• Too little, too late. These cuts should have been a month or two ago before the cumulative data showing that we are in the midst of a deepening global recession.
• Q3/Q4 corporate reports are going to be ugly.
• The central banks have coordinated on rate cuts for the first time since November 2001. Unfortunately, they are giving cold medicine to a patient with pneumonia. They have to do more; and, it will be necessary for the G-7 ministers to announce this weekend that they are willing to pull out all stops.
• The cumulative effect of rate cuts and other central bank/government actions will be positive; but, it will take a while and a Dow at 8000-8500 before we see recovery. This assumes the oil price drops to $75 and will weigh heavily on the oils in the Dow and S&P 500.
• Commodity prices will fall further into Q1/2009.
• The cathartic event for the US will be November 4, if the Democrats have 60 seats in the Senate.
• Europe is in disarray -- given the Dublin-led deposit security decision that showed signs of a beggar-thy-neighbor approach and was picked up by others. That’s because the ECB, that needs to cut rates to 2% -- has been too hard-headed about inflation (Rome burned while....).
• Too little, too late. These cuts should have been a month or two ago before the cumulative data showing that we are in the midst of a deepening global recession.
ReplyDelete• Q3/Q4 corporate reports are going to be ugly.
• The central banks have coordinated on rate cuts for the first time since November 2001. Unfortunately, they are giving cold medicine to a patient with pneumonia. They have to do more; and, it will be necessary for the G-7 ministers to announce this weekend that they are willing to pull out all stops.
• The cumulative effect of rate cuts and other central bank/government actions will be positive; but, it will take a while and a Dow at 8000-8500 before we see recovery. This assumes the oil price drops to $75 and will weigh heavily on the oils in the Dow and S&P 500.
• Commodity prices will fall further into Q1/2009.
• The cathartic event for the US will be November 4, if the Democrats have 60 seats in the Senate.
• Europe is in disarray -- given the Dublin-led deposit security decision that showed signs of a beggar-thy-neighbor approach and was picked up by others. That’s because the ECB, that needs to cut rates to 2% -- has been too hard-headed about inflation (Rome burned while....).