Stockbrokers have resisted displaying live FTSE ST Indices on their screens because of the charges that they are charged for the data. They argue they don't want to pay extra, even though they won't be charged for the first year (they secured the first-year-free concession after earlier protests). But FTSE says it costs money to compile the indices on a daily basis. Our view is that the whole debate is rather childish and the losers, once again, are retail investors.
Stockbrokers have gone through a rough ride in recent years. First the deregulation of commissions brought prices down to S$25 per online trade, S$40 per broker-assisted trade over the phone, or alternatively 0.275% or 0.28% for large trades. Previously, they got paid much more. We saw a significant round of consolidation in 1999 and 2000, which brought about, among others, the combination of Vickers Ballas and DBS to form DBS Vickers, KayHian and UOB to form UOB KayHian, and so on. For brokers who've already seen their commissions drop, any additional cost is borne by them, and not passed on to clients. They absorb extra costs because of the competition in the market, and because retail investors are generally unwilling to pay.
The irony is, the brokers are behaving just the same. Even as they complain that they have no pricing power, that retail investors generally are cheapskates who complain about "high" brokerage commissions and demand that "everything also must be free", they are asking FTSE and the SGX to do the same.
It would be much better for everyone - including retail investors - to comprehend the value of data and information. Without these, no one would be doing any trades. Data and information are not luxury add-ons. They are crucial to the whole trading process. It's like refusing to fuel up your car to spite the oil companies and high oil prices. But your car won't go anywhere!
My understanding is ShareInvestor.com has a separate data charge for its subscribers, much like airlines have a fuel surcharge separate to the price of airline tickets. Perhaps the brokers should consider this? After all, currently they look like the bad boys in this dispute. If they provided the service but passed on the cost - in a year from now, when the charges kick in - they pass the responsibility of the costs to the SGX. By then, retail investors will be so used to seeing the indices, they won't be able to do without them and this whole issue becomes mute.
Mark Laudi - who favours the FTSE ST All Share Index as the new benchmark
Singapore Exchange 2nd-Quarter Net Income Rises 44%
By Chia-Peck Wong and Jean Chua
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore Exchange Ltd., the operator of the city's securities and derivatives markets, said its fiscal second-quarter profit rose 44 percent, boosted by a one-time gain and an increase in the value of shares traded.
Net income climbed to S$156.4 million ($109 million), or 14.59 cents a share, in the three months ended Dec. 31, from S$108.7 million, or 10.21 cents a year earlier, the company known as SGX said in a statement today. That beat the S$123 million median estimate of five analysts Bloomberg News surveyed.
Profit rose as the local benchmark Straits Times Index gained 17 percent in the quarter, while the daily average value of shares traded almost doubled to S$2.4 billion from S$1.3 billion a year ago. Still, investors' concerns that share- trading may be hurt by a possible U.S. recession pushed SGX shares 7.1 percent lower today, the biggest fall in five months.
``The market is probably pricing for lower volumes going forward; it's really hard to see any upside and sentiment looks more negative'' amid concerns an economic slowdown in the U.S. would hurt investor demand for stocks, Tay Chin Seng, an analyst at Macquarie Securities Pte, said before the results, which were released after the markets closed in Singapore.
The second-quarter profit was also boosted by a one-time gain from a S$34 million distribution from a compensation fund, SGX said today. The figures belie slowing growth from SGX's first fiscal quarter, when the index surged 47 percent while the value of shares traded almost tripled.
Diversifying Revenue
Without the gain, profit was 6 percent lower from the three months ended Sept. 30. To counter a possible slowdown in share trading, SGX is diversifying its revenue from the Singapore stock market by attracting more foreign companies to trade shares, Chief Financial Officer Seck Wai Kwong said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
Operating revenue in the quarter gained 63 percent to S$203.5 million, SGX added. Securities market revenue almost doubled to S$122 million from S$64.1 million a year earlier because of an 86 percent rise in trading value, SGX said.
Sales from derivatives clearing surged 40 percent to S$38.6 million after trading volume rose. Excluding the one-time gains in both quarters, net income almost doubled to S$122.4 million from last year's S$63.7 million, SGX said.
Eight Chinese companies sold shares during the quarter, Chief Executive Officer Hsieh Fu Hua said at a briefing, indicating there are ``no signs'' that IPOs from China are slowing.
Initial Share Offerings
For the quarter, there were 21 initial share offerings in the city-state that raised S$2.9 billion, with 14 from foreign companies, SGX said. A year earlier, there were 20 stock sales, including 17 from foreign companies, amounting to S$2.5 billion.
SGX is holding discussions with Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. on collaborating in areas such as derivative trading and creating products that could be traded on both bourses, Seck said.
``We are very optimistic about the market over there,'' he said. SGX bought a 5 percent stake in Bombay Stock Exchange last year.
SGX's Hsieh said he has yet to hear from Tokyo Stock Exchange Inc., the world's second-biggest equities market, on boosting its stake. The Tokyo bourse still holds 4.99 percent of SGX, Hsieh said today, adding that talks are ongoing.
The Tokyo exchange bought its stake in SGX in June last year for $303 million.
SGX said it will pay a dividend of 3 cents a share, from 2 cents last year. Its shares have fallen 25 percent this year, making it the fifth-worst performer on the 248-member MSCI AC Asia-Pacific Financials Index.
SINGAPORE - The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) will pour funds into struggling US bank Citigroup, The Wall Street Journal reported on its website on Tuesday.
The Journal, citing people familiar with the plan, said the announcement would come as part of Citigroup's fourth-quarter earnings report due later on Tuesday.
In Singapore, a GIC spokeswoman had no comment on the Journal's report.
The Journal said GIC would be the largest investor but funds would also come from the Kuwait Investment Authority and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.
At least one US money-management fund also is likely to participate, the report said, valuing the cash infusion at a minimum US$10 billion.
GIC and the Singapore state-linked investment firm Temasek Holdings were thrust into the global spotlight in December with separate multi-billion-dollar investments in two global financial institutions also suffering mortgage-related losses.
On December 24, US brokerage firm Merrill Lynch said Temasek had committed to buying a US$4.4-billion stake just days after GIC said it would inject almost US$10 billion into Swiss-based investment bank UBS.
Citigroup was also expected to announce a sizeable dividend cut and writedown of as much as US$20 billion in mortgage-related investments, the Journal said.
The newspaper reported on Monday that China Development Bank is expected to invest roughly US$2 billion in Citigroup but a China Development Bank spokeswoman would not confirm the report.
America's second-biggest banking group by market worth reaped a third-quarter profit of US$2.4 billion but its losses, especially from mortgage-backed securities, have ballooned.
Top executives warned that the bank faced further investment losses of between US$8 billion and US$11 billion, largely due to mortgage investment writeoffs. -- AFP
The Short View: Resurgence of the yen By John Authers, Investment Editor
Published: January 15 2008 19:42 | Last updated: January 15 2008 19:42
If there were any glimmers of light amid Tuesday’s dreadful news, few saw them. From the awful results that forced Citigroup to cut its dividend, to bad US retail sales figures that deepened fears of recession in the world’s biggest economy, to the ZEW survey showing German business confidence at a 15-year low, bad news was everywhere.
But the resurgence of the yen is potentially the scariest news of all. It dropped below Y107 to the dollar for the first time since June 2005. This broke a trend of steadily weakening against the dollar that had been happening since 1994, according to Nomura.
This is important because the yen has become a gauge for risk aversion in the markets. When traders feel confident, they borrow in yen to fund investments elsewhere. This yields easy profits unless the yen suddenly appreciates. A rising yen betokens fear.
Hence its close correlation with the equity indices, and with equity volatility. Share prices fall, and volatility rises, when the yen does well.
The yen’s rise has nothing to do with fundamentals. Indeed, the Bank of Japan yesterday reduced its economic assessments of four of its nine regions and admitted the economy was slowing, reducing the chances of a rate rise.
A strong yen is not good news for anyone – including the Japanese. Falls this year have left the Nikkei 225 stock index in a bear market, down 23.4 per cent from its high of July last year. Fears that the revived yen will damage exporters have contributed to the damage.
Are there any signs of light? The rise in the yen, combined with dramatically bearish surveys of investor sentiment, suggests fear has totally taken over from greed in the markets – a classic contrarian indicator of a time to buy stocks.
The long-awaited capitulation may be under way. Scarily, that is the best reason for optimism.
The United States is sliding into recession. Japan seems too. China is tightening aggressively. Oil has soared past $100 per barrel. The stars are lined up for a perfect storm as 2008 begins. Hang Seng Index may drop 20% over the next three months. The market may recover in the second quarter as the Olympic mania affects market sentiment. Before investors can taste the joy of 2008, they must eat bitterness first.
2008 is a turning point in the global economy. The current bull market began in mid-2003: Americans recovered from the '9-11' shock and China recovered from the SARS shock. Both felt a near-death experience and became determined to live it up a bit, just in case. Americans went on a borrow-and-spend binge. The defining picture must be throngs of people rushing through the just-opened doors at Wal-Mart Centers. Chinese threw the money into property and then stock market and watched both rise. The defining picture must be the throngs of people staring up at the tickers screens. The two spent differently but got the same thrill.
Well, every party must end. America's is ending now. China's may have a few innings left but may experience a big hiccup soon as the US burst chills sentiment here and inflation scares Chinese policymakers into taking the away, even though temporarily. The combination may cook up the perfect storm for Hong Kong market.
The bull market depends on rising earnings and cheap capital. The former has benefited from 15% annual growth rate of China's nominal GDP for the past three years and rising share of corporate earnings in the economy due to faster asset appreciation. The macro tightening could take a big bite out of both. The tightening may slow nominal growth rate by 20%. It will reverse the rising trend of profit share in the economy, mainly due to its powerful effects on earnings in the property and financial sector. The growth rate for China's corporate earnings may halve in 2008, with banks and properties the biggest casualties.
Despite the Fed's rate reductions, the US economy is still sliding into a recession. The credit crisis has exposed the risks of buying into complex Wall Street products. It deters international capital from flowing to the US. Foreign capital has funded the US borrow-and-spend binge. Unless the confidence in Wall Street returns, Americans won't have enough money to spend. It takes time for foreigners to recover their faith in the Wall Street. The Fed's policy couldn't substitute this. Its rate reductions would only make dollar weaker and increase inflation. As a result, stagflation may stalk the US economy for a couple of years.
The US recession will decrease risk appetite among international investors. As international capital still dominates the Hong Kong market, it could see significant outflow. Further, many financial institutions in the US have capital shortage. They may have to pull money out of Hong Kong. Facing a banking crisis at home in 1998, Japanese financial institutions pulled big amounts of money out of Hong Kong. The US financial institutions may do the same in 2008.
Would Chinese money come to the rescue? Not soon enough. Chinese money may be flowing back into the A-share market recently. Even though the A-shares are so much more expensive than the same shares in Hong Kong, buoyant local sentiment still keeps them up. Chinese investors may be irrational. But, there are so many of them that they can keep an irrational market going for a long time. Hong Kong market is just too rational for the comfort of Chinese investors. Hence, Chinese market becomes a safe haven during the international correction.
The Fed reductions may not benefit like before. The property demand in Hong Kong depends on gains in the stock market rather than wage income. The wage gains are not exceeding inflation by much. The lower US interest rate won't spike Hong Kong wage earners to borrow and purchase properties like before. Stagnant population is another headwind for property. Japan shows that, with stagnant population, even zero interest rate doesn't make property price go up. Despite all the hypes about Hong Kong property, it may have peaked already.
In the second quarter, international financial markets may calm down, after fully pricing in a US recession. Chinese money may return to Hong Kong again, to play at a lower level. International investors may also have overcome their fear of the US dragging down China. As the two embrace, the market may fly again, even though the US market remains stone cold.
The Olympics party may not last long. After the summer, reality may catch up with investors again. Many Chinese companies are concept plays, not lasting franchises. Some might even be scams, despite being taken to the market by renowned investment banks. Remember subprime: big names don't mean much anymore. China's tightening will expose the negative cash flow businesses of such companies. The resulting explosions may affect confidence.
The air in Hong Kong and Shanghai may be squeezed soon after the Olypics. The deflating process may be painful to many. But it would make China's capital markets and economic development healthier. Many 'share gods' have emerged in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Their 15 minutes of fame are far more damaging than Paris Hilton's: they suck credulous housewives into overvalued shares without the pleasant look to soothe. Worse, they might be talking there own books and could be getting out while talking bullish.
Even bubble here goes through the same routine. Investment banks take doggy companies to the market for a fee. Some new faces suddenly don the cover of Fortune Magazine as the riches this and that. When the show stops, most stars suddenly vanish. Some manage to escape into the deep woods of Thailand with some stolen cash. Little people always lose. We seem to be doomed to repeat the same mistake again and again.
African proverb: “Only a fool tests the depth of the water with both feet.”
"HAIL TO THE KING" -- There's one forumer in SI forum who vested, worshipped and fell-in-love madly with the stock, Rowsley.
I read the following article amples times; and I still like to read it again and again, till today...
Former 'remiser king': equities still have legs
But he's worried about the property market
By TEH HOOI LING July 16, 2007
(SINGAPORE) Peter Lim, the man formerly known as the 'Remisier King' and who is estimated to be worth more than $2 billion today, reckons the stock market still has two good years to go. But he is getting concerned about the property market.
'The market won't collapse for the next two, three years. It's all sentiment-driven. People are making more money, and so long as people are spending, we are OK. But one has got to start to think how to exit at the end of 2-3 years - 2009, before the casino starts operating,' he said.
Mr Lim is, of course, well known as an influential stockbroker and deal-maker in the Singapore and Malaysian markets in the early 1990s. That was also when he made his millions, but quit at his peak to take care of divorce proceedings.
Despite being out of the industry, it was in the last few years that his fortunes took a leap forward, thanks to the booming stock market. He was recently in the news for agreeing to put $150 million into Rowsley for its reverse takeover of a China solar company.
In a near four-hour interview with BT to talk about his market views and investment philosophy, Mr Lim said a lot of the big companies listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) today have a global presence.
Like Keppel Corp, for instance; it can't fulfil all the orders for its oil rigs. So even if there is a shift in investor sentiment and the market corrects severely, investors can still ride out the whole cycle, said Mr Lim - barring a global recession, of course.
The danger, he said, is in the small-cap sector. 'Some of these stocks have gone up a lot. Much of the potential has been priced in. If this potential is cut short by any unexpected unfortunate event, they will come down like a rock.'
Small-cap stocks run up fast because of their small float. But when the sentiment turns, everyone is a seller, he said.
As for the property market, Mr Lim thinks prices have gone up too fast. The sharp increase has taken everyone by surprise, even the government. 'Actually, it's quite simple. Singapore is small. You get a small bucket, and pour a lot of water, it'll overflow. This is what's happening. I think the demand just comes together at the same time. I don't think it's sustainable.'
Demand is so strong that people are knocking down buildings, and that's curtailing supply even more.
But the thing is, the buildings knocked down will have three times more apartments when they get rebuilt a few years down the road. 'When the supply comes out, property prices will drop,' he said.
Comparisons have been drawn between Singapore and London. 'But you tell me: how many en bloc (redevelopments) do they have in London? No en blocs means no additional supply.' he said.
Mr Lim is worried about the impact of high rentals on businesses - office rentals have gone up by 200-300 per cent in the last few years. 'Costs are going to bloat . . . most businesses' margins are going to be eaten up by costs.'
At the moment, many individuals and companies are making money from asset inflation, he said. 'You hope that this asset inflation becomes an income, becomes regular. But I don't think so. These are all situational. But it will go one day.
'I'm not a pessimist, but this is how I see it. That's why at the end of a bull market, you see a new generation coming up. Because all the old ones die. Now and then, you see one of those who stays - then he becomes a legend. And if you observe those legends, most of the time, they spend their time scolding people: 'don't gear, don't gamble'.'
And that exactly was the message that he kept harping on during the interview.
'A lot of people get it wrong. When the bull market is here, they build debts. Bull market is the time to build cash. Because today's market turns very quickly. When the market turns, you cannot sell, especially for the property market. You can only sell when things are going up.
'So I always tell my friends: 'Make sure you stay alive. The market won't die, so there's always a next time.'
By BT's estimates, Mr Lim is worth in excess of $2 billion. He has just under 5 per cent in Wilmar International. Based on the company's current market capitalisation of $22 billion on SGX, that stake alone is worth $1.11 billion. He has about 11 per cent in FJ Benjamin, and that's worth $52.6 million. Meanwhile, his 25 per cent stake in Rowsley has a market value of $37 million. So his Singapore equities alone are worth $1.2 billion. On top of that, he has some Australian mining stocks bought in the 1970s and '80s.
Mr Lim says 50 per cent of his portfolio is now in equities, another 10 per cent in properties and the remaining 40 per cent in cash. The cash is from the dividends he received, which he has not reapplied to the market. So all in, he's worth more than $2.4 billion.
The 54-year-old believes that the fortune he has today is pre-destined. 'This size - substantially, it's your destiny. If today I have $10 million, I'd say over 90 per cent is due to my hard work. But getting it right is not $1 billion. Maybe it's $100 million. How that $100 million becomes $1 billion, you know it's because somebody likes you. You must believe it's somehow a path that's been drawn.'
The bulk of his net worth is in Wilmar, in which he was asked to pump in under $10 million in the early 1990s. By the second half of the decade, he had totally written off that investment. That was when the Indonesian currency fell from 2,500 rupiah against the US dollar (the exchange rate he invested in Wilmar), to 16,000 rupiah, and president Suharto was ousted. There were riots in Indonesia. There was no way of cashing out the assets. But in a few years, things stabilised in Indonesia and the pieces began to come together for Wilmar. Its China operations began to pick up, businessman Robert Kuok decided to inject his Malaysian palm oil operations into Wilmar and palm oil prices started to go through the roof because of the scramble to produce biofuels.
'My Indonesian partner was asking me the other day: 'How the hell did we make so much money?'
'Up to a point after people tell you a story and a vision, don't write it off. Sometimes it comes true. You just make sure that if it doesn't come true, you don't get hurt too much,' he said.
The most important factor to consider when investing in a company is the person running it; you look at whether the person is honest, and whether he or she is master of their trade.
'It works. It's a tested method of assessing companies,' Mr Lim said.
Wilmar is not his only lucky break. He escaped the Asian crisis as he had quit the broking profession in 1996 to prepare for his divorce proceedings. And he spent the next six months liquidating most of his stock positions. So when the crisis hit, he was mostly in cash.
He was also not in the market during the dotcom bubble as the hearing on the division of matrimonial assets dragged on until 2001. He thanks his lucky stars for having avoided the Asian financial crisis, but thinks he would not have been caught in the insanity of the dotcom bubble.
Nowadays, Mr Lim spends his time dispensing advice to deal-makers in the industry - and sends them a bill of $300,000 or more for it. He still gets a thrill out of structuring deals, which he says is similar to a chess game.
He described the recent Rowsley deal to acquire a solar energy company in China as 'beautiful', as one which allows existing shareholders to 'lock in the upside, but hedge the downside'.
He's also having to cope with the problems of having too much money. He worries if his children, a 15-year-old girl and 13-year-old boy, will be spoilt by his wealth. He reckons he may give the bulk of his money to charity eventually.
But going by the four-hour lunches that he takes - with Imperial Treasure at Great World City being his Canteen No 1 and Kuriya his Canteen No 2 - and sometimes squeezing in a game of tennis or two before dinner, the money problem can't be all that bad.
HIS VIEWS ON . . .
Cutting deals
Maybe it's in the blood. It's quite exciting to pitch a deal, to make sure that you don't catch me. It's like a chess game: you make this move, the next one I make. I don't want to get checkmate.
Wealth
Money is a funny thing. When you don't have it, you want it. But when you have it, you have a lot of problems. I believe that if I'd had no money, I wouldn't have had my divorce. Things wouldn't be good, but it wouldn't end up in a divorce.
Growing old
Once you are old, every year makes a lot of difference. Your lease gets shorter, there's no extension. You go, you go.
Death
Some of my school mates have passed away. So once you start to see all these things, your perspective on life becomes more measured, more considered.
Making money
It's very difficult to make money from trading. People who get rich are those who buy a company, build it, run it. Most of the traders, they come, they make money, because they have this gambling instinct. They take the money and spend it. The minute they lose money, they got no money to pay up.
The next downturn
Today's bull run can get cut short by a number of things. Just like our recent experience with Sars, or a bomb drops on the wrong person's head. Like anything else, the least expected thing can happen at the wrong time. I got a feeling the next downturn will be very severe.
The good life: Nowadays, Mr Lim spends his time dispensing advice to deal-makers in the industry - and sends them a bill of $300K for it
Life is NOT like a box of chocolates. It’s more like a jar of jalapenos. What you do today, might burn your ass tomorrow...
Hear Me Cry
You can't say Needed someone new You actually thought Deep inside I knew
Can you tell me how can you say Why this should suffice You passed me by And your heart's as cold as ice (You passed me by)
Did you see me cry (Did you ask yourself why) Did you see me cry (Did you ask yourself how) Can you hear me cry (Did you ask yourself) Will we ever grow apart
You couldn't say Needed someone new And you actually thought Deep inside I knew
I wonder where we will go Will we be the same (You passed me by) I laugh inside I think of you And the love we made (You passed me by)
Tell me why this should suffice I hold you through the night Now will I let it go Soon I'll let it go
Can you hear me cry (Will you ask yourself why) Can you hear me cry (Will you ask yourself how) Can you hear me cry (Will you ask yourself) Will we ever grow apart
You, I'll stand by your side I'll be there for you (You passed me by) You, I'll stand by your side Please just do me right (You passed me by)
You, I'll stand by your side I'll be there for you
The stock market is in a state of near-panic. The Dow tanked another 307 points yesterday, continuing a string of triple-digit declines that have marred the new year. The latest action is proof positive that the credit problems that began in the housing and home mortgage market are spreading out in concentric circles.
They're forcing builders to cut back furiously on home construction. They're causing companies to slash jobs. They're weakening the broader economy, helping drive losses on credit cards, auto loans, and other products higher.
And nowhere is the impact as severe as the U.S. financial sector. Banks and brokers are spilling so much red ink that it's hard to keep up with it all!
If you want to make sound investment decisions in 2008, understanding these figures is critically important.
The markets are crumbling and we've got no time to waste, so let's get right into the big-picture trends that are jumping right off the pages ...
Gigantic Write-downs Continue To Imperil the Financial Sector!
From regional banks to the financial behemoths, firms are owning up to huge losses.
Much of the carnage is coming from home mortgages and so-called "structured finance" deals. One major culprit — the once-ballyhooed Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), a form of fixed-income security that invests in slices of other packaged loans — bundles of mortgages, auto loans, corporate debt, and so on.
These caustic investments are now showing up in press release after press release ...
The Bank of New York Mellon (BK) wrote down its CDOs by $118 million ...
M&T Bank (MTB) announced a $127 million CDO charge ...
Merrill Lynch (MER) reported a stunning $11.5 billion in fourth-quarter charges tied to CDOs. Merrill's total quarterly loss was $9.83 billion versus a profit of $2.35 billion a year earlier ...
And Citigroup (C) won the blue ribbon, taking an eye-popping $18 billion charge. That helped drive the firm deep into the red — it lost $9.83 billion in the quarter versus a profit of $5.1 billion a year earlier.
Here's another crucial NEW development that you need to know about: Many of these firms have insured the value of their CDOs and other holdings by entering into "credit insurance" policies with certain counterparties.
Think of these like you would any insurance policy. As a homeowner, you buy homeowners' insurance to protect yourself against the risk your house will burn down. Well, financial firms can also buy credit insurance — insurance that ostensibly protects their portfolios against losses if the bonds or other securities they're holding go into default.
There's just one problem: Some of the parties who SOLD those credit insurance policies are facing huge financial difficulties. Martin has talked about Ambac, MBIA, and the others before.
Since then, the prices of their own shares and debt securities have continued to plunge. The reason: So many CDOs and other securities are going into default, or threatening to do so down the road, that investors are worried the losses will swamp the insurers. In simple terms, they're worried the insurers won't be able to make good on the policies they sold.
And that could spark a whole new round of mega-writedowns and charges. Indeed, Merrill Lynch took a $2.6-billion hit because one of its insurers, ACA Capital Holdings, is under severe financial pressure. It wrote off its ACA-provided coverage as worthless.
Meanwhile, Credit Losses Are Rising Fast on All Kinds of Loans
It's not just mark-to-market hits on the value of esoteric debt securities plaguing the financial sector.
Let's be honest: Big financial firms take big market risks all the time, and sometimes they get burned. Investors are able to ignore these events.
But now these companies are also seeing their bread and butter underlying loans go sour at a rapid pace. I'm not just talking about home mortgages, either.
For example, Citigroup said credit costs in the U.S. consumer business surged $4.1 billion. That number included a charge of $3.31 billion to boost the bank's loan loss reserve due to rising delinquencies on first and second mortgages, as well as personal loans, credit cards, and car loans.
What about JPMorgan? The firm's retail banking division boosted its provision for credit losses to $1.05 billion from $262 million a year earlier. That's a fourfold increase, only part of which was driven by problems in the home equity and mortgage arena.
And I don't know if you saw it, but the Wall Street Journal had a great story this week about a "sudden acceleration in auto loan delinquencies." It said some 2.06% of prime-credit auto loans made in 2006 are already more than 30-days delinquent.
That's a higher level of early defaults than we saw in 2001, when the economy was last in recession!
Loans made in 2007 are performing even worse, a sign that auto lenders went too far out on the risk curve just like their mortgage lender brethren.
Also noteworthy: It used to be the homeowners who were having credit problems with individual mortgages. Now home and condo DEVELOPERS are starting to have problems paying off their loans.
Look at it this way: If you're a banker and one of your customers can't pay his $300,000 mortgage, that's bad. But if you're a banker and one of the builders you've lent money to can't pay his $300 MILLION development loan, the losses can be exponentially larger!
Make No Mistake: Housing Remains Weak And Commercial Real Estate Is Slowing
December was a particularly nasty month for the construction industry. Housing starts were off by more than 14% on the month ... 38% on the year ... and 56% from the market peak.
We haven't seen this little construction activity since March 1991!
Permits, for their part, dropped 8.1% on the month ... 34.4% on the year ... and a whopping 52.8% from their peak.
The decline was geographically widespread, too. Construction fell in all four regions, while permit activity fell in three out of four.
Separately, an index that measures builder optimism, current sales trends, and buyer traffic remains in the dumps. At 19, the index is just off December's reading of 18, which was the lowest level since the National Association of Home Builders began its survey in 1985.
Clearly, builders are still under immense pressure. More bankruptcies could be coming soon. The Federal Reserve's latest "Beige Book" — which contains anecdotal evidence on the economy collected from contacts around the U.S. — also noted that commercial construction activity was slowing and that rental growth rates are slumping.
That's exactly what I've been warning you about for several quarters, and it confirms my suspicion that a surge in commercial real estate loan delinquencies is coming next.
This Means the Broad Market and The Economy Are in Dire Straits
The financials are the heart of our economy. They finance our debt-driven society. And right now, they're gushing red ink.
They've already been tightening loan standards, and cutting back on new lending so they can repair their balance sheets. But if these losses persist — or get worse as the economy slumps — you're going to see credit get even tighter.
That's bearish for the market, no matter how you slice it.
So NOW is the time to get even more cautious, in my view. Jettison some losers and take some more gains off the table on winners. Build more cash reserves and take a conservative approach to spending. That's the best way to protect yourself — and your portfolio — from the continued weakness that we're going to experience.
Doubts on AAA ratings for Ambac, MBIA spark turmoil in muni bond market
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch Jan. 18, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Just when you thought it was over, trouble in the $2.3 trillion bond-insurance business could trigger another wave of big write-downs from banks and brokerage firms, experts said Friday.
Leading bond insurers Ambac Financial (ABK) and MBIA Inc. (MBI) look increasingly likely to lose their AAA ratings. While almost unthinkable just six months ago, such concerns are also causing turmoil in the $2.5 trillion municipal-bond market.
Bond insurers agree to pay principal and interest when due in a timely manner in the event of a default -- a $2.3 trillion business that offers a credit-rating boost to municipalities and other issuers that don't have AAA ratings. Without those top ratings, their business models may be imperiled.
A more worrying consideration is that when a bond insurer is downgraded, all the securities it has guaranteed are, in theory, downgraded as well.
If Ambac and MBIA lose their top ratings, billions of dollars of muni bonds will be downgraded, and the guarantees that have been sold on mortgage-related securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, will lose value.
Bond insurers guarantee roughly $1.4 trillion worth of muni bonds and more than $600 billion of structured finance securities, such as mortgage-backed securities and CDOs, according to Standard & Poor's. Ambac alone has guaranteed about $67 billion of CDOs.
"The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame," Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.
Kravec cut her rating on Ambac and MBIA on Friday because she thinks that ratings downgrades are "highly probable" now.
Indeed, Fitch Ratings cut Ambac's AAA rating to AA on Friday, becoming the first major agency to take that step. Fitch downgraded 137,390 muni bond issues and 114 other securities guaranteed by Ambac soon after.
Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) took a $3.1 billion write-down on Thursday related to the firm's CDO hedges. Merrill had bought CDO guarantees from bond insurers including ACA Capital, a smaller player that's now struggling to survive. Most of the write-downs were related to ACA.
CIBC (CM) and French banking giant Credit Agricole unveiled similar write-downs in December, related to guarantees they bought from ACA.
'Whopping'
But ACA is much smaller than Ambac and MBIA. If the two larger bond insurers are downgraded, banks and brokers that have bought guarantees from them may have to write-down their exposures further.
Merrill has net CDO exposure of $4.8 billion. But that includes a lot of hedging, mainly through guarantees bought from bond insurers. Excluding those hedges, the brokerage firm still has a "whopping" $30.4 billion of CDOs on its balance sheet, Brad Hintz, an analyst at Bernstein Research, noted on Friday.
"We remain very uncomfortable with Merrill's CDO balance sheet exposure," the analyst wrote in a note to investors. "If the counterparties are downgraded, and they cannot post additional collateral, we would expect that Merrill Lynch would have to take a valuation reserve against that specific exposure."
Citigroup (C) set aside $900 million during the fourth quarter to cover heightened credit risks related to counterparties it uses to hedge CDO risks.
Muni bond turmoil
The impact on the muni-bond market may be just as big, experts said Friday.
There are $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion of muni bonds. Roughly half of those are insured by bond, or "monoline," insurers like Ambac and MBIA.
So more than $1 trillion of muni bonds are now in danger of being downgraded. That could trigger losses for muni-bond investors.
"Assuming the "monoline" insurers lose their triple-A ratings, underlying insured muni bonds could be susceptible to downgrades and downward repricing, leading to losses for muni-bond mutual funds," Michael Kim, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill, told investors in a note Friday.
Shares of big muni-bond fund managers, including Franklin Resources (BEN) and Eaton Vance (EV) have already been hit by such concerns, Kim said.
Franklin stock has slumped 22% so far this year; Eaton Vance is off 27%.
Information vacuum
Most muni bonds insured by Ambac and MBIA are now trading as if there isn't any insurance, Richard Larkin, a municipal-trading desk analyst at JB Hanauer & Co., commented Friday.
"The market has lost all faith in bond insurance and the ratings agencies," he said. "Prices are being discounted because people wonder whether there is any value to the insurance."
That's a big problem, because there are no official ratings for many of the underlying issuers of muni bonds, such as cities, school districts and utilities, he added.
When municipalities sold debt, they asked agencies like S&P and Moody's to evaluate the securities with bond insurance attached.
If the insurance on this debt becomes less valuable, muni bond investors have few ways of checking the new creditworthiness of the issuer, Larkin said.
That's creating an "information vacuum" because the rating agencies aren't going to re-evaluate muni bond issuers unless the municipalities request and pay for new analysis, he said.
"The lack of public underlying ratings on insured debt is a big problem, and if more bond insurers are downgraded, the rating agencies are not likely to fill the vacuum and publish underlying ratings unless they are paid additional fees to do so," Larkin explained.
"Trades are being made based on people's best guesses of the creditworthiness of issuers," he added. "And if these downgrades happen, that will be the environment going forward. Not a good one."
AMERICA’S big bond insurers, which have underwritten some $2.4 trillion of private and public-sector bonds, usually go about their business largely unnoticed. But now they are looking distinctly wobbly they have started to attract attention. If one or more of them were to topple over, there will be a huge knock-on effect on banks and other financial institutions that rely on their guarantees. This in turn will further worsen the credit crunch and cause an even bigger headache for policymakers already grappling with a sharp slowdown in the American economy.
The threat of such a financial domino effect looms large. Moody’s, a credit-rating agency, has signalled that it might downgrade the AAA-ratings of two of the biggest bond insurers, MBIA and Ambac, in the near future. On Friday January 18th, Ambac said that it had dropped a plan to raise $1 billion of new equity capital to preserve its rating—making futher downgrades even likelier. In response, Fitch, another rating firm, cut Ambac's rating.
MBIA, which recently managed to raise $1 billion of new capital on top of another billion that it received from Warburg Pincus, a private-equity firm, will almost certainly need even more money if it is to preserve its AAA-rating. ACA Financial Guaranty Corporation, another insurer, is in even direr straits. In December its single-A credit rating was cut to junk status. The firm begged its trading partners to give it more time to sort out its problems. But by Friday it had still not come up with a rescue plan. The state insurance regulator of Maryland, where ACA is incorporated, has already assumed responsibility for some of its operations.
Bond insurers in effect “lend” their top-notch ratings to lower-quality debt, raising its value in the eyes of investors. Any cut in those ratings may make it impossible for the bond insurers to take on new business and would reduce the value of the securities they have already underwritten. Such cuts are now a distinct possibility because the insurers have underwritten billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities, including those notorious collateralised-debt obligations (CDOs) that have now gone sour.
On Wednesday Ambac announced a $3.5 billion writedown—as well as the ousting of its chief executive—$1.1 billion of which was related to CDOs. The insurers’ exposure to these and other exotic products is a huge multiple of their flimsy capital bases—and the chances of them having to cover claims has soared as the economy has slowed. Small wonder, then, that their share prices plummeted this week—proving that the market has already decided they no longer deserve such lofty ratings and creating a vicious downwards spiral. Ambac’s falling share price has severely dented it chances of raising fresh capital.
There are already signs that the insurers’ woes are contagious. On Thursday Merrill Lynch wrote down $3.1 billion on debt securities that it had hedged with ACA and other bond insurers. Other banks have also made writedowns to reflect their lack of confidence in ACA’s ability to meet its commitments. The full extent of the “counterparty risk” banks face in dealing with bond insurers is only now becoming apparent Jamie Dimon, the boss of JP Morgan Chase, has said that the fallout from the bond-insurer crisis could be “pretty terrible” for the debt markets. If a big insurer such as Ambac or MBIA were to take a tumble, that could look like an understatement.
BHP Billiton Says Western Australia Iron-Ore Profit Climbed 13%
By Jacob Greber and Rebecca Keenan
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said it boosted profit from its Western Australian iron-ore operations by 13 percent last year.
Earnings before interest and tax on iron rose to $27 per metric ton from $24 a ton a year earlier, Melbourne-based BHP said in a presentation posted on the company's Web site today.
BHP, which is bidding for Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company, said it plans to increase iron-ore production in Western Australia's northern Pilbara region to 300 million tons per year by 2015 from a current 108 million tons. London-based Rio, which rejected BHP's $110 billion hostile takeover offer, has said it plans to triple iron-ore production in the same region to 600 million tons.
BHP wants to combine its iron-ore operations with Rio to be able to deliver more metal faster and cheaper to Asian steel mills. The price of iron ore could rise 70 percent this year because of a global supply deficit, Credit Suisse Group said Jan. 17.
Iron-ore prices have risen for five years as China boosted output of steel, helping Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, Rio and BHP post record profits.
Rio's production of iron ore in Western Australia has risen at an annual compound rate of 14.8 percent since 1999, compared with 6.8 percent for BHP's operations in the state, Rio said Jan. 16.
Rio, the second-largest exporter of iron ore, this month completed a $1.4 billion expansion of Dampier Port in Western Australia, lifting iron-ore capacity by 90 percent. It has commissioned three 250,000-ton iron-ore ships, it said Jan. 7.
BHP said plans to expand capacity at its Port Headland shipping terminal are ``well advanced.'' The company is in negotiations with the Port Headland Port Authority to increase capacity in the port's inner harbor to 200 million tons per year, according to the presentation.
Takeover target Rio Tinto Ltd on Sunday declined to comment on speculation that rival miner BHP Billiton Ltd is on the cusp of making an improved bid for Rio.
Rio's share price in London jumped nearly five per cent on Friday amid speculation that a revised bid from BHP Billiton was imminent.
BHP Billiton has made an informal proposal of three of its shares for each Rio share, valuing the target around $US110 billion ($A126 billion).
Rio has rejected the proposal.
Analysts have said a revised offer might comprise 3.5 BHP Billiton shares for one Rio share, plus a cash component.
On December 21, the UK Takeovers Panel set a deadline of February 6 for BHP Billiton to announce its intention to make a firm and formal offer, or cease stalking Rio.
Rio chief executive Tom Albanese was asked on Sky News on Sunday if he expected a revised bid from BHP Billiton soon.
"I wouldn't comment on speculation. There's been an awful lot of speculation," Mr Albanese said.
He said that back in November last year, when BHP proposed a takeover of Rio, Rio had rejected the proposed offer as "not even close to matching that value equation".
"I'm as confident about that as I was back then," Mr Albanese said.
Asked if a cash addition or an increased share component to BHP's offer would be beneficial to Rio shareholders should the share market keep falling, Mr Albanese said: "Again, it's all about value.
"If the value's not there, it's not there. If it is there, it is there, but I wouldn't want to speculate."
Mr Albanese said that in the last few months it had been important to let investors know that Rio was a "great business to be investing in".
"The markets are good. We see a multi-decade demand outlook in India, in China," he said.
"We have a great organisation, we have great assets, great businesses. I love what we've got."
Mr Albanese said Rio's production in the last quarter had been very strong, and demand continued to be strong.
"For virtually everything we produce, if we produced any more, we'd still be selling it," he said.
"The demand is still driving very strong markets."
Asked if China would increase its demand for aluminium from Rio, Mr Albanese said that in 2007 demand had been stronger than anticipated.
He said demand for aluminum had lifted about 30 per cent in 2007.
"I would say we're seeing some moderating of that, but (we're) right on target with the 15 per cent (increase in demand) year-on-year between 2008 and 2007," he said.
"So all the numbers that we've talked about over the past few months, if anything, they're looking stronger."
Mr Albanese said demand for iron ore continued to be strong, and if anything, iron ore markets were tighter now than they were a few months ago.
"And I'd say from talking with our iron ore marketing team and in their discussions with the customers, it's the tightest that they've seen in years," he said.
Mr Albanese said that talk of getting a 70 per cent increase in iron ore prices from China very much reflected the very, very strong iron ore market.
On Friday on the local sharemarket, shares in Rio Tinto rose $5.40 to $124.00. BHP closed $1.70 lower at $34.80.
Late selling pushes ST Index down after earlier recovery
Bargain hunting aids post-lunch rebound but STI ends lower as traders close positions
BY GOH ENG YEOW, Markets Correspondent
19 January 2008
IF INVESTORS’ nerves were not shot before trading started yesterday, they surely were by the closing bell, after an afternoon rebound took the sting out of a heart-thumping plunge in the morning.
The roller-coaster ride took the Straits Times Index (STI) on a 103-point swing as blue chips first lost most of their spectacular Thursday gains and then clawed much of them back again.
“The stock market was initially savaged by a knee-jerk selldown, following by a knee-jerk selldown, following sharp losses on Wall Street,” said a dealer yesterday.
But then, in an amazing turnaround, markets across Asia made a spectacular recovering on hopes that the United States would take drastic action to ward off a recession.
This enabled the STI to jump 30 points after lunch, with bargain-hunters back in force to snap up badly oversold blue chips such as DBS Group Holdings and United Overseas Bank.
The STI almost recovered to Thursday’s close of 3,139.88 but ended 35.63 points down at 3,104.25, on a late spate of selling as traders closed their positions before the weekend.
Overall trading volumes were also boosted by the volatility and slightly berserk atmosphere in the market these days, with a hefty 2.07 billion shares worth $2.32 billion changing hands yesterday.
The recovery was more dramatic elsewhere. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both lost over 3 per cent early on but still closed in the black.
“Share prices have fallen to attractive valuations. So for the second day, we are seeing traders buying stocks like hot cakes, worried that they may miss out on any rally which accompanies the anticipated Fed rate cut,” said a remisier.
Funds snapped up blue chips whenever the STI fell close to 3,000 points, underlining the strong support the benchmark index has been finding at this level.
“Traders are getting a roller-coaster ride, as the STI gyrates between 3,000 and 3,150. They buy when it falls to the 3,000 to 3,050 level, and sell when it hits 3,130 to 3,150,” noted AmFraser Securities senor vice-president of research Najeeb Jarhom.
The wild swings unsettled Singapore Exchange, which closed 28 cents down at $9.55, after falling to an intra-day low of $9.11. Banking giant DBS halved its loss, recovering from a morning low of $18.32 to end 46 cents down at $18.68.
Shipbuilders also clawed back part of their morning losses.
Traders were reacting to a note by Credit Suisse that explained why the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks commodities shipping costs, has fallen 37 per cent since last November. Investors feared the diving index might be a signal that the booming global commodities trade was slowing and could thus affect demand for new ships.
But Credit Suisse felt that demand for shipping had not been reduced, but had been merely delayed by the protracted negotiations between China and Brazil.
This had caused 50 shipments of iron ore earmarked for China to be cancelled. “When negotiations are concluded, we could see a strong rebound in the Baltic Dry Index, given the current tightness in the shipping market,” it added.
Cosco Corp closed nine cents down at $4.85, after sinking to $4.64 at one point. Yangzijiang closed six cents down at $1.48, after falling to as low as $1.43.
Friedman Unit First NLC Financial Files Bankruptcy
18 January 2008
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc. subprime mortgage subsidiary First NLC Financial Services LLC sought bankruptcy protection, becoming the latest casualty of the deteriorating U.S. housing market.
The unit of the Arlington, Virginia-based investment bank listed debt of between $50 million and $100 million and assets of between $10 million and $50 million in Chapter 11 documents filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Friedman said Jan. 11 that it would put the unit into bankruptcy as the parent no longer expected to recover the remaining $12 million it had invested in Boca Raton, Florida- based First NLC. The unit joins more than 100 subprime mortgage specialists that sold, closed or filed for bankruptcy in 2007 as foreclosures reached a record high in the third quarter.
Friedman said in its Jan. 11 announcement that it will liquidate the business through a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, continuing a plan to sell off the business. In July, it sold most of the unit to buyout firm Sun Capital Partners Inc., as the two together injected $75 million to revive the subsidiary.
Friedman kept a 20 percent stake that would help it participate in a recovery in the mortgage industry, the company said at the time. First NLC, founded in 1987, originated more than $7.4 billion in mortgage loans in 2006.
Friedman lost $18 million from the sale of mortgage loans in the fourth quarter, and said in December it planned to write down $20 million in loans. It also took a loss of $215 million in the third quarter in connection with the sale of First NLC.
The twenty largest unsecured creditors are owed $15.3 million. The three biggest unsecured creditors listed in court documents are Goldman Sachs Mortgage Co., owed $5 million; HSBC Mortgage Services, owed $3 million; and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., owed $2.1 million.
Bracing for the crunch of a world economic recession
INSIGHT DOWN SOUTH By SIAH CHIANG NEE
January 19, 2008
The pulse of the Singaporean consumer is weakening, hammered as he is on both sides – a painful stock market fall and the highest inflation in 25 years.
IT'S the sale of the year, so says the salesman shouting over a hailer at a suburban mall: “LCD TV sets for only S$990 (RM2,270) each cash-and-carry, usual price S$1,350 (RM3,100).”
“Promotion only for three days,” proclaimed an overhead banner.
Elsewhere, shops were promoting cheaper computers (tabletop for S$999, or RM2,290) as well as branded clothes, cameras, jewellery and other luxury goods to catch the pre-Lunar New Year shoppers.
Even prostitutes, many of them from China, are offering special “discounts” to make as much money as possible from the Lunar New Year crowds in Chinatown, a newspaper reported.
According to Shin Ming Daily, they are charging customers S$50 (RM115) instead of the usual S$70-S$80 (RM160-RM180).
My letterbox is stuffed with more brochures than I can count, screaming offers for products ranging from cosmetics to canned abalone, from post-holiday tours to gym equipment.
This pre-festival sale is nothing unusual. This year, however, as the city gears for a downturn, there is a greater degree of urgency over previous occasions.
The pulse of the Singaporean consumer is getting weaker as he gets sandwiched between two evils – a painful stock market fall and the highest inflation in 25 years.
His biggest concern, however, is the prospect of a world economic recession.
The statistics show what could be the start of a trend regarding Singaporeans’ greatest addiction: shopping. In November, the retail index unexpectedly fell by 0.3% after a gain of 3.8% in the previous month.
“Many businessmen see the coming festival as the last chance to sell their products before trouble hits,” a stockbroker said.
“After that, a consumer lull is likely to settle in.”
Sales of cars and high-end property have begun to fall, not to mention share values. The latest involves taxis.
In a spontaneous reaction to the official fare increases that many drivers opposed, many customers have abandoned taxis for public transport.
Last week, at the Singapore General Hospital, I saw so many empty cabs cruising for passengers that they were contributing to the traffic jam.
A pall of gloom has descended on this city over the big sharp stock market sell-off and the feared global recession.
“I fear for the consequences. Tens of thousands of people, from the super-rich to heartland retirees, have suffered losses,” said a remisier who has seen many financial storms in the last 30 years.
The punters include workers, housewives and university students, who had been attracted by last year’s market boom.
Some are now facing bankruptcy because of the forced sale of their devalued shares, which were bought on borrowed money.
In an uneasy environment the biggest risks are in luxury goods, which have had a good run in recent years.
“People are already buying less, and fewer are eating in restaurants,” the remisier noted.
This pessimism is in contrast to the relative exuberance of a strong economy over the past four years. That momentum was still evident until recent weeks.
It is also contrary to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew’s expression of confidence that Singapore will emerge stronger in the next five years whether or not there is a downturn in the United States and Europe.
Lee said Singapore would be “at a different plateau” by 2012.
“The old Singapore, we are leaving behind,” he said.
Many feel that while last year’s 7% growth (this year’s projection: 5% or less) was great news for the nation, the benefit to the people could have been much less than thought possible.
Already hit by inflation, many are now struggling with stock losses that could take years to resolve.
“My hands are cold and my heart pounds every time I read news from Wall Street and see my stocks plunging by the minute,” said an investor who has lost S$150,000 (RM344,000) in just one month.
The main stock index has fallen 20% in just two months.
Slowly, Singaporeans are getting used to living with a global economy and with the realisation that a strong GDP does not immediately mean strong earnings for workers.
Another is that irrespective of sound local fundamentals, the republic can be dragged down by a banking crisis half a world away.
“Asians are paying the price of overspending and over-borrowing by Americans; and with no say on the matter,” a Chinese-language teacher lamented.
Apart from the all-embracing government policies, the property and stock markets are factors that most affect Singaporean lives – and both face poor prospects in the coming year. (Malaysians are the second-biggest foreign buyers of property here.)
Economists who have seen all this before say they will recover and move higher, but while it lasts the ripples will be widely felt on people’s jobs, incomes and spending.
Last year, property prices shot up by a dramatic 27%, with more than 14,800 new private homes sold – or 1,200 a month.
In December, however, only 305 deals were done.
For the tens of thousands of troubled families, the immediate crisis is managing losses in the stock market.
In a Channel News Asia online survey involving 27 traders:
> Almost half (47%) declared they had lost up to S$50,000 (RM115,000);
> Some 14% admitted to losing S$50,000-S$150,000 (RM115,000-RM344,000); and,
> Three persons said they had lost more than S$1mil (RM2.3mil).
The chat site reflects many of the painful individual – and family – woes, with workers losing an equivalent of several months to a few years of their salary.
One said the recent crash would result in him working for 10 months without pay to clear his debts.
“I don’t know how to tell my wife. She may divorce me,” he moaned.
Forcing Riadys’ Hands/Implications For Broad Market
• Al Futtaim of Dubai has launched a voluntary conditional offer for Robinson’s at $6.25 cash per share, conditional on it getting >50% of the Singapore oldest retailer.
• Three major minority shareholders of Robinson’s have given an irrevocable undertaking to accept the offer. They are:
- Silchester Int’l, with 9,719,007 shares or 11.31%;
- Aberdeen Asset with 7,518,040 shares or 8.75%; and
- Tecity with 2,687,046 shares or 3.13%.
• The Riadys, through Auric Pacific, seized control of Robinson’s without having to launch a general offer, buying 25,705,481 shares or 29.91% stake from OCBC/GE Life in 2006.
In the event of a higher counter-bid, Al Futtaim will share the difference with the 3 shareholders.
COMMENTS
1. Al Futtaim’s offer is generous, coming in at 41% premium over Robinson’s undisturbed price, and 133% above the latest book NTA of $2.68 per share.
2. The question is will the Riadys accept. Note their $7.90 entry is equivalent to $6.47 today after adjusting for the dividends, including the special $1.00 per share in 2006, amounting to $1.43 per share, before the ousting of Michael Wong, the former Chairman of Robinson’s.
3. They are therefore unlikely to accept Al Futtaim’s offer.
4. Note that Robinson’s is a stock with many individual shareholders:
- Top 20 (including OCBC/GE Life’s shares) jointly own 57,725,097 shares or 67.17%, ie
- 4,486 shareholders, many of whom have been shareholders for years and years, jointly own the balance of 28,212,397 shares or 32.83%.
5. In view of the general market weakness, Al Futtaim may well succeed in getting acceptance in respect of at least 23.05 mln shares or 57% of the shares not held by the Riadys and the 3 shareholders mentioned above (ie excluding OCBC/GE Life which still have a combined 5.2 mln shares or 6.05%), to make the offer unconditional.
6. Upon which, we would expect the Riadys to then hand in their shares, since there is little point in being “locked in” with a <30% stake.
7. Given our views all along, we would be inclined to accept Al Futtaim’s offer. Like all general offers, it is however better to wait for the formal offer document, to get a better understanding of the Arabs’ plans for the retailer, and also the advice of independent advisors.
8. Perhaps just as important, the offer for Robinson’s is the third takeover offer in Singapore since the start of the year. What is important is that the offer prices for Ascott, Straits Trading and Robinson’s, all established names, are at generous premiums to their last traded prices and all near their peak market prices (quite unlike the M&As in 2007), suggesting offerors recognize the value of their respective targets, and are prepared to pay up.
Nikkei down more than 3 pct to two-year closing low
TOKYO, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average ended Monday down 3.9 percent at its lowest close since Oct 2005, battered by selling of bank shares and investor dumping of blue-chip shares on disappointment at a U.S. economic stimulus proposal.
Advantest (6857.T) and other chip-related shares continued to fare poorly, while Softbank Corp (9984.T) extended its losses after Japan's third-largest wireless carrier said it would unveil a new service, including a new fee system, later in the day. The benchmark Nikkei .N225 closed at 13,325.94 after shedding 535.35 points. It was its lowest close since Oct. 25, 2005. The broader TOPIX fell 3.56 percent to 1,293.74.
Maybe it will finally teach Americans how to compete globally.
By Daniel Gross 16 January 2008
A recession may be upon us, which would mean fewer jobs, declining tax revenues, and sinking consumer confidence.
But for some (congenital Bush-bashers, the Irvine Housing Blog, critics of rampant consumerism), the parade of bad news is an occasion for schadenfreude. They enjoy seeing inhabitants of the formerly high-flying sectors that got us into the mess—real estate and Wall Street—being laid low. Others hold out hope that a recession will iron out distortions in the housing market, thus allowing them to move into previously unaffordable neighborhoods. Some econo-fretters hold out hope that reduced imports and the weaker dollar—both likely byproducts of a recession—will help close the trade deficit. And a few killjoys believe recessions can be morally uplifting. "High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life," as Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon put it in the disastrous aftermath of the 1929 crash and ensuing Depression. Not for him stimulus packages and enhanced unemployment benefits. "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate." (Thanks in part to such comments, voters liquidated Republicans for a generation.)
Given this legacy, arguing that something good could come out of a recession would seem as cockeyed as, say, arguing that good things come from bubbles. But in this instance, if you delve deeply into the black economic clouds, it might be possible to detect a lining that looks a little like silver.
Lets assume for the next 500 words or so that we're in a recession. This is an odd moment in the global economy. In the past, a U.S. recession would have been really bad news for our trading partners. (When America sneezes, the world catches a cold.) This time around, it's likely to be marginally bad news. A recession will take a bite out of China's growth, but just a bite. Around the world, things are going gangbusters. In 2006, 104 countries grew at more than 5 percent, and most kept up that pace in 2007. None of the world's other major economies (save perhaps Japan) is in imminent danger of shrinking.
The juxtaposition of a shrinking U.S. economy with a continuing global boom should function as a wake-up call. Yes, we matter. But we don't matter nearly as much as we used to. Between 2000 and 2006, according to Goldman Sachs, America's share of global GDP fell from 31 percent to 27.7 percent. Last year, with the pace of U.S. economic growth lagging that of the world, the slippage continued. In January 2001, the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ accounted for 48.4 percent of the globe's stock market capitalization. In December 2007, by my calculation of data from the World Federation of Stock Exchanges, that proportion had fallen to 31.4 percent.
The world is running away from us. The volume of global trade in merchandise has been increasing rapidly. And it's not just the United States importing goods from China. It's China importing natural resources from everywhere and building infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa, sub-Saharan Africa buying oil from the Persian Gulf, Dubai investors purchasing Indian real estate, Indian builders buying German engineering products and services, and German engineers buying toys made in China. With each passing day, an increasing number of transactions in the global marketplace do not involve the United States. We're still a powerful engine. But the world's economy now has a set of auxiliary motors.
All of which means that American companies, entrepreneurs, middle managers, and MBA students need to become more global—or perhaps change the definition of what global means. Sure, large American companies like McDonald's and Coca-Cola already derive well over half their revenues from overseas. And blue-chip firms that have been focused on the domestic markets are rushing to establish overseas presences, from Starbucks to the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. According to Standard & Poor's, in fiscal 2006, the typical member of the S&P 500 notched 44.2 percent of sales outside the United States. That's impressive. But it's not good enough. That means, for example, that the typical huge American firm still relies on the United States—which is about one-quarter of the global economy—for most of its sales. And when the single market you rely on for most of your revenues ceases to grow, business very quickly devolves into a zero-sum game with your domestic and international competitors.
The percentage of American executives with overseas experience and foreign-language skills is minuscule, which is one of the reasons gigantic U.S. firms are increasingly hiring CEOs who hail from abroad. Vikram Pandit, the new chief executive officer of Citigroup, is the latest example. And plenty of companies are still wedded to a strategy that relies almost exclusively on selling products and services to American customers. Chrysler sells 90 percent of its cars in the United States. In today's economy, especially with U.S. consumer demand shrinking, that's simply not good enough.
The characterization of Americans as nativists incapable of dealing with foreigners is a caricature. But compared with the growing ranks of sophisticated, well-capitalized competitors in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, many American companies simply haven't committed to being aggressive players in the global economy. Which is why this odd recession could function as a wake-up call for Americans to get passports, buy some Berlitz tapes, and start thinking of foreign markets not simply as a place to source cheap goods or raise expensive capital, but as the new home market.
Chip Eng Seng awarded S$188 million contract to build HDB housing in Queenstown
21 January 2008 - Chip Eng Seng Contractors (1988) Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of SGX-ST mainboard listed Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd, has been awarded a contract worth S$188 million by the Housing & Development Board for the construction of 1,394 dwelling units at Queenstown. The contract also includes the construction of a multi-storey carpark, linkbridges, a roof garden, an education centre and other facilities. Building works are expected to begin in February 2008 and to complete by 2011.
This is Chip Eng Seng’s first construction contract won for 2008. With construction demand on the rise, Chip Eng Seng expects its construction division to be busy with tenders and construction work this year. “After many lack lustre years, an up turn in the construction industry is in view. We are very positive about our prospects for 2008”, said Mr Lim Tiam Seng, Executive Chairman, Chip Eng Seng.
As at June 2007, Chip Eng Seng has a construction order book of about S$590 million that will take the group through to 2011. The company is undertaking two other HDB housing projects, one in Sembawang and the other is the Pinnacle @ Duxton, which features seven 50-storey residential blocks with skybridges, communal and commercial facilities. When completed, Pinnacle @ Duxton will be the tallest public housing in Singapore.
Asian Markets Extend Losses Amid Worries That US Is Headed for Recession
TOKYO (AP) -- Global stock markets extended their shakeout into a second day Tuesday, plunging amid worries that a possible U.S. recession will cause a worldwide economic slowdown. The dramatic declines were expected to spread to Wall Street, where stock index futures were already down sharply hours before the trading day began.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index, the benchmark for Asia's biggest bourse, skidded 4.4 percent in morning trading to 12,738.31 points, after dropping 3.9 percent Monday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 5.2 percent after plunging 5.5 percent the day before.
"Unless we get some positive 'shock effects,' such as drastic measures from the U.S. government, there is almost no hope for a recovery in stocks," said Koji Takeuchi, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo.
U.S. markets were closed Monday for a holiday commemorating civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. But Wall Street future prices were down sharply, portending a plunge when trading begins at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time.
Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 436 points, or 3.6 percent, at 11,670, while Standard & Poor's 500 futures were down 57.1 points, or 4.3 percent, at 1,268.
Markets have been plunging amid pessimism about the ability of the U.S. government to prevent a recession. The Federal Reserve has indicated it will lower interest rates further, and President Bush has proposed an economic stimulus package that includes $145 billion in tax cuts, but investors around the world are doubtful that the measures will lift the economy quickly.
The U.S. economy has been battered by a slump in the housing market and a credit crisis that has led to billions of dollars of losses among major U.S. banks.
In Europe Monday, investors also dumped stocks, sending the Britain's benchmark FTSE-100 down 5.5 percent and France's CAC-40 Index sliding 6.8 percent. Germany's blue-chip DAX 30 plunged 7.2 percent to 6,790.19.
Takeuchi said investors feel that the selloff is spreading worldwide, setting off fears of a global downturn. Risks of economic contraction have been growing in Japan as both exports and consumer spending are weakening, he said.
Kirby Daley, strategist at Newedge Group, said the Nikkei could shed another 10 percent to 15 percent to the 11,000 level in the next few months. Japanese companies depend on exports and capital investments to keep up profits, and both are endangered if there is a U.S. slowdown, he said.
"The argument that valuations are cheap for Japanese stocks is flawed," Daley said. "The basis for those earnings valuations doesn't consider ongoing problems in the U.S. economy, which are likely to get worse."
Even usually upbeat Japanese Economy Minister Hiroko Ota acknowledged that downsides risks are growing, given the volatile markets and surging oil prices.
"The economy keeps recovering as recent production data show, but downside risks are growing these days," Ota told reporters.
Chinese Bank Shares Fall Sharply on Reports Lenders Facing Possible Subprime Writedowns
BEIJING (AP) -- Shares in China's banks fell sharply Monday after news reports said its No. 2 lender, Bank of China, might write down holdings of U.S. mortgage securities and two others increased reserves for possible losses.
The reports were the first indication that Chinese lenders, which have so far avoided damage from the U.S. credit crisis, might face problems due to their holdings of subprime securities.
Also Monday, China's banking regulator warned that lenders might face risks from fluctuations in fast-rising real estate prices.
Bank of China is expected to announce a "significant writedown" on its $7.95 billion in U.S. subprime mortgage securities, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post newspaper reported, citing unidentified sources.
Bank of China spokesman Wang Jianping declined to comment. He said the bank would release details of its assets in late March when it announces annual earnings.
Bank of China shares fell 4.1 percent in Shanghai market and by 6.4 percent in Hong Kong. China's biggest banks are listed in both cities, with shares in Shanghai off-limits to most foreign investors, while Hong Kong is open to global traders.
The fall in bank stocks helped to drive overall market declines in both cities, with Shanghai's main index sinking 5.1 percent and Hong Kong plunging 5.5 percent -- its biggest percentage drop since 2001.
"The subprime woes in the U.S. have raised concerns at home about risks in the domestic mortgage market and prompted selling in banking and real estate companies," said Wang Junqing, an analyst at Guosen Securities in Shanghai.
Bank of China, China's biggest owner of subprime mortgage securities, said in October they were 3.05 percent of its total holdings. The bank said it had set aside $473 million for potential writedowns.
Bank of China reported profits of 15.9 billion yuan ($2.12 billion) for the July-September quarter, up 23 percent from the same period of 2006. It says it has more than 5.8 trillion yuan ($775 billion) in assets.
Two other major lenders, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, are increasing reserves for possible writedowns on subprime mortgage holdings, the respected Chinese business magazine Caijing reported.
ICBC, China's biggest commercial lender, raised reserves to cover 30 percent of its subprime holdings, while Construction Bank's reserves covered 40 percent of its holdings, the magazine said, without citing sources.
The two banks' subprime holdings are much smaller than those of Bank of China, at about $1 billion each, and writedowns should not affect their profits, the magazine said.
Phone calls on Monday to the press and investor relations offices at both ICBC and Construction Bank were not answered.
ICBC shares fell by 7.8 percent in Hong Kong and 3.8 percent in Shanghai, while Construction Bank was down 6.4 percent in Shanghai and 4.1 percent in Hong Kong.
China's banks have seen revenues and profits soar in recent years, driven by a fast-growing economy and rising real estate prices.
But the country's industry regulator warned in a report released Monday that they might face higher risks from fluctuating real estate prices and financial conditions.
"Property market price fluctuation possibly could increase credit risks facing the banking industry," said Jiang Dingzhi, vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in a report on the agency's Web site.
Jiang gave no details but called on banks to improve risk management.
Chinese regulators have raised interest rates repeatedly over the past year and tightened lending standards in an effort to cool a boom in investment in real estate and other assets. They have warned repeatedly that runaway spending could lead to a debt crisis if investors in ill-conceived plans default on loans.
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美國1987年股災
一、股災與股票指數期貨
二戰後，美國經濟實力大大增強，各類投資活動十分活躍，證券市場進入了繁榮階段。股票指數在20世紀5 0年代大幅度上升，1966年達到了一個高峰，道瓊斯工業平均指數接近1000點。此後一段時間，股價一直 處於波動狀態。1974年由於發生了石油危機，美國物價暴漲，通貨膨脹嚴重。當時又發生了"水門事件"，政 治危機與經濟危機的雙重打擊使美國股票暴跌。道瓊斯工業平均指數從1973年1月的最高點1016點下跌到 1974年底的557點，紐約股票交易所市值下跌了40%。80年代初期，股票價格開始回升，1982年1 0月21日達到1036點，突破了近十年前的高點，11月3日達到1065點，創戰後最高記錄。從此股票指 數持續五年上漲，到1986年12月達到1896點，比1982年上升了78%。
進入1987年，股票漲勢更猛。8月份道瓊斯工業指數達到2722點。與此同時，美國的貿易赤字和財政 赤字也在驚人地增長。1985年，相隔71年後美國再度成為凈債務國，負債1075億美元，成為世界頭號債 務國。1986年對外債務進一步增加。這一切對不斷升溫的股市帶來了陰影。
1985年秋後不久，七國財長在華盛頓聚會。貝克財長再次敦促工業國的夥伴在削減美國貿易赤字上助一臂 之力，但日本、當時的西德等國家未予支援。華爾街已經在這些因素下開始大幅波動。10月14日，美國政府公 佈了8月份商品貿易赤字為157億美元，高出金融界估計15億美元。外匯市場上美元被紛紛拋售。同一天，道 瓊斯指數下跌了95點，10月16日再跌108點。10月18日早晨，貝克財長在美國電視節目中宣佈：如果 聯邦德國不降低利率，美國將考慮讓美元繼續下跌。各種壞消息的接踵而至，在人們心理上籠罩了一 層陰影。
10月19日，華爾街爆發了歷史上最大的一次股票崩潰。早晨9點10分，開盤鐘聲響後，道瓊斯指數在螢 幕上一開始顯示就已經下跌了67點，賣出指令像排浪一樣湧來。開盤不到一小時，指數已下跌104點。由於指 令數量太大，計算顯示落後實際交易20分鐘，從開盤到11點，道指直線下跌，下午兩點，跌250點。兩小時 後收盤，道瓊斯股票指數下跌了508點，由2246.74點狂跌到1738.74點，跌幅達22.6%，市 值損失5030億美元。當天CME的S&P500指數期貨市場上，拋壓更為嚴重。12月份合約暴跌80.7 5點，以201.5點收盤，跌幅達28.6%。
危機發生後，銀行一般會限制向證券公司的貸款，這可能導致其中一些公司違約並加重危機。美聯儲迅速決定 提供一切必要的資金信貸，這對於避免危機擴散起到了關鍵的作用。當時芝加哥交易所通過四家結算銀行追加保證 金。由於保證金出乎意料的巨大，結算銀行不願認可會員公司向結算所的支付，他們要求從紐約的銀行實際收到資 金。同時紐約的銀行聽說了其客戶的負債傳聞而且沒有什麼時間來具體了解頭寸到底有多大。緊要關頭紐約聯儲官 員打電話告訴紐約的城市銀行要求其確保給結算所會員提供必要的資金信貸，最後化險為夷。據時任CME主席的 利奧.梅拉梅德回憶，10月19日多頭浮動虧損為25.3億美元(平時一般水準為1.2億美元)，需要追加 保證金。其中，交易所(作為交易第三方)欠高盛6.7億美元，欠Kidder Peabody9.17億美元；另一方面，摩根斯坦利公司(Morgan Stanley)欠交易所10億美元。當時交易所並不擔心摩根斯坦利能否支付，而是擔心能否在第二天早晨7 ：20以前支付。早上7：00電話打給芝加哥大陸銀行負責CME賬戶的負責人Wilma J.Smelcer,Melamed被告知還短缺4億美元。Melamed隨後在電話中要求Smelcer 擔保餘額將到位，也就是要求大陸銀行在紐約銀行資金還沒有到位的時候提供4億美元信貸。正在這時，大陸銀行 董事長Tom Theobald到了銀行，經過幾分鐘的磋商，銀行同意放款，此時是早上7：17分，還有3分鐘CME就要 開市。如果資金不到位，那麼CME不能開市，外界就會猜測有一家機構出現了問題，在當時的市場情況下後果不 堪設想。實際上，Morgan Stanley的資金20分鐘後到達大陸銀行。
事後美國政府成立了以財政部佈雷迪為首的總統工作小組，對這次股災進行了反思，于1988年寫成了《佈 雷迪報告》。這次股票崩潰不僅震動了美國，也震動了整個金融世界，並在全世界股票市場引起連鎖反映，各地市 場也先後發生恐慌性拋售，其中尤以香港市場停市四天最為嚴重。
香港股市從1984年開始走出熊市，步入牛市。1983年底恒生指數為874.94點，之後連續上升， 到1986年9月首次突破2000點。同年5月，恒生指數期貨合約推出，引起投資者和期貨經紀商的濃厚興趣 ，成交量迅速增長。1987年股市進一步升溫，6月6日首次突破3000點。10月1日達到最高點3950 點。但沒過幾天，市況急轉直下。10月19日星期一，香港股市、期貨市場一開市就受前幾日，特別是上週五美 國紐約股市大下跌的劇烈衝擊，當天恒生指數下跌420.81點，跌幅達11.1%，同時恒生指數期貨10月 合約下跌361點，其他合約也全部下跌。19日美國股市崩潰，20日早晨香港聯合交易所董事局宣佈停市4天 (10月20-23日)。結果大批期貨經紀不能履約。24日銀行公會宣佈減息，希望能夠使投資者恢復信心。25曰晚財政司 宣佈以期貨市場的主要經紀商及香港期貨公司股東提供的10億港元，加上外匯基金中提取的10億共計20億港 元，作為備用貸款，支援香港期貨保證有限公司，拯救期貨市場。10月26日開市，即出現了猛烈拋盤，當天恒 生指數大跌1120.70點，以2395點收市，跌幅達33%。恒生指數期貨10月合約大跌1554點，創 歷史跌幅最大記錄。27日財政司宣佈由外匯基金撥款10億港元，連同中國銀行、匯豐銀行、渣打銀行再貸款1 0億港元共20億港元備用貸款，併發動香港大財團聯手救市，才勉強保證市場生存。
在這次襲擊全球的股災中，惟獨香港停市四天，嚴重損害了香港作為金融中心的聲譽。很多投資者爆倉出場， 更為嚴重的是極大打擊了海外基金對香港市場投資的信心，使股市、期貨市場長期低迷。此次大動蕩暴露了香港不 少問題，為了總結這次股災中股市管理上的經驗教訓，當時的港英當局成立了"證券檢討委員會"，負責對香港股 票和期貨市場的組織、活動和運行進行監督，並寫成了《戴維森報告》(因報告起草人之一為Ian Hay Davison而得名)。
美國1987年股災
二、《佈雷迪報告》和《戴維森報告》
《佈雷迪報告》(Brady,1988)
報告的主要內容是，1987年10月的股市崩潰主要是由指數套利(一般設計為程式交易)和組合保險這兩 類交易在股票指數期貨和現貨市場相繼推動而造成的。為了避免股票下跌的風險，幾家機構交易商在期貨市場賣出 股票指數期貨合約進行組合保險，導致股票指數期貨合約下跌。由於期貨價格下跌，期貨價格與現貨價格之間偏離 了正常的比價關係，於是指數套利者入市，買入期貨同時在股票市場拋出股票，導致股票現貨價格下跌。而股票價 格下跌刺激了更多的組合保險交易，又引起新一輪股票指數期貨拋盤，如此迴圈最終導致股市崩潰。事實上，組合 保險當天佔了S&P500指數期貨拋壓的16.7%。9點半到10點，僅佔當時交易總額的5.6%，從10 點半到11點發展到32%，12點到下午1點則為25%。另外指數套利在現貨市場的賣出量為3760萬股( 全天成交總額為6億股左右)，其中940萬股是賣空。
但事後分析，該報告將股災原因歸結于期貨市場的看法並不符合事實，甚至被部分人指責為是對股票市場穩定 的威脅(Culp,1988).其主要問題是對於期貨市場在維持市場機制下的財務完整性作用認識不清。特別 是報告忽略了CME作為NYSE的一個重要的風險管理工具。儘管對於組合保險與指數套利的過程分析並沒有錯 ，但其結論卻錯了。報告將期貨和現貨兩個市場聯繫起來，並且認為是一個市場領導另一個市場下跌，由此提出了 一些改進措施。
關於保證金要求的措施可能是報告最嚴重的錯誤。報告建議將期貨和現貨的保證金水準拉到一致水準。報告認 為應當通過提高期貨市場的保證金來減少期貨市場的投機，並且限制個人投資者在期貨市場的杠桿比例。事實上， 期貨保證金和股票市場的信用保證金是性質完全不同的兩碼事。股票市場的信用保證金代表了一定百分比的實際股 權，而期貨保證金只是衍生市場的價格保證機制。一些人批評CME的保證金水準太低，但在許多方面其實CME 比NYSE還要嚴格。CME的維持保證金機制，保證了投資者在所有時間都有足夠的資本，而和人們表面看到的 股票保證金比期貨保證金高相反，NYSE允許一些情況下可以不付保證金，如大單交易和套利，使得其實際的保 證金水準經常低於CME的水準。進一步，NYSE實行的是五天交割制，而CME是24小時結算。CME並不 延長信用期。黑色星期一，CME實際收到的保證金是26億美元左右(平市為1億美元左右)，保證了週二開盤 的流動性。CME的調查委員會解釋道："所有的追加保證金都到位，沒有結算會員違約，因此沒有客戶資金因財 務不完整而受損。"而且CME當天還有兩次日內追加保證金，一小時內投資者就把資金到位。真正的疑問來自紐 約股票交易所，投資者在大跌後五天是否還有足夠的資金，正是由於這個結算上的延遲導致了10月20曰開盤時 出現了一些問題
報告對與期貨市場投機的作用也是認識不清的。與通常認為投機就是隨意賭博不同，期貨市場的投機實際是短 期投資，投機者在市場低迷的時候提供了買方，在市場高漲的時候提供了賣方。沒有投機者，長期投資就幾乎不可 能了。因為有了投機，長期投資者才能對風險進行保值，因此延伸了整個市場並防止了指令的不平衡。為了建立一 個良好的市場，買方和賣方都需要存在。如果按照報告建議提高期貨保證金，那麼期貨市場的許多投機活動會消失 。而10月19日，CME的投機者為市場的穩定提供了重要的作用。在賣壓沉重的時候，是自營投機商在買入期 貨合約。而在紐約，做市商(專業會員)找不到買家被認為是股價下跌的一個原因。一些NYSE的做市商在黑色 星期一是作為凈賣出方而不是凈買入方出現的。在NYSE的風險管理機制失靈的時候，CME的投機卻發生了作 用，成功地吸引了賣壓。據估計，10月19日CME吸收了約27000張闔約拋盤，如果傳回紐約，將代表8 500萬股股票，相當於當日總成交量的14%。報告沒有認識到的是讓自律組織來代表政府設置保證金將有助於 將投機留在市場。因為通過自律組織來定保證金，將使得自律組織會員的資產處於風險之中，害怕市場失靈將使得 投資者堅持要求足夠的維持保證金，但這些保證金應當隨市場波動而定。由於投資者直接參與市場而政府不參與， 因此以市場為基礎的保證金要求遠比其府規定有效。S&P%500期貨市場的存在表明有巨大的市場需求，如果 按報告建議成功地壓制了期貨市場地風險管理功能，對風險管理地需求仍然存在，例如投資者可以到海外市場進行 保值。如果美國地期貨市場對投機者不再開放，那麼市場需要將輸出，這無益於美國股票市場地穩定 。
報告提出了"斷路器"措施以阻止另一次股災。這個想法的不切實際在隨後的香港市場顯現出來。香港股市關 閉並沒有"穩定"市場，相反加劇了恐慌。報告建議的"斷路器"是對市場加以價格限制。對於CME來說，這可 能是個嚴重的錯誤。因此CME的本質是讓投資者決定價格。期貨市場是價格發現的場所，是資訊發生器。價格是 市場的結果而不是原因，對價格進行限制是治標而不是治本。另外，價格限制延遲了市場的運動。如果認為價格限 制可以阻止不可避免的事情發生，那是太天真了。沒有價格的限制，市場可以以最快的速度達到其"終點"。期貨 市場的一個目的是發現價格，對投資者來說知道價格越快越好。讓市場以最快的速度達到其終點會帶來"暫時的恐 慌"，如黑色星期一一樣，但這會減輕延遲的恐慌帶來的更嚴重的問題，如同中國香港地區一樣，或者更廣一些的 尺度象大蕭條一樣。一旦價格已經被確定下來，投資者可以看到的價格進行交易，而不是猜測市場會走到什麼地方 。有一些人的觀點是10月份的暴跌不過是市場的自我調節。市場跑到了其能力的前面，市場下跌是重新確定它的 能力毫無疑問，市場需要創造一種防止市場飆升的保護系統，但《佈雷迪報告》的建議並沒有提供合理的答案。答 案來自私有部門而不是政府。一個主要的問題是公眾對市場的信心。當時投資者害怕市場沒有足夠的流動性，很大 程度上是因缺乏開盤資訊，正是由於缺乏資訊才導致更大的恐慌，為了防止進一步的下跌，機構在不清楚現貨市場 資訊的情況下才在期貨市場進行組合保險。通過對現有系統的升級可以解決很多與投資信心相關的問 題。
《戴維森報告》(Report of the Hong Kong Securities Review Committee,1988.5)
報告認為，儘管中國香港地區整個金融系統本來是以交易所自律為基礎輔之以官方和公正團體的幫助以防止問 題行為，但中國香港地區自我規範和市場自律沒有成功，而且監管部門喪失了有效的控制。在香港聯合交易所，一 個內部人集團將交易所看作是私人俱樂部而非考慮會員、投資者和發行人的公共團體。其監管層領導不力，缺乏必 要的知識和經驗來管理日益發展的證券行業，而且並未完全獨立於董事局。基於24小時迴圈的結算系統未能穩定 運作，並且在日益增加的交易量和國際化驅使下也無力穩定運作。在上市安排方面有嚴重缺點，對會員的監管也很 草率。因此在管理委員會成功的發展了交易所的同時，沒有引入足夠的管理和監管安排，特別是沒有考慮到市場過 熱帶來的風險。
報告認為在香港期貨交易所管理稍好，但也基礎不穩。特別是交易所、結算所和保證公司的三方結構混淆了責 任的界限，無法建立足夠的風險管理體制，而這對於期貨市場是至關重要的。這三方面應當以其行動以對付交易量 擴大和少數投資者持有大量頭寸帶來的風險。
報告認為證券委員會和商品交易委員會也沒有起到應有的作用，而且缺乏方向。港英當局的本來想法是他們應 當獨立並具有權威性，但這一打算沒有執行。本來這兩個機構應當是具有很高權利的監管機構，但近年來卻退化成 被動的應付角色。
報告認為這兩個監管部門領導屢次提出要增加資源以對付飛速發展的市場要求，但遭到港英當局擱置或拒絕。 但僅有的一點資源也主要是用到了文件上而非實在的檢查和監督，而且面臨股票交易所的強硬領導，由於得不到政 府支援，監管部門已經喪失了其應有的作用。
就期貨市場而言，導致崩盤的原因是多方面的。國外股市暴跌的強烈衝擊和影響是主要原因，但其根本原因在 於市場組織、運作、合約設計以及市場風格監督管理等各方面的問題，造成了市場缺乏有效處理風險機制和抵禦風 險的能力。期貨市場風險管理機制本身就有嚴重的缺陷，主要表現在：保證金結算機制既不完善，沒有認真實施有 關每曰結算和保證金方面的有關規定；對財務風險缺乏合理的防範和保障措施，期貨經紀公司及未能及時有效的遏 制來自客戶的風險，事後又無足夠能力承擔市場風險而承擔保證責任。
導致這種缺陷的根源在於其風險管理主體有缺陷。香港期貨市場有期貨交易所、倫敦國際商品結算所香港有限 公司和香港期貨保證有限公司共同組成。其中交易所負責會員入會、執行市場檢查和規定客戶保證金最低標準；結 算所負責每日盈虧計算；保證公司負責對結算會員是否增加保證金做出決定，並制定結算銀行和承擔結算風險。但 由於這三家機構都是獨立的利益主體，在風險處理中的地位與責任模糊不清。
由於當時的香港期貨所實行股份制，通過手續費、會員費和保證金利息獲得收入，因此其關心的是交易量大小 ，手續費的多少，對於風險控制並不十分關心。結算所與交易所只是代為結算，卻未明確結算所作為交易的第三方 介入交易，即買方的賣方，賣方的買方，在財務方面不承擔風險。期貨保證公司有承擔結算風險的責任，卻和結算 所沒有直接聯繫，根本不清楚市場風險。可以想像，如此盲人瞎馬，從根本上割裂保證金、每日結算與風險控制的 關係，削弱了結算機構作為風險控制中心的地位，在風險聚集、市場推動保障時，必然會引發危機。
報告經過總結提出了改進措施：
對兩個交易所的內部組成進行徹底檢查，特別是對於股票交易所，應當有個人和公司會員代表加入董事局，而 且還應該有獨立董事確保交易所為所有會員和使用者的利益服務；
兩個交易所應當有專業的獨立的行政領導班子，而交易所董事局應當決定政策，行政管理層執行政策；股票交 易所結算期延長到3天(T+3)應當嚴格執行，並建立中央結算系統；
建議繼續保留香港期貨交易所和其股票指數期貨合約，但需要將結算和保證系統重組以加強風險管理，特別是 結算所應當成為交易所的一部分，保證應當由結算會員基金支援；
將兩個監管機構和主任辦公室合併成一個城市服務部門之外的獨立的機構；其領導和僱員應當由全職售貨員擔 任，資金由市場中獲得。該機構應當負起保證市場完善和保護資產者的責任，特別是應當確保交易所稱職地管理市 場，並在交易所未能履行義務時有足夠權力進行干涉。
美國1987年股災
三、學者對於1987年股災的看法
10月19日的股災不是由期貨市場引起的，但拋售浪潮同時襲擊了現貨(紐約)和期貨(芝加哥)市場。眾 看到價格下跌首先發生在期貨市場是由於開盤時兩個市場的處理步驟不同。紐約股票交易所由於前夜堆積的巨大賣 單導致許多SP500指數成開盤延遲。因此在10月19日早晨公開發佈的指數計算用的股票價格是前週五收盤 的報價。面CME的期貨價格反映了週一早晨的資訊。
儘管來自組合保險和其他機構的期貨合約賣壓確實有部分通過指數套利傳遞會現貨市場，但CME市場還是是 吸引了相當於8500萬股股票的賣壓。
組合保險的拋盤在10月19日沒有什麼顯著作用。美國和其他國家的股票價格同樣快速下降，其他國家各地 區的組合保險與指數期貨交易遠不如美國來的重要。估計10月19日組合保險的拋盤所代表的拋盤約等於紐約股 票交易所總拋盤的20%-30%，因此這不是一個主導的影響因素。
指數套利程式交易並不對混亂的市場情況負責。事實上，學術研究一致認為沒有找到波動性和程式型交易之間 有什麼關係。BRADY報告認為市場表現最混亂的時候恰恰是兩者之間的套利中斷的時候。
有時候交易所的保證金過程被視為一個潛在的政策工具。例如，Brady報告提議控制對股票的杠桿投資是 必要的，因為可以防止投機過度。但只值得注意的是10月19日這一天，S&500期貨市場經歷了有史以來最 大的跌幅，但沒有因為對手違約導致的交易商虧損，沒有結算所倒閉，沒有期貨經紀公司，未能實現對客戶的義務 。
當然在關鍵的日子裏流動性下降也是一個事實。美國證券市場在處理大筆成交時因個股和指數顯示不準確而經 歷的困難，導致了價格的不確定性，並減少了期貨市場的流動性。一個顯著的特徵是那兩天的買賣價差要高於正常 時候.
有許多表面的證據表明，在1987年10月的股災中期貨價格首先下跌，然後將現貨市場帶低。基差(期貨 價格減現貨價格)比平常要大，而且到10約19日甚至變為負值。但一系列研究表明期貨市場沒有將股票市場帶 低。BAssen,France and Pliska(1989)研究了1987年10月19日週一的MMI期貨分鐘數據。他們發現在交易開頭的一 個半小時內大的負基差主要原始股票指數計算所用的價格是10月16日週五的成就價格。隨後期貨價格領先現貨 價格5-10分鐘，隨著價格的快速移動，這導致了大的負基差。Harris(1989)和Moriarty,Gor don,Kuserk and Wang(1990)研究了股災中的S&500數據，也發現在考慮了陳舊價格因素後大的負基差顯著減少，期 貨價格領先現貨價格幾分鐘。股災中基差多大是因為股票交易中的限制和延遲。
Kleidon and Whaley(1992)進行了更深入的研究，人們普遍認為，10月19日上午11點前大的負基差是由於許 多開盤推遲也就是無交易引起的。問題在於如何解釋在幾乎所有股票都開盤後仍存在大的負基差現象。他們考慮了 兩個關於導致期貨和現貨聯繫中斷的解釋。第一種是Blume,MacKinla and Teker(1989)的觀點。現貨市場特別是S&500成份股，在非常高成交量面前遭到的流動性問題，導 致價格過度下跌。另一種解釋是非SP500成份股反映資訊的速度要慢于SP500成份股。這可能是由於NY SE指令下單系統過度負載導致指令傳遞和執行嚴重延遲。這種延遲對於非SP500成份股來說更為嚴重。在交 易最終執行的時候它們並沒有完全成交時刻應有的資訊。因此價格陳舊不是因為成交價格發生在一些時間之前，而 是因為價格反映的是過時的資訊。利用1987年10月1-5日的五分鐘回報，他們認為，10月19日11點以後的負基差主要是由於陳舊價格，特別是執行指令的物理延 遲導致的，而不是因為市場缺乏流動性。
四、格林斯潘對股指期貨的總結與評價投資論壇:
1988年5月19日，美聯儲主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在美國眾議院對1987年的股災作證，面對電訊與金融委員會主席Edward J. Markey，他談到了對於股票指數期貨等衍生市場的看法：
許多股票衍生產品的批評者所沒有認識到的是，衍生市場發展到如此之大，並不是因為其特殊的推銷手段，而 是因為給衍生產品的使用者提供了經濟價值。這些工具使得養老基金和其他機構投資者可以進行套期保值，並迅速 低成本的調節頭寸，因此在資產組合管理中衍生工具起了重要的作用。"
他還談到為什麼期貨可以告訴眾真相：
"值得注意的是我們經常會看到期貨市場反映新資訊的速度比現貨市場要快。一些人由此認為……期貨價格的 變動必然導致了現貨價格的變動。然而，在期貨市場調節組合頭寸的成本要顯著地低(于現貨市場)，並且可以迅 速地建立新的頭寸。因此，資產組合經理可能自然傾向於在收到新資訊的時候首先在期貨市場交易，導致了期貨市 場的價格首先發生變動。套利活動則確保了現貨市場的價格不會太落後於期貨市場的價格。美國“8 7股災”
1987年10月19日，星期一，華爾街上的紐約股票市場颳起了股票暴跌的風潮，爆發了歷史上最大的一 次崩盤事件。道·瓊斯指數一天之內重挫了508.32點，跌幅達22.6%，創下自1941年以來單日跌幅 最高紀錄。6.5小時之內，紐約股指損失5000億美元，其價值相當於美國全年國民生產總值的 1/8。這次股市暴跌震驚了整個金融世界，並在全世界股票市場產生“多米諾骨牌”效應，倫敦、法蘭克福、東京、 雪梨、香港、新加坡等地股市均受到強烈衝擊，股票跌幅多達10%以上。股市暴跌狂潮再西方各國股民中引起巨 大恐慌，許多百萬富翁一夜之間淪為貧民，數以千計的人精神崩潰，跳樓自殺。
這一天被金融界稱為“黑色星期一”，《紐約時報》稱其為“華爾街歷史上最壞的日子”。
一.“87股災”之前的美國經濟
20世紀50年代後期和整個60年代，是美國經濟發展的“黃金時期”。經濟持續穩定增長，通貨膨脹率和 失業率降低至很低水準。到80年代時，美國股市已經歷了50年的牛市，股票市值從1980年的24720億 美元上升到1986年的59950億美元。自1982年起，股價走勢更是持續上揚，交易量也迅速增加，19 87年日交易量達到18060萬股。股市異常繁榮，其發展速度遠遠超過了實際經濟的增長速度，金融交易的發 展速度大大超過了世界貿易的發展速度。因為股市的高收益性，大量的估計遊資及私人資本源源不斷地流向股市， 這些資金為追求短期利潤而在股市上從事投機交易，造成股市的虛假繁榮。
在這段長達50年的股市繁榮下，也留下了許多陰影。1973年至1975年，以美元為中心的佈雷頓森林 體系瓦解，美國爆發了二戰以來最嚴重的一次經濟危機，致使通貨膨脹率上升，失業率很高。加之當時美蘇開展軍 備競賽，大大小弱了美國的經濟力量，使國際甚至是國內的市場佔有份額也不斷下降，外貿赤字和預算赤字不斷上 升。隨著美國政府對金融市場管制的放鬆和對股票投資的減稅刺激，鉅額的國際遊資涌入美國股票市場，促進了股 價持續高漲。在1987年頭9個月中，僅日本購買美國股票的新增投資就達約150億美元，股票價格已近崩潰 。這些都意味著美國股市將經歷一場大的調整。
事實確實如此。從1987年8月以來，紐約股市即開始出現較大的波動，尤其是10月份的頭兩周股票價格 不斷下降，在10月5日至9日，道·瓊斯工業平均指數就下跌了158.78點，接著第二周又下跌了235. 48點，其中10月16日一天就下跌100多點。人們已開始擔心，1929年的災難又即將來臨了嗎 ？
二.“黑色星期一”
1987年10月19日，星期一，華爾街籠罩在陰雲之中，在急促而沉悶的“當，當，當”鐘聲中，紐約股 票交易所開始了新的一天。開市伊始，一種不祥的預感就襲上了喧器的交易大廳內每個人的心頭：道·瓊斯工業平 均指數開盤，就跌去67個點。轉眼間，賣盤涌起。在蜂擁而至的滾滾拋盤的打壓下，熒屏上盡數翻起綠盤(下跌 )，看不見半點紅浪(上升)。交易所內一片恐慌，起火市場也處於一片混亂之中。從上午9：30直道11點鐘 ，道·瓊斯工業平均指數之下下瀉，沒有人知道應該如何遏制繼續惡化的局勢。雖然也有人提議休市，但無人敢做 決定。紐約股票交易所顧忌到華爾街在全球股市中的“風向標”作用，只得拼命堅持下去。
當芝加哥商業交易所的人士大量賣出指數期貨時，紐約股市也大量拋盤，而買家卻極為匱乏。開盤第一小時內 ，市場上很難找到買家，約佔標準·普爾500指數指標股30%的95隻藍籌股竟然尚未成交，而由於賣單大量 堆積而買單不多，市場價格被迫一再下降以吸引買方。到10時30分，道·瓊斯工業平均指數30隻指標股中有 11隻還沒有開盤交易，而在平時，通常開盤後不到5分鐘的時間裏，就會全部開始交易。由於許多只股票沒有交 易，當時道·瓊斯工業平均指數無法真實反映市場實際價格，整個市場處於無序狀態。交易量不斷被刷新，電腦交 易系統速度減慢，道·瓊斯工業平均指數和標準·普爾500指數的準確數字根本無法計算。
由於股市與期市相互驅動，股價和期指跌落速度越來越快，交易量猛增。從11：00到11：50股市成交 9300萬股，中午期指交易量相當於700萬股，而股市是900萬股。大機構在兩個市場上大量進行交易，將 這場災難推向了頂點。
而紐約股票交易所電腦系統在這一天也幾乎陷入了癱瘓的狀態。紐約股票交易所共有200台微機，這套系統 從未處理過如此巨大的交易。當股票交易數據涌進電腦時，電腦幾乎無法處理。賣單蜂擁而至時，資訊系統處理速 度遠遠滯後。開盤後不到一個鐘頭，由於拋盤數量太大，電腦竟比實際交易速度慢了20分鐘；中午，電腦系統中 的指定指令轉換系統(DOT)慢了約75分鐘。由於DOT系統容量不足，傳送到DOT系統的3.96億股的 交易竟有1.2億股沒有執行。
下午13：09，一則可怕的消息傳到華爾街股市，美國證券交易委員會主席大衛·路德在華盛頓發表講話說 ：“在關鍵時刻，雖然我們不知道這一關鍵時刻會在什麼時候，我將與股票交易所討論暫時關閉交易所。”這則消 息更加引起一陣恐慌。因為交易所一旦關閉，交易商們將來不及拋掉手中的股票，他們的股票將一文不值，成千上 萬的美元將化為灰燼。於是，他們不得不迅速“傾銷股票”。道·瓊斯工業平均指數像著了魔似地狂瀉，到下午兩 點，已經下挫250點，股票換手4億多股，電腦比實際交易速度落後了100分鐘。在此期間，證券交易委員會 的官員出面澄清：他們沒有討論有關關閉交易所的事情。然而為時已晚，災難已無法遏止。
下午14：05，道指上升350點，成功衝過2000點。但此次反彈僅延續了一瞬間功夫，期指市場的反 映基本相同。14：30左右，股價走勢似乎有走好跡象，然後反彈受阻，新一輪下降趨勢在此形成。此時，距收 盤僅剩一個多鐘頭，但就在這短暫而又漫長的一個多鐘頭裏，道·瓊斯工業平均指數在這種仿佛已經凝固了的空氣 中再度下挫250點，換手2億股。直至下午16時整收市，這次跳水才被迫停止。
當天收盤時，道·瓊斯工業平均指數下降了508.32點，由2246.72點狂跌到1738.470點 ，跌幅達22.6%創下了一天下跌的最高紀錄。而股市的其他指數如NYSE綜合價格指數下跌19.2%，A MEX綜合指數下跌12.7%，NASDAQ綜合指數下跌11.35%。相當於法國全年國名生產總值的50 30億美元的股票面值在一天之內化為烏有。
當天，在紐約股票交易所掛牌的1600種股票中，只有52種股票上升，其餘全部下跌。其中1192種股 票跌到52個星期以來的最低水準，而且許多具有代表性的藍籌股也在劫難逃。幾乎所有大公司的股票均狂跌30 %左右，如通用電氣公司下跌33.1%，電報電話公司下跌29.5%，可口可樂公司下36.5%，西屋公司 下跌45.8%，運通公司下跌38.8%，波音公司下跌29.9%。
這一天紐約股票交易所內陰雲密布，氣氛極度緊張。價格變動極快，電話機不夠用，熒光屏上的價格跟不上市 場實際價格。一個交易員說他的熒光屏上顯示道·瓊斯工業平均指數下降3.78點，而實際上這個數字是508 點。平時一天的交易額為1億股左右，而這天為6億股。由於電腦系統運行滯後，約有28%的指令未能執行，其 中包括9200萬限價指令。許多投資者，尤其是中小投資者，直到兩三天后才知道他們的股票沒有賣出。此外受 股票價格變化的影響，美國政府債券市場也是一片混亂。而新聞機構由於電腦的影響，收盤5個半小時後才把股市 的收盤價報道出去。
“一切都失去了控制”，《紐約時報》這樣報道。這一天損失慘重的投資者不計其數，世界首富薩姆·沃爾頓 一天之內股票價值損失21億美元，世界上最年輕的億萬富翁比爾·蓋茨損失39.45億美元，電腦大王王安僅 在19日下午就損失了3100萬美元。許多百萬富翁一夜之間淪為貧民，最苦的是那些靠自己多年積存的血汗請 投資于股票的投資者。受股價暴跌震動，股民的心理變得極為脆弱。因股市暴跌而不堪于債務中亞的許多人，精神 徹底崩潰，自殺的消息不絕於耳。銀行破產，工廠關門，企業大量裁員，人心惶惶。
美國1987年股災
三.對全球金融市場的影響
資訊技術的發展，使全世界的金融交易聯繫在一起。然而金融一體化的步伐加快也造成了一些負面影響。由於 全球金融一體化的發展，當某個股市發生暴跌時，其他股票市場也難以倖免。“黑色星期一”這一天，東京股票交 易所的開盤鑼聲餘音未盡，股票價格便直線下跌。日經225指數下跌了620點，跌幅為14.9%；香港恒生 指數下跌421點，跌幅為11.3%，也創下了一天下跌最高紀錄；新加坡海峽時報指數下跌169點，跌幅為 12.4%；澳大利亞所有普通股價格指數下跌80點，跌幅為3.7%；FTSE30指數下跌183.7點， 跌幅為10.1%，FTSE100指數下跌249.6點，跌至2053.3點，投資者損失達500億英鎊。 此外，巴黎、法蘭克福、斯德哥爾摩、米蘭、阿姆斯特丹等股市均有6%至11%不同程度的下跌，形成全世界範 圍內的股市衝擊波。面對席捲全球的股市狂潮，各地政府震驚之餘，迅速採取一系列救市措施。香港股市當即停市 4天，前聯邦德國宣佈降低證券回購率，七國集團會商如何向金融系統提供流動資金。
四.美國政府的措施及公司回購“救市”星期一，大崩盤的當天，美國各界反應極為強烈，廣播、電視和報紙 發表大量博阿道評論。白宮發表聲明說：“國家經濟運行狀態良好，就業率處於最高水準上，生產也不斷增加，貿 易收支也在不斷改善。聯邦儲備委員會主席最近發表講話說，沒有跡象表明通貨膨脹會進一步發生。”10月19 日晚上，美國總統裏根立即召回在西德訪問的財政部長貝克和在外地的聯儲主席格林斯潘，嚴密關注事態的發展， 一起商討對策；紐約股票交易所主席約翰·費蘭聲稱，但願這種情況不要繼續下去，其他有關的官員也紛紛發表講 話穩定市場情緒。星期二早上，銀行紛紛停止對專業經紀商和交易員提供信用，銀行擔心他們會破產而收不回貸款 ，而專業經紀商已沒有足夠的現金向交易所支付保證金以維持交易暢通的責任，因為他們在星期一為了阻止股票下 跌而買進了過量的股票。專業經紀商因此而陷入了流動性困境，他們沒有現金參與星期二的交易。他們面臨的選擇 是，要麼倒閉，要麼求助於另外一家公司兼併他們。一旦專業經紀商倒閉，紐約股票交易所就會處於極其危險的境 地，因為他會缺乏保證金清算交割正常進行的資金來源。在這個關鍵的時刻，美國聯邦儲備委員會主席發表了具有 歷史意義的講話，“為履行作為中央銀行的職責，聯邦儲備系統為支援經濟和金融體系正常運作，今天重申將保證 金融體系的流動性。”這句話實際上是支援銀行為股票交易商繼續發放貸款：聯邦儲備委員會立即向銀行系統注入 資金已備必須。兩家主要商業銀行馬上宣佈降低優惠利率。化學銀行迅速增加4億美元的證券貸款。銀行家信託公 司也表示在任何情況下都會保證客戶的資金需要。聯邦儲備委員會的承諾使那些再交易所掛牌的上市公司略微恢復 了信心。裏根總統和財政部長貝克分別表示，這次股市崩盤與美國健康的經濟是不相稱的，美國經濟非常穩定。隨 後，美國的各大商業銀行紛紛降低利率。採取這些措施之後，10月20日，股票指數上升了102.27點，1 0月21日比20日又回升了186.94點，但10月22日收盤價比21日又下降了77.42點。大崩盤發 生的那一週內，約有650家公司公開宣佈要在公開市場上回購本公司的股票。而在此之前，自1987年1月1 日至10月16日，總共只有350家公司宣佈回購措施日。其中的大部分公司在“黑色星期一”那天繼續維持回 購行為。上市公司的這種大規模回購行為對股市產生了相當積極的作用。然而，在這次股市危機中，真正能就是的 卻是一些名不見經傳的小公司。10月20日(星期二)紐約股票市場港開門不久，G.A.F買回700萬美元 ，約合該公司21%的股票。這一行動無疑給衰弱的華爾街注射了一支強心針，說明該公司的實際信用遠遠超過股 票市場所反映出的股票牌價；到中午，又有4家小公司相繼回購他們流通在外的股票；12時10分，華爾街一家 著名的經濟公司梅裏·林廳公司宣佈回購500萬美元的股票。接著美國幾家大公司也相繼效倣，福特、霍尼威爾 公司等也採取了同樣的行動。上市公司的這種大規模回購行動對股市產生了相當積極的作用。當天中午12點30 分到下午13：00，道·瓊斯指數從1717點回升到1825點，到下午3點半，已上升到1915點。這一 天共上升了176點。
五.“87股災”對經濟的影響紐約股市暴跌，加劇了工人失業，極大地影響了投資和消費，進而影響並減少 國民收入。這次股票下跌，消弱了美國人的購買力，使消費有所下降並直接影響到生產。在美國，直接從事股票投 資的人佔全國人口的1/4，這部分人基本上分佈在購買力最強的年齡層次。股市的暴跌使原來依靠股票紅利、股息和投資股票獲取利潤來 安排生活的人深受打擊。短短一年之內，美國的私人消費開支減少約500億美元，使五年多來以股市為推動力， 以消費為主導的美國經濟出現了轉捩點。股票暴跌給美國經濟帶來的潛在威脅集中在投資領域。美國企業界需要依 靠外國資本擴大投資，政府也需要利用外資來彌補財政虧空。1987年上半年外資在華爾街購買了約2000億 美元的股票，在此次風潮中元氣大傷，信心嚴重受挫。國內投資者也心有餘悸。許多企業因股價下跌不敢再發行新 的股票，一些企業的擴大生產受到抑制。有人估計，到1988年，美國的企業投資會減少約250億美元，生產 增長速度放慢將成定局。股市暴跌對美國經濟投下了不信任票。企業投資減少，加劇了工人失業，使許多人生活水 準下降，引起了嚴重的社會問題。故事下跌使投資者把債券看作更安全的投資場所，股市下跌引起債券市場價格上 升。10月20日上午美國30年期的國債價格上升了12點。股市下跌對國際市場一般初級產品的價格和貴金屬 的價格的影響也有所表現。紐約股市價格暴跌的當天，黃金價格即漲到近5年來的最高水準。與此同時，在倫敦金 屬交易所，銅、鋁、鉛、鋅等踐金屬的價格下跌。同時，股市下跌也對房地產價格產生重要影響。
六.“87股災”爆發的原因分析“87股災”爆發的根本原因主要有以下幾點：其一，鉅額財政赤字和貿易 赤字。1986年美國財政赤字高達2210億美元，貿易赤字高達1562億美元，均創赤字最高紀錄。需要吸 收外來資金以彌補國內資金的不足，為了吸引外資，必須保持較高的利率水準，這對股票市場價格有直接的影響。 其二，美國和其他西方國家的經濟自進入20世紀80年代以來一直處於低速增長時期，生產型投資需求不足，剩 餘資本大量涌入證券市場，導致金融投資猖獗，債務空前膨脹，形成難以持久的虛假繁榮。此次股市暴跌即是“泡 沫經濟”的反映。其三，隨著美國霸權地位的衰落，西方經濟體系和整個世界經濟處於既不穩定的狀態。國際匯率 動蕩，國際貿易嚴重失衡，國際債務危機不斷。這些因素都影響到國際資金和股票市場的穩定。
股災爆發的直接誘因則主要在於以下幾點：
第一，利率提高使得國庫券和其他債券的利率相應提高，投資者從股票市場轉移資金投資于債券，致使股價暴 跌。
第二，貿易逆差過大，美元匯率下降，動搖了人們對美元和美國股市的信心。
第三，海灣戰爭也對股票投資者產生影響，促使其從股市抽走資金。
東南亞金融危機概述
自1997年7月起，爆發了一場始於泰國、後迅速擴散到整個東南業井波及世界的東南亞金融危機，使許多 東南亞國家和地區的匯市、股市輪番暴跌，金融系統乃至整個社會經濟受到嚴重創傷，1997年7月至1998 年1月僅半年時間，東南亞絕大多數國家和地區的貨幣貶值幅度高達30%～50%，最高的印尼盾貶值達70% 以上。同期。這些國家和地區的股市跌幅達30%～60%。據估算、在這次金融危機中，僅匯市、股市下跌給東 南亞同家和地區造成的經濟損失就達1000億美元以上。受匯市、股市暴跌影響。這些國家和地區出現了嚴重的 經濟衰退。
這場危機首先是從泰銖貶值開始的，1997年7月2日.泰國被迫宣佈泰銖與美元脫鉤。實行浮動匯率制度 。當大泰銖匯率狂跌20%。和泰國具有相同經濟問題的菲律賓、印度尼西亞和馬來西亞等國迅速受到泰銖貶值的 巨大衝擊。7月11日，菲律賓宣佈允許比索在更大範圍內與美元兌換，當大比索貶值11.5%。同一天，馬來 西亞則通過提高銀行利率阻止林吉特進一步貶值。印度尼西亞被迫放棄本國貨幣與美元的比價，印尼盾7月2日至 14日貶值了14%。
繼泰國等東盟國家金融風波之後，台灣的臺市貶值，股市下跌，掀起金融危機第二波，10月17日，臺市貶 值0.98元，達到1美元兌換29.5元台幣，創下近千年來的新低，相應地當天台灣股市下跌165.55點 ，10月20日。台幣貶至30.45元兌1美元。台灣股市再跌301.67點。台灣貨幣貶值和股市大跌，不 僅使東南亞金融危機進一步加劇，而且引發了包括美國股市在內的大幅下挫。10月27日，美國道，瓊斯指數暴 趴554.26點，迫使紐約交易所9年來首次使用暫停交易制度，10月28日，日本、新加坡、南韓、馬來西 亞和泰國股市分別跌4.4%、7.6%、6.6%、6.7%和6.3%。特別是香港股市受外部衝擊，香港恒 生指數10月21 H和27日分別跌765.33點和1200點，10月28日再跌1400點，這三大香港股市累計跌幅超過了 25%。
11月下旬，南韓匯市、股市輪番下跌，形成金融危機第三波。11月，韓元匯價持續下挫，其中11月20 日開市半小時就狂跌10%，創下了1139韓元兌1美元的新低；至11月底，韓無兌美元的匯價下跌了30% ，南韓股市跌幅也超過20%。與此同時，日本金融危機也進一步加深，11月日本先後有數家銀行和證券公司破 產或倒閉，日元兌美元也跌破1美元兌換130日元大關，較年初貶值17.03%。
從1998年1月開始、東南亞金融危機的重心又轉到印度尼四亞、形成金融危機第四波。l月8日，印尼盾 對美元的匯價暴跌26%。l月12日，在印度尼西亞從事鉅額投資業務的香港百富勤投資公司宣告清盤。同日， 香港恒生指數暴跌773.58點，新加坡、台灣、日本股中分別跌102.88點、362點和330.66點 。直到2月初，東南業金融危機惡化的勢頭才初步被遏制。
這次東南亞金融危機持續時問之長，危害之大、波及面之廣，遠遠超過人們的預料。然而，危機的發生絕不是 偶然的，它是一系列因素共同促成的必然結果。從外部原因看，是國際投資的巨大衝擊以及由此引起的外資撤離。 據統計，危機期間，撤離東南亞國家和地區的外資高達400億美元。但是，這次東南亞金融危機的最根本原因還 是在於這些國家和地區內部經濟的矛盾性。東南亞國家和地區是近20年來世界經濟增長最快的地區之一。這些國 家和地區近年來在經濟快速增長的同時暴露出日益嚴重的問題：以出口為導向的勞動密集型工業發展的優勢，隨 著勞動力成本的提高和市場競爭的加劇正在下降。上述東南亞國家和地區經濟增長方式和經濟結構未作適時有效的 調整，致使競爭力下降，對外出口增長緩慢、造成經常項目赤字居高不下。1996年，泰國國際收支經常項目赤 字為230億美元，南韓則高達237億美元。銀行貸款過分寬鬆，房地產投資偏大，商品房空置率上升、銀行 呆賬。壞賬等不良資產日益膨脹。泰國金融機構出現廠嚴重的現金週轉問題，南韓數家大型企業資不抵債宣告破產 ，日本幾家金融機構倒閉，印度尼西亞更是信用危機加劇。以上這些經濟因素從各個方面影響了匯市和股市，經 濟增長過分依賴外資，大量引進外資並導致外債加重。泰國外債1992年為200億美元，1997年貨幣貶值 前已達860億美元，南韓外債更是超過15D0億美元。匯率制度僵化。在近年美元對國際主要貨幣有較大升 值的情況下，東南亞國家和地區的匯率未作調整，從而出現高估的現象，加劇了產品價格上漲和出口銳減。因此， 這些國家和地區貨幣貶值勢在必行。而貨幣貶值又導致了償還外債的能力進一步下降，通貨膨脹壓力加劇，從而促 使股市下跌。在開放條件和應變能力尚不充分的情況下，過早地開放金融市場，加入國際金融一體化，當國際遊 資乘機興風作浪時，一些東南亞國家和地區不知所措或措施不力，完全處於被動地位。
1929年美國股災
在世界其他國家，發生過多起因股市而引起的經濟災難，最典型的要數1929年美國股災。
1929年10月29日
在這個被稱作“黑色星期二”的日子裏，紐約證券交易所裏所有的人都陷入了拋售股票的旋渦之中，這是美國 證券史上最黑暗的一天，是美國歷史上影響最大、危害最深的經濟事件，影響波及西方國家乃至整個世界。此後， 美國和全球進入了長達10年的經濟大蕭條時期。
美國做了個噩夢
危機已經悄悄降臨，人們卻沒有注意到。1926年秋，在20年代的投機狂潮中被炒得離譜的佛羅裏達房地 產泡沫首先被刺破了。然而，這絲毫沒有給華爾街的瘋狂帶來多少警醒。從1928年開始，股市的上漲進入最後 的瘋狂。事實上，在20年代，美國的許多產業仍然沒有從一戰後的蕭條中恢復過來，股市的過熱已經與現實經濟 的狀況完全脫節了。
1929年3月，美國聯邦儲備委員會對股票價格的高漲感到了憂慮，宣佈將緊縮利率以抑制股價暴漲，但美 國國民商業銀行的總裁查爾斯·米切爾從自身利益考慮，向股市中增加資金投入以避免下跌，股票經紀商和銀行家 們仍在極力鼓動人們加入投機。甚至一些著名的學者也失去了冷靜。其中最為典型的是耶魯大學的歐文·費雪，這 位大經濟學家不僅自己融進了投機者的行列，而且還在公開演講中宣稱：“股票價格已達到了某種持久的高峰狀態 。”
不過，也有不少人保持著冷靜的頭腦，美國總統約翰·肯尼迪的父親約瑟夫·肯尼迪就是及早從股市中脫身者 之一。他對自己說，如果連擦鞋匠都在買股票，我就不想再呆在裏面了。這個明智的選擇使他提早撤出資金，為其 家族的未來奠定了基礎。
1929年夏，股票價格的增長幅度超過了以往所有年份，崩潰已經近在眼前。9月3日，華爾街的一位統計 學家羅傑·巴布森在華爾街的金融餐會上說了一句話：“股市遲早會崩盤！”這句話被《道瓊斯金融》發表。其實 ，這位先生在此前的兩年中一直重復著這句話，卻只被人們當做笑談，沒想到這次竟一語成讖，千古留名。此話不 久就傳遍了全美國，投資者信心開始動搖，股市立刻掉頭向下。
股市下跌的消息驚動了總統胡佛，他趕緊向新聞界發佈講話說：“美國商業基礎良好，生產和分配並未失去以 往的平衡。”有關的ZF財政官員也出面力挺股市。但此時人們的神經已經異常脆弱，股市在經過曇花一現的上揚 後，就開始了噩夢般的暴跌。
跳樓的不僅是股指
1929年10月的最後10天，集中了證券史上一連串著名的日子。
10月21日，紐約證券交易所開市即遭大筆拋售，全天拋售量高達600多萬股，以致股市行情自動記錄器 到收盤1小時40分後才記錄完最後一筆交易。
10月23日，形勢繼續惡化，《紐約時報》指數下跌31點。
10月24日，這一天是股市災難的開始，史上著名的“黑色星期四”。早晨剛剛開市，股價就如決堤之水轟 然下泄，人們紛紛脫手股票，全天換手1289.5萬股。紐約數家主要銀行迅速組成“救市基金”，紐約證券交 易所總裁理查德·韋尼親自購入股票，希望力挽狂瀾。但大廈將傾，獨木難支。
10月25日，胡佛總統發表文告說：“美國的基本企業，即商品的生產與分配，是立足於健全和繁榮的基礎 之上的”，力圖以此刺激新一輪投資。然而，過了一個週末，一切挽救股市的努力都白費了。
10月28日，史稱“黑色星期一”。當天，紐約時報指數下跌49點，道瓊斯指數狂瀉38.33點，日跌 幅達13%，這一天，已經沒有人再出面救市。
10月29日，最黑暗的一天到來了。早晨10點鐘，紐約證券交易所剛剛開市，猛烈的拋單就鋪天蓋地席捲 而來，人人都在不計價格地拋售，經紀人被團團圍住，交易大廳一片混亂。道·瓊斯指數一瀉千里，至此，股價指 數已從最高點386點跌至298點，跌幅達22%，《紐約時報》指數下跌41點。當天收市，股市創造了16 41萬股成交的歷史最高紀錄。一名交易員將這一天形容為紐約交易所112年曆史上“最糟糕的一天”。這就是 史上最著名的“黑色星期二”。
11月，股市跌勢不止，滑至198點，跌幅高達48%。
翌年，股市憑藉殘存的一絲牛氣，在1～3月大幅反彈。並於4月重新登上297點。此後又急轉直下，從1 930年5月到1932年11月，股市連續出現了6次暴跌，道·瓊斯指數跌至41點。與股災前相比，美國鋼 鐵公司的股價由每股262美元跌至21美元。通用汽車公司從92美元跌至7美元。
在這場股災中，數以千計的人跳樓自殺。歐文·費雪這位大經濟學家幾天之中損失了幾百萬美元，頃刻間傾家 蕩產，從此負債纍纍，直到1947年在窮困潦倒中去世。
不堪回首二十年
這次股災徹底打擊了投資者的信心。人們聞股色變，投資心態長期不能恢復。股市危機、銀行危機與整個經濟 體系的危機，是個相互推動的惡性迴圈，股市暴跌後，投資者損失慘重，消費慾望大減，商品積壓更為嚴重。同時 ，股市和銀行出現危機，使企業找不到融資渠道，生產不景氣，反過來又加重了股市和銀行的危機，國民經濟雪上 加霜。由於美國在世界經濟中佔據著重要地位，其經濟危機又引發了遍及整個資本主義世界的大蕭條：5000萬 人失業，無數人流離失所，上千億美元財富付諸東流，生產停滯，百業凋零。
紐約股市崩潰發生之後，美國參議院即對股市進行了調查，發現有嚴重的操縱、欺詐和內幕交易行為，193 2年銀行倒閉風潮，又暴露出金融界的諸多問題。在痛定思痛、總結教訓的基礎上，從1933年開始，羅斯福Z F對證券監管體制進行了根本性的改革。建立了一套行之有效的以法律為基礎的監管構架，重樹了廣大投資者對股 市的信心，保證了證券市場此後數十年的平穩發展，併為世界上許多國家所仿傚。這樣，以1929年大股災為契 機，一個現代化的、科學的和有效監管的金融體系在美國宣告誕生。經歷了大混亂與大崩潰之後，美國股市終於開 始邁向理性、公正和透明。此後，經過羅斯福新政和二次大戰對經濟的刺激，美國股市逐漸恢複元氣，到1954 年終於回到了股災前的水準。
FTSE Index data: Just display it!
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Stockbrokers have resisted displaying live FTSE ST Indices on their screens because of the charges that they are charged for the data. They argue they don't want to pay extra, even though they won't be charged for the first year (they secured the first-year-free concession after earlier protests). But FTSE says it costs money to compile the indices on a daily basis. Our view is that the whole debate is rather childish and the losers, once again, are retail investors.
Stockbrokers have gone through a rough ride in recent years. First the deregulation of commissions brought prices down to S$25 per online trade, S$40 per broker-assisted trade over the phone, or alternatively 0.275% or 0.28% for large trades. Previously, they got paid much more. We saw a significant round of consolidation in 1999 and 2000, which brought about, among others, the combination of Vickers Ballas and DBS to form DBS Vickers, KayHian and UOB to form UOB KayHian, and so on. For brokers who've already seen their commissions drop, any additional cost is borne by them, and not passed on to clients. They absorb extra costs because of the competition in the market, and because retail investors are generally unwilling to pay.
The irony is, the brokers are behaving just the same. Even as they complain that they have no pricing power, that retail investors generally are cheapskates who complain about "high" brokerage commissions and demand that "everything also must be free", they are asking FTSE and the SGX to do the same.
It would be much better for everyone - including retail investors - to comprehend the value of data and information. Without these, no one would be doing any trades. Data and information are not luxury add-ons. They are crucial to the whole trading process. It's like refusing to fuel up your car to spite the oil companies and high oil prices. But your car won't go anywhere!
My understanding is ShareInvestor.com has a separate data charge for its subscribers, much like airlines have a fuel surcharge separate to the price of airline tickets. Perhaps the brokers should consider this? After all, currently they look like the bad boys in this dispute. If they provided the service but passed on the cost - in a year from now, when the charges kick in - they pass the responsibility of the costs to the SGX. By then, retail investors will be so used to seeing the indices, they won't be able to do without them and this whole issue becomes mute.
Mark Laudi - who favours the FTSE ST All Share Index as the new benchmark
Singapore Exchange 2nd-Quarter Net Income Rises 44%
By Chia-Peck Wong and Jean Chua
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore Exchange Ltd., the operator of the city's securities and derivatives markets, said its fiscal second-quarter profit rose 44 percent, boosted by a one-time gain and an increase in the value of shares traded.
Net income climbed to S$156.4 million ($109 million), or 14.59 cents a share, in the three months ended Dec. 31, from S$108.7 million, or 10.21 cents a year earlier, the company known as SGX said in a statement today. That beat the S$123 million median estimate of five analysts Bloomberg News surveyed.
Profit rose as the local benchmark Straits Times Index gained 17 percent in the quarter, while the daily average value of shares traded almost doubled to S$2.4 billion from S$1.3 billion a year ago. Still, investors' concerns that share- trading may be hurt by a possible U.S. recession pushed SGX shares 7.1 percent lower today, the biggest fall in five months.
``The market is probably pricing for lower volumes going forward; it's really hard to see any upside and sentiment looks more negative'' amid concerns an economic slowdown in the U.S. would hurt investor demand for stocks, Tay Chin Seng, an analyst at Macquarie Securities Pte, said before the results, which were released after the markets closed in Singapore.
The second-quarter profit was also boosted by a one-time gain from a S$34 million distribution from a compensation fund, SGX said today. The figures belie slowing growth from SGX's first fiscal quarter, when the index surged 47 percent while the value of shares traded almost tripled.
Diversifying Revenue
Without the gain, profit was 6 percent lower from the three months ended Sept. 30. To counter a possible slowdown in share trading, SGX is diversifying its revenue from the Singapore stock market by attracting more foreign companies to trade shares, Chief Financial Officer Seck Wai Kwong said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
Operating revenue in the quarter gained 63 percent to S$203.5 million, SGX added. Securities market revenue almost doubled to S$122 million from S$64.1 million a year earlier because of an 86 percent rise in trading value, SGX said.
Sales from derivatives clearing surged 40 percent to S$38.6 million after trading volume rose. Excluding the one-time gains in both quarters, net income almost doubled to S$122.4 million from last year's S$63.7 million, SGX said.
Eight Chinese companies sold shares during the quarter, Chief Executive Officer Hsieh Fu Hua said at a briefing, indicating there are ``no signs'' that IPOs from China are slowing.
Initial Share Offerings
For the quarter, there were 21 initial share offerings in the city-state that raised S$2.9 billion, with 14 from foreign companies, SGX said. A year earlier, there were 20 stock sales, including 17 from foreign companies, amounting to S$2.5 billion.
SGX is holding discussions with Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. on collaborating in areas such as derivative trading and creating products that could be traded on both bourses, Seck said.
``We are very optimistic about the market over there,'' he said. SGX bought a 5 percent stake in Bombay Stock Exchange last year.
SGX's Hsieh said he has yet to hear from Tokyo Stock Exchange Inc., the world's second-biggest equities market, on boosting its stake. The Tokyo bourse still holds 4.99 percent of SGX, Hsieh said today, adding that talks are ongoing.
The Tokyo exchange bought its stake in SGX in June last year for $303 million.
SGX said it will pay a dividend of 3 cents a share, from 2 cents last year. Its shares have fallen 25 percent this year, making it the fifth-worst performer on the 248-member MSCI AC Asia-Pacific Financials Index.
GIC to pour funds into Citigroup: WSJ
January 15, 2008
SINGAPORE - The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) will pour funds into struggling US bank Citigroup, The Wall Street Journal reported on its website on Tuesday.
The Journal, citing people familiar with the plan, said the announcement would come as part of Citigroup's fourth-quarter earnings report due later on Tuesday.
In Singapore, a GIC spokeswoman had no comment on the Journal's report.
The Journal said GIC would be the largest investor but funds would also come from the Kuwait Investment Authority and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.
At least one US money-management fund also is likely to participate, the report said, valuing the cash infusion at a minimum US$10 billion.
GIC and the Singapore state-linked investment firm Temasek Holdings were thrust into the global spotlight in December with separate multi-billion-dollar investments in two global financial institutions also suffering mortgage-related losses.
On December 24, US brokerage firm Merrill Lynch said Temasek had committed to buying a US$4.4-billion stake just days after GIC said it would inject almost US$10 billion into Swiss-based investment bank UBS.
Citigroup was also expected to announce a sizeable dividend cut and writedown of as much as US$20 billion in mortgage-related investments, the Journal said.
The newspaper reported on Monday that China Development Bank is expected to invest roughly US$2 billion in Citigroup but a China Development Bank spokeswoman would not confirm the report.
America's second-biggest banking group by market worth reaped a third-quarter profit of US$2.4 billion but its losses, especially from mortgage-backed securities, have ballooned.
Top executives warned that the bank faced further investment losses of between US$8 billion and US$11 billion, largely due to mortgage investment writeoffs. -- AFP
The Short View: Resurgence of the yen
By John Authers, Investment Editor
Published: January 15 2008 19:42 | Last updated: January 15 2008 19:42
If there were any glimmers of light amid Tuesday’s dreadful news, few saw them. From the awful results that forced Citigroup to cut its dividend, to bad US retail sales figures that deepened fears of recession in the world’s biggest economy, to the ZEW survey showing German business confidence at a 15-year low, bad news was everywhere.
But the resurgence of the yen is potentially the scariest news of all. It dropped below Y107 to the dollar for the first time since June 2005. This broke a trend of steadily weakening against the dollar that had been happening since 1994, according to Nomura.
This is important because the yen has become a gauge for risk aversion in the markets. When traders feel confident, they borrow in yen to fund investments elsewhere. This yields easy profits unless the yen suddenly appreciates. A rising yen betokens fear.
Hence its close correlation with the equity indices, and with equity volatility. Share prices fall, and volatility rises, when the yen does well.
The yen’s rise has nothing to do with fundamentals. Indeed, the Bank of Japan yesterday reduced its economic assessments of four of its nine regions and admitted the economy was slowing, reducing the chances of a rate rise.
A strong yen is not good news for anyone – including the Japanese. Falls this year have left the Nikkei 225 stock index in a bear market, down 23.4 per cent from its high of July last year. Fears that the revived yen will damage exporters have contributed to the damage.
Are there any signs of light? The rise in the yen, combined with dramatically bearish surveys of investor sentiment, suggests fear has totally taken over from greed in the markets – a classic contrarian indicator of a time to buy stocks.
The long-awaited capitulation may be under way. Scarily, that is the best reason for optimism.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
The Perfect Storm（暴风雨即将来临）/ 谢国忠
Andy xie, 谢国忠
2008-01-14
(译文在全文后）
The United States is sliding into recession. Japan seems too. China is tightening aggressively. Oil has soared past $100 per barrel. The stars are lined up for a perfect storm as 2008 begins. Hang Seng Index may drop 20% over the next three months. The market may recover in the second quarter as the Olympic mania affects market sentiment. Before investors can taste the joy of 2008, they must eat bitterness first.
2008 is a turning point in the global economy. The current bull market began in mid-2003: Americans recovered from the '9-11' shock and China recovered from the SARS shock. Both felt a near-death experience and became determined to live it up a bit, just in case. Americans went on a borrow-and-spend binge. The defining picture must be throngs of people rushing through the just-opened doors at Wal-Mart Centers. Chinese threw the money into property and then stock market and watched both rise. The defining picture must be the throngs of people staring up at the tickers screens. The two spent differently but got the same thrill.
Well, every party must end. America's is ending now. China's may have a few innings left but may experience a big hiccup soon as the US burst chills sentiment here and inflation scares Chinese policymakers into taking the away, even though temporarily. The combination may cook up the perfect storm for Hong Kong market.
The bull market depends on rising earnings and cheap capital. The former has benefited from 15% annual growth rate of China's nominal GDP for the past three years and rising share of corporate earnings in the economy due to faster asset appreciation. The macro tightening could take a big bite out of both. The tightening may slow nominal growth rate by 20%. It will reverse the rising trend of profit share in the economy, mainly due to its powerful effects on earnings in the property and financial sector. The growth rate for China's corporate earnings may halve in 2008, with banks and properties the biggest casualties.
Despite the Fed's rate reductions, the US economy is still sliding into a recession. The credit crisis has exposed the risks of buying into complex Wall Street products. It deters international capital from flowing to the US. Foreign capital has funded the US borrow-and-spend binge. Unless the confidence in Wall Street returns, Americans won't have enough money to spend. It takes time for foreigners to recover their faith in the Wall Street. The Fed's policy couldn't substitute this. Its rate reductions would only make dollar weaker and increase inflation. As a result, stagflation may stalk the US economy for a couple of years.
The US recession will decrease risk appetite among international investors. As international capital still dominates the Hong Kong market, it could see significant outflow. Further, many financial institutions in the US have capital shortage. They may have to pull money out of Hong Kong. Facing a banking crisis at home in 1998, Japanese financial institutions pulled big amounts of money out of Hong Kong. The US financial institutions may do the same in 2008.
Would Chinese money come to the rescue? Not soon enough. Chinese money may be flowing back into the A-share market recently. Even though the A-shares are so much more expensive than the same shares in Hong Kong, buoyant local sentiment still keeps them up. Chinese investors may be irrational. But, there are so many of them that they can keep an irrational market going for a long time. Hong Kong market is just too rational for the comfort of Chinese investors. Hence, Chinese market becomes a safe haven during the international correction.
The Fed reductions may not benefit like before. The property demand in Hong Kong depends on gains in the stock market rather than wage income. The wage gains are not exceeding inflation by much. The lower US interest rate won't spike Hong Kong wage earners to borrow and purchase properties like before. Stagnant population is another headwind for property. Japan shows that, with stagnant population, even zero interest rate doesn't make property price go up. Despite all the hypes about Hong Kong property, it may have peaked already.
In the second quarter, international financial markets may calm down, after fully pricing in a US recession. Chinese money may return to Hong Kong again, to play at a lower level. International investors may also have overcome their fear of the US dragging down China. As the two embrace, the market may fly again, even though the US market remains stone cold.
The Olympics party may not last long. After the summer, reality may catch up with investors again. Many Chinese companies are concept plays, not lasting franchises. Some might even be scams, despite being taken to the market by renowned investment banks. Remember subprime: big names don't mean much anymore. China's tightening will expose the negative cash flow businesses of such companies. The resulting explosions may affect confidence.
The air in Hong Kong and Shanghai may be squeezed soon after the Olypics. The deflating process may be painful to many. But it would make China's capital markets and economic development healthier. Many 'share gods' have emerged in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Their 15 minutes of fame are far more damaging than Paris Hilton's: they suck credulous housewives into overvalued shares without the pleasant look to soothe. Worse, they might be talking there own books and could be getting out while talking bullish.
Even bubble here goes through the same routine. Investment banks take doggy companies to the market for a fee. Some new faces suddenly don the cover of Fortune Magazine as the riches this and that. When the show stops, most stars suddenly vanish. Some manage to escape into the deep woods of Thailand with some stolen cash. Little people always lose. We seem to be doomed to repeat the same mistake again and again.
翻译：小编
美国已经开始了衰退期，日本看来也这样。中国也在很进取的紧缩。油价已经过了一百美元。当2008刚刚开始，闪烁的星星看来已经为一场完美的暴风雨做好了准备。恒生指数可能会在未来三个月下跌百分之二十。市场可能在奥运效应的刺激下，在第二季度出现复苏。但是在投资者尝到甜头之前，他们必须先吃到苦头。
2008是全球经济的拐点。现在的牛市是从2003年中开始的：美国从911，中国从非典的震惊中醒来。两者都经历了死亡的感觉，于是决定，不管怎样，需要好好活着。于是，美国开始了借贷消费，最典型的画面，就是刚刚开门的沃尔玛门口的长龙。而中国人则把钱投入了房地产，然后是股市，看着它们上升。典型的画面就是股价牌前的人龙。两者花钱的方式不同，但是却有相同的结局。
好了，晚会总有结束的时候。美国的已经结束了，中国的可能还有一点点时间,但是也可能很快会经历倒退。因为美国的影响，加上政策制定者对于通胀的恐惧，使得他们提前把风球挂上，即使只是暂时的。而这些的混合，可能会导致香港市场的暴风雨的到来。
牛市依靠增加的利润和便宜的资本。之前大家受益于中国过去三年超过百分之十五的经济增长，以及快速的资产折旧带来的利润分享。但是宏观调控会影响这一切。紧缩政策会让快速增长减慢大约百分之二十。这会让经济利润分享的上升趋势出现逆转，特别是在房地产以及金融业的影响。中国的企业盈利在2008年可能会减少一半，房地产和银行会成为最大的受害者。
尽管联储局减息，美国经济依然走向衰退。次案危机显示出了购买华尔街复杂金融产品的风险。这阻止了国际资本流向美国。而外资是美国的信贷消费的支撑。除非华尔街的信心恢复，不然美国没有足够的资金被消费。要恢复外资对于华尔街的信心需要时间。联储局的政策是没有用的。它的减息政策只会导致美元更加弱势以及通胀加大。而结果，美国会出现好几年的通缩。
美国的衰退会让国际投资者增加风险意识。由于国际资本仍然主导香港股市，因此会看到明显的流出。另外，美国的很多金融机构出现资金短缺，因此他们会从香港抽出资金。在1998年，日本银行因为缺乏资金，而从香港抽回大批资金，在2008年，美国的金融机构可能会这样做。
那末内地的资金会来拯救香港吗？可能时间不够快。中国内地的资金可能会在最近回到A股市场。尽管A股的价格远远比香港的H股要贵，但是乐观的市场气氛对他们很吸引。中国内地的投资者可能是非理性的。但是他们有足够的非理性的投资者来推进市场在非理性中上升。而香港市场对于那些中国内地投资者来说过于理性，而中国内地股市成为国际市场调整中的一个天堂。
联储局的减息的效果可能没有从前那样有效，香港房地产市场的需求，依靠的是股市而不是工资收入。工资的增长没有比通胀多多少。美国的减息并不能够像以前那样刺激香港的打工仔去购买房地产。人口老龄化也是房地产的影响因素，就好像日本，即使是零利率，也没有造成房价上升。对于乐观者来说，香港房价的顶峰可能已经抵达了。
到了第二季度，国际金融市场可能会冷静下来，在经历了美国衰退之后。内地的资金可能再回到香港，在底位进行投资。国际投资者可能已经克服了对于美国拖累中国经济的担心，香港股市可能复苏，但是同时，美国市场还是石头一块。
奥运效应可能不会持续长久。夏天之后，投资者会面对现实。很多中国的公司只是在玩概念，不是长久性的。很多可能只是一个空壳，除非真的被投资银行放入了市场。记得这样一句话：名声大不再意味着什末。中国的紧缩政策会让那些资金流不足的公司显现出来。而这些情况的暴露可能会影响信心。
香港和上海的空气在奥运后可能会紧张起来。通缩的过程可能会很痛苦。但是会让中国的资本市场发展得更加健康。很多“股神“已经淹没在香港和上海的股市中。他们的15分钟的操盘造成的损害远远要比PARIS HILTON严重的多：他们把那些家庭主妇的钱，吸引到了那些高估价的股票里面。更糟糕的事，在牛市的时候把这些钱占为己有。
泡沫总是用同样的方式发生。投资银行先把那些所谓的公司上市来赚回手续费。于是在一些财富杂志上就会出现一些新的面孔。当这样的表演停止，于是这些面孔就消失了。一些人就会逃到泰国的森林里面，带着不法得来的现金。小人物总是输的。我们必须避免同样的错误再次发生。
African proverb: “Only a fool tests the depth of the water with both feet.”
"HAIL TO THE KING" -- There's one forumer in SI forum who vested, worshipped and fell-in-love madly with the stock, Rowsley.
I read the following article amples times; and I still like to read it again and again, till today...
Former 'remiser king': equities still have legs
But he's worried about the property market
By TEH HOOI LING
July 16, 2007
(SINGAPORE) Peter Lim, the man formerly known as the 'Remisier King' and who is estimated to be worth more than $2 billion today, reckons the stock market still has two good years to go. But he is getting concerned about the property market.
'The market won't collapse for the next two, three years. It's all sentiment-driven. People are making more money, and so long as people are spending, we are OK. But one has got to start to think how to exit at the end of 2-3 years - 2009, before the casino starts operating,' he said.
Mr Lim is, of course, well known as an influential stockbroker and deal-maker in the Singapore and Malaysian markets in the early 1990s. That was also when he made his millions, but quit at his peak to take care of divorce proceedings.
Despite being out of the industry, it was in the last few years that his fortunes took a leap forward, thanks to the booming stock market. He was recently in the news for agreeing to put $150 million into Rowsley for its reverse takeover of a China solar company.
In a near four-hour interview with BT to talk about his market views and investment philosophy, Mr Lim said a lot of the big companies listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) today have a global presence.
Like Keppel Corp, for instance; it can't fulfil all the orders for its oil rigs. So even if there is a shift in investor sentiment and the market corrects severely, investors can still ride out the whole cycle, said Mr Lim - barring a global recession, of course.
The danger, he said, is in the small-cap sector. 'Some of these stocks have gone up a lot. Much of the potential has been priced in. If this potential is cut short by any unexpected unfortunate event, they will come down like a rock.'
Small-cap stocks run up fast because of their small float. But when the sentiment turns, everyone is a seller, he said.
As for the property market, Mr Lim thinks prices have gone up too fast. The sharp increase has taken everyone by surprise, even the government. 'Actually, it's quite simple. Singapore is small. You get a small bucket, and pour a lot of water, it'll overflow. This is what's happening. I think the demand just comes together at the same time. I don't think it's sustainable.'
Demand is so strong that people are knocking down buildings, and that's curtailing supply even more.
But the thing is, the buildings knocked down will have three times more apartments when they get rebuilt a few years down the road. 'When the supply comes out, property prices will drop,' he said.
Comparisons have been drawn between Singapore and London. 'But you tell me: how many en bloc (redevelopments) do they have in London? No en blocs means no additional supply.' he said.
Mr Lim is worried about the impact of high rentals on businesses - office rentals have gone up by 200-300 per cent in the last few years. 'Costs are going to bloat . . . most businesses' margins are going to be eaten up by costs.'
At the moment, many individuals and companies are making money from asset inflation, he said. 'You hope that this asset inflation becomes an income, becomes regular. But I don't think so. These are all situational. But it will go one day.
'I'm not a pessimist, but this is how I see it. That's why at the end of a bull market, you see a new generation coming up. Because all the old ones die. Now and then, you see one of those who stays - then he becomes a legend. And if you observe those legends, most of the time, they spend their time scolding people: 'don't gear, don't gamble'.'
And that exactly was the message that he kept harping on during the interview.
'A lot of people get it wrong. When the bull market is here, they build debts. Bull market is the time to build cash. Because today's market turns very quickly. When the market turns, you cannot sell, especially for the property market. You can only sell when things are going up.
'So I always tell my friends: 'Make sure you stay alive. The market won't die, so there's always a next time.'
By BT's estimates, Mr Lim is worth in excess of $2 billion. He has just under 5 per cent in Wilmar International. Based on the company's current market capitalisation of $22 billion on SGX, that stake alone is worth $1.11 billion. He has about 11 per cent in FJ Benjamin, and that's worth $52.6 million. Meanwhile, his 25 per cent stake in Rowsley has a market value of $37 million. So his Singapore equities alone are worth $1.2 billion. On top of that, he has some Australian mining stocks bought in the 1970s and '80s.
Mr Lim says 50 per cent of his portfolio is now in equities, another 10 per cent in properties and the remaining 40 per cent in cash. The cash is from the dividends he received, which he has not reapplied to the market. So all in, he's worth more than $2.4 billion.
The 54-year-old believes that the fortune he has today is pre-destined. 'This size - substantially, it's your destiny. If today I have $10 million, I'd say over 90 per cent is due to my hard work. But getting it right is not $1 billion. Maybe it's $100 million. How that $100 million becomes $1 billion, you know it's because somebody likes you. You must believe it's somehow a path that's been drawn.'
The bulk of his net worth is in Wilmar, in which he was asked to pump in under $10 million in the early 1990s. By the second half of the decade, he had totally written off that investment. That was when the Indonesian currency fell from 2,500 rupiah against the US dollar (the exchange rate he invested in Wilmar), to 16,000 rupiah, and president Suharto was ousted. There were riots in Indonesia. There was no way of cashing out the assets. But in a few years, things stabilised in Indonesia and the pieces began to come together for Wilmar. Its China operations began to pick up, businessman Robert Kuok decided to inject his Malaysian palm oil operations into Wilmar and palm oil prices started to go through the roof because of the scramble to produce biofuels.
'My Indonesian partner was asking me the other day: 'How the hell did we make so much money?'
'Up to a point after people tell you a story and a vision, don't write it off. Sometimes it comes true. You just make sure that if it doesn't come true, you don't get hurt too much,' he said.
The most important factor to consider when investing in a company is the person running it; you look at whether the person is honest, and whether he or she is master of their trade.
'It works. It's a tested method of assessing companies,' Mr Lim said.
Wilmar is not his only lucky break. He escaped the Asian crisis as he had quit the broking profession in 1996 to prepare for his divorce proceedings. And he spent the next six months liquidating most of his stock positions. So when the crisis hit, he was mostly in cash.
He was also not in the market during the dotcom bubble as the hearing on the division of matrimonial assets dragged on until 2001. He thanks his lucky stars for having avoided the Asian financial crisis, but thinks he would not have been caught in the insanity of the dotcom bubble.
Nowadays, Mr Lim spends his time dispensing advice to deal-makers in the industry - and sends them a bill of $300,000 or more for it. He still gets a thrill out of structuring deals, which he says is similar to a chess game.
He described the recent Rowsley deal to acquire a solar energy company in China as 'beautiful', as one which allows existing shareholders to 'lock in the upside, but hedge the downside'.
He's also having to cope with the problems of having too much money. He worries if his children, a 15-year-old girl and 13-year-old boy, will be spoilt by his wealth. He reckons he may give the bulk of his money to charity eventually.
But going by the four-hour lunches that he takes - with Imperial Treasure at Great World City being his Canteen No 1 and Kuriya his Canteen No 2 - and sometimes squeezing in a game of tennis or two before dinner, the money problem can't be all that bad.
HIS VIEWS ON . . .
Cutting deals
Maybe it's in the blood. It's quite exciting to pitch a deal, to make sure that you don't catch me. It's like a chess game: you make this move, the next one I make. I don't want to get checkmate.
Wealth
Money is a funny thing. When you don't have it, you want it. But when you have it, you have a lot of problems. I believe that if I'd had no money, I wouldn't have had my divorce. Things wouldn't be good, but it wouldn't end up in a divorce.
Growing old
Once you are old, every year makes a lot of difference. Your lease gets shorter, there's no extension. You go, you go.
Death
Some of my school mates have passed away. So once you start to see all these things, your perspective on life becomes more measured, more considered.
Making money
It's very difficult to make money from trading. People who get rich are those who buy a company, build it, run it. Most of the traders, they come, they make money, because they have this gambling instinct. They take the money and spend it. The minute they lose money, they got no money to pay up.
The next downturn
Today's bull run can get cut short by a number of things. Just like our recent experience with Sars, or a bomb drops on the wrong person's head. Like anything else, the least expected thing can happen at the wrong time. I got a feeling the next downturn will be very severe.
The good life: Nowadays, Mr Lim spends his time dispensing advice to deal-makers in the industry - and sends them a bill of $300K for it
Life is NOT like a box of chocolates. It’s more like a jar of jalapenos. What you do today, might burn your ass tomorrow...
Hear Me Cry
You can't say
Needed someone new
You actually thought
Deep inside I knew
Can you tell me how can you say
Why this should suffice
You passed me by
And your heart's as cold as ice
(You passed me by)
Did you see me cry
(Did you ask yourself why)
Did you see me cry
(Did you ask yourself how)
Can you hear me cry
(Did you ask yourself)
Will we ever grow apart
You couldn't say
Needed someone new
And you actually thought
Deep inside I knew
I wonder where we will go
Will we be the same
(You passed me by)
I laugh inside I think of you
And the love we made
(You passed me by)
Tell me why this should suffice
I hold you through the night
Now will I let it go
Soon I'll let it go
Can you hear me cry
(Will you ask yourself why)
Can you hear me cry
(Will you ask yourself how)
Can you hear me cry
(Will you ask yourself)
Will we ever grow apart
You, I'll stand by your side
I'll be there for you
(You passed me by)
You, I'll stand by your side
Please just do me right
(You passed me by)
You, I'll stand by your side
I'll be there for you
你不能说出
你需要别的人
你正在深思
实际上我知道
你只要告诉我你怎么解释
为什么会这样
你从我身边走过
你的心冷如冰(你从我身边走过)
你看见我哭泣吗?(你问过自己原因吗?)
你看见我哭泣吗?(你问过自己为什么会这样吗?)
你能听见我哭泣吗?(你质问过自己吗?)
我们会不会永远分离?
你不能说出
你需要别的人
你正在深思
实际上我知道
我想知道我们的未来
我们还会不会象以前一样?(你从我身边走过)
我会心微笑,我在想你.
想着我们曾经拥有过的爱(你从我身边走过)
告诉我为什么,我只要这样就足够了
我想能整夜拥着你入眠
现在需要我放弃吗?
我会即刻就放手!
你能听见我哭泣吗?(你问过自己原因吗?)
你能听见我哭泣吗?(你会问过自己为什么会这样吗?)
你能听见我哭泣吗?(你会质问自己吗?)
我们会不会永远分离?
我将会在你身旁
我会在那为你守侯(你从我身边走过)
我将会在你身旁
只要你给我肯定(你从我身边走过)
我将会在你身旁
我会在那为你守侯
Financial Sector Bleeding Red Ink!
by Mike Larson
01-18-08
The stock market is in a state of near-panic. The Dow tanked another 307 points yesterday, continuing a string of triple-digit declines that have marred the new year. The latest action is proof positive that the credit problems that began in the housing and home mortgage market are spreading out in concentric circles.
They're forcing builders to cut back furiously on home construction. They're causing companies to slash jobs. They're weakening the broader economy, helping drive losses on credit cards, auto loans, and other products higher.
And nowhere is the impact as severe as the U.S. financial sector. Banks and brokers are spilling so much red ink that it's hard to keep up with it all!
If you want to make sound investment decisions in 2008, understanding these figures is critically important.
The markets are crumbling and we've got no time to waste, so let's get right into the big-picture trends that are jumping right off the pages ...
Gigantic Write-downs Continue
To Imperil the Financial Sector!
From regional banks to the financial behemoths, firms are owning up to huge losses.
Much of the carnage is coming from home mortgages and so-called "structured finance" deals. One major culprit — the once-ballyhooed Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), a form of fixed-income security that invests in slices of other packaged loans — bundles of mortgages, auto loans, corporate debt, and so on.
These caustic investments are now showing up in press release after press release ...
The Bank of New York Mellon (BK) wrote down its CDOs by $118 million ...
M&T Bank (MTB) announced a $127 million CDO charge ...
Merrill Lynch (MER) reported a stunning $11.5 billion in fourth-quarter charges tied to CDOs. Merrill's total quarterly loss was $9.83 billion versus a profit of $2.35 billion a year earlier ...
And Citigroup (C) won the blue ribbon, taking an eye-popping $18 billion charge. That helped drive the firm deep into the red — it lost $9.83 billion in the quarter versus a profit of $5.1 billion a year earlier.
Here's another crucial NEW development that you need to know about: Many of these firms have insured the value of their CDOs and other holdings by entering into "credit insurance" policies with certain counterparties.
Think of these like you would any insurance policy. As a homeowner, you buy homeowners' insurance to protect yourself against the risk your house will burn down. Well, financial firms can also buy credit insurance — insurance that ostensibly protects their portfolios against losses if the bonds or other securities they're holding go into default.
There's just one problem: Some of the parties who SOLD those credit insurance policies are facing huge financial difficulties. Martin has talked about Ambac, MBIA, and the others before.
Since then, the prices of their own shares and debt securities have continued to plunge. The reason: So many CDOs and other securities are going into default, or threatening to do so down the road, that investors are worried the losses will swamp the insurers. In simple terms, they're worried the insurers won't be able to make good on the policies they sold.
And that could spark a whole new round of mega-writedowns and charges. Indeed, Merrill Lynch took a $2.6-billion hit because one of its insurers, ACA Capital Holdings, is under severe financial pressure. It wrote off its ACA-provided coverage as worthless.
Meanwhile, Credit Losses Are
Rising Fast on All Kinds of Loans
It's not just mark-to-market hits on the value of esoteric debt securities plaguing the financial sector.
Let's be honest: Big financial firms take big market risks all the time, and sometimes they get burned. Investors are able to ignore these events.
But now these companies are also seeing their bread and butter underlying loans go sour at a rapid pace. I'm not just talking about home mortgages, either.
For example, Citigroup said credit costs in the U.S. consumer business surged $4.1 billion. That number included a charge of $3.31 billion to boost the bank's loan loss reserve due to rising delinquencies on first and second mortgages, as well as personal loans, credit cards, and car loans.
What about JPMorgan? The firm's retail banking division boosted its provision for credit losses to $1.05 billion from $262 million a year earlier. That's a fourfold increase, only part of which was driven by problems in the home equity and mortgage arena.
And I don't know if you saw it, but the Wall Street Journal had a great story this week about a "sudden acceleration in auto loan delinquencies." It said some 2.06% of prime-credit auto loans made in 2006 are already more than 30-days delinquent.
That's a higher level of early defaults than we saw in 2001, when the economy was last in recession!
Loans made in 2007 are performing even worse, a sign that auto lenders went too far out on the risk curve just like their mortgage lender brethren.
Also noteworthy: It used to be the homeowners who were having credit problems with individual mortgages. Now home and condo DEVELOPERS are starting to have problems paying off their loans.
Look at it this way: If you're a banker and one of your customers can't pay his $300,000 mortgage, that's bad. But if you're a banker and one of the builders you've lent money to can't pay his $300 MILLION development loan, the losses can be exponentially larger!
Make No Mistake: Housing Remains Weak
And Commercial Real Estate Is Slowing
December was a particularly nasty month for the construction industry. Housing starts were off by more than 14% on the month ... 38% on the year ... and 56% from the market peak.
We haven't seen this little construction activity since March 1991!
Permits, for their part, dropped 8.1% on the month ... 34.4% on the year ... and a whopping 52.8% from their peak.
The decline was geographically widespread, too. Construction fell in all four regions, while permit activity fell in three out of four.
Separately, an index that measures builder optimism, current sales trends, and buyer traffic remains in the dumps. At 19, the index is just off December's reading of 18, which was the lowest level since the National Association of Home Builders began its survey in 1985.
Clearly, builders are still under immense pressure. More bankruptcies could be coming soon. The Federal Reserve's latest "Beige Book" — which contains anecdotal evidence on the economy collected from contacts around the U.S. — also noted that commercial construction activity was slowing and that rental growth rates are slumping.
That's exactly what I've been warning you about for several quarters, and it confirms my suspicion that a surge in commercial real estate loan delinquencies is coming next.
This Means the Broad Market and
The Economy Are in Dire Straits
The financials are the heart of our economy. They finance our debt-driven society. And right now, they're gushing red ink.
They've already been tightening loan standards, and cutting back on new lending so they can repair their balance sheets. But if these losses persist — or get worse as the economy slumps — you're going to see credit get even tighter.
That's bearish for the market, no matter how you slice it.
So NOW is the time to get even more cautious, in my view. Jettison some losers and take some more gains off the table on winners. Build more cash reserves and take a conservative approach to spending. That's the best way to protect yourself — and your portfolio — from the continued weakness that we're going to experience.
Until next time,
Mike
Bond-insurer woes may trigger more write-downs
Doubts on AAA ratings for Ambac, MBIA spark turmoil in muni bond market
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Jan. 18, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Just when you thought it was over, trouble in the $2.3 trillion bond-insurance business could trigger another wave of big write-downs from banks and brokerage firms, experts said Friday.
Leading bond insurers Ambac Financial (ABK) and MBIA Inc. (MBI) look increasingly likely to lose their AAA ratings. While almost unthinkable just six months ago, such concerns are also causing turmoil in the $2.5 trillion municipal-bond market.
Bond insurers agree to pay principal and interest when due in a timely manner in the event of a default -- a $2.3 trillion business that offers a credit-rating boost to municipalities and other issuers that don't have AAA ratings. Without those top ratings, their business models may be imperiled.
A more worrying consideration is that when a bond insurer is downgraded, all the securities it has guaranteed are, in theory, downgraded as well.
If Ambac and MBIA lose their top ratings, billions of dollars of muni bonds will be downgraded, and the guarantees that have been sold on mortgage-related securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, will lose value.
Bond insurers guarantee roughly $1.4 trillion worth of muni bonds and more than $600 billion of structured finance securities, such as mortgage-backed securities and CDOs, according to Standard & Poor's. Ambac alone has guaranteed about $67 billion of CDOs.
"The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame," Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.
Kravec cut her rating on Ambac and MBIA on Friday because she thinks that ratings downgrades are "highly probable" now.
Indeed, Fitch Ratings cut Ambac's AAA rating to AA on Friday, becoming the first major agency to take that step. Fitch downgraded 137,390 muni bond issues and 114 other securities guaranteed by Ambac soon after.
Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) took a $3.1 billion write-down on Thursday related to the firm's CDO hedges. Merrill had bought CDO guarantees from bond insurers including ACA Capital, a smaller player that's now struggling to survive. Most of the write-downs were related to ACA.
CIBC (CM) and French banking giant Credit Agricole unveiled similar write-downs in December, related to guarantees they bought from ACA.
'Whopping'
But ACA is much smaller than Ambac and MBIA. If the two larger bond insurers are downgraded, banks and brokers that have bought guarantees from them may have to write-down their exposures further.
Merrill has net CDO exposure of $4.8 billion. But that includes a lot of hedging, mainly through guarantees bought from bond insurers. Excluding those hedges, the brokerage firm still has a "whopping" $30.4 billion of CDOs on its balance sheet, Brad Hintz, an analyst at Bernstein Research, noted on Friday.
"We remain very uncomfortable with Merrill's CDO balance sheet exposure," the analyst wrote in a note to investors. "If the counterparties are downgraded, and they cannot post additional collateral, we would expect that Merrill Lynch would have to take a valuation reserve against that specific exposure."
Citigroup (C) set aside $900 million during the fourth quarter to cover heightened credit risks related to counterparties it uses to hedge CDO risks.
Muni bond turmoil
The impact on the muni-bond market may be just as big, experts said Friday.
There are $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion of muni bonds. Roughly half of those are insured by bond, or "monoline," insurers like Ambac and MBIA.
So more than $1 trillion of muni bonds are now in danger of being downgraded. That could trigger losses for muni-bond investors.
"Assuming the "monoline" insurers lose their triple-A ratings, underlying insured muni bonds could be susceptible to downgrades and downward repricing, leading to losses for muni-bond mutual funds," Michael Kim, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill, told investors in a note Friday.
Shares of big muni-bond fund managers, including Franklin Resources (BEN) and Eaton Vance (EV) have already been hit by such concerns, Kim said.
Franklin stock has slumped 22% so far this year; Eaton Vance is off 27%.
Information vacuum
Most muni bonds insured by Ambac and MBIA are now trading as if there isn't any insurance, Richard Larkin, a municipal-trading desk analyst at JB Hanauer & Co., commented Friday.
"The market has lost all faith in bond insurance and the ratings agencies," he said. "Prices are being discounted because people wonder whether there is any value to the insurance."
That's a big problem, because there are no official ratings for many of the underlying issuers of muni bonds, such as cities, school districts and utilities, he added.
When municipalities sold debt, they asked agencies like S&P and Moody's to evaluate the securities with bond insurance attached.
If the insurance on this debt becomes less valuable, muni bond investors have few ways of checking the new creditworthiness of the issuer, Larkin said.
That's creating an "information vacuum" because the rating agencies aren't going to re-evaluate muni bond issuers unless the municipalities request and pay for new analysis, he said.
"The lack of public underlying ratings on insured debt is a big problem, and if more bond insurers are downgraded, the rating agencies are not likely to fill the vacuum and publish underlying ratings unless they are paid additional fees to do so," Larkin explained.
"Trades are being made based on people's best guesses of the creditworthiness of issuers," he added. "And if these downgrades happen, that will be the environment going forward. Not a good one."
Bond insurers
All fall down?
Economist.com
Jan 18th 2008
Huge new problems in the capital markets?
AMERICA’S big bond insurers, which have underwritten some $2.4 trillion of private and public-sector bonds, usually go about their business largely unnoticed. But now they are looking distinctly wobbly they have started to attract attention. If one or more of them were to topple over, there will be a huge knock-on effect on banks and other financial institutions that rely on their guarantees. This in turn will further worsen the credit crunch and cause an even bigger headache for policymakers already grappling with a sharp slowdown in the American economy.
The threat of such a financial domino effect looms large. Moody’s, a credit-rating agency, has signalled that it might downgrade the AAA-ratings of two of the biggest bond insurers, MBIA and Ambac, in the near future. On Friday January 18th, Ambac said that it had dropped a plan to raise $1 billion of new equity capital to preserve its rating—making futher downgrades even likelier. In response, Fitch, another rating firm, cut Ambac's rating.
MBIA, which recently managed to raise $1 billion of new capital on top of another billion that it received from Warburg Pincus, a private-equity firm, will almost certainly need even more money if it is to preserve its AAA-rating. ACA Financial Guaranty Corporation, another insurer, is in even direr straits. In December its single-A credit rating was cut to junk status. The firm begged its trading partners to give it more time to sort out its problems. But by Friday it had still not come up with a rescue plan. The state insurance regulator of Maryland, where ACA is incorporated, has already assumed responsibility for some of its operations.
Bond insurers in effect “lend” their top-notch ratings to lower-quality debt, raising its value in the eyes of investors. Any cut in those ratings may make it impossible for the bond insurers to take on new business and would reduce the value of the securities they have already underwritten. Such cuts are now a distinct possibility because the insurers have underwritten billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities, including those notorious collateralised-debt obligations (CDOs) that have now gone sour.
On Wednesday Ambac announced a $3.5 billion writedown—as well as the ousting of its chief executive—$1.1 billion of which was related to CDOs. The insurers’ exposure to these and other exotic products is a huge multiple of their flimsy capital bases—and the chances of them having to cover claims has soared as the economy has slowed. Small wonder, then, that their share prices plummeted this week—proving that the market has already decided they no longer deserve such lofty ratings and creating a vicious downwards spiral. Ambac’s falling share price has severely dented it chances of raising fresh capital.
There are already signs that the insurers’ woes are contagious. On Thursday Merrill Lynch wrote down $3.1 billion on debt securities that it had hedged with ACA and other bond insurers. Other banks have also made writedowns to reflect their lack of confidence in ACA’s ability to meet its commitments. The full extent of the “counterparty risk” banks face in dealing with bond insurers is only now becoming apparent Jamie Dimon, the boss of JP Morgan Chase, has said that the fallout from the bond-insurer crisis could be “pretty terrible” for the debt markets. If a big insurer such as Ambac or MBIA were to take a tumble, that could look like an understatement.
BHP Billiton Says Western Australia Iron-Ore Profit Climbed 13%
By Jacob Greber and Rebecca Keenan
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said it boosted profit from its Western Australian iron-ore operations by 13 percent last year.
Earnings before interest and tax on iron rose to $27 per metric ton from $24 a ton a year earlier, Melbourne-based BHP said in a presentation posted on the company's Web site today.
BHP, which is bidding for Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company, said it plans to increase iron-ore production in Western Australia's northern Pilbara region to 300 million tons per year by 2015 from a current 108 million tons. London-based Rio, which rejected BHP's $110 billion hostile takeover offer, has said it plans to triple iron-ore production in the same region to 600 million tons.
BHP wants to combine its iron-ore operations with Rio to be able to deliver more metal faster and cheaper to Asian steel mills. The price of iron ore could rise 70 percent this year because of a global supply deficit, Credit Suisse Group said Jan. 17.
Iron-ore prices have risen for five years as China boosted output of steel, helping Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, Rio and BHP post record profits.
Rio's production of iron ore in Western Australia has risen at an annual compound rate of 14.8 percent since 1999, compared with 6.8 percent for BHP's operations in the state, Rio said Jan. 16.
Rio, the second-largest exporter of iron ore, this month completed a $1.4 billion expansion of Dampier Port in Western Australia, lifting iron-ore capacity by 90 percent. It has commissioned three 250,000-ton iron-ore ships, it said Jan. 7.
BHP said plans to expand capacity at its Port Headland shipping terminal are ``well advanced.'' The company is in negotiations with the Port Headland Port Authority to increase capacity in the port's inner harbor to 200 million tons per year, according to the presentation.
Rio declines to speculate on BHP bid
January 20, 2008
Takeover target Rio Tinto Ltd on Sunday declined to comment on speculation that rival miner BHP Billiton Ltd is on the cusp of making an improved bid for Rio.
Rio's share price in London jumped nearly five per cent on Friday amid speculation that a revised bid from BHP Billiton was imminent.
BHP Billiton has made an informal proposal of three of its shares for each Rio share, valuing the target around $US110 billion ($A126 billion).
Rio has rejected the proposal.
Analysts have said a revised offer might comprise 3.5 BHP Billiton shares for one Rio share, plus a cash component.
On December 21, the UK Takeovers Panel set a deadline of February 6 for BHP Billiton to announce its intention to make a firm and formal offer, or cease stalking Rio.
Rio chief executive Tom Albanese was asked on Sky News on Sunday if he expected a revised bid from BHP Billiton soon.
"I wouldn't comment on speculation. There's been an awful lot of speculation," Mr Albanese said.
He said that back in November last year, when BHP proposed a takeover of Rio, Rio had rejected the proposed offer as "not even close to matching that value equation".
"I'm as confident about that as I was back then," Mr Albanese said.
Asked if a cash addition or an increased share component to BHP's offer would be beneficial to Rio shareholders should the share market keep falling, Mr Albanese said: "Again, it's all about value.
"If the value's not there, it's not there. If it is there, it is there, but I wouldn't want to speculate."
Mr Albanese said that in the last few months it had been important to let investors know that Rio was a "great business to be investing in".
"The markets are good. We see a multi-decade demand outlook in India, in China," he said.
"We have a great organisation, we have great assets, great businesses. I love what we've got."
Mr Albanese said Rio's production in the last quarter had been very strong, and demand continued to be strong.
"For virtually everything we produce, if we produced any more, we'd still be selling it," he said.
"The demand is still driving very strong markets."
Asked if China would increase its demand for aluminium from Rio, Mr Albanese said that in 2007 demand had been stronger than anticipated.
He said demand for aluminum had lifted about 30 per cent in 2007.
"I would say we're seeing some moderating of that, but (we're) right on target with the 15 per cent (increase in demand) year-on-year between 2008 and 2007," he said.
"So all the numbers that we've talked about over the past few months, if anything, they're looking stronger."
Mr Albanese said demand for iron ore continued to be strong, and if anything, iron ore markets were tighter now than they were a few months ago.
"And I'd say from talking with our iron ore marketing team and in their discussions with the customers, it's the tightest that they've seen in years," he said.
Mr Albanese said that talk of getting a 70 per cent increase in iron ore prices from China very much reflected the very, very strong iron ore market.
On Friday on the local sharemarket, shares in Rio Tinto rose $5.40 to $124.00. BHP closed $1.70 lower at $34.80.
Late selling pushes ST Index down after earlier recovery
Bargain hunting aids post-lunch rebound but STI ends lower as traders close positions
BY GOH ENG YEOW, Markets Correspondent
19 January 2008
IF INVESTORS’ nerves were not shot before trading started yesterday, they surely were by the closing bell, after an afternoon rebound took the sting out of a heart-thumping plunge in the morning.
The roller-coaster ride took the Straits Times Index (STI) on a 103-point swing as blue chips first lost most of their spectacular Thursday gains and then clawed much of them back again.
“The stock market was initially savaged by a knee-jerk selldown, following by a knee-jerk selldown, following sharp losses on Wall Street,” said a dealer yesterday.
But then, in an amazing turnaround, markets across Asia made a spectacular recovering on hopes that the United States would take drastic action to ward off a recession.
This enabled the STI to jump 30 points after lunch, with bargain-hunters back in force to snap up badly oversold blue chips such as DBS Group Holdings and United Overseas Bank.
The STI almost recovered to Thursday’s close of 3,139.88 but ended 35.63 points down at 3,104.25, on a late spate of selling as traders closed their positions before the weekend.
Overall trading volumes were also boosted by the volatility and slightly berserk atmosphere in the market these days, with a hefty 2.07 billion shares worth $2.32 billion changing hands yesterday.
The recovery was more dramatic elsewhere. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both lost over 3 per cent early on but still closed in the black.
“Share prices have fallen to attractive valuations. So for the second day, we are seeing traders buying stocks like hot cakes, worried that they may miss out on any rally which accompanies the anticipated Fed rate cut,” said a remisier.
Funds snapped up blue chips whenever the STI fell close to 3,000 points, underlining the strong support the benchmark index has been finding at this level.
“Traders are getting a roller-coaster ride, as the STI gyrates between 3,000 and 3,150. They buy when it falls to the 3,000 to 3,050 level, and sell when it hits 3,130 to 3,150,” noted AmFraser Securities senor vice-president of research Najeeb Jarhom.
The wild swings unsettled Singapore Exchange, which closed 28 cents down at $9.55, after falling to an intra-day low of $9.11. Banking giant DBS halved its loss, recovering from a morning low of $18.32 to end 46 cents down at $18.68.
Shipbuilders also clawed back part of their morning losses.
Traders were reacting to a note by Credit Suisse that explained why the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks commodities shipping costs, has fallen 37 per cent since last November. Investors feared the diving index might be a signal that the booming global commodities trade was slowing and could thus affect demand for new ships.
But Credit Suisse felt that demand for shipping had not been reduced, but had been merely delayed by the protracted negotiations between China and Brazil.
This had caused 50 shipments of iron ore earmarked for China to be cancelled. “When negotiations are concluded, we could see a strong rebound in the Baltic Dry Index, given the current tightness in the shipping market,” it added.
Cosco Corp closed nine cents down at $4.85, after sinking to $4.64 at one point. Yangzijiang closed six cents down at $1.48, after falling to as low as $1.43.
荷兰基金拒投资中石油
2008年1月19日
荷兰养老基金PGGM表示,鉴於中石油公司在苏丹的经济活动,PGGM将停止在该公司投资。
PGGM是荷兰第二大投资基金,拥有880亿欧元。PGGM表示,由於与中国石油天然气股份有限公司的会谈没有成功,因此决定撤走在该公司的5000万美元投资。
在苏丹达尔福尔的人道危机上,西方国家一直在向中国施加压力,要求北京减少在苏丹的投资。
PGGM还表示,因道德原因,它还拒绝对另外四家公司进行投资。
Friedman Unit First NLC Financial Files Bankruptcy
18 January 2008
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc. subprime mortgage subsidiary First NLC Financial Services LLC sought bankruptcy protection, becoming the latest casualty of the deteriorating U.S. housing market.
The unit of the Arlington, Virginia-based investment bank listed debt of between $50 million and $100 million and assets of between $10 million and $50 million in Chapter 11 documents filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Friedman said Jan. 11 that it would put the unit into bankruptcy as the parent no longer expected to recover the remaining $12 million it had invested in Boca Raton, Florida- based First NLC. The unit joins more than 100 subprime mortgage specialists that sold, closed or filed for bankruptcy in 2007 as foreclosures reached a record high in the third quarter.
Friedman said in its Jan. 11 announcement that it will liquidate the business through a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, continuing a plan to sell off the business. In July, it sold most of the unit to buyout firm Sun Capital Partners Inc., as the two together injected $75 million to revive the subsidiary.
Friedman kept a 20 percent stake that would help it participate in a recovery in the mortgage industry, the company said at the time. First NLC, founded in 1987, originated more than $7.4 billion in mortgage loans in 2006.
Friedman lost $18 million from the sale of mortgage loans in the fourth quarter, and said in December it planned to write down $20 million in loans. It also took a loss of $215 million in the third quarter in connection with the sale of First NLC.
The twenty largest unsecured creditors are owed $15.3 million. The three biggest unsecured creditors listed in court documents are Goldman Sachs Mortgage Co., owed $5 million; HSBC Mortgage Services, owed $3 million; and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., owed $2.1 million.
Friedman spokeswoman, Lauren Burk, didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.
The case is In re First NLC Financial Services LLC, 08- 10632, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of Florida (West Palm Beach).
Bracing for the crunch of a world economic recession
INSIGHT DOWN SOUTH
By SIAH CHIANG NEE
January 19, 2008
The pulse of the Singaporean consumer is weakening, hammered as he is on both sides – a painful stock market fall and the highest inflation in 25 years.
IT'S the sale of the year, so says the salesman shouting over a hailer at a suburban mall: “LCD TV sets for only S$990 (RM2,270) each cash-and-carry, usual price S$1,350 (RM3,100).”
“Promotion only for three days,” proclaimed an overhead banner.
Elsewhere, shops were promoting cheaper computers (tabletop for S$999, or RM2,290) as well as branded clothes, cameras, jewellery and other luxury goods to catch the pre-Lunar New Year shoppers.
Even prostitutes, many of them from China, are offering special “discounts” to make as much money as possible from the Lunar New Year crowds in Chinatown, a newspaper reported.
According to Shin Ming Daily, they are charging customers S$50 (RM115) instead of the usual S$70-S$80 (RM160-RM180).
My letterbox is stuffed with more brochures than I can count, screaming offers for products ranging from cosmetics to canned abalone, from post-holiday tours to gym equipment.
This pre-festival sale is nothing unusual. This year, however, as the city gears for a downturn, there is a greater degree of urgency over previous occasions.
The pulse of the Singaporean consumer is getting weaker as he gets sandwiched between two evils – a painful stock market fall and the highest inflation in 25 years.
His biggest concern, however, is the prospect of a world economic recession.
The statistics show what could be the start of a trend regarding Singaporeans’ greatest addiction: shopping. In November, the retail index unexpectedly fell by 0.3% after a gain of 3.8% in the previous month.
“Many businessmen see the coming festival as the last chance to sell their products before trouble hits,” a stockbroker said.
“After that, a consumer lull is likely to settle in.”
Sales of cars and high-end property have begun to fall, not to mention share values. The latest involves taxis.
In a spontaneous reaction to the official fare increases that many drivers opposed, many customers have abandoned taxis for public transport.
Last week, at the Singapore General Hospital, I saw so many empty cabs cruising for passengers that they were contributing to the traffic jam.
A pall of gloom has descended on this city over the big sharp stock market sell-off and the feared global recession.
“I fear for the consequences. Tens of thousands of people, from the super-rich to heartland retirees, have suffered losses,” said a remisier who has seen many financial storms in the last 30 years.
The punters include workers, housewives and university students, who had been attracted by last year’s market boom.
Some are now facing bankruptcy because of the forced sale of their devalued shares, which were bought on borrowed money.
In an uneasy environment the biggest risks are in luxury goods, which have had a good run in recent years.
“People are already buying less, and fewer are eating in restaurants,” the remisier noted.
This pessimism is in contrast to the relative exuberance of a strong economy over the past four years. That momentum was still evident until recent weeks.
It is also contrary to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew’s expression of confidence that Singapore will emerge stronger in the next five years whether or not there is a downturn in the United States and Europe.
Lee said Singapore would be “at a different plateau” by 2012.
“The old Singapore, we are leaving behind,” he said.
Many feel that while last year’s 7% growth (this year’s projection: 5% or less) was great news for the nation, the benefit to the people could have been much less than thought possible.
Already hit by inflation, many are now struggling with stock losses that could take years to resolve.
“My hands are cold and my heart pounds every time I read news from Wall Street and see my stocks plunging by the minute,” said an investor who has lost S$150,000 (RM344,000) in just one month.
The main stock index has fallen 20% in just two months.
Slowly, Singaporeans are getting used to living with a global economy and with the realisation that a strong GDP does not immediately mean strong earnings for workers.
Another is that irrespective of sound local fundamentals, the republic can be dragged down by a banking crisis half a world away.
“Asians are paying the price of overspending and over-borrowing by Americans; and with no say on the matter,” a Chinese-language teacher lamented.
Apart from the all-embracing government policies, the property and stock markets are factors that most affect Singaporean lives – and both face poor prospects in the coming year. (Malaysians are the second-biggest foreign buyers of property here.)
Economists who have seen all this before say they will recover and move higher, but while it lasts the ripples will be widely felt on people’s jobs, incomes and spending.
Last year, property prices shot up by a dramatic 27%, with more than 14,800 new private homes sold – or 1,200 a month.
In December, however, only 305 deals were done.
For the tens of thousands of troubled families, the immediate crisis is managing losses in the stock market.
In a Channel News Asia online survey involving 27 traders:
> Almost half (47%) declared they had lost up to S$50,000 (RM115,000);
> Some 14% admitted to losing S$50,000-S$150,000 (RM115,000-RM344,000); and,
> Three persons said they had lost more than S$1mil (RM2.3mil).
The chat site reflects many of the painful individual – and family – woes, with workers losing an equivalent of several months to a few years of their salary.
One said the recent crash would result in him working for 10 months without pay to clear his debts.
“I don’t know how to tell my wife. She may divorce me,” he moaned.
21 January 2008
ROBINSON & CO
Forcing Riadys’ Hands/Implications For Broad Market
• Al Futtaim of Dubai has launched a voluntary conditional offer for Robinson’s at $6.25 cash per
share, conditional on it getting >50% of the Singapore oldest retailer.
• Three major minority shareholders of Robinson’s have given an irrevocable undertaking to accept the offer. They are:
- Silchester Int’l, with 9,719,007 shares or 11.31%;
- Aberdeen Asset with 7,518,040 shares or 8.75%; and
- Tecity with 2,687,046 shares or 3.13%.
• The Riadys, through Auric Pacific, seized control of Robinson’s without having to launch a general offer, buying 25,705,481 shares or 29.91% stake from OCBC/GE Life in 2006.
In the event of a higher counter-bid, Al Futtaim will share the difference with the 3 shareholders.
COMMENTS
1. Al Futtaim’s offer is generous, coming in at 41% premium over Robinson’s undisturbed price, and
133% above the latest book NTA of $2.68 per share.
2. The question is will the Riadys accept. Note their $7.90 entry is equivalent to $6.47 today after
adjusting for the dividends, including the special $1.00 per share in 2006, amounting to $1.43 per share, before the ousting of Michael Wong, the former Chairman of Robinson’s.
3. They are therefore unlikely to accept Al Futtaim’s offer.
4. Note that Robinson’s is a stock with many individual shareholders:
- Top 20 (including OCBC/GE Life’s shares) jointly own 57,725,097 shares or 67.17%, ie
- 4,486 shareholders, many of whom have been shareholders for years and years, jointly own the balance of 28,212,397 shares or 32.83%.
5. In view of the general market weakness, Al Futtaim may well succeed in getting acceptance in respect of at least 23.05 mln shares or 57% of the shares not held by the Riadys and the 3 shareholders mentioned above (ie excluding OCBC/GE Life which still have a combined 5.2 mln shares or 6.05%), to make the offer unconditional.
6. Upon which, we would expect the Riadys to then hand in their shares, since there is little point in being “locked in” with a <30% stake.
7. Given our views all along, we would be inclined to accept Al Futtaim’s offer. Like all general
offers, it is however better to wait for the formal offer document, to get a better understanding of the Arabs’ plans for the retailer, and also the advice of independent advisors.
8. Perhaps just as important, the offer for Robinson’s is the third takeover offer in Singapore since the start of the year. What is important is that the offer prices for Ascott, Straits Trading and Robinson’s, all established names, are at generous premiums to their last traded prices and all near their peak market prices (quite unlike the M&As in 2007), suggesting offerors recognize the value of their respective targets, and are prepared to pay up.
Nikkei down more than 3 pct to two-year closing low
TOKYO, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average ended Monday down 3.9 percent at its lowest close since Oct 2005, battered by selling of bank shares and investor dumping of blue-chip shares on disappointment at a U.S. economic stimulus proposal.
Advantest (6857.T) and other chip-related shares continued to fare poorly, while Softbank Corp (9984.T) extended its losses after Japan's third-largest wireless carrier said it would unveil a new service, including a new fee system, later in the day. The benchmark Nikkei .N225 closed at 13,325.94 after shedding 535.35 points. It was its lowest close since Oct. 25, 2005. The broader TOPIX fell 3.56 percent to 1,293.74.
The Good News About the Recession
Maybe it will finally teach Americans how to compete globally.
By Daniel Gross
16 January 2008
A recession may be upon us, which would mean fewer jobs, declining tax revenues, and sinking consumer confidence.
But for some (congenital Bush-bashers, the Irvine Housing Blog, critics of rampant consumerism), the parade of bad news is an occasion for schadenfreude. They enjoy seeing inhabitants of the formerly high-flying sectors that got us into the mess—real estate and Wall Street—being laid low. Others hold out hope that a recession will iron out distortions in the housing market, thus allowing them to move into previously unaffordable neighborhoods. Some econo-fretters hold out hope that reduced imports and the weaker dollar—both likely byproducts of a recession—will help close the trade deficit. And a few killjoys believe recessions can be morally uplifting. "High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life," as Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon put it in the disastrous aftermath of the 1929 crash and ensuing Depression. Not for him stimulus packages and enhanced unemployment benefits. "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate." (Thanks in part to such comments, voters liquidated Republicans for a generation.)
Given this legacy, arguing that something good could come out of a recession would seem as cockeyed as, say, arguing that good things come from bubbles. But in this instance, if you delve deeply into the black economic clouds, it might be possible to detect a lining that looks a little like silver.
Lets assume for the next 500 words or so that we're in a recession. This is an odd moment in the global economy. In the past, a U.S. recession would have been really bad news for our trading partners. (When America sneezes, the world catches a cold.) This time around, it's likely to be marginally bad news. A recession will take a bite out of China's growth, but just a bite. Around the world, things are going gangbusters. In 2006, 104 countries grew at more than 5 percent, and most kept up that pace in 2007. None of the world's other major economies (save perhaps Japan) is in imminent danger of shrinking.
The juxtaposition of a shrinking U.S. economy with a continuing global boom should function as a wake-up call. Yes, we matter. But we don't matter nearly as much as we used to. Between 2000 and 2006, according to Goldman Sachs, America's share of global GDP fell from 31 percent to 27.7 percent. Last year, with the pace of U.S. economic growth lagging that of the world, the slippage continued. In January 2001, the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ accounted for 48.4 percent of the globe's stock market capitalization. In December 2007, by my calculation of data from the World Federation of Stock Exchanges, that proportion had fallen to 31.4 percent.
The world is running away from us. The volume of global trade in merchandise has been increasing rapidly. And it's not just the United States importing goods from China. It's China importing natural resources from everywhere and building infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa, sub-Saharan Africa buying oil from the Persian Gulf, Dubai investors purchasing Indian real estate, Indian builders buying German engineering products and services, and German engineers buying toys made in China. With each passing day, an increasing number of transactions in the global marketplace do not involve the United States. We're still a powerful engine. But the world's economy now has a set of auxiliary motors.
All of which means that American companies, entrepreneurs, middle managers, and MBA students need to become more global—or perhaps change the definition of what global means. Sure, large American companies like McDonald's and Coca-Cola already derive well over half their revenues from overseas. And blue-chip firms that have been focused on the domestic markets are rushing to establish overseas presences, from Starbucks to the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. According to Standard & Poor's, in fiscal 2006, the typical member of the S&P 500 notched 44.2 percent of sales outside the United States. That's impressive. But it's not good enough. That means, for example, that the typical huge American firm still relies on the United States—which is about one-quarter of the global economy—for most of its sales. And when the single market you rely on for most of your revenues ceases to grow, business very quickly devolves into a zero-sum game with your domestic and international competitors.
The percentage of American executives with overseas experience and foreign-language skills is minuscule, which is one of the reasons gigantic U.S. firms are increasingly hiring CEOs who hail from abroad. Vikram Pandit, the new chief executive officer of Citigroup, is the latest example. And plenty of companies are still wedded to a strategy that relies almost exclusively on selling products and services to American customers. Chrysler sells 90 percent of its cars in the United States. In today's economy, especially with U.S. consumer demand shrinking, that's simply not good enough.
The characterization of Americans as nativists incapable of dealing with foreigners is a caricature. But compared with the growing ranks of sophisticated, well-capitalized competitors in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, many American companies simply haven't committed to being aggressive players in the global economy. Which is why this odd recession could function as a wake-up call for Americans to get passports, buy some Berlitz tapes, and start thinking of foreign markets not simply as a place to source cheap goods or raise expensive capital, but as the new home market.
Chip Eng Seng awarded S$188 million contract to build HDB housing in Queenstown
21 January 2008 - Chip Eng Seng Contractors (1988) Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of SGX-ST mainboard listed Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd, has been awarded a contract worth S$188 million by the Housing & Development Board for the construction of 1,394 dwelling units at Queenstown. The contract also includes the construction of a multi-storey carpark, linkbridges, a roof garden, an education centre and other facilities. Building works are expected to begin in February 2008 and to complete by 2011.
This is Chip Eng Seng’s first construction contract won for 2008. With construction demand on the
rise, Chip Eng Seng expects its construction division to be busy with tenders and construction work this year. “After many lack lustre years, an up turn in the construction industry is in view. We are very positive about our prospects for 2008”, said Mr Lim Tiam Seng, Executive Chairman, Chip Eng Seng.
As at June 2007, Chip Eng Seng has a construction order book of about S$590 million that will take the group through to 2011. The company is undertaking two other HDB housing projects, one in Sembawang and the other is the Pinnacle @ Duxton, which features seven 50-storey residential blocks with skybridges, communal and commercial facilities. When completed, Pinnacle @ Duxton will be the tallest public housing in Singapore.
Asia Markets Tumble on US Worries
By Yuri Kageyama
Monday January 21, 10:34 pm ET
Asian Markets Extend Losses Amid Worries That US Is Headed for Recession
TOKYO (AP) -- Global stock markets extended their shakeout into a second day Tuesday, plunging amid worries that a possible U.S. recession will cause a worldwide economic slowdown. The dramatic declines were expected to spread to Wall Street, where stock index futures were already down sharply hours before the trading day began.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index, the benchmark for Asia's biggest bourse, skidded 4.4 percent in morning trading to 12,738.31 points, after dropping 3.9 percent Monday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 5.2 percent after plunging 5.5 percent the day before.
"Unless we get some positive 'shock effects,' such as drastic measures from the U.S. government, there is almost no hope for a recovery in stocks," said Koji Takeuchi, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo.
U.S. markets were closed Monday for a holiday commemorating civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. But Wall Street future prices were down sharply, portending a plunge when trading begins at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time.
Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 436 points, or 3.6 percent, at 11,670, while Standard & Poor's 500 futures were down 57.1 points, or 4.3 percent, at 1,268.
Markets have been plunging amid pessimism about the ability of the U.S. government to prevent a recession. The Federal Reserve has indicated it will lower interest rates further, and President Bush has proposed an economic stimulus package that includes $145 billion in tax cuts, but investors around the world are doubtful that the measures will lift the economy quickly.
The U.S. economy has been battered by a slump in the housing market and a credit crisis that has led to billions of dollars of losses among major U.S. banks.
In Europe Monday, investors also dumped stocks, sending the Britain's benchmark FTSE-100 down 5.5 percent and France's CAC-40 Index sliding 6.8 percent. Germany's blue-chip DAX 30 plunged 7.2 percent to 6,790.19.
Takeuchi said investors feel that the selloff is spreading worldwide, setting off fears of a global downturn. Risks of economic contraction have been growing in Japan as both exports and consumer spending are weakening, he said.
Kirby Daley, strategist at Newedge Group, said the Nikkei could shed another 10 percent to 15 percent to the 11,000 level in the next few months. Japanese companies depend on exports and capital investments to keep up profits, and both are endangered if there is a U.S. slowdown, he said.
"The argument that valuations are cheap for Japanese stocks is flawed," Daley said. "The basis for those earnings valuations doesn't consider ongoing problems in the U.S. economy, which are likely to get worse."
Even usually upbeat Japanese Economy Minister Hiroko Ota acknowledged that downsides risks are growing, given the volatile markets and surging oil prices.
"The economy keeps recovering as recent production data show, but downside risks are growing these days," Ota told reporters.
Chinese Bank Shares Fall Sharply
By Joe Mcdonald
Monday January 21, 7:42 am ET
Chinese Bank Shares Fall Sharply on Reports Lenders Facing Possible Subprime Writedowns
BEIJING (AP) -- Shares in China's banks fell sharply Monday after news reports said its No. 2 lender, Bank of China, might write down holdings of U.S. mortgage securities and two others increased reserves for possible losses.
The reports were the first indication that Chinese lenders, which have so far avoided damage from the U.S. credit crisis, might face problems due to their holdings of subprime securities.
Also Monday, China's banking regulator warned that lenders might face risks from fluctuations in fast-rising real estate prices.
Bank of China is expected to announce a "significant writedown" on its $7.95 billion in U.S. subprime mortgage securities, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post newspaper reported, citing unidentified sources.
Bank of China spokesman Wang Jianping declined to comment. He said the bank would release details of its assets in late March when it announces annual earnings.
Bank of China shares fell 4.1 percent in Shanghai market and by 6.4 percent in Hong Kong. China's biggest banks are listed in both cities, with shares in Shanghai off-limits to most foreign investors, while Hong Kong is open to global traders.
The fall in bank stocks helped to drive overall market declines in both cities, with Shanghai's main index sinking 5.1 percent and Hong Kong plunging 5.5 percent -- its biggest percentage drop since 2001.
"The subprime woes in the U.S. have raised concerns at home about risks in the domestic mortgage market and prompted selling in banking and real estate companies," said Wang Junqing, an analyst at Guosen Securities in Shanghai.
Bank of China, China's biggest owner of subprime mortgage securities, said in October they were 3.05 percent of its total holdings. The bank said it had set aside $473 million for potential writedowns.
Bank of China reported profits of 15.9 billion yuan ($2.12 billion) for the July-September quarter, up 23 percent from the same period of 2006. It says it has more than 5.8 trillion yuan ($775 billion) in assets.
Two other major lenders, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, are increasing reserves for possible writedowns on subprime mortgage holdings, the respected Chinese business magazine Caijing reported.
ICBC, China's biggest commercial lender, raised reserves to cover 30 percent of its subprime holdings, while Construction Bank's reserves covered 40 percent of its holdings, the magazine said, without citing sources.
The two banks' subprime holdings are much smaller than those of Bank of China, at about $1 billion each, and writedowns should not affect their profits, the magazine said.
Phone calls on Monday to the press and investor relations offices at both ICBC and Construction Bank were not answered.
ICBC shares fell by 7.8 percent in Hong Kong and 3.8 percent in Shanghai, while Construction Bank was down 6.4 percent in Shanghai and 4.1 percent in Hong Kong.
China's banks have seen revenues and profits soar in recent years, driven by a fast-growing economy and rising real estate prices.
But the country's industry regulator warned in a report released Monday that they might face higher risks from fluctuating real estate prices and financial conditions.
"Property market price fluctuation possibly could increase credit risks facing the banking industry," said Jiang Dingzhi, vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in a report on the agency's Web site.
Jiang gave no details but called on banks to improve risk management.
Chinese regulators have raised interest rates repeatedly over the past year and tightened lending standards in an effort to cool a boom in investment in real estate and other assets. They have warned repeatedly that runaway spending could lead to a debt crisis if investors in ill-conceived plans default on loans.
曾渊沧：照 原 定 計 劃 再 減 持
2008年01月22日
恒 指 終 於 跌 破 24000 點 的 心 理 支 持 點 ， 支 持 點 一 破 ， 產 生 極 大 的 心 理 壓 力 ， 所 有 藍 籌 股 的 股 價 就 一 瀉 千 里 ， 上 午 時 還 能 逆 市 上 升 的 地 產 股 ， 例 如 港 鐵 （ 066 ） ， 最 後 也 急 跌 。 多 數 股 民 在 驚 慌 時 首 先 賣 掉 的 往 往 是 近 來 賺 最 多 錢 的 股 ， 而 不 是 虧 損 股 ， 因 此 ， 當 整 體 市 場 情 緒 變 得 悲 觀 時 ， 甚 麼 好 股 也 一 樣 會 跌 。
我 不 會 建 議 你 買 「 當 頭 跌 」 博 反 彈 ， 我 從 來 就 很 少 博 反 彈 ， 不 過 ， 好 的 股 跌 了 一 定 幅 度 後 ， 是 時 候 買 入 當 長 線 投 資 。
我 在 之 前 有 向 大 家 建 議 ， 一 旦 恒 指 跌 破 24000 點 ， 應 該 大 幅 減 持 ， 暫 時 撤 出 市 場 。 昨 日 我 依 計 劃 在 恒 指 跌 破 24000 點 時 再 減 持 ， 不 過 ， 長 實 （ 001 ） 與 匯 控 （ 005 ） 沒 有 減 。 長 實 不 減 ， 是 因 為 我 依 然 看 好 本 地 房 地 產 市 場 ； 匯 控 不 減 ， 是 因 為 已 經 持 有 太 多 年 ， 有 了 一 份 感 情 。 我 現 在 只 等 匯 控 公 佈 業 績 ， 業 績 越 差 我 就 越 有 興 趣 買 入 ， 然 後 超 長 期 持 有 。
股 市 劇 烈 波 動 ， 你 最 需 要 的 是 EQ 。
大 跌 市 考 驗 EQ
EQ 是 如 何 從 容 地 面 對 大 跌 市 ， EQ 是 如 何 能 冷 靜 的 分 析 ， 尋 找 抗 跌 股 。 當 年 沙 士 期 間 ， 思 捷 （ 330 ） 股 價 依 然 逆 市 向 上 ， 因 為 思 捷 的 主 要 銷 售 區 是 德 國 ， 不 受 沙 士 影 響 ， 再 加 上 歐 元 升 值 ， 現 在 ， 你 能 不 能 冷 靜 地 想 一 想 ， 甚 麼 股 能 對 抗 美 國 衰 退 ？
EQ 是 當 你 減 持 股 票 ， 持 有 大 量 現 金 時 ， 不 會 手 癢 癢 地 不 斷 想 博 反 彈 ， 能 有 耐 性 地 長 時 間 持 有 現 金 等 待 真 正 的 低 價 買 股 的 機 會 。
最 後 ， EQ 就 是 自 己 對 自 己 有 信 心 。 當 然 ， 你 更 需 要 相 信 ： 「 命 裏 有 時 終 須 有 ， 命 裏 無 時 莫 強 求 。 」 最 最 最 重 要 的 是 保 持 心 理 健 康 、 輕 鬆 。
每 一 個 股 民 最 大 的 弱 點 就 是 當 股 市 大 跌 時 ， 感 到 驚 慌 、 六 神 無 主 ， 無 法 冷 靜 分 析 ， 也 無 法 當 機 立 斷 ， 出 現 在 心 中 的 只 是 主 觀 願 望 ， 沒 有 能 力 在 股 災 發 生 的 初 期 當 機 立 斷 地 減 持 。 相 反 的 ， 更 多 人 如 果 手 上 有 錢 ， 還 有 「 溝 淡 」 ， 結 果 越 是 「 溝 淡 」 ， 股 價 越 跌 ， 最 後 手 上 的 現 金 用 完 了 ， 股 價 再 跌 也 沒 錢 買 便 宜 貨 。
股 市 不 會 一 跌 到 底 ， 跌 一 跌 ， 一 定 會 有 反 彈 。 實 際 上 ， 熊 市 的 反 彈 是 大 戶 造 出 來 的 ， 目 的 就 是 讓 自 己 可 以 趁 反 彈 撤 走 ， 當 大 戶 在 反 彈 時 撤 走 後 ， 股 市 就 會 進 入 無 底 深 淵 。
王冠一: 英 股 鎊 匯 不 宜 憧 憬
2008-01-22
英 國 樓 價 繼 12 月 下 跌 3.2% 之 後 ， 1 月 份 再 滑 落 0.8% （ 平 均 每 間 23.04 萬 英 鎊 ） ， 這 已 是 連 續 3 個 月 錄 得 下 跌 。 不 過 倫 敦 市 中 心 屋 價 不 跌 反 升 ， 1 月 份 平 均 價 39.85 萬 英 鎊 ， 究 竟 是 12 月 份 跌 得 過 急 （ 下 挫 6.8% ， 是 1992 年 以 來 跌 得 最 勁 之 月 份 ） 後 的 迴 光 反 照 ， 抑 或 真 有 承 接 力 ？
一 如 美 國 ， 英 樓 市 下 滑 ， 消 費 必 受 影 響 ， 12 月 消 費 並 沒 有 因 聖 誕 及 新 年 刺 激 而 有 起 色 ， 該 月 數 字 竟 錄 得 下 降 0.4% ， 差 不 多 是 全 年 最 低 ， 足 見 不 景 之 風 已 開 始 吹 襲 。
英 官 出 口 術
英 國 將 於 周 三 公 佈 07 年 第 4 季 GDP 增 長 ， 一 般 分 析 員 估 計 ， 會 由 第 3 季 的 0.7% 下 降 至 0.5% ， 倘 如 是 ， 則 全 年 經 濟 增 長 將 由 3.2% 拖 低 至 2.8% ， 是 兩 年 來 最 差 ， 但 仍 屬 芸 芸 工 業 國 中 表 表 者 ！
樓 市 滑 落 、 消 費 不 前 ， 通 脹 卻 未 見 回 落 ， 據 官 方 數 字 ， 12 月 CPI 錄 得 2.1% ， 高 過 央 行 訂 定 目 標 2% 上 限 。 其 實 英 國 通 脹 目 標 據 聞 在 2.5% 才 對 ， 那 麼 央 行 豈 不 是 有 減 息 空 間 ？ 市 場 預 期 2 月 調 低 利 率 0.25 厘 幾 可 肯 定 ， 可 是 不 知 怎 的 ， 竟 有 官 員 跳 出 來 高 喊 小 心 通 脹 肆 虐 ， 不 排 除 是 「 出 口 術 」 防 止 英 鎊 跌 勢 過 急 ， 到 時 候 真 係 輸 入 通 脹 矣 ！
人 們 若 想 知 道 決 策 者 對 目 前 經 濟 及 通 脹 看 法 ， 不 妨 留 意 明 日 英 倫 銀 行 發 表 的 1 月 份 會 議 紀 錄 ， 或 可 從 中 找 到 點 端 倪 。
全 球 經 濟 將 受 美 國 或 有 機 會 邁 向 衰 退 拖 累 ， 英 國 難 獨 善 其 身 ， 須 知 高 利 率 、 高 鎊 匯 已 令 製 造 業 叫 苦 連 天 ， 負 債 率 奇 高 的 英 國 國 民 又 沒 ATM （ 樓 房 再 融 資 ）襟 ， 加 上 金 融 及 其 相 關 行 業 愁 雲 慘 霧 ， 經 濟 實 在 堪 憂 ， 股 市 及 鎊 匯 也 不 宜 憧 憬 矣 ！
王冠一: 別 犯 原 則 性 錯 誤
2008-01-23
全 球 股 市 出 現 大 災 難 ， 冠 一 雖 然 僥 倖 測 中 ， 但 說 實 話 ， 心 情 欠 佳 ， 皆 因 香 港 不 少 散 戶 被 套 ， 徒 兒 更 接 到 打 來 嚎 哭 的 電 話 ， 汝 道 又 怎 不 心 往 下 沉 ？
美 國 次 按 衍 生 的 問 題 開 始 浮 現 ， 筆 者 早 前 還 認 為 布 殊 總 統 必 力 挽 狂 瀾 ， 不 讓 經 濟 有 陷 入 衰 退 之 虞 ， 不 然 兩 仔 爺 都 衰 （ 退 ） 收 尾 ， 豈 不 貽 笑 大 方 ？ 故 只 推 測 美 國 或 出 現 滯 脹 （ stagflation ） 的 機 會 較 衰 退 大 。
散 戶 爭 相 走 避
可 是 見 近 期 一 眾 財 金 官 員 好 像 胸 有 成 竹 ， 眼 見 火 勢 已 蔓 延 開 去 ， 也 只 懶 懶 閒 說 會 大 幅 減 息 ， 跟 住 搞 個 到 喉 唔 到 肺 的 甚 麼 振 興 經 濟 方 案 ， 導 致 本 來 一 直 力 撐 的 大 戶 ， 見 決 策 者 如 小 朋 友 玩 泥 沙 般 ， 連 一 點 緊 張 之 情 也 沒 有 ， 頓 然 心 灰 意 冷 ， 以 擲 貨 作 為 不 滿 和 洩 憤 之 表 現 。 股 市 是 反 映 經 濟 狀 況 及 前 景 的 照 妖 鏡 ， 連 精 明 的 美 股 投 資 者 也 覺 暗 淡 ， 經 濟 大 有 機 會 邁 向 衰 退 ， 大 眾 爭 相 走 避 ， 怎 不 觸 發 一 場 如 戲 院 失 火 般 的 環 球 股 災 ？
至 目 前 為 止 ， 全 球 80 個 主 要 股 市 中 ， 有 38 個 技 術 上 已 進 入 熊 市 區 域 ─ ─ 股 市 在 12 個 月 內 由 高 位 跌 超 過 20% 。 這 兩 日 跌 勢 突 轉 急 ， 不 少 跌 個 四 腳 朝 天 ，
簡 直 慘 不 忍 睹 。
大 戶 自 身 難 保
投 資 者 當 下 無 論 輸 贏 ， 也 總 要 冷 靜 和 理 性 對 待 ， 既 然 是 大 跌 市 或 熊 市 ， 千 萬 別 犯 了 原 則 性 的 錯 誤 。 換 言 之 ， 別 偷 雞 博 反 彈 ， 反 而 應 該 趁 每 次 反 彈 減 持 ， 甚 或 拋 空 （ 例 如 買 熊 證 ） ， 如 斯 洶 湧 滑 落 的 走 勢 ， 大 戶 也 分 分 鐘 走 唔 切 ， 還 何 來 子 彈 或 心 情 炒 番 上 去 ， 為 閣 下 解 困 ？
曾淵滄：心理壓力大宜減少持股
2008年01月23日
恒指再跌2000點，我跑得快，從去年11月開始，分批沽售，目前的現金與股票的比例是70%對30%，心理上相當輕鬆。剩下的30%則無論股市如何變化都不會賣了，這包括持有17年的控（005）與持有20年的長實（001），反正已經持有這麼多年，再繼續持有也無妨。我自己感到輕鬆，但我絕對不會幸災樂禍，我也很明白許多散戶在很高的價格才入市，這不單單是香港的股民，而是全世界的股民。上海A股在過去兩天也跌得很慘，印度更糟糕，一連兩天，跌幅為全球之冠。跌市的最大元兇是升市，全球股市從2002年至2005年這段時間開始向上，股價上升數以倍計。升得多，跌得重是千古不易的道理，我自創的所謂「曾氏通道」就是這麼簡單的道理。牛市之後就是熊市，熊市之後又是牛市。現在，大家應該怎麼做？有人建議博反彈，如果你手上現金多，我不反對博反彈。股市在一輪急跌之後一定會有反彈，只可惜我們很難知道在甚麼價位博反彈最理想。博反彈有一半機會博中，一半機會博不中，如果只打算投機性的博反彈，記住要定下止蝕位。
定下止蝕位可博反彈
有人滿手被套牢了的「蟹貨」，怎麼辦？你首先得問一問自己，繼續持有這批貨，你晚上睡得好嗎？你白天吃得下飯嗎？如果有壓力，則寧可虧損也應該盡快減持，減到你不感到壓力為止，減持後就不要再問股價，否則，不幸你一賣股票之後，股價馬上反彈，你又後悔了。如果你能忍受壓力，那麼不妨整理一下自己的股票組合，留下藍籌股。長期而言，股市只會升不會跌，不要忘記股神畢菲特是如何發達的？他會在這次股災中賣光股票嗎？不會的，他手上的股票，有不少已經持有30年以上了，經歷過多少牛市、熊市？舉個例子，假設你很不幸，在1973年那一場最恐怖的熊市發生前，以最高價買入股票。如果你能忍受之後的熊市打擊而堅持不賣股，持有至今，你仍然有不錯的回報。當年恒生指數1700點，目前恒生指數21000點，盈利仍有11倍，折合為每年複利8%的回報，再加上大約2%的股息，總回報率10%。這已是最不幸的人的回報率，如果你是隨機性的入市，或長期不間斷地買入恒指成份股，則平均每年回報率為13%，再加2%股息。希望，今天你讀了這篇文章之後，今晚睡個好覺。
酒每穿肠催客泪，
花曾入梦伴君眠。
旧愛如花花易逝，
前情似水水难留。
Never Say Goodbye - Hayley Westenra
If I could take this moment forever
Turn the pages of my mind
To another place and time
We would never say goodbye
If I could find the words I would speak them
Then I wouldn’t be tongue-tied
When I looked into your eyes
We would never say goodbye
If I could stop the moon ever rising
Day would not become the night
Wouldn’t feel this cold inside
And we’d never say goodbye
I wish that our dreams were frozen
Then our hearts would not be broken
When we let each other go....
If I could steal this moment forever
Paint a picture-perfect smile
So our story stayed alive
We would never say goodbye
《永远不说再见》
如果我可以把这刻永远停留
把我们的思维翻向新的一页
到另外一个时间和空间去
我们就永远不会说再见
如果我能找到适合的语言我会说出来
那么当我看着你的眼神的时候
我就不会感觉到口吃
我们就永远不会说再见
如果我可以阻止月亮升起
白天就不会来临
我内心就不会感觉这么冷
我们就永远不会说再见
我希望我们的梦想都冻结
那我们的心就不会破碎
当我们让对方离开的时候。。。
如果我能永远的偷走这刻
画一张完美的笑脸
那我们的故事就不会死去
我们就永远不会说再见.
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