6 million air passengers in 2007, up 11.8 percent from a year earlier. Seventy-one carriers are operating routes connecting the city with 179 cities worldwide.
Feldstein Says Recession Odds More Than 50% on Jobs (Update2)
By Steve Matthews
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, head of the group that dates U.S. economic cycles, said the odds of a recession have risen to more than 50 percent after a report showing unemployment jumped in December.
``We are now talking about more likely than not,'' Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in an interview in New Orleans two days ago. ``I have been saying about 50 percent. This now pushes it up a bit above that.''
The jobless rate rose to 5 percent in December, the highest in two years, from 4.7 percent in November, a government report showed last week. Payrolls rose by 18,000, the least since August 2003.
The U.S. economic expansion is cooling after a third- quarter surge as the housing slump enters its third year and consumer spending slows. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and ex-Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers are among those raising the prospect of a recession.
The increase in unemployment will hurt consumer confidence, Feldstein said in the interview. He was in New Orleans to speak at an economics panel discussion on productivity that was part of the annual meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations.
``Consumers, with essentially no growth in jobs in December, are going to be more nervous about the future,'' said Feldstein, 68. ``They are going to be a little more reluctant to spend, and that is going to put a further drag on growth in 2008.''
Growth to Slow
The U.S. economy, the world's largest, grew at a 1 percent pace in the fourth quarter after expanding at a 4.9 percent rate the previous three months, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month. Growth for all of 2008 is projected at 2.3 percent.
The economy is heading for ``one of the worst recessions we've had in a while,'' investor Jim Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview today from Singapore. He said investors should sell the dollar as global currencies weaken.
The Federal Reserve has cut its main interest rate three times since Sept. 18, to 4.25 percent from 5.25 percent. The next meeting is on Jan. 29-30.
``They have to keep lowering rates,'' Feldstein said. A reduction of half a percentage point in the federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight loans, would ``not be a bad thing at this point.''
Fiscal Stimulus
Rate cuts alone may not be enough to keep the economy growing, Feldstein said. He said Congress may have to cut taxes to stoke consumer spending and restore confidence.
``I am not sure that reduction in rates is going to have as much traction as it did in the past because so much of the problems now are problems of confidence in the financial sector and of bank capital,'' he said. ``So that is why I have been saying we need some kind of a fiscal stimulus.''
Housing starts fell 3.7 percent in November from October and were 48 percent below their January 2006 peak, according to a Commerce Department report last month.
``Housing starts have collapsed, so you have low construction, low household wealth and that is now beginning to accumulate and to shift over into reductions in the growth of employment and therefore in the growth of incomes,'' Feldstein said.
`Nowhere Near' Recession
The bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee isn't close to meeting to decide whether a recession has started, said Robert Hall, an economist at Stanford University who leads the panel.
``The committee operates retrospectively,'' Hall said in an e-mail response to a question about the committee's plans. ``As a general matter, we don't meet until it is reasonably clear that a downturn has occurred,'' he said. ``We are nowhere near that point today.''
Economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. say more evidence is needed before they can say whether the U.S. economy is contracting.
``Recession talk seems premature,'' said Lehman Chief Global Fixed-Income Strategist Jack Malvey and Chief U.S. Economist Ethan Harris in a note. ``Confirmation still requires additional data, in particular December retail sales, out in mid-January.''
At the same time, ``odds of outright recession certainly have increased'' and a ```recession spell' at some juncture over the next two years should hardly surprise markets,'' they said.
Feldstein has headed the NBER, which like Harvard is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, since 1984. He also served in the post from 1977 to 1982. Feldstein plans to step down from the NBER in June to conduct more research on his own, his assistant, Norma McEvoy, said in September.
Rogers Says U.S. to Have Worst Recession `in a While' (Update2)
By Saijel Kishan and Mark Barton
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy is heading for a recession that may be the worst ``in a while'' and investors should sell the dollar as global currencies weaken, investor Jim Rogers said.
``It's going to be one of the worst recessions we've had in a while because we had so many excesses going into it,'' Rogers, chairman of New York-based Rogers Holdings, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today from Singapore. ``It's going to be bad for all of us as currencies come under more and more stress and we have more inflation in the world.''
The U.S. and U.K. governments have been ``lying'' about inflation, Rogers said, adding that he's selling their respective currencies.
The dollar dropped for a second straight year in 2007, falling 8.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis as the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times. Rising energy and food prices have pushed up inflation in Europe.
``I hope by the end of this year all of my assets will be out of the U.S. dollar,'' Rogers said. ``The dollar is a currency that's terribly flawed and it's going to be under duress for many years to come.''
Rogers said in a Nov. 15 interview that investors should sell the dollar and that he expects to be rid of all his U.S. currency assets this year. He reiterated today that he's also buying the Chinese yuan and the Swiss franc as other currencies weaken.
Agricultural Commodities
Rogers, who has been a commodity bull since 1999, said that agriculture may be the best investment among commodities in the event of a world recession.
``If you're worried about a recession, you might think about buying agricultural commodities,'' Rogers said. ``I suspect agriculture is going to do well no matter what happens to the world economy.''
Cotton, coffee and sugar may gain the most, he said, adding that he wouldn't buy crude oil after prices rose above $100 a barrel last week, or industrial metals such as tin or lead because a slowing U.S. economy would curb demand.
Commodities are in their seventh year of gains because of a lack of investment in production capacity and rising demand from expanding economies in Asia. They have also gained as the U.S. dollar fell, making resources such as oil and wheat, which are denominated in the U.S. currency, cheaper for foreign buyers.
Rogers said commodities will gain even if the dollar declines, because of supply shortages.
``All commodities are going to be in much shorter supply for another decade,'' he said. ``So even if the dollar goes up, commodities are going to go higher.''
21 comments:
Business doubts impact of new laws in chaotic China
BEIJING (AFP) — Two landmark laws that have just gone into effect in China look to drastically alter the business environment, but the reality may turn out to be different, analysts said.
In booming, chaotic China, enforcement of any law can be weak or non-existent, and the impacts of the new ones that aim to equalise income tax and offer more protection for workers could similarly be muted, they argued.
“Very often, laws are simply ignored by local governments, employers, and even legal enforcement agencies,” said Qian Wang, an economist with JPMorgan Chase Bank.
On the face of it, the Labour Law and Income Tax Law, which both began at the start of the year, would seem to entail sharp increases in the cost of doing business in China.
For one, the Labour Law gives Chinese workers the right to generous severance packages once they have stayed with a company for more than 10 years.
But that is little consolation for the worst-off members of the labour force -- unskilled or semi-skilled workers in fields such as construction and basic services, where contracts rarely last more than two years.
“The people they are trying to protect with the Labour Law, the blue-collar workers at the factories or waitresses at restaurants, are not protected at all,” said Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai.
Moreover, some of the worst practices in China’s labour markets in recent years do not so much reflect a lack of laws, as they are indicative of flawed implementation.
One example was the shocking discovery last year of workers being kept in medieval-style slave-like conditions at brickyards in remote parts of China.
“The reappearance of slavery was not because it was legal before the new law, but because China has a very weak legal implementation system,” said JPMorgan Chase Bank’s Wang.
Similarly, the Income Tax Law was passed with much fanfare last year, but the full impacts of the new regulations remain to be seen.
The law is expected to do away with a generation’s worth of preferential tax treatment for foreign enterprises, who sometimes have paid as little as 15 percent of their income to Chinese government coffers.
Instead, nearly all of them will now have to pay 25 percent, the same as Chinese enterprises, which previously faced a much steeper 33-percent rate.
Presumably no one likes to see costs go up, but the reaction from foreign businesses has so far been relatively moderate.
Significantly, their focus has been more on the manner in which the rules will be implemented.
“US companies don’t object to unification of tax rates on an equal basis with Chinese enterprises, particularly if fairly applied and equally enforced,” said Robert Poole, vice president of The US-China Business Council.
Some companies may also be banking on the possibility that the new rules are not exactly set in stone, and that Chinese will adopt favourable rules to make up for the higher tax.
“It cannot be ruled out that some enterprises are lobbying the government. China has consulted plenty of companies to learn about their concerns and made some concessions,” said Ryan Chang, a tax expert with accounting firm Deloitte.
One concession, he said, included a cut in the withholding tax rate to 10 percent from 20 percent.
“We will see similar concessions. The law outlines the principles and general rules while many details of enforcement have yet to be announced, which provide much room for changes and flexibility,” he said.
“The government is likely to observe the situation and make adjustments.”
Technical Analysis: Can You Hear Me Now?
By Paul Shread
With weakness in November and December continuing into the first week of January, the market continues to look more like 2000-2001 than we’d prefer. The Fed clearly isn’t being aggressive enough to stem the meltdown? Witness the hopeful mortgage market charts that are coming unglued here (first chart below, courtesy of Markit.com)? And it remains to be seen whether today’s jobs report was weak enough for the Fed to set aside its inflation concerns.
The S&P remains at the bottom of its six-month trading range. The index closed at 1406-1407 in August and November; below 1400 and 1360-1370 looks like the last stand for the bulls. 1420 is first resistance.
One hopeful note that those support levels might hold: the NYSE advance-decline is outperforming here, a sign that selling momentum may be slowing. That said, we don’t like the way commercial traders have been shorting the big S&P 500 contract, a trend we’d like to see reversed quickly.
The Dow needs to hold 12,748 on a closing basis, given the importance of Dow Theory. To the upside, 13,000-13,100 is resistance.
The Nasdaq needs to hold 2500 or it looks headed for a retest of 2400-2450. First resistance is 2550.
In short, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might not like waging a war that should have been fought by his predecessor, but the charts suggest it’s time to act.
And one more note: the high number of 90% volume days on the exchanges since mid-July (today was another) suggests that the SEC’s early July decision to remove restrictions on shorting (the uptick rule) might need to be revisited, or volatility could become the norm.
Paul Shread is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and member of the Market Technicians Association.
Taiwan fears flow of talent to China
Island’s professionals heading for lucrative jobs on mainland amid economic woes at home
TAIPEI - TAIWAN’S place at the top of the industrial food chain is being threatened by a brain drain as professionals head to China for better career prospects amid political turmoil and an economic slowdown at home.
Taiwanese businessmen have invested in tens of thousands of Chinese factories that provide white-collar jobs such as accounting, management, production planning and quality control to their compatriots.
Expanding demand for expertise in other fields - notably asset management, business administration, research and development, marketing, medical sciences and aviation - has also prompted more Taiwanese to try their luck in China, which for more than half a century has been the island’s arch enemy.
According to 104 Corporation, a leading Taiwanese jobs website, some 15,000 people - or 6 per cent of those posting their resumes - were exploring prospects in China last month.
The number of posts offered on the 104 site by companies in Greater China, which includes China, Hong Kong and Macau, last month was 8,000.
‘The applicants wish to position themselves in the huge growing market. Those with experience look for career advancement, and fresh graduates hope to develop their potential there,’ said Mr Max Fang, public relations manager for the 104 Corporation.
Mr Sung Kuo-cheng, a researcher on Taiwan-China affairs at Chengchi University’s Institute of International Relations, said: ‘Along with the industries went capital and talent. But in this global village, it is only natural that the rising giant is luring more money and brains from the rest of the world, especially Taiwan.
‘But the worst part of the brain drain is the flight of top-level researchers in biochemistry, medicine, computer science, DNA engineering and aviation materials.’
Language similarities and close historical and cultural bonds across the narrow Taiwan Strait that separates Taiwan from China mean Taiwanese are at ease working there despite hostilities between the two governments, Mr Sung said.
An estimated one million Taiwanese, or 4.3 per cent of the island’s population, are working or living in China, according to the Mainland Affairs Council.
Most of those employed are in fields related to manufacturing and business, but in recent years professionals in the service industry as well as in the cultural fields - art, education, communications and entertainment - have also joined the China gold rush.
Last month, 12 Taiwanese pilots followed eight colleagues to join China’s Sichuan Airlines, reportedly for higher pay and better benefits.
People working in medicine have also been encouraged after Beijing relaxed a ban early last year to allow Taiwanese to practise medicine on short-term contracts.
Trade defies politics
TAIWAN and China separated in 1949 at the end of a civil war but Beijing still considers the island part of its territory and has threatened to invade if Taipei moves towards formal independence.
But business and civilian exchanges have boomed in the past decade amid various liberalisations adopted by both sides.
Taiwanese business people have channelled an estimated US$150 billion (S$215 billion) into China, which took some 41 per cent of the island’s total exports in the first 11 months of last year.
A sluggish Taiwanese economy coupled with political instability has accelerated the exodus of industries to China, now Taiwan’s leading overseas investment destination.
An estimated one million Taiwanese, or 4.3 per cent of the island’s population, are working or living in China, according to the Mainland Affairs Council which handles cross-strait civilian affairs.
CHINA AGRICULTURE by UOBKH
- Prefer fertiliser plays and farming equipment producers to food processors. Driven by the optimism over China's drive to raise agricultural output and ease food price pressure, the agriculture sector recorded acrossthe- board rally last week from fertiliser producers/distributors to food processors. However, instead of embracing the entire universe, we prefer fertiliser producers/distributors and farming equipment producers to food processors. We believe the food price rally in China is structural and will last for a few years, boding well for the former but hurting the latter. We like large urea producers – China BlueChem (3983.HK/HK$5.96/BUY) and China XLX (CXLX.SP/S$1.19/BUY), leading fertiliser distributor – Sinofert (297.HK/HK$8.30/BUY), farming equipment producers – First Tractor (38.HK/HK$4.48/BUY) and China Farm (CFE.SP/HK$0.58/BUY). They would benefit from the soaring crop prices and burgeoning planting activities in China. Meanwhile, we remain negative on food processors – Global Biochem (809.HK/HK$3.03/SELL) given the mounting margin pressure from further hikes in food prices and intensifying competition.
- Structural rally in food prices. We anticipate grain prices in China to increase further from 2007 through 2008, given the structural shortage caused by burgeoning food demand, diminishing farm acreage area and continuous migration of agricultural labour into cities. China's grain supply-demand balance has tightened significantly in recent years, given the buoyant consumption and sluggish output growth. Though China's grain output growth resumed a 4% growth during 2004-07 from sequential decline during 1998- 2003, grain price index in the country rose 7% last year, driven by strong demand.
- For instance, corn prices in China increased by over 30% last year to Rmb1,600/tonne, driven by limited output growth and strong demand from both domestic markets (for feed and corn-processing industries) and overseas markets (for bio-fuel production). Given the strong overseas corn prices, China's corn export rose 85% yoy to 4.87m tonnes in 11M07, fuelling domestic corn prices. China intends to curb corn exports to ease the tightness of domestic market, via cancelling the 13% VAT rebate on corn export since Dec 07 and imposing a 5% export tariff on corn in Jan 08. However, we expect the burgeoning domestic corn demand to further drive China corn price up. According to the National Grain & Oil Information Centre (NGOIC), China corn output would only climbed 0.9% yoy in 2007/08 crop year, lagging behind a 4.3% yoy domestic consumption growth. It cannot ruled out that China will transform from a corn exporter into a corn importer in the future.
- Fertiliser producers are the main beneficiary. Driven by strong crop prices and the resulting increase in plantation activities, fertiliser prices worldwide have increased significantly last year. It is known that FOB price of US Gulf urea granular has risen by over 40% to US$434/tonne last year, driven by strong demand for the plantation of bio-fuel corn. Given that domestic exfactory price of urea in China is only a half of FOB price in the US, China urea producers could achieve 10% higher ASP from export, even taking into account the current 30% export tariff for urea and freight cost. Last year, China exported 4-5m tonnes of urea, up 200% yoy. Driven by strong overseas urea prices, urea ex-factory price in China has risen to official cap of HK$1,725/tonne (>Rmb1,800/tonne in the southern China market).
Technical call for Chemoil Energy Ltd - KE
Ø Despite a weak opening in the broad market, Chemoil Energy managed to stay firm.
Ø If Chemoil Energy manages to surmount above the trading range at US$0.515, it is likely to retest its next resistance at .
Ø Intraday technical indicators remain positive, target at US$0.545 should be a reachable near term target.
Ø Cut loss at US$0.495 if price trend lower unexpectedly.
0325 GMT [Dow Jones] China XLX Fertiliser (B9R.SG) +4.2% at S$1.24 in active trade, rebounding from early low of S$1.15, as investors continue to bet company poised to benefit from rising fertilizer demand. Local house dealer notes coal-based fertilizer producer’s average selling price has increased to CNY1,700/ton from CNY1,400/ton; expects interest to persist given strong earnings growth, prospects of M&A deals going forward; "this company is on my radar screen." Net profit for first 9 months of FY07 nearly tripled on-year on-year to CNY244.3 million, 3Q07 earnings more than doubled to CNY79.6 million on increased sales of higher margin products. Immediate resistance tipped at S$1.27 (61.8% Fibonacci mark between record S$1.50 high, November low of S$0.90). (FKH)
0346 GMT [Dow Jones] Indofood Agri Resources (5JS.SG) +4.2% at S$2.76; stock at all-time high as continued upward price pressure on crude palm oil (CPO) prices boosts sentiment. Fellow palm oil players also outperforming wider market; Golden Agri-Resources (G17.SG) +0.9% at S$2.36; Wilmar (F34.SG) down 0.4% at S$5.25; STI down 2.3%. Flooding in Malaysia has led to palm oil panic buying on fears of shortage, boosting CPO price, prospects for plantation owners. But volume dropping off, RSI, stochastic oscillator showing stock as overbought; suggests shares could pause for breath soon. Psychological resistance tipped at S$2.80. (KIG)
Dear All,
Below message for your attention. When visiting Malaysia, please be careful not to be fooled by these rascals.
Just a short story to remind you guys to collect your receipt after filling petrol in JB.
While queuing at the customs for our turn to stamp our passports to go back to Singapore, 2 Malay guys wearing Esso polo tees, probably from the station where I filled my tank, approached us and told us that we did not pay for our petrol (please note I’ve already handed our passports to the immigration officer).
Of course we told him we paid but the Malay guy asked me for receipt which I can’t produce since I don’t normally ask from the counter.
Hearing that, the officer, while holding the passports, refused to let us go unless we settle the payment. Even after telling them so many times that we paid, they didn’t let us go, and asked 1 of us to follow them back to check the CCTV. Of course we didn’t agree and told the officer to let all of us go back together to check.
He said yes, but has to leave the passports with him as he claimed that he had already stamped one of our passports. Rubbish! Because we didn’t see him stamp anything. In the end, my friend, who was rushing back to Singapore decided to just pay them ‘again’ and end the problem. The two guys looked happy as if the trip to look for us at the immigration paid off. In the end, I paid them 62RM when I only pumped 56.50 RM worth of synergy F1 petrol.
After that, the 2 guys walked to the officer’s booth and shake hands with the officer and the senior, happily. In front of us man... it appears that the staffs at the petrol stations will informed those people waiting at the immigration if t hey noticed anyone leaving the station without the receipt. So bros and sis, please remember to collect your receipt when paying for anything, yes anything there. Who knows what story they may have next time. Don’t give these please a chance to earn bonus @ your expense.
环球金融: 济陷困局华府怎自救?
2008年01月07日 星期一
上周最后一段提醒投资者，不要对美国的就业数据存有太大憧憬，结果美国上周五公布了一个令人震惊的就业数据，上月非农业新增职位只有1.8万个，如扣除政府的新增职位，12月美国私人企业新增职位其实出现负数。更严重的是，美国失业率更由11月的4.7%，增加至5%，增幅远超市场的预期，此数据似乎告诉投资者一点，就是美国经济受楼市影响的后遗症，正逐步浮现。
事实上，上周已提醒投资者，美国的楼市问题已扩散到美国消费层面上，但想不到的是，在美元弱势下，出口仍然无法支持美国的经济，就连ISM制造业指数，亦跌穿50的扩张警戒线，至只有47.7，就业数据亦显示出，美国的制造业就业情况，正出现收缩。在楼市不济，次按令金融业受困，消费亦出现放缓，制造业亦正在收缩，加上就业市道亦陷入困境，美国的经济还有甚麼可以憧憬？ 难怪市场越来越多声音觉得，美国经济陷入衰退的机会，将达五成或以上。
经济前景不明朗，美股自然难有支持，道指在上周五便急跌超过250点，全周更大跌超过4%，惟最令人忧虑的是，纳指及标普500指数，周五的跌幅远较道指为大，似乎市场已出现恐慌性抛售的情况。技术上，道指已跌至接近12，700点的重要关口，12，500点至12，700点已成为道指的重要支持区，一旦失守，后市堪虞。
当然，道指能否稳守此关，还有一丝希望，就是美国总统乔治布殊短期到底会推出甚麼救市方案。当然，12月中乔治布殊推出的救市措施，已令不少投资者感到失望万分，今次再度推出，市场似乎亦不敢存有太大期望，但既然是最后希望，投资者似乎亦应该给他一个机会。
惟若美股最终无力上企於12，500点至12，700点支持区，全球股市似乎亦难免受到拖累，尤其是欧洲股市，因为欧洲的出口已因欧元急升受到影响，英国楼市亦摇摇欲坠，现在欧洲股市的唯一支持就只有美国股市，如果美股亦失陷，欧洲股市相信亦难免跟随大幅下泻。
王冠一(口述)
外汇评论员(黄伟康笔录)
以上评论纯为作者的个人意见
曾淵滄：香港今年形勢大好？
2008-1-7
新的一年，港股連跌兩天之後，第3天回升，但是，美股則連跌3天，累積跌幅不小，道瓊斯指數已跌破13000點，上周五收市為12800點。
美國經濟已真正陷入兩難局面，經濟收縮的現象已現，失業率上升，銀行壞賬驚人，銀行股權紛紛落入他國政府的基金手上。經濟差，自然得再減息，減息又導致美元貶值，通脹加劇。
現在，連總統布殊也不知道該怎麼辦。上星期五，他公開告訴美國人：「不要以為經濟增長是理所當然的！」這是很糟糕的訊號，看來，美國人真得準備應付即將來臨的經濟衰退。
減息的確能救衰退，過去許多次的經濟衰退都是靠減息救活的。但是，大幅度減息會導致全球對美元失去信心，美元價值一旦崩潰，造成的全球金融風暴更可怕。也因此，美國聯邦儲備局也只能慢慢的減，減息減得慢，就沒有辦法救經濟。
今日美國面對的問題與1991年至1992年時代很相似，很湊巧的，當時美國總統正是現任總統的父親，上下兩代都喜歡打仗，專打伊拉克。老布殊打得不徹底，勝利後班師回朝；小布殊打得徹底，佔領伊拉克，卻泥足深陷。當年，老布殊不斷的減息以救美國經濟，但還是救不來，最後自己下台，得益的是克林頓。克林頓甚麼事也不必做，經濟就復蘇了，因為減息的效應剛好在他上台之後顯現。1991年至1992年的歷史是很值得股民參考的。
似是91-92年翻版
事有湊巧，1991年至1992年美國經濟衰退，香港則一片大好，1991年至1992年，香港樓價上升100%。當年，港英政府擔心1989年的六四事件會打擊香港經濟，於是大量投資，推出十大建設，建玫瑰園。今日，曾蔭權特首也搞十大建設，香港政府庫房水浸，今年的財政盈餘極可能超越千億元。錢多了自然會大灑金錢，公務員率先大幅加薪，然後是各行各業加薪。今年農曆新年的出外旅遊團已爆滿，生意好得不得了，旅費大幅增加，港人一樣花得起。
1991年至1992年香港通脹驚人，現在，香港通脹正在開始加劇，中國內地的通脹再加上人民幣升值已使到香港不得不面對通脹，唯一的分別是：1991年至1992年港人加薪幅度也非常大，現在則差強人意。
Johor stops Singaporeans from buying palm oil-based cooking oil
JOHOR’S Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Department has stopped Singaporeans from buying palm oil-based cooking oil, local media reported on Monday.
Officers have been deployed at Johor-Singapore Causeway and Malaysia-Singapore Second Link to check Singapore vehicles leaving the country, Enforcement Director Fahmi Kassin said.
‘We have also instructed supermarkets and shops to put up signs saying that palm oil-based, subsidised cooking oil is only for Malaysia. However, Singaporeans are allowed to buy other types of oil,’ the New Straits Times quoted Mr Fahmi as saying.
The measure was imposed after the shortage of palm oil-based cooking oil in parts of Johor state became acute on Friday.
The shortage was especially bad in rural areas and smaller sundry shops as these traders generally did not have large stocks, he said.
Checks at a supermarket and a hypermarket showed that their stocks of oil were quickly snapped up as soon as they opened for business.
Malaysian police foil attempt to smuggle cooking oil into Thailand Meanwhile, Malaysian marine police have foiled an attempt to smuggle cooking oil into Thailand with the seizure of more than 3,800 kg valued at RM10,000 (S$4,366).
The seizure was the first made by the authorities in northern state of Kelantan. A local man in his 50s was detained, Xinhua news agency reported on Monday.
Police spotted a man riding a motorcycle near the jetty in Tumpat, Kelantan on Sunday, Pengkalan Kubor marine police assistant commanding officer Wan Ismail Wan Mamat said.
‘They stopped him and found 25 boxes, each containing 17 packages of cooking oil, on him.’
‘After questioning him, the officers were taken to a store nearby where they seized 209 boxes,’ the New Straits Times quoted Mr Wan Ismail as saying.
Investigations showed the consignment was to be sent to suppliers in Thailand.
‘The cooking oil is sold in Thailand for RM3.20 per kg while it is priced at RM2.50 here,’ he said.
Malaysia is facing a cooking oil shortage crisis. Recently, the states of Kelantan, Pahang, Melaka and Kedah have been worst hit by the crisis and major supermarkets there were facing difficulty in replenishing stocks.
China asks for fair treatment of wealth funds: official
BEIJING (Reuters) - Rich nations should not discriminate against sovereign wealth funds from the developing world and must guard against protectionist sentiment, a senior Chinese official said in remarks published on Monday.
Sovereign wealth funds are a key source of global liquidity, which can help alleviate the current credit crunch, and their longer-term investment strategies help iron out market fluctuations, Wei Benhua, a senior official with China’s currency regulator, wrote in the China Business News.
The $200 billion wealth fund launched by China last year has bought stakes in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone, while taking pains to argue that it will play a benign role in global markets.
“The newly established China Investment Corp (CIC) has been grabbing global attention, and some certain countries are intentionally spreading the idea of a China threat,” said Wei, vice head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
Politicians in a number of Western countries have expressed concern that foreign governments could use sovereign wealth funds to seize stakes in strategic industries and some have called for controls on their investments.
Wealth funds, run by countries from Australia to Russia, have grown dramatically in the past decade. Worldwide, they manage about $2-3 trillion and that is on track to hit $10 trillion by 2012, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates.
“The international society should take a clear-cut stand against protectionism in various forms in both investments and the financial sector,” Wei wrote.
He said sovereign wealth funds should boost their transparency but cautioned against haste in doing so, saying this could lead to market panics.
Wei said the CIC would respect all laws in countries in which it invests and actively participate in global discussions to ensure that regulations covering sovereign wealth funds benefit its own development.
The Group of Seven (G7) in October called on the IMF to create best practice guidelines for these funds, building on existing best practices for foreign exchange reserve management.
The spreading fallout from the U.S. subprime crisis has made the task of governments managing their foreign exchange reserves all the more challenging, he said.
Taiwan Stock Index Plunges 4 Percent, Dragged Down by Electronics Shares, Wall Street's Drop
Monday January 7, 1:50 am ET
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan shares fell sharply on Monday, dragged down by weak electronics issues that tracked Friday's drop on Wall Street.
The Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange fell 337.73 points, or 4.11 percent, to 7,883.37 points, the lowest close since Dec. 20.
The electronics sector sank 6.6 percent, tracking Nasdaq's 3.8 percent decline on Friday.
In addition to fears about weakened U.S. economy, investors were also cautious ahead of Taiwan's legislative elections Saturday.
Traders said institutional investors were on the sidelines, pending the election outcome. Analysts have said a victory by the opposition Nationalist Party, which wants closer trade ties with rival China, could boost the market.
Daiwa Securities trader Harvey Chang expected a rebound on Tuesday with bargain hunting on stocks with sound fundamentals, such as LCD makers.
AU Optronics Corp. fell the daily downside limit of 7 percent to NT$54.90. MediaTek also declined 7 percent to NT$341.50, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plunged 7 percent to NT$55.8.
Toshiba 'disappointed' over Warner Bros. decision
January 6, 2008
LAS VEGAS--"Disappointed" probably isn't a strong enough word to describe when a major focus of your business plan and the highlight of your Consumer Electronics Show pitch is derailed two days before by one of your former partners.
As the most prominent backer of the HD DVD high-definition video format, Toshiba's press conference at CES this morning drew a lot of interest among the tech press, mostly out of morbid curiosity. What could it say after Warner Bros. announced Friday it would exclusively back rival Blu-ray, after the studio had played it neutral up until now?
Toshiba didn't waste any time addressing the 800-pound gorilla in the room. President and chief executive of Toshiba America's consumer division, Akio Ozaka, took the stage to lament the studio's announcement despite strong sales of HD DVD players in the last quarter of 2007.
"Unit sales of HD DVD in Q4 were the strongest yet. Therefore we were surprised by Warner Bros. announcement that it plans to abandon HD DVD later this year," said Ozaka. "We were particularly disappointed this decision was made in spite of the momentum HD DVD has gained in this market."
Toshiba vice president of marketing for digital audio and video products Jodi Salley was even more somber.
"As you can imagine, this is a tough day for me," she said as she took the stage. "I fully expected to come here this morning to share with you the successes of the last year of HD DVD, (but) the events of the last few days have shifted the focus of my comments."
Instead of announcing a fourth-generation HD DVD player as expected prior to Warner Bros. announcement on Friday, Toshiba took the opportunity to simply reaffirm its faith in the format, and point out features like Web connectivity and the presence of Ethernet ports on every player, which Blu-ray does not have.
"It is difficult to read pundits declaring HD DVD dead...but we've been declared dead before," Sally said.
Despite that sense of optimism, she didn't offer any details on what Toshiba's next move will be.
Asian stocks hit a two-week low as recession fears grow
January 7, 2008
HONG KONG: Asian stocks slumped to a two-week low on Monday, extending a poor start in 2008, after weak U.S. jobs data heightened fears of recession in the region's top export market, while bond prices rose as investors sought safety.
Oil prices, which hit a record above $100 barrel just last week, fell on concern global demand would suffer from a U.S.-led slowdown, but the dollar edged higher from a six-week low on Friday as some saw the currency as oversold.
"The sluggish jobs data is reinforcing concerns that the subprime mortgage crisis is pushing the U.S. economy towards a recession," said Kim Young-gak, an analyst at Hyundai Securities.
"Now it looks like the U.S. Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point this month."
MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan had lost 2.3 percent in afternoon trade. Earlier, the index hit its lowest since Dec. 21.
The index has dropped 3.3 percent this year, weighed down by concerns about the world's top economy.
European stocks are also forecast to fall on Monday according to financial bookmakers, with Britain's FTSE 100 seen down between 10 to 18 points and the German DAX expected 27 to 33 points lower.
Tokyo shares dropped to a 17-month low at one point, ending down 1.3 percent, after slumping 4 percent on Friday, their first trading day of the year.
Taiwan stocks shed 4.1 percent, while other markets such as Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore were down more than 2 percent each.
Exporters such as South Korean auto maker Hyundai Motor Co were hit hard after the U.S. non-farm payrolls figures showed U.S. job growth skidded to a near-halt in December and unemployment rose to a two-year high.
Declines in chip-related shares were also among the day's biggest, extending recent falls following downgrades of the sector by a couple of U.S. brokerages last week.
Japanese microchip equipment maker Tokyo Electron fell 2.8 percent, while South Korea's Samsung Electronics was down 3.7 percent. TSMC, the leading Taiwan contract chip maker, dropped 7 percent.
But bucking the trend, Chinese infrastructure-related stocks rallied following news of contracts won in the sector, with China Railway Group rising 3 percent.
Commodity-related shares, such as miners BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals, also fell on concerns a slowdown in global demand growth would dent a recent boom in prices for resources such as oil and metals.
U.S. crude futures retreated 61 cents to $97.30 a barrel, while London Brent crude eased to $96.31.
The dollar edged up to around 108.9 against the yen from a six-week low hit on Friday, but remained steady against the euro.
"The market is still adjusting its view of how a U.S. slowdown is going to affect Asia," said Gerrard Katz, head of North Asia currency trading at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.
"As long as Asian stocks are weak, fund managers are buying U.S. Treasuries and selling positions in a traditional safe-haven play."
Japanese government March bond futures hit a one-month high on Monday as fears of a U.S. recession grew and investors bet the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points during its Jan 29-30 meeting.
U.S. short-term interest rate futures jumped on Friday, pricing in as much as a 70 percent chance that the Fed would cut rates by 50 basis points
The Fed has lowered its benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points since September to 4.25 percent.
Spot gold edged down to $855.80/$856.60 as energy prices fell, but stayed within reach of a record high of $869.05 traded last week, as a weak dollar makes the precious metal cheaper in other currencies.
CES 2008: HD DVD ain't dead yet, supporters say
January 06 2008
One of the big questions at CES is how the HD DVD camp would respond to Warner Bros.' decision to throw what most thought was the decisive vote behind Blu-ray DVD. As the largest studio accounting for about 20 percent of movies, the general wisdom was that HD DVD was dead. Long live HD DVD. No more next generation DVD format war.
But the early word from companies like Toshiba, LG and Pinoeer is that the struggle ain't over.
Akio Ozaka, president and CEO of Toshiba America, made no sign the company, which has most driven the HD DVD format, is ready to give up. He said in the Toshiba press conference at CES that HD DVD is still the best format for consumers.
"We are firm in the belief that HD DVD best suits the needs and wants of consumers," he said.
That's not to say the news didn't totally blind side Toshiba. "We are surprised by Warner Bros. announcing its plans to abandon HD DVD later this year," said Ozaka. "We are particularly disappointed that this decision was made despite the momentum HD DVD has gained in the US market and other markets in 2007."
In a somewhat emotional address, Jodi Sally, vice president of marketing digital a/v at Toshiba, said the news had forced her to shift her comments Sunday, giving her a "tough day." But she was still upbeat on HD DVD players, which she said have sold more than 1 million units in North America.
Allan Jason, vice president of marketing for LG said the company will continue to make HD DVD players, like its combo Blu-ray/HD DVD player, as long as Universal and Paramount, the remaining two studios in the HD DVD camp, continue to make movies in that format. Ultimately, LG will wait until there are no more HD DVD movies, it appears.
So, while the Warner Bros. announcement has shaken the HD DVD camp, it's too early to see any white flags. It might be all over but the shouting but we'll have to wait to see when the HD DVD guys actually throws in the towel.
China Communists sacked for having too many children: state media
AFP - Monday, January 7
BEIJING (AFP) - - Authorities in a central China province have expelled hundreds of people from the Communist Party or their government posts for having more than one child, state media said Monday.
At least 93,084 people in Hubei province last year had more children than they were allowed under the policy of one per family, Xinhua news agency said quoting the provincial family planning commission.
They included 1,678 officials or party members, it added, saying about 500 had been expelled from the party and 395 stripped of their official posts.
Previous reports said the officials had also been fined.
The violators included seven national and local lawmakers or political advisors, Xinhua added.
"More party members, celebrities and well-off people are violating the policies... which has undermined social equality," commission director Yang Youwang was quoted as saying.
No information was given as to the punishments meted out to the more than 90,000 other people in Hubei who violated the "one-child" policy last year.
China's family planning policy began in the late 1970s as a way to control the world's largest population, now at 1.3 billion people.
Generally, urban families can have one child and rural families can have two if the first is a girl. About 400 million births have been averted thanks to the policy, the government has said.
But in recent years the policy has been routinely ignored in rural areas, while increasing numbers of China's urban new rich have been able to afford the requisite fines for violating the rules.
Chinese parents have traditionally favoured large families -- and sons, in particular -- to support them in their old age.
The policy has been notorious from the start for the harsh punishments and brutal methods used to enforce it, such as forced late-term abortions and the sterilisation of women.
Several areas of the poor southern province of Guangxi erupted in riots last year after officials launched a harsh crackdown to enforce the policy, with residents saying forced abortions were among the methods used by authorities.
Singapore Air Falls on Rival Bid for China Eastern (Update3)
By Irene Shen
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore Airlines Ltd., bidding to buy a stake in China Eastern Airlines Corp., fell to the lowest in 10 months in the city-state after Air China Ltd.'s parent pledged to block the deal with a higher offer.
The Singaporean carrier dropped 2.6 percent to S$16.52, the lowest since March 7. China National Aviation Holding Co. has said it will submit a bid should China Eastern shareholders reject a plan to sell a 24 percent stake to Singapore Air and parent Temasek Holdings Pte tomorrow.
Losing the bid would hamper Singapore Air's plans to tap demand in China, where air travel may grow fivefold by 2025. A tie-up with China Eastern would give Air China a base in Shanghai, China's commercial capital, and a dominant position in the world's second-largest air market.
``It makes commercial sense for Air China's parent to compete for a foothold in Shanghai,'' said Li Jun, an analyst at Everbright Securities Co. in Shanghai. ``Air China needs to clear this obstacle to realize its dream of consolidating the nation's airlines.''
China Eastern fell 3.8 percent to HK$6.66 at the close of trading in Hong Kong and was unchanged at 20.63 yuan in Shanghai. Air China declined 2.6 percent to HK$10.52 in Hong Kong and dropped 1 percent to 28.89 yuan in Shanghai.
Government Regulation
China's government sanctioned Singapore Air buying a stake in China Eastern to improve the carrier's performance. In September, Air China's parent and affiliate Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. abandoned a plan to make a counter-bid. Since then, Air China's former chairman, Li Jiaxiang, has been named the head of the aviation regulator.
China Eastern, Air China and China Southern Airlines Co., the nation's three biggest carriers, are all ultimately controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, or SASAC, an arm of the State Council, China's cabinet.
``The Singapore Air deal is set to be rejected on Jan. 8,'' Ally Ma, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. wrote in a report today. ``The political uncertainty has been cleared.''
China National Aviation owns about 10 percent of China Eastern's minority shares. Opposition from one-third of minority shareholders will block the deal.
Ma said China National has won support from investors including Barclays Plc and UBS AG to veto the deal. China National Aviation and its supporters hold a total of 55.2 percent of China Eastern's Hong Kong shares, Ma said.
Clare Williams, a Hong Kong-based spokeswoman for Barclays Capital, and Mark Panday, a Hong Kong-based spokesman for UBS, declined to comment today.
Counter-Bid
China National Aviation yesterday said it would offer at least HK$5 a share for a stake in China Eastern if shareholders veto the Singapore Airlines deal. Singapore Airlines and parent Temasek agreed to buy a 24 percent stake in Shanghai-based China Eastern for HK$3.80 per share last year.
``It's a bargain of power and interest,'' said Jack Xu, an analyst at Sinopac Securities Co. in Shanghai. ``If China Eastern fails to sell shares to Singapore Airlines, another round of speculation on domestic consolidation will start.''
A stake in the largest carrier in Shanghai would give Singapore Air guaranteed access to the second-busiest hub in the world's fastest growing aviation market.
Shanghai Hub
``The strategic partnership proposed by China Eastern, Singapore Airlines and Temasek is a long-term one. It is not a financial trade,'' said Singapore Air spokesman Stephen Forshaw. ``Its approval by CEA minority shareholders this week will, in our view, be positive for the prospects of China Eastern's share prices.''
China Eastern is aiming to expand its local market share to more than 50 percent from the current 40 percent, Chairman Li Fenghua said on Sept. 2. That compares with Air China's 15 percent in the Shanghai market.
Shanghai handled a record 51.6 million air passengers in 2007, up 11.8 percent from a year earlier. Seventy-one carriers are operating routes connecting the city with 179 cities worldwide.
Feldstein Says Recession Odds More Than 50% on Jobs (Update2)
By Steve Matthews
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, head of the group that dates U.S. economic cycles, said the odds of a recession have risen to more than 50 percent after a report showing unemployment jumped in December.
``We are now talking about more likely than not,'' Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in an interview in New Orleans two days ago. ``I have been saying about 50 percent. This now pushes it up a bit above that.''
The jobless rate rose to 5 percent in December, the highest in two years, from 4.7 percent in November, a government report showed last week. Payrolls rose by 18,000, the least since August 2003.
The U.S. economic expansion is cooling after a third- quarter surge as the housing slump enters its third year and consumer spending slows. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and ex-Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers are among those raising the prospect of a recession.
The increase in unemployment will hurt consumer confidence, Feldstein said in the interview. He was in New Orleans to speak at an economics panel discussion on productivity that was part of the annual meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations.
``Consumers, with essentially no growth in jobs in December, are going to be more nervous about the future,'' said Feldstein, 68. ``They are going to be a little more reluctant to spend, and that is going to put a further drag on growth in 2008.''
Growth to Slow
The U.S. economy, the world's largest, grew at a 1 percent pace in the fourth quarter after expanding at a 4.9 percent rate the previous three months, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month. Growth for all of 2008 is projected at 2.3 percent.
The economy is heading for ``one of the worst recessions we've had in a while,'' investor Jim Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview today from Singapore. He said investors should sell the dollar as global currencies weaken.
The Federal Reserve has cut its main interest rate three times since Sept. 18, to 4.25 percent from 5.25 percent. The next meeting is on Jan. 29-30.
``They have to keep lowering rates,'' Feldstein said. A reduction of half a percentage point in the federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight loans, would ``not be a bad thing at this point.''
Fiscal Stimulus
Rate cuts alone may not be enough to keep the economy growing, Feldstein said. He said Congress may have to cut taxes to stoke consumer spending and restore confidence.
``I am not sure that reduction in rates is going to have as much traction as it did in the past because so much of the problems now are problems of confidence in the financial sector and of bank capital,'' he said. ``So that is why I have been saying we need some kind of a fiscal stimulus.''
Housing starts fell 3.7 percent in November from October and were 48 percent below their January 2006 peak, according to a Commerce Department report last month.
``Housing starts have collapsed, so you have low construction, low household wealth and that is now beginning to accumulate and to shift over into reductions in the growth of employment and therefore in the growth of incomes,'' Feldstein said.
`Nowhere Near' Recession
The bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee isn't close to meeting to decide whether a recession has started, said Robert Hall, an economist at Stanford University who leads the panel.
``The committee operates retrospectively,'' Hall said in an e-mail response to a question about the committee's plans. ``As a general matter, we don't meet until it is reasonably clear that a downturn has occurred,'' he said. ``We are nowhere near that point today.''
Economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. say more evidence is needed before they can say whether the U.S. economy is contracting.
``Recession talk seems premature,'' said Lehman Chief Global Fixed-Income Strategist Jack Malvey and Chief U.S. Economist Ethan Harris in a note. ``Confirmation still requires additional data, in particular December retail sales, out in mid-January.''
At the same time, ``odds of outright recession certainly have increased'' and a ```recession spell' at some juncture over the next two years should hardly surprise markets,'' they said.
Feldstein has headed the NBER, which like Harvard is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, since 1984. He also served in the post from 1977 to 1982. Feldstein plans to step down from the NBER in June to conduct more research on his own, his assistant, Norma McEvoy, said in September.
Rogers Says U.S. to Have Worst Recession `in a While' (Update2)
By Saijel Kishan and Mark Barton
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy is heading for a recession that may be the worst ``in a while'' and investors should sell the dollar as global currencies weaken, investor Jim Rogers said.
``It's going to be one of the worst recessions we've had in a while because we had so many excesses going into it,'' Rogers, chairman of New York-based Rogers Holdings, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today from Singapore. ``It's going to be bad for all of us as currencies come under more and more stress and we have more inflation in the world.''
The U.S. and U.K. governments have been ``lying'' about inflation, Rogers said, adding that he's selling their respective currencies.
The dollar dropped for a second straight year in 2007, falling 8.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis as the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times. Rising energy and food prices have pushed up inflation in Europe.
``I hope by the end of this year all of my assets will be out of the U.S. dollar,'' Rogers said. ``The dollar is a currency that's terribly flawed and it's going to be under duress for many years to come.''
Rogers said in a Nov. 15 interview that investors should sell the dollar and that he expects to be rid of all his U.S. currency assets this year. He reiterated today that he's also buying the Chinese yuan and the Swiss franc as other currencies weaken.
Agricultural Commodities
Rogers, who has been a commodity bull since 1999, said that agriculture may be the best investment among commodities in the event of a world recession.
``If you're worried about a recession, you might think about buying agricultural commodities,'' Rogers said. ``I suspect agriculture is going to do well no matter what happens to the world economy.''
Cotton, coffee and sugar may gain the most, he said, adding that he wouldn't buy crude oil after prices rose above $100 a barrel last week, or industrial metals such as tin or lead because a slowing U.S. economy would curb demand.
Commodities are in their seventh year of gains because of a lack of investment in production capacity and rising demand from expanding economies in Asia. They have also gained as the U.S. dollar fell, making resources such as oil and wheat, which are denominated in the U.S. currency, cheaper for foreign buyers.
Rogers said commodities will gain even if the dollar declines, because of supply shortages.
``All commodities are going to be in much shorter supply for another decade,'' he said. ``So even if the dollar goes up, commodities are going to go higher.''
北京检验检疫局在一架美联航客机客舱内发现活鼠
2008年01月07日 20:42 来源：中国新闻网
中新社北京一月七日电(记者 刘长忠)中国国家质检总局今天披露，北京口岸一月六日在一架来自美国华盛顿的国际航班上发现活鼠，目前已捕获藏匿的活鼠及死鼠共八只。
一月六日下午十五时零八分，北京检验检疫局所属首都机场检验检疫局航检处接到来自美联合航空公司的电话，报告其在由华盛顿飞抵北京首都国际机场的UA897航班上发现活鼠。
该航班于十四时二十五分降落，下客后由清洁工人打扫客舱内卫生，在更换枕套时，发现枕芯上有破洞，随即发现枕芯内有活老鼠，并在清理座位时又发现死鼠一只。接到报告后，检验检疫工作人员高度重视，立即赶往现场，将发现的死鼠及藏匿活鼠的枕芯予以密封，并在对机舱内的枕芯进行一一检查后，又捕获藏匿的活鼠五只。
为防备机上可能再有鼠存在的情况，检验检疫工作人员在立即启动口岸突发公共卫生事件应急处理预案，通知首都机场运行监控指挥中心(TAMCC)将飞机拖至远机位的同时，又在鼠可能活动的客舱、驾驶舱、货舱等处放置鼠夹三十九个，粘鼠板一百张，粉板三十八个，并在检查了航班上所有的枕头及毛毯，确认没有老鼠藏匿后，封闭飞机客舱及货舱门进行集中捕捉。一月七日，在检验检疫工作人员再次打开舱门后发现，在客舱门及驾驶舱布放的粘鼠板上又发现二只鼠。至此，在该飞机上已发现八只鼠。
据中国检验检疫专家称，鼠类是重要的医学媒介生物，可传播鼠疫、流行性出血热、班疹伤寒等三十五种以上疾病。鼠类可以直接或通过体外寄生虫把疾病传播给人类。同时，鼠一旦咬坏飞机上的线路还会对飞机安全造成影响，严重的甚至机毁人亡。尤其是在同一飞机的驾驶舱和客舱内发现如此之多鼠类是非常罕见的。
按照中国国家质检总局要求，北京检验检疫局已成立应急小组，并在对该飞机实施除鼠等卫生处理措施的同时，将捕获的鼠送至实验室进行病原体检测。
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