BANGKOK - LOYALISTS of Thaksin Shinawatra, poised to emerge as victors in today's general election, said the former prime minister will return from exile early next year, signalling another period of political turbulence in Thailand
留着青山在，不怕没柴烧
君子报仇，十年不晚
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BANGKOK - LOYALISTS of Thaksin Shinawatra, poised to emerge as victors in today's general election, said the former prime minister will return from exile early next year, signalling another period of political turbulence in Thailand.
Mr Chalerm Yoobamrung, a parliamentary candidate of the People Power Party (PPP) - a reincarnation of Thaksin's former party - said at a campaign rally on Friday night that Thaksin would come home from his self-imposed exile in London on Valentine's Day, Feb 14.
But party leader Samak Sundaravej later said his colleague might have been joking about the exact date, adding that the former premier would return about a month after the election.
Ousted in a bloodless military coup 15 months ago, Thaksin faces a slew of corruption charges, but is still so popular among the rural masses that he holds the key to today's balloting, which pits Mr Samak's party against the Democrat Party headed by Mr Abhisit Vejjajiva.
Mr Abhisit, 43, born in England and educated at Eton and Oxford, is regarded as an intelligent and honest politician, but lacking the common touch needed to connect with the mass electorate - something mastered by Thaksin, and to some extent by Mr Samak.
Mr Abhisit said yesterday that he would allow Thaksin, who is visiting Hong Kong, to return 'to face charges here so justice will prevail'.
Polls showed that the PPP, considered a reincarnation of Thaksin's outlawed Thai Rak Thai party, would probably garner the most votes, but fall short of an outright majority.
A coalition government of the Democrats, the country's oldest party, and smaller parties is seen as a possible outcome.
Barring last-minute disqualifications, about 5,000 candidates from 39 political parties will be contending for 480 seats in Parliament's Lower House.
Irrespective of today's results, the prospect of Thaksin's return will surely create further political polarisation and raise fears of another coup by the powerful military.
Last week, the country's military-installed Parliament approved a controversial internal security law that critics warned will allow the military to maintain a grip on power even after the election.
The new law will allow the Internal Security Operations Command, or Isoc, to order curfews, restrict freedom of movement and curb the powers of government officials in situations deemed harmful to national security.
Despite the sharp political divisions, the national deputy police chief, General Wichien Photphosri, said that no 'unwanted incidents' are expected today.
Nonetheless, he said that some 200,000 police officers and soldiers would be deployed nationwide to ensure security.
Some observers have questioned how free and fair the election will be as more than one-third of the country, including Thaksin's strongholds in rural north-eastern provinces, is still under martial law.
'There have been no real policy discussions in this election. The only issue here is whether you love Thaksin or hate Thaksin,' said Dr Ukrist Pathmanand, professor of political science at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
Meanwhile, the revered Thai King, in a message on Friday to new generals and officers recently promoted to top ranks, urged the armed forces and police to be a strong pillar in the country.
'The country now is still not in order. But you can restore the order and make it strong with your strength,' King Bhumibol Adulyadej was quoted as saying by the Bangkok Post newspaper。
青山依旧在，几度夕阳红！
养乒千日，用在一时。
Thai political parties begin quest for coalition govt
BANGKOK - THAILAND'S rival political parties began battling on Monday to cobble together a coalition government after loyalists of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra emerged victors but failed to gain an absolute majority in parliamentary elections.
The pro-Thaksin People's Power Party won nearly half the seats in Sunday's balloting in a striking rebuke to the generals who forced the billionaire populist from power in 2006. The outcome appeared to be a recipe for continuing political instability.
With nearly all the vote counted, the People's Power Party - established after Mr Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party was disbanded by court order earlier this year - had won 228 of the 480 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to the state Election Commission. Complete results were due later on Monday.
'I would like to call for all political parties to join us in forming a strong government,' PPP leader Samak Sundaravej said at a news conference. 'I will certainly be the prime minister.' He said Mr Thaksin, who was in Hong Kong, had telephoned to offer his congratulations.
The second-place Democrat Party took 166 seats, while Chart Thai captured 39.
Spokesman Kuthep Saikrajang said the PPP was eyeing Chart Thai and another smaller party as it tried to line up enough seats to form a government. Chart Thai declined to comment on the overture.
Democrat Party
'If the PPP succeeds in forming the government, the Democrat Party is ready to be in the opposition to protect the people's interest. However, if the PPP fails to form a government, the Democrat Party is also ready to form a government,' said Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejajjiva.
The PPP got most of its support from the rural north and northeast, where Mr Thaksin's programmes, including universal health care and generous village development funds, won a hard-core following.
The Democrats ran strongest in Bangkok, where the 2006 movement to oust Mr Thaksin was centred. Only seven of 39 competing parties won parliamentary seats. About 60 per cent of 45 million eligible voters cast ballots for about 5,000 candidates.
Instability
If the PPP comes to power, said Nakarin Mektrairat, dean of Thammasat University's Faculty of Political Science, 'there will be tension and conflicts,' in part because of its lack of support from the capital's residents.
Thai politics has been in almost constant turmoil since early 2006, when protests mushroomed demanding that Mr Thaksin step down, despite his party's landslide victory a year earlier giving it an absolute parliamentary majority.
An April 2006 election was boycotted by the opposition and later declared invalid by the courts, leaving Mr Thaksin's government in limbo until the Sept 19 coup last year. But the military-appointed interim government that succeeded it proved weak and indecisive, failing to restore public confidence.
Mr Thaksin was abroad at the time of his ouster, and has since stayed in exile. He is legally barred from office, his party has been dissolved by the courts, and he has been charged with a slew of corruption-related crimes.
Despite having vowed retirement from politics, he burnished his image from afar, with such moves as the purchase of England's Manchester City soccer club, buying into the sport's popularity in Thailand.
Mr Thaksin's PPP allies announced last week that he would return to Bangkok early next year, after a new government is installed.
Mr Samak said that, if possible, the PPP would grant amnesty to Mr Thaksin and 110 other executives of his now-disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, who were barred from office for five years. 'They didn't do anything wrong,' he said.
Despite its victory at the polls, the PPP could face an uphill battle in trying to form a government.
The forces that helped unseat Mr Thaksin - the military, Bangkok's educated middle class, and the country's elite, including elements associated with the country's monarchy - have worked hard to erase Mr Thaksin's political legacy.
They changed the constitution to limit the power of big parties and sought to demonise him as a corrupt destroyer of democracy. His return could undo their efforts and put their own positions in jeopardy.
Mr Thaksin's allies could see their tally of seats fall by 10-20 as claims of vote-buying are investigated by the Election Commission, which has been hawk-eyed in looking for PPP irregularities. A reduced total from disqualifications would complicate the task of assembling a ruling coalition.
Thailand's long-term prospects for political stability seem poor.
Mr Samak, a veteran right-wing politician who has served in several Cabinets and as governor of Bangkok, has been a divisive figure for decades.
The blunt-speaking 72-year-old Mr Samak 'doesn't have a conciliatory personality. He is aggressive and uncompromising,' said Narong Phetprasert, an economist at Chulalongkorn University.
Critics say Mr Abhisit, 43, British-born and educated at Eton and Oxford, may lack the toughness necessary to keep together a coalition of parties out to get the biggest share of power they can grab.
Disqualification
The possibility of some election winners being disqualified was also likely to complicate the formation of a government.
Sodsri Sathayatham, a member of the Election Commission, said at least 24 could be disqualified while re-elections might be necessary in a dozen cases. The Commission, which will meet on Wednesday to begin investigations, was barraged by hundreds of complains of vote-buying and other violations of electoral law.
US welcomes poll reports
In Washington, the State Department, which had criticised the coup against Mr Thaksin, said it welcomed reports that the polls were held in a free and fair manner and congratulated the Thai people 'on taking this crucial step toward a return to elected government.'
Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the US calls on all sides 'to respect the results, and for a fair and transparent process for the adjudication of any disputes or fraud claims.'
The current holders of the European Union presidency, Portugal, described Sunday's polls as 'an important milestone on the road back to constitutional order.'
Polls gone well
A group of Asian election observers said that it had concerns over the secrecy of the ballot and reports of vote buying, but generally the polls had gone well.
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