Third judge in corruption hearing
Wednesday, 7 January 2009
Death of graft-buster not murder, court rules
The former deputy chairman of the Xinzhou People’s Political Consultative Conference was jailed for six years yesterday for reckless driving that led to the death of top Shanxi graft-busting official Jin Yinhuan.
670,000 Small Firms Shut; Jobless Rate Doubled
Grim economic conditions forced more than 670,000 of the mainland’s small firms out of business, and real unemployment was more than double the official rate last year, according to leading economic analysts.
Housing Market a Drag on into 2009 and Beyond
2009 will be a year of adjustment for the real estate industry. The bearish market may end in the second half of 2009, but a 21st-Century Real Estate insider said a rebound in the second half of 2009 didn’t mean price hikes. Any boom in a real sense, with rising housing prices, won’t come until 2011 at the soonest.
GM China Sales Growth Slumps to 6% in 2008
General Motors Corp posted a 6-percent growth in its China vehicle sales in 2008, the lowest growth rate in at least six years, the US carmaker said on Tuesday, reflecting the stagnant market amid the financial crisis and a lack of attractive models.
Chang’an Auto Sales Down 4% in 2008
Chongqing Chang’an Automobile Co, the Chinese listed partner of troubled US car giant Ford, sold 739,307 cars in 2008, down 4 percent from the previous year’s figure of 770,546 units, the company said on Tuesday.
‘Comply or Explain’: SGX Must be Stricter
I refer to the letter ‘Thoughts on SGX’s regulatory stance’ by Mak Yuen Teen (BT, Dec 23) and ‘Buyer beware and seller beware too’ by R Sivanithy (BT, Jan 1).
Enough Safeguards to Avoid Conflicts: SGX
Excluding directors of listed firms from SGX board would limit talent pool
SGX Has Robust Framework as a Self-Regulatory Organisation
We refer to the letter from Mr. Mak Yuen Teen, ‘Thoughts on SGX’s regulatory stance’ (BT, Dec 23, 2008).
SGX Strikes Balance as Market Operator
We refer to the article, ‘SGX should set governance benchmark’ by Oh Boon Ping (BT, Dec 25).
Warrant Turnover Down 25% in 2008
But volatile markets also make it more difficult for banks that issue warrants to hedge their risk. As a result, there were 31 per cent fewer new warrant listings in 2008 - just 1,184 compared with 1,724 a year earlier - as issuers turned more cautious.
Tuesday, 6 January 2009
IPOs in China to Jump 47%
Funds raised by Chinese companies in local initial public offerings are likely to rise 47 per cent this year compared with last year, accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers said on Tuesday.
Laguna En-bloc Saga - Charged with Mischief
Businessman Lee Kok Leong, 62, is alleged to have inserted glue into the padlock, main wooden door and rear gate keyholes of a flat at Block 5000E, Laguna Park, Marine Parade Road, at 12.44am on Aug 25 last year.
Moment of Truth in Fighting off Depression
Unless Congress gets its act together, Obama’s stimulus plan will be delayed or downsized
2009: China’s Year of Rising Opportunities, and Challenges
In 2009, China, along with the rest of the world, is at a new historical starting point. The largest post-Cold War change in the world situation is taking place in response to the global financial crisis and economic recession, a rebalance of the global economy. The change will not be sudden and catastrophic but a gradual and, it is profoundly to be hoped, peaceful evolution, and will run from to the middle of the 21st century.
Monday, 5 January 2009
Beijing Eases Sales Tax to Lift Property Market
Tax deductions or exemptions have been added to cuts in the flat rate of taxes levied on property sales on the mainland in a bid to stimulate the floundering market, but analysts believe the measures will have only a marginally positive effect and that more relief is in the pipeline.
Workers Bear Brunt of Vehicle Industry Slump
Workers in the mainland vehicle industry face a tough winter as car plants across the country shut down for extended holiday breaks to trim production in line with falling demand.
Paralyzed Finance
Fiscal policy alone cannot repair the damaged trust in the financial system. Monetary policy has come to its limits as well.
Hope for a Stronger Manufacturing Sector
China’s Next 30 Years: Manufacturing is crucial to pushing the Chinese economy to the top
Private Equity Losses Sting Chinese Investment Arms
The Chinese government may have lost billions of dollars during the financial crisis when private equity investments vanished.
2 China Women Seek Court Review for Right to Stay Here
They want High Court to order ICA to issue work and study passes
China’s Mounting Pink Slips
As startling as these factory closures have been, the fate of another less-heralded figure may be more significant: the laid-off office worker.
Concerns Over CFOs Quitting
For some firms, the role of the CFO may have evolved over the years so that this staff member is more of a strategic planner or investor-relations chief.
Look to Sell into Strength or Risk Being Bear-Trapped - Again
For most of 2008, the advice given in this column was to selectively buy the dips but to always sell into strength because all bounces would eventually turn out to be bear traps.
China to Boost Auto Sector
China will announce measures in the first quarter to keep its slowing auto sector growing at about 10 per cent annually during the global economic slowdown, state media reported on Monday.
1 in 5 Mulling Leaving Hong Kong
One in five Hong Kong residents is considering leaving the city because of its dire air quality, a survey released on Monday has found, raising fears over the financial hub’s competitiveness.
Straits Asia Resources
1) MACD crossover.
2) Strong enough to break out of wedge.
Resistance 0.955, 1.03 and 1.220.
SMM
1) One more LT line to clear.
2) MACD trending towards 0.
3) Stochastic has more upside.
Resistance 2.06, 2.18 and 2.30.
China’s Young Get Thrifty
China’s office workers are tightening their belts, cutting back spending on everything from clothes to fast food, despite government efforts to boost consumption to stave off the worst effects of a global recession.
Detox Diet - Fact or Fad?
Detox diets that claim to be able to cleanse one’s body of toxins are growing in popularity but some say that it is just pop science.
Goodbye 2008 - Andy Xie
Many governments are trying to boost asset markets directly. The US suspended short-selling for a period. Pakistan and Russia closed stock markets from time to time. China cut stamp duties. These measures have had little effect for a good reason. Most of the reductions in asset prices are due to bubble bursting, i.e., the prices were too high before, not too low now. For example, the average price-book ratio for the US stock market for the past eight decades is 2. The current level is 1.7, not a big discount from the historical norm.
Sunday, 4 January 2009
A Remedy Better Than Painkillers
China’s next response to the global economic crisis should embrace opportunities with a new development model.
Shanghai Official Commits Suicide
An official perhaps affiliated with Chen Liangyu’s graft scandal jumped from her balcony.
China Eases Controls for Property Market
Relaxed rules for credit and mortgages could brighten a gloomy real estate market. But banks are treading carefully.
Did Chen Snack His Way Through a Hunger Strike?
A security camera in his cell recorded him nibbling on snacks at night, a Taiwanese magazine reports.
Cheating is in Chen Shui-bian's blood/gene.
Big Hopes for Emerging Market Stocks
Emerging-market stocks fell the most ever last year but investors are looking for Brazil, Russia, India and the mainland to lead a reversal in 2009.
Chinese Aim for the Ivy League
The book spawned a genre, selling more than two million copies in China on the premise that any child, with the proper upbringing, could be Ivy League material.
Continued Growth Could Make Mainland Shares a Good Bet
Despite mainland share prices suffering a dramatic fall last year, it is still too early to write off their long-term investment potential.
Elite Lawyers Spent Only 12 Days in Court Last Year
Each Senior Counsel spent, on average, just one day in the Court of Appeal last year and another 11 days arguing a trial in court.
12,000 Protest Israeli Attacks
About 12,000 people marched through London on Saturday in protest against Israel’s military offensive on Gaza, police said, in a demonstration that began peacefully but ended in a string of arrests.
Dollar the X-Factor in Commodity Markets
“The US is going to print the dollar to get out of the recession, and anything tangible, like industrial metals, is going to be worth more.”
China’s Car Makers Urged to Learn from U.S. Crisis by “Thinking Small”
There’s a lesson for China’s car makers in the fate of the ailing U.S. auto industry: develop smaller, fuel-efficient models instead of betting on gas-guzzlers, industry analysts have warned.
US Stocks Face Headwinds Despite New Year Rally
Experts cautioned that the advances of the key indices came amid very low trading volume as many investors were still on holiday.
Ezra
Ezra's chart is very similar to SMM's. Many oil related stocks are showing the same pattern. Can refer to comments in SMM post. Only difference is Ezra hasn't broken out of the wedge yet.
Saturday, 3 January 2009
Hushed IPO Scene Expected Over the Next Six Months
This follows a 77.2% plunge in IPO funds raised last year to US$1.21b from US$5.3b a year earlier.
Thakral Brothers Reschedules $800,000 Debt to Thakral Corp
Amount to be paid in three instalments by April 30 or earlier on same terms announced in March 2007
Will 2009 be the Year of the ‘Two-Tier’ Market?
Trading this week lent support to this description as a push on index stocks helped the STI rise 104 points or 6% over the week to 1,829.71
Indian Tycoon Tops Forbes List of Biggest Losers
Indian tycoon Anil Ambani, chairman of Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG), has topped Forbes’ list of the biggest billionaire losers of 2008. He is estimated to have lost US$30 billion, or more than 71 per cent, of his net worth, settling at just US$12 billion now.
Widespread Misuse of Quake Funds Uncovered
The National Audit Office’s latest probe has uncovered billions of yuan in improperly used funding and materials earmarked for the May 12 disaster relief efforts.
Sanlu Chief May be Scapegoat, say Observers
With speculation rife that former Sanlu Group chairwoman Tian Wenhua will be sentenced to death, observers have warned that could make her a scapegoat and distract from the systemic problems revealed by the melamine-in-milk scandal.
Olam
1) 13MA and 34MA crossover;
2) MACD crossing over 0;
3) Stochastic crossover.
One more LT line to break.
SMM
1) SMM broke out and closed above the upper wedge lines;
2) MACD trending upwards;
3) Stochastic also trending upwards.
Previous attempt on 17/12/08 to break the LT lines only managed to close below the 2nd LT line. Friday's closing managed above the 2nd LT line, shows greater strength to break through the LT lines.
Noble
Previous attempt on 18/12/08 to break out of the LT lines failed, stochastic was coming off from high level.
Current attempt to break out of the LT lines is easier because:
1) LT lines are closer and more congested now meaning less resistance;
2) ST lines are just beginning to expand.
3) MACD just cut up;
4) Stochastic trending up nicely.
Resistance levels are 1.10, 1.17 and 1.31.
Dreamers can hope for 1.66. Dreaming is free!
Our 2009 Financial Predictions - Bad News
We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. One guideline will be a falling overshoot of PE’s on our largest, so-called international corporations posting lows of 4 to7. Today, many of them are near 18. What does this tell us about the severity of our projections?
Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930’S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.
Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%. The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that. By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALLTIME 1930’S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED. SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE. WE PREDICT REAL, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%. IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.
Woman Allowed $11,300 Monthly Spending
An elderly woman, 92, whose $8.9 million account has been frozen by OCBC Bank pending a psychiatric test, has been allowed to take $11,300 a month from her account by the High Court.
Tenants Leaving with Debt Unsettled
The economic crisis is posing a new problem for landlords: tenants who break leases or even skip town without notice, leaving debts in their wake.
Friday, 2 January 2009
Contradictions in China, and the Rise of a Family
In the 1950s, the Liu family of southwest China’s Sichuan Province was so short of food, they sent one of their youngest sons to be raised by another family.
Today, however, they are one of China’s richest families.
Today, however, they are one of China’s richest families.
Angry Buyers Clash with Developer Wing Tai over Alleged Defects
An ugly spat – that has already resulted in a police report lodged against a homeowner – is brewing between listed property giant Wing Tai and some foreign investors of its three –year-old luxury condo near Orchard Road.
More Upside for US Dollar Against Asian Units Predicted
Asia well-positioned to ride out the worst of storm in first half of 2009, say banks
Lower Dividends on the Cards as Earnings Wither
But blue chip companies likely to maintain payout ratios
As Recession Deepens, So Does Milk Surplus
The long economic boom, fuelled by easy credit that allowed people to spend money they did not have, led to a huge oversupply of cars, houses and shopping malls, as recent months have made clear. Now, add one more item to the list: an oversupply of cows.
Was Whole Economy a Ponzi Scheme?
And it is in this way that we are all Ponzi limited partners: We too thought our retirement funds and houses were growing miraculously, though ours was an illusion fuelled by debt rather than fraud, and we too made plans based on those asset values that now stand in ruins.
“The financial system as a whole has had the characteristics of a Ponzi scheme if we look at it fundamentally,” said Lee, who was very early in warning about deflation.u
“The financial system as a whole has had the characteristics of a Ponzi scheme if we look at it fundamentally,” said Lee, who was very early in warning about deflation.u
Investment Bankers Face Uncertain Landscape
For investment bankers who arrange the sale of stocks and bonds, 2008 was a year to forget, and the new year may not bring instant relief.
Experts Glum about Guangdong
Guangdong has rapidly lost its competitive edge to other provinces, and its traditional export-driven model means it will be the jurisdiction worst hit by the global financial torment, according to a provincial think-tank’s annual report.
PLA Said to Eye Four Carriers
The People’s Liberation Army may build up to four medium-sized aircraft carriers by 2020, with the first two being launched in six years, a military source said.
Sleep Disorders: Proper Diagnosis Vital
Doctors say it is important to find out the underlying cause of insomnia so that it can be treated properly and the appropriate medication be dispensed.
Who’s Behind Bio-Treat’s Key Creditor, Shareholder
Holders of Bio-Treat’s convertible bonds (CBs) are probably feeling more uncertain about whether they can recover their investment, as it now appears that resolving Bio-Treat’s default on a loan has taken on a higher priority. Yet no one is any the wiser as to who that creditor really is.
Thursday, 1 January 2009
STI Suffers ‘Window-Undressing’
Most analysts expect a difficult year ahead with much uncertainty shrouding the economic outlook
S-Chips Bear Brunt of Battering
Many companies with China links now trading at a fraction of their old value
As Trade Slows, China Rethinks its Growth Strategy
At Hong Kong docks, the stacks of shipping containers that used to loom above the highway overpass are gone. Logistics managers say they negotiate deeper discounts every week on ships that are leaving half empty.
Hedge Fund Manager Slams Peers for Curbing Clients’ Access to Cash
John Paulson, who runs the US$36 billion hedge fund firm Paulson, has some harsh words for his peers and their tendency this year to block or curb clients’ attempts to get their money back.
China Bull Prefers Mainland Shares Traded in HK, Singapore
Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he has been buying shares of mainland companies even as growth in the world’s fourth-largest economy slows.
Time to Rethink Excessive Trust in Central Bankers
Like the United States, during the past decade, Japan and many European nations saw how concentrating so much power in the hands of a few unelected officials can be dangerous.
The risks were personified by Alan Greenspan, Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006. Dubbed the “Maestro” in a gushing book by Bob Woodward, Mr. Greenspan became a one-man think-tank. What he said affected everything from taxes to regulation to trade to debt issuance. Few dared question a man seen back then as a guru.
The risks were personified by Alan Greenspan, Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006. Dubbed the “Maestro” in a gushing book by Bob Woodward, Mr. Greenspan became a one-man think-tank. What he said affected everything from taxes to regulation to trade to debt issuance. Few dared question a man seen back then as a guru.
Guangdong Economy Hit by Beijing’s Policies, says Governor
Guangdong Governor Huang Huahua has admitted publicly for the first time that the provincial economy has been battered by central government policies restricting the export manufacturing industry, according to mainland media reports yesterday.
Yogis Have Better Sex, Study Finds
Eastern enlightenment proved to be sexually beneficial for men and women
Asia in for a Hard Time in 2009
Liquidity is likely to get tighter but it’s a sharp drop in exports across the region that will be most painful
Asia Should Prepare Now for Prospect of New Crises
And now for the next crisis . . . or crises. It might seem that we have already run the full gamut of emergencies with the sub-prime crisis being followed by the collapse of financial institutions, the credit crunch and the crisis of bank lending, leading on to the collapse of economic growth. But that would be wishful thinking and the New Year will bring fresh trials.
High Time for Countering Export Inertia
More work is needed if China truly wants an economic growth model based on domestic consumption, not exports.
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