Monday, 15 June 2009

‘Optimism in property market won’t last’

Analysts point to over-supply and weak rental demand

China May Be First and Last out of Recession

China may be the last one to say goodbye to the recession, because it has to make “difficult adjustments” to transform its economy from exports-driven to domestic consumption-oriented.

Friday, 12 June 2009

Celestial NutriFoods in a bind

It announces that it is unable to pay $274m to bondholders by today

Celestial's executive chairman and chief executive Ming Dequan holds 28.37 per cent of the company, according to Bloomberg data.

China to allow resumption of IPOs, sets new rules

China’s securities regulator is allowing initial public offerings (IPOs) to resume after a nine- month hiatus after setting new rules that are expected to improve the odds for smaller investors.

Investors pouring good money after bad into black hole

In other words, the new loans being made now are good money being poured after bad into a black hole. The growth investors are banking on will be poor quality at best, and the stock valuations that their money is supporting are looking seriously over-extended.

OZ Minerals shareholders approve US$1.39b asset sale to China Minmetals Group

Shareholders of OZ Minerals Ltd yesterday approved a plan to sell US$1.39 billion of assets to China Minmetals Group to cut debt after the Chinese company sweetened its offer on Wednesday to fend off rival proposals.

Raffles Education shares pull back on placement news


Mr. Chew: The controlling shareholder and chief executive did not raise his stake by taking more shares

Singapore poised for IPO rebound: Merrill Lynch

Singapore may be poised for its first $1 billion initial public offering (IPO) since 2006 as rallying stocks lure companies back to equity markets, Bank of America Corp’s Merrill Lynch unit said.

Surge in China investments beats forecasts

Figures reinforce evidence that it’s leading others on recovery path

True Singapore drivers live by this code

You’ve heard of The Da Vinci Code. Now, insurance company AXA has cracked an even greater puzzle: The Singapore Motorist’s Code. Incidentally, this has nothing to do with the Highway Code because local drivers are not aware of that either.

Yuan could become Asia’s leading currency

It’s hard to know whether Washington or Tokyo should be most concerned over the fact that China is beginning to flex its muscles with regard to the international role of the yuan.

But judging from past experience, it appears likely that Japan will respond to China by competitive moves to promote the yen. This would be a great pity. The world badly needs a third reserve and transaction currency to complement a declining dollar and an emerging euro.

Sportswear retailer targets US$200m in IPO

Mainland sportswear retailer 361”ยบ International is following in the footsteps of its four biggest domestic rivals by seeking a market listing.

Oil on the Roil — Handle with Care

Oil prices have more than doubled since the near $30 lows this past winter, tracking the stronger equities markets. Will crude continue to be hot, or are we in for a cold spell?

In China, too many buyers chasing too few cars

Tax cuts and subsidies help fuel waiting lists

China’s Commodity Buying Spree

Strong buying by China has helped lift commodity prices around the world this spring, but growing evidence suggests that a sizable portion of this buying has been to build stockpiles in China, and may not be sustainable.

China WindPower to invest 500m yuan in projects

China WindPower Group, whose shares soared threefold in the past six weeks, plans to plough 500 million yuan (HK$567.15 million) into 10 projects that require a combined 5 billion yuan of investment.

Thursday, 11 June 2009

China growth story needs to be more convincing

Investors are tamping down exuberance in view of worrying signs

China's World-Beating Car Market Showing Signs of Weakness

China's auto market has lately turned over more than a million cars a month for three straight months, and ranked No.1 in the world for five straight months. In the first five months of this year, China's passenger car sales grew 54.7%, year on year. The industry is rubbing its hands and wondering whether such good fortune can last.

After Rocking the Rally, Pros Are Hoping for Stock Pullback

After enjoying a three-month ride off the March lows, Wall Street is now bracing for payback time – a mild retreat that many market experts actually think would be healthy.

Iron Price Wrestling Peaks for Chinese Steel

China’s steel mills are refusing to rubber stamp price reductions hammered out by iron ore suppliers and other Asian buyers.

CSRC Final IPO Reform Rules To Take Effect June 11

The final rules will also seek to reduce the number of shares that carry a lock-up period, increasing the number of securities available for trading on the secondary market. It did not elaborate.

Seditious tract duo jailed eight weeks


‘Common sense dictates that religious fervour to spread the faith, in our society, must be constrained by sensitivity, tolerance and mutual respect for another’s faith and religious beliefs,’ Judge Neighbour said.

Auto Industry Wants Government Support Measures Extended

Auto sales in China have surged for three consecutive months, as government policies designed to give the sector a boost took effect.

Morgan Stanley Garner Says Emerging Stocks Are ‘Secular Bull Market’

Emerging markets may offer the only “secular bull-market” among global stocks, led by economic and earnings growth in China, Morgan Stanley said.

JPM Eyes “The Biggest Bull Market Of Your Career”

0325 GMT [Dow Jones] JPMorgan Chief Asian and Emerging Markets Equity Strategist Adrian Mowat says in press briefing that with inflation low, a very powerful, synchronized policy response from governments, central banks, there’s likely to be a sustained period of above-trend growth in major economies starting in 2010; calls it “the biggest bull market of your career.” Adds in emerging markets, risk premia had been highly compressed, but with economic growth likely to be better than expected, analysts will start revising up earnings forecasts. Is Overweight cyclical markets where investors currently Underweight, such as South Korea, Taiwan, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand; Underweight Malaysia, Eastern Europe, South Africa, Singapore, HK, Australia. Also likes tech, commodities, consumer discretionary stocks. (AJP)

Wednesday, 10 June 2009

Private banks have failed their customers

Private banking as an industry used to make a virtue out of being dull. Maybe, with hindsight, that wasn’t such a bad thing.

Mayor paid his way to top

Disgraced Shenzhen mayor Xu Zongheng had spent millions of yuan trying to buy his way to the top position in the city and had angered many parties with his arrogant behaviour, sources said.

China Eyes 35% Share of Global Shipbuilding by 2011

The government will support qualified companies pursuing listings and issuing bonds, and expedite the process of setting up an industry investment fund.

8 weeks jail for sedition


Ong Kian Cheong, 50, a SingTel technical officer, and his wife, Dorothy Chan Hien Leng, 46, a UBS associate director, were found guilty on May 28 of four charges of sedition after an 11-day trial

Liquidity’s Role in Delusions of Recovery

Chinese market rallies, commodity prices and U.S. improvements are fuelling hopes of an economic turnaround. Don’t be fooled.

Rio Tinto’s ‘perfidy’ slammed

A Commentary by China’s official Xinhua news agency on Wednesday slammed Rio Tinto’s ‘perfidy’ for scrapping a deal with Chinalco, saying the agreement fell apart due to ‘possible political prejudice’.

Andy Xie: Tight Spot for Fed, Blind Spot for Investors

If you are a speculator and confident you can get out before it crashes, this is your market. If you think this market is for real, you are making a mistake and should get out as soon as possible. If you lost money during your last three market entries, stay away from this one – as far as you can.

Rongtong Rat Trading Exposes Loopholes

A securities probe that rooted out an alleged rat trader was limited in scope by regulations that may be letting the big ones get away.

Tuesday, 9 June 2009

Censorship fears after edict over porn filter

An aggressive move against online pornography that will force computer makers to pre-install a parental-control program has raised concerns about a fresh attempt by the mainland to increase internet censorship.

Censorship fears after edict over porn filter

An aggressive move against online pornography that will force computer makers to pre-install a parental-control program has raised concerns about a fresh attempt by the mainland to increase internet censorship.

BHP Billiton’s Price Plan for a Soft Market

In an interview, CEO Marius Kloppers said he backs flexible pricing for iron ore buyers and plans to sell uranium to China.

China’s got all that money and nowhere to spend it

China is ground zero for one of modern history’s greatest resource grabs. Massive investments in Latin America, Africa and Asia have delighted many politicians anxious to revive economic growth. In more developed economies, though, China is hitting its share of resistance or misfortune.

Guangzhao Industrial gets further extension for debt

Singapore Exchange-listed firm Guangzhao Industrial Forest Biotechnology Group has won another extension to repay more than US$8 million (S$11.6 million) to bondholder Liberty Harbor.

OZ Minerals sticking to Chinese deal

It rejects last-minute unsolicited US$1.2b refinancing proposal from Canadian bank

Statue aims to restore ‘truth’ about war heroine


The statue of wartime agent Zheng Pingru shows her at the moment of her execution by the Japanese.

Commodity price rally not the recovery signal many believe


Yet although the surge in commodity prices has had far-reaching effects, some observers are beginning to question whether the rally - like the rise in stock markets - might have run dangerously ahead of economic reality, and to wonder if prices may now be primed for a nasty fall.

Monday, 8 June 2009

Multinationals look to grow in the wind

On the outskirts of Shanghai, German engineering giant Siemens began construction on a 581-million-yuan wind power equipment plant in late May that marks the company’s entry into China’s wind energy market.

China’s new PCs to block sites

China’s government wants all PCs sold in the country from July 1 to be loaded with software that blocks certain websites, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

Oil price rise not sign of recovery

Despite higher prices, supply and demand data is still lacklustre

2009 plumbs the depths in barren spell for IPOs

Even a pickup in the second half may not salvage a year that has seen only 3 new listings so far

“Hot Money” at the Gates of China’s Market

A surge in market liquidity from large security offerings in the United States combined with a more optimistic view of China’s economic recovery and currency, the RMB, has resulted in a flood of “hot money” into Hong Kong, the gateway to investment in mainland China. “Hot money” is the Chinese term for capital awaiting investment in a project.

Chinese economy bottoming out, but to stage U-turn recovery

Chinese economy has bottomed out and is stabilizing against the global economic downturn, but it would go through a U-turn recovery as a quick recovery could hardly be sustained, a researcher with the country’s top think tank said in Beijing on Sunday.

China may shun Australia deals after Rio saga

China may question the wisdom of investing in Australian resources after Rio Tinto last week spurned a multi-billion-dollar link-up for a joint venture with bitter rival BHP Billiton, analysts say.

Bitterness and betrayal for writer let down by best friend

“My life has been ruined since June 4, 1989, and there are too many like me, who pursued democracy out of pure motives for this country but suffered by having to live humble lives afterwards. It’s time for the country to apologise.”

Cosy private banker-client ties can sour

Banks and rich clients go together like champagne and caviar, but there are times when the silky smooth relationship turns toxic.

Chinese consumers can’t power recovery

To turn spenders, savers first need social safety net, real income growth

No Tobacco Day finds little support on the smoky mainland

More than 60 per cent of Chinese males aged 15 and older are habitual smokers, and 540 million people nationwide are affected by second-hand smoke, according to the Worker’s Daily.

Smoking poses major dilemma for mainland

Yesterday was World No Tobacco Day, but it was very hard to find any genuine effort to use the occasion to discourage smoking on the mainland, the world’s largest producer and consumer of tobacco.

More To Come As China Grabs Resources

Another week, another China resources deal in Australia. This time, it’s Metallurgical Corp. of China arranging $3.1 billion in financing for Waratah Coal and taking a 10% stake in the company.

Too many players make a pawn of profits

The atmosphere is tense, there’s dead silence and an air of intense expectation at the end of a fierce bidding war. It’s not Sotheby’s or Christie’s; just a regular scene at the monthly pawnbrokers’ auction.

Veteran actor and memorable movie villain Sek Kin dies at 96


Veteran actor Sek Kin, known for his portrayal of villains in Chinese cinema, died yesterday. He was 96.

Worst is over for economy: UOB-Kay Hian report

Upcoming IRs expected to boost tourism, services & construction sectors

Mainland markets are poor prognosticators

Do fundamental investors set prices on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock markets? The mainland markets are famously speculative, and many people in China have assured me that this is because for cultural reasons Chinese are inveterate gamblers. Strangely enough these are often the same people who insist that China’s very high savings rates are also explained by Chinese culture.

Key southern cities leading property sales rally

The three cities that led the downturn in the mainland property market last year - Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Xiamen - are now leading the recovery in the market, analysts say.

How China became America’s banker

It took just three decades for China to transform itself from an economic backwater into America’s banker.

Greentown and China’s Real Estate Rescue

The property market bubble burst last year, but developers are still afloat thanks to governments, banks and a ‘subprime’ solution.

Big shoes to fill in frayed supply chain

Sector tries to cope as sluggish orders leave players high and dry

BAIC may consider bid for GM’s Saab


Swedish unit might tempt after Opel slip

Saturday, 6 June 2009

In honour of a deified general


A large paper-cut piece of Guan Gong has been created by Chinese paper-cut lover Gao Xiaodong in Hejin, in Shanxi province.

He spent nine months making 'Profile of Guan Gong', which measures 13m by 8m. Guan Gong is the deified image of general Guan Yu from the Three Kingdoms Period in Chinese history.

5 in the running for Ferrari dealership

They include Ong Beng Seng, incumbent Hong Seh and other sports-car dealers

Debunking China myths

Old myths co-exist with new realities, and unravelling the two presents a major challenge to Westerners.

Thursday, 4 June 2009

Signs of recovery driven by liquidity, not return to normality

In other words, we are nowhere near back to normality, whatever the headlines might indicate, and the current bull market in stocks looks vulnerable to a correction should anything happen to knock a hole in investors’ sentiment.

UBS sees Asia markets rallying in second half

“I certainly believe a turnaround will take place in the second half, as investors are increasing their risk appetite, encouraging them to put more money in the equity market,” said David Chin, a co-head of investment banking at UBS Asia.

Wednesday, 3 June 2009

Morgan Stanley raised China Stocks to “Neutral”

China stocks were upgraded to “neutral” at Morgan Stanley, which said the growth in liquidity globally is boosting asset prices.

S&P 500’s Rise Past 200-Day Average Signals Gains

The rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index above its 200-day moving average is sending a bullish signal after the measure traded below the level for the longest period since the 1930s.

Tougher action needed on errant S-chips

SGX should enlist China’s help and tighten own listing framework

Tuesday, 2 June 2009

S&P 500 Rally Is in Last Stages, Aurel Says: Technical Analysis

The two-month rally in U.S. stocks is in its final stages and a correction will take place in the coming weeks, according to a technical analyst at Aurel BGC.

Technical Analyst Michael Krauss on S&P 500

S+P 500 Breakout from May’s Range Seeks Our 950-1000 Pre-Summer Target

Monday, 1 June 2009

‘The trend is your friend - until it bends’

Cast a stone at random into a crowd of stock market enthusiasts and chances are it would land on someone who might confess to being somewhat bewildered by the strength and endurance of the present rally.

Struggling GM thrives in China

It is achieving record sales there and may export to the US

Decades of mistakes, missteps led to downfall

The downfall of General Motors (GM) comes after decades of mistakes and missteps chipped away at the reputation and market share of the once mighty carmaker and buried the Detroit giant in debt.

Xtep stays a step ahead of the rest



Though most of the panic-stricken Chinese shoemakers call the ongoing global economic crisis the worst ever in their career, others like Ding Shuibo are optimistic.

Regulate with a Big Stick, Not a Fly Swatter

China’s securities regulators should focus on sound oversight and tough discipline to protect, not merely stabilize, the market.

Personal Ties Turn Bitter for Sinolink Chief

A suspicious trail led investigators from key figures at the China Securities Regulatory Commission straight to Sinolink’s Lei Bo.

IPO Reforms No Guarantee of Market-Oriented Share Issues

The IPO reforms feature auction-based share issues intended to give small investors a better chance and reducing the disparity between share offer prices and the prices achieved on the first day of trading.

June 4 a closed book for many bright young minds

“Fear lies only in your heart and if you ignore it, it will disappear,” he said.

Will today’s students remember?


Keeping memories of June 4 alive is a challenge

Saturday, 30 May 2009

Couple found guilty of sending out seditious tracts


A christian couple who mass-mailed evangelical tracts to the public for many years were yesterday found guilty of distributing seditious or objectionable publications to three Muslims.

THEN: Hotshot investment manager, NOW: Fund sues him over FerroChina losses


The fallout from the sudden collapse of debt-laden, Singapore-listed Chinese steel coil-maker FerroChina last October has spread to affect former hotshot investment manager Lee Chong Min.

Tuesday, 26 May 2009

Confessions of Chinese Derivatives Deals, Part 3

In this latest instalment, a former investment banker tells how ‘accumulators’ favoured banks at the expense of Chinese clients.

Efficiency’s Urgent Cry for Attention

China’s economy has squeezed a lot of growth out of liquidity, exports and new infrastructure. It’s time to embrace efficiency.

New Nail in the Decoupling Theory Coffin

GDP and industrial production data proves that emerging markets grow in tandem with the developed world – and a lot faster.

CFA much-coveted title despite market collapse

Robert Johnson says non-finance professionals boost demand

Flu outbreak shows importance of giving up smoking

The Department of Health said on Monday the outbreak of human swine influenza had reiterated the need for Hong Kong people to give up smoking.

Hongxing aims to beat foreign players in sportswear sector

China Hongxing Sports, the mainland’s leading sportswear maker, aims to grab a 15 per cent share of the domestic market, as it is confident of getting ahead of foreign rivals in expanding its sales network.

In land of consumers, children are kings

The nation’s little emperors and empresses constitute a sector that can fast-track economic recovery

IPO move may spark sell-off on mainland

Price dilution from fresh listings feared

Liquidity inflow might keep market buoyant

The price of Hong Kong-listed blue chips has soared over the past two months, but investors may still be willing to pay for the mark-up in hopes that recent inflows of liquidity will drive further market gains.

Short-selling fines: are criticisms unjustified?

Judging by recent reports, the Singapore Exchange’s fines for open short-sold positions (or ‘naked’ shorts) introduced last September are considered draconian, inflicting inordinate pain on ignorant - sometimes careless but mainly innocent - retail players.

Shanghai in bid to shake off its negative image

After decades of putting up with criticism and ridicule from other parts of the mainland, the largest city has spoken out against its detractors. A survey sponsored by the local government and conducted by one of its affiliated think-tanks lashes out at the stereotyping of Shanghainese as stingy, arrogant and henpecked.

Don’t single out S-chips

Singapore-listed Chinese stocks, or S-chips, as the market calls them, should not be singled out as the problem child of the stock exchange.

Well-governed S-chips urged to speak up for themselves

They will benefit as investors gain confidence to buy into their stocks

White-collar job market picking up on mainland

The mainland’s white-collar job market is bottoming out amid the global economic crisis, with hiring picking up in certain sectors, say experts.

Sunday, 24 May 2009

Flyers with Lee Bee Wah’s face printed on toilet bowl pasted at BBQ pit outside Nee Soon South RC

A tricky derivative for the market’s ups and downs


Alan Alanson deciphers the callable bull/bear contract in the first of a new series as Road Warrior takes a break