Taiwan’s Chen resigns as party chairman after legislative election rout
TAIPEI, Taiwan - Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party Saturday, in the wake of the party’s landslide defeat in legislative elections.
“I should shoulder all responsibilities,” Chen said. “I am resigning now as DPP chairman. I feel really apologetic and shamed.”
Opposition scores big win in Taiwan legislative elections
TAIPEI, Taiwan - Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party scored a landslide victory in legislative elections Saturday, dealing a stinging blow to the government’s hard-line China policies just two months before a crucial presidential poll.
The results were a clear humiliation for President Chen Shui-bian, who has been criticized for aggravating relations with Beijing by promoting policies to formalize Taiwan’s de facto independence from China. Critics say that has allowed the island’s once-vibrant economy to lose competitiveness, and has ratcheted up tension in the perennially edgy Taiwan Strait.
The March 22 presidential election to chose a successor to Chen, who must step down after eight years in office, pits Frank Hsieh of Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party against the Nationalists’ Ma Ying-jeou. Recent opinion polls give Ma a 20-point lead.
The Nationalists favour more active engagement with China and do not rule out eventual unification. The DPP wants to make official the independence Taiwan has had since a civil war nearly 60 years ago, but has held back due to fears that Beijing would make good on its repeated threats to attack.
With most votes counted, TV station San Li projected the Nationalists would win 82 seats in the 113-seat legislature, against only 27 for the DPP, with four going to independents. In Taiwan’s bitterly partisan media environment, San Li is a strong DPP supporter.
The legislature was halved in size, from 225 seats, under electoral reforms approved by voters in 2005. Even so, on a proportional basis the DPP’s showing and that of the allied Taiwan Solidarity Union were the parties’ worst performance in an island-wide election since 2001.
If the Nationalists go on to recapture the presidency, they will be in a strong position to end years of deadlock between Taiwan’s legislative and executive branches, and to stabilize the island’s rocky relations with China.
Taiwan specialist Shelley Rigger of North Carolina’s Davidson College said it was still possible for Hsieh to win the presidency - but only if he distances himself from Chen, whose approval rating has plummeted amid a series of debilitating corruption scandals and a sputtering economy.
“Hsieh needs to pull himself out of the shadow of Chen Shui-bian and run his own campaign,” Rigger said. “He needs to convince people that he is different from the rest of the party.”
During Chen’s two terms as president, the Nationalists used a slender legislative majority to block many of his policy initiatives, including the purchase of a multibillion-dollar (euro) package of U.S. weapons. Also left stagnating have been negotiations to open direct air and shipping routes between Taiwan and China.
Ma took a high-profile role in the legislative campaign, pressing home his message that Chen’s reluctance to engage China inflamed tensions with Beijing and hurt the island’s economy - one of the 20 largest in the world. Taiwan is also a major research and manufacturing base for the computer industry.
Ma also drew attention to American unhappiness with Chen’s China policies. Twenty-nine years after it shifted recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the U.S. remains Taiwan’s most important foreign partner, supplying it with the means to defend itself against any future Chinese attack.
But Washington has made it clear it finds Chen’s China policies dangerous and provocative - particularly a planned referendum on Taiwanese membership in the United Nations, which appears designed to underscore the island’s political separateness from the mainland.
In contrast to Ma, Hsieh maintained a relatively low profile in the legislative campaign, apparently because of his ambivalence over Chen’s pro-independence stance.
Hsieh hews to the DPP’s pro-independence line in principle, but has made it clear he rejects some of Chen’s hard-line policies, including his moves to limit Taiwanese economic ties to the mainland.
He has come out in favour of ditching Chen’s across-the-board requirement that Taiwanese companies limit their investments in China to less 40 percent of their asset value. He has also indicated a willingness to expand direct charter flights across the Taiwan Strait.
Ma and the Nationalists go considerably further. They want to remove the asset requirement altogether, and sanction scheduled flights between China and Taiwan.
Recent polling shows the importance of economic issues for Taiwanese voters.
A December survey carried out by Taipei-based CommonWealth Magazine put Taiwan’s economic dissatisfaction level at 72 percent, with a majority of the 1,090 respondents - 52 percent - convinced that the island’s economy is regressing.
The telephone survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
TAIPEI - Taiwan’s main opposition Nationalist Party thrashed the ruling DPP in legislative elections on Saturday, strengthening its bid to recapture the presidency in March and heralding better relations with China.
With all the votes counted, the KMT had won 81 seats in the 113-member parliament, or 72 percent, according to the Central Election Commission. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party won just 27 seats, or 24 percent, the rest going to other parties.
Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s president since 2000, resigned as DPP chairman when the magnitude of his party’s loss became clear, saying he should take responsibility for its defeat.
The KMT and its allied People First Party had previously held 49 percent of the seats in the larger 225-seat legislature, while the DPP and its allies held about 42 percent.
Many voters blame the DPP for allowing Taiwan’s economy to languish under Chen.
Chen’s family members and closest aides have also been embroiled in a series of scandals over the past year, plunging the party into its worst crisis since it was founded in 1986.
“This is the biggest failure since the founding of the DPP and as chairman I should take responsibility,” Chen said. “I should shoulder the biggest responsibility ... We will have even bigger challenges ahead,” he added, referring to the presidential election in March.
The KMT won its landslide victory “because Taiwanese people have used their wisdom to vote against corruption and incompetence in the government,” said Tsai Chin-lung, who won a seat in Taichung for the party. “Taiwanese people are really outraged with what the government is doing,” he said.
The result shows that the people of Taiwan want change, said Chao Chien-min, professor at National Chengchi University. “The second thing is the economy: Chen Shui-bian doesn’t understand the economy. He always thinks it’s OK just to be political.”
WAGES, PRICES, JOBS
The newly elected parliament will be half the size of its predecessor, which had 225 seats, to boost efficiency and the accountability of each legislator.
The DPP acknowledged early on that it could not win control of the new chamber, but had been aiming to win 50 seats.
Stagnant wages, rising prices and jobs were among the major issues in the legislative election, whose result could augur well for KMT presidential nominee Ma Ying-jeou, due to face the DPP’s Frank Hsieh in the March 22 presidential poll.
Voters also faced two single-issue ballots, but many snubbed them as too partisan.
One asked whether the KMT should return any improperly acquired assets to the government, and the other asked whether parliament should investigate allegations of high-level corruption among government officials.
Each measure needed the support of half the registered electorate to be valid, but neither came close to the threshold.
Voters in March will be presented with a more contentious DPP-sponsored referendum asking Taiwanese whether Taiwan should try to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan. The United States and others have criticised the initiative as an attempt to upset the status quo between Taiwan and China.
The KMT, which once ruled all of China, favours closer economic ties and more dialogue with Beijing after eight stormy years of rule by the independence-leaning DPP.
China and Taiwan have been ruled separately since defeated KMT forces fled to the island at the end of the civil war in 1949. Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan back under its rule, by force if necessary.
KMT must ride momentum to retake Taiwan presidency
TAIPEI - A landslide victory in Taiwan’s legislative polls gave the opposition Kuomintang a fresh mandate to control parliament, but it needs to ride that momentum to retake the presidency in March, newspapers said on Sunday.
While KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou is frontrunner for the March presidential election, the party that once governed the whole of China must act quickly to capitalise on Saturday’s trouncing of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party .
“The Kuomintang’s landslide victory cannot be translated into a sure win for Ma in that race,” the China Post said in an editorial.
“The ruling party will be trying to lick its wounds after such a heavy loss in yesterday’s election, hoping for a pendulum effect to help them to beat the Kuomintang a little more than two months from now,” the English-language paper said.
The KMT, or Nationalist Party, won 72 percent of the vote on Saturday, taking 81 seats in the newly streamlined 113-member chamber.
This sweeping victory strengthens its bid to regain the presidency after eight years of Chen Shui-bian, the pro-independence leader who must step down this year. A KMT presidency would herald better relations with China as the party favours closer economic ties and more dialogue with Beijing.
There was no immediate official comment from China after Saturday’s elections. Beijing insists Taiwan is a breakaway province which must return to mainland rule, and has threatened to use force to prevent a formal move towards independence.
A combination of Taiwan’s lacklustre economic performance and a string of scandals plaguing the DPP helped boost the KMT vote on Saturday, but the China Times newspaper urged the Nationalists not to be complacent.
“The Taiwan people used their votes to teach the DPP a lesson and also give the KMT a chance,” the Chinese-language China Times said, adding that the KMT should be humble while the DPP should reflect on its record.
While the DPP won just 27 seats, or 24 percent, the rest going to smaller groups, analysts said it was too early to write off the party completely.
DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh vowed on Sunday to do his best to win the March elections.
“One party dominating three quarters of the parliament is not conducive to Taiwan democracy,” he told reporters.
Analysts said Hsieh was likely to take over as party chairman after President Chen resigned to take responsibility for Saturday’s loss. Chen left Taiwan on Sunday on a visit to diplomatic allies Guatemala and Saint Lucia.
The newly elected parliament has been cut to half the size of its predecessor, which had 225 seats, in an effort to reduce corruption and boost efficiency.
As is standard, the cabinet led by Premier Chang Chun-hsiung will resign en masse on January 28 before the new legislature convenes at the beginning of February.
Taiwan’s political separation from the Chinese mainland dates back to the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when Mao Zedong’s Communist armies swept to victory and the defeated Kuomintang set up their rival government on the island.
TAIPEI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The resounding win by Taiwan's China-friendly Nationalist Party (KMT) in Saturday's legislative elections should boost the local stock market, as investors look forward to a reduction in cross-strait tensions, analysts said.
The flow of funds into stocks could draw money out of the bond market in the short term, while the Taiwan dollar will likely be supported if stocks rise from the vote, seen by many as a call for change from Taiwan's electorate, according to other analysts in those markets.
On Friday, the main TAIEX stock index fell 0.35 percent, while the Taiwan dollar ended T$0.021 stronger at T$32.466 to the U.S. dollar.
With all the votes counted, the main opposition KMT picked up 81 seats in the 113 member parliament, or 72 percent. Its chief rival, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), picked up just 27 seats, or 24 percent.
The KMT, which once ruled all of China, favours closer economic ties and more dialogue with Beijing leaders after eight stormy years of rule by the independence-leaning DPP under President Chen Shui-bian.
"The KMT's win will start to get people looking forward to a win by the party in the March presidential election," said Kevin Lin, vice president at Marbo Securities Consulting. "This should help promote an easing of cross-strait relations."
But he added the stock market will be limited in the near term due to a recent run-up, added with a sell-off on Wall Street -- from which Taiwan often takes its cues -- on Friday.
Beyond Asset Management Managing Director Michael On said stocks could initially rise when trading begins on Monday, but will probably fall after that.
"The election's influence should be relatively short term, and the stock market will eventually reflect the environment," On said.
The flow of money into stocks could put short-term pressure on the bond market, pushing yields up, said Ernest Lee, fixed income manager at Mega Securities.
"The stock market celebration could be one or two days," he said. "Financial markets will have the same view on the economy's broader future." The Taiwan dollar should be well supported as it had been tracking the domestic stock market over the past month, dealers said.
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Taiwan’s Chen resigns as party chairman after legislative election rout
TAIPEI, Taiwan - Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party Saturday, in the wake of the party’s landslide defeat in legislative elections.
“I should shoulder all responsibilities,” Chen said. “I am resigning now as DPP chairman. I feel really apologetic and shamed.”
Opposition scores big win in Taiwan legislative elections
TAIPEI, Taiwan - Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party scored a landslide victory in legislative elections Saturday, dealing a stinging blow to the government’s hard-line China policies just two months before a crucial presidential poll.
The results were a clear humiliation for President Chen Shui-bian, who has been criticized for aggravating relations with Beijing by promoting policies to formalize Taiwan’s de facto independence from China. Critics say that has allowed the island’s once-vibrant economy to lose competitiveness, and has ratcheted up tension in the perennially edgy Taiwan Strait.
The March 22 presidential election to chose a successor to Chen, who must step down after eight years in office, pits Frank Hsieh of Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party against the Nationalists’ Ma Ying-jeou. Recent opinion polls give Ma a 20-point lead.
The Nationalists favour more active engagement with China and do not rule out eventual unification. The DPP wants to make official the independence Taiwan has had since a civil war nearly 60 years ago, but has held back due to fears that Beijing would make good on its repeated threats to attack.
With most votes counted, TV station San Li projected the Nationalists would win 82 seats in the 113-seat legislature, against only 27 for the DPP, with four going to independents. In Taiwan’s bitterly partisan media environment, San Li is a strong DPP supporter.
The legislature was halved in size, from 225 seats, under electoral reforms approved by voters in 2005. Even so, on a proportional basis the DPP’s showing and that of the allied Taiwan Solidarity Union were the parties’ worst performance in an island-wide election since 2001.
If the Nationalists go on to recapture the presidency, they will be in a strong position to end years of deadlock between Taiwan’s legislative and executive branches, and to stabilize the island’s rocky relations with China.
Taiwan specialist Shelley Rigger of North Carolina’s Davidson College said it was still possible for Hsieh to win the presidency - but only if he distances himself from Chen, whose approval rating has plummeted amid a series of debilitating corruption scandals and a sputtering economy.
“Hsieh needs to pull himself out of the shadow of Chen Shui-bian and run his own campaign,” Rigger said. “He needs to convince people that he is different from the rest of the party.”
During Chen’s two terms as president, the Nationalists used a slender legislative majority to block many of his policy initiatives, including the purchase of a multibillion-dollar (euro) package of U.S. weapons. Also left stagnating have been negotiations to open direct air and shipping routes between Taiwan and China.
Ma took a high-profile role in the legislative campaign, pressing home his message that Chen’s reluctance to engage China inflamed tensions with Beijing and hurt the island’s economy - one of the 20 largest in the world. Taiwan is also a major research and manufacturing base for the computer industry.
Ma also drew attention to American unhappiness with Chen’s China policies. Twenty-nine years after it shifted recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the U.S. remains Taiwan’s most important foreign partner, supplying it with the means to defend itself against any future Chinese attack.
But Washington has made it clear it finds Chen’s China policies dangerous and provocative - particularly a planned referendum on Taiwanese membership in the United Nations, which appears designed to underscore the island’s political separateness from the mainland.
In contrast to Ma, Hsieh maintained a relatively low profile in the legislative campaign, apparently because of his ambivalence over Chen’s pro-independence stance.
Hsieh hews to the DPP’s pro-independence line in principle, but has made it clear he rejects some of Chen’s hard-line policies, including his moves to limit Taiwanese economic ties to the mainland.
He has come out in favour of ditching Chen’s across-the-board requirement that Taiwanese companies limit their investments in China to less 40 percent of their asset value. He has also indicated a willingness to expand direct charter flights across the Taiwan Strait.
Ma and the Nationalists go considerably further. They want to remove the asset requirement altogether, and sanction scheduled flights between China and Taiwan.
Recent polling shows the importance of economic issues for Taiwanese voters.
A December survey carried out by Taipei-based CommonWealth Magazine put Taiwan’s economic dissatisfaction level at 72 percent, with a majority of the 1,090 respondents - 52 percent - convinced that the island’s economy is regressing.
The telephone survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Taiwan’s KMT trounces DPP in legislature poll
TAIPEI - Taiwan’s main opposition Nationalist Party thrashed the ruling DPP in legislative elections on Saturday, strengthening its bid to recapture the presidency in March and heralding better relations with China.
With all the votes counted, the KMT had won 81 seats in the 113-member parliament, or 72 percent, according to the Central Election Commission. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party won just 27 seats, or 24 percent, the rest going to other parties.
Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s president since 2000, resigned as DPP chairman when the magnitude of his party’s loss became clear, saying he should take responsibility for its defeat.
The KMT and its allied People First Party had previously held 49 percent of the seats in the larger 225-seat legislature, while the DPP and its allies held about 42 percent.
Many voters blame the DPP for allowing Taiwan’s economy to languish under Chen.
Chen’s family members and closest aides have also been embroiled in a series of scandals over the past year, plunging the party into its worst crisis since it was founded in 1986.
“This is the biggest failure since the founding of the DPP and as chairman I should take responsibility,” Chen said. “I should shoulder the biggest responsibility ... We will have even bigger challenges ahead,” he added, referring to the presidential election in March.
The KMT won its landslide victory “because Taiwanese people have used their wisdom to vote against corruption and incompetence in the government,” said Tsai Chin-lung, who won a seat in Taichung for the party. “Taiwanese people are really outraged with what the government is doing,” he said.
The result shows that the people of Taiwan want change, said Chao Chien-min, professor at National Chengchi University. “The second thing is the economy: Chen Shui-bian doesn’t understand the economy. He always thinks it’s OK just to be political.”
WAGES, PRICES, JOBS
The newly elected parliament will be half the size of its predecessor, which had 225 seats, to boost efficiency and the accountability of each legislator.
The DPP acknowledged early on that it could not win control of the new chamber, but had been aiming to win 50 seats.
Stagnant wages, rising prices and jobs were among the major issues in the legislative election, whose result could augur well for KMT presidential nominee Ma Ying-jeou, due to face the DPP’s Frank Hsieh in the March 22 presidential poll.
Voters also faced two single-issue ballots, but many snubbed them as too partisan.
One asked whether the KMT should return any improperly acquired assets to the government, and the other asked whether parliament should investigate allegations of high-level corruption among government officials.
Each measure needed the support of half the registered electorate to be valid, but neither came close to the threshold.
Voters in March will be presented with a more contentious DPP-sponsored referendum asking Taiwanese whether Taiwan should try to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan. The United States and others have criticised the initiative as an attempt to upset the status quo between Taiwan and China.
The KMT, which once ruled all of China, favours closer economic ties and more dialogue with Beijing after eight stormy years of rule by the independence-leaning DPP.
China and Taiwan have been ruled separately since defeated KMT forces fled to the island at the end of the civil war in 1949. Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan back under its rule, by force if necessary.
蒋经国的历史资产
胡忠信（2008-01-09）
2008年1月13日是蒋经国逝世20周年，适逢台湾正在进行有史以来最激烈的立委、总统大选。政治板块的消长，没有人有绝对的把握可以加以预测。
然而，承续蒋经国政治命脉的中国国民党，以及蒋经国容许开放党禁而成立的民进党，正在进行一场“输者即走入历史”的决战，两党都走不出蒋经国的阴影。有趣的对照是，蒋介石、蒋经国早已退出政坛，“去蒋化”竟然是选举的攻防主轴之一。光由此点就可看出，蒋经国历史资产的影响力。
和解历程遥遥无期
判断一个政治人物，往往是以他退场的方式作为依据。日本传统戏剧所强调的“花道”，男女主角必须优雅地退出舞台，完全适用于政治层面。蒋经国的身世与经历极其复杂，他是蒋介石的儿子，却留学俄国成为共产党员，与父亲划清界线，回中国后成为蒋介石极力予以培养的接班人。“赣南经验”使蒋经国初试啼声，国共内战上海“打老虎”铩羽而归。
蒋经国真正展现实力的舞台不是大陆，却是台湾，50年代掌握情治、政工系统，60年代进入军事体系，70年代成为行政院长主张“革新保台”，1978年成为总统，十年以后死于任上。正如金字塔旁的人面狮身像，蒋经国就是一个谜团，无法用最简单的概念加以解读。
1950年代国府退守台湾，美苏冷战进入高峰期，台湾的戒严体制进入肃杀阶段，“白色恐怖”的责任都被算到蒋经国头上，“特务头子”是蒋经国被台湾民间敌视的最主要因素，50岁以上的台湾知识分子对这段历史仍然记忆深刻。民进党内的基本教义派对蒋氏父子的高压统治永远无法释怀，其情况与西班牙法西斯独裁者佛朗哥的状况没有两样。
西班牙最近通过“历史记忆法”，重新省视佛朗哥的统治，有其历史经验与创痛。南非在民主化以后成立“真相与和解委员会”，由图图大主教主持调查与赔偿、和解历程。台湾并没有经过心灵的洗濯，以致“去蒋化”仍然成为目前政争的主题。
顺应潮流走上民主之路
尽管蒋经国的政治统治备受争论，但正如台湾历代统治者，如清代的刘铭传与日治时代的后藤新平，他在1970年代行政院长任上推动的“十大建设”，却成为台湾塑造经济奇迹的主要动力，其后台湾中小企业走遍全世界，成为“日不落台商”，电子产业成为出口主力，蒋经国的视野与魄力不容抹杀。
尤其蒋经国一手拉拔尹仲容、李国鼎、孙运璿等外省官僚成为财经火车头，又透过“吹台青政策”拉拔本土政治精英。李登辉说他是“经国学校”出身，与日本战后吉田茂的“吉田学校”相互辉映。蒋经国的“本土化”栽培了新一代行政官僚，台湾快速由农村经济转型成资讯经济。如果没有他的推动，很难想象是否能如此快速而稳当。
中产阶级形成，必然提出参政的要求，这也是蒋经国必须面对的民主化问题。从1975年台湾政论事件、1977年中坜事件、1978年美丽岛问政运动，民主化从小而大，铺天盖地而来，蒋经国先采取镇压，最后只能默认，甚至开放党禁、报禁，1987年不得不宣布解严。
蒋经国死前提出一连串民主议题，深知大江东流挡不住，他必须站在正确历史的一边，必须在乎历史的评价，而不能只在乎一时权力的掌握。国民党在蒋经国手中，也由刚性威权政党转型成柔性威权政党，甚至为变成民主政党做了思想准备。
以民生经济为优先
蒋经国深受中国传统教育薰陶，受到“五四运动”爱国主义鼓舞，因缘际会加入了俄国共产党，体验了斯大林的统治，学习了俄国知识分子民粹党的走入基层。中年以后，他与美国人打交道，置身于美式民主的情境，最后选择了自由、民主、人权的核心价值，扬弃了法西斯或共产主义，这是蒋经国传奇一生的奇遇。尤其面对台湾本土化、民主化浪潮，他顺应潮流而非撄其锋，顺风转舵留下历史地位，这是智慧的抉择。
新加坡内阁资政李光耀以前经常赴台访问，与蒋经国成为好友，两人连袂赴乡间参访。有一次，李光耀以流利的福建话（闽南话）与民间人士对谈，蒋经国看到此景感慨万千。客家人李光耀为了做好领导者学会福建话，蒋经国却只能讲一口浙江国语。他在临终前曾公开说“我也是台湾人”，与李光耀所给予的精神震撼有关。蒋经国选择了做台湾人，20年后的台湾人又如何接纳蒋经国？
20世纪的中国历史显示，袁世凯、蒋介石、毛泽东、邓小平无不以强人身份崛起，始终无法跳脱武力的历史循环。蒋经国在台湾却选择了完全不同的历史进程，在政治民主、市场经济、公民社会的冲撞转折期，宁愿回归到政治生活的基本面，以民生经济作为优先考量。他重新塑造自己，为自己争取到新的评价。台湾最早成为民主化的华人地区，与蒋经国的抉择、意志自然有因果关系。
历史是永无休止的争论，历史也是现在与过去之间无休止的对话，蒋经国的历史资产仍在发酵。虽然他过世已20年，但仍然值得我们深思、反省、辩论。
·作者是台湾资深时事评论员
KMT must ride momentum to retake Taiwan presidency
TAIPEI - A landslide victory in Taiwan’s legislative polls gave the opposition Kuomintang a fresh mandate to control parliament, but it needs to ride that momentum to retake the presidency in March, newspapers said on Sunday.
While KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou is frontrunner for the March presidential election, the party that once governed the whole of China must act quickly to capitalise on Saturday’s trouncing of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party .
“The Kuomintang’s landslide victory cannot be translated into a sure win for Ma in that race,” the China Post said in an editorial.
“The ruling party will be trying to lick its wounds after such a heavy loss in yesterday’s election, hoping for a pendulum effect to help them to beat the Kuomintang a little more than two months from now,” the English-language paper said.
The KMT, or Nationalist Party, won 72 percent of the vote on Saturday, taking 81 seats in the newly streamlined 113-member chamber.
This sweeping victory strengthens its bid to regain the presidency after eight years of Chen Shui-bian, the pro-independence leader who must step down this year. A KMT presidency would herald better relations with China as the party favours closer economic ties and more dialogue with Beijing.
There was no immediate official comment from China after Saturday’s elections. Beijing insists Taiwan is a breakaway province which must return to mainland rule, and has threatened to use force to prevent a formal move towards independence.
A combination of Taiwan’s lacklustre economic performance and a string of scandals plaguing the DPP helped boost the KMT vote on Saturday, but the China Times newspaper urged the Nationalists not to be complacent.
“The Taiwan people used their votes to teach the DPP a lesson and also give the KMT a chance,” the Chinese-language China Times said, adding that the KMT should be humble while the DPP should reflect on its record.
While the DPP won just 27 seats, or 24 percent, the rest going to smaller groups, analysts said it was too early to write off the party completely.
DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh vowed on Sunday to do his best to win the March elections.
“One party dominating three quarters of the parliament is not conducive to Taiwan democracy,” he told reporters.
Analysts said Hsieh was likely to take over as party chairman after President Chen resigned to take responsibility for Saturday’s loss. Chen left Taiwan on Sunday on a visit to diplomatic allies Guatemala and Saint Lucia.
The newly elected parliament has been cut to half the size of its predecessor, which had 225 seats, in an effort to reduce corruption and boost efficiency.
As is standard, the cabinet led by Premier Chang Chun-hsiung will resign en masse on January 28 before the new legislature convenes at the beginning of February.
Taiwan’s political separation from the Chinese mainland dates back to the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when Mao Zedong’s Communist armies swept to victory and the defeated Kuomintang set up their rival government on the island.
TAIPEI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The resounding win by Taiwan's China-friendly Nationalist Party (KMT) in Saturday's legislative elections should boost the local stock market, as investors look forward to a reduction in cross-strait tensions, analysts said.
The flow of funds into stocks could draw money out of the bond market in the short term, while the Taiwan dollar will likely be supported if stocks rise from the vote, seen by many as a call for change from Taiwan's electorate, according to other analysts in those markets.
On Friday, the main TAIEX stock index fell 0.35 percent, while the Taiwan dollar ended T$0.021 stronger at T$32.466 to the U.S. dollar.
With all the votes counted, the main opposition KMT picked up 81 seats in the 113 member parliament, or 72 percent. Its chief rival, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), picked up just 27 seats, or 24 percent.
The KMT, which once ruled all of China, favours closer economic ties and more dialogue with Beijing leaders after eight stormy years of rule by the independence-leaning DPP under President Chen Shui-bian.
"The KMT's win will start to get people looking forward to a win by the party in the March presidential election," said Kevin Lin, vice president at Marbo Securities Consulting. "This should help promote an easing of cross-strait relations."
But he added the stock market will be limited in the near term due to a recent run-up, added with a sell-off on Wall Street -- from which Taiwan often takes its cues -- on Friday.
Beyond Asset Management Managing Director Michael On said stocks could initially rise when trading begins on Monday, but will probably fall after that.
"The election's influence should be relatively short term, and the stock market will eventually reflect the environment," On said.
The flow of money into stocks could put short-term pressure on the bond market, pushing yields up, said Ernest Lee, fixed income manager at Mega Securities.
"The stock market celebration could be one or two days," he said. "Financial markets will have the same view on the economy's broader future." The Taiwan dollar should be well supported as it had been tracking the domestic stock market over the past month, dealers said.
政府基金護八千 下禁賣令
杜蕙蓉／台北報導 (2008-01-11)
立委選舉倒數計時，總統大選積極開打，政府基金啟動「護盤行情」，近日積極對代操四大基金的操盤人喊出「禁賣令」，顯示政府積極護守八千點關卡的做多心態；由於一月二十日新制勞退基金還有三百億元資金將再度釋出，為求雀屏中選，投信昨日已翻空為多，從善如流買超二九億元，是今年以來首度買超。
承接政府基金前三大部位的代操投信高階主管指出，本周確實有接獲政府基金明示希望看到「買超」現象。由於立委選舉還有公投等投票的紛擾議題，比較容易造成股民信心鬆動，而總統選舉的投票模式反倒單純，加上立委選後，選情一翻兩瞪眼，不管是藍軍或綠軍勝，大家都開始要為總統大選拉票，在政策積極做多下，此時佈局風險不高，因此，「會呼應政策加碼」。
據了解，為了積極護盤，去年十二月十八日當大盤指數跌破八千點時，政府基金就對代操基金提出關切，對於操盤人若出現賣股動作，就會打電話關心，因此，不少投信業在十二月二十日以後，買超動作一度頗為積極，一直到二八日以後才一面倒向賣超。
代操基金操盤人指出，由於立委選舉大概已可看出藍軍應會勝選，而此結果勢必會對民進黨總統大選造成影響下，將迫使執政黨努力烘托選舉行情，而謝長廷為了總統大選勝選，選舉基調也會靠向中間選民，而與馬英九抗衡，預期雙方都將端出經濟牛肉大餐，為台股營造漲勢。
明道大學財金系主任梁彥平說，政府關切台股動作一直都有，尤其是股市只要一跌破八千點，代操基金就會有壓力，而護盤動作也相當明顯，像日前拉金融、IC設計和鴻海、群創等股票，都是指標。
不過，梁彥平也認為，美國次級房貸風暴在布希回國後，應該會有穩定人心的政策動作釋出，使FED一月三十日宣佈降息的機率很高，在此利多將引導資金釋出，加上美國和台灣都有總統選舉，大陸則將舉行奧運下，都使美股和陸股表現不會太差，台股也可望趕搭順風車，因此，台股八千點以下買進是很安全的，政府基金的護盤很正常，也會更積極。
去年外資淨匯入 創五年新低
薛翔之／台北報導 (2008-01-11)
外資淨匯入金額，創近五年新低。根據金管會最新數據，截至去（二○○七）年底，累積外資淨匯入金額為一三七六．○二億美元，單年度外資淨匯入七二．六五億美元，未及百億元，該匯入規模，也是近五年新低。
觀察近五年的外資淨匯入，二○○三年單年外資淨匯入為二三三．二七億美元，成長五四．二三％，二○○五年並創下單年史上新高，高達二八八．五億美元，且近五年，匯入規模最少也有一三七億元，不過，今年卻跌破百億元。
外資淨匯入大減，是否意味外資不看好台灣？對此，金管會官員強調，外資對台灣資本市場仍然十分看好，且投資資金絕大部分屬於中長期資金，截至十二月下旬，外資持有上市公司總市值的比重，逾三成，約三三％。
官員也指出，今年外資匯出規模較大，主要是因為次級房貸，全球資金變現性需求增加所致。
根據金管會數據，截至上週五（四日），累計外資淨匯入為一三七五．四七億美元，亦即新年開盤的前四天，外資仍呈現匯出態勢，匯出金額約五五○○萬美元。
金管會也強調，先前已陸續開放外資投資投信發行或私募的外幣計價基金、債券、買賣國內券商經營的股權衍生性商品、向券商或證金公司借入有價證券，以及對五○指數成分股、中型一○○指數等，在平盤以下借券賣出；未來也將持續檢討放寬外資投資限制，鼓勵外資來台。
政治烏雲退散 台股弱中帶強 短線有反彈
呂俊儀／台北報導(2008-01-13)
美股上周五再見重挫格局，儘管昨日的立委大選藍營大勝，但在費城半導體重挫二．三九％，法人普遍認為，台股盤勢呈現弱中帶強格局，在政治不確定因素消除下，短期反彈行情可期，但類股強勢分明，弱勢指標則由科技股中則由半導體族群為首，強勢指標則以非科技的中概股、小而美的個股為主。
法人認為，今年第一季半導體景氣將自高峰開始反轉，維持中立投資建議；因此，目前市場等待台積電，計畫在農曆台股封關前三十一日召開的第四季法說，法人預估台積電今年首季營收將較去年第四季下滑約一成，晶圓代工景氣可望在第一季觸底後逐步回升。
華頓台灣金磚基金經理人林翠萍表示，近來美股利空消息襲擊，台股數度跌破八千點信心關卡，但隨即又回到整數關卡之上，顯見打底深，且前波斷頭融資賣壓逐漸消除，指數除非有重大利空襲擊，再測前波低點機會不大。林翠萍也解釋，台股受美國景氣連動程度大，預期全球資金將轉移至受美國經濟影響較輕與受惠中國經濟成長原物料相關產業。
寶來矽谷基金經理人陳建宗也分析，技術面上，台股週成交量六千六百億元，較五週均量五三四二億元高，顯示已有補量動作，雖上週處於開低後走高震盪格局，但週線仍收紅K棒，逢低承接買盤明顯增溫，具備反彈態勢，因此立委選舉結束，政治因素近一步釐清後，盤勢可望趁勢展開短期反彈。
陳建宗預期，上週台股連續二日開高走低，大盤遲遲未能突破九八五九點連結八五三二點下降趨勢線，足見上檔賣壓仍重，預期台股選後反彈，空間也不會太大，尤其台股將進入農曆春節封關時期，指數也不排除有拉回修正整理可能。
外資圈看好：將有3至5％漲幅
張志榮／台北報導 (2008-01-13)
國民黨立委選舉拿下八一席、大獲全勝，摩根大通證券台灣區研究部主管劉至昱昨（十二）日指出，這是對台股最理想的結果，雖有美股大跌陰影，政治利多氣勢應可壓過利空，未來二至三天台股應有三％至五％上漲空間可期，表現也有機會優於整個亞太區股市。
雖然外資圈選前對國民黨取得過半席次有高度期待，但與港商里昂證券台灣區研究部主管蘇廷翰（Peter Sutton）所預估的六三至六八席相較，八一席是明顯大勝，也讓外資圈「鬆了一口氣」！
摩根大通證券董事長林照寰指出，這樣的選舉結果應該比藍營預期的還要好，中概資產股今天應該有一波慶祝行情可走，除非爆大量，警訊才會出現，不過，內資重要性會比外資來得高，因此新台幣價量走勢將是觀察焦點。
民進黨區域立委選舉結果大敗，林照寰認為，從政黨得票率藍綠約五一％與三七％來看，應該才是總統大選的「基本盤」，因此這次區域立委選舉結果不必然可以直接連動到對總統大選的預測。
不過林照寰相信以中概與資產股為首的族群將延續上週氣勢，扮演本週台股領頭羊，尤其是最近國際股市表現如此差，國際資金即便對中概傳產股有興趣，也得受到科技股調節壓力，對台股資金動能助益不大。
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